Aid Cuts, Drought, and Government and Tribal Diversion Contribute to Surging Malnutrition in Somalia

     The Washington Post reports that, according to Doctors Without Borders, hospital admissions for severe malnutrition in Somalian displacement camps have surged 83% this year. They found that nearly half the children in the camps in Baidoa in southwestern Somalia were malnourished, and over 100 died. Aid to the country has dropped by 80% and is a direct cause of malnutrition. USAID used to be the largest contributor by far of food aid to Somalia. Somalia has one of the world’s highest numbers of displaced people, with millions living in camps and many 100% dependent on food aid for survival.

“In spite of all our medical treatment, in spite our efforts to increase our team, to increase care, unfortunately, we have also seen the increasing number of deaths,” Sangma told The Washington Post. “We suspect that there are more deaths in the community which we cannot confirm.”

     WAPO notes:

“The Trump administration has cut virtually all aid to Somalia, ranked the fourth-poorest country by the World Population Review. In 2023, Somalia received $1.18 billion in U.S. aid.”

“The State Department suspended all assistance to the Somalian government in January after accusing it of seizing more than 83 tons of food aid and destroying a U.S.-funded World Food Program warehouse.”

“The Trump Administration has a zero-tolerance policy for waste, theft, and diversion of life-saving assistance,” the department said at the time. “Any resumption of assistance will be dependent upon the Somali Federal Government, taking accountability for its unacceptable actions and taking appropriate remedial steps.”

     While there is legitimate concern about the Somali government, loss of aid is still increasing malnutrition and death for children, which should be the bigger concern.

     Unfortunately, aid from the EU and the UN is also down in Somalia.

“Six million people were facing “high levels of acute food insecurity,” including 1.9 million in emergency conditions, the OCHA reported, and nearly 1.88 million children were expected to need treatment for acute malnutrition.”

“What we are seeing is shocking and far beyond the threshold of an extremely critical emergency,” MSF project coordinator Allara Ali said. “What is equally shocking is the lack of urgency from donors, who continue to downscale and withdraw support from Somalia.”

     A severe drought that has caused crop failures and livestock deaths is also a major factor in the malnutrition spike. Water supplies have also been depleted. As can be readily seen in the pic below from 2023, livestock are starving as well.

“The consequences of the cuts are becoming more visible now and will get worse in the coming years,” Sangma said. “But the gaps, we already see.”

     Reuters reports that “a July survey by MSF of 888 households in 14 displacement sites in Baidoa, southwest Somalia, found that one in four children was severely malnourished. One third of families said they were surviving on one meal a day, while only 2% could afford three meals.”

“According to the United Nations, more than half a million people were displaced in Somalia in the first three months of 2026, with drought driving most of the movement. Women and children accounted for about 85% of those displaced.”

     One concern is that another famine will be declared like the one in 2022.

     Theft of food aid has been a problem in Somalia for years. In 2023, it was reported that landowners, local authorities, members of the security forces, and humanitarian workers were all involved in stealing aid intended for vulnerable people. Were they hungry too? Did they sell the food? The former is almost justifiable, but the latter is not. The UN reported in 2023 that “post-delivery aid diversion in Somalia is widespread and systemic."

     Along with government interference, there is tribalism and Islamic extremism, neither of which helps those who need aid, but is likely involved in diverting it. In one respect, we should be glad that someone is getting the food. Unfortunately, this kind of food aid diversion has been a problem for decades in Somalia and Ethiopia, where there is a long history of need for food aid.

     Reuters reported in 2023 that the move toward cash-based systems thwarted food assistance diversion when implemented in 2011, but since then, workarounds have been found.

“The U.N. report was the latest evidence that cash-based systems can be exploited too. It identified a variety of perpetrators, led by so-called "gatekeepers," powerful individuals from dominant local clans.”

“These gatekeepers leverage their influence over access to camp sites and food beneficiary lists to coerce payments from IDPs, the report said.”

