Solar-Powered Desalination System Bypasses the Release of Hypersaline Waste Brine: Self-Cleaning, Super-Wicking Solar Panels are the Key: Minerals, Including Salt and Lithium, Can Be Recovered

      I posted quite recently about the environmental impacts of waste brine released from desalination plants. The most common forms of desalination, reverse osmosis and thermal distillation, are energy-intensive, require pre-treatment and post-treatment, and release waste brine. Researchers from the University of Rochester’s Institute of Optics have developed a new solar-thermal method of desalination that recovers the leftover salts in the brine rather than releasing them back into the sea in a concentrated form. The method, known as solar-thermal interfacial desalination, adds a “femtosecond laser surface processing technique” to create a “multi-functional superwicking black metal (SWBM) panel.”

     According to TechXplore:

“The technology uses solar panels made of black metal etched with femtosecond lasers to make the surface super light-absorbing and superwicking—or extremely attractive to water.”

“The panels have a laser-treated active region that pulls a thin layer of water across the surface, absorbs nearly all solar radiation, distills the water, and deposits the leftover salts and minerals into the panel's untreated sides or "passive" region so that the salt does not clog the active region and disrupt continuous desalination.”

     The method utilizes something known as the ‘coffee ring effect,’ where, after evaporation, a stain is left on the outside of spilled coffee due to the coffee particles wicking to the outside of the ring. The salts from the seawater can do the same thing, effectively wicking them away from the center of the solar panel where the desalination is taking place and moving them to the outside where they can be collected more easily. The staining phenomenon is similar to the scaling effects of salty water on pipes and containers, such as a teapot.

“To keep their solar panel surface from gumming up in a similar way, Guo's team precisely etched the black metal's grooves so the various salts and minerals in ocean water would simply slough off.”

“Testing their solar-thermal desalination technique using samples of water from the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans, Guo and his team were able to make the surface self-cleaning so that it extracted freshwater and directed the remaining salts to the passive region where they could be later collected without reducing the panel's efficiency.”

     With some modifications, the method can also be used to separate lithium from seawater:

“In a related paper in the Journal of Materials Chemistry A, Guo and his colleagues show how they can use the same superwicking solar panels to separate lithium from the rest of other salts in desalination. Embedding nanoparticles made of hydrogen titanate in the tiny grooves of the black metal surface isolates the lithium from other salts and minerals.”

     They tested the lithium separation process on water from the Great Salt Lake and were able to recover 50% of the lithium.

“Guo says now that the superwicking desalination technology has been demonstrated in proofs of concept on small-scale devices, he sees the technology as inherently scalable, capable of improving global access to drinking water and building more sustainable supply chains for precious minerals.”

     As the abstract from that paper notes, minerals recovery from the original process is nearly 100%, and when the hydrogen titanite nanoparticles are added, the extraction efficiency for lithium reaches 50%.

References:

 

Solar-powered desalination system turns ocean water into drinking water without waste. Science X staff. TechXplore. May 27, 2026. Solar-powered desalination system turns ocean water into drinking water without waste

Additive-free and brine-discharge-free solar-thermal desalination with simultaneous complete mineral mining from ocean water. Luheng Tang, Subhash C. Singh, Ran Wei, Tianshu Xu & Chunlei Guo. Light: Science & Applications volume 15, Article number: 246 (May 27, 2026). Additive-free and brine-discharge-free solar-thermal desalination with simultaneous complete mineral mining from ocean water | Light: Science & Applications

Rapid lithium extraction via solar-thermal interfacial evaporation with zero liquid discharge. Luheng Tang, Subhash C. Singh, Mingjiang Maa and Chunlei Guo. Journal of Materials Chemistry A. Issue 25, 2026. Rapid lithium extraction via solar-thermal interfacial evaporation with zero liquid discharge - Journal of Materials Chemistry A (RSC Publishing)

 

 

Canada to Supply LNG to Germany in New Deal: Competition for U.S. but not in Current High Demand Scenario: Canada Pivots to Europe as U.S. Relations Sour a Bit

     As EU countries continue to seek alternatives to Russian gas and as Canada remains tiffed at the U.S. about trade issues, Canada has announced that it will supply Germany with LNG via an export terminal to be built on its West Coast in British Columbia. The Ksi Lisims export terminal will be completed and ready to export sometime in the early 2030s, with a 20-year deal to supply Germany’s national energy utility company, Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE).  

