Blog Archive

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Current and Forecasted Market Capitalization of Selected New and Emerging Technologies: AI, Quantum Tech, 6G, Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing), Computational Fluid Dynamics, and Automation/Robotics


     I was curious about this, so I did some quick research to estimate comparative market caps for these new technologies. AI dominates, with a current market cap estimated at $53 trillion. The AI market cap is about 36 times the next highest market cap, which is automation and robotics. AI market cap is about 2600 times that of the lowest on the list, which is quantum computing technology, a newer, currently less applicable, and less developed technology.

     The second-highest tech market cap is automation and robotics, which is about 5 times that of additive manufacturing. Estimates vary widely for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and 6G.

     It should be noted that these technologies are often used together.

     Additive manufacturing is expected to grow by about 6 times over the next decade, computational fluid dynamics by 2 times, and 6G by about 12 times. AI and automation growth will likely grow much faster than these, but I didn’t find readily available data for them. AI is the future, at least for now, followed by automation and robotics, additive manufacturing, 6G, CFD, and quantum tech.




  


Methylsiloxanes Found to Be One of the Most Common Synthetic Chemicals in Air Pollution: Engine Lubricants Were Found to Be the Source of Most of Them


   

     New research has confirmed that methylsiloxanes, a group of silicone-based chemicals, are one of the most common synthetic chemicals found in air pollution. Researchers from Utrecht University and the University of Groningen published the findings in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. They measured high levels of the chemicals across Europe and South America. Methylsiloxanes are common ingredients in personal care products, industrial materials, household goods, and lubricating oils. The study found that vehicle and ship exhaust release more methylsiloxanes than previously thought. The researchers estimated that methylsiloxanes account for about 2% to 4.3% of organic aerosols in the atmosphere, making them among the most common synthetic materials found in air pollution. Urban areas were found to have higher levels of the chemicals. The levels of these chemicals in the air exceed those of PFAS, microplastics, and nanoplastics.




     Methylsiloxanes are chemically stable, which keeps them accumulating in the air. Not much is known about their health effects. The study suggests that over half of methylsiloxanes may be coming from vehicle exhaust. More research is needed to determine how long they remain in the air and the effects of long-term exposure.




     According to The Business Standard:

Researchers explained that engine lubricants containing methylsiloxanes can enter combustion chambers during vehicle operation. Because the compounds are highly heat-resistant, they do not fully break down and are released into the air through exhaust emissions.”

     Methylsiloxanes can modify aerosol surface tension, influencing how aerosols affect cloud formation. They may also interfere with ice nucleation, which also affects cloud formation and other atmospheric processes. In turn, they may also affect climate change. The paper notes:

Their surface-tension-lowering and antifreezing properties may further influence the physical behavior and climatic effects of aerosols.”

The researchers found that large molecular methylsiloxanes have a similar dispersion pattern to long-chain hydrocarbons, which are commonly present in engine oil. These similarities strongly suggest that the compounds share the same emission source, which is engine oil lubricants.

     According to Phys.org:

Interestingly, the concentration of these long-chain hydrocarbons does decrease strongly during atmospheric transport and dilution, whereas the concentration of methylsiloxane does not. In fact, a substantial fraction persists as large molecular methylsiloxanes. According to the researchers, this underscores that large molecular methylsiloxanes are chemically very stable and likely to be transported over long distances.”

     The methylsiloxanes were detected via thermal-desorption proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry. The lower concentrations found in rural areas and forests suggest that dilution occurs with transport, as would be expected.




 

References:

 

Scientists discover little-known pollutant now widespread in the air. Hope Nguyen. The Cool Down. May 14, 2026. Scientists discover little-known pollutant now widespread in the air

Scientists find widespread silicone pollutant in air, raising health and climate concerns. The Business Standard. May 13, 2026. Scientists find widespread silicone pollutant in air, raising health and climate concerns | The Business Standard

A newly recognized pollutant is widely present in the atmosphere. Utrecht University. edited by Stephanie Baum, reviewed by Robert Egan. Phys.org. April 16, 2026. A newly recognized pollutant is widely present in the atmosphere

