Stoicism and Its Influence on Military and Secular Leaders: Reason, Responsibility, Good Citizenship, and Ethics are Emphasized

     When I was taught a little Greek philosophy in grade school, the Stoics and Epicureans were depicted as having opposing approaches to what they considered a good life. Later, I learned that was not really the case. Stoics were depicted as somber and gloomy in contrast to the fun-loving Epicureans. But discipline is not incompatible with joy and pleasure.  Adherence to duty and responsibility is a feature of Stoicism. The Buddhists say that discipline can bring a sense of joy. Psychologists say virtuosos and athletes get into “the zone,” where they experience joy in their craft. Confucius also stressed the importance of duty and the joy that could be found within it. Discipline and self-control can be developed, and success in them can bring joy or a sense of accomplishment.  

     The Stoics also stressed the importance of logic and noted that it was a prerequisite and a foundation for ethics. Their logic system involves premises and conclusions. Examples are given below of logical connectives, modal definitions, and indemonstrable arguments.

     I was fortunate to hear about modern practitioners of Stoicism on the PBS show Firing Line with Margaret Hoover. One included Daily Stoic founder Ryan Holiday and retired General and former Defense Secretary James Mattis. The other was an interview with retired General Stanley McChrystal. They noted how Stoic values helped them strive to be better warriors, better public servants, and better people. Mattis brought up the Crosby, Stills, and Nash song ‘Teach Your Children,’ and its lyrics: “You who are on the road must have a code that you can live by.” He argued that Stoicism can provide a useful code to live by.

     Wikipedia describes Stoicism as:

“…a philosophical movement and practical guide to living, emphasizing daily self-discipline and moral improvement, which originated in the Hellenistic period of ancient Greece and proliferated well into the Roman Imperial period.”

     Zeno of Citium is considered to be the founder of Stoicism around 300 B.C. He was influenced by the Cynics.  His most influential successor was Chrysippus.

“Stoicism became the foremost popular philosophy among the educated elite in the Hellenistic world and the Roman Empire to the point where, in the words of Gilbert Murray, "nearly all the successors of Alexander [...] professed themselves Stoics". Later Roman Stoics placed greater emphasis on practical ethics and the cultivation of inner moral discipline in everyday life.”

     Stoicism was popular in Asia Minor in the city of Tarsus, where Saul of Tarsus, aka. the Apostle Paul, lived before he went to Jerusalem. He was a fierce critic of early Christianity before he experienced his epiphany on the road to Damascus and became a disciple of Jesus. The Stoics in Tarsus were known to be “mythmakers” and developed their own prophetic mystery cults. Some have ascribed this function to Paul as a mythmaker of Christianity. He was known to be influenced by Stoicism and to be responsible for the early Christians being fond of the Stoic ideas of Epictetus and the Roman Stoic Seneca. The Discourses of Epictetus is an important source. Other influential Stoic philosophers include the Roman philosopher Musonius Rufus and the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius, whose book, Meditations, is considered to be a classic of Stoicism and remains popular to this day. The Roman Pyrrhonist philosopher Sextus Empiricus was also fond of Stoicism and was a good source of information about Stoicism.

     The Stoics believed that adhering to their tenets of virtue could lead to eudaimonia: a well-lived life. They believed that:

“…people should aim to maintain a will (called prohairesis) that is "in accordance with nature". Because of this, the Stoics thought the best indication of an individual's philosophy was not what a person said but how the person behaved.

     Stoicism was revived somewhat in the Renaissance, and later in the 18th century, the philosopher Immanuel Kant developed an interest in Stoic logic. More contemporary revivals of Stoicism derive from the publication of the book ‘Problems in Stoicism’ by A. A. Long in 1971.

     As noted below, Stoicism also likely formed a basis of modern cognitive psychotherapy, particularly cognitive behavioral therapy.

“Stoic philosophy was the original philosophical inspiration for modern cognitive psychotherapy, particularly as mediated by Albert Ellis' rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT), the major precursor of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). The original cognitive therapy treatment manual for depression by Aaron T. Beck et al. states, "The philosophical origins of cognitive therapy can be traced back to the Stoic philosophers.”

     In more recent times, Ryan Holiday, founder of Daily Stoic, has been a champion of Stoicism. He cites the Stoicism of Frederick the Great, Montaigne, George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, Ambrose Bierce, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Theodore Roosevelt, and General James Mattis.

