The Sacramento Valley Aquifer System: Irreversible Land Subsidence Via Aquifer Compaction Deformation Due to Overuse and Drought, According to Study

      California and much of the U.S. West have been under a drought for many years. The years 2020-2022 were the worst drought years. During those two years, as new research shows, the Sacramento Valley aquifer system was compacted and deformed due to land subsidence. The study measured ground deformation and groundwater levels during the period 2016-2022. Along with the drought, continued high groundwater withdrawals contributed to the subsidence. When groundwater is extracted, the pressure in the aquifer drops, making land subsidence more likely. While some land subsidence is reversible, or elastic, the study confirms that in this case, the subsidence is irreversible, or inelastic. 

     The Sacramento Valley, along with the San Joaquin Valley to the south make up California’s Central Valley, which is responsible for about 25% of U.S. food production.

     The study concludes that the Sacramento Valley aquifer system’s capacity has been permanently reduced as the land subsidence was accompanied by compaction deformation of the aquifer.

"All available measurements suggest that the accelerated subsidence starting in 2021 primarily results from inelastic compaction due to groundwater extraction," the researchers write in their paper.

"On average, the ground surface does not rebound to its pre-2021 state even as groundwater levels recover with seasonal recharge at the end of 2021, indicative of irreversible deformation."

     The result is a permanent loss of storage capacity in the aquifer. Satellites equipped with navigation systems and radar instruments measured ground deformation down to the millimeter level. These are known as Interferometric synthetic-aperture radar, or InSAR. During the period 2016-2020, the data showed that ground subsidence was elastic and returned to its previous level after sufficient recharge. The subsidence during those years was in the range of about 2 centimeters per year, but during 2020-2022, that increased to as much as 50 centimeters per year, 25 times as much. The paper's significance and abstract are shown below, followed by the acceleration in subsidence, a map of the inSAR and groundwater data stations, and historical groundwater level changes.

     The researchers also noted that the methods they used could be used worldwide to monitor groundwater withdrawal-induced land subsidence.

"By imaging this sharp transition at the regional scale, our analysis demonstrates the potential of space-based monitoring for early detection of groundwater overdraft and the resulting loss of aquifer storage capacity worldwide," write the researchers.

     Science Alert explains:

“They estimate that the loss of water storage space per year jumped up to 0.2 cubic kilometers (about 7 billion cubic feet) from 2021, around a five-fold increase compared to the previous years.”

“That's the equivalent of around 30 percent of the annual water consumption of Los Angeles being lost in terms of capacity: a shrunken aquifer that's not going to be able to store as much water going forward.”

     Importantly, they note that analyzing the network of 2500 groundwater wells did not yet reveal the aquifer changes that the satellite data did, emphasizing the importance of satellite-based land subsidence measurements.

"Real-time monitoring of surface displacements through satellite geodesy, which provide an integrated measure of internal deformation over the entire sedimentary column, could have enabled early detection of this sharp transition and potentially reduced storage loss through timely remedial actions," write the researchers.

"Developing such capability is especially critical in regions where in situ monitoring is unviable but groundwater resources increasingly vital."

     According to the paper, there may have been a shift in the aquifer, which, like many aquifers, has lots of heterogeneity, from withdrawal mainly from coarse-grained, highly permeable rocks to withdrawal from the finer-grained portions of the aquifer.

“…the groundwater dataset is likely skewed toward pressure variations occurring in the coarser-grained, high-permeability aquifer units and the outer edges of fine-grained formations. The in-phase poroelastic response during this period thus suggests that deformation predominantly occurs within these units. In this context, the abrupt acceleration of subsidence in 2021 may indicate a transition from water being primarily drawn from the coarse-grained layers and the edges of adjacent units to significant extraction from the deeper portions of fine-grained units due to higher vertical head gradients associated with increased extraction and decreased recharge during drought periods.”

     The paper’s conclusions are given below and stress the need for more conservative groundwater management strategies in the future.

