Latest U.S. Coal Revival Plans Include Building Large New Plant in West Virginia, Which is Already Powered by 87% Coal

    

      The state of West Virginia only recently became less than 90% coal powered as other sources came online. In fact, natural gas recently overtook wind power to become the second largest generation source in the state. This is despite the availability of abundant natural gas and some of the least expensive natural gas in the country. The coal lobby is very strong in the state and has long opposed natural gas power. The state has the highest per capita carbon emissions and, more importantly, likely the highest per capita air pollution emissions from the power sector in the country. Wyoming rivals it with coal-fired output, but Wyoming is a state with a lower population and is not near population centers in nearby states, unlike West Virginia. The state produces more power than it consumes, so some of its production is exported to nearby states. Thus, it also exports coal power for consumption in nearby states.

     I was a bit flabbergasted to read that the U.S. Dept. of Energy is planning to offer millions in funding for a new 1.6 GW coal-fired plant in West Virginia. If that plant were online today, it would bring the coal share back up to 89%. The state is an aberration, being powered by coal far more than any other state (except Wyoming). I also think the administration has been overly cautious in ordering the delay of some coal plant retirements. The utility companies in those states, some red, some blue, generally say the retirement delays are not needed.  

     Trump said that coal-powered electricity is cheaper, so I thought I would look at the EIA data. West Virginia, 87% coal-powered, had an average residential electricity price of 16.37 cents per kW-hour. I first compared with nearby states that have less but still significant amounts of coal production. Ohio is at 18.78 cents/kWh, and Pennsylvania is at 20.92 cents/kW-hr. However, when I looked at nearby Virginia, which is powered by natural gas (56.5%), nuclear (26.3%), solar (8.45%), coal (3.36%), and biomass (3.33%), I saw that the residential electricity price as just 17.05 cents/kW-hr, only slightly more expensive than nearly all-coal West Virginia, with barely any coal -fired power. Thus, the argument that coal-powered electricity is cheaper has some truth to it, but it is really just slightly cheaper. Many states with far less coal-fired power produce it cheaper than West Virginia. There are many different reasons for power cost differences, but the argument that coal power is cheaper is not a super-strong one to promote coal. It is likely only moderately cheaper. If negative externalities like air quality degradation are accounted for, the societal expense of coal goes up, not to mention carbon emissions.

     The Trump administration has announced two new coal-fired plants in Anchorage, Alaska, and Mt. Storm, West Virginia, which would total 2.85 GW of capacity. They would be the first new U.S. coal plants to come online since 2013. They announced $850 million in funding for the two new plants and various upgrades to 17 existing facilities.

    David Jenkins, president of Conservatives for Responsible Stewardship, had some harsh words about the announcement:

“{It is} swamp politics at its worst, and there is nothing even remotely conservative about it.”

     As in several of the administration’s moves, they cited an emergency situation, invoking the Defense Production Act funding to expand the coal industry.

“Last year we prevented 17 GW of coal-powered electricity from going offline. That’s enough power for about 13 million homes, and at a very low price. It’s the lowest price,” Trump said of coal resources.

     Of course, most of those plants were operating at very low utilization rates, far below their capacities. The most inefficient plants are commonly the first to face retirement, in addition to the oldest ones.

     According to Utility Dive:

“This move, along with the President blocking the retirement of old coal plants that are too costly to operate, is making most Americans poorer,” Jenkins said. “This is a total misuse of the Defense Production Act, a giant giftwrapped payout to subsidize and prop up a flailing industry that can no longer compete in the free market.”

     Below, they summarize some of the planned upgrades:

“In a separate announcement, DOE said four projects will receive up to $350 million under the agency’s “Restoring Reliability: Coal Recommissioning and Modernization” initiative, to add or preserve roughly 3.6 GW of coal-fired capacity.”    

     Energy Secretary Chris Wright had this to say:

“Americans are upset about high electricity prices,” Wright said at the White House event. “Blame closing existing, reliable, secure plants, and replacing them with subsidized, unreliable plants — a guaranteed way to drive electricity prices up.”

