Brazil is Funding Russia’s War and Reducing Their Own Inflation by Buying Massive Amounts of Cheap Russian Diesel, Wheat, and Fertilizers: Lula’s De Facto Pro-Russian Stance is Aiding Sanctions Evasion

     As I have noted before, China and India have been profiting quite well from the Russia-Ukraine war by buying massive quantities of cheap Russian oil, but they are not the only ones. Brazil has drastically increased its purchases of Russian diesel and wheat since the start of the war, a slap in the face to all who are working to limit Russian imperialism via sanctions. These countries profiting from war, funding a cruel war machine, and undermining sanctions should be called out by the rest of the international order. While Lula says he now favors democracy, he has long favored a socialist approach and is among the most powerful Latin American socialist-leaning leaders. Such leaders often have a pro-Russia stance, since their forebears, the Soviet Union, was the once great communist/socialist empire. In 2009, during his first run as president, he and Putin were instrumental in forming BRICS, an economic alliance with a goal in part to address dissatisfaction with and a challenge to the Western democratic order. George Washington University’s Laura Trajber Waisbich wrote that:

“…geopolitics have brought both countries together in a shared unease with (and, in the Russian case, in open opposition to) a Western-dominated world that both consider, albeit in different ways and degrees, unfair.”

     Under the leadership of far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil emphasized economic ties to Russia, rather than ideological ones. Russia has invested more in Brazil than Brazil in Russia. Fertilizers and their logistics and supply chains is a major area of Russian investment in Brazil as is technological cooperation in the oil & gas sector.

     Waisbich also notes the views of Brazilians about the Russia-Ukraine war via polling:

“70% of surveyed Brazilians believe their country should avoid getting involved in this conflict, either by supporting Ukraine militarily or economically boycotting Russia.”

“The poll also shows comparatively low agreement in Brazil over openly supporting Ukraine in the war (56% among Brazilians versus 81% in India and the UK) but comparatively high agreement (79%) with giving Ukrainians asylum in Brazil, among the higher rates of support across all countries surveyed and the highest among non-European countries (Ipsos 2023).”

She also stresses that Brazil has remained less aligned with Russia’s interests than China and India. However, she does not really explain why Brazil is dissatisfied with the Western-led order, not just on the left but among most Brazilian political parties.

     According to Ambassador of Ukraine to Brazil Andrii Melnyk, Russia-Brazil cooperation has become more economically strategic since the war began in February 2022.

“In my opinion, we should always be realistic and set ourselves realistic goals. Today, the truth is that Brazil's political beau monde, and I mean not only the current leftist government, but the entire political elite in general, does not see any benefit in developing relations with Ukraine. We are not among their priorities, neither in terms of geopolitics, nor in terms of economy and trade," the Ambassador said.”

Since the advent of the war, Russia has become one of Brazil’s largest suppliers of diesel and mineral fertilizers.

"As of today, Russia has become a de facto monopolist in diesel imports. Its share in the Brazilian market is 65% of all diesel imports. Just think about it - 65% is two-thirds! Before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, this share was less than 1% in 2021," the diplomat said.

“In his opinion, thanks to dumping prices due to Western sanctions, the Russians were able to push the Americans out of the Brazilian market. Currently, the US market share in Brazil is only 15%.”

"Brazil paid Russia almost $10 billion for 6.5 million tons of diesel. In other words, for comparison, it is about one-tenth of the total defense budget of Russia. With this money, the Kremlin can finance its military campaign against Ukraine for more than a month. This is our vision of diesel supplies," the Ambassador said.”

The cheap diesel, made cheap by Western sanctions against Russia, is helping Brazil fight inflation. Thus, Brazil and Brazilians are profiting or otherwise benefiting from these sanctions as well as undermining their effects on Russia. The ambassador called it “diesel diplomacy” as Lula seeks to curb inflation ahead of a parliamentary vote in the fall. His key constituents are Brazil’s poorer residents, who benefit the most from low prices. To Lula and Brazil, sanctions undermining is both profitable and politically expedient, at the expense of the goal of undermining Russian imperialism.

“He noted that a similar situation is observed concerning wheat imports: during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the volume of supplies from Russia to Brazil increased thirtyfold: from 28,000 tons in 2021 to 900,000 tons in 2023.”

“According to the Ambassador, the Russians are now in second place among suppliers after Argentina and occupy more than 20% of the Brazilian market. And all thanks to significant discounts, about $60 per ton, which Russia has offered to its Brazilian allies since 2022.”

"Not to mention the fact that Russia has been and remains a key player in the import of mineral fertilizers, which affect the yields and profits of the agro-industrial complex (its market share ranges between 20 and 25%, with a value of about $4 billion a year). I don't remember a single meeting with Brazilian politicians who didn't mention the importance of Russian fertilizers," the Ambassador emphasized.”

     Thus, it is clearly a case of shameless war profiteering and sanctions undermining. I wonder how much of that wheat is coming from Russian-occupied Ukraine.

     In April 2023, Lula condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but later said that Ukraine should make concessions. He also prevented any statement from the G20 meeting in Brazil about condemning the invasion. Lula has several black marks from his political past in supporting radical and authoritarian Latin American communist and socialist leaders such as Cuba’s Castro and Venezuela’s Chavez and Maduro. While I am no fan of Bolsonaro and the far-right, I am also no fan of Lula.

 

     

 

References:

 

Ukraine's Ambassador explains Brazil's rapid rapprochement with Russia. Liliana Oleniak. RBC Ukraine. May 5, 2025. Ukraine's Ambassador explains Brazil's rapid rapprochement with Russia

Brazil-Russia relations since 2022: Strategic partners without a strategic partnership? Laura Trajber  Waisbich. The Russia Program. George Washington University. Brazil-Russia relations since 2022: Strategic partners without a strategic partnership?