Widespread occurrence of large molecular methylsiloxanes in ambient aerosols. Peng Yao, Rupert Holzinger, Beatriz Sayuri Oyama, Agne Masalaite, Dipayan Paul, Haiyan Ni, Hanne Noto, Dušan Materić, Maria de Fátima Andrade, Ru-Jin Huang, and Ulrike Dusek. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics. Volume 26, issue 7. ACP, 26, 5005–5018, 2026. ACP - Widespread occurrence of large molecular methylsiloxanes in ambient aerosols

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Aerosol Particles, Partly from Coal Pollution, Block Sunlight and Reduce PV Solar Output: New Study Quantifies the Effects


      The University of Oxford and University College London (UCL) recently conducted and published new research assessing and mapping more than 140,000 solar photovoltaic (solar PV) installations around the world. The results were published in the journal Nature Sustainability. They used satellite and atmospheric data on air pollution to calculate how much sunlight is lost from pollution aerosol particles and how this reduces electricity generation. They found that pollution from coal-fired power plants “significantly reduces” the energy output of solar PV installations, particularly where the coal and solar facilities are close together. They found that the aerosol particles suspended in the air reduced global solar electricity by 5.8% in 2023. They compared the losses of electricity output to the level of new output for the year for newly built facilities and found that the lost output (74TWh) was nearly one-third the new output average for the years 2017-2023 (246.6TWh).

     According to Euro News:

Coal plants emit fine pollution particles that scatter and absorb sunlight, which reduces the amount that reaches nearby solar panels. Dr Song explains that air pollution doesn’t just block sunlight, but also changes clouds which can cut solar power even further.”

That means the real impact is likely to be bigger than we’ve measured, so we may be overestimating how much solar power can contribute to reducing emissions if we do not get pollution from coal power under control,” he adds.

This effect was particularly evident in China, where solar and coal capacity have expanded in parallel and are often co-located. Regions with high coal capacity aligned closely with areas experiencing the greatest solar PV losses.”

     The coal plant image given in the Euro News article is one that is close to where I live in Southeast Ohio, although I am happily upwind of it. I may even be powered by it, I am not sure.




     China is the world's largest solar energy producer as well as the world’s largest coal energy producer, and the co-location of these plants there has especially blocked solar output. This is likely a factor why Chinese solar efficiency is lower than the global average. The researchers found that Chinese solar output dropped by 7.7% due to aerosols compared to the global average of 5.8%. They estimate that 29% of aerosol-related solar PV losses in China come specifically from coal-fired power plants.




     Phys.org explains that the global solar output losses in 2023 due to aerosols amount to 111TWh, equivalent to the output of 18 medium-sized coal-fired power plants. Stricter emissions standards from coal plants and retrofitting plants with ultra-low emissions (ULE) technologies have led to less aerosol-related losses in China:

Aerosol-related solar PV losses declined by an average of 0.96 TWh per year (−1.4% annually) between 2013 and 2023.”

     This suggests that aerosol losses were previously above 10% in China.

     Satellite imagery and machine learning were employed in the study. Author Professor Jan-Peter Muller (Mullard Space Science Laboratory at UCL) said:

"Global satellite imaging enabled us to map the inexorable rise of cheap non-polluting solar power during daylight hours. In the near future, we will be able to observe the impacts of dust and smoke particles on reducing solar energy at Earth's surface in real-time every 10 minutes from geostationary satellites spanning Earth."













     The results show that modeled solar output is often overestimated due to not taking the effects of aerosols into account.

  


References:

 

Blocked sunlight and changing clouds: How coal pollution is damaging our solar potential. Liam Gilliver. Euro News. May 15, 2026. Blocked sunlight and changing clouds: How coal pollution is damaging our solar potential

Coal pollution is cutting solar power output worldwide, study finds. Science X staff. Phys.org. May 15, 2026. Coal pollution is cutting solar power output worldwide, study finds

Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition. Rui Song, Feng Yin, Jan-Peter Muller, Adam C. Povey, Basudev Swain, Chenchen Huang & Roy G. Grainger. Nature Sustainability. May 15, 2026. Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition | Nature Sustainability

Monday, May 18, 2026

Part 5 – Trade Promotes Peace ---- Trade Enriches, Promotes Trust, Honesty, Fairness, Tolerance, and Peace: Summary & Review of Five Essays by Walker Wright for Human Progress


     Walker Wright is a think tank policy manager with a forthcoming book, In Trade We Trust: How Commerce Makes Us More Social, which will be published by Bloomsbury. Over the past several months, he has posted five essays exploring different aspects of trade and how it benefits societies. I will summarize and review each essay in sequence. This is Part 5 of 5.