“Members of security forces also play a role by intimidating and sometimes arresting those who refuse to pay, while some humanitarian workers collude with gatekeepers to pocket stolen funds, the report said.”

     Thus, tribal and government collusion in food aid diversion is real and, in this region, has become a systemic problem that needs to be addressed. It should be seen as the criminal behavior that it is, and those responsible should be accountable. However, the solution should not involve cutting life-saving aid to those in need who are not criminals, especially children. 

 

References:

 

Severe malnutrition in Somalia is surging after US cuts, aid groups say. Rael Ombuor. Washinton Post. August 11, 2026. Severe malnutrition in Somalia is surging after US cuts, aid groups say

Somalia malnutrition response hit by more than 80% funding drop as child hunger surges, MSF says. Feisal Omar. Reuters. August 11, 2026. Somalia malnutrition response hit by more than 80% funding drop as child hunger surges, MSF says

EU temporarily holds back food aid in Somalia after UN finds widespread theft. Gabriela Baczynska, Michelle Nichols, Aaron Ross and Emma Farge. Reuters. September 19, 2023. EXCLUSIVE: EU temporarily holds back food aid in Somalia after UN finds widespread theft | Reuters

Publication Bias Favoring Confirmation and Failure to Replicate Are Growing Science Problems That Affect Focus and Funding

      Has science become biased in favor of publishing papers that confirm previous results? Hannah Frey of Climate Compass writes about this issue. She first notes how scientific breakthroughs are announced. They tend to focus on the latest innovations that led to the breakthrough rather than the years of development that led to it. She writes:

“The generation of new data and scientific publications at an unprecedented rate has led to a culture of "publish or perish," making it harder to slow down and do the kind of deep, patient work that eventually leads to genuine discovery. The quiet decades before the breakthrough are rarely part of the story.”

     She notes that science has a pretty serious replication problem and 70% of scientific results failed to be replicated when attempted. She notes that this suggests that some discoveries may not be new discoveries at all if they are not able to be replicated. She writes:

“Science has a structural problem with negative results. When an experiment fails to confirm a hypothesis, it tends to vanish. Journals prefer findings that are positive and statistically striking.”

“Flawed study designs and a "publication bias" that favors confirmatory results are longtime sources of concern within the research community. This creates a skewed archive, where the public record of science looks far more consistent than the actual process ever was. Various factors have been suggested as contributing to this replication crisis, including selective reporting, insufficiently detailed methodology descriptions, p-hacking, poor theoretical design, small sample sizes, coding mistakes, and the unavailability of code and data.”

“Each of these is a real and correctable problem, but they rarely come up in the press releases announcing the next big thing.”

     Research labs depend on funding that is difficult to secure, and those who provide it tend to want to see useful results. She notes that in 2025, 7,800 grants were cancelled or suspended in the U.S. The Trump administration's cuts likely led to a significant amount of funding being cancelled or suspended. Up to 25,000 early career scientists either left their fields or left the country. Due in part to American R&D cuts, China is now investing as much in R&D as the U.S. She mentions the stresses on young scientists:

“The culture that demands relentless productivity, constant grant applications, and peer-reviewed output before ideas are fully formed creates conditions where burnout is common and quiet.”

     Next, she considers the slowness of science and getting from R to D:

“The gap between a proof of concept and a practical application is often a decade or more.”

     She notes that funding often determines what science gets done. Projects that are more likely to generate demonstration projects and show more promise for commercialization are more likely to get funded, and that is generally a good thing. She writes:

“Historian Philip Mirowski argues that the decline of scientific quality can be connected to its commodification, especially spurred by major corporations' profit-driven decision to outsource their research to universities and contract research organizations. When the research agenda is shaped by what is fundable rather than what is fundamental, certain categories of discovery become less likely. The public rarely sees that filter at work.”

     Some people think that the replication crisis is a precursor to an existential crisis for science.

