River Deltas Around the World Are Sinking Faster Than Sea Level is Rising: Groundwater Withdrawal, Reduced Sediment Supply, and Urban Expansion Are the Causes

    

      A new study published in Nature in January 2026 notes that there are river deltas around the world that are sinking faster than sea level is rising. The study examined 40 deltas and found that in 18 of them, the land elevations were subsiding (dropping) faster than sea level rise, and in nearly every delta studied, there are areas where subsidence is exceeding sea level rise. This is increasing the flooding risks for about 236 million people.

     Advanced satellite radar systems were used to measure changes in surface elevation across deltas on five continents. In particular, the Mekong, Nile, Chao Phraya, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mississippi, and Yellow River deltas are experiencing rapid elevation loss.

     Three major causes are to blame for the subsidence, and all are caused by humans. These are groundwater withdrawal, reduced sediment supply, and urbanization. The study indicates that groundwater depletion is the chief cause, although the main causes vary by region.

     The study was overseen by Virginia Tech geoscientists Manoochehr Shirzaei and Susanna Werth and led by former Virginia Tech graduate student Leonard Ohenhen, now an assistant professor at the University of California, Irvine.

“When groundwater is over-pumped or sediments fail to reach the coast, the land surface drops,” said Werth, who co-led the groundwater analysis. “These processes are directly linked to human decisions, which means the solutions also lie within our control.”

     The authors created a high-resolution map where each pixel corresponds to 75 square meters of the surface. Some deltas are sinking at a rate double that of sea level rise.

     As the abstract below notes, along with flooding risks and land loss, there are also risks of salination of freshwater. This high-resolution study is an important step toward understanding the issue, its causes, and its possible mitigation. As noted in the quote below from the abstract, relative sea level rise is dominated not by climate change but by subsidence.

“…we find that contemporary subsidence surpasses absolute (geocentric) sea-level rise as the dominant driver of relative sea-level rise for most deltas over the twenty-first century. These findings suggest the need for targeted interventions addressing subsidence as an immediate and localized challenge, in parallel with broader efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change-driven global sea-level rise.”

 

References:

 

Sinking river deltas put millions at risk of flooding: Some of the world’s biggest megacities are located in river deltas threatened by subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction and urban expansion, compounding the threat they face from sea-level rise. James Woodford. New Scientist. 14 January 2026. Sinking river deltas put millions at risk of flooding | New Scientist

Major river deltas are sinking faster than sea-level rise: A new study published in Nature finds human-driven land sinking now outpaces sea-level rise in many of the world’s major delta systems, threatening more than 236 million people. Kelly Izlar. Virginia Tech. January 14, 2026. Major river deltas are sinking faster than sea-level rise | Virginia Tech News | Virginia Tech

Major river deltas are sinking faster than sea-level rise. Geology Page. May 2, 2026. Major river deltas are sinking faster than sea-level rise | Geology Page

Global subsidence of river deltas. L. O. Ohenhen, M. Shirzaei, J. L. Davis, A. Tiwari, R. Nicholls, O. Dasho, N. Sadhasivam, K. Seeger, S. Werth, A. J. Chadwick, F. Onyike, J. Lucy, C. Atkins, S. Daramola, A. Ankamah, P. S. J. Minderhoud, J. Oelsmann & G. C. Yemele. Nature. Volume 649, pages 894–901 (2026). Global subsidence of river deltas | Nature

The Minerals Processing Gap is Huge: China Has Mineral Processing Dominance and It Will Take Time for the U.S. and Other Countries to Catch Up

     The Trump administration has emphasized U.S. energy dominance, economic dominance, and technological dominance. However, there is one area where China, in particular, has dominance. That is in the sphere of critical minerals, especially minerals processing or refining. In many cases, minerals mined in the U.S. and other countries are sent to China to be processed and then sent back. This is expensive and emissions-intensive but usually still economical. The U.S. and other countries are working on domestic minerals mining and processing ventures, but they will take time. An undesirable part of doing that is that mineral processing is often polluting and has serious environmental impacts. When we outsource and offshore minerals processing to China, we also offshore the associated environmental impacts.

