Geologic Hazards: Earthquakes, Karst Terrain, Radon, Shore Erosion, Landslides, and Mine Subsidence are the Main Ones in Ohio; Volcanic Hazards, Geomagnetic Hazards, Glacier Collapse, and Glacial Lake Collapse Are Other Important Geohazards

     I recently saw that the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) had a page about geologic hazards. Thus, this post will focus mostly on Ohio geohazards, which make up most of the total geohazards. They define a geologic hazard as follows:

“A geologic hazard or "geohazard" is a geologic condition, either manmade or natural, that poses a potential danger to life and property.”

     They note that geohazard avoidance or mitigation involves investigating and understanding the geology behind the hazard. Thus, geologic mapping can be utilized as geohazard mapping. Certain rock types are prone to certain hazards.

“For example, maps that show the Columbus Limestone exposed at the surface also depict areas subject to karst development, and maps that show shale-rich Ordovician bedrock present on steep slopes in southwest Ohio also indicate landslide-prone areas.”

 

Shore Erosion

     In Ohio, shore erosion is all about Lake Erie shore erosion, but in coastal states it is oceanic shore erosion that is problematic. That shore erosion is influenced by sedimentation rates, which may be altered by the construction of dams that hold back sediment, increasing the likelihood of erosion. It is also influenced by individual storms. The Ohio page about lakeshore erosion lists the following factors or variables: erodibility of material, soil slope and composition, water level fluctuations, nearshore lakebed shoals and slopes, storm wave energy and duration, precipitation, groundwater and soil conditions, ice cover, shoreline orientation, beach composition, width and slope, and shore protection structures. Thus, there are many factors that must be considered. Ongoing mapping programs are important for assessing shore erosion. For Lake Erie, they note that:

“Erosion within the nearshore is often unnoticed since it occurs under the surface of the water, but it can be a significant cause of major erosive events along Ohio's coast.”

     Coastal erosion is a huge problem around the world where it occurs.

 

Earthquakes

     Earthquake hazards can be mitigated with seismology networks where seismographs are set up to monitor earth movement. This information is vital where earthquakes are common and can be used to predict dangerous earthquakes and to assess epicenter location and depth, which are important for determining future impacts and for defining which faults have slipped. Where earthquakes are likely to occur, there needs to be extensive knowledge of the faults and the likelihood of seismic events.

 

Karst Terrain: Limestone Sinkholes

     Karst terrain is where karstic limestone or dolomite outcrops or is near the surface. This can result in sinkholes that can constrain construction and present dangers to road construction. Groundwater hazards can also be present where groundwater aquifers are in karstic carbonates. In those cases, groundwater can travel much faster and farther than in other kinds of aquifers. Thus, contamination can also travel much faster and farther as well. Normally, soil can filter contaminants and chemically neutralize them over time, but with karst voids, those contaminants often enter groundwater without being filtered and chemically or biologically neutralized.

 

Landslides

     Landslides typically occur where slopes are steep. ODNR notes:

“Landslides occur when a hillside of earth materials destabilizes and moves downslope, which can happen rapidly or slowly over hours, weeks, or even years.”

     As a geologist, I learned about processes like land “creep” and slump erosion. In terms of rocks, shales are more erodible as well as being more subject to landslides than other rocks. The map below shows the regions in Ohio associated with the highest landslide risks. These include regions with steep slopes, areas where shale outcrops, and areas where glacial tills and clays are exposed to lakeshore erosion processes.

 

Radon

     Radon is a geohazard where certain rocks outcrop or occur close to the surface and can outgas radon into basements. Organic black shales, light-colored volcanic rocks, granites, sedimentary rocks that contain phosphate, and metamorphic rocks derived from these rocks are the major sources of radon. I wrote a post about radon in January 2025. Below is an EPA map of areas where radon exposure is a concern.

