U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Actually Performed Well During Winter Storm Fern and Atlantic Ocean Winter Wind Capacity Remains Predictably Strong

     While average capacity factors for wind energy, including offshore wind energy, are typically much lower than thermal plants on average (low 30s % for wind and high 50s % for combined cycle natural gas), they may be high during certain time periods. That was the case during the recent Winter Storm Fern cold snap. This means that offshore wind performed exceptionally well during this period. Offshore wind speeds are typically stronger than those onshore. Of course, there is significant variability in wind generation through the day and through the seasons. Just because it performed well during this cold spell doesn’t necessarily mean that it will perform well during the next one. Even so, there is still enough predictability in wind generation to say that it likely would perform adequately. In fact, the U.S. Northeast region is known to have excellent winter wind energy capacity, which will lead to generally predictable high capacity factors during the winter. These facts should be taken into account by the Trump administration in evaluating support for all the Atlantic Ocean wind projects, several of which they have sought to stop cold.

     While it is true that the Northeast region needs more natural gas pipelines, it can also benefit from these offshore wind farms, although the costs to build gas pipelines and power plants would provide much better-performing energy systems overall, at a lower cost, and without subsidization. The reality is that the region would benefit from both energy sources. Offshore wind would put the most pressure on government subsidies and consumer prices. Thus, that is a good reason to want to limit it to some extent.

     Data from Orsted’s 135MW South Fork Wind Project offshore New York calculated an average annual net capacity factor of 46.4 %. That is very good for wind energy. The data below is from July 2024, when the project came online, to July 2025. It shows very high capacity factors during late fall, winter, and early spring, often well over 50% and approaching 60%. That is indeed comparable to natural gas combined cycle capacity factors. However, the low capacity factors during the summer, particularly in August and September, mean that it won’t be very helpful during high power demand during extremely hot weather. 

     According to Mikkel Mæhlisen, Head of Operations, Ørsted:

“South Fork Wind’s exceptional first-year performance puts it on par with our top-performing facilities globally, confirming that the Northeast United States has some of the most exceptional offshore wind resources in the world.”

     An interesting analysis in Canary Media shows that a new power line just activated to bring more than 1GW of power from Quebec ended up keeping it for themselves and even reversing a transmission line to send power to Canada. They will likely be fined for inadequacy according to contracts. This certainly shows that importing Canadian hydropower may not be an effective solution for the region. One inadequate solution that has been used for years is burning diesel fuel oil when natural gas becomes unavailable. Another solution that can have small impacts is expanding demand response. Though often touted as a solution, it is not likely to result in that much drawdown of power demand. It is useful but probably over-hyped.

     Wind did perform well. During one overnight period, more than 1.5 gigawatts of wind power, ISO-New England reported that roughly 10% of New England’s total load was feeding into the grid. The Vineyard Wind project offshore Massachusetts, not yet complete but currently generating power into the grid, helped in that regard. ISO-New England does not differentiate between offshore and onshore wind, so it is unknown how much offshore wind was generated. According to Liz Burdock, president and CEO of Oceantic Network, during Winter Storm Fern, Vineyard Wind had a 75% capacity factor. That’s pretty amazing and certainly rivals most baseload power.

     Another commentator noted that the high wind capacity factors can keep power prices from spiking and reduce oil burning. Of course, allowing more natural gas into the region can do the same thing, and I believe both should be done. More offshore wind projects coming online according to their timelines would be very helpful for winter power reliability in the region. The Trump administration has imperiled that by stopping the projects, although judicial decisions have resulted in many of those projects being reinstated. They plan to appeal those decisions. A few other projects are likely to be scrapped.

     I think it is good news for the region that the wind energy capacity is very strong, especially in the winter, and I think it bodes well for East Coast wind projects in general. I think that, ideally, and likely after the Trump administration is history, subsidization at smaller levels and other project support should return, especially if these high winter utilization rates hold up, which is expected.

 

 

 

References:

 

Offshore wind showed up big during the East Coast’s brutal cold. Maria Gallucci. Grist. February 14, 2026. Offshore wind showed up big during the East Coast’s brutal cold

Energy That Works. South Fork Wind. Orsted. September 2025. sfwreport_web_vf.pdf

What is Generation Capacity? U.S. DOE. March 30, 2025. What is Generation Capacity? | Department of Energy

What is the capacity factor of a wind turbine? Opoura. June 27, 2025. What is the capacity factor of a wind turbine? - Opoura

The 4 lessons New England’s grid can learn from Winter Storm Fern. Sarah Shemkus. Canary Media. January 3, 2026. The 4 lessons New England’s grid can learn from Winter… | Canary Media