Robert Bryce: Five Reasons Not to Bomb Iran’s Power Plants

    As exemplified by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the bombing of civilian targets such as power plants is a war crime. While Ukraine bombs Russia’s energy production facilities that power and finance its war effort, Russia bombs Ukraine’s power plants to cause pain to the general population, i.e., civilians. They have bombed hydroelectric dams, natural gas production, coal plants, and natural gas plants, and many parts of the electricity grid, such as substations. It is an undignified way to conduct warfare. Ukraine is to be commended for avoiding similar behavior, although they come close at times. Russia does not play fair. Neither does Iran. That does not mean the U.S. should revert to such behavior.

     I have read Robert Bryce’s book, A Question of Power: Electricity and the wealth of Nations, which details the characteristics and the importance of power grids and access to electricity. He focused on different power grids in several places, their strengths and vulnerabilities.

     It should also be noted that power grids of different countries are often connected together. Just this week, Russia bombed out a power line connecting Ukraine and Moldova, through which Ukraine exported electricity to Moldova. As a result, Moldova is currently under a power emergency. I also know that Iran exports a significant amount of electricity to neighboring Iraq, although Iraq is in the process of moving away from that arrangement, in part by capturing natural gas at its oil fields to power natural gas plants. Thus, bombing Iran’s power grid could affect electricity access in Iraq. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran’s power plants and has received threats in return to bomb salinization plants in the Gulf states. Each is threatening war crimes.

     In a Substack post, Bryce gives five reasons why Trump should not bomb Iran’s power plants. The first is simply that power plants are not considered to be a legitimate military target, but civilian infrastructure. He also notes that doing so does not advance the stated war aims of degrading nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

     Secondly, bombing the power plants could result in mass civilian death since electricity powers and supplies necessities like freshwater, wastewater treatment, communications, and hospitals. This could create a humanitarian disaster.

     Third is simply that it invites tit-for-tat retaliation, which Iran can do with its drones, even if only 10% are getting through, against similar civilian infrastructure in targeted countries. Indeed after Trump made the threat, the Iranians proposed doing just that.

     Fourth, he notes, is that if the power infrastructure is bombed it could lead to the next rulers, friendly or not, being rendered unable to manage its society. He notes that Iran also exports electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

     Fifth, he cites what the University of Chicago’s Robert Pape calls the escalation trap, where the original attacker starts out with escalation dominance but without immediate success decides to escalate further and consider more risky approaches to achieve strategic goals.

     I don’t always agree with Bryce but I usually do and in this case I do as well.

  

 

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Don’t: Five reasons why Trump should not bomb Iran’s electric grid. Robert Bryce. Substack. March 22, 2026. Don't. - Robert Bryce