Trump and Republicans Win ‘Unprecedented and Powerful Mandate’ (No, Not Really). I Think Perceived Liberal Policy Overreach is a Big Factor, Including Regulatory Overreach

 

     I admit I am both surprised and disappointed by Trump’s victory. I read one article that determined it was entirely the fault of the American people, the voters, and so we deserve what we get. That may well be true in part, but the deeper issue is why people voted the way they did. Despite Trump’s great popularity and his perceived ‘charisma,’ I think the main reason voters chose him is to show disapproval of liberal policies and government overreach.

     Trump overcame great odds. The odds of re-electing someone after he refused (and still refuses) to accept the adjudicated 2020 election results, heavily interfered with the peaceful transfer of power, and incited an abominable and deadly riot at the nation’s capital, seemed slim to me. The odds of re-electing a convicted felon with several additional pending cases (soon to be abandoned, no doubt) also seemed slim to me.

     He also overcame other odds such as his age, his incendiary rhetoric (although that often seems to help rather than hinder him), his past record as president (and all the chaos that went with it), his two impeachments, his lackluster performance debating Harris, and the seemingly formidable army of former Trump staff and once-prominent Republicans who actively campaigned against him.  

     It also appears Trump may win the popular vote this time, which would be a first for him and make it a clean sweep. I may not like it, but America chooses MAGA.

    

 

Demographics, More of the Same but More to Trump

   Some things I noted in the last election seem to be ringing true in this one: 1) men love Trump, women, mainly don’t. White men especially love Trump. 2) black voters mainly don’t like Trump, but Trump gained numbers in this demographic. Black males like Trump much more than black females. 3) less educated and rural voters favor Trump by huge margins. Plenty of Latino voters like Trump, more than in the last election.

 

Who Else is Celebrating

     Inevitably, with the populist Trump, there is ‘collateral damage’ as Steve Bannon called it. That includes approval from marginal white supremacy and anti-immigration groups like the KKK.

     Trump’s own cult following – the loyal deep MAGA enthusiasts, has to be ecstatic. They have been vindicated by the less dedicated MAGA. When I say cult following, I am harkening back to the Stop the Steal rallies, rhetoric, QANON conspiracies, and attempts to derail the democratic process. There are other peripheral Trumpist cults as well, perhaps more of that extremist wing "collateral damage." The link leads to an article about a rather disturbing ‘Christian Gun Cult’ led by the son of Reverend Sun Myung Moon, the infamous leader of the “Moonies” cult.

 

     Putin and the Kremlin are already talking about a reset with the U.S. Putin’s plan to wait for Trump to be re-elected, as some have speculated, paid off. Ukraine’s future is now significantly less certain.

     The right-wing populist movements in Europe and elsewhere are likely pleased with the results. Hungary’s Orban is likely pleased.  Argentina’s Milei congratulated Trump early. Thus far, Milei’s work for his country has been good, I believe. I see Milei as a better alternative to the left-wing socialist governments of other Latin American countries. He is a bit too libertarian for me, though.  

      Billionaires will certainly benefit. The likelihood of a tax increase for the super wealthy is essentially nil now. It was reported that the initial post-election Trump stock rally resulted in the richest 10 billionaires increasing their met worth by about $63 billion.

     The January 6 felons will likely be pardoned as soon as is expedient. While I think some of the sentences were much too harsh, there is a good argument to be made that in some cases harsher sentences are a deterrent to future anti-government rioters. 

Who Isn’t Celebrating  

      Some disenfranchised groups of people such as the LGTBQ community and vulnerable immigrants are no doubt experiencing new levels of anxiety.

     Those who had hoped to revive the old Republican party must wait half a decade to even begin in earnest as MAGA Republicans become the vast majority of Republicans. Trump has firmly sown his mark into the very fabric of the Republican party.

     Any of those he named for retribution in his rhetoric, might be a bit nervous now. Those in the government who might be replaced by loyalists are not celebrating.

     Iran will not be happy. In that case, I prefer Trump’s hard-line approach. 

     Some of our allies in the EU and elsewhere are likely not happy about a Trump victory. I just hope he doesn’t spend too much time trashing the EU and Canada when he could be trashing Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

 

Perceived Liberal Policy Overreach

     I believe that the perceived overreach of liberal policies was a major contributor to Trump’s victory. These include many issues including perceived censorship, perceived mandates and perceived ESG, DEI, and wokeness overreach, and things like threatened bans of gas stoves. Several people and authors have noted that things like wokeness overreach or political correctness overreach lead to strong backlashes against it.

