New Model Explains Siberian Permafrost Craters: Sinking Meltwater Driven by Osmosis Triggers Methane Hydrate Blowouts

 

     Methane is stored in permafrost in the form of methane hydrates, also known as klathrates. Methane stored in Siberian permafrost is mostly of biogenic origin due to the burial of organic matter but sometimes there is some mixing with deeper thermogenic methane.

     Unexplained craters first appeared on the permafrost-covered Yamala Peninsula in Siberia in 2014. Methane outgassing offshore of the Yamal Peninsula also occurs. I wrote about this in my 2022 book Natural Gas and Decarbonization from which the next section is derived, in order to give some context and to show some of the modeling and mechanisms for methane seeps on the West Yamal shelf in shallow waters close to the peninsula.

 

Methane Seeps

 

     There are methane seeps in many places in the world. Methane is trapped in large quantities in klathrates, or gas hydrates, on the ocean floor and in the permafrost of the Arctic tundra. Some seeps are long-established and ongoing, and some are newly formed. Offshore the Yamal peninsula in Siberia the permafrost is thawing due partially to warming ocean temperatures but mostly due to geothermal heat flux where heat from within the earth is melting it. In the Kara Sea the permafrost extends to below the ocean where during the last glacial maximum sea level was far lower and the land extended out from the sea. The permafrost thickness on land is up to a half mile but is thinner in the sea now where both warmer ocean temperatures and especially geothermal heat flux are thawing it. It is leaking in a small band where the water is shallow, not deep enough to hold it in with hydrostatic pressure. Gas hydrates on the ocean floor are held and sealed by the hydrostatic pressure of the water column but methane in permafrost under the ocean nearer to shore with a thinner water column is sealed more by the cold temperatures of the permafrost and may leak. The accelerated climate change temperature increase response of the Arctic can potentially make the submerged permafrost thaw faster, releasing more methane in these areas. On land in Yamal peninsula in Siberia are craters that have sunk as sinkholes that are releasing methane from the permafrost in some places.^[1]

     In some places sea level rise that newly covers tundra that contains klathrates could lead to them being released into the atmosphere, but the quantity is not expected to be significant. One reason is that much of the methane released to the ocean is oxidized, often by microbes. One estimate is that only about 1% of dissolved methane in the ocean makes it to the atmosphere. There is some concern that human endeavors that dig into marine sediments like pipelines and undersea cables might disturb them enough to release klathrates but nothing like this has been observed. Since the areas where oceanic klathrates occur are vast it is not possible to quantify in great detail but perhaps the satellites designed for methane detection can be able to detect new sources or increases in outgassing. The USSR, Canada, the US and more recently Japan and India have done some research projects to test recovering of methane klathrates through drilling. However, there are technical issues that make the costs of recovery uneconomic. Before fracking unleased vast new quantities of natural gas, the research into klathrates was more poignant perhaps than today.^[2]

     Recently, in Antarctica, scientists have gotten the opportunity to see a new undersea methane seep forming which may aid in understanding these phenomena. It is the first active seep found in Antarctica. A microbial mat on the sea floor below the frozen ocean revealed the presence of the seep. The microbes found there were not the same kind as found at seeps in other locations which suggested to some researchers that there may be a succession pattern of microbes that inhabit seeps.^[3]

 

 

New Model Explains Methane Crater-Forming Explosions on the Yamal Peninsula

     Since 2014 methane craters have been found on the Yamal Peninsula and the nearby Gydan Peninsula in the Siberian Arctic. The big crater found in 204 measures approximately 70 meters (230 feet) across at its widest point. Clearly, something ne is causing this and that something very likely is associated with warming permafrost influenced by anthropogenic global warming, which has been has occurred more strongly in the Arctic region (as predicted by models) in a phenomenon known as ‘Arctic acceleration.’ The new research offers the most detailed modeling yet and proposal of the mechanism of these explosive methane ejections into the atmosphere. The authors found that permafrost warming alone would not be enough to produce these explosions or “blowouts” and that explanations based on contact with deeper thermogenic natural gas accumulations are not plausible due to the gas being overwhelmingly of biogenic origin.

     The authors propose that the melting permafrost causes significant amounts of meltwater below the surface that flows down via a process called osmosis into lenses of highly saline water kept in a liquid state by pressure, known as cryopegs. The meltwater increases the pressure within the cryopeg until it has enough pressure to fracture the frozen soil above and form a crater. The gas trapped just below it is then released. This is a purely physical process, they say, since they ruled out any chemical reaction process to account for the blowouts. According to Phys.org:

 

“The Yamal Peninsula's thick, clayey permafrost acts as an osmotic barrier—and warming is changing it. This 180 to 300-meter (590 to 980-foot)-thick layer stays permanently frozen throughout the year. An "active layer" of topsoil above it thaws and re-freezes seasonally.”

 

“Interspersed throughout the tundra and sandwiched within the permafrost lie unusual, one-meter-thick layers of unfrozen, high-salinity water called cryopegs, kept liquid by a combination of pressure and salinity. Underneath the cryopegs sits a layer of crystallized methane-water solids, called methane hydrates, which are kept stable by high pressure and low temperature.”

      As the first figure in this post shows, the cryopeg first inflates, increasing in size until it blows out from the pressure increase.

The image below seems to show the first two parts of the process. Part 3 is probably the meltwater reaching the cryopeg and part 4 is the pressure blowout/explosion.