     The four virtues, or values of Stoicism, are courage, temperance, justice, and wisdom. Seneca noted that encountering misfortune allows us and can enable us to be courageous in confronting it. Aristotle noted that there can be too much courage, which can lead to recklessness. Thus, he advocated for the right amount of courage. Temperance, or moderation, is simply avoiding excess. Epictetus emphasized developing virtuous habits through practicing moderation. Marcus Aurelius noted that justice is the source of all the other virtues. The Daily Stoic cites the Roman thinker Cato as influential on George Washington’s and Thomas Jefferson’s notions of democracy and justice. Wisdom is a virtue that allows us to grow through lifelong learning and by making efforts to understand things as they are.  They note:

“Wisdom has always been prized by the Stoics. Zeno said that we were given two ears and one mouth for a reason: to listen more than we talk. And since we have two eyes, we are obligated to read and observe more than we talk as well.”

“It is key today, as it was in the ancient world, to be able to distinguish between the vast aggregations of information that lay out there at your disposal—and the actual wisdom that you need to live a good life. It’s key that we study, that we keep our minds open always. You cannot learn that which you think you already know, Epictetus said. It’s true.”

     They also stress that true wisdom is accompanied by humility.

     Holiday and the Daily Stoic offer nine Stoic exercises to practice. I have found that there are remarkable parallels with Buddhist philosophy, which I will point out.

1)        The Dichotomy of Control. This involves seeking to understand what parts of life are controllable and which are not controllable, what we can change and what we can’t. As I am well-versed in Buddhist philosophy, I know this is one of several parallels between Stoicism and Buddhism. The Buddhist version, from Shantideva’s ‘Way of the Bodhisattva,’ goes something like this: If you can change it, change it. If you can’t, then it simply must be accepted, and one should not worry about what one can’t change.

2)        Journaling. This simply refers to writing down or otherwise keeping a record. This is journaling as a form of self-examination. One method is to review what you have done in a day and write about it. Marcus Aurelius’s ‘Meditations’ was written to himself, as a form of journaling. “It’s not enough to simply hear these lessons once, instead, one practices them over and over again, turns them over in their mind, and most importantly, writes them down and feels them flowing through their fingers in doing so.” This sounds like the three activities important in Buddhism: hearing, contemplating, and meditating.

3)        Practice Misfortune. The Roman Stoic philosopher, Seneca, said we should practice poverty. They note that comfort can be a form of slavery in that we worry about losing our comfort. Anxiety and fear arise from the mind, not from experience. They are judgments about the future. We are advised to practice what we fear. There is another Buddhist parallel here in the words of the female Tibetan practitioner Machi Labdron, who said: “Go to the places that scare you.” They quote Seneca: “It is in times of security that the spirit should be preparing itself for difficult times; while fortune is bestowing favors on it is then is the time for it to be strengthened against her rebuffs.”

4)        Train Perceptions. This involves seeing obstacles as opportunities. This occurs in the Stoic practice known as “turning the obstacle upside down.”  Marcus Aurelius stated it as: “The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way.”  They explain it as: “There is no good or bad to the practicing Stoic. There is only perception. You control perception.” A Buddhist might say “the path is the goal” or that all obstacles are chances to practice, and one should therefore be grateful for them.  

5)        Remember—It’s All Ephemeral. The point here is that all of our achievements can’t really be possessed. They are fleeting, often quite temporary, and their importance fades away. Thus, we should not get too attached to them. The Buddhist parallel would be the notion that this life is basically a dream that is gone in an instant, so getting attached to accomplishments is not useful.

6)        Take The View from Above. Here, they note that Marcus Aurelius would practice the “bird’s eye view,” the view from above, which is perhaps equivalent to looking at the big picture. Stoic scholar Pierre Hadot described it like this: “The view from above changes our value judgments on things: luxury, power, war…and the worries of everyday life become ridiculous.” They note that the point of the exercise is to “tap into what the Stoics call sympatheia, or a mutual interdependence with the whole of humanity. As the astronaut Edgar Mitchell, one of the first people to actually experience a real ‘view from above’ put it, “In outer space you develop an instant global consciousness, a people orientation, an intense dissatisfaction with the state of the world, and a compulsion to do something about it.” Take a step back from your own concerns and remind yourself of your duty to others. Take Plato’s view.”  A likely Buddhist parallel would be to avoid attachment, to avoid getting caught up in self-importance, which is known as “ego-clinging,” and is known as the root cause of all suffering. To zoom out is to see the world from the perspective of others or from a cosmic perspective, rather than see it as revolving around oneself.

7)        Memento Mori: Meditate On Your Mortality. We are all going to die, and we had best remember that as much as we can. Seneca said, “The one who puts the finishing touches on their life each day is never short of time.” Socrates was said to have originated the practice of memento mori, or meditation on one’s death, at least in the so-called Western tradition. At around the same time as Socrates lived, the Buddha taught in India. The early teachings describe an extensive way to meditate on death, including sitting with human corpses and even enduring the stench and observing the stages of decomposition. This is part of meditating on impermanence. The Japanese Zen teacher Suzuki Shosan was a former Samurai whose main practice became constantly being aware of his own mortality. Seneca said we die every day and don’t know if we will wake the next day. Epictetus told his students: “Keep death and exile before your eyes each day, along with everything that seems terrible— by doing so, you’ll never have a base thought nor will you have excessive desire.”

