Cultivating Heat: Part 5: High Enthalpy Geothermal (>250 deg C) and The Potential of Supercritical Geothermal

   

     Hot, deep, pressured, and challenging are four words that can describe supercritical geothermal energy development. New heat records have recently been noted for drilling into hot rocks in high-enthalpy geothermal, which refers to rocks that exceed 250 deg Celsius. Rocks as high as 400 deg C have been drilled into successfully.

     Company Mazama touted its drilling project into the Newberry Volcano in Oregon as the hottest in the world, but projects in Iceland and now Utah are even hotter. Mazama’s project is thus far the hottest EGS project involving hydraulic fracturing of dry hot rock. Mazama plans two wells in 2026, and they think they can drill into and transport proppant at 400 deg C, which is the plan for this year.

     At a temperature of 374 deg C, water becomes supercritical, changing its form, giving it more energy per unit of mass, and improving economics. At these temperatures, 40MW per well pair is achievable, and up to 50MW per well pair is possible. Mazama’s first power production pilot is planned to be a 15MW power plant. For EGS projects in supercritical temperatures, fracking is more of a challenge than drilling. This is because during drilling, the drilling fluid or mud is pumped from the surface, where it is cool and it cools when it returns to the surface. The fluids can be cooled by about 200 deg C, which makes drilling more doable. These hot projects utilize stainless steel frac equipment, which is slightly more expensive but not overly so.

     The Mazama project in Oregon is using 9-5/8” casing, which allows higher flow rates than the more common 7” casing wells. Bigger casing is heavier and requires bigger rigs to drill, but is manageable. Pressures in these wells can be very high, some as high as 18,000 psi. Pressure, like temperature, increases on a regional gradient with depth. Most wells in the U.S. West are expected to be at about 4000 meters or 12,000 feet in vertical depth. Flow control technology is used to prevent thermal short circuiting (TSC). This includes the use of sliding sleeves made out of the same material as the casing,  carbon steel. Corrosion-resistant alloys and titanium could also be used. These are more expensive but do not affect the total well cost too much.

     In a recent Enverus webinar presented by Blake Wood with questions and input from Enverus’s Graham Bain, it was noted that Wood thinks existing drilling and frac tools could work at up to 600 deg C. Work is underway to build sensors that can withstand 900 deg C. Comparing hydraulic fracturing of supercritical geothermal wells to shale wells, it was noted that geothermal wells drilled into granite are common and that granite is brittle and fracks as well as shale and sometimes even better. However, failing downhole components and transporting proppant further out from the wellbore remain significant challenges. The current process is to drill the first well and frack it while monitoring the frac with a second well to determine where frac swarms go, and then drill the second well into the frac swarms. In the future, simultaneous hydraulic fracturing can improve economics as it has with shale wells.

     Water loss is a big concern for EGS. This refers to drilling fluids that are lost into the formation during drilling. Lowering reservoir pressure can lower water loss to the goal of <1%. For EGS, where there is no existing hydrothermal system and existing natural fracture network, water loss should be less than in places where there is.

     He mentions a project in Utah, very close to Fervo’s project, in collaboration with the DOE, which is also near a conventional power plant. He notes that LCOE for the new project in Utah is expected to be about $52 per MWh for a first-of-a-kind project. Fervo is at $91 per MWh with PPAs at over $100 per MWh. The company whose name I missed from the webinar, and I can’t seem to find online, is talking to potential buyers and working on PPAs. These projects, as well as those of Quaise Energy, which I will address later in this post, will get results on flow rates and power outputs in about 18 months. He suggests that in the coming years, more supercritical EGS projects will be developed in places like Japan and the EU, possibly Germany. More research and data acquisition are needed, including a fiber optic system that can withstand 400 deg C and last for ten years.

     He notes that drilling and stimulation costs are about the same for wells, but the highest cost part of these projects is by far building the power plants. He also notes that there is a bottleneck in turbine production due to the need for customized turbines and that this is not related to the existing bottleneck on gas turbines.