Osmotic pressure from the pressure differential between the two liquids makes the meltwater flow down toward the cryopegs. When the meltwater reaches the cryopegs it increases the pressure until the ground above fractures. It is similar to the process of hydraulic fracturing where the fracture gradient is overcome by increasing hydraulic pressure to cause the cracking of nearby rock or soil. Essentially, osmosis is pressure pumping into the cryopeg until it exceeds the fracture gradient of the overlying sediments.

 

“The increasing pressure creates cracks in the soil that travel upward from the cryopeg toward the surface. The pressure gradient then reverses: the cracked soil causes a sudden drop in pressure at depth. That pressure change damages the methane hydrates below the cryopeg, which causes a release of methane gas and a physical explosion.”

     A 2019 study of gas hydrates in permafrost compared the shear strength and deformation styles of unfrozen hydrate-free, frozen hydrate-free, unfrozen hydrate-bearing, and frozen hydrate-bearing sediments. The presence of hydrates and whether it was frozen or not was found to strongly affect how these sediments deform under stress, in this case, high pressure.

“The shear characteristics and deformation behavior of four types of artificial sediments were investigated at different conditions, including unfrozen hydrate-free, frozen hydrate-free, unfrozen hydrate-bearing, and frozen hydrate-bearing sediments. Results show that ice and gas hydrates distinctively affect the shearing characteristics and deformation behavior of the specimens, though they are both water-based crystalline solids.”

“Methane hydrate plays a dominant role in the geomechanical properties of the simulated permafrost sediments.”

     The blowouts release a mix of gas and water. Pockmarked Arctic lake bottoms on the Yamal Peninsula are thought to be craters formed by similar processes. A past period of Arctic warming has been hypothesized as a reason for their formation. It has also been noted that gas sometimes leaks around wellbores drilled into permafrost. This was in the past thought to be from oil and gas reservoirs in rocks far below leaking up but no it seems much more likely that this is from gas hydrates trapped within the permafrost, presumably below these cryopegs. A 2018 paper in Cold Regions Science and Technology noted that the type of sediment, its composition, and grain size have an effect on the sensitivity of the hydrates to temperature changes. The hydrates decompose at lower temperatures in clay sediments than in sandy sediments.

“Intrapermafrost metastable hydrates can exist in salted clay sediments if ice coating formation around hydrates during self-preservation process is possible. But unlike in intrapermafrost sandy sediments metastable hydrates in salted clay sediments decompose at much lower temperatures (in the experiment conducted that was −6.75–−6.57 °C), than in sandy sediments.”

     The new research implicating osmotic pressure as a mechanism for increasing cryopeg pressure also suggests a similar mechanism for methane releases on the shelf offshore of the Yamala Peninsula. The authors also suggest what future research should aim to clarify:

“Further work may explore the typical volume of gas that is released in these explosions, and their potential height into the atmosphere. Furthermore, it is relevant to assess the number of currently existing cryopegs. The model may also be verified by checking if the explosions occur most often during or just after summer.”

The researchers also note that this area has a very specific set of geological circumstances that re conducive to these blowout craters, not likely to be widely replicated. Even so, the cryopegs should be mapped and the volume of potentially releasable methane associated with them should be determined since it is thought that the total volume would be enough to have a significant impact on global warming.

 

References:

Study offers new explanation for Siberia's permafrost craters. Science X staff. Phys.org. September 26, 2024. Study offers new explanation for Siberia's permafrost craters (msn.com)

Osmosis Drives Explosions and Methane Release in Siberian Permafrost. Ana M. O. Morgado, Luis A. M. Rocha, Julyan H. E. Cartwright, and Silvana S. S. Cardoso. American Geophysical Union. Geophysical Research Letters. First published: 26 September 2024. Osmosis Drives Explosions and Methane Release in Siberian Permafrost - Morgado - 2024 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

Experimental modeling of methane release from intrapermafrost relic gas hydrates when sediment temperature change. V.S. Yakushev, A.P. Semenov, V.I. Bogoyavlensky, V.I. Medvedev,  and I.V. Bogoyavlensky. Cold Regions Science and Technology. Volume 149, May 2018, Pages 46-50. Experimental modeling of methane release from intrapermafrost relic gas hydrates when sediment temperature change - ScienceDirect

Gas Hydrates in Permafrost: Distinctive Effect of Gas Hydrates and Ice on the Geomechanical Properties of Simulated Hydrate-Bearing Permafrost Sediments. J. Yang, A. Hassanpouryouzband, B. Tohidi, E. Chuvilin, B. Bukhanov, V. Istomin, A. Cheremisin. JGR Solid Earth. Volume124, Issue3. March 2019. Pages 2551-2563. Gas Hydrates in Permafrost: Distinctive Effect of Gas Hydrates and Ice on the Geomechanical Properties of Simulated Hydrate‐Bearing Permafrost Sediments - Yang - 2019 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth - Wiley Online Library

 

 

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[1] Portnov, Alexey, Mienert, Jurgen, and Serov, Pavel, October 2014. Modeling the evolution of climate-sensitive Arctic subsea permafrost in regions of extensive gas expulsion at the West Yamal shelf. JGR Biogeosciences. Modeling the evolution of climate‐sensitive Arctic subsea permafrost in regions of extensive gas expulsion at the West Yamal shelf - Portnov - 2014 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences - Wiley Online Library

 

[2] Barry, Justin P., 2008. Deep Ocean Methane Clathrates: An Important New Source for Energy? A Thesis in Chemistry Education Presented to the Faculty of the University of Pennsylvania in partial fulfillment of the requirement of the Degree of Master of Chemistry Education At University of Pennsylvania 2008. Microsoft Word - Justin Barry-Thesis-Methane Clathrates-Final Copy.doc (upenn.edu)