8)        Premeditatio Malorum. This involves planning for all possibilities in one’s mind, even those one dreads. Premeditatio Malorum means “the premeditation of evils.” This is simply preparing oneself psychologically for the inevitable misfortunes of life. This is another practical or pragmatic aspect of Stoicism where one mentally prepares for all contingencies. Humans develop expectations and are often disappointed when they are not met. A possible Buddhist parallel is again the practice of non-attachment. In this case, to expectations. Seneca noted: “Nothing happens to the wise man against his expectation,” he wrote to a friend. “. . . nor do all things turn out for him as he wished but as he reckoned—and above all he reckoned that something could block his plans.”   

9)        Amor Fati. This means a “love of fate,” or a deep acceptance of fate. Marcus Aurelius describes it thus: “To love only what happens, what was destined. No greater harmony.” This is a way to live in the moment. German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche described it as loving whatever happens. They describe it as “treating each and every moment—no matter how challenging—as something to be embraced, not avoided.” Accepting whatever happens is a common and important Buddhist practice as well.

     In conclusion, I would agree that Stoicism provides a nice framework philosophy that is indeed applicable to modern times. I can also understand why some military leaders and leaders in general are attracted to the philosophy. The Greek and Roman philosophers were not just thinkers. They lived their ideals as best they could, and as Socrates illustrated, sometimes suffered unfortunate fates. I am also a fan of other varieties of Ancient Greek philosophy, including Cynicism, Pyrrhonism, Epicureanism, Academic Skepticism, Pythagoras, the pre-Socratics, and Neoplatonism, to name some.

     

 

 

References:

 

Stoicism. Wikipedia. Stoicism - Wikipedia

What Is Stoicism? A Definition & 9 Stoic Exercises To Get You Started: Stoic Exercises, Wisdom, and More. Daily Stoic. What Is Stoicism? A Definition & 9 Stoic Exercises To Get You Started

 

Household Air Pollution and Clean Cooking Fuels: Despite Efforts, Many Still Lack Access: LP Gas, aka Propane, Offers the Most Practical Solution: Efforts by the UN, WHO, and Others

     Programs to promote and subsidize clean cooking fuels have been around for a long time. The fuels they replace cause respiratory diseases, particularly among women and children who breathe the toxic smoke. While environmentalist elites in the U.S. try to depict natural gas and LP gas, or propane, as toxic because they do emit some nitrogen oxides (NOx), those other fuels, including wood, charcoal, kerosene, crop residues, dung, and even coal, emit far worse pollutants. Compared to them, natural gas and LP gas are clean. Hence, the relative term “clean cooking fuels.” LPG does not produce the fine particulate matter and soot as the solid fuels do, and that makes it much healthier for those in the home, especially when the stoves are unvented, which is often the case.

       Jennifer Hernandez and Vijaya Ramachandran wrote an article about clean cooking fuels in The Ecomodernist that highlights the work of Kirk Smith in solving this problem over several decades. They write:

“Beginning in the early 1980s, Smith studied the consequences of cooking with solid fuels in poorly ventilated homes. He and his colleagues documented the links between household smoke and serious illness, including childhood pneumonia, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease. His work on clean cooking in India helped transform household air pollution from a largely overlooked problem into a major public-health and development priority. Smith worked with Indian researchers to measure women’s exposure to smoke from traditional cooking fuels such as wood, dung, charcoal, and crop residues. That fieldwork helped establish the scientific basis for understanding household air pollution as a serious cause of respiratory and cardiovascular disease, especially among women and young children.”

     Smith argued that slightly cleaner biomass stoves were an inadequate solution and advocated for the use of LPG.

“By documenting the risks of solid-fuel cooking and making the case for clean fuels at scale, Smith helped shift clean cooking from a niche stove-design issue to a central question of health, gender equity, air quality, and development. Smith and his collaborators showed that household air pollution was among the world’s largest environmental health risks, contributing to millions of premature deaths each year.”

     The World Health Organization notes that about one quarter of the world’s population, or 2.1 billion people, are exposed to high levels of household air pollution. This is expected to fall to 1.8 billion people by 2030, which is great, but not nearly enough. These toxic cooking methods are estimated to cause 2.9 million premature deaths per year, including 309,000 children dying per year. Sub-Saharan Africa leads the world in lack of access to clean cooking fuels, with an estimated 923 million people lacking access. This is where the majority of people lack access to electricity.

     The specific diseases caused by toxic cooking fuels and their occurrence are listed by the WHO below:

     The WHO points out that rural people are especially affected by the lack of clean cooking fuels.

