Power Grid Transformers Are Still Facing Supply Constraints and Slowing Grid Expansion: Heron Power Will Soon Offer Modular Software-Controlled Transformers for Data Centers

   

     Two big constraints bottlenecking power projects are gas turbine wait times and power transformer wait times. Transformer wait times of four years are common. According to PV Magazine:

“Data from Wood Mackenzie indicates that demand for generator step up transformers increased by 274% between 2019 and 2025. During that same period, demand for substation transformers rose by 116%. The growth is fueled by a massive influx of new load from artificial intelligence data centers as well as the ongoing transition toward electrified transport and industrial manufacturing.”

     Prices for these components have climbed 80% over the past five years. Two strategies have emerged: 1) ordering transformers ahead of project finalization, and 2) using refurbished equipment until new transformers become available.

     The limited availability of grain-oriented electrical steel and copper is a major factor in the transformer supply crunch. Domestic construction of grain-oriented steel is lacking, so much of it needs to be imported.

“In response to the domestic supply gap, manufacturers are ramping up investment in U.S. production facilities. Hitachi Energy recently announced over $1 billion in investment, including a new plant in South Boston scheduled to come online in 2028. Siemens has also increased its manufacturing commitment in North Carolina to $421 million for a transformer factory in Charlotte.”

“Despite these investments, the supply and demand imbalance is expected to persist for years. Large scale data center developers are increasingly looking toward on site power generation to bypass the long queues for grid connections, while utility scale renewable projects face the risk of becoming stranded assets if they cannot secure transformers in time for project completion.”

    Heron Power announced in August that it plans to build a $100 million factory in California to make advanced transformers for the U.S. power grid. The company plans to produce Heron Link, a 5-megawatt medium-voltage power conversion system for large-scale energy and data-center projects. Heron offers an integrated solid-state transformer for data centers.

     Heron’s CEO Drew Baglino is a former Tesla executive. The company has begun building its first factory in California. It plans to begin production in the second half of 2027 and eventually ramp up to 40 gigawatts of capacity, or about 10,000 of its “Heron Link” systems. It will produce a new kind of transformer. According to Latitude Media:

“Heron Power promises to combine multiple pieces of power conversion equipment into a single modular, software-controlled unit for both data centers and solar and battery storage projects looking to get interconnected.”

     Heron is still developing its manufacturing process and testing components. It is doing its first commercial pilot in California where labor costs are higher, but also where more engineers can manage the manufacturing process. They are also doing field testing at data centers and solar sites.  

“Then there’s the actual design differences between solid-state transformers {SSTs} and traditional oil-filled technology. Heron Link promises that its SST has higher energy efficiency, which could translate into greater revenue for renewable energy project owners, or lower electricity costs at a data center.”

“Heron also uses high-frequency silicon-carbide semiconductors to convert power electronically — the costs of which have dropped dramatically thanks to the ramp up of the EV industry, Baglino said. That enables SSTs to be controlled remotely for voltage regulation and load smoothing. By contrast, legacy high-voltage transformers rely on oil to cool copper coils and require in-person maintenance.”

“Ultimately, Heron Power estimates that its system will be 5% to 6% more valuable than alternatives “over the lifespan of a project.”

     In any case, the cost at least looks comparable to the older technology, with added advantages. However, like a lot of renewable energy projects, it is likely to have higher upfront costs.

 

References:

 

Heron Power plans $100 million factory for advanced electric grid equipment. Tim McLaughlin. Reuters, August 13, 2026. Heron Power plans $100 million factory for advanced electric grid equipment

U.S. transformer market faces severe supply constraints: Severe shortages of power transformers are stalling grid expansion as developers face skyrocketing prices and four year wait times for critical equipment. Ryan Kennedy. PV Magazine. May 12, 2026. U.S. transformer market faces severe supply constraints - pv magazine Global

How Heron Power plans to scale first transformer factory to 40 GW: CEO Drew Baglino on the company’s plans to ramp production in the coming years — and combat the U.S. power equipment shortage. Catherine Boudreau. Latitude Media. August 24, 2026. How Heron Power plans to scale first transformer factory to 40 GW | Latitude Media

Heron Power. Website. Heron Power | Built for the grid ahead

 

 

 

Ammonium Nitrate Salt-Based Cooling Systems: The NESCOD System - The Salt Cools as It Dissolves, Can Be Regenerated by Sunlight, and Requires No Electricity

     The International Energy Agency: “Cooling will drive peak electricity demand, especially in hot countries.”

     Robust cooling demand is a pretty sure bet.