     Single-point of entry with frac sleeves can control frac directions better than plug-and-perf, as is used in the oil & gas industry. Frac stage spacing = 12-13 meters (36-39 feet), which is significantly closer than stage spacing in oil & gas, which is on the order of 100-250 feet. This increases frac cost but is acknowledged as a need.

 

Quaise Energy Successfully Tests Its Millimeter Wave Drilling Technology

     Quaise Energy is developing a new kind of drilling into hot rocks via its millimeter wave technology, which vitrifies the rock as it drills, theoretically making that vitrified rock into a de facto casing for the well. It utilizes a device known as a gyrotron that produces energy waves similar to microwaves and lasers, but on a different part of the spectrum. The company successfully tested its drilling technology recently in Texas.

     According to the MIT Energy Initiative:

“Quaise Energy, an MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) spinout developing geothermal energy, hosted the first of several live public demonstrations of their drilling technology this September at Marble Falls, TX. The company proved their technology can drill into the granite outcrop in a quarry with pure energy instead of physical drilling bits.”  

“In July, Quaise successfully drilled a 118-meter hole in the field—outside of what was previously controlled experimental conditions. The September demonstration showed that they can drill through some of the hardest rock in the world at a rate of up to five meters per hour. According to Henry Phan, the vice president of engineering at Quaise, today’s commercial operations’ average drilling rate is a tenth of a meter per hour through granite.”

     In its demonstrations, the company proved that it could vaporize rock using high-frequency electromagnetic waves, drilling 387 feet (118 meters) into solid granite without any physical contact. The next goal for the months ahead is to drill deeper and faster.

     Quaise is also working on Project Obsidian, also near the Newberry Volcano in Oregon, where depths to hot rock are shallow. According to Power Magazine’s Darrel Proctor:

“Geoffrey Garrison, vice president of Operations at Quaise Energy, said his company “is actively developing Project Obsidian in Oregon, the world’s first superhot geothermal power plant. The area has been continuously studied for decades, with superhot geothermal temperatures relatively close to the surface. Project Obsidian is currently undergoing several phases of construction and development before moving into power plant construction and operation. We expect the facility to be fully operational and generating power [eventual output would be 250 MW] for the local grid by 2030.”

     According to the webinar, Quaise’s technology is fascinating but may not be needed if other methods can tap hot rock. However, in order to drill into even hotter rock, say 450-1000 deg C, current rotary drilling will not suffice.  

  

 

 

References:

 

Supercritical Geothermal: Drilling Into the Hottest Rock on Earth: Innovation Underground – Webinar by Enverus. April 1, 2026.

MITEI spinout Quaise Energy successfully demonstrates their geothermal energy drilling technology in the field: Company’s technology could unlock clean, renewable geothermal energy using pure energy. Kelley Travers. MIT Energy Initiative.  November 3, 2025. MITEI spinout Quaise Energy successfully demonstrates their geothermal energy drilling technology in the field | MIT Energy Initiative

US firm’s record-breaking drill taps granite 387 feet deep to unlock geothermal power: The live demo showcased the first field use of this non-contact drilling method. Georgina Jedikovska. Interesting Engineering. September 18, 2025. US firm drills record 387 feet into granite with millimeter wave system

Geothermal energy turns red hot: MIT Energy Initiative symposium maps path to tap the planet’s heat-rich rocks for clean power at scale. MIT Energy Initiative. Leda Zimmerman. March 26, 2026. Geothermal energy turns red hot | MIT Energy Initiative

Geothermal’s Rise a Hot Topic Worldwide. Darrell Proctor. Power Magazine. April 1, 2026. Geothermal's Rise a Hot Topic Worldwide

Generation and Distribution: Part 9. Quaise Energy March 16, 2026. Generation and Distribution: Part 9 | Quaise Energy

New Paper in GM Crops & Food Suggests Glyphosate in Combination with No-Till Farming is the Single Most Effective Global Tool for Carbon Emissions Reduction, And Other Relative Benefits of Glyphosate

      There has certainly been a lot of debate about the safety of glyphosate, especially since the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified it in 2015 as a “probable human carcinogen,” A new paper published in GM Crops & Food, analyzes the CO2 equivalent emissions reductions that arise from the manufacture, distribution and farm level use of glyphosate as a vital part of conservation tilling, which refers to reduced-till or no-till farming. The paper attempts to quantify the emissions. According to the abstract, those emissions reductions are massive:

“Conservation tillage practices provide a net reduction in combined annual fuel and increased soil carbon retention-related emissions of −179.67 billion kg CO2e relative to a conventional plow-based alternative production system.”