 

[3] Sakharkar, Ashwini, July 23, 2020. First active Methane Seep discovered in Antarctica. Tech Explorist. First active Methane Seep discovered in Antarctica - Tech Explorist

 

Biden EPA’s Clean Power Push Getting Push-Back from Grid Operators, FERC, and Maybe the Courts

 

     I have often noted that the Biden administration’s clean power push is too ambitious and that a slower, more gradual, and smarter transition to clean power is needed to retain power system reliability. That push should retain as much natural gas as possible, including natural gas from the most efficient type of natural gas plant, large H-Class turbine-based combined-cycle gas plants. The goal of relegating natural gas plants to low utilization rates in favor of intermittent renewables is a stated strategy of those who favor deep decarbonization. It would be expensive for utilities to lose more revenue from these efficient and reliable thermal power plants. Operating efficient combined-cycle plants like simple-cycle plants makes them unnecessarily inefficient and wastes their potential as baseload energy sources. A slower energy transition also means slower increases in energy costs for consumers, and I know I can’t afford to pay more right now.

     With looming power demand increases imminent from AI, EVs, and other electrification, the need for more dispatchable power is beginning to grow. It’s clear that wind, solar, and batteries will not be able to keep up. Reserve margins for extreme heat or extreme cold events are not always maintained to desirable levels. A single major failure in this regard can lead to multiple human deaths.  

     An amicus brief was filed by four major regional grid operators supporting the ‘red state’ challenge to the rule and arguing the rules will make it harder for all to secure reliable power.

The issue is stated clearly:

 

“Their proffered brief outlines in detail that without additional modification, the compliance timelines and related provisions of the Rule are not workable and are destined to trigger an acceleration in the pace of premature retirements of electric generation units that possess critical reliability attributes at the very time when such generation is needed to support ever-increasing electricity demand because of the growth of the digital economy and the need to ensure adequate back-up generation to support an increasing amount of intermittent renewable generation,” the grid operators wrote in their amicus brief. “Such inevitable and foreseeable premature retirement decisions resulting from the Rule’s timelines will substantially strain each of the Joint [independent system operators’] / [regional transmission organizations’] ability to maintain the reliability of the electric power grid to meet the needs of the citizenry and the country’s economy.”

 

     The brief was filed by a big majority of U.S. power system operators: Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), PJM, Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). They argue that the requirements for coal plants to reduce emissions by 90% by 2032 are not feasible so those plants would have to be closed and likely be replaced by natural gas plants. The rule is relying on a fast and effective CCS technology rollout, which is not guaranteed. The cost alone of CCS will probably keep that rollout slow. CCS may well become successful and able to help reduce emissions, but it won’t happen fast enough to meet these ambitious targets. Thus, the rule is not undergirded by feasibility.

     The combination of retiring baseload generation, increasing power demand, reliability concerns, and the need to keep reserve margins for extreme events could be a recipe for disaster. That FERC Commissioner Mark Christie is worried about such a scenario shows that the Biden EPA plan is out of whack. The main issue is the “inevitable and foreseeable premature retirement decisions.” It is simply that the timelines are not feasible. Power grid planning and management is complicated and very sensitive to changes in the availability of dispatchable power generation. Forcing a big chunk of that available dispatchable generation offline while demand for it is increasing is not wise or warranted. I have argued before that the U.S. power grid has been decarbonizing at a steady rate for many years now and will continue to do so. Trying to speed up that process at the expense of reliability is not necessary. Coal plants will continue to be retired but some are more vital and needed than others. I think that the best course of action is for the EPA to stop, review, and reevaluate its plan and timelines in light of what the grid operators and Biden-appointed FERC chairman are saying.

 

 

 

References:

‘Inevitable And Foreseeable’: Grid Operators Beg Court To Nix EPA Rules To Save Electricity System From Collapse. Nick Pope. Daily Caller. September 17, 2024. ‘Inevitable And Foreseeable’: Grid Operators Beg Court To Nix EPA Rules To Save Electricity System From Collapse (msn.com)

Fluoride in Drinking Water: California Federal Court rules EPA Must Review Fluoridation Regulations

 

     Fluoride is a powerful toxin at high concentrations. It is considered safe at low concentrations. It has a clear protective effect on dental health. At issue currently is the safety margin between recommended levels for optimal dental health and levels that can harm children as well as assessment of all avenues of exposure to measure total exposure.

     A new ruling by a federal district court judge in California questions the safety of currently recommended levels of fluoride in drinking water, citing studies that suggest fluoride from other sources such as toothpaste and food added makes the levels potentially unsafe. He also noted that studies suggest that high fluoride levels lower IQ in children. He argued that current allowable levels in drinking water are too close to levels that are toxic. The judge noted that there is a preponderance of evidence that suggests that there is an “unreasonable risk” of current levels of fluoride added to drinking water. It seems the decision basically requires the EPA to look more into the issue and come up with some kind of response.

According to the CDC’s Public Health Service (PHS):

“The PHS panel that provided the recommendation considered all sources of fluoride intake and recommended 0.7 mg/L as the concentration that maximizes fluoride's oral health benefits while minimizing potential harms, such as dental fluorosis.”