 

Make Trade, Not War: How Capitalism Creates Peace: Open markets lead to closed battlefields

     This essay shows that commerce promotes peace. Trade strengthens economic interdependence, so the choice to hurt a perceived enemy will result in hurting oneself as well, which deters attacking them.

Distrust, corruption, unfairness, and intolerance can often erupt into violence. By undermining these less-than-desirable attitudes and behaviors, trade can help reduce violence as well. But it may be even more straightforward than that: it’s simply not a good idea to maim or kill your customers or suppliers. War is bad for business.”

     Wright cites economist Christopher Blattman and his book Why We Fight, which argues that while economic interdependence doesn’t eliminate the risk of war, it does create powerful incentives that have to be overcome if war is to happen. He also cites Stephen Pinker’s book, The Better Angels of Our Nature, which shows clearly that global violence has been reduced to a fraction of what it once was. This resulted in the idea of democratic peace theory, which simply acknowledges that democracies promote peace. Trust in the institution of democracy fosters trust among different democracies. Pinker notes that this is because democratic countries are more accountable to their people.

     Wright notes that more recent research suggests that markets may play a bigger role than previously recognized in promoting peace. This acknowledgement has resulted in the development of the idea of a capitalist peace theory. It should be noted that democratic peace theory and capitalist peace theory are not mutually exclusive but work together. Economic interdependence is “part of the glue that cements the ‘liberal peace’ together.” The two graphs below show simply that growth in trade correlates with fewer wars.




     On the other hand, trade restrictions increase economic isolation, which breeds distrust and may lead to hatred and war. As scholars Jean-Frédéric Morin & Jonathan Paquin put it:

“The positive relationship between economic interdependence and peaceful relationships is so well established that research now focuses on the conditions that cause variations.”

     One study in the Journal of Conflict Resolution concluded that trade in manufactured goods had a stronger effect in mitigating war risks than trade in agricultural goods and raw materials. Other studies suggest that trade can also reduce the risk of civil wars. One study demonstrated that “secure property rights, high-quality legal institutions, sound money, and free trade lower the probability of civil war.” Civil wars often occur among isolated ethnic groups, and an important means to reduce isolation is to trade, which reduces economic isolation.

     Wright notes some other interesting work by economist Don Lavoie, who noted that the militarization of economies increases war risks.

Militarized central planners tend to wage war on their own citizens. Crucially, trade openness acts as a check on this central power, keeping potentially violent governments at bay.”



     One need only consider the militarized economies of Russia and Iran. Russia engages in imperialistic invasions and has recently militarized its economy to extremes. In tandem, human rights and economic opportunities have been severely limited for its citizens. Of course, sanctions are one cause of this, but the Russian government is fully willing to endure sanctions, which limit its economic engagement around the world and degrade its economy, for its ill-conceived war aims. Iran is a different situation, but the country has spent its entire existence militarizing and preparing for war, both at home and with its regional military proxies. Both Russia and Iran have put severe restrictions on internet freedom and availability. We all know that no good can come from this.

     Other researchers have shown that economic interdependence reduces the risks of genocide and promotes human rights and tolerance.

Political scientist Clair Apodaca has also shown trade to be “advantageous to guaranteeing human rights,” with foreign direct investment being “favorable for human rights.” Emilie M. Hafner-Burton of UC San Diego summarized the state of the scholarship well: “One of the key discoveries of the past few decades is that it is possible to promote human rights by encouraging economic openness and growth through trade and investment…Market-oriented economic development…is correlated with better protections for human rights.”

     Wright also notes that the association between increased trade and peace has been known and recognized for a long time:

Over two centuries ago, German philosopher Immanuel Kant wrote, “The spirit of trade cannot coexist with war, and sooner or later this spirit dominates every people. For among all those powers (or means) that belong to a nation, financial power may be the most reliable in forcing nations to pursue the noble cause of peace.

     He also quotes Thomas Paine, who argued that commerce is:

a pacific system, operating to unite mankind, by rendering nations, as well as individuals, useful to each other…If commerce were permitted to act to the universal extent it is capable of, it would extirpate the system of war, and produce a revolution in the uncivilized state of governments.”