     Regarding the censorship issue, I do think there were some unfair activities done by tech companies with shadow-banning and overambitious fact-checking. I was, however, OK with the fact-checking about the COVID conspiracies and fake claims, as these certainly led to unnecessary harm and loss of life. I highly value free speech but I do think there can be exceptions. I am not quite the free-speech absolutist that Elon Musk is. He generally sticks to his principles as people Musk personally doesn’t like are much more likely to get banned on the platform than say, white supremacists. Thus, his few exemptions mean he is not really an absolutist, as he claims.

     The policies pushed by the Progressive wing of the Democrats such as the anti-Israel/pro-Palestine protests no doubt boosted Trump. Perhaps the perceived failure of the Biden administration to address immigration was the biggest factor for Trump.  

 

Some Regulatory Changes Are Ahead

     With control of both houses of Congress, Trump is poised for a big regulatory purge. There are a few obvious things that will likely happen quickly: 1) The end of the ‘pause’ in approving LNG export projects. 2) permit reform that especially favors fossil fuel and nuclear projects (but also renewables). 3) Cutting out chunks of the IRA. Most of those changes will be a net improvement for the economy and fine for the environment. I am in favor of these measures, but I would limit cutting IRA funding to obvious mistakes such as giving money to activist advocacy groups (see future post). I am sure there will be many more regulatory changes, and it should be interesting to see what happens and who ends up working to implement these changes. With people like RFK Jr. Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, and Margerie Taylor Green likely to be in high-level positions it even seems like regulatory issues could arise in a number of strange ways. I have already heard about RFK Jr. recommending the end of water fluoridation. He was also adamantly against vaccines of any sort and against genetically engineered products. Both he and Gabbard were once adamantly against fracking but I’m not sure of their current positions. Musk already has billions in government contracts with SpaceX, Starlink, and other companies. Tesla continues to receive government subsidies for EVs and batteries. I am not sure how or if IRA-funded projects associated with CCS, hydrogen, geothermal, batteries, and other clean energy tech will be affected.

     Another uncertainty is whether Trump will implement the solutions recommended in Project 2025. Even though he had previously distanced himself from the document, he now will have little resistance if he does decide to follow it. It should be interesting to see how this will play out as well.  

     Few economists see Trump’s tariff plans as being a net benefit for American consumers. His plan to deport undocumented and temporarily protected classes of immigrants could result in a low-wage labor shortage and higher food and housing prices.

The Future and Better Collaboration

     I am a fan of the middle, but the middle is lonely these days. I believe sensible moderate policies are the best approach. I think we saw in the debate of Vance and Walz that policy positions are not really as far apart as often depicted, and they can be debated in a civil manner. The middle is where collaboration happens. With Trump’s clean sweep, the middle is probably less empowered but there are still opportunities to collaborate. Non-MAGA Republicans are a vanishing breed.

     We have once again handed Trump the keys to the kingdom and now we must brace ourselves for a future where he is unimpeded by the courts, non-loyalists, and likely by the whole of Congress. He is also unimpeded by the recent Supreme Court decision that increases presidential power and immunity for the executive branch. 

     He says and I repeat with my article title that he has won an unprecedented and powerful mandate. I should qualify that statement. Even though the margin of victory for Trump and the Republicans was significant, it was not unprecedented or necessarily powerful. The margin of the popular vote (still counting) is still less than the margin by which Biden won it in 2020.

     If he really wants to be a good leader, he should dispense with the symbolic machismo and admit he was wrong about the 2020 election. I think he should apologize to the American people for this and for harassing election officials and workers. He won’t do that but if he did, I might take him more seriously as a leader. As an American I wish his negotiations to be successful (as long as they are not whacko or harmful) and for people of different political persuasions to work together. It would be better if there was more bipartisan collaboration no matter which party is in power. 

     Another thing is clear: a majority of Americans are willing to let his past and current lies go unchallenged. This election he focused repeatedly on a narrative that the Biden administration was working hard to gather the votes of undocumented migrants to rig the election, clearly another preposterous allegation. Right wing sites are now amplifying bogus arguments that the high number of votes Biden got in 2020 and lower number now are proof of 2020 fraud. These are lies, bald-faced lies with absolutely no support. Of one thing there is little doubt: Trump is a liar. This is not a judgment, rather it is simply a fact. 

     Since Trump is well known for his transactional nature, his rewarding of loyalty, and punishing of disloyalty, it seems logical to assume gestures towards or away from loyalty will be judged based on that rather than on merit.

     Trump is a populist, and a populist is part folk hero. Apparently, his fist up and rally to “Fight!” has inspired many people. My neighbor has a banner with the picture up as a political sign. (He also rallied his loyal supporters to march to the capital to "Fight like hell!" lest we forget). It seems most candidates are trying to cultivate a mythos about them. We have Dark Brandon and Dark MAGA. Perhaps that is healthy in a limited sense to cultivate folk hero-ness but when it crosses over into whacko conspiracy theories like QANON we are doomed. It is nice that we have not heard much about that twisted mythos lately and hopefully, it will stay that way.