     What he doesn’t mention is that natural gas plants are reliable, more dispatchable than coal since they can be ramped up and down more easily, and can provide baseload power as cheaply as coal in many places, and can do it much cleaner than coal. It is true that more intermittent renewables on the grid drive up power prices. That is a good argument for slowing down the transition to cleaner power, but, of course, it is not a reason to abandon it. In the case of West Virginia, it should have a massive abundance of baseload, generally dispatchable power, but that coal power is not as readily dispatchable as natural gas power.

 

References:

 

Trump administration announces $850M to modernize US coal capacity, build two new plants. Robert Walton. Utility Dive. June 5, 2026. Trump administration announces $850M to modernize US coal capacity, build 2 new plants | Utility Dive

List of power stations in West Virginia. Wikipedia. List of power stations in West Virginia - Wikipedia

Electric Power Monthly: Table 5.6.A. Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State, March 2026 and 2025 (Cents per Kilowatthour). Energy Information Administration. Electric Power Monthly - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

List of power stations in Virginia. Wikipedia. List of power stations in Virginia - Wikipedia

Cuba is Scrambling to Deploy Solar Energy Amid Oil Blockade: Chinese Workers Have Been Helping, Starting Before the Blockade, Now Accelerating

      Cuba is fast-tracking and expanding its solar deployment amid the current U.S. oil blockade on the country. China is helping Cuba deploy solar. Even before the blockade, the country was struggling with frequent and sometimes long power blackouts due to an inadequate power grid, creating a severe energy crisis. These days, they can last longer than 24 hours.

     I have noted before that while I agree that pressure is needed on Cuba and the regime needs to be fixed or changed, the blockade is not the best way to go about it. It creates a humanitarian disaster that hurts everyone in the country, not just the government. According to CNN, Cuba is:

“…currently pulling off one of the fastest solar revolutions on the planet, with help from China.”

     The solar push began well before the blockade. According to the Washington Post:

Chinese exports of solar equipment to Cuba “skyrocketed from about $5 million in 2023 to $117 million in 2025 and show no sign of stopping. Beijing pledged last year to help Cuba build more than 92 solar parks by 2028, and more than half of these projects have come online.” Along with providing materials, Chinese companies “have also been facilitating installation” and “working directly in Cuba to build solar farms.”

     The Cuban government has announced plans to move to 100% renewable power by 2050, but that is not likely to solve its energy problems, even if successful, due to the limitations of intermittent power.

     According to ‘The Week US’:

“The “installation of 52 solar photovoltaic parks has been completed, contributing more than 1,000 MWp and generating, at peak output, 38% of the energy consumed during daylight hours,” said Granma, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Cuban Communist Party. Renewable energy “now accounts for some 10% of the island’s electricity, up from 3.6% in 2024,” said The Associated Press. However, “distribution remains limited, and few Cubans can afford such a system.”

“While solar power and renewable energy in general have ramped up in Cuba, it is “highly unlikely that, considering their current situation today, Cuba could achieve the goal of 100% renewables by the year 2050,” Jorge Piñon, a researcher at the University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute, said to NBC News. The “surge may be rapid but solar power is not yet available at scale,” said CNN. Cuba’s solar parks are “small and scattered.” Solar power is “also only generated when the sun shines, meaning it cannot meet peak evening demand.”

     They note that the wealthier areas of Cuba, such as Havana, have more batteries deployed and are likely the only areas to succeed with solar plus battery options for round-the-clock power. Rural areas and poor areas likely won’t see much improvement from solar, and certainly won’t be able to afford expensive battery backup.

     Ultimately, we need a Cuba free of communist dictators, free of Russians, free of alliances with other U.S. adversaries, and with a democratic government. Then the country can rejoin the international community and become free and prosperous. Well over half century of oppressive government has done little for the country.

   

 

 

References:

 

Cuba’s solar expansion is happening fast. Devika Rao. The Week US. May 27, 2026. Cuba’s solar expansion is happening fast

First Craneless Installation of a Wind Turbine in Namibia is An Important Milestone That May Lower Future Installation Costs

      Fortescue subsidiary Nabrawind successfully erected a utility-scale turbine without the use of a giant crane in a wind industry first in Namibia. This makes it possible to erect turbines in windier conditions since operating giant cranes is limited to low wind conditions, and they must wait for the wind to die down before they can be used. The giant cranes are also difficult to transport to remote areas. Once the approach is perfected, this could lower costs for utility-scale wind farms. Nabrawind installed its first Goldwind GW165/6000 turbine at Namibia's InnoVent Diaz wind farm using what it calls its Total Self-Erecting System (SES) and Skylift technology. The crane in the pictures below is not being used. It is only there if needed. It was not needed.