“Researchers are advocating for both immediate changes in practice and larger structural changes in incentives for scientific behavior, focusing on making research more open and transparent through tools such as open materials, open data, preregistration, and multisite collaborative research studies. These are meaningful steps. They're also a signal that the system, as currently constructed, cannot be taken for granted.”

“The breakthroughs will keep coming - the question is whether the conditions that make them possible will hold.”

     

References:

 

The side of a major scientific breakthrough nobody discusses publicly. Hannah Frey. Climate Compass. July 15, 2026. The side of a major scientific breakthrough nobody discusses publicly

 

Shale Well Production Decline: The Theory of the Double Choke as Explained by William Jimenez in ‘The Double Choke Kills Shale Wells’

      I found this article to be an interesting way to understand how low-permeability shale wells behave geomechanically and how that affects production decline. Reservoirs typically lose pressure as wells produce from them, and wells also experience drops in pressure. Initial decline in shale wells is much higher than for wells with higher matrix porosity and permeability and/or natural fracture porosity and permeability.

     William Jimenez, CEO of GQ USA International out of Houston, TX, a company that works on EOR and flow assurance for wells, writes about what he calls the ‘Theory of the Double Choke.’  The first choke, or choke point, occurs after the well produces its initial or “flush” production. He states that shale wells typically produce 80% of their production in the first two years, while conventional wells typically produce 10% of their production in the first two years. That seems high to me for the shale wells and low for the conventional wells. In any case, shale wells certainly decline much faster. He notes that the first choke occurs due to the induced fractures closing. Thus, it is a geomechanical event. He writes:

“This accelerated decline is no accident. It is a physical consequence of the environment where the well operates. The hydraulic fracture that creates the conduit for oil to flow is subjected to closure stresses that, over time, crush it.”

     He identifies two phenomena that lead to fracture closure: 1) proppant embedment and 2) rock creep. He notes that as pore pressure decreases due to production, stress on the proppant increases. This is called closure stress. Proppant embedment occurs when proppant grains get embedded on the fracture wall as the closure pressure increases. This reduces the width of the fracture, leaving less room for oil to flow. He points to a study published in Fuel that determined that “when closure pressure increases to 40 MPa, fracture conductivity in shale is reduced by more than 60% compared to 10 Mpa {in tight sandstones?}” In any case, loss of fracture conductivity accelerates production decline in shale wells. Rock creep refers to slow rock deformation under continuous stress, which further leads to loss of fracture conductivity. He points to recent research that suggests that the speed of rock creep can predict the speed of fracture conductivity loss. He also notes that the now smaller fracture widths make the fractures more vulnerable to the second mechanism, or the second of the two chokes.

     The second choke happens when the now narrow fracture pathways get clogged with debris and deposits, and components of the oil such as paraffin or asphaltenes.

“Shale crudes typically feature high paraffin and asphaltene contents. The restricted area causes a localized pressure drop that disrupts the crude's thermodynamic equilibrium, "triggering" paraffin crystallization and asphaltene flocculation right at the fracture neck. In formations like Woodford and Montney, the recovery of solid particles composed of asphaltenes, crushed proppant, formation fines, and iron oxide inside fractures has been documented.”

“Fracture conductivity degrades due to a combination of factors: proppant mechanical failure, formation fines release, proppant embedment, fracture fluid damage, stress cycling, and ultimately, asphaltene deposition.”

     Below, he summarizes the theory and reiterates why the order of the two matters.

     Jiminez sees this model as key to effective EOR strategies that should attempt to treat and optimize the induced fractures rather than treating the rock matrix, which is less important for shale where that matrix is impermeable. Thus, he says, the goal of re-stimulating these wells should focus on re-opening the fracture and cleaning the fracture necks of debris and deposits, which respectively address the two chokes. The deposits often include organic deposits from heavier components of the oil.

“It is about targeting the second choke—the organic deposits—via a proton reaction mechanism that releases carbocations to cleave long C-C and C-H chains. This permanently fragments the molecule and restores fracture conductivity without the need to re-fracture the well.”

