The Atlantic Council’s Energy Sanction Dashboard Provides Data, Analysis, History, and Implications of Energy Sanctions

      I have previously posted on this blog some of Bloomberg’s very good analysis of the shadow fleet oil and LNG trade of sanctioned oil & gas, and who is buying it. The Atlantic Council also has a great tool for exploring energy sanctions, focusing specifically on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil.

     The use of less detectable shadow fleets with deliberately opaque ownership and ship-to-ship transfers of oil to unsanctioned tankers has aided the shadow system to thrive. They note that the sanctioned shadow fleets and transshipment networks allowed China to save up to $28.8 million per day on imports at peak discount levels.

“US sanctions waivers, rising oil prices, and supply shortages following the conflict in Iran have boosted demand for Russian crude. Since the waivers were issued, Russia has supplied approximately 300 million barrels to the international market as of May 11, with India re-emerging as a major importer and Southeast Asia emerging as a new destination for Russian crude.”

“The Atlantic Council’s Energy Sanctions Dashboard, created by the Economic Statecraft Initiative and Global Energy Center,

1) assesses how sanctions have impacted global crude oil flows,

2) explores the unintended consequences for the global crude oil industry, and

3) analyzes lessons learned about the deployment of energy sanctions for achieving foreign policy objectives.”

     The currently unresolved, but hopefully soon-to-be resolved Strait of Hormuz disruption is considered to be the biggest energy market disruption in history, with Asia being the most affected region, followed by Europe.

     They note that after Lukoil and Rosneft were sanctioned in October 2025, China briefly stopped importing oil from Russia but resumed imports by shifting the destinations to smaller refiners, less exposed to sanctions enforcement actions. China was also able to import sanctioned Venezuelan oil at a nice discount in 2025. China also buys most of the sanctioned Iranian oil, including oil with unknown buyers, which are thought to be mostly Chinese buyers. In 2025, the discounts meant that sanctioned oil was selling at 10-15$ per barrel cheaper than non-sanctioned oil. However, since the Iran War broke out, Russia has been able to sell oil at $10 higher than the elevated Brent prices, giving Putin’s war machine a needed lifeline, unfortunately.

     The Atlantic Council does call for stricter sanctions enforcement. We saw some of that in late 2025 and early 2026 with the seizing of some tankers, but with temporary sanctions waivers, enforcement has dropped.

     It turns out China was wise to stockpile oil in 2025, which makes it less affected by the Iran situation. It is unfortunate, but other Southeast Asian countries, such as India and Indonesia, have made deals to import Russian oil under the sanctions waivers, but the Atlantic Council sees it also as diversifying their supply from the Middle East, and this may continue after the sanctions waivers are ended. It will take some time for the oil markets to get supply back up to pre-war levels. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have also negotiated with Russia for some of that waiver oil. China has responded to U.S. efforts for:

“…secondary sanctions to target shadow fleets, foreign refiners, maritime and financial intermediaries, and overseas commercial and banking infrastructure, including intermediaries in China, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, Iraq, and Oman. In response, China ordered its companies not to comply with US sanctions against Chinese refineries, deploying its “prohibition order” for the first time. The move marks a shift in Beijing’s response to US sanctions, from one where China would have rhetorically condemned US trade restrictions while allowing companies to comply, to a more confrontational approach.”

     The Atlantic Council recommends two important ways to tackle the long-established sanctions evasion networks, which they call the “Axis of Evasion.”

“To preserve energy sanctions as an effective tool of economic statecraft against Russia and Iran, the United States should focus on targeting two central elements of sanctions evasion networks: shadow fleet tankers and Chinese “teapot” refineries. These elements have facilitated Russia-Iran-China oil trade for years and were notably analyzed by Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze in their March 2024 “Axis of Evasion” article” 

 

 

References:

 

Energy Sanctions Dashboard: How the Iran Conflict is Reshaping Sanctioned Crude Oil Flows. The Atlantic Council. May 21, 2026. Energy Sanctions Dashboard - Atlantic Council

Komatsu’s PC9000 Hydraulic Mining Excavators are Being Used in Canada in Alberta Oil Sands Mining and Are Now Available Globally for a Variety of Surface Mining Applications

       In May 2025, Komatsu’s largest hydraulic mining excavator, the PC9000, delivered its first unit to Canada for deployment in Alberta’s oil sands mining region, specifically to Suncor’s Fort Hills Mine.  The PC9000 is a 900-ton piece of equipment and among the best of the 900-tonne class of mining excavators.