     Ammonium nitrate has thermodynamic properties and heat transfer capabilities that make it efficient and cost-effective for cooling systems. An article in Eureka by Patsnap gives some historical context:

“The historical development of ammonium nitrate in cooling applications traces back to early industrial processes where its endothermic dissolution properties were first recognized. This compound demonstrates remarkable heat absorption capacity when dissolved in water, creating a cooling effect that has been systematically studied and refined over decades. The technology has evolved from simple laboratory applications to sophisticated industrial implementations, particularly in sectors requiring precise temperature control and rapid cooling capabilities.”

     The current focus in ammonium nitrate cooling is on increasing efficiency through automated ammonium nitrate concentration management to optimize heat transfer rates. Chemical processing, metallurgy, and specialized manufacturing operations are target industrial applications for the tech. Ammonium nitrate handling and storage risks must also be mitigated. This involves implementing advanced monitoring systems, fail-safe mechanisms, and standardized operational procedures. These cooling systems can also be combined with conventional cooling systems into hybrid systems.

     Demand for industrial cooling continues to grow, including in the data center and semiconductor industries, and in places like Asia where manufacturing is growing.

“Ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) cooling systems currently occupy a niche position within the industrial cooling landscape, primarily utilized in specialized applications where conventional refrigerants face regulatory or performance limitations. The technology leverages NH4NO3's endothermic dissolution properties, where the salt absorbs significant thermal energy when dissolved in water, creating a cooling effect that can reach temperatures as low as -20°C depending on concentration ratios.”

     The article lists some of the key challenges of these systems below:

“Major technical challenges impede widespread adoption of NH4NO3 cooling systems. Corrosion represents the most significant obstacle, as ammonium nitrate solutions exhibit aggressive corrosive behavior toward standard metallic components, necessitating expensive corrosion-resistant materials such as specialized stainless steel alloys or polymer-based heat exchangers. This material requirement substantially increases initial capital costs compared to conventional cooling systems.”

“System efficiency presents another critical challenge. While NH4NO3 solutions provide effective cooling, the energy requirements for solution regeneration and continuous circulation often exceed those of traditional vapor-compression systems. The crystallization tendency of concentrated NH4NO3 solutions at lower temperatures creates operational complications, requiring sophisticated control systems to maintain optimal concentration levels and prevent system blockages.”

     There are also safety and environmental challenges. Ammonium nitrate salts are dangerous, potentially explosive, and have a high oxidizing potential, which makes storage and handling risky. Environmental concerns include nitrogen compound releases and potential groundwater contamination.

     These systems currently have a low penetration rate and are mainly used for backup and in specialized chemical processing industries.

“The technology faces significant competition from established alternatives including ammonia-based systems, CO2 cooling, and advanced vapor-compression technologies that offer better economic profiles and regulatory acceptance.”

     Ammonium nitrate cooling systems are endothermic, which means they are based on chemical reactions that absorb heat, resulting in cooling. They absorb heat when dissolved in water, cooling the water.  

     According to BGR:

“Scientists from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology have discovered a method that does precisely that, using ammonium nitrate to empower efficient cooling. They're calling it Nescod (No Electricity and Sustainable Cooling on Demand).”

     This research was conducted and reported in a paper in the journal Energy & Environmental Science in 2022.

     In the NESCOD system, after the salt dissolves and absorbs heat, connected solar panels can be used to evaporate the water and reprecipitate the salt for reuse. No external electricity is needed. The evaporated water can be collected via solar distillation and recycled back into the cooling system.

“The researchers state, "NESCOD represents a fully renewable energy-driven, green cooling technology without electricity consumption, which is urgently desired in our fight against global warming." It's especially suitable for low-income and off-grid communities, and "has the potential to make a meaningful contribution to achieving universal SDGs by 2030."

     According to an article in Daily Galaxy, the experiments overcame the problem of salt crusts forming on the solar regenerator:

“The regenerator used different areas for absorbing sunlight and forming crystals. Its bottom acted as the light-absorbing surface, while the outer section provided space for evaporation and crystallization.”

“Salt buildup soon became a problem. In early tests, ammonium nitrate formed a dense crust on the regenerator. That layer restricted the movement of fresh solution toward the surface, which slowed evaporation.”

“The researchers changed the setup to reduce the buildup. They added sodium 4-vinylbenzenesulfonate, or SVBS, to alter the way the crystals formed. They also incorporated a PTFE film into part of the device after salt began moving toward areas where it could interfere with incoming sunlight.”

