Turning Off Russian Oil and Gas Could Be the Key to Ending the War: Prices Be Damned

     Russia’s largest source of funding is its oil and gas industry. Its economic focus is on the war in Ukraine. Changes in oil pricing or the ability to sell it can mean much less money available to fund the war. Zelensky and other Ukrainian politicians have noted that the U.S. had asked them not to target Russia’s oil industry. It is unclear when this occurred and whether it was the Biden administration, the Trump administration, or both that made the request.

“Analysis from Reuters in February 2025 suggested that by that time in the conflict, Kyiv had knocked out about 10% of Russia’s oil refining capacity based on calculations from commodities traders. The attacks were having an impact on Russia’s war effort.”

     According to The Daily Digest:

“Following a devastating Russian strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Zelensky took to social media to inform the world the attack “happened right after Putin’s conversation with Trump" and after the US asked Ukraine "not to strike Russian energy facilities.”

“Hours after Zelensky’s remarks, Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko added more context and revealed that “some allies” had asked Ukraine not to strike Russia’s energy infrastructure despite Moscow’s repeated strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.”

     This certainly shows that it was Trump who made the ask recently. Trump has also argued against further sanctions on Russia because it could hurt the U.S. economy. One way it could do that is by increasing global oil prices, which can increase U.S. gasoline prices. Russia is a geographically vast country with many natural resources and resource-processing industries that are bought by much of the world.

     Zelensky described Russia's attacks combined with the requests not to attack Russian oil infrastructure as a “spit in the face.”

     Russian oil is bought by China, India, the UAE, and other countries at a nice discount, providing them with a great deal. Brazil is a major buyer of Russian diesel and oil products. These countries are benefitting financially from Russian sanctions and making those sanctions less effective in slowing the Russian war machine.  Has anyone asked Russia not to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure? The answer is no. Russia regularly targets power plants, oil infrastructure, hydroelectric plants, and more. It is no secret that Russian oil is the major funder of the country and its war effort. Why, then, would we not want to take out that source of funding?

     Again, according to the Daily Digest:

“According to the Kyiv Insider, Ukrainian officials and data from open-source intelligence assessments have revealed that Kyiv paused its attacks on Russian oil refineries in the 45 days leading up to the US election, but Kyiv resumed its attacks on election night.”

“The timing, while not officially acknowledged, suggests a political calculus: to avoid complicating the U.S. domestic environment while continuing a campaign that Ukraine sees as vital to weakening Russia’s war effort,” the Kyiv Insider explained.

     While I concur that the rise in oil & gas prices in 2022 sucked for consumers, especially in Europe, it helped out oil & gas producers, including in the U.S. who benefitted handsomely from the high prices. As new sources were found, those prices dropped back down. I believe we can do more to sanction Russian oil, and I am poor and more sensitive to high gasoline prices than most. Even so, it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make, as I was in 2022.

“But the public confirmation of these limits, especially in the face of continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, raises difficult questions about proportionality, deterrence, and the sustainability of long-term support,” the Kyiv Insider explained.

“Zelensky noted in his June 15th social media post that the “war would have ended long ago if the world had reacted with principle” and thanked those who were now pushing for “the necessary sanctions against Russian oil” and a proper price cap that would hurt Russia’s budget.’

     Once again, I agree strongly with Zelensky and the Ukrainians. The pariah nations Iran, North Korea, and Russia, often aligned and collaborative, must be weakened for the benefit of the free and civilized world. These militaristic human rights abusers should pay a price, up to their dismantling. This is best done with economic warfare through sanctions and sanctions enforcement. Unfortunately, sanctions enforcement is quite lacking as these criminal countries use old and dangerous ships, perform clandestine ship-to-ship transfers, turn off tracking devices, and use other methods of evasion to sell their products to fund their aggression. I also believe that even after a possible ceasefire, there should be no relenting on Russian sanctions. The reports of Trump and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff talking about economic deals with Russia after hostilities cease are not only premature, they are shocking. Will they buy Russian products made in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine? I mean, what the hell? 

 

 

References:

 

Zelensky reveals US asked Ukraine not to attack Russian oil industry. thedailydigest.com. June 18, 2025. Zelensky reveals US asked Ukraine not to attack Russian oil industry