     A new article in The Conversation by academics from the Universities of Maryland and West Virginia explores the issue of the U.S.’s minerals processing capacity and infrastructure. The authors explain:

“Between mining and the finished product lies a complex chain of separation, refining and advanced manufacturing. Since the 1990s, however, the United States has lost much of its critical mineral processing capacity.”

“Rebuilding domestic mineral supply chains will depend not only on resource availability and funding, but also on whether the U.S. can rebuild the technical expertise and industrial systems required to process those materials on a large scale.”

     The Mountain Pass Mine in California’s Mojave Desert used to be the world’s biggest, rare-earth mine and processing facility, but environmental and regulatory issues in the 1980s and 90s led to its being eclipsed, and rare-earth mining and processing shifted to China. The graph below from Wikipedia shows the changes in REE production from 1950 to 2000.

     By the early 2000s, U.S. REE production was nearly zero as China developed and patented new processing techniques and came to dominate the industry. Roughly 90% of the REEs produced in the U.S. and allied countries are shipped to China for processing. The U.S. relies on China for about 80% of its REEs now. The graph below shows selected critical minerals sources and the level of U.S. import reliance for each mineral.

     The U.S. has been working for nearly a decade now to bring back critical minerals mining and processing, citing national security concerns, but these kinds of projects take a lot of time.

“These facilities require years of permitting, highly specialized equipment and a workforce trained in metallurgy, chemical engineering and industrial systems operation. The time from investment decision to production can stretch across a decade.”

     The U.S. currently has two producing rare earth mines: Mountain Pass in California and another in southeast Georgia, which extracts rare earth elements as a byproduct of heavy mineral sand mining. The U.S. has also lost much of its mining and processing expertise as college programs for these skills have shrunk. Mining employment has fallen from 300,000 people in 1990 to less than 200,000 today. Of course, since coal is included in those numbers, some of that is due to shifts to more mechanized mining.

“Specialized skills in areas such as rare earth separation, metallurgical testing and environmental systems design require years of training and practical experience. And while mining can produce high-paying jobs, the industry also has a reputation for environmental damage and hazardous conditions.”

     Wastewater from minerals mining is a serious environmental issue and one that has limited minerals mining and processing ventures in the U.S. China notoriously polluted surface water, groundwater, and soil when it ramped up mining and processing beginning in the 1990s.

“Operating a refinery or separation facility in compliance with regulatory standards today requires expertise in pollution control, waste treatment and sustainable process design. That requires a workforce skilled in materials science and engineering and with knowledge of environmental systems. Without environmental expertise, operational risks, regulatory challenges and project delays can increase, affecting long-term viability.”

     The authors note that Canada’s mineral processing strategy links mining and processing to the companies that use them for funding and developing the necessary supply chains. The same is happening in the U.S. as battery manufacturing facilities are located near mining facilities.

     Workforce training is important since mining engineering enrollment has been steadily dropping over the past decade.

“The United States has many of the key ingredients needed to rebuild its processing capacity, including research universities and workers with transferable industrial skills. Land-grant and technical universities could expand programs that integrate mining, materials science, environmental restoration and recycling. In regions such as Appalachia, where coal’s decline has left workers with skills but few job opportunities, retraining programs for new mineral recovery jobs could help people transition to a new industry.”

     Research hubs are cropping up to address the issue and rebuild U.S. processing capacity. Federal programs are supporting this effort. The article goes on to stress the importance of developing a competent workforce. More domestic investment and policy changes, such as permit reforms, will also help.

“A successful domestic supply chain will require workers who know how to separate neodymium from praseodymium, operate solvent extraction circuits and maintain hydrometallurgical plants within regulatory standards. These are highly specialized skills that take years to develop.”

     It will take time for the U.S. to rebuild its minerals mining and processing capacity and infrastructure, but it is happening. Geopolitics is spurring it as China has put export controls on some of its minerals, using these as leverage in negotiations.