     According to Heavy Equipment Guide:

“Engineered as a five-pass match for Komatsu's 980E ultra-class haul trucks, this combination enables fast, double-sided loading to support autonomous haulage systems (AHS) — an increasingly common feature in modern mining operations.”

“With extended reach, higher digging forces, and an oversized bucket, significantly improving cycle times and lower cost-per-tonne performance — the PC9000 presents operational excellence for mining operations.”

     The PC9000 was developed by Komatsu’s Germany Mining Division (KGM). KGM has had a long and successful partnership with Canadian distributor SMS Equipment and Suncor.

“The Alberta oil sands present some of the harshest mining conditions in the world, defined by abrasive materials, extreme temperatures, and massive daily production volumes, even for large scale mining operations standards.”

     The PC9000-12 is the latest iteration and is available in a shovel or a backhoe configuration and as a diesel-powered version or an electric drive version. It can move 80 tons of material per pass, at a rate of more than 8,000 tons per hour of operation. That is a lot of rock and earth moved in an hour!

     Some of the features and capabilities of the PC9000 are given below:

     An article for Electrek extolls the features of the grid-connected electric drive version:

“The PC9000-12 sets a new benchmark for global surface mining operations,” explains Peter Buhles, Komatsu Vice President, Sales and Service. “With its versatile configurations – including face shovel and backhoe, as well as diesel and electric drive options – we can efficiently serve all major mining operations worldwide. The PC9000-12 delivers the power, performance and reliability our customers expect, while supporting higher productivity, lower emissions per ton and seamless integration with autonomous haulage systems.”

“The grid-connected excavator is just what it says on the tin, in that there’s a big, thick, high-voltage trailing cable that “plugs in” to available power, sending nearly 20 Tesla Superchargers’ worth of current to a pair of massive electric motors putting out a positively mind-bending 4 MW of power – that’s well over 5,300 hp to you and me, and worthy of its own substation, in many cases.”

     The PC9000 is now available globally for a wide variety of surface mining applications. Heavy Equipment Guide notes:

“For heavy equipment enthusiasts and mining professionals, the PC9000 represents more than a new model. It marks a shift in where surface mining technology is headed: toward bigger machines, better integration with autonomous systems, and smarter, more collaborative design processes.”

     The availability of an electric drive mining excavator that can be integrated with autonomous haulers, which may also be electric drive, makes sustainable, decarbonized mining more accessible.

    

 

References:

 

Komatsu’s largest hydraulic mining excavator arrives in Canada: The PC9000 has been delivered to Suncor’s Fort Hills mine, marking a milestone in ultra-class mining equipment deployment. Meghan Barton. Heavy Equipment Guide. May 1, 2025. Komatsu’s largest hydraulic mining excavator

Biggest ever Komatsu PC9000-12 electric excavator goes global. Jo Borrás. Electrek. April 4, 2026. Biggest ever Komatsu PC9000-12 electric excavator goes global

Meet the PC9000. Komatsu (website). Meet the PC9000 | PC9000

Research Breakthrough Suggests That Perovskite Solar Panels Can Reach Over 30% Efficiency If Manufacturing Issues Can Be Solved Via Chemically Guided Manufacturing

   

     Researchers from the Ningbo Institute of Materials Technology and Engineering, part of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, reported a research breakthrough that gives a potentially significant boost to the efficiency of perovskite solar panels. Solar energy technology has been defined over the years by incremental improvements, and if manufacturing issues can be worked out, this could become one of the biggest incremental improvements. The research paper was published in the journal Nature Nanotechnology.

“The research team achieved a certified power conversion efficiency of 30.3% in rigid tandem solar cells and 28.0% in flexible versions, setting an important milestone for this rapidly developing technology.”

