EIA Forecasts that Half of Global Oil Production Growth in 2026 Will Come from Three South American Countries: Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina

     Back in July, I wrote that the oil production growth expected in the Western Hemisphere will come mostly from South America and Canada. Now, the EIA has put out a forecast predicting that half of global oil production growth in 2026 will come from three South American countries: Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. The first two produce from offshore plays, and Argentina produces from the onshore Neuquén Basin Vaca Muerte Shale play, with its other oil production continuing to decline. They estimate that global oil production growth will be at 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026, with supply from Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina accounting for 0.4 million b/d of the expected global growth forecast. They also estimate that those three counties will be responsible for 28% of global oil production growth in 2025.

     Production in Brazil hit 4 million b/d for the first time in October, with the average hitting 3.8 million b/d. That is expected to grow to 4 million b/d average in 2026.

     In Guyana, production reached 900,000 b/d in November. Average production growth in 2025 is expected to be 130,000 b/d and an additional 140,000 b/d in 2026, bringing production well over 1 million b/d.

     In Argentina, they note:

“Oil production in Argentina averaged 670,000 b/d in 2024 and is expected to grow to 740,000 b/d in 2025, with production from the Vaca Muerta accounting for an estimated 62% of the total between January and October 2025. Continued growth from the Vaca Muerta is expected to drive Argentina’s crude oil production to an average of 810,000 b/d in 2026.”

     They also make the point that the Vaca Muerta play is one of the only unconventional oil resources using hydraulic fracturing methods currently producing significant volumes of crude oil outside of the U.S. That will probably change in the future as more shale plays utilizing horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing will likely be developed in other countries.

    Where oil is exported depends on different factors. Geographical proximity favors oil that is closer and thus cheaper to ship. However, another huge factor is the refinery capabilities of importing countries. U.S refiners mainly process heavy crude while European refiners mainly handle lighter crude. Oil from Guyana is mostly exported to Europe (up to 75% in 2025), due to it being lighter and sweeter than most other South American crude. Argentina exports some of its crude oil, which is sweet, light, low-sulfur, and high-quality. Brazil, Chile, and the U.S. are the main buyers. Brazilian crude began to increase in quality in 2008 when the pre-salt reservoirs in the Campos Basin began production. It produces high-quality sweet and light oil with low contaminant levels. Brazilian crude is exported mainly to Asia, but also to the U.S. and Europe.

      

 

References:

 

Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026. Energy Information Administration. December 17, 2025. Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Guyana’s Oil Exports Skyrocket—And Europe’s Refiners Love It. Tsvetana Paraskova. Oilprice.com. March 15, 2025. Guyana’s Oil Exports Skyrocket—And Europe’s Refiners Love It | OilPrice.com

Analysis: Vaca Muerta and a 2025 Review. Ariel Kogan, Oil and Gas Economics Analyst. Shale 24. December 11. 2025. Analysis: Vaca Muerta and a 2025 Review - Shale24

Driven by pre-salt, oil becomes Brazil's top export. Agência Brasil. January 8, 2025. Driven by pre-salt, oil becomes Brazil's top export | Agência Brasil