 

Mine Subsidence and Other Hazards of Abandoned Mine Lands

     Mine subsidence is a problem where there are lots of abandoned underground mines, such as in Eastern Ohio and nearby Appalachian states like West Virginia and Pennsylvania. These can present as large sinkholes. In Ohio, I-70 has been closed at times due to mine subsidence under the freeway. There are quite a few hazards associated with abandoned mine lands, including mine subsidence, landslides of tailings piles, erosion and sedimentation clogging stream channels and culverts, highwalls left over from surface mining, acid mine drainage, and mine openings. Entering mine openings can expose one to “poisonous or explosive gases, oxygen deficiencies, flooded sections, unstable roofs, hard-to-see vertical shafts, venomous insects and snakes and disorienting mazes of mine workings.” When I was young, we used to swim at a place we called Bear Mountain (or Bare Ass Mountain to some), and we used to jump off of a very high highwall. It was a bit dangerous as you had to leap out enough to avoid scraping on the rock, which is how a few people hurt themselves.

     There are two basic types of mine subsidence: pit subsidence and sag subsidence, which are described below:

“There are two types of subsidence: (1) pit, also called sinkhole or pothole, and (2) sag, or trough. Pit subsidence is characterized by an abrupt sinking of the ground surface, resulting in a circular, steep-sided, craterlike feature that has an inward drainage pattern. It is associated with roof collapse of mines that have total overburden – overlying, unconsolidated material and rock – of less than 165 feet, weak roof rock of shale or mudstone, and a ratio of unconsolidated-material thickness to rock thickness that is less than 1:2:1. Pit subsidence does not occur where the thickness of the unconsolidated overburden is more than 90 feet. Sag subsidence occurs as a gentle, gradual settling of the ground surface and is associated with roof collapse, pillar crushing, or pillar crunching of deeper mines (overburden of more than 75 feet). Sag subsidence may fill with water if the surface of the subsidence intersects the water table. Pit subsidence features generally do not hold water because the pit drains in to the underlying mine.”

 

Geomagnetism

     The U.S. Geological Survey monitors geomagnetism, which may present hazards to power transformers. USGS notes:

“Geomagnetic storms generate electrical currents that can damage transformers and cause cascading power failures. By accessing near-real-time information, engineers can adjust operations and avoid potential blackouts or other disruptions.” 

     They use magnetotellurics to map the electrical conductivity of rocks. The map below utilizes nearly 1800 data points across the U.S.

 

Volcanoes

     Areas where there are active volcanoes, such as Hawaii, are major geohazard zones. Geologists study and try to predict when eruptions will occur and how they will occur, whether explosively with massive outgassing or with more gentle lava flows with less pressure. Understanding geology is very important for predicting and mitigating such events. Related hydrothermal phenomena like geysers can also be hazardous.  

Glacier Collapses and Glacial Lake Collapses 

     As occurred recently in Nepal, glacier collapses can be immensely hazardous. In addition to that, the collapse of glacial lakes can also lead to catastrophic downstream flooding as well. 

 

 

References:

 

Geologic Hazards. Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Geologic Hazards | Ohio Department of Natural Resources

Geologic Hazards Science Center. Colorado School of Mines. U.S. Geological Survey. Geologic Hazards Science Center | U.S. Geological Survey

Ohio Karst: Geofacts. ODNR. GF31_Aden_2024.pdf

Mine Subsidence: Geofacts. No. 12. 2010. Mine Subsidence

Recently completed geophysical survey will help protect critical infrastructure from geomagnetic storms and space weather. U.S. Geological Survey. News Release. August 8, 2024. Recently completed geophysical survey will help protect critical infrastructure from geomagnetic storms and space weather | U.S. Geological Survey

 

 

 

NET Power’s Recalibration and Other CCS Delays, Deferments, and Cancellations

     Enverus’s Graham Bain provided an interesting update last month on NET Power's reconfigured plans for its CCS-equipped power plants and for downgraded CCS project plans in general in a LinkedIn post. I am a bit disappointed with NET Power, as I thought they would have had some plants up and running by now after considerable hype in the 2020-2025 period. Bain notes that they went from capture-by-design through pre-combustion capture through burning natural gas with pure oxygen yielding high-purity carbon for capture, to bolt-on carbon capture after the plants were built, and finally to no carbon capture at all. Below is a section from an August press release by NET Power.