     Trade tiffs between Trump and Canada’s leader Mark Carney have led to Carney to diversify its trade away from the U.S. The Ksi Lisims project is still awaiting its final investment decision (FID), but the new deal makes the FID likely to go forward. Carney has deemed the project to be of national importance and will likely fast-track it. The deal is a result of a trade mission undertaken by Carney and members of his cabinet last August to Berlin.

     Environmental and indigenous groups oppose the project and will likely do what they can to block and delay it. However, one indigenous group, the Nisga'a Nation, whose territory would house the Ksi Lisims LNG facility, supports the project.

     The BBC also notes that Carney has recently dissed U.S. tech for Swedish tech for early warning aircraft, in another sign of diversifying from U.S. trade.

“Carney announced that Canada will be purchasing early warning aircraft technology from a Swedish manufacturer instead of US contenders.”

“Carney has said Canada will reduce spending on US-made military gear, saying last April that "the days of our military sending 70 cents of every dollar to the United States are over".     

     Ksi Lisims is a proposed 12-million-tonne-per-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) project on Pearse Island on the northwest coast of British Columbia, Canada. It is planned to be powered with Canadian hydropower, to purchase carbon offsets, and to have much lower emissions than other LNG projects.

 

References:

 

Canada signs landmark LNG energy deal with Germany. Nadine Yousif. BBC. May 27, 2026. Canada signs landmark LNG energy deal with Germany

Ksi Lisims LNG. KSI LISIMS | Home

Electrolysis and Electrochemistry Can Neutralize and Convert Contaminants On-Site: New Technique Addresses Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), Including Toxic Pesticides

     Researchers at ETH Zurich, led by Bill Morandi, Professor of Synthetic Organic Chemistry, discovered a way, late last year, to convert some very toxic persistent organic pollutants on-site into other captured chemicals and byproducts. They can do this through electrolysis via alternating current and by utilizing electrochemistry principles.

     Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are chemically stable and can remain in soil, water, and organisms for decades. These include some very toxic chemicals like the pesticides DDT and lindane. POPs can also accumulate in fatty tissue and enter the food chain. Several of these chemicals were banned long ago, but are still present in the environment and in human blood.

     The new research offers hope that POPs can be remediated successfully.  

"The key advance of this new technology is the use of alternating current to sequester the problematic halogen atoms as innocuous salts such as NaCl (table salt), while still generating valuable hydrocarbons," says Morandi.

     According to ETH Zurich:

“A key distinction between this and previous work is that the carbon skeleton of the pollutants is recycled and made reusable, while the halide component is sequestered as a harmless inorganic salt. “The previous methods were also energetically inefficient,” says Patrick Domke, a doctoral student in Morandi’s group. He explains: “The processes were expensive and still led to outcomes that were harmful to the environment.”

     Phys.org writes:

“Electrolysis enables almost complete dehalogenation of pollutants under mild, environmentally friendly and cost-effective conditions. It cleaves the stable carbon-halogen bonds, leaving behind only harmless salts such as table salt and useful hydrocarbons such as benzene, diphenylethane or cyclododecatriene.”

     These useful hydrocarbons are used in many ways in the chemical industry. Thus, the discovery also enables a circular economy.

"Alternating current protects the electrodes from wear, which is why we can reuse them for many subsequent electrolysis cycles. In addition, the alternating current suppresses unwanted side reactions and the formation of poisonous chlorine gas, allowing the pollutant's halogen atoms to be fully converted to inorganic salts."

“The reactor used by the researchers consists of an undivided electrolysis cell in which dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) is used as a solvent—itself a by-product of the pulp process in paper production.”

     The process can directly treat soil and sludge without pretreatment or separation processes. A prototype reactor has been tested successfully on DDT and lindane. It can be assembled on-site. No hazardous substances need to be transported.