     He does not give any case studies where this re-stimulation method has worked, but I assume there has been some success. What would be important to know are average production improvements after stimulation and how long it takes to get re-plugged or for production to drop back down. Such data could help validate and refine the stimulation method. These should be compared to refrac results in terms of cost and production improvements.

References:

 

The Double Choke Kills Shale Wells. William Jimenez C. LinkedIn (Article). August 7, 2026. (24) The Double Choke Kills Shale Wells | LinkedIn

Plug-In Home Solar Systems: They Can Be Economical With or Without Subsidies, with Supportive Utility and State Policies, at Higher Electricity Rates, in High Solar Irradiance Regions, and with Good Exposure

       Plug-in solar, also known as balcony solar, in the form of kits with panels and a microinverter, along with some mounting hardware and software for monitoring, is becoming more popular. Since it can simply be plugged in to work after the panels are set up, it can be installed at home quickly. Most states are not requiring permits for installations.  

     I had a rooftop PV solar system installed in 2014. It took nearly six months from signing the contracts, including a power purchase agreement from the utility to enable net metering, to getting the system up and running. While rooftop solar times have sped up since then, the new plug-in solar systems can be making power in a few hours. Plug-In solar systems are smaller, and state rules for net metering typically cap them at 1200kW, which is a small amount of power but enough to make a dent in monthly electric bills. For one system I saw, if mounted comparably to that system from 2014 should make about one quarter of the power at less than one tenth the cost. I first estimated the payout time for me for a plug-in system would be around 6-7 years, but it may be much faster. That is a little more than half the payout time of the 2014 system. For places with better solar irradiance, higher electricity prices, and subsidies and other supportive policies, the payout would be faster and the economics better. Plug-in solar can be grid-tied. There are some unknowns, such as costs to the utility for upgrades and net metering. The economics are better with a grid-tied system unless one effectively uses all the solar generated every day without losing it. Grid-tied systems are likely to become the standard.

    Some U.S. states have policies and rules in place regarding plug-in solar, and others are moving toward getting them. One issue is the possibility of power flowing to the grid during an outage, which could harm lineworkers when fixing the outage. The Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) noted that plug-in solar systems often include protections designed to keep power from flowing back onto the grid during outages. Thus, preventing flow to the grid during an outage is built-in and should never be an issue with most systems. Once certification is complete, all systems should shut off during an outage. SACE also pointed out that it has been decades since a line worker was harmed by a solar inverter. However, there have been instances where generators have flowed back onto the grid, killing lineworkers. Certified plug-in solar systems automatically shut off when the grid goes down, which means they can’t be used off-grid unless a battery system is added. There are systems that have both. EcoFlow makes a popular one with a battery that can be used on or off-grid. The pic below shows an EcoFlow system in off-grid mode.

     The state laws are typically limiting the size of these systems to 1200W (1.2kW), which requires as few as one or two large solar panels. One to three panels are common in these systems.

     Utah was the first state to legalize plug-in solar, and ten states have followed suit. Other states are reviewing and considering laws. Plug-In solar has taken off in Europe, especially in Germany, where millions of systems are deployed. Certifications of different systems by UL Solutions are ongoing.

     Installation should be fairly simple, but there may be rules and codes to be followed. The Cool Down writes:

“In some cases, customers must hire an electrician to install a separate circuit. On standard household circuits, CraftStrom also sells a power meter that can reduce solar output in response to other electricity use, helping the setup stay within code.”

     Balcony solar is expected to go legal in the UK very soon, with three to five years payouts being touted. I was a little skeptical since mine looked like up to a seven-year payout, but the big factor there could be the higher electricity costs in the UK. I did look that up, and UK power prices are about 25% higher, which would drop my payout calculation from seven years to about 5.25 years, so that makes it pretty close to what they are saying. It may even be better since the newer panels are likely more efficient than my 2024 panels.  That could bring it down to below 5 years. However, it is hard to know how much power is lost during the peak solar generation times. I suppose it would lead me to do more laundry and stuff like that during sunny days. I should have been off a little since the table below shows a payout of 5.6 years for my region and power prices. That is great news, actually. The inverters have a 12-year warranty, so that means profitability is likely.