 

    

References:

 

The missing link in America’s critical minerals push isn’t mining – it’s processing expertise. Hélène Nguemgaing, University of Maryland and Alan Collins, West Virginia University. The Conversation. May 11, 2026. The missing link in America’s critical minerals push isn’t mining – it’s processing expertise

Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine. Wikipedia. Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine - Wikipedia

Trade Over Aid: It’s Fine, but Trade Can’t Treat Dire and Immediate Issues Like Aid Can

     On April 27, 2026, the U.S. Mission to the UN launched its Trade Over Aid initiative. At the first of the year, the U.S. State Department put out its Agency Strategic Plan: Fiscal Years 2026-2030, which included at the end a short section entitled Promote and provide trade, not aid. The goal is to shift public sector aid to private sector trade. The problem with that approach is that people in dire need of life-saving aid do not have time to wait for the results of that trade to trickle down to them, assuming that it even will. There is a lot of corruption in the world that favors the affluent and government-connected over those with the most need. That said, ‘promoting and providing trade’ is a great idea, but “not aid” is a bad idea. The two should not be mutually exclusive. While this doctrine is a part of the MAGA philosophy, I think it has serious flaws. Studies have already shown that the shutdown of USAID has led to dire circumstances for the people with the most need, including many unnecessary deaths. That life-saving aid, however inefficient and sometimes misplaced it was, gave the U.S. a kind of “soft power” that allowed us to be a leader in compassionate aid around the world. Since the Trump administration is always asserting goals of U.S. dominance – energy dominance, technological dominance, and economic dominance in particular, one could say that the U.S. exhibited compassionate aid dominance or soft power dominance before USAID was dissolved.

“It emphasizes mutually beneficial trade, investment, and private-sector engagement as the primary tools for fostering economic growth in developing countries, rather than relying on traditional foreign aid programs.”

     The section in the State Department’s strategy document cautions against reliance on multilateral institutions and global non-profits for aid. I would argue that life-saving aid is life-saving aid, wherever it originates. It matters not to a hungry person where their food comes from, only that it comes.

     That section also argues against other forms of aid that can produce dependence, such as what has happened with China’s aid, where what has become known as ‘debt-trap diplomacy.’ They call that an exploitive model and seek instead to provide nations with American technology and:

“…secure local buy-in, catalyze private capital, and ensure that development projects benefit from the discipline of market principle.”

     That is, of course, a good idea, and I hope it is helpful to developing countries. However, it does not address the immediate needs of real people at all.

     In ‘Remarks by Under Secretary William Kimmitt at the Trade Over Aid Launch Event', the undersecretary reiterated the themes of dependency, mutual exclusivity of aid and trade, and private-sector problem solving.

“Aid can serve a purpose, but no nation ever became prosperous because it was permanently dependent on aid. Nations become prosperous when they produce, trade, build, invest, innovate, and compete. That’s the foundation of this initiative.”

     I can’t see anyone believing that aid alone could make a country prosperous.

“Too many of our trading partners have distorted global markets through subsidies, state direction, forced technology transfer, weak regulatory enforcement, non-market behavior, and other practices that prevent true free, fair, and reciprocal trade.”

     Sure, some of those issues can be adjusted in the countries’ favor. He goes on to say basically that developing countries should develop, including developing effective free markets that do not distort the wider global market, urging them to:

“…build more productive industries, attract investment, and rise through fair competition.”

     The heart of the matter is commerce for mutual benefit. This is due in part to the America First strategy, which always asks: How do Americans and American companies and institutions benefit? In other words, what’s in it for us? That is fine for economic development, but not for life-saving aid.

“When developing economies become more prosperous, they become better customers, better investors, better partners, and better allies. This is how shared prosperity is created—not through dependency, but through production and exchange.”

     That is fine and dandy and a good idea. It is pure Trumpism, where everything is transactional, but it does not apply to dire need, which seems to be the elephant in the room that is not being addressed.

     The summary below is very good, and I agree with it, but again, I don’t think that giving life-saving aid was meant or expected to improve the economies of developing countries. I think that a better overall approach would have been ‘More trade, less aid.’