     According to the Re Soil Foundation, this new technique could be employed for a variety of POPs as well as other contaminants that are stable in the environment, such as the so-called forever chemicals like PFAS/PFOA. They note EPA’s designation of “persistent” and compare “half-lives” of different stable chemicals:

“According to a study, the half-life of certain fluorinated compounds – i.e., the time it takes for their presence in the environment to be halved after spraying – can reach two and a half years. This is less than the time required for some older pesticides such as DDT, but still 15 times higher than the 60-day limit set by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for defining a pollutant as ‘persistent’.”

    

 

References:

 

Can electrolysis solve one of the biggest contamination problems? Walter Schmid. Phys.org. November 25, 2025. Can electrolysis solve one of the biggest contamination problems?

Electrolysis can solve one of our biggest contamination problems. Walter Schmid, Corporate Communications. ETH Zurich. November 25, 2025. Electrolysis can solve one of our biggest contamination problems | ETH Zurich

Through electrolysis we can neutralize (and enhance) soil contaminants. Matteo Cavallito. Re Soil Foundation. December 22, 2025. Through electrolysis we can neutralize soil contaminants

 

 

Two Tank Failure Incidents on the West Coast Make News: Washington – 11 Likely Dead, 9 Injured in Implosion; California - Thousands Evacuated and Explosion Narrowly Averted

      A tank implosion at a paper mill in Washington likely killed 11 people, although only 2 bodies have so far been recovered, and injured 11 others. It is likely the largest industrial tragedy in the state’s history. A team of investigators with the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) arrived yesterday to investigate.

“The incident began when an industrial tank ruptured and released white liquor, a highly destructive chemical mixture used in the paper industry. In the initial aftermath, officials confirmed one death and nine injuries, including a firefighter who had responded to the scene. Seven workers remain hospitalized.”

     The white liquor is made up mostly of sodium hydroxide and sodium sulfide. It is used to break down wood into kraft paper.

     Any recovered victims have to undergo decontamination, which makes the process slow. Responders are encased in chemical protective equipment.

     This was a huge tank with a 900,000-gallon capacity. About 25,000 gallons remain in the tank. It is estimated that 500,000 gallons of caustic liquid leaked. It causes severe burns when it comes into contact with human skin.

     The plant has been in production since 1953. It produces enough paperboard to make roughly 6 billion milk cartons. Nippon Dynawave Packaging Co. employs about 1000 people at the packaging plant.

     Much of the liquid spilled into a nearby drainage ditch.

“Sampling revealed that contamination had entered the river on Tuesday, officials said, and dead carp were found. They urged the public to avoid ditches and dikes while the area undergoes water testing, but said there were no issues related to air quality or drinking water in Longview.”

     Meanwhile, a fire in a damaged tank at a California aerospace plant, thought to be in danger of exploding, luckily did not explode. The 7,000-gallon tank of the toxic and flammable chemical methyl methacrylate at GKN Aerospace in Garden Grove was first detected last week and resulted in the evacuation of tens of thousands of local residents. Up to 60,000 people were evacuated but have now returned to their homes.

“A problem with a valve in the refrigeration system, which was supposed to keep the tank at 50 degrees Fahrenheit, had caused overheating.”

     It was thought that an explosion was imminent. According to NBC News:

“Sprinklers from the company were on and trying to cool the tank, he said, and the fire department used a hose stream pouring 1,250 gallons a minute on it.”

“Those cooling measures were successful; it reduced the pressure,” Covey said.

“A gauge showed the tank had reached at least 100 degrees over the weekend, Covey said. On Tuesday, the temperature at the main tank was holding at 92 degrees, the fire agency said.

“A crack on the tank also helped relieve pressure and allowed crews to take more aggressive measures. Had the worst fear — a boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion, or BLEVE — occurred, it would have been a catastrophe, officials have said.”

     These incidents show that tank integrity determination and frequent comprehensive tank inspections are very important, especially in places where there are many people working near the tank, as in the paper mill.

