Is There a Detectable Acceleration of Global Warming? Some Data Suggests That There Is

       Some climate scientists are saying there is clearly a detectable acceleration of global warming in the data. It seems to be the case regarding land surface temperature data. Sea surface temperature data also seems to indicate an acceleration, though significantly smaller than the land surface temperature data.  However, I do not believe the satellite-derived tropospheric temperature data show an acceleration.

“There is greater acceptance now that there is a detectable acceleration of warming,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the research lead at the payments company Stripe.

    John Muyskens and Shannon Osaka of the Washington Post examined NASA’s climate data and confirmed what they see as a global warming acceleration. According to their analysis, from 1970 to 2010, the land and ocean surface temperatures warmed by 0.19 deg Celsius per decade, but during the past decade they warmed at a rate of 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade. They also think that a 40% global reduction in sulfate aerosol emissions has led to lower global warming since atmospheric sulfate aerosol emissions dropped by 40% since the mid-2000s, The graph below from Carbon Brief shows that since 1880 aerosols have cooled the atmosphere by as much as 0.7 deg Celsius by around 2008, but since then the drop in those aerosols has warmed it back up by about 0.2 degrees. Thus, the total cooling since 1880 is now at about 0.5 degrees Celsius. Sulfate aerosols mask global warming by cooling the atmosphere, and when their level drops, the atmosphere heats up. The phasing out of high-sulfur fuels for shipping in 2020 has accelerated the drop in atmospheric sulfate aerosols.

     Decreases in low-level cloud cover are also thought to be contributing to global warming. However, they also note the uncertainty of the effects of low-level cloud cover. Thus, some warming is attributable to drops in aerosols and some to drops in low-level cloud cover. Untangling or attributing how much warming comes from each effect is difficult and uncertain.

     Below are graphs of some of NASA’s land and ocean surface temperature data. As can be seen, there is a likely acceleration seen in land surface temperature data and a possible acceleration in ocean surface temperature data. Others argue that land surface temperature data may be biased by such things as heat island effects. They say that the lack of equivalent warming in tropospheric temperature data supports that position.

     While some climate scientists think it is too soon to declare an acceleration of global warming, others say the signal is clearly there. A 2025 paper in Earth System Science Data attempts to attribute global warming to each source, concluding that the bulk is due to human activities, namely energy, industrial processes, agriculture, and waste.

References:

 

Scientists thought they understood global warming. Then the past three years happened. John Muyskens and Shannon Osaka. Washington Post. February 11, 2026. Scientists thought they understood global warming. Then the past three years happened.

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Christophe Cassou, Mathias Hauser, Zeke Hausfather, June-Yi Lee, Matthew D. Palmer, Karina von Schuckmann, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Sophie Szopa, Blair Trewin, Jeongeun Yun, Nathan P. Gillett, Stuart Jenkins, H. Damon Matthews, Krishnan Raghavan, Aurélien Ribes, Joeri Rogelj, Debbie Rosen, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Lara Aleluia Reis, Robbie M. Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Jiddu A. Broersma, Samantha N. Burgess, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Catia M. Domingues, Marco Gambarini, Thomas Gasser, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Aurélien Liné, Didier P. Monselesan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Jan C. Minx, Matthew Rigby, Robert Rohde, Abhishek Savita, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Peter Thorne, Christopher Wells, Luke M. Western, Guido R. van der Werf, Susan E. Wijffels, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai. Earth System Science Data. Volume 17, issue 6. ESSD, 17, 2641–2680, 2025. ESSD - Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4). NASA. Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Data.GISS: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (v4): Analysis Graphs and Plots

Explainer: How human-caused aerosols are ‘masking’ global warming. Zeke Hausfather. Carbon Brief. October 6, 2025. Explainer: How human-caused aerosols are ‘masking’ global warming - Carbon Brief