     Glyphosate is typically used to control weeds in preparing land before crops are planted. It is also applied between crop rows and around the perimeters of the crops.

     The paper’s analysis includes an extensive literature review. Methodologies include the quantification of global glyphosate use, calculation of emissions from glyphosate manufacture, distribution, and farm-level use, calculation of emissions reduction from the use of conservation tillage, calculation of the contribution of glyphosate to emissions reduction from the use of conservation tillage, and comparisons to conventional crops and genetically modified herbicide-tolerant (GM HT) crops. The paper explains some of the aims of the literature review:

“A primary aim of the literature review was to identify the evidence about emissions after adoption of conservation tillage practices, soil organic carbon levels and other possible emissions such as nitrous oxide (N2O) relative to conventional tillage practices.”

     The literature review explored duration of studies, depth of soil carbon measurements, soil types, latitude and climate differences, interaction of conservation tillage with other conservation management practices, continuity of conservation tillage, and the combined effect of temperature, moisture, and soil texture on soil carbon.

     Table 1 shows the different tillage practices and how they are defined. These include conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT), and no tillage (NT. In addition, mulching and crop rotations are typically used in CT and RT. CT and RT make up conservation tillage (COT).

     Table 2 quantifies fuel use for CT, RT, and NT.

     Table 3 shows glyphosate use by country, and that the U.S. and Brazil, two of the world’s agricultural powerhouses, use the most glyphosate.

     Table 4 shows the annual average glyphosate use for 2019–2022 by crop/use.

     Table 5 shows the annual average CO2e emissions from the manufacture and distribution of glyphosate used in global agriculture by country of use: baseline 8.39 billion kg.

     Tables 6 and 7 show comparisons of RT and NT with CT in terms of fuel use and soil carbon retention.

     Table 8 notes glyphosate use in stages of crop growth key to the adoption of conservation tillage for 2019-2022, and Table 9 breaks that information down by country.

     Table 10 compares NT/RT-based conservation tillage area compared to levels if the same area was tilled by plough, attributable to glyphosate, by country.

     Table 11 compares annual global soil carbon retention CO2e emissions for NT-based conservation tillage area compared to levels if the same area was tilled by plough, attributable to glyphosate, by country.

     Table 12 is a summary of global annual CO2e emissions/storage attributable to the use of glyphosate in agriculture: 2019–2022 annual average.

     The paper goes on to describe applying sensitivity analysis to arrive at the final estimates.

 

The Environmental Benefits of Glyphosate

     Dan Blaustein-Rejto, writing for the Ecomodernist, explores the environmental benefits of glyphosate. He recounts public opposition to glyphosate due to perceived health impacts, soil health impacts, pollinator impacts, water contamination, and degradation of biodiversity. He argues that the net impacts of glyphosate are beneficial due to it replacing other, more toxic herbicides and “enabling farming practices that reduce soil erosion, water and air pollution, energy use, and crop losses.”

     He explains that glyphosate is mostly used for animal feed, biofuel, and fiber instead of human consumption:

“Glyphosate was first approved and marketed in the United States in 1974 as a broad-spectrum herbicide designed to kill most plants it contacts. Its rise coincided with the commercialization of genetically engineered glyphosate-tolerant (“Roundup Ready”) crops beginning in the mid-1990s. Today, glyphosate is primarily used on corn, soybean, and cotton operations, applied to roughly 80–90% of those crops’ acreages. These crops—which are overwhelmingly grown for animal feed, biofuel, and fiber rather than direct human consumption—account for the vast majority of all agricultural glyphosate usage, about 84%.”

     He emphasizes glyphosate’s low toxicity compared to other herbicides:

“By almost any measure, glyphosate and glyphosate-based herbicides (which contain other substances such as surfactants) have a low toxicity even at the high volumes used.”

