The Gas Turbine Crunch May Be Easing, but There Are Still Significant Supply Chain Constraints on Gas Power Projects

      Right now, there is still a wait, up to four or even five years, to get a gas turbine. In 2021, the wait was just two years. However, that wait is about to begin easing as manufacturing output increases. According to investment bank Jefferies, gas turbines are “increasingly not the primary bottleneck” for large loads seeking power. The three big gas turbine manufacturers in the U.S. are GE Vernova, Siemens. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, each announced increasing manufacturing capacity since the beginning of 2025.

     According to Utility Dive:

“We expect at least 19 GW of total available equipment capacity by 2028, increasing to 49 [GW] and 76 GW by 2029 and 2030,” Jefferies said. The company still expects “the key large-frame turbine OEMs to be over 90% booked for 2028 and over 70% booked for 2029, while [behind-the-meter] OEMs are likely 65% and ~33% booked for the same timeframe.”

      The higher available capacity for behind-the-meter (BTM) applications bodes well for AI data centers. While many are utilizing internal combustion engines burning natural gas, turbines are more efficient. Jeffries expects BTM deployments to grow by 25 GW by 2030. They expect BTM to be a “bridge solution” that could last up to a decade, but cheaper and lower-maintenance grid power would be preferred.

“While we continue to argue that in the long-term, large loads will prioritize cheaper, reliable grid power (now 5-7 years away), we also acknowledge that it is possible to remain off-grid for longer,” the Jefferies analysis said. “A gas reciprocating engine, which can last 40-80k+ hours before first major maintenance, can support a data center for +11 years running at 80% capacity factor, longer with batteries.”

     The bottleneck in gas turbines has been well explained. Manufacturers were hesitant to increase capacity over the past few decades due to no real demand growth for power generation. That has changed over the past few years as AI data center buildout has expanded significantly.

     Siemens announced plans to spend $1 billion and add 1500 jobs in gas turbine manufacturing. Mitsubishi announced plans to double its gas turbine production over the next two years. GE Vernova announced plans to spend $600 million, add 1500 jobs, and deliver up to 80 heavy-duty turbines per year, up from an average of about 51 per year in the five years from 2021 to 2025. According to Wood Mackenzie’s Ed Crooks, the consultancy forecast is that the US will add about 63 GW of gas-fired generation capacity, including combined-cycle plants, peaking plants, and coal plant conversions, by 2030. That is more than double the capacity added over the previous five years. They also point out that coal plant retirement delays will keep more baseload power available to the grid, helping to meet power demand growth. However, it is unclear how much of that coal power will actually be used. He notes that coal plants will benefit from higher power prices, making them more economical. Meanwhile, many data centers are being powered by reciprocating ICE engines burning natural gas and, in some cases, diesel. Diesel is a dirty form of energy for mass use since it puts out large amounts of fine particulate matter.

“The latest Wood Mackenzie data show that US utilities already have at least 178 GW of new large loads either committed or already under construction, with more than 450 GW more known but currently uncommitted.”

     That is a lot of gigawatts.

  

 

References:

 

Natural gas equipment bottleneck is easing, analysts say: Manufacturers GE Vernova, Siemens and Mitsubishi “have all announced significant capacity expansions since the start of last year,” said Wood Mackenzie’s Ed Crooks. Diana DiGangi. Utility Dive. February 24, 2026. Natural gas equipment bottleneck is easing, analysts say | Utility Dive

Supply chain constraints limit the growth of gas-fired generation in the US: Renewables and storage, and slower retirements of coal plants, are needed to meet rising demand. Ed Crooks. Wood Mackenzie. February 20, 2025. Supply chain constraints limit the growth of gas-fired generation in the US | Wood Mackenzie