“There is a large discrepancy in access to cleaner cooking alternatives between urban and rural areas: in 2021, only 14% of people in urban areas relied on polluting fuels and technologies, compared with 49% of the global rural population.”

     Of course, there are fuels cleaner than LPG. These include electricity, solar, biogas, and ethanol, but biogas cleanliness is variable depending on how processed it is. These options are often not available and not affordable.  

     They list another benefit of switching from wood and charcoal to LPG. It saves the local forests from being stripped away as they have in several places in the world, including central Africa and Haiti.

“The contrast between Haiti and the Dominican Republic illustrates the point. The two countries share the island of Hispaniola and have similar environmental conditions, but they have followed very different cooking-fuel paths. The Dominican Republic shifted much more of its household cooking away from wood and charcoal and toward LPG or electricity, while Haiti has remained heavily dependent on charcoal.”

     Forests in Haiti have been cut down, while those in the Dominican Republic have been preserved. This is a major reason that flooding causes such devastation in Haiti but not in the Dominican Republic. Forests stripped for cooking fuels in Africa have led to destructive landslides that have killed many.

     Another issue is that women and children spend considerable time sourcing and gathering these toxic cooking fuels, time that could be spent on education. It also puts them at risk for injury and violence.

     WHO also points out that indoor air pollution is a major contributor to outdoor air pollution.

     They note that Smith was concerned that restrictions on fossil fuel use due to climate change concerns would lead to restrictions on LPG use, which would ensure guaranteed health problems for billions of women and children. They write:

“A targeted LPG subsidy for poor households must be evaluated as a public-health intervention, not as a generic fossil-fuel subsidy.”

     They stress that LPG must be made affordable, with subsidization as necessary. It should also be widely available. They argue that policy should support LPG as the major solution until affordable electricity is available. They also argue that Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) should not be pitted against climate concerns.

“The same principle applies more broadly. Energy policy should not be reduced to a choice between climate and development goals. Healthier and more prosperous societies are generally better able to invest in environmental protection, forest restoration, and cleaner energy systems. Climate policy should support energy transitions within poor households, to improve health outcomes and alleviate the burden of poverty.”

     WHO recently reported that the UN’s SDG on ambient and household air pollution has not been improving over the past 5 years but has remained more or less stable since COVID. There are three SDGs regarding ambient and household air pollution, listed below.

     There are also efforts from the private sector that focus on problems like clean cooking fuels. One, I wrote about earlier this year, Energy Corps, was founded by energy CEO Toby Rice, his wife, and prominent geologist and energy expert Scott Tinker. 

References:

 

A Practical Climate Test: Clean Cooking for the World’s Poor: A recognition of Kirk Smith and his refusal to prioritize climate change over the needs of the world’s poor. Jennifer Hernandez and Vijaya Ramachandran. The Ecomodernist. July 17, 2026. A Practical Climate Test: Clean Cooking for the World’s Poor

Household air pollution. World Health Organization. December 26, 2025. Household air pollution

New SDG data shows stalled progress on air pollution and health. World Health Organization. June 29, 2026. New SDG data shows stalled progress on air pollution and health

 

Canadian Wildfire Smoke is Bad for Americans., But U.S. Wildfire Smoke is Also Bad for Canadians, and Ways to Be Protected

 

     No one wants to breathe unhealthy, toxic air. Combustion in its various forms is responsible for particulate matter (PM), which is dangerous to breathe. It does not only matter how big the source is, but where one is relative to it. Sources of PM include wildfires, campfires, bonfires, wood-burning fireplaces, coal-fired power plants, biomass power plants, waste-to-energy power plants, coke plants, industrial combustion processes, diesel-burning transportation, home heating, ships, trains, jets, smoking, and many more. Wildfires can be a major and dominant force. Weather inversions can bring the smoke closer to the ground, where humans have no choice but to breathe it. This happens very often in places like California, where a significant portion of it comes from China and Southeast Asia. California consistently has some of the worst air quality in the U.S., due in no small part to its susceptibility to these weather or heat inversions. Thus, poor air quality events from wildfire smoke require two conditions: fires and a weather inversion to hold the smoke down.

     A few years ago, my car dealer’s repair shop offered a free cabin air filter replacement when Canadian wildfire smoke was present. That is one way we can protect ourselves. Another is simply staying indoors when the air quality is bad due to PM. Vulnerable people might want to wear masks or use home air purifiers. PM pollution can be dangerous, especially for vulnerable people. I wrote a detailed post on PM pollution last August.

     A group of Republican Senators just penned an angry letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, demanding better forest management practices in light of three consecutive years of cross-border Canadian wildfire smoke events. However, sometimes the opposite occurs when smoke from U.S. wildfires impedes Canadian air quality. The letter included the following:

"Our hospitals are once again treating children, dialysis patients, and older residents for the effects of smoke that did not originate anywhere near them."

