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Sunday, July 27, 2025

Groundwater Depletion and Its Effects: Subsidence, Sea Level Rise, Continental Drying, and Supply Disruptions: New Study Quantifies and Documents Growing Problem


     In most cases, water issues are local or regional. The same is generally true of groundwater depletion and overproduction. Groundwater resources are distributed according to geology and vary considerably by geographic region. The new paper in Science Advances is a global study that highlights some potential global effects of groundwater depletion, such as its surprisingly large contribution to sea level rise. Environmentalists have long portrayed overuse of groundwater resources as potentially catastrophic. It certainly can be in certain places. While probably not as catastrophic as depicted by environmentalists, groundwater depletion is a problem that tends to increase over time since the rate of discharge is much greater than the rate of recharge. One thing that could further decrease recharge rates is soil moisture loss, which is also well-documented. The causes of soil moisture loss, which I wrote about in May 2025, are mainly atmospheric, changes in evapotranspiration, and precipitation. However, without adequate soil moisture, there is less water to recharge aquifers.  





     A long piece by ProPublica about the study describes the main issue of concern:

“… {the study} concludes not only that Earth is suffering a pandemic of “continental drying” in lower latitudes, but that it is the uninhibited pumping of groundwater by farmers, cities and corporations around the world that now accounts for 68% of the total loss of fresh water in those areas…

     The study, by researchers at Arizona State University, examines 22 years of observational data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, satellites, which measure changes in the mass of the Earth and have been applied to estimate its water content.

     Some of the startling conclusions from the paper include that the continental drying exceeded the rates of glacier and ice sheet melting, which means more water for sea level rise is coming from groundwater, evaporation, and changes in precipitation patterns than from melting glaciers. While global warming may be triggering and exacerbating these issues, it is not the direct cause. If groundwater depletion (via pumping and soil moisture loss) is a bigger cause of sea level rise than glacier melting, then the effects of temperature on glacier melting may have been overestimated. The tipping point for continental drying exceeding glacier and ice sheet melt was around 2014-2015, according to the study. The authors had done previous work on terrestrial water storage (TWS). They have termed global TWS reductions as “continental drying.”

     As noted in the abstract below, “dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting.” This is creating what they are calling “mega-drying” regions that continue to expand at an alarming rate.






     The authors note that as surface water resources are depleted, there is more production of groundwater resources. As shallower groundwater aquifers are depleted, deeper ones are tapped. Citing several sources, they note that the problem is:

“…exacerbated by global shortcomings in groundwater management and which amplifies rates of TWS loss through a positive feedback. The consequences of global groundwater depletion include reduced irrigation water supply and threats to agricultural productivity, reduced capacity for climate adaptation, drought resilience and for growth in desert cities, reduced biodiversity (24) and damage to groundwater dependent ecosystems, decreasing access as water tables fall, and many others.”

     They note that about 75% of the global population lives in the 101 countries that have been losing freshwater since 2002. Southwestern North America, Central America, Alaska, the Canadian Archipelago, and Patagonia, much of the Middle East/North Africa/Pan-Eurasia, high-latitude Canada, and northern Eurasia are among the new mega-drying regions.

     More geospatial data and comparisons of wetting and drying from the paper are shown below.










     A 2021 study in the journal Science suggested that 6-20% of groundwater wells globally are at risk of depletion, as noted in the abstract below

Groundwater wells supply water to billions of people, but they can run dry when water tables decline. Here, we analyzed construction records for similar to 39 million globally distributed wells. We show that 6 to 20% of wells are no more than 5 meters deeper than the water table, implying that millions of wells are at risk of running dry if groundwater levels decline by only a few meters. Further, newer wells are not being constructed deeper than older wells in some of the places experiencing significant groundwater level declines, suggesting that newer wells are at least as likely to run dry as older wells if groundwater levels continue to decline. Poor water quality in deep aquifers and the high costs of well construction limit the effectiveness of tapping deep groundwater to stave off the loss of access to water as wells run dry.”

     The abstract of another 2021 paper about groundwater depletion by one of the authors of the current paper explains the problem, based on the previous 2021 paper by Jasechko and Perrone, noted above.




     Long-term trends in TWS by country are shown below.





     The authors calculate that 68% of TWS reduction is attributable to groundwater depletion. Surface water depletion makes up 18%, soil moisture loss makes up 9%, and snow water equivalent makes up 5%. Thus, the TWS reduction problem is mostly a groundwater depletion issue.