Final Thoughts on This Series of Essays

     Some of my final thoughts on this series of essays would be that while some people may slip through the cracks and not benefit as much by trade as others, if there were less or no trade, there would be no cracks to slip through, as we would all be on the bottom. Anti-capitalists may not want to acknowledge it, but the evidence-based science clearly shows the vast benefits of the synonyms trade, commerce, capitalism, and free markets. Essentially, being anti-capitalist is nearly equivalent to being anti-wealth, anti-trust, anti-honesty, anti-fairness, anti-tolerance, and anti-peace. Thus, one might say it is basically dumb. As these essays show, it is also anti-science. Thus, I would say to political Progressives and socialists, including Democratic Socialists, that the evidence is clearly against your positions and very strongly so. That is not to say we don’t need social welfare, guardrails, regulations, checks and balances, and other means to foster equality. But to say, as many do, that capitalism is the cause of all the problems in the world is to turn things totally upside down. In fact, it has probably done more to prevent and solve problems in the world than any other human idea. 

     I look forward to reading Wright's book, but alas, I may not be able to afford to buy it, since I am living on a limited income at present. Of course, I am not blaming capitalism for my plight since I know I have benefited from it massively over the years. 

     

 

References:

 

Make Trade, Not War: How Capitalism Creates Peace: Open markets lead to closed battlefields. Walker Wright, HumanProgress.org. May 15, 2026. Make Trade, Not War: How Capitalism Creates Peace - Human Progress

.

Part 4 – Trade Promotes Fairness ---- Trade Enriches, Promotes Trust, Honesty, Fairness, Tolerance, and Peace: Summary & Review of Five Essays by Walker Wright for Human Progress


     Walker Wright is a think tank policy manager with a forthcoming book, In Trade We Trust: How Commerce Makes Us More Social, which will be published by Bloomsbury. Over the past several months, he has posted five essays exploring different aspects of trade and how it benefits societies. I will summarize and review each essay in sequence. This is Part 4 of 5.

 

Free Trade Is Fairer Than You Think: Capitalism fosters impartiality, not unfairness

     This essay asserts that trade fosters fairness and impartiality. He says that the same is true of globalization. The French philosopher Montesquieu wrote, “The spirit of commerce produces in men a certain feeling for exact justice.” He also noted that trade trains us to be fair.

     Wright cites experiments like the Ultimatum Game, where “two participants are provided a specific sum of money. One participant is granted the power to divide the sum between the two. If the other player accepts the division—whether it is 50:50 or 99:1—both players keep their share. If the receiver rejects the offer, both go home empty-handed.

     Researchers have found that societies that don’t trade with outsiders offer more inequitable deals, while trading societies offer deals that are fairer and more equitable. Some researchers altered the game so that there is no option to reject the offer, which has become known as the Dictator Game. Similar results were obtained, showing that:

Even when fairness and generosity have no strategic payoff, market integration predicts more equal treatment.”



     This tendency may explain why economic freedom also correlates strongly with democratic governance and indeed may be a prerequisite for democracy.


     

     Conversely, economic restrictions often precede actions that move away from democracy, such as restrictions on civil liberties and political freedom.

     AEI’s Michael Strain has noted that populism and economic nationalism have been associated with distrust of liberal democracy. Strain writes:

It is no surprise that the rise of populism and economic nationalism has coincided with growing skepticism toward liberal democracy and growing comfort with political violence. The erosion of economic liberalism – free people, free markets, limited government, openness, global commerce – reflects a loss of respect for the choices people make in the marketplace. If we devalue choices made in markets, why wouldn’t we devalue choices made at the ballot box?

     As the graph below clearly shows, economic freedom and personal freedom go hand-in-hand.




     Wright next explores how free trade fosters gender equality. He cites a study that showed that societies integrated into economic globalization correlate positively with better status and rights for women. While people may cite bad situations for women workers, such as the so-called “sweatshops” that exist in the world, studies have shown that free trade and globalization actually reduce these occurrences, though it may take some time.

Political scientists Eric Neumayer and Indra de Soysa have shown that increased trade openness reduces forced labor among women and increases their economic rights, including equal pay for equal work, equality in hiring and promotion practices, and the right to gainful employment without the permission of a husband or male relative.”