References:

 

California's drought has now caused irreversible damage to a crucial aquifer. David Nield. Science Alert. August 4, 2026. California's drought has now caused irreversible damage to a crucial aquifer

Central Valley (California). Wikipedia. Central Valley (California) - Wikipedia

Abrupt transition to irreversible damage in the overdrafted Sacramento Valley aquifer system. Stacy Larochelle, Kristel Chanard, Manon Dalaison, Jérôme Fortin, Romain Jolivet, Laurent Longuevergne, Luce Fleitout, Donald F. Argus, Louis-Marie Gauer, and Jean-Philippe Avouac. PNAS. Vol. 123. No. 31. July 27, 2026. Abrupt transition to irreversible damage in the overdrafted Sacramento Valley aquifer system | PNAS

Senate Bill to Aid Microgrids and DERs, Endorsed by DOE, States, and Electrical Manufacturers, Being Considered

     Electrical reliability is a top-of-mind issue these days as demand continues to increase after years of no growth. A Senate bill was recently introduced called the Supporting Transformative Resilience, Operations, and Next-Generation Grid Innovation Deployment, or STRONG GRID Act, which seeks to make microgrids and distributed energy resources eligible for funding under state energy program grants and establish state-run grid resilience programs to support their deployment. The bill would empower a $200 million DOE pilot demonstration project and unleash $500 million in state grants.

“The National Association of State Energy Officials, the GridWise Alliance and manufacturers and distributors of grid equipment have endorsed the bill, saying it could help advance the national conversation around grid modernization. “Microgrids, generally, they’re not new. But they’re new to a lot of policymakers and states,” Peter Ferrell, senior director of government relations at the National Association of Electrical Manufacturers, told Utility Dive.”

     Microgrids can advance distributed energy resources (DERs) in the following ways, according to Utility Dive:

     They note that the money for states could do the following:

     Microgrids essentially can aid power system reliability, which is a need that grows alongside demand growth. Microgrids can help during extreme weather events by working to prevent outages. Some can be islanded, providing off-grid power during outages. They can also be built much faster than adding new generation or transmission. They are one tool among several to make grids more resilient and reliable

“As grid operators issue resource adequacy warnings and utilities revise demand forecasts upward at an unprecedented pace, tapping into local resources is an increasingly important way to protect communities from reliability risks,” GridWise Alliance CEO Karen Wayland said in a statement.

 

     

References:          

 

$700M microgrid bill has state energy office, electrical manufacturer support: The bill would make microgrids and distributed energy resources eligible for state energy program grants and establish state-run grid resilience programs. Robert Walton. August 4, 2026. $700M microgrid bill has state energy office, electrical manufacturer support | Utility Dive

 

Igneous Intrusions: What They Are, Types, and How They Are Formed: Geology Page Explains

     When I did my undergraduate geology field camp in the Valley and Ridge Province of Central Nevada, I encountered igneous intrusions in the field. Specifically, we encountered dikes and sills in outcrop. Dikes are intrusions that cut across the existing rock layers and are typically near vertical in orientation. Sills are more horizontal and typically occur at rock bed boundaries and do not cut across rock layers. One sill I encountered was black with red streaks. I was looking at it from a distance, and I saw movement but couldn’t figure out what it was until I got closer. When I did, I saw that the movement was lizards that had coloration identical to the rock, black with the same red streaks. Those lizards must have evolved to use those particular sills as camouflage.

     Igneous rocks are formed when magma cools after intruding existing rocks or after it erupts from a volcano. Intrusive igneous bodies, also known as plutons, are those that cool and solidify below the surface. The magma that cools after being forced from a volcano is known as an extrusive igneous body. The graphic below from the Geology Page shows the range of intrusive igneous bodies and processes.

     The types of rock that make up igneous intrusions include granite, diorite, gabbro, and tonalite. They generally cool slowly below the surface and are typically coarse-grained. Some volcanic rocks can cool instantly. This is the case with obsidian, which is so very fine-grained and glassy in appearance. They note that:

“…intrusive bodies preserve critical records of magmatic processes, tectonic settings, crustal evolution, and thermal history (Best & Christiansen, 2001).”

     They are valuable for “interpreting magmatic systems, mapping tectonic environments, reconstructing crustal evolution, identifying mineral deposits, and understanding geothermal and volcanic systems.”

     Igneous intrusions may affect and change the surrounding rock through contact metamorphism. The morphology of igneous intrusions depends on magma viscosity, tectonic stress regime, depth of emplacement, composition & temperature, and the mechanical properties of the host rock.

     Batholiths are the largest igneous intrusive bodies. They are defined by a size of over 100 square kilometers and occur when multiple plutons amalgamate over millions of years. The key characteristics of batholiths are that they have an irregular shape and are composed mainly of granitic to dioritic rocks. They represent continental arc magmatism (subduction zones), display zonation: “mafic at margins → felsic at center,” and form deep in the crust (5–30 km depth).