     Samantha Greer, in a March 2026 article for Exspenditure, notes that plug-on solar systems range in price from $400 to $2000. She notes:

“Plug-in solar operates as a load-side injection system. The microinverter synchronizes with the grid waveform and injects current at the branch circuit outlet. Under normal load conditions it is architecturally zero-export — it only generates up to the existing load draw on the connected circuit. There is no net metering interaction, no bidirectional meter required, and no utility interconnection agreement needed.”

“Anti-islanding: Every compliant microinverter is required to meet IEEE 1547-2018 anti-islanding requirements. If the grid goes down, the inverter detects the loss of grid reference and shuts off within milliseconds — preventing any possibility of energizing de-powered lines. This is the same protection required in hardwired rooftop solar systems.”

     Below, Greer gives a table with estimated payouts in different regions with different power prices.

     She also notes that customers in places like California and New York that have time-of-use (TOU) power pricing can pay out much faster if they generate in the peak afternoon hours, avoiding the high power prices during those times.

     Although plug-in solar is not eligible for federal subsidies, it may be eligible for local, state, and utility subsidies. One may generate state renewable energy credits (SRECs) in some states that can be sold. Net metering ensures that no generation is wasted. It is either used or sold back to the utility.

     Company APsystems recently launched a new low-cost 1080W plug-in solar system. It comes with two bifacial panels, a microinverter, cables and hardware, and communications capabilities via Bluetooth or Wi-Fi. This means you can track power generation and forecast future savings and seasonal and daily variances. According to an article about the new offering in PV Magazine:

“APsystems has integrated localized and cloud-based communications directly into the hardware architecture. End-users can establish a direct local connection via Bluetooth using a smartphone to view real-time production metrics. For off-site monitoring, the microinverter connects directly via built-in Wi-Fi to a local internet router, transmitting data to cloud servers. System behavior and generation tracking are managed through the proprietary AP EasyPower app, which supports monitoring for up to four units simultaneously.”

     I predict that plug-in solar is about to get wildly successful since it offers an affordable entry point into home solar that can be deployed quickly. It also offers portability since the panels and the whole system can be moved. Plug-and-play solar can be used by renters and apartment dwellers. The battery-included systems are popular with campers and those with RVs. However, the battery-included systems do up the cost considerably for a comparably sized system. It would be nice to have the option to add a battery later, perhaps when prices drop and possibly with different battery types. EcoFlow uses lithium-iron-phosphate. With a little more economic and efficiency improvement in a few years when I plan to buy one, these plug-in solar systems should be no-brainers. They also empower people to take back a little bit of control over their power costs and carbon footprints well into the future. I think that will add to their popularity.

    

 

References:

 

In North Carolina, generators killed lineworkers; plug-in solar hasn't, but lawmakers still hesitate. Curtis Deacon. The Cool Down. August 3, 2026. In North Carolina, generators killed lineworkers; plug-in solar hasn't, but lawmakers still hesitate

Utah legalized plug-in solar first, and 10 more states have rushed to follow. Wyatt Fischer. The Cool Down. July 27, 2026. Utah legalized plug-in solar first, and 10 more states have rushed to follow

In the UK, plug-in balcony solar goes legal later this month, with payback in 3 to 5 years. Vivian Tran. The Cool Down. August 3, 2026. In the UK, plug-in balcony solar goes legal later this month, with payback in 3 to 5 years

What Is Plug-In Solar? Will It Work For Your home? Plug-in solar panels are popping up left and right. But, are they worth the price? Here’s a full breakdown of what to expect. Samantha Greer. Exspenditure. March 18, 2026. Plug-In Solar 2026 Guide: Everything You Need To Know