 

 

 

References:

 

Tank-rupture tragedy may be deadliest in Washington history, governor says. Dani Anguiano and agencies. The Guardian. May 27, 2026. Tank-rupture tragedy may be deadliest in Washington history, governor says

All evacuation orders lifted after explosion at California chemical tank is averted. NBC News. May 26, 2026. All evacuation orders lifted after explosion at California chemical tank is averted

How a tank rupture disrupted life in a tight-knit Washington town that has lived with pulp mills for generations. CNN. May 28, 2026. How a tank rupture disrupted life in a tight-knit Washington town that has lived with pulp mills for generations - KTVZ

 

 

 

Environmental Groups Sue EPA Over Less Stringent Than Expected Incinerator Emissions Rules: One Third of New York City’s Residential Trash is Incinerated

     A coalition of environmental groups, led by Earthjustice and the Environmental Integrity Project, is suing the EPA over emissions rules for waste incinerators that are weaker than expected. The groups argue that the rule will allow continued harm to communities in Newark and elsewhere in New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and Long Island.

     One focus of the lawsuit is the Reworld Essex facility in Newark’s Ironbound neighborhood, which burns nearly 1 million tons of trash each year and generates about 66 megawatts of electricity.

     The Cool Down reports:

“Alejandra Torres, the Ironbound Community Corporation's assistant director of advocacy and organizing, said that the Newark incinerator ranks second in New Jersey for emissions of arsenic, hydrogen chloride, mercury, and nitrogen oxide.”

“Residents have long reported foul odors and breathing problems in a neighborhood already surrounded by heavy industry, truck traffic, power plants, and flight paths from Newark Airport.”

     Data from 2024 show that about one-third of New York City’s residential trash—and all of Manhattan’s residential trash—is burned in incinerators. Of Manhattan’s total, 66% is burned at the Newark facility. Incinerator pollution can have serious health effects, including higher cancer risk, developmental harm, and respiratory disease. In Newark’s Ironbound neighborhood, those risks are compounded by other pollution sources, including nearby factories, a sewage treatment plant, diesel truck traffic, and airport emissions. Nitrogen oxide, which contributes to smog, is emitted in greater quantities by the Newark incinerator than by any other source in the county. Community members have opposed the facility for years.

     The EPA’s new rule for municipal solid waste incinerators is stricter than the previous standard but less strict than the version proposed by the Biden administration.

     A lobbyist for the Waste-to-Energy Association defended less stringent rules in general:

“Waste-to-energy facilities serve a real public function: diverting millions of tons of material from landfills, reducing methane emissions and generating reliable electricity.”

     It seems to me that the main issue here is this specific incinerator, since each facility presents different risks depending on surrounding pollution sources, distance from residential areas, and the scale of its emissions. Residents have also long complained about foul odors, underscoring their lived experience of these impacts.

     The long-running debate between landfilling and incineration shows that both approaches have benefits and drawbacks. Because living near an incinerator increases exposure to well-known pollutants, proximity to residents should be a primary factor in permit decisions, emissions limits, and abatement requirements. In other words, allowable emissions should vary based on exposure risk.

 

References:

 

Coalition sues over EPA trash incinerator rules, says Newark families are breathing cancer-causing pollution. Brooklyn Smith. The Cool Down. May 24, 2026. Coalition sues over EPA trash incinerator rules, says Newark families are breathing cancer-causing pollution

Environmentalists hope lawsuit tightens polluting rules for Newark incinerator. Michael Sol Warren. Gothamist. May 17, 2026. Environmentalists hope lawsuit tightens polluting rules for Newark incinerator - Gothamist

IRONBOUND COMMUNITY CORPORATION, EAST YARD COMMUNITIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE, FLORIDA RISING, SIERRA CLUB, and SOUTH BALTIMORE COMMUNITY LAND TRUST, Petitioners, v. UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY and LEE ZELDIN, in his official capacity as Administrator, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Respondents. U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. May 11, 2026. 2026-05-11-lmwc-rule-petition-for-review.pdf

Bangladesh Offers Better Terms in Offshore Oil & Gas Blocks Tender to Lure Investment Amid Shortages and High Costs of Imports: The Geology Shows Prospectivity

     Like many South Asian countries, Bangladesh has been strongly affected by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, they have launched an international tender for oil and gas exploration in 27 offshore blocks in the Bay of Bengal, offering more attractive terms to foreign companies amid domestic gas shortages and reducing reliance on expensive LNG imports. State-run oil company Petrobangla has given a November 30 deadline for bid submissions.