     An article in The Cool Down notes the advantages of the company’s craneless turbine deployment system:

“The system can function in unstable winds of around 15 meters per second, or about 33 miles per hour, with gusts reaching 20 m/s, or about 45 mph. Conventional cranes, by comparison, may be limited to roughly six to eight m/s (13 to about 18 mph) during some key installation steps.”

“The company also said the technology can work with multiple existing turbine and tower types, rather than just a single custom design.”

“If the method proves repeatable, it could help solve one of the biggest logistical challenges in wind development: transporting enormous equipment to remote sites and then waiting for perfect weather conditions to use it.”

“Less downtime and less heavy transport could translate into lower project costs, shorter construction timelines, and more dependable deployment.”

     According to Electrek:

“The InnoVent Diaz wind farm will eventually feature seven Goldwind GW165/6000 wind turbines deployed with Nabrawind’s Total SES and Skylift solutions, enabling the company to demonstrate both the repeatability of the processes and their ability to handle complex installation procedures a broader range of environmental conditions.”

     The company’s goal is to decrease the installation time to a net cycle time of one week by the time they get to the seventh one.

     Below, a commenter further explains how the alternative erection system works:    

References:

 

Wind turbine installed without giant crane in breakthrough test. Brooklyn Smith. The Cool Down. June 4, 2026. Wind turbine installed without giant crane in breakthrough test

Fortescue Nabrawind deploy first crane-less wind turbine in Africa. Jo Borrás. Electrek. May 30, 2026. Fortescue Nabrawind deploy first crane-less wind turbine in Africa

Quaise Energy’s Project Obsidian Details Released: Millimeter Wave Drilling Expected to Make Vitrified Boreholes for Superhot Geothermal Energy Production

     Phase 1 of Quaise Energy’s Project Obsidian is underway in Oregon as construction commenced in April. The goal of the project is to tap into hot rock greater than 300 degrees C (572 degrees F). The project is hoped to be operational and producing power in 2030. The first power plant is slated to make 50MW of low-emissions baseload power.  Phase 2 is expected to target 250MW, and the final goal for the area is 1GW of power production capacity.

     Quaise has been working on its subsurface and heat modeling. According to Daniel W. Dichter, a senior mechanical engineer at Quaise:

“This analysis validates our long-held hypothesis that higher subsurface temperatures entail substantial improvements in power production. It shows us that we can get to a capacity of 50 megawatts of power with this system.”

“If these first wells work the way we think they will, they will be on par with exceptionally productive oil and gas wells in terms of equivalent power output.”

     Phase 1 plans are detailed below:

“The first phase of Project Obsidian will consist of two separate geothermal well systems. One will target rock at temperatures reaching as high as 365 degrees Celsius (689 degrees F) with an average temperature of 315 degrees C. The other will target rock at temperatures as high as 415 degrees (779 degrees F) with an average temperature of 365 degrees C.”

“Why build two systems targeting different temperatures? The one targeting an average of 315 degrees C, says Dichter, “is on the cusp of what is achievable today, so it’s lower technical risk. With what we learn from that system, we’ll go to the hotter one, which is riskier.”

     Quaise has classified its project criteria into three types: Tier I, which accesses shallow superhot rock, which is only available in certain places. Project Obsidian is being developed in a Tier I location; Tier II locations will drill to rocks at intermediary geothermal gradients, which make up nearly 40% of the world; Tier III involves drilling as much as 19 kilometers down (about 12 miles). That will be the real test for millimeter wave drilling, since it will exceed the deepest drilled wells globally. Quaise’s process involves drilling down first with the conventional rotary drilling technology utilized in the oil & gas industry, then drilling the deeper basement rocks, typically granite and other igneous rock, with millimeter wave technology. Theoretically, once Tier I and Tier II sites are developed, learning from that can be applied to Tier III sites.