References:

 

Trade Over Aid. U.S. Mission to the United Nations. April 27, 2026. Trade Over Aid - United States Mission to the United Nations

Agency Strategic Plan Fiscal Years 2026-2030. U.S. DEPARTMENT of STATE. January 2026. Agency Strategic Plan Fiscal Years 2026-2030

Remarks by Under Secretary William Kimmitt at the Trade Over Aid Launch Event. April 27, 2026. Remarks by Under Secretary William Kimmitt at the Trade Over Aid Launch Event

The Ivanpah Thermal Solar Power Plant, Once a Marvel of Technology, Has Become an Expensive Boondoggle: Some Want it Shuttered, but California Says It is Still Needed

     The Ivanpah Thermal Solar Power Plant in the Mojave Desert in California near the Nevada border has been operational since 2014. Once the U.S. flagship for thermal solar power, the project has become obsolete, some argue, since solar PV technology has improved to the point where it is more economical than Ivanpah. Basically, the project has become a stranded asset, more expensive to operate than deploying and operating existing solar PV tech. The current debate about closing it down or not is basically a debate about who pays the $1.6 billion government loan payments, taxpayers if it is closed, or electricity ratepayers if it remains open. It also shows the irony that all the hoopla about fossil fuel assets becoming stranded assets can be applied to some clean energy projects as well. In this case, it is a very expensive project with $2.2 billion in government funding.

     Ivanpah’s land footprint is quite large at 4000 acres. It contains 350,000 mirrors on 170,000 heliostats. The mirrors blinded aircraft with the glare, so plane routes had to be diverted around them. While its capacity is nearly 400 MW, since it is a solar plant only operational during the day, its actual output was likely closer to 100 MW. A 400 MW natural gas plant would have an output closer to 250 MW.

     Michael Dorgan of Fox News wrote a detailed article about the issues facing the plant. He noted some of the environmental issues that the plant has triggered, including significant wildlife impacts:

“The project has also faced scrutiny over its environmental impact, with thousands of birds killed after flying through the plant’s concentrated solar beams — along with the destruction of large areas of desert land and displacement of desert tortoises.”

     Thus, while its environmental benefits compared to a comparable 100-200 MW natural gas unit are great in terms of air pollutants and carbon emissions, its large land footprint, desert impacts, and hot concentrated solar beams that are deadly for birds make it not so great for the local environment.  

     Dorgan notes that between $730 million and $780 million of the $1.6 billion government loan is left to be paid. The project also received a $539 million government grant that funded 30% of its construction. Keeping the plant open may require up to $100 million per year from ratepayers compared to currently available solar alternatives.

“Officials under both the Trump and Biden administrations, along with Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) — which buys electricity from the plant — have supported shutting it down. PG&E has described the contracts as part of an effort to reduce "uneconomic resources" in its energy portfolio, according to regulatory filings.”

     The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) rejected efforts to break the power contracts that the plant has with buyers. Shutting down the plant could create another stranded asset, that being the $300 million sunk into transmission to deliver its power, which was funded by ratepayers. CPUC also cites potential threats to grid reliability in light of increasing demand due to AI data centers as reasons to keep it open.

     Severin Borenstein, an energy economist at the University of California, Berkeley, told Fox News Digital that:

“…the project reflects the risks of investing in emerging energy technologies at scale.”

Mark Jacobson, a Stanford University energy systems expert (and an avid anti-fossil fuel advocate – I add),

“…contended the technology itself is not inherently flawed but lacks key features used in newer systems.”

"There’s no role for a concentrated solar plant without storage," Jacobson told Fox News Digital, noting that modern systems typically store energy for use at night — something Ivanpah cannot do.

“Jacobson added that while the plant may no longer be competitive with new projects, that does not necessarily mean it should be shut down.”

"It’s already built," he said. "So the question is whether it’s cheaper to keep it running than to replace it."

     Ivanpah has also suffered operational issues, which have further degraded its output. In 2023, the plant had a capacity factor, or utilization rate, of just 17%, making it comparable to a 68 MW power plant working 24 hours. When it was built, it was hoped that its capacity factor would be steady between 25 and 30%.

     The plant is about 50 miles from the nearest town, and people there say their own power bills are very high.     

     It was an interesting project in its time, but I am guessing it will be shuttered before too long, although nobody knows when. I wonder what they will do with all those mirrors when the plant is decommissioned. It doesn’t seem likely that the stranded transmission will be useful or fully powered except for other solar projects and perhaps geothermal projects. It was an early experiment that sort of worked but had issues and then succumbed to better tech, namely PV solar plus storage.

