How Much LNG Can the U.S. Ultimately Export Per Day? FIDs Are in Place for 30BCF/day of Total Export Capacity by 2031

     Several years ago, in early 2019, I incorrectly predicted that the U.S. would only be able to export about 15 BCF/day of LNG. Since then, more gas has been found, drilling efficiency has improved, well production has improved, and reserve estimates have increased significantly. My early assessment considered the possible depletion of gas fields but did not consider other sources such as the massive amounts of non-associated gas produced from oil wells, particularly in the Permian Basin. Right now, in mid-2025, the U.S is exporting 12 BCF/day, within my early predictions. The current export capacity is a little higher. However, final investment decisions (FIDs) have been made on an additional 18 BCF/day of capacity, with all of that new supply expected to be online by 2031, which calculates to 30BCF of export capacity by then. Actual exports will be less than the total export capacity.

     Exporting this much LNG in addition to meeting the demand growth expected to power the growth in AI data centers means that more gas will need to be produced and more wells will be drilled, likely a few thousand more per year. As the core areas of each bench in each play are developed, there may be some depletion issues that arise over the next decade or two. It may get more expensive and require more wells or lateral footage to produce the same amount of natural gas.

     Below are some statuses of select LNG projects by RBN Energy:

     RBN Energy’s Lindsay Schneider notes:

“…there is now nearly 80 MMtpa (10.6 Bcf/d) of LNG capacity under construction or commissioning in the U.S., but we’re likely not done yet.”

     In addition to those projects, other projects are also ongoing. Below is a list of U.S. projects that can amount to nearly 50BCF/day of export capacity if developed. I don’t think they will all be developed, and I am concerned that high export demand could lead to higher consumer prices at some point, especially with AI data center demand rising as well. We shall see as more projects come online in the next several years.

 

LNG Plays an Important Role in Energy Security and As an Energy Transition Bridge Fuel in Asia

     More than 70% of global LNG exports are imported to Asia, where energy demand is high and LNG-to-power projects help to alleviate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the coal and oil that they replace. Aside from China and India, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian countries such as Taiwan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are importing LNG.

     After sulfur emissions regulations went into effect in 2020, LNG has been growing in the maritime sector. As the International Maritime Organization (IMO) tightens emissions regulations, more ships are being built or retrofitted to run on LNG. More bunkering facilities are being built as well, with projects in Singapore, Japan, and South Korea. Singapore, in particular, is taking the lead on LNG bunkering for lower-carbon shipping. Japan and South Korea both resell some LNG to other countries in the region, utilizing their vast LNG infrastructure. Japan is also hedging against continued carbon emissions by developing a hydrogen and ammonia economy.

 

     

 

References:

 

Hot Stuff - With Cheniere's Midscale Expansion, the Future of U.S. LNG Looks Hotter Than Ever. Lindsay Schneider. RBN Energy. July 3, 2025. Hot Stuff - With Cheniere's Midscale Expansion, the Future of U.S. LNG Looks Hotter Than Ever | RBN Energy

LNG in Asia: A transitional step on the way to a greener future. IntelliNews. July 5, 2025. LNG in Asia: A transitional step on the way to a greener future