     Below are the estimated contributions of TWS loss to sea level rise.





Source: ProPublica


     The authors note that better groundwater management is imperative if we are to preserve these precious resources:

Key management decisions and new policies, especially toward regional and national groundwater sustainability, and international efforts, toward global groundwater sustainability, can help preserve this precious resource for generations to come. Simultaneously, such actions will slow rates of sea level rise.”

We hope that the findings of this work will serve to raise awareness of the urgent, global need to prepare for shrinking freshwater availability on land; greater vulnerability to sea level rise along coastal regions; and the interconnected, widespread impacts of continental drying on people, the environment, and the economy. Major coordinated, national, international, and global, transdisciplinary efforts are critically needed to elevate the level of awareness and action around continental drying and decreasing freshwater availability to that of the carbon cycle.”

     In the methodology section, the authors show how they calculated TWS and separated it into its snow-water equivalent, surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater components.

     The ProPublica article cites activist environmentalist scientist Peter Gleick, who says that groundwater overpumping is severely threatening food production, since 70% of groundwater is used for agriculture. I doubt that the issue is severe yet since it would mainly affect drier areas. Gleick has documented the social effects of droughts and groundwater depletion on things like conflict and migration. There is a need for better water management. California has implemented some policies and standards, but many think they are not acting fast enough to preserve groundwater. Groundwater management needs to be considered everywhere, but especially where aquifers are scarce and vulnerable to depletion, and where it is dry.

 

Land Subsidence Due to Groundwater Withdrawal is a Major Problem in Many Cities

     I remember how the flooding in Houston from 2017’s Hurricane Harvey was exacerbated by land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal. The ProPublica article mentions Mexico City and large parts of China, Indonesia, Spain, and Iran as places at high risk for continued subsidence. A 2025 study in Nature Cities concludes that 28 cities across the United States are sinking, including New York, Houston, and Denver. As noted in the paper’s abstract below, the problem is creating very significant risks to urban infrastructure.













     The paper highlights some groundwater management actions that could help reduce the problem. They involve mitigating the problem with more land use restrictions, groundwater recharge, and engineering solutions such as structural reinforcement and soil compaction, and adapting to the problem by not building or building differently in high-risk areas. Unfortunately, this problem of urban land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is likely to increase, so cities need to become better prepared to handle the problem.

      


      

 

 

References:

 

The Drying Planet. Abrahm Lustgarten, Graphics by Lucas Waldron, Illustrations by Olivier Kugler for ProPublica. July 25, 2025. Global Water Supplies Threatened by Overmining of Aquifers: New Study — ProPublica

New global study shows freshwater is disappearing at alarming rates. Sandy Keaton Leander. Phys.org. July 25, 2025. New global study shows freshwater is disappearing at alarming rates

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise. Hrishikesh A. Chandanpurkar, James S. Famiglietti, Kaushik Gopalan, David N. Wiese, Yoshihide Wada, Kaoru Kakinuma, John T. Reager, and Fan Zhang. Science Advances. 25 Jul 2025. Vol 11, Issue 30. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adx0298. Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise | Science Advances

Global groundwater wells at risk of running dry. Scott Jasechko and Debra Perrone. SCIENCE. Volume372. Issue 6540. Page418-+DOI10.1126/science.abc2755. April 23, 2021. Global groundwater wells at risk of running dry-Web of Science Core Collection

The hidden crisis beneath our feet: Disappearing groundwater requires action to prevent widespread water scarcity. James S. Famiglietti and Grant Ferguson. Science. 23 Apr 2021. Vol 372, Issue 6540. pp. 344-345. The hidden crisis beneath our feet | Science

Land subsidence risk to infrastructure in US metropolises. Leonard O. Ohenhen, Guang Zhai, Jonathan Lucy, Susanna Werth, Grace Carlson, Mohammad Khorrami, Florence Onyike, Nitheshnirmal Sadhasivam, Ashutosh Tiwari, Khosro Ghobadi-Far, Sonam F. Sherpa, Jui-Chi Lee, Sonia Zehsaz & Manoochehr Shirzaei. Nature Cities volume 2, pages543–554 (2025). Land subsidence risk to infrastructure in US metropolises | Nature Cities

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