“With the revised design, the researchers recorded an evaporation rate of about 2.2 kilograms of water per square metre per hour. The corresponding rate of salt recovery reached about 4.6 kilograms per square metre per hour under one-sun illumination.”

“That regeneration rate was used to calculate cooling power of up to 191 W/m². The calculation was based on an ambient temperature of 35°C and a final solution temperature of 25°C.”

“The team also collected water during regeneration. Water vapour leaving the salt solution was condensed, and measurements of ion concentration and total organic carbon were below 1 part per million.”

     To summarize, the NESCOD system involves two separate processes: cooling and solar regeneration. They can be in different locations. Solar regeneration can happen on a roof of a building while cooling happens inside the building.

 

 

References:

 

Say goodbye to traditional cooling: This salt-based system is turning heads without using electricity. Arezki Amiri. Daily Galaxy. August 13, 2026. Say goodbye to traditional cooling: This salt-based system is turning heads without using electricity

Conversion and storage of solar energy for cooling. Wenbin Wang, Yusuf Shi, Chenlin Zhang, Renyuan Li, Mengchun Wu, Sifei Zhuo, Sara Aleid, and Peng Wang. Energy & Environmental Science. (2022) 15 (1): 136–145. Conversion and storage of solar energy for cooling† | Energy & Environmental Science | The Royal Society of Chemistry

Not A Fan, Not AC: This Cheap Cooling System Works Without Using Electricity. Briley Kenney. BGR.  April 29, 2026. Not A Fan, Not AC: This Cheap Cooling System Works Without Using Electricity

Ammonium Nitrate in Industrial Cooling Systems: Use Cases. Eureka by Patsnap. March 5, 2026. Ammonium Nitrate in Industrial Cooling Systems: Use Cases

 

 

Capitalism Works When Value is Created Rather Than Extracted, and Management Practices That Benefit Stakeholders Can Help, Fortune Article Argues

      The article in Fortune first notes that Americans’ views about capitalism are not great, with a recent poll showing that only 54% of Americans have a favorable view of capitalism, the lowest amount since tracking began 15 years ago. The authors, Ravi Dhar and Jon Iwata, suggest this is because more Americans see capitalism as extracting value rather than creating it. They call this a zero-sum view of corporations. Of course, the growing wealth of the already super-wealthy is likely one reason for this. I think that the level of unfairness perceived in growing income inequality tends to make us cynical, and capitalism is an easy target. However, they also note that:

“…the more than 200 CEOs we have interviewed over six years through Yale’s Program on Stakeholder Innovation and Management reject this zero-sum view. Their reasons, however, may not be what most people assume. They see creating value for customers, employees, partners and communities not as an alternative to shareholder value, but as essential to creating it over the long term.”

     This suggests that CEOs are indeed working to improve the tarnished reputation of capitalism by stressing stakeholder concerns, instead of focusing only on shareholder returns. The CEOs did admit that making a full stakeholder form of capitalism work is challenging, and they sometimes struggle to find the best ways to do it. The article explores three examples of stakeholder capitalism that have worked.

 

Example 1 Walmart: Design the enterprise around the interdependencies that create value.

     The first example is Walmart, one of the biggest companies in the U.S. The article notes that when Doug McMillon became Walmart’s CEO in 2014, store sales were in decline amid competition from Amazon and other online retailers, employee turnover was high, and its reputation as an employer was not great. Its share price had also been stagnating. In response, they worked on improving their own online retailing capabilities, employee satisfaction, and supplier optimization to keep prices low. Technology improved forecasting, inventory, and store operations. The new approach required big investments and sacrificing near-term profits, but it paid off.   

“In February 2026, Walmart became the first traditional retailer to exceed $1 trillion in market value. Comparable-store sales, which had been falling, recovered and then compounded. In 2024, Walmart appeared for the first time on Fortune’s list of the 100 Best Companies to Work For.”

“McMillon later described the management approach: “Over time, designing a business that  benefits all stakeholders is the best way to provide returns to shareholders.”

 

Example 2 Starbucks: Test management decisions against the value they create—and for whom.

     Brian Niccol became Starbucks’ CEO in September 2024. The company had previously removed amenities like condiments and other amenities, expanded its menu, and began charging extra for non-dairy milk. This, they say, led to degrading the customer experience and burdened the baristas. As in the Walmart case, the initial and near-term results were a loss of revenue.

“When Brian Niccol became CEO in September 2024, he saw these choices as symptoms of a company that had drifted from what made it distinctive, so he reversed course. Starbucks restored condiment bars, ceramic mugs and comfortable seating, and eliminated the non-dairy surcharge, even as customization had grown into a business generating more than $1 billion annually. The surcharge change alone reduced North American operating margin by about 60 basis points in its first quarter—a meaningful near-term financial cost.”

