According to Wikipedia, the Kaya identity is defined as
follows:
“The Kaya identity is a mathematical identity stating
that the total emission level of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide can be
expressed as the product of four factors: human population, GDP per capita,
energy intensity (per unit of GDP), and carbon intensity (emissions per unit of
energy consumed). It is a concrete form of the more general I = PAT equation
relating factors that determine the level of human impact on climate.”
The Kaya identity was
developed by Japanese energy economist Yoichi Kaya. The I=PAT formula for
environmental impact was developed by biologist Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren,
both of whom can be regarded as catastrophists based on their wildly wrong
predictions about population and climate refugees, respectively.
I = P × A × T
“The expression equates human impact on the environment
to a function of three factors: population (P), affluence (A) and technology
(T). It is similar in form to the Kaya identity, which applies specifically to
emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.”
The Kaya identity is expressed in
the form:
Where:
F is global CO2 emissions from human sources
P is global population
G is world GDP
E is global energy consumption
And:
G/P is the GDP per capita
E/G is the energy intensity of the GDP
F/E is the emission intensity of energy
The global population is expected to
peak at around 10.3 billion people in the 2080s, according to the latest
estimates, although there are some predictions of a peak as early as 2064. GDP
per capita continues to rise every year. Both energy intensity and carbon
emissions intensity have continued to drop steadily every year.
Below is a graph of the parameters from
1965 through 2023, followed by the same graph run for the past 25 years, from
1998 through 2023.
Source: Our World in Data
Source: Our World in Data
References:
Kaya
identity. Wikipedia. Kaya
identity - Wikipedia
I=PAT.
Wikipedia. I = PAT -
Wikipedia
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