     Below are some of the details of the first drilling to be done at the site:

“Each of the two well systems, in turn, comprises three wells. Water will be pumped down one of these to the hot rock. The two wells on either side will capture the hot water that results from flowing through the hot rock. Contributing to the project’s small footprint: the pipes conveying water to and from the SHR {superhot rock} formation have a maximum inner diameter of only about ten inches.”

“The first phase of Project Obsidian will also have a seventh, or confirmation, well. This one—the first to be drilled— will give the Quaise team key information on variables including the geomechanical, or physical, properties of the superhot rock. These data will dictate, for example, how the team fractures rock at depth to create pathways for water to flow.”

“The confirmation well is expected to be in operation later this year.”

      Below, what may be learned by Phase I to improve the project is given.

History and Potential of Millimeter Wave Drilling and Borehole Vitrification

     An article for the American Ceramic Society explores the science and technology of millimeter drilling. Higher temperatures and pressures in deeper rocks can cause conventional tungsten carbide or diamond-tipped drill bits to fail. The mechanical teeth are pulverized, and the bearings wear down to nothing in a matter of hours. Hard rock drilling in hard granitic rocks can drop to less than a meter per hour and lead to multiple hours-long tripping out and in of drill pipe to change the bit. The article explains:

“Millimeter wave (MMW) drilling is a paradigm-shifting directed-energy approach to achieving universal superhot rock access by melting and vaporizing rock rather than grinding it. It is more efficient than traditional drilling because there are no cutting heads to wear out. Rather than fighting the superhard bedrock, it simply melts it out of the way…”

“MMW drilling leverages a well-established nuclear fusion technology: the gyrotron. A gyrotron is a high-powered vacuum tube that emits millimeter-wave electromagnetic radiation. These waves are traditionally used to heat plasma in fusion reactors, but ceramic engineers may also use them to sinter advanced ceramics. In the case of MMW drilling, the gyrotron is used to melt and vaporize the hard bedrock.”

     The long wavelengths of the energy beam generated by the gyrotron make it much more efficient for heating and melting rock, up to five times more efficient than shorter wavelengths.

“High-pressure gas streams (such as nitrogen or argon) are continuously injected downhole to flash-cool the hot rock vapors into fine nanoparticles, flushing them cleanly up and out of the wellbore.”

“The intense high-frequency thermal energy fundamentally alters the borehole walls. As the primary beam vaporizes the central core of the hole, the peripheral heat partially melts the surrounding rock walls. As this molten layer cools, it transforms into a permanent glass-like liner. Vitrification has the following intrinsic advantages:”

     In 2009, scientists at MIT validated millimeter wave drilling. The MIT scientists and some geothermal geologists and engineers from AltaRock Energy founded Quaise Energy in 2018. They got an ARPA-E grant in 2019 and secured $6 million in seed funding in 2020.

“Quaise’s long-term goal is to deploy MMW drilling rigs at soon-to-be-decommissioned coal and natural gas power plants. By drilling deep, localized superhot rock loops at these facilities, they can swap out the old fossil-fuel boilers and feed clean geothermal energy directly into the plant’s turbines and export it through the existing electrical grid connection. This setup preserves local energy jobs and saves trillions in capital expenditures.”

     There are still some engineering challenges to be worked out as the technology is further validated. They are listed below:

     As the abstract from a paper about Project Obsidian, published in the Proceedings of the 51st Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering at Stanford University notes, the project is an enhanced geothermal project that requires hydraulically fracturing the impermeable rock after drilling and adding water to the newly created reservoir. The abstract discusses the well and power plant configurations.

      According to the paper:

“The wells are planned to be drilled vertically until reaching approximately 2 km TVD, after which they back-track slightly, then follow a straight path inclined at 45°. This inclination provides horizontality in the feedzone such that the wells can be connected by a series of fractures, which are expected to propagate approximately in the vertical direction. The chosen inclination angle may be modified within the approximate range of 45-80° based on confirmation well results, challenges associated with high-temperature directional drilling, and stimulation modeling. Regardless of the inclination angle, the trajectory is planned to provide a feedzone measuring at least 1 km long as projected onto the ground plane. The producer wells have a 7” outer diameter casing below about 2.5 km TVD, and a 9 5/8” outer diameter casing above; the injector wells have similar trajectories with a 7” outer diameter casing throughout.”