     NET Power’s CEO Danny Rice noted:

“Our commercial strategy is recalibrated around what we believe today’s power customers are actually prioritizing: speed-to-power, reliability, and scale. Natural gas power generation, co-located with customer load and deployable on a fast timeline, is how we expect to meet that demand today. We continue to believe carbon capture and sequestration will play an integral role in the future of natural gas power, and our approach preserves that pathway, adding carbon capture in future phases as customer requirements, economics, and financing support it.”

     Bain summarized the changes at NET Power:

“The company was built on the Allam-Fetvedt cycle, which is an argument about concentration. Burn gas in pure oxygen instead of air and the exhaust comes off as nearly pure CO2.”

“𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱: Project Permian Phase I moves to conventional gas turbines paired with Entropy post-combustion capture. Oxy-fuel is out, capture stays, and it now costs more.”

“𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲: capture comes out of Phase I too. NET Power contracts 68 MW of turbines against a roughly 1 GW site ambition, the FID it had targeted for 2026 goes indefinite, and cash sits at $310mn against $424mn nine months earlier.”

“Speed first, then reliability, then cost, then carbon. Sustainability is now at the bottom.”

     Apparently, the 45Q incentive is not enough to ensure profitability at present, or at least in a timely manner. He also summed up other gas-with-CCS projects tied to AI buildout, with only about a third with announced CCS plans. In the others, CCS is delayed, deferred, or could be canceled.

“Across 15 announced North American gas-plus-CCS projects tied to AI there's about 18.5 GW of capacity and only 6.6 GW with capture in the announced scope. The rest is CCS-ready, deferred or offset-backed. Chevron ruled capture out of Project Kilby phase 1 on economics. Entergy pushed it to a retrofit. Prometheus buys 500 ktpa of removals instead of capturing at the stack. Three US retreats landed within six days, including Chevron leaving the Western Regional DAC Hub and Heidelberg Materials pausing Edmonton.”

     Commenters were surprised at NET Power's pivoting, some saying, like me, that they had higher hopes for faster deployment, and others stressing that the oxy-fuel combustion part of the power plants was the key feature, and is now the furthest part from deployment.

  

 

 

References:

NET Power went from capture-by-design, to bolt-on capture, to no capture at all. Graham Bain. August 2026. Post | LinkedIn

Net Power Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Provides Business Update. NET Power. Press Release. August 13, 2026. Net Power Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Provides Business Update

 

 

Wyoming Will Become a Premier Global Supplier of Helium Via Blue Spruce Operating’s Dry Piney Helium Plant in Sublette County

     With helium supply currently constrained by the Strait of Hormuz disruption and damage at Qatari LNG gas processing facilities, which are a major source of helium, there is a clear need for alternative supply both in the near term and for the long term.

     Blue Spruce Operating is developing the Dry Piney Helium Plant in Sublette County. Construction was set to begin in May 2026. The $1.3 billion project is expected to bring Wyoming’s contribution to 30% of global helium production. Construction is expected to be modular, with large modular components delivered to the site. According to Blue Spruce cofounder Andrew Moses:

“We’ve designed the gas processing facility so we can basically haul in big modules and hook them up in the field,” Moses said. “Rather than doing all of the construction and fabrication on site.”

     To minimize wildlife impacts, the project is sticking to a limited 5.5-month construction window per year from May 1 through November 15.

     When the plant is operational, it will advance Wyoming’s global contribution to helium production from 20% currently to 30%. Thus, this project alone represents 10% of global helium production. The project is very close to ExxonMobil’s LaBarge-Shute Creek facility, which produces around 20% of the world’s supply. Along with ExxonMobil’s project, it produces from the La Barge Platform.