Company launches DIY balcony solar microinverter that plugs into a wall socket. Vivian Tran. The Cool Down. July 25, 2026. Company launches DIY balcony solar microinverter that plugs into a wall socket

Plug-and-Play Solar Panels: Simple Solar Solutions for Homes and Off-Grid Use. EcoFlow. July 28, 2026. Plug-and-Play Solar Panels: Simple Solar Solutions for Homes and Off-Grid Use

APsystems introduces plug-in microinverter for U.S. balcony solar: The new EZ1-LV dual microinverter delivers 900 VA of continuous AC output, features integrated safety relays, and offers direct-to-socket plug-and-play installation for non-rooftop residential solar projects. Ryan Kennedy. PV Magazine. July 18, 2026.  APsystems introduces plug-in microinverter for U.S. balcony solar - pv magazine Global

Oil Spill from Grounded Tanker Off Coast of Oman Creates 400km Oil Slick Near Nature Reserve

      A sanctioned oil tanker carrying sanctioned Russian oil has been leaking oil since early June just offshore Oman, creating an oil slick nearly 400km in size (about 150 square miles). It is also near an oceanic nature reserve. According to Reuters:

“The Caroline Bezengi is loaded with close to one million barrels of Russian oil bound for Asia and first reported difficulties on June 8 off Yemen, with two maritime ​security sources saying initial assessments indicated a blast had occurred onboard.”

“No party has taken responsibility for attacking the vessel.”

“Oman, in its first public disclosure on the environmental impact, said on Monday it was seeking to tackle the oil leak near the Hallaniyat Islands.”

“Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tarik issued a royal decree last year creating a nature reserve around the islands, an area that is home to wildlife including Arabian Sea humpback whales and Socotra cormorants.”

“The Caroline Bezengi loaded at Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in April and passed through the Suez Canal at the end of May, ship-tracking data shows.”

     The ship was built in 2001 and is part of Russia’s uninsurable shadow fleet of sanctions evasion tankers. It was flying a Cameroon flag but was recently delisted by the country. These shadow vessels often change flags to help in evading sanctions. This particular tanker is sanctioned by the EU, Ukraine, the UK, Canada, and Switzerland.

     As can be seen in the pictures, the extent of the oil slick is easy to see.

   

 

 

References:

 

Oman says grounded tanker oil spill covers 400 square km. Pléiades. Reuters. August 10, 2026. Oman says grounded tanker oil spill covers 400 square km

Did Poop Help Fuel the ‘Cambrian Explosion?’ New Research Suggests That It Did

      A new review study published in the journal Trends in Ecology & Evolution by scientists in Australia and Germany found that the ‘Cambrian explosion,’ a period around 540 million years ago when the ancestors of most animal groups arose, may have been influenced and supported by an abundance of feces, left by those that came before.

"Next to rising oxygen levels and other contributing factors, the importance of feces in ancient ecosystems is often overlooked," says Russell Bicknell, an evolutionary biologist at Flinders University in Australia.

"We have considered these ancient diets, increasingly sophisticated digestive systems and trophic interactions as part of a much bigger picture to help explain how more organic matter and nutrients poured into the ancient oceans to accelerate ecosystem development at the end of the Ediacaran and early Cambrian periods."

     Thus, one could say that poop basically fertilized Cambrian life, supporting its diverse development.

     Life first appeared on Earth in limited form billions of years ago, not long after it formed. However, it remained quite limited. The Cambrian explosion is when oceanic life really grew and diversified.

     

     According to Science Alert:

“This spike in diversity occurred over a period of about 25 million years. That sounds like a long time, but it's just one frenzied afternoon in the studio relative to the almost 4 billion years it took for complex life to appear in the first place.”

