Panasonic
announced in September that they will soon commence mass production of their 4680
cylindrical lithium-ion EV batteries. The revamped Wakayama factory in Western
Japan will serve as the “mother factory.” According to Panasonic’s press
release:
“The 4680, a revolutionary cell format of cylindrical
lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), offers substantial
improvements over the conventional 2170 cells. These new cells possess five times
the capacity of the 2170 cell. This not only extends the driving range of EVs,
but also reduces the number of cells required for the same battery pack
capacity. This results in a more efficient battery pack assembly process and
ultimately lowers the cost of EVs, making them more affordable to a wider
market.”
“The manufacturing process of the 4680, with its larger
capacity per cell, requires more advanced technology and expertise. Leveraging
its 30 years of know-how in the development of cylindrical lithium-ion battery
technology, Panasonic Energy has pioneered a mass production method for high-performance
4680 cells, setting a benchmark in the industry.”
The Wakayama factory will also serve as a hub for new
products and methods. By March 2025 Panasonic expects that 400 people will be
working at the factory in development and production. The factory will also
seek low emissions and work towards carbon neutrality by powering the facility
with renewable energy such as solar and onshore wind.
“Kazuo Tadanobu, President and Executive Officer,
Panasonic Energy, said, "I am excited that we are ready to start the mass
production of the cutting-edge 4680 cell. This milestone is the result of years
of expertise in cylindrical lithium-ion battery manufacturing. I'm confident it
will significantly revolutionize the battery and EV industry. As we add the
4680 cell to our lineup, we'll cater to a broader range of needs, further
promoting the use of EVs and advancing our mission of fostering a sustainable
society.”
The moniker 4680
refers to the size of an individual cylinder at 46 mm by 80 mm (1.8 inches by
3.1 inches). These are slightly bigger than the 2170 batteries (I assume they
are 21mm x 70mm) used in Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3, but the higher energy
density overcomes the size difference rather quickly. The batteries were
designed ‘in-house’ at Tesla, according to an article in the Economic Times. Tesla
and Panasonic have a long partnership. It is widely thought that Panasonic will
convert some 2170 factories to produce 4680 batteries in the U.S. along with
building new factories. An article in The Cool Down notes:
“According to New Atlas, the new cells "do require
less supporting material, so they're both lighter and more compact for a given
energy capacity," referencing a 2020 prediction by Tesla that a cell of
the same size could produce a 16% increase in effective range when used in
production.”
The estimates
have been for 500-mile ranges and 10-minute charges.
CATL’s CEO Says 4680 Battery is Bound to Fail and Musk
Does Not Know How to Make Batteries
It has recently
been reported via interview that CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.
Limited) CEO, Robin Zeng, thinks the 4680 batteries will not be successful. CATL,
based in China, is the world’s largest battery maker, investing heavily in solid-state
batteries and other battery chemistries. According to an article in the Economic
Times:
“Zeng called Musk’s in-house designed 4680 battery “a
failure” and stated that it would never be successful. According to Zeng,
Tesla’s 4680 battery, despite its promise of reduced production costs and
higher capacity, has not delivered as expected.”
Apparently, Zeng,
who talks with Musk regularly, noted that when he confronted Musk about this,
Musk remained silent.
“Zeng pointed out that Musk excels in areas like
software, hardware, and mechanical design, but lacks expertise in
electrochemistry, which is crucial for battery development.”
Zeng also
criticized Musk’s overly optimistic timelines as have I. In the fall of 2020, he
predicted that batteries would halve in price in two or three years. That has
not happened. However, it could in another five years from now if solid-state
batteries are successful.
“Musk reportedly told Zeng that he sets aggressive
deadlines to motivate his team, even though he knows they might not be
achievable. According to Zeng, Musk’s target of two years for projects often
turns into what Zeng calls “infinity,” suggesting a delay of much longer than
promised.”
Is it ethical to
lie in order to motivate your team? I know this has been practiced in the
battery and EV industries, historically, but I would say it is unethical and to
make announcements to the public based on similar logic is at the least
dishonest.
The article in the Economic Times outlines the performance and
production challenges the 4680 batteries are facing:
“Despite Musk's high hopes for the 4680 battery, it has
faced several setbacks in production. Though the battery is used in Tesla’s
Cybertruck and some Model Y variants, it has not led to the cost reductions
Musk promised. Instead of bringing cheaper electric vehicles to market, the
4680 is being used in Tesla’s most expensive models.”
“Further challenges include a significant loss of
cathodes during production (70 to 80 percent), compared to less than 2 percent
loss from traditional battery makers. Additionally, the batteries have shown a
tendency to collapse under use, adding to the concerns.”
The fact that the 4680s are being used in Tesla’s most
expensive models indicates that the price will be higher than the 2170
batteries used in those cheaper models. Contrast that with the potential
ability of solid-state batteries to significantly reduce the cost of batteries
while having similar and better range, charging times, and much better fire
safety.
It should be interesting to see how this plays out.
References:
Panasonic
to start mass production of battery that could transform electric cars: 'It
will significantly revolutionize the battery and EV industry. Rick Kazmer, The
Cool Down. November 16, 2024. Panasonic
to start mass production of battery that could transform electric cars: 'It
will significantly revolutionize the battery and EV industry'
Panasonic
Energy Ready to Commence Mass Production of 4680 Automotive Lithium-ion
Batteries. Panasonic. Press Release. September 9, 2024. release
Elon
Musk does not know how to make batteries, he sucks at making batteries, this is
what the CEO of the world's largest battery maker thinks. The Economic Times. November
19, 2024. Elon
Musk does not know how to make batteries, he sucks at making batteries, this is
what the CEO of the world's largest battery maker thinks
Panasonic
to soon make new batteries for Tesla, could ‘reduce’ EV prices: report. Jennifer
Mossalgue. Elektrek. January 15, 2024. Panasonic
to soon make new batteries for Tesla, could 'reduce' EV prices: report |
Electrek
No comments:
Post a Comment