     Below is a graph of the modeled energetic power in MW vs. Enthalpy in kJ/kg.

 

 

References:

 

Quaise Energy on track to build world’s first power plant using superhot geothermal energy. Elizabeth A. Thomson. April 22, 2026. Quaise Energy. Quaise Energy on track to build world’s first power… | Quaise Energy

Concept of a High-Temperature EGS Plant in Central Oregon. Daniel W. Dichter, Trenton T. Cladouhos, Quinlan Byrne, Victor J. Rustom, and Greg Szutiak. PROCEEDINGS, 51st  Workshop on Geothermal Reservoir Engineering. Stanford University, Stanford, California, February 9-11, 2026. SGP-TR-230. Concept of a High-Temperature EGS Plant in Central Oregon

Millimeter-wave drilling: Extracting geothermal energy through vitrified boreholes. Ceramic Tech Today. The American Ceramic Society. May 28, 2026. Millimeter-wave drilling: Extracting geothermal energy through vitrified boreholes - The American Ceramic Society

 

 

Hydrostor’s Compressed Energy Storage Technology Requires Caverns Built in Igneous or Metamorphic Rock, A Closed-Loop Water Reservoir, and Both Air and Water Shafts

      Company Hydrostor has patented its compressed air energy storage (CAES) technology, which utilizes constructed caverns in igneous or metamorphic rock. The company builds its caverns in a ‘room-and-pillar’ fashion, similar to underground mines. The system uses air pressure provided by large compressors and water pressure provided by water pumped in and out from a surface reservoir.

     Building the system in igneous and metamorphic rock severely limits where it can be deployed, but those rocks have low porosity and permeability, so that air and water do not leak out, which would make the system less effective. When the air is injected into the cavern, the water is pushed out to the surface reservoir.

“To increase the energy density of the cavern and improve the operating efficiency, the cavern is flooded with water and connected to a water reservoir on the ground surface – referred to as hydrostatic compensation.”

     Below, it is shown how the caverns are constructed.

     Below is the company’s Willow Rock Energy Storage project in Kern County, California, which is at an advanced stage of development. The company also has active projects in Australia, Ontario, Canada, and near Phoenix, Arizona.

     The technology is basically emissions-free when it is running, but things like cavern construction and rock analysis through drilling cores are generally emissions-intensive. There is no information about costs, which are likely to be high, especially for the cavern and shaft building. The rock removed needs to be stored or moved for disposal. Moving rock is energy-intensive, and storing it may have environmental impacts. I have not seen anything about the economics of these projects, but they are likely to be very high, as most long- duration energy storage (LDES) projects are. This limits their applicability. Thus, issues like cost and the lack of availability of suitable rocks will limit where such facilities can be built. However, LDES projects can provide important benefits to places where intermittent renewables are saturating power grids by storing excess generation and limiting the need for backup power that is often provided by natural gas.

   

 

References:

 

What Lies Beneath: Unearthing Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage. Hydrostor. 2026. What Lies Beneath – Unearthing Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage - Hydrostor

 

LGBTQ Rights are Basic Human Rights, and We Should Accept Them as Such

 

 

       It’s Pride month, so I will post about LGBTQ issues, specifically the data on its growing acceptability around the world, and where it is dangerous. In some societies, it is not acceptable, and people found guilty of it are imprisoned, tortured, and generally treated badly. Many people see homosexuality as a crime, as unnatural, as a disease, or as something to scorn and choose to shame those involved with it. Homosexuals were tortured and killed by the Nazis, just as the Jews and Roma people were, all considered less than human. Is it unnatural? If you have ever had farm animals or even pets for that matter, you would know that it is indulged in by animals. That certainly suggests that it is not unnatural at all, but a common feature of nature.

     Some people will point out that many child molesters indulge in homosexual behavior. This is true, but it is often perpetrated by people who are not openly gay or bisexual, and often by those who openly oppose such behavior even though they indulge in it privately in a criminal way.