     Perovskite solar cells can be made using low-temperature solution processing, which could reduce manufacturing costs and allow lightweight, flexible solar panels to be produced more easily. “All-perovskite tandem” solar cells stack multiple layers of perovskite materials together so they can absorb different parts of sunlight more effectively than single-layer solar cells. Manufacturing them is challenging because the different ingredients inside the perovskite layers often crystallize at different speeds during manufacturing. This uneven crystal growth creates structural defects and unstable regions inside the material, reducing both efficiency and long-term durability.

     The Chinese Academy of Sciences explains how the problem was overcome in the lab:

“To solve this problem, the researchers developed a new strategy based on a chemistry concept called hard-soft acid-base theory, or HSAB theory. Using this approach, they carefully selected chemical additives that help guide how the perovskite materials crystallize.”

“For wide-bandgap perovskites, the team used an additive called difluoro(oxalato)borate, while narrow-bandgap perovskites used tetrafluoroborate. These additives helped synchronize crystal formation throughout the material, creating smoother and more uniform films.”

“The researchers found that the improved crystal growth reduced defects, prevented uneven distribution of chemical components, and lowered internal stress inside the solar cells. This led to major improvements in performance.”

“The efficiency of wide-bandgap solar cells increased from 18.5% to 20.1%, while narrow-bandgap devices improved from 21.6% to 23.3%.”

    The rigid solar cells retained 92% of their original efficiency after operating continuously for 1,000 hours. The flexible versions maintained more than 95% of their performance even after being bent 10,000 times.

     These kinds of improvements mean that one day in the near future it is likely that rooftop space could support more solar energy production as well as higher output and smaller land footprints for utility-scale solar deployments. Of course, higher efficiency also means lower production costs, less pollution, and fewer carbon emissions. For perovskite panels, the two main problems to be overcome are perovskite durability and how to design manufacturing to scale up production. The new breakthrough addresses both concerns, but especially the first, durability. It does this by solving the problems of asynchronous crystallization through a “generalizable additive design strategy guided by hard–soft acid–base principles to synchronize nucleation and crystal growth in both wide- and narrow-bandgap perovskites.”

 

References:

 

Scientists unveil low-cost solar breakthrough as next-gen cells hit record efficiency. Alex Corvin. The Cool Down. May 24, 2026. Scientists unveil low-cost solar breakthrough as next-gen cells hit record efficiency

New perovskite solar cell breakthrough pushes efficiency beyond 30%. Chinese Academy of Sciences -May 12, 2026. Knowridge. New perovskite solar cell breakthrough pushes efficiency beyond 30%

Chemical hardness engineering synchronizes crystallization in perovskite tandems. Ruijia Tian, Kexuan Sun, Yuanyuan Meng, Jiahan Xie, Yaohua Wang, Xiaoyi Lu, Jingnan Wang, Shujing Zhou, Ming Yang, Haibin Pan, Yang Bai, Zhenhua Song, Yingguo Yang, Quan Liu, Bin Han, Bencan Tang, Darren A. Walsh, Hainam Do, Chang Liu & Ziyi Ge. Nature Nanotechnology. (April 27, 2026). Chemical hardness engineering synchronizes crystallization in perovskite tandems | Nature Nanotechnology

 

 

 

Particle Physics and Mineral Exploration Geology Combined: Ideon’s Particle Detectors are Used to Map Subsurface Tomography at High Resolution Via Muons

     Subatomic particles are now being used to map the subsurface in the vicinity of mines. The technology can be employed in mines to map outward from mine shafts and tunnels. Currently, there is a very high demand for minerals, yet the time it takes to develop new mines is very long, usually a decade or more. As a result, more explorers are trying to optimize development in existing mines. Subatomic particles like cosmic rays are being used to do this.

     The article in Scientific American explains the process of block caving, which is being used to optimize the recovery of ores of lower concentration.

“Those massive timelines are driving mining companies to expand older “brownfield” surface mines by going underground, using a method called block caving—a brute-force technique that makes the need for subsurface intelligence more urgent than ever. Widely used in copper and gold mining, block caving is suited to lower-grade ore deposits that are more or less vertically oriented. It works a little like open-pit mining in reverse. Engineers dig underground tunnels, then blast an undercut below the ore body, forming an artificial cavern. Large rock funnels called drawbells are built below the undercut to channel rubble into loaders. Once the setup is complete, the undercut removes the ore body’s support, and the rock above starts to fracture and cave in under its own weight, crushing itself as it funnels into the drawbells.”