     Niccol made other changes, including simplifying the menu and store operations, and adding more staff. These changes reduced stress on employees and improved customer experiences.

“The early results are encouraging. Starbucks has reported four consecutive quarters of comparable-sales growth, with global comparable sales up 7.9% in its latest quarter. Since  Niccol took charge, its shares have risen more than 22%.”  

 

Example 3 Rio Tinto: Manage intangible sources of value with the same rigor as tangible ones.

     The third example involves global mining giant Rio Tinto and its work toward the moniker “social license to operate.” In 2020, the backlash from destroying 46,000-year-old rock shelters in indigenous lands in Australia resulted in several senior executives leaving the company, including the CEO. New CEO Jakob Stausholm immediately focused on restoring trust with the public and relevant stakeholders.

“Rio invested in community engagement, cultural-heritage expertise and the governance that supports both. Over the five years through 2025, Rio generated a 66% total shareholder return. Sustaining that kind of value creation requires managing not only the assets on its balance sheet, but the intangible capabilities that allow those assets to be developed.”

     The authors argue that a similar public trust issue has developed with backlash against AI data centers. Creating value, they suggest, is more than just producing a useful product.

“Customer trust and workplace culture are different kinds of intangibles, but they too can affect a company’s ability to create value.”

 

Stakeholder Capitalism Tweaked for Fairness Works

     They conclude the article as follows:

“Whether the public experiences capitalism as value creation or value extraction depends in no small measure on how companies are led. Declining confidence in capitalism is, therefore, a challenge to the practice of management. The know-how exists, but it remains uncommon. The task now is to make it a core management capability. That may be the most convincing answer business leaders can offer a public losing faith in capitalism.”

     Whether one calls it compassionate capitalism, stakeholder capitalism, or conscious capitalism, the evidence suggests that it works, not only for all stakeholders, but for the companies’ bottom lines as well.

   

 

  

References:

 

Americans are losing faith in capitalism. The problem isn’t capitalism. Ravi Dhar and Jon Iwata. Fortune. September 9, 2026. Americans are losing faith in capitalism. The problem isn’t capitalism

 

 

 

HON Rule for Hazardous Chemical Plant Air Pollutants Continues to Be Delayed by Trump Administration: BTEX, Ethylene Oxide, Chloroprene, and Vinyl Chloride Among Chemicals Targeted

     In April 2024, Biden EPA Chief Michael Regan signed the Hazardous Organic National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants rule, known as the HON rule, to strengthen regulation of pollutants from chemical plants. The regulation called for better fenceline air monitoring, more openness and public availability of data, and lower thresholds for pollutants, some of which are known or likely carcinogens. By one account, the region around petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast in Louisiana, an area known as “Cancer Alley,” has nearly 50 times the national average cancer rate due to air pollution. That area is also home to a majority of African-Americans, which makes it an environmental justice issue, and one that has been considered so for a long time.

     Beth Gardiner, a journalist who specializes in air pollution and has written a book and many articles on the subject, wrote an article for Grist explaining how the Trump EPA has delayed compliance requirements for the rule and has otherwise weakened it. Dangerous air pollutants emitted from chemical plants include chloroprene, ethylene oxide, BTEX, and vinyl chloride. In 2025, Trump granted two-year exemptions from the HON rule to more than 50 petrochemical facilities. In July 2026, he issued 20 more temporary exemptions, and the EPA said it would propose a rewrite of the regulation this fall. The rewrite will likely reduce protections.

     The HON rule:

“…requires petrochemical plants to upgrade their pollution control equipment to reduce emissions of two hazardous chemicals: ethylene oxide and chloroprene. It also mandates air monitors at plants’ fencelines to measure concentrations of those chemicals and four more — benzene, ethylene dichloride, vinyl chloride, and 1,3-butadiene — and requires operators to carry out necessary repairs if emissions exceed limits.”

“Tracey Woodruff, a Stanford University epidemiology and population health professor who formerly worked on toxic assessments at the EPA, said the pollutants covered by the HON rule are “the classic bad guys of toxic chemicals,” compounds that raise risks for breast cancer, liver cancer, leukemia, lymphoma, and reproductive problems. “We’ve known about their toxicity for decades,” she said, and “they should have been more highly regulated a long time ago.”