     Many people like the events of Pride Month, but others hate them, especially things like gay parades. Societies where human rights are suppressed, like Russia, openly hate gay behavior, seeing it as too open and associating it with more permissive European societies. Perhaps they see it as “satanic,” like some religious groups see it.

     As the graph below from humanprogress.org shows, the legality of homosexuality continues to grow around the world and is not likely to backtrack.

     GZero World notes that while acceptance of homosexuality continues to increase, there is still much opposition to it, and the world remains divided about it.

“Twenty-five years ago, the Netherlands became the first country to legalize same-sex marriage. Thirty-seven countries have since followed — but same-sex marriage remains illegal in far more places than it's legal. In Sweden, 92% support it. In Nigeria, just 2%. As Pride Month begins, the world remains deeply divided on LGBTQ rights.”

     Below, they give the data on same sex marriage for selected countries. The graphic is based on Pew research that shows the percentage of people in different countries who support or oppose same sex marriage.

     Acceptance of same sex marriage allows those people to enjoy the same rights afforded to couples with heterosexual marriages, such as tax advantages, spouse medical coverage, and other rights afforded to spouses. This is simply an issue of fairness.

     I think we can glean from the data that strongly religious in general oppose it, including majority Christian societies (Hungary, Kenya), Muslim societies (Indonesia, Malaysia, and likely many more not listed here), Jewish societies (Israel), and even some Buddhist majority societies (Sri Lanka). There may also be cultural taboos against it.

     In the U.S., generally speaking, it is accepted more by Democrats than Republicans. Republicans tend to be more traditional, supporting religious reasons for opposing it. A case in point is a post and comment thread from two Republican Reps, one anti-gay and the other gay, shown below.

     Unfortunately, many gay people feel oppressed by society, even in societies that generally accept them. In the U.S., acceptance can vary by state. Gay people often move to states where acceptance is higher, to escape perceived oppression. Lots of people hate ideas like Pride Month because they say it promotes gay behavior and grooms people to want to experiment with it. Of course, acceptance does not in itself encourage people to try it, but more people will experiment in societies that accept it. That is a natural side effect of acceptance that those who oppose will just have to accept it and deal with it. Gay people have existed throughout history, sometimes thriving, but often being oppressed as well. Warriors in ancient societies often practiced homosexuality and transsexuality, and at times, such behavior was considered normal.

     Some may argue that events like Pride Month are overly celebrated and that we shouldn't have companies celebrating it. The argument there is often that we can accept it without promoting it. That is a legitimate argument. It is also often associated with so-called "woke" ideologies. 

     My own view is to accept it. It’s not a big deal. People who oppose it tend to make it a big deal, but it’s really not. It’s just loving, liking, or being aroused by whoever you want. As they say, love is love, but also interest is interest. Religious people may see it as the work of Satan, but others see that as a foolish notion that should not hold sway in society. Some people are afraid of being turned gay by a permissive society, but we shouldn’t care about their hangups. Gay is here to stay. It ain’t going away, so get used to it. As the humanprogress.org graph shows, acceptance of it is a trend that is not likely to reverse itself.  

Natural Gas Demand Growth in the U.S. Northeast: RBN Energy, Now a Part of NOVI Labs, Forecasts 1BCF/Day of New Demand by 2029

     RBN Energy, which was recently acquired by NOVI Labs, recently analyzed and forecasted natural gas demand growth in the U.S. Northeast. Over the past decade and a half, as Appalachian shale gas production skyrocketed, much of that natural gas in the Northeast has been produced for transport to other U.S. regions since it could easily meet regional demand. More natural gas power plants have been built in the region, replacing coal plants, improving air quality, and reducing carbon emissions. However, with growing demand, particularly in the power sector, that is changing, as local and regional demand begins to grow faster. RBN classifies fourteen states as far south as Virginia and as far west as Ohio, as northeastern states.

     Below is a graph showing the four sectors where natural gas is used: residential, commercial, industrial, and power. Three of the four have remained steady for years or have had small increases, but the power sector has doubled its natural gas consumption over the past decade. One big reason for the rise is gas replacing coal. However, as RBN author John Abeln notes, as coal retirements have slowed down, natural gas demand has continued to rise. New demand from AI data centers is one reason.  