     They also found that freer trade:

“…improves both economic and social rights, including the right to initiate divorce, the right to an education, and freedom from forced sterilization and female genital mutilation.”

     Below, a graph from a study published in the journal International Organization found that free trade led to “improvements in women’s health, literacy, and economic and political participation.”




     Wright concludes:

Unfairness is one of the most common criticisms leveled against commercial society, often accompanied by claims that it undermines democracy and fosters partiality. The evidence presented here suggests the opposite. Engaging in trade and market exchange teaches us to treat others more generously and impartially. The natural outcome of these values is the institutional protection of certain rights. Fair treatment for all becomes the name of the game. We begin to trust one another’s choices and to believe in our shared ability to build society together.”

    

 

References:

 

Free Trade Is Fairer Than You Think: Capitalism fosters impartiality, not unfairness. Walker Wright. HumanProgress.org. January 22, 2026. Free Trade Is Fairer Than You Think - Human Progress

Part 3 – Trade Promotes Honesty ---- Trade Enriches, Promotes Trust, Honesty, Fairness, Tolerance, and Peace: Summary & Review of Five Essays by Walker Wright for Human Progress


  Walker Wright is a think tank policy manager with a forthcoming book, In Trade We Trust: How Commerce Makes Us More Social, which will be published by Bloomsbury. Over the past several months, he has posted five essays exploring different aspects of trade and how it benefits societies. I will summarize and review each essay in sequence. This is Part 3 of 5.

 

Why Free Economies Are Honest Economies: Market freedom rewards honesty. Regulation breeds corruption

     Honesty is related to trust, and societies that foster trust also foster honesty. Dishonesty breeds distrust and can damage social cohesion. Wright states that frequent exchange fosters mutual accountability. He notes that Adam Smith recognized that honesty and free commerce are mutually supportive and that familiarity with one another reduces cheating. He says that there is plenty of evidence that shows:

“…repeated dealings and fear of reputational damage incentivize honest behavior.”

     He shows that lab experiments support the notion that commerciality breeds honesty and shows who is trustworthy and who is not. This is because dishonesty is punished in the marketplace. Experiments have also shown that competition improves not only efficiency but also trust. Honesty is generally rewarded in trade, which makes honesty become habitual. In showing the opposite, that trade restrictions promote dishonesty, he cites Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), which measures the perceived levels of public sector corruption across numerous countries using multiple surveys of businesspeople and experts. Trade restrictions can be a strong indicator of corruption. It has also become more widely acknowledged that electronic and digital means of regulatory compliance have led to less bribery and corruption. He cites other studies that confirm that unrestricted and less regulated trade leads to less corruption.

It appears that the friendlier a nation’s economy is to trade, the less corrupt it tends to be. Economic restrictions and regulations allow corruption to grow, instead of the economy. By reducing barriers, more trade is unleashed...”

     The graph below compares economic freedom to corruption and clearly shows that more economic freedom goes hand in hand with less corruption. Trade openness is one aspect of economic freedom.




Freer trade makes reputation king, mitigating corrupt incentives and embedding honest norms throughout society.”

     He cites a famous study of East Germans under communism, which had severe trade restrictions compared to capitalist West Germans, in a game where the East Germans were found to be much more likely to cheat. He cites another study that found:

More than double the number of nonmarket residents versus market residents believe that avoiding fares on public transport, cheating on taxes, and bribery are justifiable. Those from nonmarket societies are also more accepting of theft compared to those from market societies.”




     Thinking about this, it may have something to do with disposable income as well. People with more disposable income are more likely to avoid cheating to save money simply because they have more money. Thus, one might say that the poor are more likely to cheat simply because they need to preserve cash flow.

     A 2023 study concluded that there is “a universal association between markets and morality” and “a robust association between an increase in market exposure and an increase in civic morality.”

     A study of corruption in different parts of China found that deregulation and trade reduce corruption. That study concluded that:

“…a 1 percent increase in the marketization index leads to a 2.72 percent reduction in corruption. Regions that increased trade openness by 1 percent experienced a 0.35 percent reduction in corruption.”

     Wright notes that removing trade barriers leads to more commerce, where more people put their trustworthy reputations on the line, thus preserving those reputations.

A commercial society is, at its core, a society of integrity: it limits the opportunities for corruption and encourages honest behavior in the process.”