“They are on the La Barge platform, which is this big, buried structure that allowed gases to accumulate for probably close to 70 million years,” Center for Economic Geology Research Director Fred McLaughlin told Cowboy State Daily in a previous interview. “And that’s one of the secrets to getting helium to slowly build up, because helium is a small atom, and it’s super buoyant and slippery.”

     The La Barge Platform is located at the edge of the Green River Basin and offers a very good helium trapping mechanism. The new project is also expected to produce about 1 TCF of natural gas over its lifetime.

     The Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (JAPEX) is a partner in the project.

“They’ve been a great strategic partner and have really helped us get to the point where we are at, ready to begin construction on May 1,” Moses said.

     Moses also notes that the state and county will benefit from the significant tax revenue.

“We will be generating over $20 million per year in severance taxes to the state of Wyoming,” Moses said. “And over $20 million a year in ad valorem taxes to Sublette County, where the project is located.”

“Over a 50-year project lifespan, that’s close to $2 billion in combined tax revenues, Moses said. There will also be about $300 million in helium royalties sent to the Wyoming Office of State Lands and Investments.

     According to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM):

“The project is estimated to be capable of producing more than 800 million cubic feet of bulk liquid helium per year from subsurface mineral estates.”

“With this approval, Blue Spruce Operating, LLC, may construct a natural gas plant to process and separate raw gas streams into saleable helium and methane products. The project includes nine gas production wells, access roads, buried gathering and utility lines, a natural gas residue sales pipeline, and an acid-gas injection facility to permanently sequester excess carbon in federal pore space deep underground. Commercial operations are expected to begin during the summer of 2028.”

References:

 

With New Sublette County Helium Plant, Wyoming Will Supply 30% Of World's Helium. Renee Jean. Cowboy State Daily. December 19, 2025. With New Sublette County Helium Plant, Wyoming Will Supply 30% Of World's Helium | Cowboy State Daily

BLM approves Dry Piney helium and carbon sequestration project. U.S. Bureau of Land Management. December 17, 2025. BLM approves Dry Piney helium and carbon sequestration project | Bureau of Land Management

Noble Gas Geochemistry at the La Barge Platform, Wyoming, USA: CO2 Source and Potential Total Petroleum System Investigation Tool. Matthew D. Merrill, Celeste D. Lohr, and Andrew G. Hunt. U.S. Geological Survey. AQPG Search and Discovery Article #20299 (2015). ndx_merrill.pdf 

Non-Operated Working Interest Owners Provide Needed Quick Capital for Drilling and Production Projects: How It Works and The Future

 

      Non-operated working interest owners have long been a feature of oil & gas projects and companies. With the advent of shale and tight rock production, which is more repeatable and predictable than conventional exploration and production, non-op WI owners could be more confident that their investments would succeed. This is simply because the dry-hole risk is virtually non-existent in these resource plays.

     Mercer Capital explains non-op WI ownership as follows:

“A working interest is an interest in an oil and gas lease, entitling the owner to a percentage of the profits from the oil and gas extracted within a leasehold area. Working interests bear all costs corresponding to the amount of working interest held. For this reason, they are often considered to be like a net profit interest.”

     A non-operated working interest simply means that a working interest owner is not the operator of the well. They are an investor and do not typically make any decisions regarding the wells. When operators buy other companies or production, they often take on the non-op WI owners of that production. Companies also market and sell non-op interest to buyers to help finance their projects. Some companies like Northern Oil & Gas are aggregators on non-op WI.

     Below, Mercer Capital notes that the Council of Petroleum Accountants Societies (COPAS) provides guidance for joint operating agreements (JOAs) involving non-op WI owners.