     Dorgan published another article a week later detailing the wildlife impacts of the plant, including evidence that the concentrated solar beams scorched birds. The final environmental impact statement for the project noted that there would be bird deaths and that they would be monitored. No penalties or fines are issued for the deaths as they are considered to be incidental. However, if someone were to intentionally kill some of those bird species, they could be heavily fined, up to $15,000 per bird. There have been some mitigation attempts, but mostly, there is just monitoring. It is estimated that over one thousand birds are killed annually.

 

    

 

References:

Obama-backed $2.2B green energy boondoggle leaves taxpayers on the hook. Michael Dorgan. Fox News. May 2, 2026. Obama-backed $2.2B green energy boondoggle leaves taxpayers on the hook

Regulators allow Obama-era solar plant to kill thousands of birds annually, investigation finds. Michael Dorgan. Fox News. May 9, 2026. Regulators allow Obama-era solar plant to kill thousands of birds annually, investigation finds

 

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Deploys Local AI Via a Dell Compact Supercomputer and a NVIDIA Superchip, Without Compromising Security or Control

     As AI technology works its way into many applications in many sectors, it will likely appear in different configurations. Companies and institutions that work with infrastructure, safety, and public trust have special needs for AI tech to be under control and secure. Veronica Thums of Dell Technology writes about the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI) configuration for safe and secure “local” AI via a special Dell compact supercomputer and a NVIDIA superchip. EPRI is an energy and electricity research institute that is deeply involved in integrating AI and data center power loads with power grids. The author notes that:

“Data sensitivity, regulatory requirements, and the need for deep domain reasoning make cloud‑only approaches difficult to scale responsibly.”

“With the Dell Pro Max with GB10 equipped with the NVIDIA Grace Blackwell Superchip, EPRI can develop, test, and run custom AI workflows locally — unlocking new levels of insight while keeping sensitive information firmly on premises.”

     Aside from better control and security, there are more reasons to deploy local AI instead of cloud-based AI. There are exposure concerns with external networks. Some advantages of local AI are given below.

     As noted, the Dell Pro Max GB10 NVIDIA combo, which costs between $5500 and $6300 depending on the amount of storage, can provide high-tech AI at a reasonable price for local or on-premises applications.

“Powered by NVIDIA DGX OS, the GB10 system delivers a stable and fully integrated NVIDIA AI software stack, enabling researchers to develop AI tools locally using the same environment they would rely on in larger enterprise infrastructures. With the Grace Blackwell Superchip, acceleration becomes a catalyst for real productivity. Delivering rapid inference, fluid model execution, and smooth interaction with large, reasoning‑intensive datasets.”

“In early 2026, EPRI developed Power Chat, a prototype demonstrating how document-grounded AI assistant can run entirely on a compact supercomputer—the Dell Pro Max with GB10. Power Chat enables deep, conversational exploration of technical documents through a streamline interface and a fully local workflow designed for controlled environments.”

“The goal is a faster path to insight from large, dense documents, improving access to critical information and supporting decision-making.”

     The compact GB10 setup can replace larger and more expensive GPU servers. The system takes about 15 minutes to boot up, load the models, and encode documents into the KV cache. Below is a sample of an EPRI Power Chat query.

     NVIDIA provides several AI playbooks that provide instructions for running AI workloads on its GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip.     

     With the success and advantages of this system for specific applications requiring data security and control, I am guessing that local AI options for organizations that have such requirements will be the wave of the future due to lower costs and better control.

     

References:

 

EPRI: Local AI for Energy Research. Veronica Thums. Dell Technologies. April 6, 2026. EPRI: Local AI for Energy Research | Dell

 

 

 

 

Tainted Marine Diesel Fuel Cut with Estonian Shale Oil Bought in Singapore is Causing Engine Problems and Breakdowns for Tankers: Undeclared Fuel Substitution is Fraud

      Singapore is the world’s largest hub for marine fuel. Apparently, the Iran War is really affecting fuel prices and supply since marine fuel has been found to be cut with Estonian shale oil, not a very applicable additive for marine diesel fuel. Those responsible for cutting the fuel should be criminally liable. At least three tankers have experienced engine problems and breakdowns due to the fuel additive. Before the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, Singapore got 40% of its oil from the Middle East.