     The rule also closes loopholes for allowing these emissions during times of startup and shutdown, such as before and after maintenance or big storms. These types of venting can emit high amounts of pollutants. The rule covered 220 large petrochemical plants, 60% of which are in Texas and Louisiana. She notes that the Trump administration used unusual means to justify its delay in implementing the rule.

“In granting the postponements, Trump invoked a Clean Air Act provision that environmental lawyers say has never been used: allowing temporary exemptions to emissions rules if they are “in the country’s national security interests” and if the technology required to comply with a regulation is unavailable.”

          They basically argued that the rule puts too high a burden on the chemical industry and hurts competition with foreign producers of the same products.

“The HON Rule imposes substantial burdens on chemical manufacturers already operating under stringent regulations,” Trump’s exemption proclamations said. “Maintaining a robust domestic chemical industry is vital to safeguarding the supply chains that underpin our economy and to reducing the Nation’s dependence on foreign control over materials critical to national resilience.”

     Apparently, they provided no evidence other than such statements to justify the delays, which technically is required by law. The American Chemistry Council did provide some detail:

“The American Chemistry Council, a trade group representing petrochemical producers, said the exemptions “offer a pathway for relief for some sources from some of the unrealistic timelines” in the HON rule. It called the regulation “overly stringent” and said it “exceeds the EPA’s statutory authority, disregards relevant scientific evidence, and imposes some requirements without technological availability.”

“The EPA said in an emailed statement that all its proposals on air toxics aimed to “protect American industry and supply chains, while still minimizing Americans’ unnecessary exposure to hazardous air pollutants.”

     That statement certainly suggests that the current EPA is prioritizing American industry over exposure to hazards. Woodruff noted:

“The policy changes “will lead to people getting sicker and dying,” she said. “This is exactly opposite of what this administration claimed they wanted to do in terms of ‘Make America Healthy Again.’”

     The EPA is trying to undo other Biden air pollution rule moves as well, pretty much all of them. Some of these relate to chemical plants.

“The EPA has also proposed undoing changes the Biden administration made to strengthen a safety rule called the Risk Management Program, which empowered workers dealing with hazardous substances to stop operations they believe to be dangerous, and required chemical facilities to prepare for natural disasters, undergo independent audits after accidents, and share information with the public.”

     Accidents are a major issue as well, and that rule has requirements meant to prevent them and analyze them in detail after they occur. Shiv Srivastava, policy director at Fenceline Watch, a Houston environmental justice group, noted:

“Nationally, there were 131 accidents resulting in reportable chemical releases last year. For those living near the Houston area’s nearly 700 chemical plants, “there are constant explosions, there are constant fires, there are constant black, dark plumes that linger over our communities,” Srivastava said.

     The EPA noted:

“Due to the varied, complex nature of chemical facilities, the facility operator is in the best position to assess risks and identify steps to mitigate these risks,” it said.

     This is likely true, but regulators need access and to be educated on the plant’s variable activities. The public, those likely to be affected negatively by the emissions, also need to be better informed about emissions during accidents as well as day-to-day emissions. That is one HON requirement that the Trump EPA rolled back.

 “Last year, the administration also removed an online data tool the Biden administration had created to give communities located near petrochemical plants information about their operations, including their accident history, emergency response plans, and the chemicals they handle. Srivastava said the tool’s loss cuts off neighbors’ access to even the most basic information about nearby plants — their names and locations, for example — making it hard for communities to even begin preparing for accidents.”

References:

 

A hard-won rule to cut chemical plant pollution is being unraveled. Beth Gardiner. Grist. September 6, 2026. A hard-won rule to cut chemical plant pollution is being unraveled

Biden-Harris Administration Finalizes Stronger Clean Air Standards for Chemical Plants, Lowering Cancer Risk and Advancing Environmental Justice. U.S. EPA. April 9, 2024. Biden-Harris Administration Finalizes Stronger Clean Air Standards for Chemical Plants, Lowering Cancer Risk and Advancing Environmental Justice | US EPA

Ontario’s Char Tech Uses Pyrolysis of Woody Biomass to Make Biogas, Biocarbon as a Met Coal Replacement, Biochar as a Soil Amendment, and Activated Biochar for Contaminant Removal: They Also Want to Convert Biosolids to Biochar

      Ontario-based Char Tech is partnering with steel producers in Canada and the U.S. to use high-temperature pyrolysis for organic waste streams in order to produce biogas and biocarbon, a solid fuel for steel production. At the same time, it offers a disposal solution for woody biomass, biosolids, and other materials by turning them into biogas.