“In some instances, owners of non-operating working interests are charged periodically to pay for their share of the overhead costs incurred by the operator. The rate at which this overhead is charged to the non-op interest owners will inevitably differ from actual overhead costs, which are partially variable. One organization that often plays a role in these contractual relationships between operators and non-operators is the Council of Petroleum Accountants Societies (“COPAS”). Though it has no statutory authority, the organization is influential in modeling standard and widely adopted accounting practices for developing and maintaining joint operating agreements between parties involved in the oil and gas industry. These practices include guidance on how operator costs and overhead are allocated between an operator and a non-op holder.”

     They give an example below of how operator profit and loss can affect non-op WI owners subject to fixed monthly costs. These capital obligations can result in losses when commodity prices are low, and the non-op WI owner is still obligated to pay for drilling and production expenses.

     As noted below in Part 2 of Mercer Capital’s analysis, non-op investors don’t have the same concerns as operators and can focus mainly on the profitability of their investments.

“Non-op interests can also provide capital to the industry that is needed for further development.  Investors in the non-op space tend to be economically rational.  Profit margins and cash flow returns are typically the more immediate motive as opposed to numerous other factors that can come into play for an operator, such as leases on future acreage, drilling plans, capital budgets, debt lending parameters, and other factors.”

     They note that there are both non-op funds which function much like royalty investors as well as a few publicly traded companies that focus exclusively on non-operated working interest.

“There is a growing trend within the oil and gas space of developing specific non-op funds to fill an important role in the upstream capital markets.  There is an interesting cross-section of E&P investors and more passive investors akin to royalty investors who have shown interest in the niche.”

“There are also a few (mostly small) publicly traded companies whereby non-operating working interests are a primary focus of their balance sheets.”

     Below, they compare public non-ops to public royalty investors, noting that these royalty aggregators typically trade at higher valuations than public non-ops.

“When done right, non-ops can provide superior returns and quality valuations.  When not done right, non-ops can (in some cases) be a source of negative cash flow and sub-par valuations.”

     Below, Ranger Land & Minerals compares royalty interest (RI), overriding royalty interest (ORRI), and operating working interest (OWI). Non-operating working interest (NOWI) is the fourth type of interest.

     Below, they give the benefits and risks of non-operated working interest investment.

     They note that due diligence is required, including the consideration of commodity pricing, geology, well and play profitability, cost structure, and well performance. They note that JOAs involve allocation of revenues and costs, decision-making authority of the operator, accounting and reporting procedures, rights of audit and inspection for non-operators, and dispute resolution mechanisms. There are also tax benefits to non-op investing. These include deduction of intangible drilling costs, tangible equipment depreciation, and depletion allowance. These factors can increase investor profitability.

     Below, they compare non-op WI investment to other types of energy investments.

     They summarize below what makes a successful strategy for non-op WI ownership:

“A successful strategy for non operated working interests requires careful due diligence, diversification, strong operator selection, and ongoing monitoring. By aligning with trustworthy partners, leveraging technological advancements, and planning for long-term cycles, investors can unlock meaningful returns while navigating the complexities of the energy market.”

 

Non-Operated Working Interest Portfolio Sales and M&A Potential

     There is a trend in recent times of non-op WI owners selling their portfolios to operators or to other companies focused on non-op WI. One recent example is Chord Energy, which just sold its portfolio of Marcellus non-op WI to South Korea’s Posco International for $550 million. Chord can now focus more exclusively on its oil-weighted portfolio in the Williston Basin. Its CEO, Danny Brown, noted:

“This highly accretive transaction allows us to further strengthen our peer-leading balance sheet and focus on creating significant value from our world-class Williston Basin position. Chord's disciplined capital allocation, operational efficiency, and financial strength position us to create value while navigating a volatile macro environment.”

     Another example is Northern Oil & Gas’s purchase of a 25% undivided stake in Canadian Duverney light oil assets with a long-term joint development agreement with Parallax Energy Operating, Inc.

