Since the U.S. has been
controlling Venezuelan oil sales, there is less Venezuelan oil in tankers at
sea, and not likely to be more of it. Thus, it is Iranian and Russian crude
that is being transported on sanctions-busting ghost tankers. It is believed
that there are as many as 1,400 of these ghost tankers in operation, although
their ability to offtake oil has been eroded. It should be eroded further if a
recent agreement between the Trump administration and Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi holds. If India stops buying Russian crude, that leaves China as
the main buyer. China is also a major customer for sanctioned Iranian
oil.
Bloomberg has long been
tracking weekly global Russian oil exports. The latest figure from the first week of
February shows oil still being shipped at similar amounts as before, although
the amount has dropped by over 500,000 barrels per day since before Christmas.
However, it also appears that more and more oil is becoming stranded at
sea. The amount of seaborne Russian crude remains above 3 million
barrels per day. Modi and Trump reportedly reached a deal that called for India
to stop buying sanctioned Russian crude.
“Shipments to India have fallen to less than half their
peak level and could fall further even if New Delhi doesn’t fully halt the
trade. Deliveries to Indian ports have averaged about 1 million barrels a day
in the first six weeks of the year and stood at just 900,000 barrels a day in
the first full week of February. That compares with a peak of more than 2
million barrels a day in June and July 2023.
It is estimated that exports
to India will drop by half from January levels by April. China has apparently
taken up the slack, increasing its imports of Russian crude and reducing the
amount at sea. The amount of Russian crude at sea has been increasing steadily
since the fall of 2025 and is currently just below its peak of 140 million
barrels.
The graph below shows that
the value of Russian exports has continued to drop overall, but the most recent
rise is due to Middle East tensions, which is putting a floor on those prices.
Russian gross oil sales still remain above $1 billion per week.
“Vessels are also spending longer at sea, with several
tankers diverting from initial destinations on the west coast of India or in
Turkey. They are also getting held up waiting to discharge at Chinese and
Indian ports.”
Below, it is noted that
exports to Asia, both India and China, are dropping fast. However, that trend
could be reversed a bit for China if it buys more Russian crude that is out to
sea. Flows to Turkey have also dropped. Turkey is the region’s highest importer
of Russian crude at just under 200,000 barrels a day on average, although that
is half of what it imported in mid-2025.
An article in The Telegraph
by Tom Sharpe notes that these ghost fleet tankers are generally poorly
maintained, unsafely operated, and seldom insured. They damage undersea
infrastructure such as communications cables, which the Russians certainly are
doing on purpose. They also pollute more than other tankers and risk a major
uninsured environmental disaster. They often switch off their transponders so
they can’t be tracked, make clandestine ship-to-ship oil transfers, and switch
flags often, making ownership uncertain. The article suggests that as many as
100 are basically adrift at sea, without crews, but loaded with product.
“In 2025 some 6,000 seafarers on 410 vessels were left
without pay or provisions. Trading companies believe there to be at least 100
vessels now at sea without even a crew, drifting with whatever cargo they had
when they were abandoned – typically crude oil but possibly something even
nastier like ammonia – and waiting for a current to wash them up on a beach or
coral reef.”
He notes that international
law makes policing the sea complicated. International law does provide for a
warship to board a stateless vessel, which was apparently the case with the
boarding and seizure of the vessel Bella 1 off the coast of Iceland recently.
He notes that the U.S. has conducted eight other seizures since then, six
involving Venezuelan crude. France, Finland, Germany, and Estonia have also
conducted enforcement actions, including detention or seizure.
The newest EU sanctions
package:
“…includes a full ban on maritime services for Russian
crude oil exports. So far, it has just been ships, entities and individuals
that have been sanctioned: this package is looking at sanctioning entire ports
as well. It’s a belated acknowledgement that the original sanctions plan is no
longer working and that tougher measures are now required.”
“The measures may never happen, however, with Greece and
Malta stalling progress during an EU ambassadors’ meeting on 9 February. Other
countries’ positions vary: Cyprus cites generic maritime worries, whilst Baltic
states like Estonia push for tougher enforcement. As ever, the political
alignment required to bring all these moving parts together both legally and
operationally is proving elusive.”
“Even the relatively aggressive US campaign of seizures
has been very limited, and all in all the problem of the dark fleet and the
flow of oil money to Moscow and Tehran has barely been acknowledged, let alone
tackled. Putin and the mullahs are gaming the system, and innocent people in
Ukraine and Iran are suffering as a result. The oceans are full of unsafe,
unregulated ships, often enough adrift without crews.”
“We must do better.”
I certainly agree with that.
Meanwhile, as of a few days
ago, it appears that India has entered the enforcement fray, seizing three
tankers carrying sanctioned Iranian crude. The Indian Coast Guard led the
operation that intercepted three tankers in the Arabian Sea.
According to Morning
Overview:
“Investigators say sustained inspections, electronic
data checks and crew questioning exposed a sophisticated network that used
deceptive shipping practices to hide cargo origin and destination, with links
pointing back to Iran. By physically seizing the ships rather than issuing
warnings, India signals that its coastline will not be a permissive corridor
for sanctioned flows, a stance that could reshape routing decisions for dozens
of similar tankers now weighing the risk of entering the Arabian Sea.”
While it is great that India
is enforcing international law with regard to Iranian ghost tankers, it is
hoped that it will do the same with Russian tankers. The enforcement action
does suggest that India is aligning more with Western calls to enforce the
sanctions.
The U.S. noted yesterday that
it interdicted a vessel in the Indian Ocean that defied Trump’s quarantine.
"Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit,
maritime interdiction and boarding of the Veronica III without incident in the
INDOPACOM area of responsibility," it said in a post on X.
The ship was tracked from the
Caribbean. Thus, I would assume it to be loaded with Venezuelan crude.
References:
Putin’s
war chest drained by big discounts that keep oil flowing. Julian Lee.
Bloomberg. February 10, 2026. Putin’s war chest drained by big
discounts that keep oil flowing
There
are more than a thousand rogue tankers at sea. Many don’t even have crews. Tom
Sharpe. The Telegraph. February 11, 2026. There are more than a thousand rogue
tankers at sea. Many don’t even have crews
India
seizes 3 oil tankers in first strike on dark fleet. Rowan Calder. Morning
Overview. February 11, 2026. India seizes 3 oil tankers in first
strike on dark fleet
US
says it interdicted and boarded vessel defying Trump's quarantine. Department
of War via X. Reuters. February 15, 2026. US
says it interdicted and boarded vessel defying Trump's quarantine
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