Dental fluorosis refers to damage to developing teeth caused by excessive levels of fluoride. The recommended level is 0.7 mg/L and the level considered to be safe is less than 1.5 mg/L. Apparently, that 0.8mg/L margin between fluoride levels deemed safe and levels considered to be harmful to human health, especially of children, are not as high of a safety margin as some, including the judge, deem necessary.

     One of the studies cited was just completed by the National Institutes of Health (NIH)National Toxicology Program (NTP). Their findings include the following:

 

“The NTP monograph concluded that higher levels of fluoride exposure, such as drinking water containing more than 1.5 milligrams of fluoride per liter, are associated with lower IQ in children. The NTP review was designed to evaluate total fluoride exposure from all sources and was not designed to evaluate the health effects of fluoridated drinking water alone. It is important to note, however, that there were insufficient data to determine if the low fluoride level of 0.7 mg/L currently recommended for U.S. community water supplies has a negative effect on children’s IQ.”

 

The monograph also suggests that more research is needed regarding the safety of low fluoride concentrations. Fluoride is clearly beneficial for dental health at lower levels so my guess is that the EPA will review the issue as required and either not change the recommendation or lower it a small amount.

     The American Academy of Pediatrics questioned the NIH report:

 

“While additional research to better understand the association and potential biologic mechanisms would be important, there’s nothing about the research that makes me concerned (about) … low levels of fluoride through use of toothpaste and drinking fluoridated water,” said Charlotte W. Lewis, M.D., M.P.H., FAAP, a member of the AAP Section on Oral Health.

 

They also questioned the reliability of the methodologies and conclusions of the report, which was essentially a meta-analysis of previous data. The AAP points out that other studies and meta-analyses utilizing the same data came to different conclusions, that fluoride was not associated with lower IQ. Apparently, the NIH research suggested that child IQ could be lowered by 4 points. That is not a large amount and could be within a margin of error or not statistically significant. They also opine that the problem of dental caries is far more damaging than any risks to IQ associated with safe fluoride levels. Water fluoridation is not required. They point out that in places where it has been discontinued, there were subsequent increases in dental caries.

     Critics have noted that other countries have reduced cavity levels without water fluoridation. The CDC still says it is the best way to protect dental health:

 

The CDC has argued that continued water fluoridation is still the “most cost-effective method of delivering fluoride to all members of the community regardless of age, educational attainment, or income level.”

 

The judge referred the EPA to a number of options in response to the ruling. These include adding a warning label about fluoride's risks at current levels to possibly lowering the levels added to public drinking water systems.  

     The plaintiffs in the case, which include activist groups such as Food and Water Watch, have a clearly stated goal of banning the addition of fluoride to any drinking water, suggesting unscientifically that no levels are safe.  

 

According to the CDC water fluoridation is a cost-effective way to improve dental health:

“Drinking fluoridated water keeps teeth strong and reduces cavities by about 25% in children and adults. This results in less mouth pain, fewer fillings or teeth pulled, and fewer missed days of work and school.”

“Communities of 1,000 or more people see an average estimated return on investment (ROI) of $20 for every $1 spent on water fluoridation. The ROI for community water fluoridation increases as the community size increases, but even small communities save money. Communities served by fluoridated water save an average of $32 per person a year by avoiding treatment for cavities.”

     The CDC notes that 74 million Americans lack access to fluoridated drinking water.

     Fluoride concentrations in naturally occurring water sources vary and must be considered to get concentrations to the desired levels. Most groundwater sources in the U.S. have naturally occurring fluoride concentrations between 0.1 and 0.7 mg/L. Some groundwaters have clearly unsafe levels of fluoride as the U.S. map below shows. Fluoride can be removed from drinking water via microfiltering.

In 1945, Grand Rapids, Michigan became the first city to fluoridate its community water, when they adjusted existing levels to 1 mg/L or 1 ppm. Since then, it has been adjusted to the current recommended level of 0.7 mg/L (ppm). As mentioned, fluoridation is not a requirement. Anti-fluoride activist groups which have been active for a long time, campaign to stop water fluoridation. The map below shows U.S. communities without drinking water fluoridation. Below the map, the graph shows how many people live where fluoridation is banned. Portland, Oregon, with a population of 900,000 is the largest city under a fluoridation ban.

 

 

References:

 

Federal court rules against EPA in lawsuit over fluoride in water. Alexander Tin. CBS News. September 25, 2024. Federal court rules against EPA in lawsuit over fluoride in water (msn.com)

Judge orders EPA to address potential IQ impacts of fluoride in drinking water. Rachel Frazin. The Hill. September 25, 2024. Judge orders EPA to address potential IQ impacts of fluoride in drinking water (msn.com)

Community Water Fluoridation Recommendations. Center for Disease Control. Community Water Fluoridation Recommendations | Fluoridation | CDC

About Community Water Fluoridation. Center for Disease Control. About Community Water Fluoridation | Fluoridation | CDC

Fluoride Exposure: Neurodevelopment and Cognition. National Institutes of Health. National Toxicology Program. Fluoride Exposure: Neurodevelopment and Cognition (nih.gov)

AAP stands by recommendations for low fluoride levels to prevent caries. Melissa Jenco. American Academy of Pediatrics. August 23, 2024. AAP stands by recommendations for low fluoride levels to prevent caries | AAP News | American Academy of Pediatrics

Dental fluorosis. Wikipedia. Dental fluorosis - Wikipedia

The fluoride fight: Data shows more US cities, towns remove fluoride from drinking water. Mary Walrath-Holdridge. USA Today. April 17, 2024. Fluoride being removed from water systems in more U.S. communities (usatoday.com)