“This is the third consecutive year we have had to write to Canadian officials about a crisis that Canada has the tools to prevent and has chosen not to."

     The pic below shows Vancouver in 2020 under a blanket of U.S. wildfire smoke.

     I don’t know whether Canada could manage its forests better to prevent fires or not. Experts have noted that there are other climate and weather factors that make fire more or less likely. According to an article in Cleveland.com:

“Canada’s forests have always experienced wildfires as part of natural ecosystems, but scientists say today’s fires are increasingly occurring under conditions that allow them to grow larger and burn longer, according to CBS. Warmer temperatures, reduced snowpack, dry vegetation and prolonged drought create landscapes where fires can ignite more easily and become more difficult to contain.”

“Forest management practices, including removing excess vegetation, conducting controlled burns and creating firebreaks, can help reduce wildfire risks in certain areas, USA TODAY reported. But experts say those tools cannot completely prevent large-scale fires, particularly when weather conditions create extreme fire behavior across millions of acres of remote forest.”

     Canada’s fires in recent years have broken records. They did not change their forest management practices that had been sufficient until the more recent fires. Perhaps they should intensify those efforts, but it’s not likely that will solve the problem.

“Scientists and wildfire specialists, however, caution that blaming forest management alone overlooks the broader forces driving today’s fire seasons. They say a combination of climate change, weather patterns, forest conditions and human decisions all contribute to the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires.”

     Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno said he would introduce legislation to sanction Canada over the wildfire smoke, and another GOP senator from affected Michigan quipped:

“Unless you want to become the 51st state, learn to manage your forests.”

     I think the proposed sanctions and the rhetoric, including calls to enter Canada and fix the forests for them, are uncalled for, disproportionate, and an insult to our friendly neighbors.

     Moreno called for forest thinning, fuel reduction, prescribed burns, and beefed-up enforcement against arson. I don’t know how much that would help. Some major fires have been started by prescribed burns that got out of control. Detection and enforcement of arson is difficult in any case.

Addendum - right after I posted this, I got in my car and drove to town, noticed the smoky air, and even smelled it. Then my A/C stopped blowing cool air. Then I remembered to set the air to recirculate so that no air comes in from outside. This was a recommendation for smoky air and also for hot days in general. It's possible that my cabin air filter got clogged. I may pull it out and either replace it or clean it. I was lucky that after a while, it started blowing cool air again.  

  

 

References:

 

When American Smoke Choked Canada: Some Republican lawmakers have blamed Canada for poor air quality in the United States and said poor forest management is to blame. But Canadians have also inhaled smoke from American wildfires. Ephrat Livni. New York Times. July 17, 2026. When American Smoke Choked Canada - The New York Times

GOP senator to introduce bill to sanction Canada over wildfire smoke. Alexander Bolton. The Hill. July 16, 2026. GOP senator to introduce bill to sanction Canada over wildfire smoke

Canada wildfires are sending smoke across U.S. - but experts say there’s more to the story. Chris Pugh. Cleveland.com. July 17, 2026. Why Canada Wildfires Aren’t Only About Forest Management - syracuse.com

Canada attacked by Republicans over wildfire smoke crossing US border. Tag24 News. July 17, 2026. Canada attacked by Republicans over wildfire smoke crossing US border

 

 

 

   

AAPG Subsurface AI Special Report: Summary & Review

     This special report was sponsored by Aspen Tech. AI in oil & gas is not new. Beginning with simple neural networks and in the past decade with large language models and generative AI, the sector is embracing AI and achieving positive results. The report cites seismic surveying, reservoir evaluation, data validation, production strategies and optimization, multidisciplinary collaboration, predictive maintenance, and drilling optimization as examples. Digital twins, or real-time digital models, have been and are being deployed in several areas. Digital twins and generative AI have already been credited with increasing production and decreasing costs. Oil & gas companies generate vast quantities of data, including 3D seismic data, well logs, drilling data, and production analysis data. Thus, they are quite amenable to AI analysis that can find hidden relationships in the data.

     The report identifies four key themes for subsurface AI in 2026.

1. Simplifying Vendor Portfolios. This is important for reducing the siloing of data and putting it all in a single system. With a single encompassing platform, AI can act as an application programming interface (API). AspenTech’s Subsurface Intelligence “brings together domain-specific agents (for geophysics, formation evaluation, petrophysics, geomodelling and reservoir engineering) using AI capabilities.”