“Batholiths reflect long-lived magmatic arcs associated with orogenies.”

     Batholiths usually form through successive pulses of magma. Examples are the Sierra Nevada Batholith in the U.S. and the Andean Coastal Batholith of Peru and Chile.

     Dikes cool faster than other intrusive bodies since they reach the less shallow and cooler parts of the subsurface faster. Due to this, they are often more fine-grained than other types of intrusive bodies. Dikes are what bring magma closer to the surface. They often form parallel or radiating swarms. An example is the Mackenzie Dyke Swarm in Canada, the world’s largest dyke swarm.

     Sills typically form under low differential stress. They are commonly associated with contact metamorphism in overlying rocks. They may feature columnar jointing. Examples of sills are the Karoo Sill Complex in South Africa and the Palatine Sill in Scotland.

     Individual plutons are smaller than batholiths, though they may combine to form batholiths. They may be composed of granite (felsic), gabbro (mafic), or diorite (intermediate). Smaller plutons are known as stocks. They often represent the tips of batholiths exposed at the surface.    

     Laccoliths are mostly horizontal dome-shaped intrusions. They are flat at the base with a convex upper surface. They are derived from viscous, silica-rich magma (e.g., rhyolite) and found in shallow crust. They result from higher magma pressure than occurs when sills are formed. An example is the Henry Mountains Laccoliths in the U.S.

     Lopoliths are mostly horizontal saucer-shaped intrusions that are concave-upward. They are often associated with mafic magmatism and form under extensional tectonics, such as rift systems. An example is the Bushveld Complex in South Africa, the world’s largest layered mafic intrusion.

     Pipes are another type of intrusion, although they become extrusive when the volcanoes they feed erupt. There are two types: volcanic pipes and diatremes. Volcanic pipes range from ultramafic to kimberlite. Kimberlite pipes may contain diamonds. Once, when I was working on oil & gas wells in Eastern Kentucky, a guy showed me an industrial-grade diamond that was reportedly found nearby, and we knew that there were kimberlite pipes associated with the Rome Trough, a failed rift one, active at the end of Cambrian time, associated with the opening of the Iapetus Ocean. I even searched near the area where it was said to be found, but didn’t find anything. Pipes can bring magma from deep below the subsurface. Diatremes are explosive breccia-filled conduits.

     Pegmatites are igneous intrusions that are extremely coarse-grained and are often associated with the formation of large crystals of quartz, feldspars, micas, and rare earth minerals. They form from volatile-rich late-stage magmas. Pegmatites are often the source of mineral mines.

     Xenoliths are big intrusions that transport deeper continental rock and magma toward the surface. The “foreign” rock fragments are transported in the magma and retain some of their character. They can be used to study magmatic geochemistry.

     There are three main ways igneous intrusions alter the surrounding rock: 1) Chilled margins, where rapid cooling leads to margins with finer-grained rock; 2) Metamorphic aureoles, where contact metamorphism forms an aureole around the intrusion, typically above it, and 3) Skarns, which result from fluid–rock reactions and metamorphism that can concentrate valuable minerals. I posted fairly recently about a tungsten prospect associated with garnet skarns in Western Idaho. Thermal gradient and time duration determine the metamorphic grade of aureoles and skarns.

     Igneous intrusions have the following textures: Phaneritic Texture: large, interlocking crystals formed during slow cooling; Porphyritic Texture: large phenocrysts set in a finer groundmass; Graphic Texture: intergrowth of quartz and feldspar in pegmatites, and Zoned Minerals: these reflect changing magmatic conditions during crystallization.     

     Geologists identify and study igneous intrusions with the following techniques: 1) field mapping – noting cross-cutting relationships and intrusive contacts; 2) petrography – microscopic analysis of crystals; 3) geochemical signatures - trace elements and isotopes reveal source magmas and crustal contamination; 4) geochronology - radiometric dating (U-Pb zircon) determines when the magmas were placed; 5) geophysics - gravity and magnetic surveys are used to locate intrusions.