“We have made the terms more attractive than before to encourage participation from international companies,” Energy Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood told a press conference.

“The offshore tender is part of the government’s action plan to increase domestic gas supply and reduce import dependence.”

     An offshore licensing round in March 2024 failed to attract a single bid despite several multinational companies purchasing data packages. The tender includes 15 deep-water and 12 shallow-water blocks in the Bay of Bengal. A review conducted after the failed 2024 round showed that foreign companies had raised concerns over gas pricing, pipeline construction costs, and profit-sharing obligations.

     Bangladesh resolved offshore border disputes with India in 2012 and with Myanmar in 2014. However, Bangladesh has yet to make a significant offshore gas discovery. Pakistan, India, and Myanmar have made discoveries and are continuing to drill offshore. Previous offshore Bangladesh exploration was done by major international companies, including ConocoPhillips, Santos, POSCO Daewoo, and ONGC, before they exited the projects.

     According to the Dhaka Tribune:

“The draft contract stipulates a nine-year exploration period. During the first four years, companies must complete geological surveys and either two-dimensional or three-dimensional seismic surveys. Two years will then be allocated for drilling exploration wells, followed by three years to move into production.”

“Petrobangla said geological surveys will be mandatory for all contracted companies.”

“Petrobangla expects offshore exploration activities to begin by the end of 2027 after completing the tendering and contractual processes.”

     The Bay of Bengal is considered to be a frontier exploration basin, contains the world's largest deep marine, and remains mostly unexplored for hydrocarbons. However, gas fields in the fan have been established, and the petroleum system is considered quite valid. Elisabeth Gillbard has written about the potential of the Bay of Bengal and provides a geological summary below.

“The Bengal Fan is the largest submarine fan in the world, with a length of up to 3000 km, a width of 1200 km, and up to 16 km of sediment thickness (Curray et al., 2003)”

“The Bay of Bengal is a rifted passive margin initially established during the disintegration of Gondwana (e.g., Curray, 1982; Powell, 1988; Curray, 1994). Rifting was initiated during the early Jurassic (~180 Ma) period, with the first oceanic crust forming in the Lower Cretaceous (120-130 Ma) as a result of the separation of the Indian and Antarctica plates (e.g., Gopala Rao et al., 1997). As India drifted northwards, it started its collision with Asia around 59 Ma, initiating the Himalayan uplift. However, the full hard continent-continent collision did not begin until around 15 Ma, resulting in the main Himalayan Orogeny and the major increase in sedimentation, which resulted in the deposition of the Bengal Fan. The Sunda Subduction Zone and Indo-Burman accretionary prism mark the eastern extent of the Bay of Bengal, active since approximately 20 Ma. Compression from this margin is evident in the east part of the area of interest (AOI), with structural deformation decreasing westwards.”

     Direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHIs) are present in the seismic data. Clusters of prograding fluvial-deltaic channel sands are prospective in the shallow submarine fan system, and basin floor fans and isolated channels are prospective in the deeper waters. 

“All the recent discoveries within the Bengal Fan have been sourced from intraformational biogenic gas contemporaneous with the reservoirs (Shoup et al., 2017). However, there is also considerable evidence for several thermogenic systems. The gas source for the nearshore Sangu Field has been typed to Miocene interbedded shales, and equivalent sequences were drilled in the BODC and Bina wells further offshore, where they were found to be oil-prone Type III shales (Baric et al., 1977). Pre-fan, Late Eocene to Early Oligocene source rocks actively produce oil and gas in adjacent Myanmar. Meanwhile, analogue basins offshore East India yield oil-prone source rocks of Upper Cretaceous age. Gas hydrates and direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHIs) are very common within the seismic data, proving an active gas system.”