     The graph below shows the seasonal profiles for daily energy output for natural gas, solar, and wind over the past five and a half years. Three obvious conclusions are that solar output is highest in summer, wind output is highest in winter, and natural gas output is highest in summer but can also be high in winter. Solar generation peaks in June and July at around 136% of the annual average, while December is the low point, with just 54% of the annual average. Wind peaks in November and December and is lowest in June and July, almost the reverse of solar. That makes wind and solar seasonally complementary in general. Natural gas typically fills the seasonal shortfalls of solar and wind output. Natural gas output peaks in July and August and is at its lowest in April.

     RBN used EIA Form 860M to do initial calculations for forecasting natural gas demand growth over the next five years. However, they note that using that alone is quite incomplete, and they have developed their own formula for predicting demand growth by analyzing the probability of a project coming into service based on its current stage of development.

“The EIA data and our analysis indicate that Northeast capacity growth will be strongest in the solar sector, with smaller growth in wind capacity and a decline in coal capacity. Gas-fired generation capacity is expected to be the same five years from now after adjusting for project likelihood. However, we anticipate an increase in the utilization of that capacity as changes in the market require more baseload power from gas plants. Therefore, we forecast a 230-MMcf/d increase in gas-for-power consumption over the next five years — based only on the EIA data, that is.”

“The 230-MMcf/d increase is dramatically smaller than the rate of increase seen over the past five years. But this analysis only looks at new power generation reported in Form 860M. We at RBN have identified six projects under development in the Northeast that are not on this EIA list and have the potential to have a much larger impact on regional gas demand.”

     Those six projects that they identified are shown on the map below.

     Below, they analyze those projects and plug them into their formula to derive 1BCF of possible new demand over the next five years. However, they also caution that some of those projects are likely to be slower to come online than predicted and that big changes in the bigger ones, such as a cancellation, could change the numbers significantly.

“If we assume 90% utilization of these facilities and use our standard conversion rate (where 1 TWh is equal to 7.15 MMcf/d) then these projects would increase Northeast gas demand by 1 Bcf/d by 2029, which dwarfs the 230-MMcf/d increase based on our analysis of EIA 860M. As shown in Figure 4 below, most of the increase from our suggested six-plant buildout is in Pennsylvania (blue layer) but with a substantial portion in West Virginia (red layer) and smaller amounts in two other states. This 1 Bcf/d assumes that all of the projects come online on schedule, which is unlikely. Also note that more than 60% of new capacity comes from just two projects, which makes prospects for increased gas usage in the Northeast highly dependent on the decisions of a few companies.”

     As they note below, the forecasted increase, even at the high end, is just 13%, compared to the 20% growth in demand in the past five years. They also note that Marcellus and Utica producers could easily meet that demand increase with more rigs, but for a real drilling boom, they would still need more pipeline takeaway capacity out of the region. They suggest that several BCF per day of new takeaway capacity would be needed. They also note that there are new pipeline projects planned to come out of the region, and they plan to write about them in future posts.

“The roughly 1.2 Bcf/d in incremental in-region power demand that constitutes the high end of our expectations over the next five years — 230 MMcf/d from our assessment of the EIA list and 1 Bcf/d from the six other projects — represents a 13% increase from the 9.2 Bcf/d of the power-related gas demand in 2025 (see orange layer in Figure 1). That’s noteworthy, but even a full jump of 1.2 Bcf/d by 2030 would be smaller than the 20% increase we saw over the past five years.”

 

 

 

References:

 

Who Says You Can’t Go Home – How Much Gas Demand Growth Will Come from Within the Northeast? John Abeln. RBN Energy. May 29, 2026. Who Says You Can’t Go Home – How Much Gas Demand Growth Will Come from Within the Northeast? | RBN Energy

Singlet Fission Via a Molybdenum-Based Near-Infrared Light-Emitting Spin-Flip Emitter Shows Promise for Breaking the Shockley–Queisser Limit of Solar Cell Efficiency

  

     Japanese researchers have devised a means to capture extra energy from sunlight using a metal-based system that reduces heat losses during conversion. The method involves a chemical structure known as a spin-flip emitter made of molybdenum, which captures multiplied energy created during a process called singlet fission. This is an important discovery for potentially improving solar cell efficiency by up to 130%.