“It's generally thought that the Cambrian explosion was fueled by an increase in oxygen in the atmosphere and water, a new protective layer of ozone, or an influx of nutrients washed into the oceans from erosion as the Snowball Earth melted.”

“The new study suggests an overlooked factor: A fecal revolution.”

     Of course, fecal matter is organic matter, and that matter still plays an important role in cycling nutrients, including carbon, iron, nitrogen, and phosphorus, through the oceans’ different regions, from surface to seafloor.

“During the Cambrian, the amount of particulate organic matter reaching deeper water must have constantly increased as biomass grew significantly and more animals with guts arose," the researchers write.

“To investigate whether the hypothesis was just a load of crap, the researchers examined these ancient excretions, known as coprolites, from across the Cambrian.”

     The earliest fossilized feces date to the early Cambrian, around 540 million years ago. The earliest forms were small since the organisms that left them were small, but as organism size increased, so did poop size.

"With this shift, we see increasingly complex digestive systems, particularly in early arthropods which evolve specialized foreguts and digestive glands capable of processing a wider variety of food," says Bicknell.

"It becomes clear in the fossil record that the evolution of feeding strategies aligns with the production and distribution of organic carbon and nutrients to start creating conditions we see in modern oceans and later on land, where fertilizer today is used to produce our food."

"Complex marine systems can only develop when a combination of temperature, nutrition, and biological drivers are present," the researchers conclude.

"The rapid acceleration of organism size during the Cambrian Radiation increased coprolite size, which yielded a positive feedback loop, further accelerating the establishment of these ecosystems."

     Animals first appeared in the Precambrian, about 600 million years ago, about 60 million years before the advent of the Cambrian period. The Cambrian explosion, or radiation, was basically a rapid diversification of oceanic life that occurred when guts first appeared. More poop led to more species, and many of them utilized the nutrients in the poop to create a cycle that led to both proliferation and diversification of animal species.

 

 

References:

 

An Ancient Poop Explosion Could Have Helped Complex Life Evolve. Michael Irving. Science Alert. August 5, 2026. An Ancient Poop Explosion Could Have Helped Complex Life Evolve : ScienceAlert

The Cambrian fecal revolution: Fueling the Cambrian Radiation. Julien Kimmig and Russell D.C. Bicknell. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. August 4, 2026. The Cambrian fecal revolution: Fueling the Cambrian Radiation: Trends in Ecology & Evolution

Global Child Labor Continues to Fall While Africa’s Youth Population Continues to Grow

     UNICEF estimates that 138 million children are forced to do labor, and 59 million of those are forced to do what is considered dangerous labor. Global child labor rates have been falling for a long time and continue to fall. Efforts to protect children from danger and mistreatment need to be continued and robust.

     HumanProgress.org, in a 2023 article, asserts that the reduction of child labor is a measure of human progress.

“According to the International Labour Organization, child laborers as a proportion of all children ages 5 to 17 dropped globally from 16 percent in 2000 to 9.6 percent in 2016. That year, 19.6 percent of children worked in Africa, 7.4 percent in Asia and the Pacific, 5.3 percent in the Americas, 4.1 percent in Europe and Central Asia, and 2.9 percent in the Arab states.”

“The total number of child laborers fell from 246 million in 2000 to 152 million in 2016. Almost half of child laborers in 2016 were in Africa (72.1 million), 62.1 million were in Asia and the Pacific, 10.7 million were in the Americas, 5.5 million were in Europe and Central Asia, and 1.2 million were in the Arab States. Agriculture accounted for 71 percent of child laborers, services for 17 percent, and industry for 12 percent. In spite of continued population growth, the International Labour Organization expects that by 2025 the total number of child laborers will decline to between 121 million and 88 million.”

     UNICEF monitors child labor and keeps statistics:

“Child labor is defined as work that is done by someone who is too young, or work that, based on the nature or circumstances, is harmful to a child's physical or mental health, social or educational development.”