    

 

References:

 

Intrusive Igneous Bodies: Types, Characteristics & Geological Processes: Types of Intrusive Igneous Bodies: A Complete Scientific Guide to Plutons, Dikes, Sills, Laccoliths & More. Geology Page. December 5, 2025. Intrusive Igneous Bodies: Types, Characteristics & Geological Processes | Geology Page

Defunding USAID Was a Big Mistake: Billionaires Keeping Life-Saving Aid from the Poor and Needy is Not a Good Look for the U.S.

      I don’t think this can be said enough, so I’ll say it again: It was a huge mistake to defund USAID. Despite some real and legitimate concerns about NGO biases, there was no need at all to stop alleviating suffering in the world. Sure, most of the NGOs are more in line with liberal policies than with conservative ones. So, what?

     The LA Times’ Robin Acarian places the blame squarely on three men, Trump, Musk, and Rubio, saying they should be ashamed. A trillionaire, a billionaire, and a sycophant perpetrated the defunding. She estimates that 4.5 million children have been cut off from the aid the U.S. was once proud to provide. The aid was paused on day one, January 20, 2025, with an executive order for a 90-day pause on all foreign aid, and then the agency was dismantled.

     Acarian writes:

“The effects of Trump's order were felt immediately. Shipments of antiretroviral HIV medications, malaria nets and oxygen tubes for newborn infants expired in warehouses or never arrived in sub-Saharan Africa. In Haiti and Sudan, the funding "pause" halted programs for clean water, maternal health and refugee food rations. And, inevitably, people began to die.”

“It's been a tragic end for an agency that was founded in 1961, the brainchild of President Kennedy, who saw the exercise of soft power as a way to counter Soviet influence abroad. Later, of course, it was Chinese economic influence that USAID programs sought to neutralize.”

     While there was likely some inefficiency in the organization that could have been addressed, Musk was especially against USAID, apparently after hearing on the Joe Rogan podcast where a former State Department official criticized it.

“Musk called it a "criminal organization," "a radical-left political psy op" and a "crazy waste of money."

“As Bill Gates so poignantly put it in a May 2025 Financial Times interview, "The picture of the world's richest man killing the world's poorest children is not a pretty one."

     The evidence shows that those who led the defunding were woefully misinformed about what the agency did. While Rubio announced that the life-saving parts of USAID would remain, that ended up not being the case. By one account:

“…nearly 263,000 adults and 518,428 children died unnecessarily.”

     That is more human beings than died in the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Gaza combined.

“A study in the Lancet concluded that by 2030, as many as 14 million people could die due to the defunding, including 4.5 million children under age 5.”     

     We need to reinstate these programs. Sure, we can have better oversight. This is something to look forward to if political headwinds change, but it won’t begin to happen until at least January 20, 2029, so there will be at least 900 more days of no help available. It still burns me that they allowed food and medicine to expire in warehouses, later to be destroyed, rather than spend the money to distribute what was already available. I agree with Acarian that this was the worst thing the Trump administration has done and should be shamed for it.

   

References:

 

Abcarian: Shame on Trump, Rubio and Musk, who've enabled needless deaths around the world. Robin Abcarian. LA Times. August 2, 2026. Abcarian: Shame on Trump, Rubio and Musk, who've enabled needless deaths around the world

Liberland: The Insane “Country” Founded by Crypto-Billionaires Where There are No Taxes and Money Literally Buys Votes

     Just when you thought you couldn’t possibly be more disgusted by billionaires, there’s this. I think it hurts just to read about it. A new micro-nation dubbed the Free Republic of Liberland on disputed territory between Serbia and Croatia has a goal of being truly libertarian and is being designed to run entirely on cryptocurrencies. It is being bankrolled by crypto billionaires. Apparently, it is a country for rich people only.

“To Liberland's wealthy backers, helping the poor - or indeed any form of taxation or centralised redistribution of wealth - is an affront to their individual liberty.”

     Chinese crypto billionaire Justin Sun is the country’s prime minister.

“He has also been accused by US regulators of fraud and market manipulation. Sun denies the charges, and recently reached a $10m settlement to resolve them.”

     His company, Tron, is thought to be one of the biggest platforms for moving illicit crypto. Including terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah, drug cartels, and mafia networks. Sun, who looks a bit young to be a billionaire, famously bought an art installation consisting of a banana duct-taped to a wall for $6.2 million and ate the banana.

“Sun says Tron has innovated new collaborations with law enforcement to tackle illegal transactions on the blockchain, leading to huge declines in illicit volume on the platform.”