     He summarizes this essay as follows:

Many people assume that markets breed dishonesty, but the opposite is true. Commerce depends on trust. Repeated exchange and reputation make honesty not just virtuous, but profitable. When trade is open and competition thrives, deceit is punished and integrity is rewarded. By contrast, heavy regulation invites corruption and favoritism. A truly commercial society, grounded in voluntary exchange and mutual accountability, is also a more honest and trustworthy one.”


 

References:


Why Free Economies Are Honest Economies: Market freedom rewards honesty. Regulation breeds corruption. Walker Wright. HumanProgress.org. December 5, 2025. Why Free Economies Are Honest Economies - Human Progress

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Part 2 – Trade Promotes Trust ---- Trade Enriches, Promotes Trust, Honesty, Fairness, Tolerance, and Peace: Summary & Review of Five Essays by Walker Wright for Human Progress


     Walker Wright is a think tank policy manager with a forthcoming book, In Trade We Trust: How Commerce Makes Us More Social, which will be published by Bloomsbury. Over the past several months, he has posted five essays exploring different aspects of trade and how it benefits societies. I will summarize and review each essay in sequence. This is Part 2 of 5. 

     This essay explores how trade promotes trust and how it increases social capital in addition to increasing economic capital. He summarizes the issue as follows:

“…trade depends on trust, and commercial societies encourage people to extend trust beyond family and friends to strangers and colleagues. Experiments and cross-country studies show that economic freedom fosters cooperation, honesty, and reciprocity.”

     Trust is, of course, stronger among people with close social bonds, from family and close friends, and tends to weaken outward. Below is a graph from a study by Virgil Henry Storr and Ginny Choithat that compares trust among family, neighbors, known associates, and people met for the first time in market and non-market economies. Both economies show less trust in less close relationships as expected, but it also suggests that market economies have better trust networks than non-market economies, not by a lot, but consistently.




     Wright cites the work of the American economist Ryan Murphy of the Bridwell Institute. Murphy distinguishes two kinds of social capital: bonding social capital and bridging social capital.

Bonding social capital refers to what increases the bond of affection with those in our inner circle, such as our family and friends. Bridging social capital refers to what builds social bridges, expanding our social network to those outside our inner circle. Too much bonding can interfere with bridge-building and can even burn bridges, creating a host of problems such as corruption and hostility toward out-groups. Trade acts as a social bridge. And a trade society is one full of social bridges.”

     He also cites other studies that corroborate the increased level of trust found in market-based economies. A graph from one of those is shown below, comparing economic freedom and trust.




     Below, Wright explains that experiments as well as surveys have shown the same result: that trade fosters trust.

The results of various laboratory experiments by Storr and Choi are telling. In studies published between 2018 and 2022, the two researchers demonstrate that in markets where cheating is possible, participants learn to reward trustworthy partners with greater trust and reciprocity (measured through token transfers). Those with positive market interactions received significantly more tokens than cheaters. What’s more, even strangers received more tokens than cheaters. In experiments where cheating was prevented or its effect neutralized, positive relationships were treated similarly to relationships between strangers. Storr and Choi stressed that participants knew nothing about each other and could not communicate beyond offers. That means the relationships were purely commercial, with no distortions stemming from race, sex, religion, or the like. In short, when corruption and dishonesty are absent from the marketplace, trust and equal treatment emerge. When dishonesty is a factor (as it is in the real world), trustworthiness is incentivized, and dishonesty is stigmatized. Positive market transactions breed trust and trustworthiness.”

     He cites experimental results by other researchers that suggest that a “market mindset” makes people more trusting of others. In a sense, the act of trading is pro-social and helps us to become closer to strangers since we have a reciprocal relationship with them. This also helps strangers become more familiar, which, as the word implies, means more like family and less like strangers. People become more optimistic regarding their relationship and less suspicious of one another.

     Wright cites other experiments that suggest internet businesspeople and CEOs have higher levels of trust and are considered more trustworthy, even though some like to characterize CEOs as greedy and indifferent.