     When solar cells convert sunlight into electricity, they only utilize some of the available energy. There is a limit to how much of the available energy can be utilized due to “a mismatch between photon energies and how semiconductors respond,” as noted below. This creates a solar cell efficiency limit known as the Shockley–Queisser limit. The new research is one of two main methods being explored to break that limit.

“One long-known ceiling comes from the mismatch between photon energies and how semiconductors respond, which means some photons fail to trigger electrons while others lose excess energy as heat.”

“This efficiency cap, known as the Shockley–Queisser limit, has pushed researchers to explore methods that reuse lost energy instead of letting it dissipate.”

The Shockley–Queisser Limit and the Implications of Breaking It

     Wikipedia explains the Shockley–Queisser limit as follows:

“The Shockley–Queisser limit is the maximum theoretical efficiency of a solar cell using a single p–n junction to collect power from the cell where the only loss mechanism is radiative recombination in the solar cell. It was first calculated by William Shockley and Hans-Joachim Queisser at Shockley Semiconductor in 1961, giving a maximum efficiency of 30% at 1.1 eV. The limit is one of the most fundamental to solar energy production with photovoltaic cells, and is one of the field's most important contributions.”

     Note that it is about 30%. That means if efficiency improves by 130%, then the efficiency of the solar cell would increase from 30% to 69%. Such an efficiency increase would be truly groundbreaking, and a new solar revolution would ensue. However, this is still in the research phase, and more breakthroughs will be required to initiate commercialization.

Summary by Wayne Williams for TechRadar Pro

     Wayne Williams of TechRadar Pro does a good job of explaining this research breakthrough. I found the abstract of the paper, which was published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, but much of the explanation in it went over my head, so his explanation is a useful summary.

“Singlet fission, described by the researchers as a “dream technology” for light conversion, plays a central role in the experiment because it allows one high-energy excitation to split into two lower-energy ones, theoretically doubling the number of usable energy carriers.”

“Capturing those duplicated excitons has been the harder problem, since competing energy transfer processes can redirect energy before it becomes useful.”

“The team addressed that bottleneck by pairing singlet fission materials with a molybdenum-based near-infrared spin-flip emitter tuned to absorb specific triplet energy states.”

“The energy can be easily ‘stolen’ by a mechanism called Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) before multiplication occurs,” said Sasaki. “We therefore needed an energy acceptor that selectively captures the multiplied triplet excitons after fission.”

“Experiments using tetracene-based materials in solution produced quantum yields ranging from just over 110% to about 130%, meaning more energy carriers were generated than incoming photons absorbed under laboratory conditions.”

“Results remain limited to solution testing rather than full solar devices, meaning practical application still depends on translating the chemistry into solid materials compatible with working panels.”

“Future work will focus on combining these materials into solid-state systems where energy transfer efficiency can be tested under conditions closer to real solar cell operation.”

 

 

References:

 

Japanese researchers develop spin-flip material to increase solar panel efficiency by up to 130%. Wayne Williams. TechRadar Pro. May 3, 2026. Japanese researchers develop spin-flip material to increase solar panel efficiency by up to 130%

Exploring Spin-State Selective Harvesting Pathways from Singlet Fission Dimers to a Near-Infrared-Emissive Spin-Flip Emitter. Percy Gonzalo Sifuentes, Samanamud Adrian, Sauer Aki, Masaoka Yuta, Sawada Yuya, WatanabeIlias Papadopoulos, Katja Heinze, Yoichi Sasaki, and Nobuo Kimizuka. Journal of the American Chemical Society. Vol 148/Issue 13. March 25, 2026. Exploring Spin-State Selective Harvesting Pathways from Singlet Fission Dimers to a Near-Infrared-Emissive Spin-Flip Emitter | Journal of the American Chemical Society

Shockley–Queisser limit. Wikipedia. Shockley–Queisser limit - Wikipedia

Solar-cell efficiency. Wikipedia. Solar-cell efficiency - Wikipedia