One of the
authors of a paper published last March in Environmental Research Letters
that informs this post was the late Paul Ehrlich. Ehrlich published his famous
book, The Population Bomb, in 1968, 58 years before this study.
Ehrlich’s predictions were also famously or infamously proven to be very far
off the mark, as humanity has thrived since then due in no small part to the
Green Revolution and other technological advancements. Population has more than
doubled since those failed predictions were made. Ehrlich also lost badly in a
famous bet against economist Julian Simon about resource depletion. Apparently,
however, Ehrlich was still sounding the alarms about population growth and resource
depletion up to his death.

There are several different
population growth models considered to be plausible, and they vary considerably
in peak population magnitude and time period. The study mentioned above seems
to give a very high-end estimate, about 12 billion people by 2070.
Several other models predict much lower population by then, usually 9 or
10 billion, and some think population could peak nearer to 2050. The paper does
give the variation in estimates, including the UN’s medium prediction of
population peaking in the 2070s at about 10.2 billion people. Other plausible
predictions given include one where population peaks in the 2060s at about 9.5
billion people, then begins to drop.
“Earth cannot keep up with the way in which we are using
resources,” Flinders University’s Corey Bradshaw, lead author of the study,
said in a press statement. “It cannot support even today’s demand without major
changes, with our findings showing that we are pushing the planet harder than
it can possibly cope.”
Darren Orf of Popular Mechanics
takes this to mean:
“So, yeah. We’re screwed.”
He cites a paper published in Sustainable
Development which suggests that human population should be gently lessened
to 4 billion by 2200 in order to ensure resource availability. That is
possible, but we do not know what technological advancements will occur before
then that could render such a prediction less meaningful. The authors noted:
“Embracing a smaller population may seem discouraging or
strange, as we have lived in an era of rapid global population increase,” the
authors write. “But the global population quadrupled over the past century, and
that is a much more disruptive change than if the population were to shrink by
half over the next 170 years.”
The authors of the Environment
Research Letters paper noted:
“Today’s economies predicated on uninterrupted growth
apparently do not recognize the regenerative constraints of sustained
population expansion, because fossil fuels artificially make up the
differences,” the authors wrote. “Nor do economies anticipate the looming
reductions in regenerative capacity as climate disruptions intensify.”
It should be pointed out that
those constraints and reductions they mention are predictions as well and may
not materialize at all.
Orf dooms on about
“limitarianism,” or putting limits on the amount of resources that can be used.
He suggests fertilizer prices will rise, and food systems will be stressed. I
would simply point out that food systems have not been stressed very much since
the time when Ehrlich made his prediction, despite the population more than
doubling.
Below, the Environmental Research
Letters paper’s abstract notes:
“A Ricker logistic model fitted to the negative phase
predicts that the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people
between 2067 and 2076. The same model fitted to the facilitation phase predicts
a maximum population of 2.5 billion people that Earth might be able to maintain.”
Thus, they choose a model that
predicts much higher population growth than other predictions, and apparently
the model also predicts a maximum of 2.5 billion to stay within “carrying
capacity.” They see anything consuming resources needed for 2.5 billion people
as overconsumption. The notion of carrying capacity is itself a kind of
prediction since it changes according to technology and economics. As Julian
Simon proved, resource availability changes with economic conditions and
technological advancement. Thus, the finiteness of resources changes as well.
While renewable energy has yet to begin “replacing” fossil fuels, it is getting
close to limiting the growth of fossil fuels. It will, at some point, actually
begin to replace fossil fuels in terms of replacing generation, but due to its
limitations, it is also limited in its ability to fully replace fossil fuels.
They also acknowledge in the
abstract:
“The ecological concept of human carrying capacity is
necessarily complicated because human beings are the ‘ultimate ecosystem
engineers’ who moderate the environment for their benefit. For at least the
last few hundred years, human ingenuity, access to massive stocks of fossil
fuels, and technological development have driven facilitation whereby
increasing human abundance has promoted higher population growth rates.”
Here, I notice that they used the
same phrase Simon used, “human ingenuity,” to describe ecosystem mitigation.
They also acknowledge the well-known decoupling of economic growth from
population growth, where growth slowed as population increased. They pinpoint
this as beginning in 1962. They also declare that a “biocapacity deficit” began
in 1970, eight years later. I am not sure where or how they got that figure.
The lead author also noted:
"Humanity's current path will push societies into
deeper crises unless we make major changes," he says.
"The planet's life support systems are already
under strain and without rapid shifts in how we use energy, land, and food,
billions of people will face increasing instability. Our study shows these
limits are not theoretical but unfolding right now."
Count me as very skeptical. The mere
association of Ehrlich with the paper should ring catastrophist alarms. The use
of the highest population estimates, the vagueness of defining human carrying
capacity, and the lack of attention to that “human ingenuity” that makes
resources more available, namely technological advancement, are what make me
skeptical. I also wonder how much of this, and catastrophic predictions like
it, intentional or not, ends up serving more as propaganda for certain biased
views rather than as plausible science.
References:
Scientists
say Earth needs to shrink by billions of people by 2200. But I think we’re
already screwed. Darren Orf. Popular Mechanics. September 29, 2026. Scientists
say Earth needs to shrink by billions of people by 2200. But I think we’re
already screwed.
Global
human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity. Corey J A
Bradshaw, Melinda A Judge, Daniel T Blumstein, Paul R Ehrlich, Aisha N Z
Dasgupta, Mathis Wackernagel, Lewis J Z Weeda and Peter N Le Souëf. Published
27 March 2026. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 21, Number 6. Global human
population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity - IOPscience
Achieve
Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billion by 2200. Mark Keegan,
Anastasia Pseiridis, Philip Cafaro, Jane O'Sullivan, William Rees, Estelle
Monique Sidze, Lawrence Whitmore, Enrique J. Derlindati, Mohammad Mainul Islam,
Khaoula Houssini, and S. Irudaya Rajan. Sustainable Development. July 26, 2026.
Achieve
Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billion by 2200 - Keegan - Sustainable
Development - Wiley Online Library
Humanity
has already exceeded Earth’s limits, study warns: Today’s population of 8.3
billion is far above what could be sustained in the long term without
exhausting ecosystems, worsening climate change, and threatening food and water
security. Finders University. Science Daily. May 27, 2026. Humanity
has already exceeded Earth’s limits, study warns | ScienceDaily