 

The Sahara is “Greening” Again Temporarily: This Can Have Some Local Benefits Such as Reducing Desertification, but Catastrophic Flooding is Also Occurring

 

     When I was an undergrad, I wrote a paper for a geography class on desertification along the Sahara which is basically the spreading of the desert. The problem has diminished a little in recent years, due in part to better land use management. Human activities such as agriculture and especially livestock grazing, deforestation, natural climate variation, and natural processes like wind erosion are driving the spread. It is often difficult to tell how much each is influencing it. Paleoclimatology reveals that the Sahara Desert region was last green sometime between 5000 and 11,000 years ago after the last ice age subsided. Evidence suggests that the greening of the Sahara occurs in cycles every 23,000 years and it is related to the wobble in Earth’s rotation which changes the angle relative to the sun from 23.5 to 24.1 degrees and back again over that period. This is one of the Milankovitch cycles. It is likely that the other cycles also have an effect since they too influence solar radiation. Thus, it is likely a combined effect.

     Evidence from ocean sediments suggests that the current greening and browning cycle has been occurring for more than 5 million years. The desert formed 7 million years ago when the Tethys Sea was closed off due to plate tectonics. The next greening is expected around 10,000 years from now. What scientists think happens is that the change in angle results in changes in solar radiation which trigger the winds to shift and bring the African monsoons into the desert in a new weather pattern. That is what one would call natural climate change. A huge wildcard in the potential for greening is anthropogenic climate change. Could it also trigger a weather shift that brings the monsoons into the desert? It seems it can at least do it on occasion as is appearing now in 2024. It is likely that this is still just a natural fluctuation within a natural climate cycle and perhaps it is being influenced to some degree by anthropogenic climate change. According to a Live Science article from 2020:

 

“The Green Sahara, also known as the African Humid Period, was caused by the Earth's constantly changing orbital rotation around its axis, a pattern that repeats itself every 23,000 years, according to Kathleen Johnson, an associate professor of Earth systems at the University of California Irvine.

 

“The termination of the Green Sahara took only 200 years, Johnson said. The change in solar radiation was gradual, but the landscape changed suddenly. "It's an example of abrupt climate change on a scale humans would notice," she said.

 

     The Sahara Desert as a desert does provide tangible ecosystem services such as delivering sand by air that aids the fertility of the Amazon region and providing sand for Caribbean beaches. It delivers more wind-blown sand around the world than any other desert. It can also be a powerful air pollutant when concentrated.

     There is still uncertainty about all the influences on the Sahara so other periods of temporary greening are possible. Any changes from anthropogenic climate change would likely be less intense than orbital changes and temporary as well.

     Interestingly, the article suggests a possible action to increase the likelihood of an induced greening by deploying solar panels and wind turbines, clearly acknowledging that deploying them influences local weather patterns and is a possible way to ‘geoengineer’ the local climate. The wind and solar farms would increase the local humidity which could increase rainfall and vegetation growth in a positive feedback loop. The idea has not been tested. A more successful project has been reforestation and soil conservation. 

     The Great Green Wall project was launched in 2007 to make a green corridor across the Sahel region which borders the Sahara on the south. The project has several goals, one of which is to slow desertification. 

Map of the Great Green Wall Project

     Despite the current monsoon shift, desertification remains the dominant issue by far. The map below shows the drying up of Lake Chad from 1972 to 2007.

 

 

 

The Current Greening Event and Associated Catastrophic Flooding

  

     An article in the Washington Post explains the current greening event and the weather pattern that is driving it:

“In North Africa, some of the driest places on Earth have seen five times their average September rainfall. Flooding has affected more than 4 million people in 14 countries, according to the U.N. World Food Program. Heavy rain and floods have killed or displaced thousands and disrupted farming activities in areas where there already isn’t enough food for the population.”

“A northward shift in the region of clouds and rain that circles Earth near the equator is responsible for the flooding and greening. In this area, called the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Southern Hemisphere winds blowing from the southeast converge with Northern Hemisphere winds blowing from the northeast. The combination of converging winds, strong sun and warm ocean water leads to rising, moist air and constant clouds, showers and thunderstorms.”

“The movement of the ITCZ north and south of the equator during the year is primarily driven by the difference in temperature between the Northern and Southern hemispheres. It drifts toward the warmer hemisphere, which means it resides north of the equator during the Northern Hemisphere summer, usually reaching its northernmost point in August or September.”

     While this event is catastrophic in terms of flooding, it will likely be quite temporary. Changes in precipitation patterns and greening comparisons of 2023 and 2024 are shown below.

     The transition of El Nino to La Nina weather patterns in the Pacific is also thought to be an influential factor in this year’s event as well as the influence from anthropogenic climate change. The change in weather patterns in Africa has also made a few areas drier than expected by shifting that rainfall to the north into the southern Sahara.

References:

An unusual shift in the weather has turned the Sahara green. Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist. September 13, 2024. The Sahara Desert is greening as unusual storms hit parts of Africa | CNN

Why parts of the Sahara desert are turning green this month. Dan Stillman and Ian Livingston. The Washington Post. September 19, 2024. Why parts of the Sahara desert are turning green this month (msn.com)

Could the Sahara Ever Be Green Again. Donavyn Coffey. Live Science. UCI School of Physical Sciences, September 27, 2020. Could the Sahara ever be green again? | UCI

Desertification in Africa. Wikipedia. Desertification in Africa - Wikipedia

Is the Sahara Desert Growing? Owen Mulhern. Earth.Org. February 17, 2021. Is the Sahara Desert Growing? | Earth.Org

Challenges Facing Older Workers, Including Ageism in the Workplace

     I can tell you from personal experience that older workers face many challenges. One thing that surprised me a bit is simply the difficulty of finding work. I figured that with my decades of experience I would be able to get more interviews but far more often than not I am screened out.    