     According to Jacob Wallace of Waste Dive:

“The company began by developing a process to convert anaerobic digestate into an activated carbon product that could pull hydrogen sulfide out of biogas. But when executives met with steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal, they decided to pursue a solution to produce biocarbon that could replace metallurgical coal in steelmaking facilities.”

     Char Tech is developing a facility to process woody biomass. The output of the facility is expected to be 20% solids that can be turned into biocarbon and 78% volatile matter and gas. The biogas can be further processed into RNG. Steelmakers could potentially readily offtake significant amounts of biocarbon. Biochar is another potential byproduct. However, the market for biochar is mainly for carbon offsets, and guaranteed offtake is less certain.

     Char Tech is also involved in processing biosolids left over from sewage treatment into biochar with a process that also removes PFAS chemicals. They are involved with the city of Baltimore for such a project.

“Char Tech’s first commercial-scale plant is expected to come online this month in Thorold, Ontario. It’s developing two other facilities in Saint-Félicien, Québec, and Hurket, Ontario. Each of those is expected to produce biocarbon and RNG. White said the company is also interested in advancing its biosolids process in the United States, potentially by licensing the technology rather than building new plants itself.”

“Ultimately what we’re doing here is important,” White said. “It’s about getting the technology deployed rapidly.”

     To summarize, the company is using woody biomass waste to produce biocarbon for steelmaking, along with biogas. They are also processing biosolids into biochar, removing PFAS chemicals. Their high-temperature pyrolysis (HTP) process is a continuous autothermal process, where organic materials (biomass, biosolids, organic waste streams) are heated to over 800°C in a completely oxygen-free environment to create two high-value coproducts: biocarbon and renewable energy.

     There is another product they are also exploring. That is activated biochar. They note below what it is, what it does, and how it is activated. It can be used in the environmental remediation industry and for odor control at landfills, a big need.

References:

 

Char Tech develops pyrolysis to fuels sites; RNG news from Waga, Neogenyx: The Ontario-based company is partnering with steelmakers to turn woody biomass into a replacement for metallurgical coal and RNG. Jacob Wallace. Waste Dive. September 4, 2026. Char Tech develops pyrolysis to fuels sites; RNG news from Waga, Neogenyx | Waste Dive

Biocarbon & Biochar. Char Tech. BIOCARBON | CHAR Technologies

 

 

 

Did Angiosperms Appear in the Early Permian, 165 Million Years Before the Cretaceous? Paleobotanist Xin Wang Thinks They Did

     I will first note that researcher Xin Wang’s work has been a bit controversial. There is certainly no widespread evidence that angiosperms, plants with seeds enclosed within an ovary, which develop into a fruit, existed before the Cretaceous period. Wang has done other research suggesting that angiosperms existed in the Jurassic period, but extending this to the Early Permian is indeed a big stretch. The Wikipedia entry on ‘flowering plants’ notes that Wang’s work has not been widely accepted:

“…angiosperms appeared suddenly and rapidly diversified during the Early Cretaceous (beginning ~130 mya), much later than other major plant groups. Claimed records of flowering plants prior to this are not widely accepted, as all supposed pre-Cretaceous "flowers" can be explained through being misidentifications of other seed plants. Furthermore, almost all of these controversial fossils are described in papers co-authored by the researcher Xin Wang, such as the particularly debated Nanjinganthus.”

     The authors, including Wang, of a new paper in the journal Plant Biosystems suggest that there is indeed evidence of angiosperms dating back to the Early Permian and cite some examples. They think that it is simply that the structures of angiosperms were not recognized as such:

“The early age and the lack of conduplicate carpels in these fossils deter many from recognizing them as angiosperms. Such a hesitation is also rooted in the long held “no-angiosperms-until-Cretaceous” belief.”

“Arguably, Permian angiosperms cannot win full acceptance until the origin of apocarpous gynoecium composed of multiple carpels is critically re-analysed in the light of fossil evidence. Therefore, carpel-like fossils related angiosperms are badly needed in palaeobotany. Here, we report the first carpel-like structures, Permocarpelloides gen. nov., from the Lower Permian (Asselian Shanxi Formation) of Shanxi, China, to complement the former evidence of Permian angiosperms. The Permian age of this fossil pins down a 295-Ma-long history for angiosperms. The unique morphology of Permocarpelloides supports the existence of an apocarpous gynoecium in the Permian, and its differences from typical magnolialean carpels shed new light upon carpel origin and evolution.”

     The specimens showing the ovules were found in the Shanxi region of China, in the Shanxi Formation, which consists of coal beds, shale, siltstone, and limestone. The specimens were found in a siltstone, aged to the Asselian stage of the earliest Permian, dated approximately 295–298.9 million years ago. Incidentally, some of the rocks around where I live, likely including those on my own property, are of this age. The specimens are of a plant they named Permocarpelloides shuozhouensis.  