     He is also a lead investor in Trump’s crypto venture World Liberty Financial. Both have profited significantly from the venture. Last year, Sun paid $29 million to fly to space with Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin company.

     Apparently, prototype micro-nations are a thing. Micro-nations are basically

“…areas claimed as independent nations but not legally recognised as such. Prospera in Honduras, Peter Thiel's Seasteading Institute, and Tim Draper's Draper Nation, a fully digital country with Bitcoin as its currency, are all chasing the same idea.”

     I think I’m getting nauseated. These people apparently believe that blockchain, the energy-wasting method used by cryptocurrencies to secure transactions, can replace governments.

     Curtis Yarwin, known as the founder of the Dark Enlightenment, believes that authoritarian government should replace democratic government and that blockchain technology can run it. His ideas have been praised by Peter Thiel and J.D. Vance. Apparently, he favors “an authoritarian structure that sits somewhere in between a corporation, a monarchy, and a blockchain-run micro-nation.” No, thank you. He believes that journalists and academics secretly run Western society. He thinks the countries of the world should be replaced by "corporate monarchies" ruled over by "CEO-kings".

     The BBC article noted the following, which, as in much of the article, I find disturbing:

“The crypto lobby has now surpassed the fossil fuel industry to become the most powerful lobby in the US, having contributed $238m in the most recent election cycle, according to Fox Business analysis. Yarvin, Sun, Draper, and Liberland all give a glimpse into the future some of them envision for us.”

     This is eccentric corporate oligarchy at its finest. All I can say is ewe! yucky!

    

 

References:

 

Meet the crypto billionaires building a world where money buys you a vote. Matt Shea. BBC. July 10, 2026. Meet the crypto billionaires building a world where money buys you a vote

Directly Monitoring Landfill Methane Emissions: Nova Scotia’s Flux Lab Measured Emissions at Landfills Across Canada and Found Emissions Were Less Than Models Predicted in Some Regions Due to Seasonal Climate Variations

    

      Most countries that estimate landfill gas emissions do it by modeling the emissions based on the parameters available rather than directly measuring them. However, as emissions monitoring technologies get better, become more available, and get cheaper, it is now possible to measure them directly. Research groups have done just that, initiating landfill gas emissions assessments. One such research group, Flux Lab, based at St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia, measured LF methane emissions across Canada, as shown in the map below. Flux Lab’s previous work was in oil & gas methane monitoring, where they honed their skills. In June, they published a peer-reviewed study in the journal Elementia: Science of the Anthropocene.

     The study includes 42 landfills. It was noted that predicted emissions often exceeded measured levels, particularly at sites in cold, arid environments. There were other discoveries as well that did not fit the models. A broad finding is that regional climate affects landfill methane generation.

     Waste Dive interviewed Flux Lab’s science lead, Dave Risk. Canada has variable climates and big seasonal climate differences. This gives LF gas emissions estimates a corresponding wide range. Canada has better data at the provincial level, but estimates more, resulting in wider ranges at the federal level.

     The measurements from the study are being used to develop federal LF methane policy. They previously did something similar for oil & gas methane emissions. He also said that estimations from modeling need to be updated.

     They utilized two truck-mounted detection and measurement systems in two parts of the country, and aircraft monitoring as well. They noted that one of their trucks was stolen, including the attachments. They found it later, abandoned, but with equipment stripped.

“Waste Dive: Carbon Mapper was also conducting its work using airborne measurements to identify fugitive landfill methane emissions around the time of this study. How should we think about your measurements and data in the context of those other attempts to calculate emissions?”

Risk: “I think that we’re seeing very much the same things, and that was very reassuring once we began comparing notes with Carbon Mapper.”

“That tells us there’s some basic things that are important. Like the work face is more important than we’ve been giving it credit for at most landfills. I think that’s a universal theme between our different studies. We do definitely see emissions across the gas-gathering system. Those emissions can sometimes even be higher, ironically, at sites that are actually producing RNG because they’re optimizing the landfill characteristics to produce gas. That’s creating issues, or it’s just not as fully captured as it could be.”

     Flux Lab’s study differed in its emphasis on climatic variations driving emissions variations. Their study also better explored landfills of different sizes.

“We found that some of those really small sites had quite low collection efficiencies, and it’s probably mostly down to the relative size of the work face versus the area with the waste stack and collection. They’re small, so they have a relatively large active face.”