      One aspect of ageism that is often unintentional but real nonetheless is hiring for entry-level positions more often. Companies and government employers may target specifically for entry-level positions or hire for low-paying positions that sort of imply that they would prefer a younger candidate. Many state jobs I have applied for ask specifically for your age range. In my case, 55-69 is the range I have encountered frequently. While employers may also target older workers with higher-paying management-level jobs, these also often require very specific experience and advanced degrees. Without those, an older candidate is again at a significant disadvantage. In my case, I live in a rural area where jobs are scarce, long commutes are a given, and I still must compete with those who are more mobile and will move to get a decent position in my general area. Many of us older workers are less inclined to relocate for a job.

     Whether to take social security early is another issue that comes up. If one loses a job at age 62 or higher, one is more likely to take social security early due to financial need. This can cut one’s benefits from what they would be if one didn’t choose to take it early. According to an analysis from the Employee Benefit Research Institute, 46% of workers retired earlier than planned in 2023. Other issues like health problems contribute to that but often job loss is a big factor. The study said that while one-third of workers said they expected to work till the age of 70, only 6% actually do. According to a CNBC article:

 

“More than half, 56%, of full-time workers in their early 50s get pushed out of their jobs (due to circumstances like a layoff) before they're ready to retire, according to a 2018 paper published by the Urban Institute.

 

"Job loss at older ages is really consequential," said Johnson, a report co-author. He attributes much of that workplace dynamic to ageism.

 

“Just 10% who suffered an involuntary job separation in their early 50s ever earn as much per week after their separation as before it, the Urban Institute paper said. In other words, 90% earn less — "often substantially less," Johnson said.

 

According to an article in USA Today:

 

“Roughly two-thirds of adults over 50 believe older workers face discrimination in the workplace, according to a new AARP report. Of that group, 90% believe ageism is commonplace.”

 

That is shocking in my opinion, that it is so commonplace that people expect it. A 2021 AARP study noted that 78% of older workers claimed to have seen or experienced workplace age discrimination!

     The number of people over 65 in the workforce has quadrupled since the mid-1980s and nearly a quarter of the workforce is 55 or older. An advisor from AARP noted that ageism has become an acceptable form of discrimination and that it is tolerated. While making room for the next generation may be seen as beneficial, when it’s done at the personal expense of older workers who need to survive, it seems less so, especially to those affected. Among the findings of the AARP report is that 20% of workers over 40 said they personally experienced age discrimination, 25% said they had personally heard negative comments about a co-worker’s age, and half of older workers said they were asked to provide a birth date on their application.

     Older workers may also want to work a bit less and have time available for things like health care issues. They may benefit more from remote or hybrid work, even though that may compel them to become more tech-savvy. I have had to learn new software and shared drive processes, which are common in lots of work. One aspect I love about working remotely is the saved time from commuting. My onsite jobs have had me commuting up to 2 hours or more a day or 10 hours a week. That is a lot of time driving and a lot of wear and tear on my vehicle.

     In a Metro article, a 60-year-old man who had been job searching for three years noted that he often got negative replies and came to expect them:

 

“I never seem to get past the front gate. Can’t even get an interview. It’s completely demoralising.”

 

Unfortunately, this has been my experience as well. I get an interview for about 5% of the jobs to which I apply. Some people actually resort to lying about their age to get consideration.

     But some people are working longer. A Washington Post headline reads ‘A big problem for young workers: 70- and 80-year-olds who won’t retire.’ The author Aden Barton, who looks quite young judging by his picture, cites issues like the difficulty of younger workers in getting promoted because of older employees still working. This is known as the ‘demographic traffic jam.’ However, the article he cites from 2019 blames the baby boomers aged at that time 54-74. 13 of those years, or 65%, are below full retirement age. Are they suggesting people should be pushed out of their jobs or made to retire early, or take pay cuts, and demotions to make way for younger workers who want to move up in the company?  People are living longer now which means they need to put back more for retirement. That is true for everyone but often more acute for those that do not have many years left in the workforce and have not invested enough. The graph below which the author gives does not really support his conclusion or his headline, showing that the amount of people over 70 who are still working is nearly as low as the number of males or females (not both) aged 16-19 who are working. Most of those are still in high school.

     Another article notes that the average retirement age has risen to 62 in recent years. In 2002 about 1 in 20 or 5% of people aged 75 were still working but in 2022 that number rose to 1 in 12 or 8.3%. 19% of people over the age of 65 were still working in 2023. Apparently, that is double what it was over 35 years ago. An alarming statistic is that about half of those between 55 and 66 had no retirement savings at all. Projections from the Labor Department suggest that the share of younger workers in the workforce will flatline by 2032 which also suggests that we will need more older workers in the future.  

 

The Washington Post article does state some data that shows that in 1990 workers over 55 made up 10% of the workforce while now they make up 23%. There seem to be three simple reasons for this: later full retirement age, longer lifespans, and more post-retirement expenses. He also cites a growing income gap between workers over 55 and those under 35. The data grew the most between 2000 and 2004, not too long after the full retirement age was raised from 65 to 67 in 1990. Since then, it has remained fairly steady. See for yourself below. Thus, I would say his argument does not really pass muster looking at the graphic evidence he cites. Perhaps he should have gotten an older co-worker to review his article. I am just kidding here, of course. 