     He also notes that glyphosate is not environmentally harmless:

“Ecological risk assessments from EPA and other regulatory agencies identify real concerns in some contexts. Chronic glyphosate exposure may slow growth of some birds. But one of the most concrete risks is not from glyphosate itself, but from surfactants that are mixed into some formulations to help it better penetrate plant leaves: EPA finds that drift from heavy aerial application of formulations with polyethoxylated tallow amine (POEA) carry a slight risk to some freshwater fish, amphibians, and aquatic invertebrates. Likewise, some formulations may increase the impact of acute exposure to birds, though the evidence on this is limited.”

     The graph below compares glyphosate to other herbicides.

     As the paper explored above notes, one of glyphosate’s most important environmental benefits is in herbicide-enabled no-till farming. He notes that once glyphosate-tolerant (GT) crops were developed, conservation tillage was enabled to grow successfully. Avoiding tillage has several other benefits, such as less fuel use, reducing soil erosion, soil moisture retention, preservation of soil structure, and much more.  

“Though often overlooked, conservation tillage also reduces the amount of dirt and dust from farming, significantly improving air quality.”

     One practice that has been particularly vilified is the pre-harvest spraying of glyphosate on wheat and some legumes. RFK Jr. and other MAHA advocates have recommended banning this practice. Blaustein-Rejto points out that this practice is uncommon, considered safe, and has unique environmental benefits. The practice is rare, being used on only about 3% of wheat. Measured residues were still small for these crops.

“Even in an implausibly extreme scenario where a child ate only wheat products made from grain that was sprayed pre-harvest and had the maximum legal glyphosate residues persist on it through processing, they would need to eat more than 1 ½ loaves of bread or 15 cups of pasta per day to reach EPA’s daily safety limit. That threshold is itself quite conservative, set 100 times below the highest dose that caused no harm in relevant animal studies.”

     Pre-harvest spraying can keep weeds down for subsequent crops, help spare land, and increase yields.

“Grain dryers burn large amounts of propane or natural gas to reduce moisture levels. Finally, when compared to other chemical desiccants, glyphosate is often one of the lowest-impact options available.”

     Glyphosate is certainly not the perfect herbicide, but it is much more beneficial than other herbicides, including some organic ones. Even better alternatives should continue to be pursued.

     He also touts new technologies:

“Precision application technologies that use computer vision and machine learning to identify and spray individual weeds can reduce herbicide use by about 30–60%, and up to 90 percent in some cropping systems and studies. Autonomous robotic weeders are beginning to scale beyond specialty crops and into row-crop agriculture. Recent proposals in Congress to increase support for farmers to purchase precision agriculture equipment could go a long way to accelerating adoption. But development of new pesticides, both synthetic and biological, as well as herbicide-tolerant genetically engineered crops remains critical for farmers to better manage weeds, especially ones that are resistant to existing herbicides.”

     Regulatory support for residue analysis is also important:

“USDA and FDA should expand routine monitoring for glyphosate and other herbicide residues and report results clearly. This is not because more evidence would necessarily identify new risks, but rather because public trust depends on visibility and accountability.”

     Finally, he summarizes the benefits of glyphosate:

“Glyphosate illustrates the environmental promise and tradeoffs of agricultural innovation. It helped enable meaningful reductions in tillage, fuel use, and herbicide toxicity. It also carries ecological risks that warrant continued research, scrutiny, and management. For policymakers, the key question is not whether glyphosate is flawless, but rather how to encourage its responsible use and develop alternatives that deliver better environmental outcomes. That requires rigorous oversight, transparent monitoring, and federal support for innovation instead of bans that replace one set of impacts with more damaging ones.”

 

Trump Executive Order Calls Glyphosate “Central to American Economic and National Security” and Calls for Adequate Supply

     In a break from RFK Jr. and anti-GMO activists, an executive order was announced that calls glyphosate necessary for the American economy and national security, and calls for maintaining an adequate supply. RFK Jr. relented and praised the EO. 