 

References:

 

Bangladesh offers sweetened terms in offshore tender to tackle energy crunch. Ruma Paul. Reuters. May 24, 2026. Bangladesh offers sweetened terms in offshore tender to tackle energy crunch

Bangladesh launches offshore oil and gas bidding round for 27 Bay blocks: Government offers export opportunities, tax incentives and duty exemptions to attract foreign investors and boost energy security. Dhaka Tribune. May 27, 2026. Bangladesh launches offshore oil and gas bidding round for 27 Bay blocks

Unveiling the petroleum potential of one of the world’s last frontier petroleum provinces: the Bengal Fan, offshore Bangladesh. Elisabeth Gillbard. TGS. First Break, Vol. 42, May 2024. 23604-FB24 May_08 ST Gillbard 04-12.pdf

Effects of Hypersaline Desalination Brine Discharges: There Are Environmental and Ecosystem Effects: The Arabian Gulf is Susceptible Due to Weak Waves and Less Freshwater Input

     Desalination plants produce waste brine, hypersaline (super-salty) water rich in chlorides and other components, including FeCl3, NaOCl, AlCl3, and H2SO4 (sulfuric acid). The different chemicals come from different processes of the plant. In most cases, the waste brine is simply released back into the sea. Typically, for every liter of freshwater produced, there is 1.5 liters of waste brine produced. The concentration of these brines is in the range of 60,000 to 70,000 parts per million (ppm). Desalination plants are common in the Middle East, where freshwater resources can be scarce. The Arabian Gulf is shallow and lacks strong currents, and freshwater flowing into it has been reduced due to upstream dams and diversions. Saltwater from the oil & gas industry also makes its way to the Arabian Sea. The Gulf is now about 25% saltier than typical seawater, with hotspots double or triple its regular salinity. This also means that desalination will have to work harder to remove the extra salts from the water, which will in turn create even saltier waste brine.

     Most desalination plants rely on reverse osmosis to remove the salts. The resulting waste brine also typically contains additives such as antiscalants and coagulants. It is denser than the seawater it is discharged into, which makes it sink to the bottom of the sea and spread out over the seafloor. This can have significant impacts on benthic organisms, including bacteria, seagrasses, polychaetes, and corals. Seagrass, which is normally salt-tolerant, is often killed by hypersaline water. This is not desirable since seagrass has well-known environmental benefits. The high salinity, as well as the antiscalants, can negatively affect corals, leading to partial bleaching. The symbiotic species that cling to coral are also reduced significantly by the waste brine.

     There are other environmental impacts of desalination plants, including the trapping of many aquatic organisms through the intakes. This adds to the waste brine effects to lower the richness of marine organisms near the plants. Benthic organisms may be significantly affected in coastal areas near the brine discharge outfalls.

     Rich countries like the UAE and Israel have the most desalination capacity. Multiple plants from the Gulf states can combine to degrade seawater quality in a region such as the Arabian Gulf.

     The article in Climate Compass notes that desalination projects are set to grow significantly over the coming years.

“The global desalination market is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.8 percent, with an increase from US$15.2 billion in 2022 to US$22.5 billion in 2026. Investment is accelerating fast. The global water desalination market was recorded at USD 20.32 billion in 2023, and is expected to reach up to USD 44.57 billion in 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.12 percent forecast for the period 2024 to 2032.”

     They note that site selection for discharge is a key factor for reducing impacts. They also note that more monitoring should be implemented to minimize environmental and ecosystem impacts.

“A clear consensus across many reviewed scientific articles is that discharge site selection is the primary factor that determines the extent of ecological impacts of desalination plants. Ecological monitoring studies have found variable effects ranging from no significant impacts to benthic communities, through to widespread alterations to community structure in seagrass, coral reef, and soft-sediment ecosystems when discharges are released to poorly flushed environments. The science is telling regulators exactly what they need to know.”

“The urgency of rethinking brine management is clear, with integrated approaches needed that balance water security with resource efficiency in a water-constrained world. The industry is growing faster than the rules designed to govern it, and the gap between the rate of expansion and the pace of environmental monitoring continues to widen in most of the world's most water-stressed regions.”