     NOG’s management commented:

"Quality oil inventory is becoming increasingly scarce, and NOG's scaled non-operated model positions us to access opportunities that most in our sector cannot. Our ability to structure creative, accretive transactions with best-in-class operators is what sets NOG apart. The Duvernay is one of North America's premier light oil resources — high-quality, low-cost, long-life inventory with meaningful upside that remains largely untapped. Parallax is led by a team with a demonstrated track record of developing Duvernay assets, backed by Carnelian Energy Capital, one of North America’s leading energy investors. The decision to incorporate equity consideration aligns mutual interests while enhancing our per-share metrics and balance sheet. This transaction is the result of disciplined evaluation of the meaningful opportunities we see in Canada, and a direct reflection of our ability to identify and convert high-quality assets into long-term value for shareholders."

     It has also been suggested that public non-ops may become merger and acquisition (M&A) targets, especially when economics may be most favorable due to commodity prices.

 

 

 

 

References:

 

NOG Announces Strategic Entry Into Canada with Light Oil Duvernay Acquisition; Takes 25% Undivided Stake in Assets with Long-Term Joint Development Agreement. Businesswire. May 26, 2026. NOG Announces Strategic Entry into Canada with Light Oil Duvernay Acquisition; Takes 25% Undivided Stake in Assets with Long-Term Joint Development Agreement

Non-Operating Working Interests in Oil & Gas: Part I: Characteristics of Non-Op Working Interests, the Risks, and the Benefits. Mercer Capital. February 2, 2024.  Non-Operating Working Interests in Oil & Gas-Part I

Non-Operating Working Interests in Oil & Gas: Part II: Markets and Valuation Characteristics of Non-Op Working Interests. Mercer Capital. February 19, 2024. Non-Operating Working Interests in Oil & Gas-Part II

Non-Operated Working Interests: Complete Strategy Guide. Ranger Land & Minerals. Last updated: October 7, 2025. Non-Operated Working Interests: Complete Strategy Guide

Chord to sell non-operated Marcellus assets to POSCO for $550mn. IntelliNews. September 17, 2026. Chord to sell non-operated Marcellus assets to POSCO for $550mn

 

Two Studies Suggest That Carbon Storage Through Enhanced Rock Weathering is Less Durable Than Thought

 

    Two recent studies cast doubt on the carbon removal durability of enhanced rock weathering.

 

Study 1: ‘Critical zone processes limit alkalinity export from natural basaltic systems’

     The first study was published in the journal Nature by researchers from Cornell University. The weathering of basalt, a volcanic rock, was studied in volcanic regions where it outcrops.

     According to the Cornell Chronicle:

“The researchers found that chemical reactions and limited water movement can substantially reduce the amount of weathering-generated alkalinity that leaves soils, moves through rivers and, ultimately, reaches the ocean. That alkalinity helps convert carbon dioxide into forms that can remain stored for long periods.”

     The conclusion of the study is simply that less carbon can be stored via enhanced weathering than previously thought.

“You obviously can buffer some CO2 emissions with this kind of process, but much less than people have hoped,” said lead author Louis Derry, professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences in the Cornell Duffield College of Engineering. “The idea that we’re going to get gigaton levels of CO2 reduction is not going to happen.”

     The researchers show that current methods of estimating the carbon removal effectiveness of enhanced weathering involve the dissolving and disappearance of calcium, magnesium, and other elements from crushed basalt in the upper 10 to 30 centimeters of soil. This is known as base cation depletion in the upper soil.  However, they argue that this is only the first step in the chemical process. As those chemical products pass through streams, soil, and groundwater, they enter the “critical zone,” the reactive layer where rock, soil, water, air, and living organisms interact. As the dissolved minerals move down, they can react with newly formed clays, oxides, and carbonate minerals, which can capture calcium and magnesium or generate acidity that consumes some of the alkalinity created by weathering.

“The net result is that only a modest fraction of dissolution products of weathering reactions – natural or engineered – is actually exported through the critical zone,” Derry said.

