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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Hoover Institution’s John Cochrane’s Argument Against a 5% Billionaire Wealth Tax is Bunk: It’s Not Envy but Our Sense of Fairness That Supports a Wealth Tax


     While I often agree with the work and conclusions of the Hoover Institution’s fellows, that is not always the case. I find Economist John Cochrane’s argument against a 5% billionaire wealth tax to be weak and ineffective. The 5% tax was proposed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna, two far-left politicians with whom I often disagree. I may agree with taxing billionaires 5%, but I likely would not agree with these two politicians’ plans for using the proceeds.

     Cochrane argues that such a tax would shift capital from investment to consumption, since billionaires have the bulk of their money not in cash, but in investments. This is true, but it is also true that consumption also stimulates investment. Thus, his first argument is that it would disincentivize investment. According to Forbes, there are 989 billionaires in the U.S., or .00029% of Americans. Thus, it would be a tax, not on the 1% as Bernie likes to say, but on the .00029%. Billionaires’ money is mostly invested in their own companies. For Elon Musk, that is Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, the Boring Company, Twitter/X, PayPal, OpenAI, Neuralink, and many others.

     Cochrane is a bit audacious to say that “inflation adds another wealth tax.” This is true, but it is a truly minuscule percentage of billionaires’ income compared to the average person or the poor person who actually buys less, drives less, and goes without some things due to inflation.

     Cochrane argues that a wealth tax would take away billionaires’ ability to take risks and that such risk-taking has been a boon to our economy in the past.

High-risk investments is what produced America’s prosperity. Low-risk, low-reward, small-scale European investments produced European stagnation.”

     There may be some truth to that, but Europe is certainly not a place where poverty is prevalent.

Redirecting that wealth to social spending lowers national investment and raises national consumption dollar for dollar.”

     So does any government tax on anyone. Cochrane seems to be echoing Elon Musk’s boast that his own value is that he is an expert at allocating capital. His high purchase price of Twitter, or X, turns that argument on its head.

     Below, he argues that such a tax would result in growth of tax avoidance schemes. That is true, but we can work to close such loopholes. I would say to the billionaires: “Do your national duty and pay your taxes without trying to hide your money, like the rest of us do.”

Avoidance. Elon Musk’s $42 billion proposed tax bill would pay for a lot of tax lawyers, accountants, and lobbyists. What do they do? Take businesses private, argue with the IRS about what they’re really worth, hide individual ownership and value in complex cross-linkages, trusts, and LLCs.”

In fact, structuring businesses to avoid taxes rather than generate profit might be the most insidious effect of high taxation.”

     He also rails against the estate tax, which he says is also a wealth tax. I am not competent to evaluate that, but it does seem a bit high as he states it.

     He finishes his rant with the following:

The wealth tax is not about economics at all. It’s about envy. It’s about destroying the billionaires. And it’s about grabbing their supposed political power for the benefit of the government.

They want to get rid of the billionaires, even if we get rid of the companies and economy that they created.”

     I do not believe that is true. It is not about envy, but it is about fairness. Neuroscientists sometimes say we have a built-in “sense” of fairness. Billionaires really stress that sense, and we see it as unfair. While it may be true that leftists and socialists are indeed envious of billionaires and some want to hurt the rich more than to help the poor, most of us are not like that. Helping the poor is far more important than harming the rich. A little taxation, a tweak of our mixed economy, which is not unfettered capitalism, but capitalism with some regulation of its wealth effects through mechanisms like taxation, does not result from envy but fairness.

     The world’s total wealth is estimated to be about $600 trillion. When one human (Musk) among 8.3 billion people can have 0.167% of the total wealth of the world, the obscenity of the super-wealthy is on display. Defending such unfairness, as Cochrane seems to do, is an affront to our sense of fairness. Tax them!

    

 

References:

 

The Hidden Cost of a Federal Wealth Tax: How a 5% tax on billionaire wealth could weaken investment, encourage tax avoidance, and reduce future economic growth. John H. Cochrane. The Grumpy Economist Weekly Rant. Hoover Institution. September 9, 2026. The Hidden Cost of a Federal Wealth Tax

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