   

 

References:

 

Glyphosate use in agricultural production: it’s contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions. Graham Brookes. GM Crops & Food: Biotechnology in Agriculture and the Food Chain. Volume 17, 2026 - Issue 1. Full article: Glyphosate use in agricultural production: it’s contribution to global carbon dioxide emissions

What to know about glyphosate, the herbicide behind a Trump executive order that’s angered MAHA moms. Michal Ruprecht, CNN. February 24, 2026. What to know about glyphosate, the herbicide behind a Trump executive order that’s angered MAHA moms

Glyphosate’s Environmental Benefits: How the controversial herbicide saves wildlife and where it still falls short. Dan Blaustein-Rejto. The Ecomodernist. March 13, 2026. Glyphosate’s Environmental Benefits - The Ecomodernist

Japanese Funded U.S. Government-Owned Massive Natural Gas Power Plant Planned in Southern Ohio Could Be Largest in the World at 9.2 GW: Will Power Data Centers and More

     A massive 9.2 GW natural gas power plant slated to be built in Southern Ohio near Piketon on the large site of the former gaseous diffusion plant and uranium enrichment facility could be the largest in the world. The plant, funded by Japan and to be owned by the U.S. government, is expected to cost $33 billion. The PORTS Technology Campus project will be funded by Japan, but will not be particularly beneficial to Japan. It has been reported that the investment is more of a political ploy for Japan to get in Trump’s good graces, strange as that sounds. Japan also has strong defense ties and a large tariff deal with the U.S. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

“The project stems from the Japanese government’s pledge last year to invest $550 billion in the U.S. to prevent President Donald Trump from hiking trade tariffs on imported Japanese products.”

     The site will also house the world’s most powerful AI data center. It is expected to be the first power plant to be owned by the federal government in decades.

     Power from the plant is expected to be transported via a planned $4.2 billion transmission line project to a nearby proposed $30 billion data center, built and run by SoftBank. A summary of the numbers by The Columbus Dispatch is below.

“The data center, which is slated to begin initial operation in 2028, will house more artificial intelligence capacity than all current AI systems put together worldwide, according to SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.”

     That is a pretty impressive boast. It will be built on a 3700-acre site owned by the U.S. government. SB Energy, a SoftBank subsidiary, will operate the power plant, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

     The Plain Dealer emphasized the unusual nature of the plant. All other power plants owned by the U.S. government are either hydroelectric plants or Tennessee Valley Authority plants. It is one of the very few projects financed by another country and owned by the U.S. Another is the nearly completed $4.4 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge, which will link Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, and is being paid for entirely by the Canadian government. However, the bridge will be jointly owned by Canada and the state of Michigan.

“While profits will be split evenly between the U.S. and Japan until Japan recoups its money, plus interest, the St. Louis Federal Reserve analysis found that the U.S. stands to benefit substantially even at moderate return levels, but “only under implausibly high-return assumptions would Japan break even.”

     A groundbreaking event was hosted at the site on March 26, with many speakers, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Masayoshi Son, Chairman and CEO of SoftBank Group Corp, members of Congress, the CEO of AEP Ohio (also a project partner), and many others.

     There are also planned upgrades to the existing nuclear energy projects on the site. These include $900 million in U.S. Department of Energy funding for Centrus Energy Corp. to expand its uranium enrichment operations; and an agreement between Oklo Inc. and Meta Platforms, Inc. Oklo will develop an advanced nuclear small modular reactor power project to provide up to 1.2 GW of electricity dedicated to Meta’s data centers in the region.

     According to Ohio University, before the groundbreaking:

“SB Energy announced an initial investment of over $37 billion, combining a $33 billion 10 GW power plant with $4.2 billion in AEP Ohio grid upgrades to support a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) data center. The investment for the AI data center to be built by SB Energy has not yet been disclosed { I think they said $30 billion} but it will create a hub for innovation that accelerates research and scientific discovery by dedicating this massive AI data center to cutting-edge research in quantum computing, fusion energy and national security.”

     This is truly a massive project that will cost a massive amount of money, expected to be at least $67.2 billion. 

     The project will also take advantage of the Appalachian Basin's inexpensive natural gas, utilizing as much as 1.2 BCF per day, which is quite a lot of gas. 