     They also challenge the assumption that grinding basalt into smaller particle sizes would enhance the speed of weathering reactions, noting that there is not a strong relationship between smaller particles and more surface area for reactions. I admit I am confused by this. I thought that anything broken into smaller pieces leads to more surface area being exposed. They do note a relationship between particle size and surface area at very fine sizes, however.  

“Among basalt samples proposed or used for enhanced weathering, the paper found no notable correlation between grain size and measured surface area.”

     They also note that enhanced weathering does work faster in wet, tropical environments, but not very fast in the dry, temperate areas that make up the world’s agricultural regions where most enhanced weathering projects have been proposed.

“Enhanced weathering may still provide useful local benefits, including buffering soil acidity, supplying nutrients or modestly offsetting emissions in some settings. But Derry argues that with limited resources available to address climate change, expectations for its global carbon-removal role should be grounded in how real landscapes behave.”

“We’ve got a lot of data from natural systems across a range of conditions,” Derry said. “We consistently see values that are much, much lower than the model studies. If you have finite resources to address a problem, you want to put them where they’re most likely to make a difference.”

     The study provides a good baseline for basaltic weathering. About 6% of the world’s surface is composed of basaltic rocks. Knowing the chemical weathering rates and characteristics of these zones provides important analysis for estimating the effectiveness of  enhanced weathering projects. They describe the findings as “limitations on watershed alkalinity export.” There are two kinds of limitations: 1) the formation of secondary minerals that react with dissolved mineral products in the critical zone, and 2) hydrological limitations where river basin discharge rates may not be enough to export more of the alkalinity.

Study 2: ‘Can enhanced alkalinity store carbon durably? Key questions remain about carbon removal strategies in open environmental systems’

     The second study has similar conclusions to the first, that enhanced weathering is not as durable as previously thought. Similarly, it is noted that reactions in the soil capture and utilize some of the carbon, break it down, and it makes its way to the atmosphere before it gets to the ocean or becomes sequestered underground for a lesser time period.

     According to an article about the study in The Conversation:

“Current models assume carbon captured on land or in coastal waters will reliably make its way into long-term storage in the ocean. However, these models don’t replicate all Earth processes.”

“In reality, part of the engineered capture of carbon can be reversed as water moves through soils, rivers, estuaries and coastal environments. Dissolved elements can become trapped again in new minerals such as clays, reducing how much carbon ultimately remains stored over long timescales.”

     The researchers found, however, that there are carbon losses on the way to the sought-after long-term ocean storage, which can last for thousands of years.

‘However, different materials dissolve at different rates. Climate, rainfall, soil chemistry and biological activity also influence how quickly reactions occur. This means carbon removal can vary enormously between environments.”

“Earth systems also contain many opportunities for the flow of carbon to weaken before it ever reaches the open ocean.”

“As alkalinity moves through the environment, dissolved elements released during weathering can become trapped again in new minerals. These reactions can consume alkalinity and reduce the amount of carbon ultimately stored long term.”

     They also note that while carbon storage is enhanced where enhanced weathering takes place, natural carbon uptake downstream may be impeded, reversing some of the benefits.

“The challenge is whether Earth systems can keep the captured carbon stored or whether we are simply moving carbon across time and space instead of durably removing it from the atmosphere.”

 

References:

 

Study casts doubt on carbon-removal method. Chris Dawson. Cornell Chronicle. August 26, 2026. Study casts doubt on carbon-removal method | Cornell Chronicle

Critical zone processes limit alkalinity export from natural basaltic systems. L. A. Derry, K. Maher & O. A. Chadwick. Nature volume 657, pages150–155 (2026). Critical zone processes limit alkalinity export from natural basaltic systems | Nature

Some technologies use accelerated natural processes to capture carbon – but can they store it durably? The Conversation. May 21, 2026. Some technologies use accelerated natural processes to capture carbon – but can they store it durably?