     Block caving is cheaper since it relies on gravity to break the ore free. It also keeps the disturbance underground, which reduces the surface impacts of mining. However, block caving is also risky since it can initiate collapses and water infiltration. Expensive infrastructure must be built before it is employed. Mapping the mine walls with subatomic particles can help to understand fracturing dynamics and rock stresses that will determine how the rocks break up when it is block caved.

“British Columbia start-up Ideon Technologies, a spin-off from TRIUMF—Canada’s national particle-accelerator center—has built its business around muon tomography. Gary Agnew, the company’s co-founder and CEO, describes the approach as “the first net new geophysical technique in literally decades.”

“Muons are subatomic particles produced when cosmic rays from supernova explosions interact with matter in Earth’s upper atmosphere. They rain down continuously, traveling at nearly the speed of light and penetrating up to 1.5 kilometers into Earth’s surface.”

     Particle detectors measure how fast the muons move through the rock, enabling the mapping of the density of the subsurface.

“The detectors themselves were once the size of a room, confined to government labs. Ideon has miniaturized its borehole sensors to roughly the diameter of a coffee cup and hardened them for field conditions. “We’ve kind of industrialized particle physics,” Agnew says. “The technology used to find hidden chambers in the pyramids is now working in mine sites a mile deep, under pressure, under temperature.”

     Below, it is explained that muon tomography offers a higher resolution, down to the sub-meter scale, that other subsurface imaging techniques, such as passive seismic, cannot do.

“Muon tomography offers resolution—from about 20 meters down to submeter scale—that competing techniques cannot match. Passive seismic sensing can go deeper than muons but generally offers resolution of only 50 to 100 meters. Many other subsurface-imaging techniques are limited to 2D outputs, showing a big blob on the surface where minerals might be. Critically, whereas other subsurface-imaging techniques are impacted by the operational noise of a working mine, “muons don’t care,” Agnew says.

     The muon tomography is integrated with other subsurface imaging techniques, including seismic, magnetic, gravity, and drill hole data. AI processing of data is also utilized. Large flat detectors can be mounted on mine tunnel walls, or smaller ones can be dropped down boreholes. The ones mounted on the mine walls can collect muons four to five times faster due to their larger surface area. Muon tomography, which, like passive seismic, does not require an external signal source, can map continuously in real-time, which can really help mitigate the risks of block caving. It aids both productivity and safety.

“The consequences of uncertainty can be severe. Last September a mudslide at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Papua, Indonesia—the world’s largest underground block cave and second-largest copper mine—killed seven workers. Phoenix-based Freeport-McMoRan, which operates the mine, blamed the disaster on an uneven collapse that unleashed a flood of mud and rock. Although Ideon’s muon technology was only in a pilot phase at the mine at the time, the tragedy showed the exact kind of unseen hazard the sensors are designed to catch. Freeport said it plans to use an expanded array of muon detectors going forward to map the true shape of the cave and verify that the rock has stabilized before workers return.”

In October 2025, Ideon signed a five-year partnership with Rio Tinto to deploy muon tomography at six of the company’s largest operations. Ideon will apply its proprietary REVEAL subsurface intelligence platform in conjunction with Remote Operations Centres (ROCs) and automation.

“Our partnership goes far beyond technology trials,” added Agnew, “it’s about unlocking the future of mining through real enterprise integration that improves productivity, reduces cost, and increases confidence. By embedding our platform directly into Rio Tinto operations, we’re helping to re-engineer workflows, enabling faster, high confidence exploration and mining decisions. This is how long-term value will be generated in critical mineral exploration and development — scalable, intelligent, and highly integrated.”

     The technology was successfully deployed at Rio Tinto’s Kennecott Mine near Salt Lake City, which has been in operation since 1903. They also needed to map voids caused by past artisanal mining that can trap water and high-pressure air.

     Agnew also notes that the current rush for critical minerals is driving innovation, just like perceived shortages helped the U.S. oil & gas industry innovate from shortages to surpluses in natural gas and oil. Muon tomography does two very important things: increases the accuracy of production estimates and identifies potentially dangerous subsurface situations such as voids and fracturing weaknesses.