    It is thought that the early gymnosperms: conifers and seed ferns, emerged 300 million years ago when the climate became much drier, and seasonality became more pronounced. That is also when insects began interacting with them, although there is no direct evidence in the fossil record for gymnosperms being pollinated by insects until the Jurassic. It is thought that when angiosperms developed in the Cretaceous, they were pollinated by insects such as beetles. If Wang is correct, then those insects would be needed for pollination. While there was a significant diversification of insects beginning in the Early Permian, there is no evidence of pollination of gymnosperms, nor of angiosperms if they even existed. There were beetles around then, and some flying insects as well, but modern pollinators like bees did not emerge until the Early Cretaceous.   

     The paragraph below explains the reasoning behind seeing the specimen as an angiosperm and why it differs from the seeds of conifers and seed ferns present at the time.   

“A caveat for the above conclusion is that many Conifers may enclose their seeds after pollination (Tomlinson and Takaso 2002) and the same is also known for some fossil taxa, for example, Caytonia Thomas (Harris 1933). However, in our opinion these exceptions do not undermine our interpretation of Permocarpelloides as angiosperm carpels/fruits. In Conifers, almost all the enclosed seeds occur on the adaxial side of scales and bracts, in contrast to the seeds/ovules positioned between two lines along the carpel margins in Permocarpelloides. In the case of Caytonia, the ovules/seeds are on the adaxial side of the cupule wall and the general morphology of cupule and basal opening of the cupule have no equivalents in Permocarpelloides. Another ghost alternative is seed ferns, which originally designated plants bearing seeds and fern-like foliage. We currently have no clue about the foliage of Permocarpelloides thus comparison based on this trait is impossible. Yet, there are no known seed ferns bearing reproductive organs anyhow similar to Permocarpelloides, in spite of the great diversity documented in seed ferns (Taylor and Taylor 2009; Taylor et al. 1994, 2006, 2007; Doyle 2006). These differences are, in our opinion, deep enough to outweigh doubt over interpretation of Permocarpelloides as an early angiosperm.”

     They also write about other possible interpretations of the new species, such as designating it to a new group of gymnosperms. Below, they explain that and suggest that it could just be new evidence for the suspected blurring of the difference between gymnosperms and early angiosperms in the fossil record.

“Even if Permocarpelloides were finally placed in a new group of gymnosperms, this treatment would not reduce the evolutionary significance: Permocarpelloides would then be the first gymnosperm displaying angio-ovuly and angiospermy, suggestive of the blurry boundary between gymnosperms and angiosperms that has long be theoretically assumed but never confirmed by fossil evidence so far. Independent of being an angiosperm or a gymnosperm, Permocarpelloides is a peerless plant that sheds novel light on the evolution of seed plants.”

     Below, they suggest other possible evidence for Early Permian angiosperms:

“The possible ecological relationship between angiosperms and Permian insects (Khramov et al. 2023; Khramov et al. 2020; Peña-Kairath et al. 2023) deserves further investigations. Furthermore, gene and phylogenomic studies have converged to a pre-Cretaceous origin of angiosperms (Martin et al. 1989; Wolfe et al. 1989; Becker et al. 2000; Shi and de Peer 2026; Li et al. 2019; Zuntini et al. 2024; Ma et al. 2025; Ramshaw et al. 1972). Agreement among these independent lines of evidence, including fossil evidence, insects, and molecular dating, unveil a previously hidden fact: angiosperms have a long history dated back to the Early Permian.”

     Since I have rocks of this exact age quite nearby, I plan to investigate further. There are many different plant and marine fossils nearby, some in the slightly older Monongahela Group. That group contains world-class petrified wood and coal balls, which have well-preserved plant fossils. Coal balls are concretions that form in coal beds. The permineralization is not quartz or opal as in the case of petrified wood, but calcium and magnesium minerals. Back in the late 80s when I was an undergrad, I worked for a paleobotanist. One thing I did was make acetate peels of these coal balls in order to get full 3D representations of plant fossils. I have identified a limestone down in the creek below my house that appears to be fossiliferous, and I plan to collect more specimens when access is better in the late fall and winter. Here on the ridgetop is likely where the earliest Permian outcrops are, and most rocks preserved on the ridge are sandstones and siltstones. There are similarities and differences between the site here and the site in China. Both were positioned near the equator at the time of deposition. However, the U.S. area was part of the mass of continents known as Pangaea, and the Shanxi region of China was a small isolated island. As my historical geology teacher taught me: "isolation yields speciation." Thus, the species found there may never have occurred on Pangaea. The beginning of the Permian marks when ice sheets formed at the poles, especially the Southern polar area, resulting in a global drop in sea level. This followed the Alleghenian uplift in Appalachia. It represents the last time this area was offshore or nearshore, and the Appalachian Mountains have been eroding away ever since. 