     They tested their tools and did controlled emissions to validate their measurements. Truck-mounted measurements matched aircraft measurements. These things increased their confidence that their measurements were more accurate than the estimates of the IPCC model and other models.

     He notes that measurements were as estimated in much of the country, with the major exception of the cold, dry climates, where they were much lower than estimated. In those climates, he says, the models got the wrong decay constant. He also notes that Canada has a very high rate, about 95%, of what is known as ‘organics diversion,’ where organics like yard waste are diverted to compost facilities. That reduces measured emissions relative to estimates as well.

     The measurements were taken over a five-month period, mostly in the summer. That may offset the missing emissions in the cold, dry areas, which would be expected to be a little higher in winter.

“In Canada, where we have pretty severe winters in some areas, we really have the surface microbiological activity shutting off in the winter. We don’t have that oxidation potential that will remove methane in the winter time, so we can see that emissions can tick upward somewhat in the winter.”

     They hope to get a study going in the winter months in those areas to measure the seasonal variations.

     In the study, they note that challenges to measuring methane emissions include “changes in barometric pressure and wind speed, limited site accessibility, complex dispersion patterns caused by wind conditions, topography or obstacles, and the heterogeneous nature of landfill methane sources.”

     The following section from the paper’s conclusion explains the findings, their implications, and what the next steps should be.

“By integrating bias-corrected mobile survey measurements with inventory data, we demonstrated that Canada’s landfill methane inventory might be overstated—potentially by a factor of two. This suggests that methane mitigation targets could be more achievable than anticipated, especially if active work faces and other high-emitting sources were effectively managed. However, improving inventory accuracy requires measurement campaigns, not necessarily similar to the survey approach used in this exploratory study, at a selection of sites that reflect all the landscape and climatic conditions encountered in Canada, and better inventory data collection on landfill operations and waste composition to improve the input parameters of FOD models. Tracking emissions over an extended period at certain sites would provide valuable insights into how factors such as weather and operational changes affect emission variability. As Canada moves toward ambitious waste sector methane reduction targets, aligning mitigation strategies with measurement-informed inventories will be critical to success. Our study underscores how valuable empirical data can be for validating models and supporting the case for scaling up measurement-informed approaches—already pioneered in Canada’s oil and gas sector—to achieve similar transparency and effectiveness in waste management.”

 

 

References:

 

FluxLab’s ‘fast and furious’ campaign to measure Canada’s landfill emissions. Dave Risk discusses the research group’s latest study, which validated emerging understanding of the landfill conditions that lead to methane emissions. Jacob Wallace. Waste Dive. July 27, 2026. FluxLab’s ‘fast and furious’ campaign to measure Canada’s landfill emissions | Waste Dive

Canada’s landfill methane inventories: The challenge of accurate modeled and measurement-based emissions. Jordan Stuart, Evelise Bourlon, Rebecca Martino, Lindelwa Coyle, Susan Fraser, Emil Laurin, Felix Vogel, Nicholas Bishop, Sebastien Ars, and David Risk. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene (2026) 14 (1): 00115. June 26, 2026. Canada’s landfill methane inventories: The challenge of accurate modeled and measurement-based emissions | Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene | University of California Press

Waste Heat Recovery and Utilization: The Resource is Substantial: Absorption Chillers Use Waste Heat for Cooling, and Heat Pumps, Heat Exchangers, and Turbines Convert it to Electricity

      Kathleen "Katie" McGinty, Vice President and Chief Sustainability and External Relations Officer for Johnson Controls, argues that much more waste heat can be recovered from U.S. industries. She says the most effective waste heat recovery projects will be those that are deployed faster, more prices in operation, and those that are the most adaptive under pressure. These projects are enabled by “smaller, cheaper and more agile technologies are proving capable of outpacing far more complex, capital-intensive systems built for a previous era.”

     Her argument is basically one that prioritizes efficiency improvements by getting more from systems in place rather than building new, costly systems. She cites data that shows that 20-50% of the energy in some of our industrial systems is effectively wasted, most often as heat. She cites a McKinsey report from 2023 that concludes there is more than 3,000 terawatt-hours of usable waste heat that remains untapped globally each year, equivalent to three-quarters of total U.S. electricity consumption.