 

   

References:

 

US government to own massive Japanese-funded power plant in Southern Ohio. Jeremy Pelzer. Cleveland Plain Dealer. April 2, 2026. US government to own massive Japanese-funded power plant in Southern Ohio

Ohio's $33 billion power plant is massive. Here's a by-the-numbers look at Piketon facility. Dean Narciso. Columbus Dispatch. April 5, 2026. Ohio's $33 billion power plant is massive. Here's a by-the-numbers look at Piketon facility

PORTSfuture groundwork continues to pay off with job growth at Pike County plant. Ohio Today. Ohio University. March 17, 2026. PORTSfuture groundwork continues to pay off with job growth at Pike County plant

Submersible and Floating Hydroelectric Technology for the Rivers Flowing into the Great Lakes

     Stephen Starr of The Guardian just published an interesting article about new hydroelectric technologies being deployed in the Great Lakes region, mostly in Canada. The Great Lakes host big cities in the U.S. and Canada, including Chicago, Toronto, Montreal, Milwaukee, and Detroit. These populated cities are experiencing growing power demands as well as demands for clean energy and less air pollution. The Great Lakes are freshwater lakes with no tidal power, but they do have reliably flowing rivers that connect them. Company Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC), which has long operated small submersible hydroelectric power generators in Alaska and Maine, has recently been developing two hydroelectric power generators on the St. Lawrence River in Montreal.

“The St Lawrence River is one of the best opportunities in North America for our technology because it has consistent, high-velocity water for hundreds of miles. In the Montreal area, there’s 60-90 megawatts of resource potential alone,” says ORPC’s chief executive officer, Stuart Davies.

“The Niagara River, the St Lawrence River are big powerful rivers driven by the hydrology of the lakes draining out.”

     It should be pointed out that ORPC’s devices are small-scale, from 0.5MW to 5 MW in size, hardly a replacement for a gas or coal plant, but they do provide similar baseload power.

     ORPC has been producing hydropower in Alaska since 2019, providing power for a small community and reducing their diesel fuel requirements and costs.

      Another company, Orbital Marine Power, which has developed tidal power offshore Scotland, is developing a hydropower project in the Bay of Fundy’s Minas Passage in Nova Scotia. They also plan to develop a project later this year on the Niagara River in Buffalo, New York.

     The Guardian article notes that Canada has a better and faster regulatory environment for licensing hydroelectric power than the U.S., where it can take eight years or more to license a project. Canadian citizens also benefit from low-cost, low-emissions hydropower.

     While the St. Lawrence and Niagara rivers are fast-moving, other rivers connecting the Great Lakes are slower-moving, with currents of 2.3 to 2.5 knots. Michael Bernitsas, a professor at the University of Michigan, has tested a hydroelectricity-generating technology called Vivace that can harness hydro energy from water that moves as slowly as half a meter per second. One area targeted for testing this technology in the future is where Lake Huron flows into the St. Clair River, about 50 miles north of Detroit.

“As water moves, it pushes cylinders which oscillate up and down on the device, generating kinetic energy. Bernitsas says the devices can be manufactured in sizes starting from under a meter in width and height to a scale suitable for larger projects.”

“The immediate market for our small technology would be portable applications in situ in the ocean, for example powering Noaa buoys,” he says.

     He estimates that it will take another two years before the technology is deployable. These technologies can also be deployed in oceans to tap tides, but saltwater is much more corrosive, and river water deployments can last much longer. Michael Bernitsas, a professor at the University of Michigan, has tested a hydroelectricity-generating technology called Vivace that can harness hydro energy from water that moves as slowly as half a meter per second.

     ORPC is also exploring anchoring to riverbed bottoms as has been done in Northern European tidal power projects, in order to eliminate problems due to surface ice in the winter. The company is also planning a project on the lower Mississippi River, potentially between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, for late next year.

     ORPC also notes that its projects are fish-safe, not resulting in killing and maiming fish as has been a problem at larger hydroelectric dams.

          Compared to wind and solar in the U.S., hydro is poised for further development since it retains its 40-50% tax credit. That will likely result in more of these types of hydro projects being developed.

