Grid Utilization Rates Fall When Wind and Solar Rise: Build More, Use Less, Pay More is the Result

      Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling in the Energy Bad Boys Substack refute the arguments made by Jigar Shah and others that it is only the lack of transmission that is impeding grid utilization rates, when that is only a part of the picture. Obviously, wind and solar resources are impeded by their intermittency, which is quite significant, as well as the limits on their capacity factors (solar up to about 24% and wind up to about 34%). For comparison, the avg. capacity factor for natural gas is in the high 50s percent, but would be much higher if those same resources were not used to back up renewables and then be taken offline when the renewables are available. Thus, it stands to reason that those natural limits on utilization virtually guarantee lower utilization rates for renewables, whether enough transmission is available or not.

     A couple of months ago I wrote about a study Jigar Shah was promoting, where computer simulations were showing that 300GW of existing transmission could be tapped since it was often not being used. I stated then that it would be great if that were true, but I was skeptical. They cite a similar study by Tyler Norris of Duke University that concluded that:

“…that nearly 100 GW of large new loads could be integrated with minimal impact if large electricity users temporarily reduce consumption during periods of grid stress by shifting workloads, utilizing on-site generation, or adjusting operations.”

     As the graph below shows, U.S. grid utilization has fallen steadily since it peaked in 1999 at 53.7% and fell to a record low of 39.4% in 2025.

     There is more proof in the graph below, which shows that since 1990, total installed capacity on the grid grew by 77%, but net generation only grew by 46%. However, it is mainly another way to show that grid utilization has dropped due to lower capacity factor generation growing on the grid.

     The graph below shows the relationship of price to grid utilization and installed capacity.

     Next, they go through the Net Zero America (NZA) study from Princeton University authored by Tyler Norris and Jesse Jenkins. They note that Jenkins was one of the biggest proponents of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). They note that the modeling in the study is highly dependent on using excess electricity to make green hydrogen.

“Importantly, the modeled NZA electricity generation growth figures are inflated by the model’s use of excess electricity to generate “green hydrogen.” This assumption then props up the fleet-wide utilization rates in the graphs below at around 30 percent, but it does so by assuming a massive increase in a technology that is collapsing around the globe.”

     The graph below shows how much each of the two scenarios: 1) E+ High Electrification and 2) E+RE+ (100 percent renewable) depends on green hydrogen production. The 100% renewable scenario is especially highly dependent on green hydrogen.

     The graph below models grid utilization rates under both scenarios from the study, compared to peak utilization and today's utilization rate. The E+ scenario would result in a 26% to 29% grid utilization rate depending on whether green hydrogen was made or not. The E+RE+ scenario would result in a 17% grid utilization rate with no green hydrogen and a 29% grid utilization rate with green hydrogen.

     Finally, they note that if there were no wind and solar on the grid over the years, the grid utilization rate would have remained high at 52%, which is just another way of saying wind and solar bring grid utilization rates down, which should be obvious to anyone who studies energy and electricity by now.

     They conclude:

“Overall grid utilization is falling in the United States because we added approximately 312,000 MW of wind and solar resources during a two-decade period when demand was essentially flat—which is also a great explanation on why prices have increased as much as they have.”

“Now that demand is surging again, the wind and solar advocates are using load factor as a red herring to hide the fact that they’ve spent billions of dollars increasing the size of the generation fleet, driving down overall utilization rates and increasing electricity prices as a result.”

   

References:

 

If Grid Utilization is Good, Wind and Solar Are Bad: Wind and solar advocates say we need to use the grid more efficiently—their own plans would do the opposite. Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling. Energy Bad Boys. August 29, 2026. If Grid Utilization is Good, Wind and Solar Are Bad