     Below is a link to a video from Ideon's website, which gives a nice, very visual overview of its muon detection mapping technology

     

Ideon REVEAL™ Platform | Technology Stack

References:

 

Mining companies are using cosmic rays to find critical minerals: As rich ore gets harder to find, the mining industry is using subatomic particles to map rock deep underground. Adam Bluestein, edited by Eric Sullivan. Scientific American. April 14, 2026. How cosmic rays are helping mining companies find critical minerals underground | Scientific American

Ideon and Rio Tinto Global Partnership Applies Next-Generation Subsurface Intelligence to Reduce Cost and Accelerate Critical Minerals Supply. Ideon. October 6, 2025. Ideon and Rio Tinto Global Partnership Applies Next-Generation Subsurface Intelligence to Reduce Cost and Accelerate Critical Minerals Supply - Ideon Technologies

Methylobacteria Propagating Inside Fog Metabolize and Neutralize Formaldehyde from Smog

 

     Researchers at Arizona State University discovered that bacteria propagating and thriving inside fog droplets break down formaldehyde, a toxic pollutant linked to smog and respiratory problems, at rates up to 200 times faster than bacteria in cloud water. Thus, one might say that fog cleans the air of formaldehyde. The study was published in the journal mBio. Researchers observed 32 fog events across two years in central Pennsylvania and revealed that fog droplets are teeming with bacterial life. According to Gadget Review:

“Post-fog air showed 45% higher bacterial counts, with researchers observing enlarged, dividing cells-clear evidence of reproduction inside the droplets. Lead researcher Thi Thuong Thuong Cao noted, “We observed them getting bigger and they’re dividing,” confirming fog as an active breeding ground rather than passive transport medium.”

“Methylobacterium, distinctive pink-pigmented bacteria, comprised nearly one-third of all fog microbes-far exceeding their presence in surrounding dry air. “When you take all of the droplets together, the concentration of bacteria is the same as in the ocean,” explained ASU’s Ferran Garcia-Pichel. These microbes specialize in detoxifying formaldehyde, achieving 95% biological breakdown through metabolic processes that neutralize rather than simply consume the pollutant.”

     The research also shows that there is a strong biological component to some atmospheric chemistry processes. The research also upends atmospheric modeling and must now be taken into account. Another implication of the study involves so-called fog-harvesting, where communities use fog nets for water collection in arid regions. When they do so, they are disrupting the bacteria’s work in breaking down formaldehyde. Methylobacterium is mostly harmless butsome strains pose some infection risks for immunocompromised individuals. The levels of bacteria found in fog were found to be very similar to the levels found in seawater, even though only 1% of the fog droplets contain bacteria.

     The authors noted that fog and its effects on the atmosphere have not been studied enough. More study is needed on the bacterial composition of fogs. Fog effectively becomes a habitat for bacteria. It is difficult to study fog since measurements are needed before, during, and after the fog develops and fades. The presence of wind makes that very difficult. Thus, the research here focused on “radiation fog, which forms on still, calm nights when the ground cools and the air just above it cools with it, until moisture condenses close to the surface.”

     According to earth.com:

“The bacteria were clearing the formaldehyde so fast, though, that simple eating didn’t fully explain it.”

“The team found that at high concentrations, formaldehyde becomes toxic to the bacteria themselves, so they break it down into carbon dioxide to keep their environment safe.”

“The bacteria are not just consuming a pollutant. They’re detoxifying the air as an act of self-preservation and in doing so, making it cleaner for everyone else too.”

     According to Phys.org:

"It's relatively new that people are starting to look at biological activities in clouds, so there's still a lot which we don't understand," adds Pierre Herckes, a co-author and professor in the School of Molecular Sciences. "At nighttime, for example, there isn't that much atmospheric chemistry going on. Chemistry is largely driven by the sun and by light. But if the bacteria are still doing their thing even during the nighttime, they can be important."

     Below, the paper explains why the detoxifying reaction mechanism for self-preservation makes up the bulk of the utilization of formaldehyde by the methylbacteria. The authors also consider that other volatile organic compounds could be utilized by bacteria as well, indicating an area for further study.