“AI-propelled software is enabling companies to use a single platform to work with multimodal data. Data analytics software company Databricks’ Data Intelligence Platform bridges data warehouses (where structured data informs decisions, but raw data is often problematic) with data lakes (repositories for raw data). “

“Leveraging Databricks, companies standardize schemas, manage quality, and keep datasets in sync as new sources come online,” says Enterprise Solutions Specialist at DataBricks, Reagan Kennedy. “With that data they can apply AI/ML capabilities, build out analytics, and expose the data via APIs and applications so existing tools can read/write against the same data instead of maintaining their own silos.”

2. Automation of Upstream Workflows with Agentic AI. They define agentic AI systems as systems that “autonomously act, decide, and orchestrate multistep workflows.” These systems are currently moving from the pilot phase to being fully operational. Output moves from making suggestions in generative AI to initiating actions in agentic AI.

“…generative AI might suggest a reservoir model to help with well planning. Agentic AI would use automation to rapidly create the model and then query asset-wide data to understand where the next best places to drill are or to predict the outcomes of different development strategies.”

“Additionally, multi-agent frameworks can coordinate across subsurface disciplines simultaneously: One agent interprets stratigraphy, another models pore pressure, a third cross-references offset well data.”

     Agents are typically limited to what they were designed to do, such as analyze the geology of a single basin. Thus, location-specific and domain-specific validation is important. AI offers faster project analysis and better integration of data, and geologists should incorporate it smartly to save time and improve overall subsurface analysis.

3. The Open Subsurface Data Universe Launches. The Open Subsurface Data Universe (OSDU) was developed beginning in 2018 by major oil companies, including Anadarko, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Devon, Equinor, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies, along with tech companies. It aimed “to create a single, open, cloud-native data platform where seismic, well log, reservoir, and production data could live, communicate, and be accessed by any application, regardless of vendor or operator.” OSDU was not without rollout problems in integrating different kinds of data, but it is still being perfected. AspenTech’s OSDU czar, Dani Alsaab, noted:

“The future is multi-vendor collaboration in the upstream ecosystem, and we see ironclad commitment to OSDU as a differentiator for the future.” 

     The report notes that OSDU is still the best framework yet devised for the standardization of subsurface data. However, it has yet to be widely adopted outside of large oil & gas companies and still has challenges with interoperability and the integration of proprietary data.

4. Using AI to Train the Next Generation of Workers. They note that new employees can be aided by better AI integration of “how-to” functions in software so that software competency is improved and employee training is advanced. Software competency is a very important skill for modern geologists. However, it should not eclipse training in geology, but ideally complement it.

“GenAI with domain guardrails is the way to transfer technical knowledge and experience to the next generation of workers,” said AspenTech’s AI CTO Heiko Claussen. “We see this as a way to give our four decades of technology leadership that has been built into our domain-specific software a new lease on life: It is an evergreen way to make future workers experts. It empowers us to add value to industry in new ways. There will be plenty of jobs, but the core skills will be how knowledge workers best leverage, interpret, and take advantage of these new AI tools.”     

     While I think this is all important, I also think that geologists should not abandon the basics of geology for AI-based approaches in all domains. We should always remember that AI functions best as a digital assistant, hopefully a remarkably competent one that can advance successful solutions to problems.

    

References:

 

AAPG Subsurface AI Special Report. Sponsored by AspenTech. 2026. AAPG_SubsurfaceAI_SpecialReport_2026.pdf

 

Lake Powell and the Colorado River System Face Continued Drought and Reduced Hydropower Output

     Lake Powell in Arizona is part of the Colorado River system. The U.S. Southwest has been undergoing a long-term drought, and water levels continue to drop, nearing critical thresholds for the Glen Canyon Dam’s ability to generate hydroelectricity. A recent water surface measurement recorded a level about 34 feet above the 3,490-foot “minimum power pool” at which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydropower. Previous projections suggested that the water level could fall that low as soon as August 2026. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) handles data for the lake and river system. There are wider potential implications of the ongoing drought. Current management involves releases from other reservoirs. 

     Newsweek’s Joe Edwards has been following the story and reports:

“The wider stakes extend well beyond the reservoir. The drought-stricken Colorado River provides municipal water to about 40 million people, supports more than 8 billion kilowatt-hours of hydropower a year—enough for about 700,000 homes—and sustains 5.5 million acres of farmland, according to USBR.”

     A second concern with the situation is the possibility of future restrictions on downstream water use.

“Glen Canyon Powerplant has eight generators with a total capacity of 1,320,000 kilowatts, according to USBR. As Lake Powell drops, the dam also loses hydraulic “head,” reducing the efficiency of power production even before turbines are fully shut off, according to reporting from the Lake Powell Chronicle.”