"The tainted blend can lead to“sludging,”, where fuel becomes more viscous. This can clog engines and cause them to stutter or even grind to a halt." 

     An article in The Telegraph explains the issue:

“The problem has been most evident in Singapore, the world’s biggest hub for marine fuel, with reports of vessels encountering engine issues after taking on supplies.”

“At least three oil tankers were among ships to have suffered sludging and fuel pump failure after refueling in the Asian port last month, Lloyd’s List reported.”

“Subsequent analysis revealed that regular marine fuel had been cut with shale oil from Estonia, which is regarded as too impure for most engines.”

     While some engines can handle fuel substitutions and additives, others can’t.

“Veritas Petroleum Services, a specialist testing agency, found increased levels of shale oil in 90,000 tons of fuel – enough to fill the tanks of 10 very large crude carriers – uploaded between February and March.”

“Marine insurer Skuld last week urged companies to vet suppliers and test bunker fuel in advance after identifying issues in Hong Kong and Malaysia, as well as Singapore.”

     The cost of marine fuel initially doubled after the Iran War began, but has dropped to about 50% above what it was before the war. Of course, that is no excuse for fraud. If the disruptions to fuel supplies coming out of the Middle East continue, the problem could get worse. Since tainted fuel could be a matter of success or failure for tankers, I am guessing they will be testing fuels every chance they get to avoid problems. As it stands now, the situation is unacceptable, and shipping companies should not have to endure it.

 

References:

 

Tankers break down as Iran war unleashes flood of tainted fuel. Christopher Jasper. The Telegraph. May 9, 2026. Tankers break down as Iran war unleashes flood of tainted fuel

 

The End of Single-Basin Dominance is Reshaping U.S. Energy, by BOK Financial: Whitepaper Summary & Review

    This whitepaper explores the maturing Permian Basin, where Tier 1 acreage will soon enough be drilled up. The authors ask and answer what will replace investment in the Permian Basin. The main answers given are Appalachia, Oklahoma’s Anadarko Basin, and the plays in the Rockies. There are opportunities in Southern basins as well. Appalachia’s Marcellus and Burket are natural gas plays. Its Utica play has a narrow oil & liquids window currently being dominated by EOG Resources, but most of its acreage is prospective for gas. The deep Utica in Pennsylvania is currently producing large per-well gas volumes.

 

The Southern Basins – Permian, Eagle Ford, Hayneville-Bossier

     Looking at the Southern basins, the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville are the biggest plays, and each has large fairways for drilling. The Haynesville-Bossier play is high-volume gas but also has higher drilling costs due to depth and high-temperature/high-pressure conditions. The Permian and Eagle Ford have oil and gas fairways, but the Permian is mostly oil with associated gas. In those basins, operators have shifted priorities:

“Rather than expansion, operators are now prioritizing scale, efficiency and returns. Most of the big players there are looking to consolidate, to become more concentrated and get higher returns and have scale in the area,”

     Larger operators are prioritizing their best acreage and selling off parts they don’t want. This sometimes creates opportunities for smaller companies to acquire and develop, or they may acquire non-operated assets.

“More notably, some operators are finding value not in building large operated positions, but in assembling acreage and non-operated interests that can be monetized through trades or sales.”

     The Eagle Ford, they note, is past its peak growth phase. Operators are mostly focused on efficiency. They note that sometimes cheaper drilling and completion costs can make some acreage economical that previously was not economical. Pipelines are often a constraint in the Permian. Capital markets have also become more demanding:

“And the increasing influence of capital markets is reshaping strategy across the board, with investors demanding stronger returns, disciplined spending and more resilient balance sheets.”

     Expansion is no longer a main goal in the Southern Basins, but efficiency is becoming key as”

“…strategic positioning, operational discipline and the ability to create value in a tighter, more consolidated market.”