     He concludes:

The fact that the commercial society exists should be awe-inspiring. The absolute scale of trust and cooperation is incredible. But markets aren’t magical. They are spaces in which people engage in repeated trade, where individuals learn to consistently rely on and cooperate with each other. As people demonstrate a pattern of trustworthy behavior, exchange becomes more fluid, and trust becomes more concrete. Long-term success in the market depends partly on developing strong bonds of trust. And this practical necessity for economic success can eventually develop into a personal virtue.”

 

   

References:

 

In Trade We Trust: How Markets Build Social Fabric: Far from eroding community bonds, markets weave broader networks of trust. HumanProgress.org. Walker Wright. October 3, 2025. In Trade We Trust: How Markets Build Social Fabric - Human Progress

Trade Enriches, Promotes Trust, Honesty, Fairness, Tolerance, and Peace: Summary & Review of Five Essays by Walker Wright for Human Progress: Part 1 – Trade Enriches


    Walker Wright is a think tank policy manager with a forthcoming book, In Trade We Trust: How Commerce Makes Us More Social, which will be published by Bloomsbury. Over the past several months, he has posted five essays exploring different aspects of trade and how it benefits societies. I will summarize and review each essay in sequence.

 

The Rising Tide: How Trade Lifts All Boats: Free exchange turns scarcity into abundance for rich and poor alike

     This one explores how trade enriches us. He first cites Matt Ridley’s book The Rational Optimist, which asserts that economic progress began when trade began. “By exchanging,” he explained, “human beings discovered ‘the division of labour,’ the specialisation of efforts and talents for mutual gain…

     Wright notes that surveys report that 95% of economists agree that tariffs tend to reduce economic welfare, and another 90% think the United States should not restrict outsourcing.

“…the globalization of the market system has brought global extreme poverty to its lowest levels in human history.”

     The graph below shows that all global citizens, but especially citizens of China, have benefited from and reduced extreme poverty via trade. 




     He notes that the evidence clearly shows that the benefits of trade do not exclude those at the bottom, although they may also benefit from other help, such as social welfare.

Critics sometimes claim that growth leaves those at the bottom behind. It may improve the average, they say, but only because of large income boosts at the top.”

That talking point is simply untrue. Economic freedom, including openness to trade, and growth have been shown to improve incomes across the board. A rising tide truly does lift all boats, not just the yachts of the wealthy. Growth positively touches every tier of the economic ladder. A bigger economic pie means better living standards for everyone involved, making economic growth pro–poor.”

     He cites the Indian economist Arvind Panagariya, who documented the role of trade in the economic success of Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, India, China, and other countries throughout Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Panagariya found that trade increases per capita income. He also cites Dartmouth’s Douglas Irwin, who noted that trade liberalization has been “remarkably consistent,” fostering growth in productivity and standards of living. Tariffs do the opposite, and this is acknowledged by an overwhelming bipartisan majority. Wright gives long lists of many studies that concluded that trade increases economic growth and productivity. It is undeniable. He also notes that not only growth, but also other positive effects are associated with trade:

Open market economies have higher adult literacy rates, longer life expectancies, lower infant mortality rates, better environmental stewardship, and greater life satisfaction than closed economies do.”



     He also suggests that despite the deep income inequality of the super-rich, overall global income inequality has remained fairly steady since the early 1900s but has reduced a bit since 2000, according to the Gini index.




     Wright gives data that shows that while the poorest of economically free and economically not free countries get more or less the same share of the proverbial economic pie, between 2.26 and 2.78%, however, the amount actually earned by the poorest in free economic countries is eight times that of non-free economies.




     The American economist Deirdre McCloskey has referred to enrichment through trade as ‘The Great Enrichment.’

     Wright concludes:

It’s not that we suddenly figured out how to slice up the economic pie just right. We made the pie 2,900 to 10,000 percent bigger through commercial exchange. When the pie is bigger, there’s more pie to go around. And we’re all richer for it.”


Some Contrasting Views

     For this essay, I am giving some contrasting views from an anti-capitalist social media acquaintance who posted the following meme, some comments to the post, and my own unexpressed comments. This section has nothing to do with Wright’s analysis but does involve views on the ability of capitalism to build wealth for all.




     The meme suggests that capitalism does not promote merit-based or talent-based wealth. That is not true since many in those professions listed are quite wealthy, even if not the richest of the rich. The meme also suggests that those who work hard at menial jobs work harder than others. That may be true in general. ‘Working hard’ is a kind of subjective phrase. Cleaning a bathroom may be harder physically than solving a problem on a computer, but it does not generate the same value. Most people are able to clean a bathroom, but few may be able to solve a particular problem on a computer. Of course, we should value hard work and appreciate the hard work of others. We should pay them enough to have a decent quality of life.

