Extensive Brazilian Potash Imports are Twice as Carbon-Intense as Previously Thought, According to New Study

     It has often been noted, by me as well, that carbon accounting has many uncertainties. Unless all aspects of a product, from production to consumption, are accounted for, there can be misconceptions. Life cycle analysis is done to track the full carbon intensity. It was once thought that the subtropical soils in places like Brazil would not be able to support expanded agriculture, but with modern methods of supplying nutrients, it can and does. One major component is imported potassium in the form of potash.

     The new research was led by Newcastle University. The main conclusion was that previous estimates did not fully account for previously overlooked Scope 3 emissions from transport and distribution. 

     The analysis utilized a cradle-to-hub approach. According to Phys.org, the bottom line is that:

“…researchers calculate a weighted average carbon footprint of 530.5 kg CO₂‑eq per ton of KCl delivered to 5,563 agricultural distribution hubs across Brazil—almost double the 273.13 kg CO₂‑eq per ton value widely used today in Brazilian agricultural and biofuel carbon‑accounting tools.”

"As a country that imports almost all of its potash, Brazil is a perfect case study to show how much 'hidden' carbon is embedded in fertilizer supply chains," said Professor Oliver Heidrich, corresponding author of the study and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Newcastle University. "We've shown that fertilizer producers located close to farming regions tend to have a smaller overall carbon emission impact compared to those located in remote regions. Our hope is that this work will drive more rigorous Scope 3 accounting and accelerate the shift toward lower‑carbon potassium sources for Brazilian agriculture."

     The paper’s authors called for stronger Scope 3 disclosure requirements to update carbon accounting for the potash and for other situations where Scope 3 emissions may have been omitted or ignored.

     It is well-known that tropical soils can generally be depleted faster than temperate soils. It was once thought that the soils in places like Brazil would never be able to support long-term intensive agriculture, but the availability of synthetic fertilizers and mined fertilizers like potash has proved that idea wrong. Brazil imports over 20% of global potassium production and relies on imports for about 97% of its KCl demand. The report also notes that some potential domestic sources of potassium have been identified, which would have much lower carbon footprints.

"Brazilian agriculture feeds close to 10% of the world's population, and KCl is one of the agricultural ecosystem's largest embedded sources of emissions," said Cristiano Veloso, Founder and CEO of Verde. "Studies like this help quantify the challenge and show where innovation and investment should focus. Verde intends to be part of the solution by advancing Brazilian‑made potassium specialty fertilizers which, according to our assessments, can cut carbon footprints by up to 89% compared with conventional fertilizer producers operating from remote, carbon‑intensive locations."

     Data tables and figures from the report, published in the journal ‘Resources, Conservation and Recycling’, are shown below.

  

 

 

References

 

Exposing the hidden carbon cost of potash imports into Brazil. Science X staff. Phys.org. December 1, 2025. Exposing the hidden carbon cost of potash imports into Brazil

The true carbon costs of supplying potassium fertilizer to Brazilian agriculture. David A C Manning, Thiago Ribeiro Siqueira, Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar, and Oliver Heidrich. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. Volume 226, February 2026, 108694. The true carbon costs of supplying potassium fertilizer to Brazilian agriculture - ScienceDirect