1) Global Data Center Consumption and Emissions
Through 2026
The first is a chart
forecasting global data center consumption and associated carbon emissions
through 2026. It comes from Rocky Mountain Institute, RMI, and utilizes data
from the IEA, Ember, and their own analysis. The forecast gives three possible scenarios.
RMI summarizes the growth and forecast below.
“The exponential growth of computing power has led to a
significant increase in data-center energy consumption, resulting in increased
carbon emissions for the entire industry. In 2022, global data centers consumed
about 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity, accounting for about 1.7 percent
of global electricity consumption. It is estimated that data-center electricity
consumption will keep growing at an annual rate of 6–22 percent reaching
750–2,300 TWh by 2030. This will lead to annual carbon emissions of
approximately 340 million–1,040 million tons, about 0.9–2.8 percent of global
carbon emissions based on the 2023 level.”
Below is a bonus chart from RMI’s report, a flow chart
showing four possible pathways for decoupling the growth of data centers from
rising emissions.
2) % Renewables of All 2021 Primary Energy for the Top
15 Renewables Countries
This one was posted
on LinkedIn by Leen Weijers, VP of Engineering at Liberty Energy. The data is
from Our World in Data. Each of the 15 countries gets 30% or more of their
primary energy from renewables and of those renewables, the vast majority is
from hydroelectric power. It should perhaps be noted that the percentages are
the share of that particular country’s whole so that there are different total
power consumptions for each country.
Thus, it would be better if a graph of actual output by TWh was given along with this
one.
3) Permian Basin Oil Production Growth vs. North Sea
Production Growth
This one is
interesting for a number of reasons. The time scales were matched up so that
the starting point was the same. Commentators noted that the graph ignores the
earlier history of the Permian Basin, one quipping that there have been a half
million wells drilled in the Permian Basin in 103 years. It should also be
noted that the Permian is a horizontal tight oil resource play while the North
Sea is mostly conventionally trapped hydrocarbons in carbonates and sandstones.
The graph was posted and explained by Jim Brooker of
Brookston Resources on LinkedIn. Data is from Goehring & Rozencwajg as
Brooker explains below
“Goehring & Rozencwajg estimate Permian ultimate
recovery at 34 Billion STBO, of which 14 billion has been recovered. The North
Sea has recovered 58 billion barrels of oil. A comparison of 2 plays that
peaked over 5 million barrels per day is illustrated below. The North Sea had a
plateau of around 5 million a day for 6 years, entered the plateau at 20
billion cumulative, and recovered around 11 billion during the plateau. The
Permian has been at essentially 5.4 MMBOPD for the last 11 months.”
Below is another bonus graph that Brooker posted in the
comments where he declined the wells from the present. That scenario does not
seem likely as Permian production is expected to remain robust and likely grow
modestly over the next few years, certainly with several more years of peaking
likely. However, it could start declining faster sometime in the 2030s. He
notes:
“If the approximately 100,000 Permian Wells necessary to
accumulate 34 billion barrels had an economic limit of 10 bopd apiece, and
decline started today, here is what the G&R forecast would suggest:”
One might just shift that over to begin that steep drop
around 2035, give or take.
References:
Report
| 2024. Powering the Data-Center Boom with Low-Carbon Solutions: China’s
Perspective and Global Insights. Ting Li,
Wei Li, Dengfeng Liao, Yujing Liu,
Ziyi Liu, Guangxu Wang, Meng Wang, and Hongyou Xu. RMI. Powering
the Data-Center Boom with Low-Carbon Solutions - RMI
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