The EU is Right; Trump Should Not Have Waived Russian Oil Sanctions: They Are Bearing the Brunt of Iran War-Induced High Oil & Gas Prices and Still Oppose Appeasing Putin

  

 

    While I agree that the Iranian regime is horrible, its people deserve better, and we need to do something, the war is still quite risky. That risk is higher for people and countries in the region and for those more directly affected by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the drone targeting of commercial ships. China was proactive in stocking up on oil and refined products before the war began. Both Trump and the Iranian regime are hoping that Iranian oil sales to China can continue, although that could change if there is a battle for Kharg Island that ends with the bombing of oil facilities, which have so far been spared.

     Europe imports oil and LNG from the Persian Gulf region and is affected by the change in availability. Germany, France, Norway, and the UK have expressed dismay about Trump’s unilateral move to temporarily ease sanctions on Russian oil to ease the energy crisis.

Merz said: “We believe it is wrong to ease the sanctions. Unfortunately, Russia continues to show no willingness to negotiate. We will therefore, and must, further increase the pressure on Moscow.”

     Russia is actually aiding the Iranian regime with intelligence and working against the U.S. in that respect. Putin is perhaps glad that he is being useful for the world economy, but he is likely gladder to be adding a few billion or perhaps a few tens of billions to Russian war coffers by selling more oil and at a higher price. Now, there can be a few more months of meat-grinder assaults to gain a few meters of war-torn ground.

The US was “effectively acknowledging the obvious: without Russian oil, the global energy market cannot remain stable”, Russia’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, wrote on Telegram.

     That is not really true, but with supplies constrained, it should help to lower prices a bit. It is ironic and probably highly annoying to Ukraine that the U.S. would accept Russia’s help in alleviating oil prices but decline Ukraine’s offer to help with defense against Shahed drones, as I just read. Other countries in the region have sought Ukraine’s help in this regard. It was only a month previously that Trump had said India agreed not to buy Russian oil, and he stated that this would end the Ukraine war. The reprieve is only for 30 days, but it will be enough for Russia to reload a bit. Zelensky predicts it will add about $10 billion to Russian war coffers.

     The International Energy Agency’s plan to release 400 million barrels of oil from reserves, including 172 barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), should also help to ease global oil prices. The Waiver on Russian sales to India involves about 120-130 million barrels of oil that is currently at sea on ghost fleet tankers. Ghost fleet tankers continue to be interdicted and seized in European waters. Only a trickle of the previously estimated 20 million barrels per day is getting through the Strait at present.

"Six members of the G7 expressed a very clear opinion that this was not the right signal. We then learned this morning that the American government has apparently decided otherwise," ​Merz told a press conference in Norway.

"Again, we believe this is wrong. There is currently a price problem but not a quantity problem. And therefore, I would like to know ​what other motives led the American government to make this decision," he said.

     According to data analytics firm Vortexa, around 7.3 million barrels of Russia-originated oil are in floating storage, while 148.6 million barrels are in vessels in transit.

     Up to 420,000 metric tons of diesel and gasoil are currently in floating storage and could be available for sale in the market, according to LSEG ship-tracking data and trade sources.

     The Russian waiver applies to oil loaded on vessels at sea and is set to expire on April 11.

     The U.S. downplayed the importance of waiving the sanctioned Russian oil:

In a social media post, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "this narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, which derives the majority of its energy revenue from taxes assessed at the point of extraction."

        It was pointed out that the gains of the past year in pressuring Russia’s oil sales will be lost by the waiving of sanctions for even a month. This is due to the higher prices on the market now – about $30 higher than before the war began, adding about $150 million per day. Both Democrats and some Republicans in the U.S. Congress criticized the decisions to allow India to buy sanctioned Russian oil. Others fear the reprieve will be extended.

 

References:

 

US temporarily lifts sanctions on Russian oil transported by tankers. Ivan Diakonov. Ukrainska Pravda. March 12, 2026. US temporarily lifts sanctions on Russian oil transported by tankers

European allies riled as US loosens Russia oil sanctions. John Irish, Andreas Rinke and Dmitry Antonov. Reuters. March 13, 2026. European allies riled as US loosens Russia oil sanctions | Reuters

Europe rebukes US for temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil: German chancellor says decision is wrong and that pressure on Putin over Ukraine war should be increased. Peter Beaumont, Callum Jones, and Kate Connolly. The Guardian. March 13, 2026. Europe rebukes US for temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian 

Think Russian oil will calm the Iran conflict’s supply panic? Here’s what the math reveals. Myra P. Saefong. Market Watch. March 13, 2026. Think Russian oil will calm the Iran conflict’s supply panic? Here’s what the math reveals.

The plan behind Russian oil sanctions and why a reversal faces backlash. Keaton Peters. Straight arrow News. March 13, 2026. The plan behind Russian oil sanctions and why a reversal faces backlash