     In April, federal water managers issued emergency actions to shore up Lake Powell, moving water from the upstream Flaming Gorge reservoir and reducing releases to Lake Mead, amid record-low snowpack and deepening drought on the Colorado River. Releases to Lake Mead are important for residents, farmers, and customers downstream in Arizona, Nevada, and California. The reduced snowpack and prolonged drought have led to Colorado River levels at 36% of capacity. Edwards continues:

“The agency said in April it intended to add up to about 2.48 million acre-feet to Lake Powell by releasing 660,000 acre-feet to 1 million acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir and reducing Lake Powell’s annual release to Lake Mead from 7.48 million acre-feet to 6 million acre-feet through September 2026.”

“But USBR also acknowledged the trade-off: reduced releases from Lake Powell would “accelerate the downstream decline of Lake Mead,” with the potential for up to an additional 40 percent reduction in Hoover Dam hydropower generating capacity as early as this fall, it said.

     The emergency releases and withholdings issued are expected to raise Lake Powell’s water level by 54 feet to at least 3500 ft elevation by April 2027. The Flaming Gorge Reservoir was 83% full in April and is expected to drop to 59% full by next April.

     He cites a 2024 study published in Communications Earth & Environment that concluded that agriculture is responsible for 74% of all human uses of the river water and 52% of total water use. It also found that cattle-feed crops like alfalfa were responsible for 46% of the river’s direct water use. It will not be able to sustain that usage level, and some of those crops and nut orchards may have to be abandoned. 

     Recreation and tourism around the lake are likely to be affected as well. Local officials noted media headlines leading to cancellations. According to Bob Hembree of the Lake Powell Chronicle:

"The national media... has done nothing but put out sensational headlines saying there’s no water in Lake Powell, we’re going dead pool, all of the above," Franz said. She noted that these reports have a direct economic cost, mentioning that she had already heard from a business that "had four cancellations because of a headline back East."

     Hydroelectric output of the Glen Canyon Dam has long been decreasing. It used to power 40% of the nearby city of Page, but now provides only 20%, and power costs have increased.

     Current constraints on Lake Powell and the Colorado River Basin water supply are given below.

     Seven Western states and parts of Mexico share the greater Colorado River basin and must share the water resource. Thus, there will be continuing discussions in the future about how to manage it. The Dept of the Interior has indicated that it will manage the basin rather than have the states do it. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum met with Governors for the seven basin states, Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, and their designees in April to discuss the concerning hydrology and plans for operations. He noted then:

“Interior and Reclamation continue to coordinate with the basin states, tribes, Mexico and basin stakeholders as we make the decisions necessary to operate and protect the system.”

Assistant Secretary - Water and Science, Andrea Travnicek, noted:

“As we weigh current conditions and prepare for future operations by working with states, tribal nations and stakeholders, the Department of the Interior and Reclamation remain fully committed to taking the actions necessary to reduce impacts on water deliveries, safeguard critical infrastructure, and preserve as much operational flexibility as possible.”  

 

References:

 

Lake Powell nears "dead power pool"—what it means for millions of Americans. Joe Edwards. Newsweek. July 14, 2026. Lake Powell nears "dead power pool"—what it means for millions of Americans

Reclamation Acts to Protect Colorado River System During Historic Drought: The prolonged drought combined with the lowest winter snowpack on record is requiring swift actions to protect this vital water system. Bureau of Reclamation. April 17, 2026. Reclamation Acts to Protect Colorado River System During Historic Drought

The Great Shuffle: Emergency Water Moves Aim to Save Glen Canyon Power. Bob Hembree. Lake Powell Chronical. July 16, 2026. The Great Shuffle: Emergency Water Moves Aim to Save Glen Canyon Power - Lake Powell Chronicle

Lake Powell Water Level Crisis Sparks Emergency Response. Joe Edwards. Newsweek. April 18, 2026. Lake Powell water level crisis sparks emergency response - Newsweek

The Spaceship Earth Metaphor of Resource Distribution is Outdated: A More Expansive and Dynamic Approach is Needed

     I wrote about ecological metaphors in my 2021 book, Sensible Decarbonization. One metaphor that I covered was the Spaceship Earth metaphor, where the Earth, or biosphere, is considered to be a closed system with limited, finite resources. While that is true in some sense, it is also true that the limits of resource availability change based on costs and technology. New and cheaper ways of finding and developing resources make them more available than before. While total resources are indeed finite, technically and economically recoverable resources change via technology and cost-reductions, respectively. I wrote in my book:

     Another metaphor is that of the Spaceship Earth, which suggests the biosphere is a self-contained system. A systems view is very good as it allows us to look at relationships between components of the system. Earth systems science is often how we evaluate climate science. Visionary R. Buckminster Fuller popularized the idea of spaceship earth in his 1969 book, Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth.  Fuller was contemplating how to solve human problems in his works, in which he developed his conceptions. He tried to balance achieving the benefits of innovation with achieving the benefits of sustainability. Of course, humans are a part of the Earth system. We are not separate from nature, which is where some ideas put us. The Earth system involves many chemical cycles: carbon, nitrogen, etc. Oliver Morton, in his 2015 book on geoengineering, The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World, sees the spaceship Earth metaphor as an unnecessary separation of humans and human well-being from the Earth system. A ship has well-defined limits (the notion of “carrying capacity” came from ocean ships) and a purpose. The limits of the Earth system are much less clear, and any notion of purpose, especially some preordained one, is pure fantasy. Morton writes:

“The question is not how to ‘save the planet’ as it was, but how the planet can be remade in a way that works while respecting the rights of people living on it. It is a task that calls for imagination and compromise much more than for naval discipline. It is a task of homemaking, not ship handling.”