 

  

 

References:

 

Desalination's dark side: Why it might not be the silver bullet we hoped for. Jeff Blaumberg. Climate Compass. March 7, 2026. Desalination's dark side: Why it might not be the silver bullet we hoped for

The Atlantic Council’s Energy Sanction Dashboard Provides Data, Analysis, History, and Implications of Energy Sanctions

      I have previously posted on this blog some of Bloomberg’s very good analysis of the shadow fleet oil and LNG trade of sanctioned oil & gas, and who is buying it. The Atlantic Council also has a great tool for exploring energy sanctions, focusing specifically on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan oil.

     The use of less detectable shadow fleets with deliberately opaque ownership and ship-to-ship transfers of oil to unsanctioned tankers has aided the shadow system to thrive. They note that the sanctioned shadow fleets and transshipment networks allowed China to save up to $28.8 million per day on imports at peak discount levels.

“US sanctions waivers, rising oil prices, and supply shortages following the conflict in Iran have boosted demand for Russian crude. Since the waivers were issued, Russia has supplied approximately 300 million barrels to the international market as of May 11, with India re-emerging as a major importer and Southeast Asia emerging as a new destination for Russian crude.”

“The Atlantic Council’s Energy Sanctions Dashboard, created by the Economic Statecraft Initiative and Global Energy Center,

1) assesses how sanctions have impacted global crude oil flows,

2) explores the unintended consequences for the global crude oil industry, and

3) analyzes lessons learned about the deployment of energy sanctions for achieving foreign policy objectives.”

     The currently unresolved, but hopefully soon-to-be resolved Strait of Hormuz disruption is considered to be the biggest energy market disruption in history, with Asia being the most affected region, followed by Europe.

     They note that after Lukoil and Rosneft were sanctioned in October 2025, China briefly stopped importing oil from Russia but resumed imports by shifting the destinations to smaller refiners, less exposed to sanctions enforcement actions. China was also able to import sanctioned Venezuelan oil at a nice discount in 2025. China also buys most of the sanctioned Iranian oil, including oil with unknown buyers, which are thought to be mostly Chinese buyers. In 2025, the discounts meant that sanctioned oil was selling at 10-15$ per barrel cheaper than non-sanctioned oil. However, since the Iran War broke out, Russia has been able to sell oil at $10 higher than the elevated Brent prices, giving Putin’s war machine a needed lifeline, unfortunately.

     The Atlantic Council does call for stricter sanctions enforcement. We saw some of that in late 2025 and early 2026 with the seizing of some tankers, but with temporary sanctions waivers, enforcement has dropped.

     It turns out China was wise to stockpile oil in 2025, which makes it less affected by the Iran situation. It is unfortunate, but other Southeast Asian countries, such as India and Indonesia, have made deals to import Russian oil under the sanctions waivers, but the Atlantic Council sees it also as diversifying their supply from the Middle East, and this may continue after the sanctions waivers are ended. It will take some time for the oil markets to get supply back up to pre-war levels. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have also negotiated with Russia for some of that waiver oil. China has responded to U.S. efforts for:

“…secondary sanctions to target shadow fleets, foreign refiners, maritime and financial intermediaries, and overseas commercial and banking infrastructure, including intermediaries in China, the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, Iraq, and Oman. In response, China ordered its companies not to comply with US sanctions against Chinese refineries, deploying its “prohibition order” for the first time. The move marks a shift in Beijing’s response to US sanctions, from one where China would have rhetorically condemned US trade restrictions while allowing companies to comply, to a more confrontational approach.”

     The Atlantic Council recommends two important ways to tackle the long-established sanctions evasion networks, which they call the “Axis of Evasion.”

“To preserve energy sanctions as an effective tool of economic statecraft against Russia and Iran, the United States should focus on targeting two central elements of sanctions evasion networks: shadow fleet tankers and Chinese “teapot” refineries. These elements have facilitated Russia-Iran-China oil trade for years and were notably analyzed by Kimberly Donovan and Maia Nikoladze in their March 2024 “Axis of Evasion” article” 

 

 

References:

 

Energy Sanctions Dashboard: How the Iran Conflict is Reshaping Sanctioned Crude Oil Flows. The Atlantic Council. May 21, 2026. Energy Sanctions Dashboard - Atlantic Council