 

It’s not just people who don’t want to quit but many can’t quit because they need the money. I can understand being annoyed at the ultra-wealthy exec who chooses to keep working, perhaps just to remain relevant, but if it is a need then that is not a fair argument at all. Apparently, a lot of older workers are over-represented in certain low-paying jobs like housekeeping, home health care, personal care, and janitorial work.

     Apparently, some people also feel shame at being retired, perhaps feeling that they are no longer contributing. I would not feel that way and I would say that there are many important things to do besides paid work for those who say they would be bored with retirement. Others are happy to be retired at a young age. My dad had to retire in his mid-50s for health reasons. He died at 62. Luckily for me, my health seems to be just fine, although it might be nice to have health insurance. I’ll be happy to get Medicare at 65. Hopefully, I will be able to afford it as it costs money too.

     Data from Morningstar Center for Retirement & Policy Studies suggest that 45% of Americans who retire at 65 may run out of money in retirement. That will drop closer to half of that if they retire at 70. Thus, the article seems to suggest that working longer is the solution, while the Washington Post article says that is creating a problem for younger workers’ ability to move up.

     Skill needs can change for jobs over time as technology changes. Unfortunately, my experience has been that employers seem to be unwilling to train. They seem to want people who are experienced in the exact job, not just a related one, even if it’s just a few years vs. decades in related jobs. Employers also may have demographic targets, whether officially or not, to hire so many people of each age group. This is in addition to any DEI considerations that employers may have. Older workers may be ideal if the job requires extensive experience in the exact position, but from my experience that is rare. According to research by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College sought to assess the demand for older workers. They reviewed and combined databases and studies into a meta-study. They found that older workers are considered to be as productive or slightly more productive than younger workers and also as costly or more costly than younger workers. They didn’t mention anything about ageism. They did note that there is no evidence that older workers lower productivity

 

      Meanwhile, Larry Fink has suggested that more people working to full retirement age would be a good solution to shoring up social security. I prefer Bernie Sanders’ proposal to make the ultra-wealthy pay more into social security (though I rarely agree with Bernie). Fink is pretty wealthy so he may not like that solution! He suggests treating older workers better so that is good. It’s a nice thought but it doesn’t change anything. It’s hard to work longer when you can’t find any work. As someone who has been self-employed, I paid a lot into Social Security and Medicare since I had to pay the extra 7.65% for years. According to the Benzinga article about Fink’s suggestion:

 

“In 2023, a survey from the Society for Human Resource Management found that 30% of workers felt discriminated against due to their age. Of these workers, 72% said it made them feel like quitting their jobs. Many workers age 50 and older also stated they feel less valuable compared to younger workers. Older workers are often overlooked for younger, perceived as more dynamic candidates.”

 

     Younger workers have been associated with energy, enthusiasm, and eagerness. I was watching a special on Scripps News about Ageism in the Workplace when they noted some clues that employers were seeking younger hires. One was saying they are seeking energetic workers. I just applied for a job that said just that. Many others say they are seeking energetic, driven, hard-working, enthusiastic, or ambitious candidates or ones with a strong work ethic. Are such statements useful or necessary? Do they betray a preference for younger candidates? I’m qualified for the job to which I applied and my fingers are crossed but that doesn’t make me feel better about it. My calm demeanor was once apparently misinterpreted by a supervisor as a lack of enthusiasm. Another issue I have come across is that getting older is real. I think as one gets older it may take one a bit longer to learn a new skill. I am not sure if this is a part of the natural cognitive decline that comes with age or just my own experience. I learn lots of new things. I read quite a lot. I write quite a lot. I contemplate quite a lot. I process a vast amount of information. Perhaps that competes with work learning. I have worked a lot of overtime in my life but have also had gaps between work and between jobs. These days I don’t really want to work overtime, but I will if I must. Most jobs I have had have required it at least occasionally.

     Other older workers are faced with serious issues such as being unable to physically do their physically demanding job. Sometimes that can’t really be helped. Other times one might be able to shift to a less physically demanding position.

     Many of the suggested ways for older people to get hired involve trying to de-emphasize one’s age and experience. I think this is bullshit. One article said to try to look and appear younger in order to pre-empt age discrimination. BS, I say.  I do some of these like keeping my resume concise and relevant. However, I try to be open about my age in interviews by emphasizing my work experiences. We older workers sometimes face the issue of being overqualified but often that is about the particular job that is available. In places where there are few jobs, one is likely to apply anyway and hope for the best. I’ve tried a few different strategies in interviews such as being fairly indifferent and perhaps more relaxed where the job was really too far away, or I didn’t think I had a decent chance. For other interviews, I did significant research and study. I like to learn about new things so anytime I see a job description that sounds interesting I read about the subject and sometimes write about it. I tend to keep my resume general rather than focused. I use a cover letter to add some focuses targeted to the job posted. I used to make quite a lot of money working as a consultant but that had gone down steadily before I got laid off without any possibility of return. I had to consider lower pay, including very low pay and even some manufacturing and warehouse positions. I’m sure that kind of work has changed a bit from 35 or 40 years ago when I used to do it, although it’s not on my resume.

