This article gives three case studies of sub-Saharan
African critical minerals projects that would benefit immensely from fossil
fuel availability to process those minerals locally rather than shipping them
away for processing. The article cites a 2024 IMF report that 30% of the
world’s undeveloped critical minerals are contained in sub-Saharan Africa
(SSA). Mineral processing to any degree requires fossil fuels for thermal
energy and industrial chemicals. It requires the development of domestic
chemical and metallurgical industries. Such an effort would also require
workforce training and collaboration with advanced economies. Each of the three
cases is unique. This article focuses on an engineering-based analysis.
Case Study 1) Cobalt and Copper in the Democratic Republic
of the Congo (DRC)
The DRC is the world largest
mined cobalt producer and the second-largest producer of both mined and refined
copper, with 220 ktpy (thousand tons per year) of mined cobalt (75% of global
supply), 3,300 ktpy of mined copper (15% of global supply), and 2,500 ktpy of
copper metal (9% of global supply). Despite this vast mineral wealth, the DRC
is among the poorest countries in the world and has been suffering from
regional military conflict. DRC’s copper is already processed enough for
export, but there are opportunities to develop further processing of cobalt
into battery-grade cobalt sulfate, which is currently shipped out in the form
of unprocessed cobalt ore. Below are the processing steps that could be added
for cobalt: leaching, evaporation, and crystallization, and end products.
Those cobalt processing steps
require large thermal energy inputs. Those inputs, both electrical and
non-electrical (direct thermal), are shown below.
The non-electrical thermal
energy needs require fossil fuels. However, the DRC does not use natural gas or
coal. The DRC does produce about 25,000 Bbls of oil per day for export. That
comes offshore from the far west sliver of the country that intersects the
Atlantic Ocean. It would need port development and pipelines to bring oil to
the cobalt region. They could import natural gas and pipeline it to co-locate
it with cobalt processing facilities. Unfortunately, development finance
institutions have declined to invest in fossil fuel projects due to climate
concerns.
“A natural gas import terminal co-located with a cobalt
sulfate plant could be an effective pilot investment in the DRC. Nearby gas
power plants could also ensure that the cobalt sulfate plant and potential
future port developments have stable electricity access. Regardless of the
specific provisions, withholding fossil fuel investments in the DRC places
upper limits on economic development that no regional trade agreement or
creative financing method can remedy as effectively.”
Case Study 2) Aluminum and Alumina in Guinea
The West African country of
Guinea has the largest remaining reserves of bauxite aluminum ore in the world,
nearly three times as the next country, Indonesia. The country has one alumina
refinery, but it has operated inconsistently, and plans to open another much
larger plant in 2027 with help from Chinese investors. They are also building a
250MW power plant, presumably natural gas, to power the refinery. As seen in
the second figure below, electricity is the main energy input needed for the
plant. It can support the new refinery, but any further projects would require
more electricity and more fossil fuels. The country could utilize its abundant
hydropower for electricity, but it would need to build out more hydroelectric
plants and power transmission infrastructure. The smelters would also need coal
and oil to make the anodes for the smelters.
If Guinea could increase its
aluminum refining capacity, it could also refine gallium. Gallium is present in
bauxite ores. In Guinea, even though the percentage of gallium in the ore is
low, it could become a major global source if developed. China currently
produces 99% of the world’s gallium and has recently banned gallium exports to
the U.S.
“Gallium or not, a productive and vertically-integrated
aluminum supply chain in Guinea’s future is possible but is contingent on
increased fossil fuel access. Future expansions to alumina refining need fossil
fuels to supply process heat, and an aluminum smelter uses fossil fuels as
chemical feedstocks for carbon anodes. Moreover, the enormous electricity
demands of aluminum smelting requires considerable expansions to Guinea’s
generation of reliable electricity. A smelter’s electricity could be supplied
using local hydropower, but a realistic plan to grow Guinean industry around
clean electricity starts with using a non-negligible amount of petrochemicals.”
Case Study 3) Graphite in Mozambique
Mozambique was the world’s
second-largest graphite producer in 2023, with only one mine, begun in 2017, by
an Australian company. It produces minimally processed flake graphite
concentrate that is sent to Louisiana for final processing to be used for
anodes in American batteries. The power requirements for the next processing
steps, micronization and spheroidization, are lower than those for processing
other minerals.
Unfortunately, like the DRC,
Mozambique has been mired in regional conflicts, which closed the one mine in
late 2024. It is expected to restart soon, but six months of production will be
lost, and there is still uncertainty going forward.
Energy is Needed for Further Mineral Processing, and Fossil
Fuels Are Needed for Process Heat
The authors stress that
intermediate and final downstream processing steps for minerals often require
the most electricity, chemicals, and process heat. They also argue that “blanket
moratoriums on fossil fuel infrastructure” are not necessary and only serve
to hurt those countries. Globally, China dominates downstream minerals
processing to a high degree. That domination discourages competition since they
have established relationships with end-users. Chemicals would need to be
imported as well. The DRC would have to import sulfur and sulfuric acid for
cobalt processing, Guinea would have to import caustic soda and lime for
bauxite processing, and Mozambique would have to import machinery from China to
micronize and spheroidize graphite, since China does 99% of that globally.
Training local laborers will also be a challenge to developing these
industries.
“To be sure, African countries should endeavor to
substitute fossil fuels with clean alternatives wherever possible. Already, the
continent is poised to develop industries using far cleaner pathways than those
taken by existing industry in developed countries today. But there are
immutable technological and economic limitations on the extent to which
petrochemical substitutions can occur, especially amidst the intense
competition of commodity markets. Both electrical and thermal energy
infrastructure are vital prerequisites for countries in sub-Saharan Africa to
truly take advantage of their mineral resources. And failure to pragmatically
acknowledge the need for fossil fuels for modern economic growth risks
jeopardizing both African development and the clean energy transition at large.”
The minerals are there to be
produced, and the ability to process them should be developed and optimized as
much as possible and practical, but it can’t happen without more electricity
and more fossil fuels.
References:
Sub-Saharan
Africa Needs Fossil Fuels to Process Its Critical Minerals. Ryan Alimento and
Seaver Wang. Breakthrough Institute. June 4, 2025. Sub-Saharan
Africa Needs Fossil Fuels to… | The Breakthrough Institute
Regional
Economic Outlook. Analytical Note. Sub-Saharan
Africa. International Monetary Fund. Digging for Opportunity: Harnessing Sub-Saharan
Africa’s Wealth in Critical Minerals. April 2024. MineralsNote.pdf
Chinese
firm to build Guinea’s biggest alumina processing plant. Bloomberg News. January
2, 2025. Chinese
firm to build Guinea’s biggest alumina processing plant - MINING.COM
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