 

Appalachia - Marcellus and Utica

     The Appalachian plays have plenty of running room and are expected to produce well for decades. They are currently producing a third of the nation’s natural gas at mid-30s BCF per day. One of the region’s biggest constraints has long been the ability to build multi-state pipelines, where there is more public opposition and regulatory hurdles than in the South and West. That does, however, increase in-basin opportunities for projects such as natural gas plants, data centers, hydrogen projects, and industrial opportunities. These in-basin projects could add 2-4 BCF per day of demand in the region over the next several years. Incremental pipeline expansions can help, slightly increasing the ever-important pipeline takeaway capacity. They note that technological advancements can turn Tier 2 acreage into Tier 1 acreage. Deep Utica produces very good economic results despite higher well costs. The Utica oil window in Ohio produces results comparable to the Permian Basin. They predict that Appalachian production could rise to the low-40s BCF per day.

 

Oklahoma – Mainly SCOOP/STACK and Anadarko Basin, but Other Plays as Well

     Plays in Oklahoma include the SCOOP and STACK plays in central Oklahoma and the Anadarko Basin plays in Western Oklahoma. The Anadarko’s Cherokee Shale play has garnered attention in recent years. Some features of the Oklahoma plays include low cost of entry, abundant pipeline takeaway capacity, and the availability in most areas of multiple hydrocarbons: oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, which give companies optionality when pricing changes. Another feature is that most of the area is drilled by smaller private companies, with few large public companies involved. However, they also note that there can be geological challenges in some areas, where very good wells can occur next to not-so-good wells. They don’t mention it, but high amounts of water production are also a feature of drilling in Oklahoma, so water handling and disposal costs can also affect economics.

 

Rockies – Powder River, Uinta, DJ, Williston, and Several Other Basins

     Here, they emphasize that the Rockies' plays offer consistency and repeatability, which are important for economics. They note that there are still vast, undrilled areas in these basins to explore.

“What we’re seeing isn’t opportunistic interest—it’s strategic repositioning,” Evangelista said. “Capital is following assets that can deliver steady returns over time, and the Rockies are screening well under that framework.”

“The constraints are well understood. Regulatory complexity at the state level, combined with infrastructure limitations and distance from key markets, can impact both timelines and economics.”

“Over the next few years, the region’s role will likely expand as operators prioritize durability over peak output. Success will depend on a disciplined approach: understanding local regulatory environments, deploying capital selectively and executing against long-term development plans.”

 

In Summary – Growth is No Longer the Goal: Capital discipline, Inventory Depth, and Working with Infrastructure Constraints are Now the Focus

     In most U.S. basins, the resource has been identified, and the once-important goal of growth through the drill bit has been replaced by capital discipline and efficient development. The Southern basin trends are consolidation and scale. The Appalachian imperative is dealing with the logistics of pipeline constraints. In Oklahoma, some growth is possible, with the advantages of getting in cheaply, having product optionality, and abundant takeaway capacity. The Rockies feature consistency and sizable inventory. Many operators are balancing plays in multiple basins, seeking not growth but value and consistent returns.

“That shift is influencing everything from capital allocation to deal-making. M&A activity, private equity reentry and portfolio rebalancing all point to a more diversified approach to basin exposure.”

“It also suggests a more nuanced future for U.S. energy development. No single basin is likely to dominate in the way the Permian has over the past decade. Instead, the next phase may well be defined by a network of complementary regions, each playing a distinct role depending on cost structure, infrastructure access and resource profile.”

References:

 

The end of single-basin dominance is reshaping U.S. energy. BOK Financial. 2026. he-20260427-BOK+Financial-Hart+Energy+White+Paper.pdf

 

 

Iraq Announces 8.8 Billion Barrel Oil Discovery Near Saudi Border: China’s ZhenHua Oil is the Operator and Expects to Accelerate Development, and a New Pipeline Will Deliver it to Jordan, Bypassing Hormuz

    

      The Iraqi Ministry of Oil has announced the discovery of a large oil field in the southern province of Najaf, near the border with Saudi Arabia. This is an important discovery and one of the biggest in recent years in Iraq, the fifth largest global oil producer and the third largest OPEC producer. Iraq has reserves of 145 billion barrels of oil, roughly 17% of total Middle Eastern reserves and 9% of global reserves. The country was producing about 4.5 million barrels per day before the Iran War, but its oil revenue has dropped by about 71% since then, resulting in billions of lost revenues. Of its total production, 3.5 million barrels per day were exported, 90% through the Strait of Hormuz. There may be more to come in the area in the future, as just one of the exploration blocks has estimated reserves of 8.8 billion barrels. A deal to explore the block was signed in October 2024.