     Below is the paleogeography at the Permian-Pennsylvanian boundary. Both the Euroamerican and Cathaysian plates are along the equator, but the Cathaysian plate is isolated. Thus, I would say it is a long shot to find similar species here. 

     However, the ice sheets led to more land being exposed, so land corridors from the Cathaysian plate to the Euramerican plate occurred soon after the advent of the Permian, as shown below.

References:

 

Permian carpel-like organs and their implications on origin of angiosperms. Xin Wang, Qiang Fu, Weijia Huang & Jie Sun. Plant Biosystems. Volume 160, article number 257 (2026). August 25, 2026. Permian carpel-like organs and their implications on origin of angiosperms | Plant Biosystems | Springer Nature Link

Flowering plant. Wikipedia. Flowering plant - Wikipedia

Permian. Wikipedia. Permian - Wikipedia

 

Retrofitting Dams to Produce Hydropower in the U.S. Could Generate 15.2 TWh of Electricity, or 4 GW of Capacity, According to New Study by Oak Ridge National Lab

       The DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recently assessed the potential of powering non-powered dams in the U.S. to produce hydropower. Its assessment suggests that 4GW of capacity could be tapped, which could generate up to 15.2TWh of electricity annually. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was also involved in the study. ORNL notes that historically, only about 3% of U.S. dams have been powered by adding turbines and associated infrastructure. The 4GW in capacity was spread over 2600 non-powered dams (NPDs), with an average of 1.4 MW per facility.

     The engineers utilized an open-source software platform known as HydroGenerate to assess the NPDs. According to Interesting Engineering:

“The software models power production by pairing turbine performance curves with hydraulic head, which measures the potential energy created by water elevation behind a dam. It also calculates a site-specific design flow to indicate the exact turbine dimensions needed for peak operating efficiency.”

“To establish this metric, the system processes daily historical records from the US Geological Survey’s stream gage network alongside Dayflow, an Oak Ridge dataset that routes runoff across American river channels.”

     Previous assessments came up with higher estimates of between 12 and 30 GW but did not consider the practical constraints to powering NPDs. The figure below shows improvements made after the previous assessments. 

     The new assessment accounts for seasonal flow changes and existing structural limits.

“Many of these dams already serve other critical purposes, and their operational constraints — such as flood control or navigation — can significantly limit hydropower development,” added Carly Hansen, the project’s principal investigator and lead author of the report. “We’ve worked to reflect those limitations in a way that hadn’t been done before.”

     The flowchart below shows the methodology for estimating monthly hydraulic head.

     About 86% of the identified capacity was found to occur on federally owned property, with sites clustered heavily in the Great Lakes basin and along the upper Mississippi River. The Lower Ohio River Valley also had several sites

     They note that updates to the software are planned.

“Upcoming updates will introduce multi-decade precipitation and streamflow variations into the software, while expanding field evaluations to include non-powered dams throughout Alaska and Hawaii.”

     The researchers noted that hydropower development typically takes time, years to a decade or more, and precipitation and streamflow rates change.

“Hydropower development takes time, often decades, so we need to consider what future water availability might look like,” Hansen said. “In some regions, increasing precipitation could even create greater potential for hydropower in the future.”

     In the paper's conclusion below, they note the importance of feasibility in determinations of NPD powering potential.

 

References:

 

Powering 1.4 million US homes: Untapped dams could generate 15.2 TWh electricity. Aman Tripathi. Interesting Engineering. September 6, 2026. Powering 1.4 million US homes: Untapped dams could generate 15.2 TWh electricity

ORNL assessment uncovers hydropower opportunities in existing dams. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. September 1, 2026. ORNL assessment uncovers hydropower opportunities in existing dams

AN ASSESSMENT OF TECHNICAL HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL AT NONPOWERED DAMS IN THE UNITED STATES Carly Hansen, Juan Gallego-Calderon, Camilo Bastidas Pacheco, Cleve Davis, Scott DeNeale, Rohit Mendadhala, Jakob Meng, Glenn Russell, Sean Turner. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Idaho National Laboratory. January 2026. 3014287