“Agriculture remains the largest sector for child labor, accounting for 61 percent of all cases, mostly related to subsistence or family farming. The services sector, the second largest, includes domestic work and selling goods in markets. Industry, including mining and manufacturing, accounts for roughly 13 percent of child labor cases.”   

     Below are UNICEF’s current efforts toward addressing child labor and what works to reduce it.

 

     It seems to me that if adults, the children’s parents, could earn an adequate income, there would be no need for child labor. Therefore, work opportunities for adults should be pursued and supported. They do mention decent work for adults and youth in their recommendations. Another thing that should be encouraged is modernizing energy systems and power grids, expanding energy access, and economic and business development. Financing should be available for these projects regardless of carbon emissions concerns, although efforts should be made to reduce emissions if possible, especially local pollution emissions.

     The Marrakech Global Framework for Action against Child Labour: 6th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour, held this past February, summarized agendas and frameworks to address child labor. Many of the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are behind planned trajectories. Perhaps those trajectories were overly ambitious or aspirational, and geopolitical events like COVID and wars have affected economies. They note that workers’ rights are human rights. They note that social dialogue is important in addressing child labor and ensuring workers’ rights. They emphasize the importance of “accountability, participation, empowerment and transparency in policy and programmatic responses.” The presence of armed conflict hinders child labor reduction efforts, so securing peace is advantageous.

“Recognizing the emerging challenge posed by online exploitation of children, a phenomenon that requires the formulation and implementation of specialized regulatory and intervention strategies capable of ensuring its effective prevention and response.”

     They stress that eliminating child labor among those aged 5-11 is a priority. Most of the kids in that age group are engaged in agricultural labor. They also stress eliminating child labor among migrant groups, especially when it is assigned by human traffickers.

 

Africa Leads Population Growth, and by 2050, 25% of People on Earth Will Be African

     Africa’s population is projected to grow from 1.6 billion today to 2.5 billion over the next 25 years, while global population growth is projected to continue slowing, with continued declines in developed countries. 

     Africa’s youth population is already huge, with 60% of its people under the age of 25. It has the highest fertility rate, and its replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman (the birth rate required for countries to maintain their population size) is also the highest in the world. GZero World notes that improved health care and better access to medicine are reducing child deaths.

     Unfortunately, the continent also has high unemployment rates. South Africa, one of Africa’s most prosperous countries, has an astounding unemployment rate of 32%. The continent also has the world’s highest poverty rate. That makes it seem like eliminating child labor there will remain challenging since 63% of global child labor occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

     According to GZero World:

“Regional conflicts, including instability across the Sahel, heavy debt burdens, and external shocks – like disruptions to global energy and fertilizer markets caused by the Iran war – could hamper job creation and the overall economic outlook.”

‘Africa is becoming the world’s demographic powerhouse. Whether it also becomes an economic one will depend on its ability to match the scale of its youth boom. If they can, young Africans could become the continent’s greatest competitive advantage in a world that is rapidly growing older.”

 

 

 

References:

 

Children Labor Less: As the economy expanded, labor competition increased and wages grew, child labor became more uncommon. Marian L. Tupy and Ronald Bailey. Human Progress.org. March 1, 2023. Children Labor Less - Human Progress

Africa’s Fountain of Youth. Graphic Truth. Natalie Johnson. GZero World. July 6, 2026. Africa’s fountain of youth - GZERO Media

The Global Child Labor Crisis. UNICEF USA. The Global Child Labor Crisis | UNICEF USA

Marrakech Global Framework for Action against Child Labour. 6^th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour. February 2026. Marrakech Global Framework for Action against Child Labour.pdf

Global Child Labour Statistics: Child labor facts and figures: nearly 138 million children in child labor worldwide. Discover causes, effects, and where child labor is most common. The Child Protection Global Network (CPGN). Global Child Labour Chart & Key Statistics 2026 | Latest stats

Despite progress, child labour still affects nearly 138 million children worldwide. UNICEF. Child Labor Statistics - UNICEF DATA