     According to Euro News:

“According to data announced by the Ministry, drilling operations at the Shams-11 exploration well showed the presence of light crude oil, with an initial production capacity of 3,248 barrels per day.”

     The oil discovery was in the MUS formation at a depth of 1,916-1,965 meters. 2D seismic surveying for her project began in October 2025, and drilling of the Sham-1 well commenced in January 2026.

“The announcement was made during an official meeting between Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani and representatives from China's ZhenHua Oil, during which they reviewed progress at the Qurnain site and discussed advanced drilling techniques to increase the efficiency of exploration and production operations and accelerate development.”

“ZhenHua, through its subsidiary Qurnain Petroleum Limited, is the main operator of exploratory drilling and seismic survey operations in partnership with the Iraqi side.”

     The Chinese company plans to implement a rapid investment plan to accelerate development.

“Baghdad is working to accelerate a strategic project to build a pipeline linking Basra province in the south with the city of Haditha in Anbar province near the Syrian border, with a planned export capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day.”

“According to official data issued by the Ministry of Oil, Iraq's oil exports fell to 18.6 million barrels in March, generating revenues of $1.96 billion (€1.77bn) — a decline of around 71 per cent in revenue terms compared to February, when Iraq exported more than 99 million barrels and earned $6.81 billion (€6.15bn).”

     The Qurnain Block is shown on the map below in south-central Iraq, right along the Saudi border.

     Brian Wang for Next Big Future wrote about the planned pipelines that will bypass the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that right now about 8-8.5 million barrels in the region bypasses Hormuz, but that these projects, with expected timelines of 3-5 years, will increase that to 12-13 million barrels per day by then, and that new Iraqi plans could increase that by another 2-3 million barrels per day. The first two maps below show pipelines and planned pipelines to bypass Hormuz, respectively. The third map, from Kpler, shows the likely route of the Basra-Aqaba Pipeline, which is expected to cost $5 billion.

 "The 700-kilometer pipeline will run from Basra - home to some 66 percent of Iraq’s oil reserves - to the town of Haditha in Anbar, oil ministry Spokesperson Abdulsahib al-Hasnawi told the state-run Iraqi News Agency (INA)."

"The Basra-Hadith pipeline will be capable of transporting “around 2.5 million oil barrels per day and enable exports to three ports: Baniyas in Syria, Ceyhan in Turkey [on the Mediterranean] and Aqaba in Jordan [on the Red Sea],” Hasnawi added."

 

 

 

References:

 

Iraq announces huge oil find near Saudi border as Hormuz crisis bites. Chaima Chihi. Euro News. May 8, 2026. Iraq announces huge oil find near Saudi border as Hormuz crisis bites

New Oil Discovery at Qurnain Exploration Block. Iraq Business News. New Oil Discovery at Qurnain Exploration Block | Iraq Business News

Iraq gives go-ahead for Basra oil pipeline under deal with China. Nadim Kawach. AGBI. April 27, 2026. Iraq gives go-ahead for Basra oil pipeline under deal with China

Other Pipelines and Projects to Bypass Oil From Hormuz. Brian Wang. Next Big Future. May 5, 2026. Other Pipelines and Projects to Bypass Oil From Hormuz | NextBigFuture.com

Beyond Hormuz: The pipeline routes that could reshape Gulf oil flows. Victoria Grabenwöger. Kpler. Beyond Hormuz: The pipeline routes that could reshape Gulf Beyond Hormuz: The pipeline routes that could reshape Gulf oil flows | Kpler -

Iraq accelerates $5 billion Basra-Anbar oil pipeline amid push for new export routes: Ministry. Rudaw. May 1, 2026. Iraq accelerates $5 billion Basra-Anbar oil... | Rudaw.net