Energy Sec. Wright Threatens to Abandon IEA as ‘Unrealistically Green,’ Prefers Reform

    While I agree with Wright that the IEA is probably ‘unrealistically green,’ most member countries are OK with the activities of the agency. I criticized its forecast that oil demand had peaked, although the length of the peak may last a long time, and there is little chance of oil demand dropping anytime soon. I also criticized IEA’s overly bullish forecasts for hydrogen development, which I believe are way off the mark. Once again, the U.S. under Trump is being the ‘odd man out’ by threatening to abandon its participation unless the agency is reformed. I do understand Wright’s concern since I have been annoyed by longtime IEA chief Fatih Birol’s calls to transition away from fossil fuels faster than is reasonable.  

     According to Wikipedia:

“The core activity of the IEA is providing policy advice to its member states and Associated countries to support their energy security and advance their transition to clean energy. Recently, it has focused in particular on supporting global efforts to accelerate clean energy transition, mitigate climate change, reach net zero emissions, and prevent global temperatures from rising above 1.5 °C. All IEA member countries have signed the Paris Agreement {U.S. is back out} which aims to limit warming to 1.5 °C, and two thirds of IEA member governments have made commitments to emission neutrality by 2050.”

     Wright said that he had been in contact with Fatih Birol and that he would prefer that IEA reforms, presumably to give more credence to the world’s dependence on fossil fuels.

“We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during an interview Tuesday. “My strong preference is to reform it.”

The IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak this decade is “just total nonsense,” he noted.

     According to Bloomberg:

“Senator John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican, who said {last year} the IEA has become an “energy transition cheerleader” and that its modeling of long-term energy demand was skewed and “no longer provides policymakers with balanced assessments of energy and climate proposals.”

     Most of the criticism of the IEA in the past was the reverse, that the agency was underestimating the development of renewables. I do not think the U.S. should have more influence in the agency than other countries. Thus, I think that any reform efforts should be approved by a majority of those countries. I don’t think the U.S. should be able to mold the IEA to its will. It is probably being too pushy to demand reform, 'or else.’

     OPEC has strongly criticized IEA forecasts for oil demand as dangerous, saying that they expect demand to keep rising to 2050 from 105 million barrels per day today to 123 million barrels per day in 2050. In contrast, the IEA forecasted that oil demand will begin to decline around 2030.

     In June 2025, the agency doubled down on its predictions for oil demand to peak. In its 2025 report, the agency stated that China’s demand was a big factor in its predictions.

“While China – the world’s top crude oil importer – accounted for 60% of the global increase in oil consumption in 2015-2024, “the picture to 2030 looks very different,” the IEA said.  

“China’s demand is on track to peak in 2027 – two years earlier than previously thought – amid “an extraordinary surge in EV sales, the continued deployment of trucks running on liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as strong growth in the country’s high-speed rail network, along with structural shifts in its economy.” 

   

 

References:

 

International Energy Agency. Wikipedia. International Energy Agency - Wikipedia

US Threatens to Abandon IEA Over Green-Leaning Energy Forecasts. Ari Natter. Bloomberg. July 15, 2025. US Threatens to Abandon IEA Over Green-Leaning Energy Forecasts

U.S. Vows to Quit IEA if the Agency Keeps Pushing Green Transition. Charles Kennedy. Oilprice.com. July 16, 2025. U.S. Vows to Quit IEA if the Agency Keeps Pushing Green Transition | OilPrice.com

IEA Doubles Down On Peak Oil Demand Forecast. Michael Kern. Oilprice.com. June 17, 2025. IEA Doubles Down On Peak Oil Demand Forecast | OilPrice.com