“Multiple lines of evidence, including increases in the aerobiome size with intervening fog events, its dependence on temperature, the presence of larger cells, and the high frequency of dividing cells, all speak for a fog water microbiome that is also capable of growth in nebula. While one could find alternative explanations for each of these phenomena separately, in situ growth remains the most parsimonious explanation for all concurrently. That the conditions for heterotrophic activity based on C1 compounds like formaldehyde that are available in the air lead to exceptionally high biodegradation rates in the fog water microbiome is consistent with that notion. However, only a fraction of the formaldehyde processed could be used directly for growth, and most of the activity must serve as a detoxification mechanism.”

References:

 

Scientists are stunned: Your local fog bank is eating toxic chemicals at "impossible" speeds. Nikshep Myle. Gadget Review. May 13, 2026. Scientists are stunned: Your local fog bank is eating toxic chemicals at "impossible" speeds

Fog is teeming with bacteria that eat pollutants and clean the air you breathe. India Today. May 17, 2026. Fog is teeming with bacteria that eat pollutants and clean the air you breathe - India Today

Growth and formaldehyde degradation of photoheterotrophic Methylobacterium within radiation fogs. Thi Thuong Thuong Cao, Pierre Herckes, Derek Straub, Soumyadev Sarkar, and Ferran Garcia-Pichel. Environmental Microbiology. Research Article. 11 May 2026. Growth and formaldehyde degradation of photoheterotrophic Methylobacterium within radiation fogs | mBio

The fog is alive: Droplets host bacteria that clear toxins from our air. Arizona State University. Phys.org. edited by Stephanie Baum, reviewed by Robert Egan. May 12, 2026. The fog is alive: Droplets host bacteria that clear toxins from our air

Fog is alive and quietly cleaning pollution from the air. Andrei Ionescu. Earth.com May 13, 2026. Fog is alive and quietly cleaning pollution from the air - Earth.com

U.S. Coast Guard Deploys 33-Foot Autonomous Sailboats Powered by Wind, Sun, and Batteries in the Great Lakes for Search & Rescue Missions, Illegal Fishing Intelligence, and Border Control: They Can Run Continuously for Months Without a Crew

      Autonomous sailboats are now patrolling the Great Lakes looking for illegal fishing, providing border control, and at the ready for search and Rescue missions. These are 33-foot boats with 19-foot masts. Coast Guard vessels normally are required to refuel every three days, but these autonomous baits can operate for months without maintenance requiring humans. Two are operating in Lake Erie, two in Lake Superior, with plans to deploy one each in Lake Huron and Lake Ontario. Lake Michigan won’t get one since it doesn’t share a border with Canada.

     Primary propulsion for the boats is provided by wind and solar power. The battery-powered onboard electric motor is secondary and used for specific maneuvering when it is needed. These boats provide a much lower-cost alternative to traditional manned marine diesel-fueled boats.

     The company Saildrone is providing the boats. They are also working with the U.S. Navy to develop an armed version of the boats. They currently have 70 of these boats deployed around the world, including deployments in the Middle East, the Pacific, and the Arabian Gulf.

     The uncrewed sailboats are equipped with radar, cameras, and collision-avoidance technology.

     Saildrone has other offerings that detect submarines and can effectively conduct anti-submarine warfare. These are equipped with sonar and other submarine surveillance methods. They have stealthier boats as well that can reach higher speeds and are less detectable. Other versions of these sea-drones can map the ocean depths, perform coastal mapping ops, and perform environmental sensing. Some can be used for anti-narcotics trafficking ops, undersea cable surveying, hurricane monitoring, and maritime migration management as well. They are shown below.

References:

 

Forget aerial drones — the Coast Guard’s new Lake Erie vessels are 33-foot autonomous sailboats. Today in Ohio, cleveland.com. Cleveland Plain Dealer. May 11, 2026. Forget aerial drones — the Coast Guard’s new Lake Erie vessels are 33-foot autonomous sailboats

U.S. Coast Guard now using drones to safeguard Lake Erie. Cleveland.com. May 8, 2026. U.S. Coast Guard now using drones to safeguard Lake Erie - cleveland.com

Introducing Saildrone Spectre. Saildrone. (Website) Saildrone: Detect. Deter. Dominate.