     The following three quotes come from commenters who seem to agree with the meme:

If intelligence mattered, I should have a 25 year career under my belt, not 25 years of unemployment and multiple periods of homelessness.”

It's the same crusty families that have been robbing people for centuries and all thier grandchildren. Some were lucky enough to be adopted into the class but they had to pay with thier souls (that's what it looks like to me)

Capitalism is the enemy of humanity, because it triggers human greed and blocks sympathy and compassion, for money. Fuck capitalism. It MUST have guardrails to block human greed if it's going to function properly. Here, it doesn't.”

     I would strongly disagree with the third commenter. While it may trigger greed in some, it does not block sympathy and compassion. Often, it does the opposite by promoting better opportunities for sympathy and compassion. If the rich are to give to the poor, they have to be rich first. Otherwise, it’s the poor giving to the poor. A socialist may argue differently that if there were no rich people, there would be no poor people, but that may not be true in many cases. It’s true, as the second commenter noted, that some inherit wealth and everyone starts out at different economic levels. That may seem unfair, and indeed it is, but there is not much we can do about it without punishing people. We do have a welfare system that can help, and we should “punish” the super-wealthy with higher taxes. However, taxing the super-wealthy alone will not help alleviate poverty like free trade and capitalism can. There are, of course, people who fall through the cracks and do not benefit from the system. That is unfortunate, but there are some resources available to those people.

     Below is the best quote on the thread, in my opinion:

Capitalism doesn't PAY anyone. All it does is allow people to pay each other and trade with each other relatively freely. Therefore the people that get paid the most are those that create the most value that the most people are willing to pay for.”

The world is full of smart people who don't do much with their intelligence. Those that do become neurosurgeons, engineers, and scientists are indeed rewarded with significant incomes usually.”

Talent is also something that the world is full of and needs to be applied. And again, those with exceptional talents AND who work hard, also make money

Hard Labor is an easy commodity to come by and so supply and demand don't reward it highly.”

Capitalism doesn't PAY anyone. It allows people freedom to innovate and work without compulsion and to pay each other for what they find valuable.”

     There were two comments on that comment. The first is given below:

WOW That is a LOT of propaganda in a very short space.”

Capitalism is a system where people with capital, ie money, land, connections, and the ability to navigate the system are allowed to amass more capital.”

Unrestricted capitalism leads to monopolies and oligopolies wherein those who amass very large amounts of capital control the entire system.”

     I would comment here that this commenter and some others have suggested that our form of capitalism is “unrestricted” and our markets have no guardrails. That is not true. Our economic system in the U.S. is a mixed economic system, a regulated form of free market capitalism with taxation based on income and social welfare. While people may disagree about the degree and types of regulation, we do not have anything near pure free market capitalism. I agree that the super-rich should be taxed more and that it is important to bring all people above poverty levels and to satisfactory prosperity.

     The second comment to the comment is below:

hard labor is necessary for capitalism to survive. It's not that we're "easy to come by," it's that we all have to have income, and those with large amounts of capital take advantage of that fact. It's also easy to create value when you have... capital. Hundreds of millions of people are disenfranchised from the system because they weren't born into money. They never have an opportunity to create anything. A bank won't even give you a loan to start a small business unless you've labored at the same job for 20 years and been EXTREMELY good with your money, and even then now you've got a loan against your one very small business.”

If everyone had the same opportunities I'd for sure be pro-capitalism.”

     There are some fair arguments here. Our system does advantage those who already have wealth and is often very difficult for those at the bottom. Opportunity can be hard to come by, but it is probably out there if one can position oneself to find it. That is the goal of social welfare – to help fill the gaps made in part by the lack of opportunities for some.   

  

 

References:

 

The Rising Tide: How Trade Lifts All Boats: Free exchange turns scarcity into abundance for rich and poor alike. Walker Wright. HumanProgress.org. August 15, 2025. The Rising Tide: How Trade Lifts All Boats - Human Progress

     I was curious about this, so I did some quick research to estimate comparative market caps for these new technologies. AI dominates, ...