     The U.S. DOE notes that industrial waste heat consists of:

“…hot exhaust gases, cooling water, and heat lost from hot equipment surfaces and heated products.”

     They also note that there are many waste heat recovery technologies available, but they are not being utilized enough due to material constraints and higher maintenance costs.

     McGinty notes that AI systems are both increasing power demand with data center buildouts and being employed to make energy and heat recovery systems more efficient. The data center industry itself can be made more efficient.

“Industry-wide, average power usage effectiveness (PUE) remains around 1.5-1.6, meaning roughly one-third of total energy is wasted on non-compute work.”

     Cooling by far makes up the bulk of the “non-compute work” of data centers.

“Leading operators have demonstrated compliance with <1.3 annualized PUE targets while eliminating water evaporation from the cooling process. In other words, these data centers can cut non-compute related energy by 50%, while avoiding reliance on community resources such as water. At scale, that saved energy becomes immediately available capacity.”

     McGinty continues:

“Heat is the dominant form of energy in the global economy, accounting for nearly half of final energy consumption, yet it is rarely treated as a resource once generated.”

“That is a missed opportunity.”

“That is a missed opportunity.” Technologies like absorption chillers make it possible to use heat—not electricity—for cooling. When integrated into systems such as data centers, they can reduce chiller electricity by 90% while converting waste into a valuable workhorse.”

     Again, she emphasizes that both efficiency improvements and waste heat recovery have much faster deployment times, months, not years, which confers competitive advantages as well as reduced environmental impacts. Avoiding new buildouts of energy systems also leads to very significant cost-savings, which often keeps efficiency and waste heat recovery as low-hanging fruit.

“The winners in energy will not simply be those who only build the biggest systems. They will be those who combine scale with agility, delivering capacity more quickly, efficiently and intelligently.”

     Below, the chart estimates potential savings from the two classes of heat recovery: heat-to-heat and heat-to-power.

     McGinty also encourages those who keep statistics to keep better tabs on the amount of potentially recoverable energy through efficiency upgrades and thermal recovery.

     The McKinsey report from November 2023, the source of all the graphs in this post, is mainly focused on thermal recovery to reduce carbon emissions, but it gives some very good data and details on the size of the resource, types of thermal recovery, and possible ways to optimize it. Below, McKinsey gives the approaches and technologies of waste heat recovery. The three approaches are reuse, upgrade, and convert to electricity. Heat exchangers facilitate reuse. Upgrades include mechanical vapor recompression (MVR), heat pumps, and heat separation. Thermal energy is converted to electricity via steam turbines and Organic Rankine cycles (ORCs).

“Much of the reduction in the cost of waste heat recovery is due to the modularization of equipment and standardization of design, with further reductions when technologies scale up.”

     Those can be seen as scale-up features that lower costs.

     In buildings, better insulation and combining floor heating with heat pumps have resulted in better heat management and improved efficiency. They note that newer district heating systems can effectively harness much lower temperature heat sources than older systems. Thus, now industrial waste heat can power district heating as is being done increasingly in Europe.

     Below, they show the significant waste heat recovery potential of the refinery and cement sectors, emphasizing the economic factors. Both sectors generate a lot of waste heat, only some of which is directly reusable onsite.

     Some methods and strategies of thermal recovery are given below, but industries vary, so how each industry can best optimize recovery will vary as well. 

     Below, they illustrate that NPVs are positive for nearly all thermal recovery investments in all sectors. They also have very significant CO2 abatement potential, which is why they can overcome lower capex efficiency and poorer economics than competing projects. Different industries generate different CO2 stream compositions and purities and thus have different abatement costs.

     They recommend three strategic actions given below. Every industry that produces waste heat should evaluate and model its energy and heat management and seek to optimize recovery and efficiency.

 

References:

 

Katie McGinty: The energy economy’s biggest waste problem is already inside the system. Kathleen “Katie” McGinty. Fortune. July 6, 2026. Katie McGinty: The energy economy’s biggest waste problem is already inside the system

Waste not: Unlocking the potential of waste heat recovery. McKinsey Sustainability. Marcin Hajlasz, Stefan Helmcke, Friederike Liebach, Thorsten Schleyer, and Ken Somers. McKinsey Sustainability.  November 30, 2023. Unlocking the potential of waste heat recovery | McKinsey

Waste Heat Recovery Basics. U.S. Dept. of Energy. Waste Heat Recovery Basics | Department of Energy