 

Current and Forecasted Market Capitalization of Selected New and Emerging Technologies: AI, Quantum Tech, 6G, Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing), Computational Fluid Dynamics, and Automation/Robotics

     I was curious about this, so I did some quick research to estimate comparative market caps for these new technologies. AI dominates, with a current market cap estimated at $53 trillion. The AI market cap is about 36 times the next highest market cap, which is automation and robotics. AI market cap is about 2600 times that of the lowest on the list, which is quantum computing technology, a newer, currently less applicable, and less developed technology. However, the forecast for quantum tech is only to 2030, not 2035,

     The second-highest tech market cap is automation and robotics, which is about 5 times that of additive manufacturing. Estimates vary widely for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and 6G.

     It should be noted that these technologies are often used together.

     Additive manufacturing is expected to grow by about 6 times over the next decade, computational fluid dynamics by 2 times, and 6G by about 12 times. AI and automation growth will likely grow much faster than these, but I didn’t find readily available data for them. AI is the future, at least for now, followed by automation and robotics, additive manufacturing, 6G, CFD, and quantum tech.

  

Methylsiloxanes Found to Be One of the Most Common Synthetic Chemicals in Air Pollution: Engine Lubricants Were Found to Be the Source of Most of Them

   

     New research has confirmed that methylsiloxanes, a group of silicone-based chemicals, are one of the most common synthetic chemicals found in air pollution. Researchers from Utrecht University and the University of Groningen published the findings in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. They measured high levels of the chemicals across Europe and South America. Methylsiloxanes are common ingredients in personal care products, industrial materials, household goods, and lubricating oils. The study found that vehicle and ship exhaust release more methylsiloxanes than previously thought. The researchers estimated that methylsiloxanes account for about 2% to 4.3% of organic aerosols in the atmosphere, making them among the most common synthetic materials found in air pollution. Urban areas were found to have higher levels of the chemicals. The levels of these chemicals in the air exceed those of PFAS, microplastics, and nanoplastics.

     Methylsiloxanes are chemically stable, which keeps them accumulating in the air. Not much is known about their health effects. The study suggests that over half of methylsiloxanes may be coming from vehicle exhaust. More research is needed to determine how long they remain in the air and the effects of long-term exposure.

     According to The Business Standard:

“Researchers explained that engine lubricants containing methylsiloxanes can enter combustion chambers during vehicle operation. Because the compounds are highly heat-resistant, they do not fully break down and are released into the air through exhaust emissions.”

     Methylsiloxanes can modify aerosol surface tension, influencing how aerosols affect cloud formation. They may also interfere with ice nucleation, which also affects cloud formation and other atmospheric processes. In turn, they may also affect climate change. The paper notes:

“Their surface-tension-lowering and antifreezing properties may further influence the physical behavior and climatic effects of aerosols.”

The researchers found that large molecular methylsiloxanes have a similar dispersion pattern to long-chain hydrocarbons, which are commonly present in engine oil. These similarities strongly suggest that the compounds share the same emission source, which is engine oil lubricants.

     According to Phys.org:

“Interestingly, the concentration of these long-chain hydrocarbons does decrease strongly during atmospheric transport and dilution, whereas the concentration of methylsiloxane does not. In fact, a substantial fraction persists as large molecular methylsiloxanes. According to the researchers, this underscores that large molecular methylsiloxanes are chemically very stable and likely to be transported over long distances.”

     The methylsiloxanes were detected via thermal-desorption proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry. The lower concentrations found in rural areas and forests suggest that dilution occurs with transport, as would be expected.