     I read Fuller’s book in the 90s, and it was fun and a bit fascinating. He was an interesting guy. Fracking pioneer George Mitchell was a huge fan of Fuller and tried to design his town project with Fuller’s ideas of sustainability and circularity. Fuller did write a little about metaphors, including the following mind-bending quote:

“We are prisoners of our own metaphors, metaphorically speaking.”

     Marian Tupy of HumanProgress.org wrote an essay in 2023 criticizing the spaceship earth metaphor based on David Deutsch’s book ‘The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World,’ which offered a detailed critique of the metaphor.

     Deutsch’s book challenges the closed-system assumption of the metaphor, citing human creativity and ingenuity as a way to exceed resource limitations. Notions of mining the moon or asteroids for materials would expand the system beyond the Earth itself.

     Deutsch cited water scarcity as being overcome by desalination technology, which can remove that scarcity where applicable by tapping resources that were previously seen as untappable.

     He cites knowledge and creativity as the means to overcome limitations and as the key drivers of human progress. Deutsch uses the example of the Green Revolution in agriculture as one way humans overcame limitations of food production to vastly improve the availability of food globally. One could also cite the development of synthetic fertilizers via the Fischer-Tropsch process. Humans excel at solving problems and making processes more efficient and economical. Another example he gives of the power of knowledge and creativity to overcome limitations is medical advancements, which enable people to live healthier and longer lives.

     Deutsch also argued that sustainability by itself is not adequate, and as noted, Fuller sought to balance it with innovation, and he does as well.

“Deutsch argues that a focus solely on sustainability is limiting. He contends that progress and growth are driven by the pursuit of new ideas, the development of knowledge, and the continuous improvement of explanations.”

     Deutsch also advocates for a pro-growth mindset as an important motivation for innovation.

“Deutsch suggests that a pro-growth mindset encourages the exploration and development of new technologies, enabling continuous improvements and expanding the possibilities for human progress.”

     Deutsch also argues that the spaceship earth metaphor is more easily associated with a pessimistic outlook, hence its adoption by catastrophists. There are even darker metaphors related to spaceship earth, such as ecologist Garrett Hardin’s idea of lifeboat ethics, a metaphor that says there is no room on the boat to help more than the boat will hold. This idea was used to argue against helping the poorest people in the world, the ones most in need of help. Deutsch suggests that an optimistic outlook can be fostered by expectations of harnessing the power of knowledge and creativity. He presents space exploration as an example of an optimistic pursuit. Being pessimistic would entail less likelihood of venturing into space at all.

“Deutsch argues that optimism fuels the pursuit of ambitious goals and drives innovation, leading to significant advancements in science and technology.”

     He favors innovation and technology rather than conservation and limits as the best means to solve environmental and resource scarcity problems. He cites strides in clean energy development as an example where innovation is having positive environmental impacts.  

     Deutsche highlights human exceptionalism, how our ability to control our environments, in detail, is unparalleled.

     Tupy offers an apt summary of Deutsch’s ideas:

“In summary, David Deutsch’s criticism of the concept of Spaceship Earth in The Beginning of Infinity challenges the prevailing view that Earth is a closed system with limited resources. Through a range of examples, including asteroid mining, water desalination, the green revolution, medical advancements, clean energy technologies, space exploration, and the eradication of smallpox, Deutsch emphasizes the potential for resource expansion, the transformative power of knowledge and creativity, the importance of a pro-growth mindset, the benefits of optimism, and the capacity for humans to address environmental challenges through sustainable solutions. By employing these examples, Deutsch invites readers to reconsider the limiting assumptions of the Spaceship Earth concept and embrace a more expansive and optimistic perspective on human potential and progress.”

 

   

 

References:

 

Reconsidering Spaceship Earth: The power of human knowledge and technology outweighs the supposed limitations of Earth's resources. Marian L. Tupy.  July 19, 2023. Reconsidering Spaceship Earth - Human Progress

Sensible Decarbonization. Regulation, Risk, and Relative Benefits in Different Approaches to Energy Use, Climate Policy, and Environmental Impact. Kent C. Stewart. Amazon Publishing. 2021.