Can enhanced alkalinity store carbon durably? Key questions remain about carbon removal strategies in open environmental systems. Terry Isson and A. Joshua West. Science. 21 May 2026. Vol 392, Issue 6800, pp. 808-810. Can enhanced alkalinity store carbon durably? | Science

Grid Utilization Rates Fall When Wind and Solar Rise: Build More, Use Less, Pay More is the Result

      Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling in the Energy Bad Boys Substack refute the arguments made by Jigar Shah and others that it is only the lack of transmission that is impeding grid utilization rates, when that is only a part of the picture. Obviously, wind and solar resources are impeded by their intermittency, which is quite significant, as well as the limits on their capacity factors (solar up to about 24% and wind up to about 34%). For comparison, the avg. capacity factor for natural gas is in the high 50s percent, but would be much higher if those same resources were not used to back up renewables and then be taken offline when the renewables are available. Thus, it stands to reason that those natural limits on utilization virtually guarantee lower utilization rates for renewables, whether enough transmission is available or not.

     A couple of months ago I wrote about a study Jigar Shah was promoting, where computer simulations were showing that 300GW of existing transmission could be tapped since it was often not being used. I stated then that it would be great if that were true, but I was skeptical. They cite a similar study by Tyler Norris of Duke University that concluded that:

“…that nearly 100 GW of large new loads could be integrated with minimal impact if large electricity users temporarily reduce consumption during periods of grid stress by shifting workloads, utilizing on-site generation, or adjusting operations.”

     As the graph below shows, U.S. grid utilization has fallen steadily since it peaked in 1999 at 53.7% and fell to a record low of 39.4% in 2025.

     There is more proof in the graph below, which shows that since 1990, total installed capacity on the grid grew by 77%, but net generation only grew by 46%. However, it is mainly another way to show that grid utilization has dropped due to lower capacity factor generation growing on the grid.

     The graph below shows the relationship of price to grid utilization and installed capacity.

     Next, they go through the Net Zero America (NZA) study from Princeton University authored by Tyler Norris and Jesse Jenkins. They note that Jenkins was one of the biggest proponents of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). They note that the modeling in the study is highly dependent on using excess electricity to make green hydrogen.

“Importantly, the modeled NZA electricity generation growth figures are inflated by the model’s use of excess electricity to generate “green hydrogen.” This assumption then props up the fleet-wide utilization rates in the graphs below at around 30 percent, but it does so by assuming a massive increase in a technology that is collapsing around the globe.”

     The graph below shows how much each of the two scenarios: 1) E+ High Electrification and 2) E+RE+ (100 percent renewable) depends on green hydrogen production. The 100% renewable scenario is especially highly dependent on green hydrogen.

     The graph below models grid utilization rates under both scenarios from the study, compared to peak utilization and today's utilization rate. The E+ scenario would result in a 26% to 29% grid utilization rate depending on whether green hydrogen was made or not. The E+RE+ scenario would result in a 17% grid utilization rate with no green hydrogen and a 29% grid utilization rate with green hydrogen.

     Finally, they note that if there were no wind and solar on the grid over the years, the grid utilization rate would have remained high at 52%, which is just another way of saying wind and solar bring grid utilization rates down, which should be obvious to anyone who studies energy and electricity by now.

     They conclude:

“Overall grid utilization is falling in the United States because we added approximately 312,000 MW of wind and solar resources during a two-decade period when demand was essentially flat—which is also a great explanation on why prices have increased as much as they have.”

“Now that demand is surging again, the wind and solar advocates are using load factor as a red herring to hide the fact that they’ve spent billions of dollars increasing the size of the generation fleet, driving down overall utilization rates and increasing electricity prices as a result.”

   

References:

 

If Grid Utilization is Good, Wind and Solar Are Bad: Wind and solar advocates say we need to use the grid more efficiently—their own plans would do the opposite. Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling. Energy Bad Boys. August 29, 2026. If Grid Utilization is Good, Wind and Solar Are Bad