In line with other extreme
cold events in the U.S., over the past several years, Winter Storm Fern led to significant freeze-offs of
natural gas wells, resulting in shut-in production. According to Wood
Mackenzie’s Daniel Myers, the storm and cold resulted in a loss of 18.3 BCF/day
of natural gas production at its peak on January 26. That is nearly 17% of
total U.S. natural gas production. This shows that parts of the country, such
as the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, are still quite vulnerable
to freeze-offs. The Haynesville region in Northern Louisiana and East Texas
also encountered significant gas well freeze-offs. He notes that 3 BCF/day is
still offline, more than two weeks later.
Myers writes:
“The geographic spread tells its own story of widespread
vulnerability. The Permian Basin saw nearly half of all freeze-offs with 8.8
bcfd shut in. But perhaps more telling was the record-breaking
5.1 bcfd of losses in Northern Louisiana and East Texas, about 28% of
production in the region, which outperformed estimates due to freezing rain and
icy conditions.”
“The industry didn't completely collapse like it did
during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Winterisation efforts, better
preparation, and the absence of major power outages all helped prevent an even
more catastrophic scenario.”
He cautions, however, that
simply narrowly avoiding a disaster should not be the goal, but that
winterization efforts in those vulnerable regions should continue and prevent a
similar or worse situation if and when another such polar vortex dips into the
U.S. South.
References:
Winter
Storm Fern shuts in 18.3 bcfd of US gas production at its peak: Cumulative
freeze-offs projected to exceed 120 bcf, ranking among the most impactful
winter events in recent memory. Daniel Myers. Wood Mackenzie. February 5, 2026.
Winter
Storm Fern shuts in 18.3 bcfd of US gas production at its peak | Wood Mackenzie
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