The 2030s Will Make or Break EVs, Hydrogen, CCUS, Geothermal, Small Modular Nuclear, and More.

 

     In the U.S. IRA funding to 2032 (unless cut back by Congress) and comparable private capital has been laid down for projects such as these, proposed and under construction. More pilots, tests, hubs, and projects of different types and sizes will yield performance data that can enable financial analysis, and better forecasting, and spur technology improvements.

     Hydrogen projects are just getting started. They will not affect natural gas demand much for many years or decades to come. Blue hydrogen projects use natural gas so they will in a sense replace natural gas with natural gas. Green hydrogen projects are too expensive to make much of a dent. Thus, hydrogen use will remain small and insignificant even as many new projects are rolled out.

     CCS projects are slow, expensive, and can have high O&M costs. They are expected to gradually and eventually make a dent in emissions reduction. These reductions will remain minimal, probably for a decade, unless successes come fast, and improvements are found and deployed.

     Geothermal won’t make much of a dent in any production any time soon, and perhaps never. There are some great projects that will add incremental energy production and emissions reduction, but they still cost a lot. Technology improvements in enhanced geothermal via hydraulic fracturing and in deeper hotter geothermal could be wildcards, but not in the near term. Perhaps by the 2040s, we will see real enhancements.

     Small modular nuclear (SMR) has been bogged down by regulatory hurdles, costs, and timeframes. There are projects in the works that will be online later this decade and into the 2030s but it may be the mid-2030s or later before they begin to make a dent in energy production.

     Other projects like biofuels, renewable natural gas, and renewable diesel will grow but are limited by the total resources available and especially by cost. They will not have much of an effect on energy production.

     All these technologies are great and offer partial solutions for emissions reduction, but they will not be enough. Wind and solar will help but they have constraints. They are expensive, intermittent, and unreliable. They are overly dependent on Chinese mineral resources and supply chains.

 

 

Despite Automakers Currently Pulling Back from EVs They Will Get Better in the Future

     When energy transition minerals and minerals processing can be decoupled a bit from China, when new battery chemistries make batteries lighter and cheaper, when solid-state batteries make EV batteries safer, when ranges are increased to 600 and 1000 miles, when battery lives get longer when charging infrastructure is more available, accessible, and function, and when charging times are faster, EVs will proliferate. This is also dependent on cost. When EVs achieve some kind of cost parity with ICE vehicles, EVs will be seen as better due to their lower powering costs and their lower maintenance costs. 

     Hybrid EVs already offer reasonable prices, fast payouts, and low operating costs. BMW and German Technology company Deep Drive are working on a dual rotor hub-mounted in-wheel electric motor system. They think their in-wheel motor design represents a paradigm shift in EV motors. The dual rotor design increases efficiency and torque. In-wheel motors can also save space and enable some redesigning. BMW and Deep Drive are conducting ongoing real-world testing currently. According to an article in Interesting Engineering:

“At the top of the line, DeepDrive’s RM 2400 targets performance-oriented vehicles, including sports cars, with an impressive 2400 Nm of torque and 250kW of peak power, all while weighing only 37 kg.”

“Notably, all of DeepDrive’s wheel hub motors boast up to 20% greater energy efficiency compared to conventional electric motors, promising reduced ownership costs and a greener footprint.”

     These kinds of hybrids are known as extended range EVs (EREVs). Hyundai reported just weeks ago that they plan to offer EREVs with in-wheel motors that offer a range of 560 miles beginning in 2027. Along with BMW and Hyundai, Mazda, and Stellantis are working on EREVs. 

      China's  Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) has a new in-wheel engine that revs up to 30,000 rpms. It is 330mm in diameter and weighs just 37 lbs. It produces about 201 brake horsepower (bhp) of output. There is no need for a gear box, drive shaft, and other parts of the drive train, saving space, materials, and weight. The range on GAC's in-wheel engine is increased by 31 miles, which is not stellar but still an advantage. 

   

  

     When EVs really do take off, so will electrification. More than EVs will be charged. Heavy equipment, trucks, buses, trains, ships, grid-scale batteries, AI, and more will add more demand to power grids. One wildcard that could affect EV proliferation is improvements in ICE vehicles, especially efficiency improvements that reduce emissions, fuel use, and costs. 

 

 

Some Projects are Being Canceled: Not Unexpected but Always Concerning

     First-of-a-kind projects can be affected by immature technologies, unsolved manufacturing and construction issues, and other snags that make cost overruns, delays, downtime, and high O&M costs more likely. Some projects are deemed technically or economically unfeasible.

     As expected, several CCS projects have been canceled. Norwegian energy company Equinor recently announced the cancelation of a major ‘blue hydrogen’ project that included a planned hydrogen pipeline from the North Sea to Germany, which would have been the world’s first offshore hydrogen pipeline. They cited high costs and lack of demand to buy their hydrogen as factors in their decision. They could not get the long-term contracts they needed due partially to an immature hydrogen market. They will continue with their onshore hydrogen projects in the Netherlands and the UK.

 

 

I Think That This Means We Will Need Natural Gas at High Levels for Decades to Come

 

     While forecasts suggest that oil demand will drop, we will still need oil. When electrification really takes off in the 2030s, we will need more power on the grid. This is already happening with the high-energy use of AI. New plans are being made to build new natural gas power plants, revive shuttered nuclear plants, and delay retirements of coal plants and old inefficient natural gas plants. This acknowledges that wind and solar alone will not be adequate. Concerns about power grid reliability are real and meeting demand growth could be challenging. In the U.S. natural gas is best suited to meeting new demand despite hopes by some to deeply decarbonize the power grid. Most power scenarios show continued natural gas usage. Some show higher use, some flat use, and others diminishing use. With numerous planned coal retirements on the horizon along with the increases in demand it is hard to see a scenario without at least flat natural use and it seems likely to me that natural gas use will increase in the near term, perhaps for the next 10-20 years.

 

References:

 

Energy giant abandons ‘blue hydrogen’ plans. Jonathan Leake. The Telegraph. September 21, 2024. Energy giant abandons ‘blue hydrogen’ plans (msn.com)

Discovery could lead to longer-lasting EV batteries, hasten energy transition. Science X staff. Tech Xplore. September 12, 2024. Discovery could lead to longer-lasting EV batteries, hasten energy transition (msn.com)

In-wheel motors: BMW’s new engine experiment can boost EVs’ range. Aman Tripathi. Interesting Engineering. July 20, 2024. In-wheel motors: BMW’s new engine experiment can boost EVs’ range (msn.com)

Hyundai's New Hybrids Prove Gas Engines Aren't Dead (But They're Not What You'd Think). Alex Hevesy. Slash Gear. August 28, 2024. Hyundai's New Hybrids Prove Gas Engines Aren't Dead (But They're Not What You'd Think) (msn.com)

China’s compact in-wheel engine promises 201 bhp output, enhanced EV range. Abhishek Bhardwaj. Interesting Engineering. September 9, 2024. China’s compact in-wheel engine promises 201 bhp output, enhanced EV range (msn.com)