 

References:

 

Demand for hydropower surges as Trump clamps down on clean energy: Home to one of the world’s largest deposits of freshwater, the Great Lakes region will soon host next-generation generators – just as prices are being hiked across the US. Stephen Starr. The Guardian. March 31, 2026. Demand for hydropower surges as Trump clamps down on clean energy | US news | The Guardian

RivGen® Power System & Integrated Microgrid Solutions. Ocean Renewable Power Company (ORPC). RivGen® Power System & Integrated Microgrid Solutions - ORPC

Orbital Marine Power. Technology - Orbital Marine

Vortex Hydro Energy. How it Works | Vortex Hydro Energy

U.S. Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Generation Hit a Record 17% Share (19% if Smaller Deployments are Included) in 2025 Despite Solar Deployments Dropping by 22%

      Utility-scale solar and wind have reached a new record as generation share on the U.S. grid, hitting 17% in 2025. The EIA defines utility-scale as facilities that produce 1MW or greater. If smaller deployments such as rooftop solar are included, then the share rises to 19%. That is quite an accomplishment. In comparison, the EU, which does not have the domestic supply of oil & gas that the U.S. has, is at 30% share for utility-scale wind and solar. The EU's stronger push for renewables has come at a cost, and electricity prices continue to be the highest where renewables penetration is highest - Germany and California, for example.

     From the EIA graph below, it can be seen that utility-scale solar and wind doubled their share on the grid from 2018 to 2024 from 8% to 16%. The increase in grid share has been steady over the past two decades.  Before that, it was virtually non-existent. Two decades ago, in 2005, the grid share was less than 1%. Based on recent trends, with continuing efforts, one might project that the grid share for wind and solar is increasing by 9% over 7 years. That means 26% in 2032 and 35% in 2039. That is, of course, less than the Biden administration was hoping for, but still quite impressive.

     The EIA also notes that wind and solar generation are intermittent and that dispatchable generation in the form of coal, natural gas, nuclear, oil, and presumably hydro are at a share of 75% of utility-scale generation for 2025. It was also noted that wind generated more power at 464,000 GWh than solar at 296,000 GWh, although solar capacity saw a larger increase, rising 34% compared to wind’s 3%. However, new solar generation in 2025 was at 26.5 GW, down 22% from 2024, which was at 33.8 GW.

     According to an annual report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), fourth quarter deployments dropped considerably, with expectations that many of those projects will add to 2026 and 2027 numbers:

“SEIA noted that in the first three quarters of 2025, solar installations remained largely the same year over year, “but in the fourth quarter, volumes fell by nearly 40% year-over-year. By the end of 2025, installations totaled just under 35 GW as many utility-scale projects were delayed into 2026 and 2027.”

“As developers shifted their focus towards safe harbor strategies, there was less urgency to bring late-stage projects online by year end,” SEIA said. “This weakened fourth quarter deployment but created a more robust near-term pipeline for 2026 and 2027.”

     SEIA and Wood Mackenzie think that solar capacity will triple over the next decade, a similar growth rate to what has been occurring. More graphic data from the report is given below.

 

    

 

References:

 

Utility-scale solar and wind hit a record 17% of US generation in 2025: EIA: “Combining utility-scale and small-scale solar generation in 2025 increases the share of wind and solar to 19% of total net generation,” said the Energy Information Administration. Diane DiGangi. Utility Dive. March 25, 2026. Utility-scale solar and wind hit a record 17% of US generation in 2025: EIA | Utility Dive

Solar installations fell 22% in 2025: FERC: “As developers shifted their focus towards safe harbor strategies, there was less urgency to bring late-stage projects online by year end,” the Solar Energy Industries Association said. Diana DiGangi. Utility Dive. April 1, 2026. Solar installations fell 22% in 2025: FERC | Utility Dive

Wind and solar generated a record 17% of U.S. electricity in 2025. Energy Information Administration. March 20, 2026. Wind and solar generated a record 17% of U.S. electricity in 2025 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Solar Market Insight Report 2025 Year in Review. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). March 9, 2026. Solar Market Insight Report 2025 Year in Review – SEIA