 

References:

 

Scientists discover little-known pollutant now widespread in the air. Hope Nguyen. The Cool Down. May 14, 2026. Scientists discover little-known pollutant now widespread in the air

Scientists find widespread silicone pollutant in air, raising health and climate concerns. The Business Standard. May 13, 2026. Scientists find widespread silicone pollutant in air, raising health and climate concerns | The Business Standard

A newly recognized pollutant is widely present in the atmosphere. Utrecht University. edited by Stephanie Baum, reviewed by Robert Egan. Phys.org. April 16, 2026. A newly recognized pollutant is widely present in the atmosphere

Widespread occurrence of large molecular methylsiloxanes in ambient aerosols. Peng Yao, Rupert Holzinger, Beatriz Sayuri Oyama, Agne Masalaite, Dipayan Paul, Haiyan Ni, Hanne Noto, Dušan Materić, Maria de Fátima Andrade, Ru-Jin Huang, and Ulrike Dusek. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics. Volume 26, issue 7. ACP, 26, 5005–5018, 2026. ACP - Widespread occurrence of large molecular methylsiloxanes in ambient aerosols

Aerosol Particles, Partly from Coal Pollution, Block Sunlight and Reduce PV Solar Output: New Study Quantifies the Effects

      The University of Oxford and University College London (UCL) recently conducted and published new research assessing and mapping more than 140,000 solar photovoltaic (solar PV) installations around the world. The results were published in the journal Nature Sustainability. They used satellite and atmospheric data on air pollution to calculate how much sunlight is lost from pollution aerosol particles and how this reduces electricity generation. They found that pollution from coal-fired power plants “significantly reduces” the energy output of solar PV installations, particularly where the coal and solar facilities are close together. They found that the aerosol particles suspended in the air reduced global solar electricity by 5.8% in 2023. They compared the losses of electricity output to the level of new output for the year for newly built facilities and found that the lost output (74TWh) was nearly one-third the new output average for the years 2017-2023 (246.6TWh).

     According to Euro News:

“Coal plants emit fine pollution particles that scatter and absorb sunlight, which reduces the amount that reaches nearby solar panels. Dr Song explains that air pollution doesn’t just block sunlight, but also changes clouds which can cut solar power even further.”

“That means the real impact is likely to be bigger than we’ve measured, so we may be overestimating how much solar power can contribute to reducing emissions if we do not get pollution from coal power under control,” he adds.

“This effect was particularly evident in China, where solar and coal capacity have expanded in parallel and are often co-located. Regions with high coal capacity aligned closely with areas experiencing the greatest solar PV losses.”

     The coal plant image given in the Euro News article is one that is close to where I live in Southeast Ohio, although I am happily upwind of it. I may even be powered by it, I am not sure.

     China is the world's largest solar energy producer as well as the world’s largest coal energy producer, and the co-location of these plants there has especially blocked solar output. This is likely a factor why Chinese solar efficiency is lower than the global average. The researchers found that Chinese solar output dropped by 7.7% due to aerosols compared to the global average of 5.8%. They estimate that 29% of aerosol-related solar PV losses in China come specifically from coal-fired power plants.

     Phys.org explains that the global solar output losses in 2023 due to aerosols amount to 111TWh, equivalent to the output of 18 medium-sized coal-fired power plants. Stricter emissions standards from coal plants and retrofitting plants with ultra-low emissions (ULE) technologies have led to less aerosol-related losses in China:

“Aerosol-related solar PV losses declined by an average of 0.96 TWh per year (−1.4% annually) between 2013 and 2023.”

     This suggests that aerosol losses were previously above 10% in China.

     Satellite imagery and machine learning were employed in the study. Author Professor Jan-Peter Muller (Mullard Space Science Laboratory at UCL) said:

"Global satellite imaging enabled us to map the inexorable rise of cheap non-polluting solar power during daylight hours. In the near future, we will be able to observe the impacts of dust and smoke particles on reducing solar energy at Earth's surface in real-time every 10 minutes from geostationary satellites spanning Earth."

     The results show that modeled solar output is often overestimated due to not taking the effects of aerosols into account.

  

References:

 

Blocked sunlight and changing clouds: How coal pollution is damaging our solar potential. Liam Gilliver. Euro News. May 15, 2026. Blocked sunlight and changing clouds: How coal pollution is damaging our solar potential

Coal pollution is cutting solar power output worldwide, study finds. Science X staff. Phys.org. May 15, 2026. Coal pollution is cutting solar power output worldwide, study finds

Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition. Rui Song, Feng Yin, Jan-Peter Muller, Adam C. Povey, Basudev Swain, Chenchen Huang & Roy G. Grainger. Nature Sustainability. May 15, 2026. Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition | Nature Sustainability