     Changing the type of work one does can be a solution for some. The Michigan Retirement Research Center found that 40% to 50% of people over 50 change occupations after turning 50. I have been doing that out of necessity, but I had a bad experience with a new job in a new field. I got fired a few weeks after a review that was shocking and insulting. I wasn’t expecting a bad review that was based on false information, misunderstandings, and misperceptions. Interestingly, I was told I wasn’t enthusiastic enough (a common observation about older workers). I questioned and protested the review and thought my explanations were convincing but apparently not. I was not given an adequate explanation. I was simply told that I didn’t fit in. It was a humiliating experience. I’m quite sure that I was treated unfairly. I liked parts of the job and felt fairly competent at it although it had its challenges. I didn’t like some aspects of the job, and I felt kind of cramped by the culture, but I was willing to put up with it. But alas, there was nothing I could do.

 

“…most states have at-will employment laws. An at-will employee can be fired at any time for any reason and without warning — and without having to establish “just cause.”

 

One article noted:

 

“You can have all the skills and experience in the world, but employers will dismiss a candidate who isn't a good fit for their company culture. But why would you want that job anyway?”

 

Well, because I needed it. I don’t want to have a repeat of a situation like that. I am only willing to take so much for a job. I paid my dues since first being employed 49 years ago as a morning paper boy seven days a week, and I am willing to work hard but I am less willing to take crap than I was when I was younger. I’ve had jobs where I had to sleep in my car, do my business in the woods (legal or not), get harassed, and I’ve worked over 24 hours multiple times. I’ve also worked remotely, which is quite nice due to that lack of commuting which saves car use and time, and I can usually get enough sleep.

     I have heard of other older workers being pushed into retirement before their full retirement age, presumably to make way for younger workers who could pay less. Now, I am all for younger workers getting opportunities to advance and make money, but not at the expense of older workers.

As for me, I just want to find a job I can be good at, relatively enjoy, learn and be useful, and make enough money to survive. All I can do is keep trying and I will.

      

 

 

 

References:

Why working longer is a bad retirement plan. Greg Iacurci. CNBC. October 31, 2023. Why working longer is a bad retirement plan (msn.com)

Older workers find a less tolerant workplace: Why many say age discrimination abounds. Daniel de Visé. USA Today. February 11, 2024. Older workers see rampant age discrimination in the office (usatoday.com)

17 Reasons Employers Won't Hire People Over 50. Eline Thornton. Planning to Organize. June 21, 2024. 17 Reasons Employers Won't Hire People Over 50 (msn.com)

Over 50 and looking for a job? Here’s what you need to know about age and work. Cheryl Winokur Munk. CNBC. July 10, 2022. Over 50 and looking for a job? Here's what to know about age and work (cnbc.com)

Here's The Tough Reality About Job Hunting When You're Over 50. Veuer. Here's The Tough Reality About Job Hunting When You're Over 50 | Watch (msn.com)

I've been applying for jobs for 3 years. I'm only 60 but know my age is to blame. Isaac Mockton. Metro. March 18, 2023. I've been applying for jobs for 3 years. I'm only 60 but know my age is to blame (msn.com)

Older Workers Deserve Rest—but the Country Isn’t Letting Them Have It. Rebecca Gordon. The Nation. September 11, 2024. Older Workers Deserve Rest—but the Country Isn’t Letting Them Have It (msn.com)

Opinion:  A big problem for young workers: 70- and 80-year-olds who won’t retire. Aden Barton. Washinton Post. August 26, 2024. Opinion | Young workers face a new challenge: Older workers aren’t retiring - The Washington Post

45% of Americans Who Retire at This Age Will Likely Run Out of Money. Chris Kissell. Money Talks News. September 5, 2024. 45% of Americans Who Retire at This Age Will Likely Run Out of Money (msn.com)

Why Older Workers Are Now the Better Choice. Howard Tullman. January 23, 2024. Inc. Why Older Workers Are Now the Better Choice (msn.com)

'I don't know how I'm going to work until I'm 67'. Chloe Harcombe. BBC News. June 26, 2024. 'I don't know how I'm going to work until I'm 67' (msn.com)

Are employers willing to hire older workers? Alicia H. Munnell. Market Watch. April 8, 2024. Are employers willing to hire older workers? (msn.com)

Can Employer Demand Support Older Workers Today…And Tomorrow? Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Geoffrey T. Sanzenbacher. March 12, 2024. Can Employer Demand Support Older Workers Today…And Tomorrow? – Center for Retirement Research (bc.edu)

Larry Fink's Proposal For Saving Social Security Is To Attract More Older Americans To Work Until Full Retirement Age — But Should They? Kaili Killpack. Benzinga. June 27, 2024. Larry Fink's Proposal For Saving Social Security Is To Attract More Older Americans To Work Until Full Retirement Age — But Should They? (msn.com)

More older Americans are working past retirement than ever, but why? Zeleb.es. The Daily Digest. March 9, 2024.  More older Americans are working past retirement than ever, but why? (msn.com)

How to Get a Job When You're Actually Over 50. Nicole Bruce. Cheapism. April 22, 2024. How to Get a Job When You're Actually Over 50 (msn.com)

Age in America: Examining Age in the American Workplace. Scripps News. June 2024. Age in America: Are mandatory retirement ages legal? (msn.com)

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has an important message for the next wave of US retirees — here's how he wants to solve the country's retirement crisis. Moneywise. July 2, 2024. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has an important message for the next wave of US retirees — here's how he wants to solve the country's retirement crisis (msn.com)

14 Reasons Baby Boomers Are Struggling to Find Employment. Stephanie Allen. June 28, 2024. 14 Reasons Baby Boomers Are Struggling to Find Employment (msn.com)