Graphics of the Week: Offshore Wind, Geothermal, Oil Projects, Consumer Price Index, and Private Water System Wells

     The first graphic is a chart from Rystad Energy showing the non-China offshore wind forecast for capacity additions. As always, we must remember that wind operates at an avg. of 30-35% capacity or less than half that of natural gas. The graph shows that offshore wind capacity is expected to grow from 42GW in 2024 to 160GW in 2030 and to a whopping 521GW by 2040. That has it doubling every 3 years to 2030 and then growing a little slower to 2040. With the current high costs of offshore wind deployment, problems with manufactured components including turbine blades, and financing difficulties for some projects, I am a bit skeptical we will reach those levels that fast. I would also guess that deployment will grow faster after 2030, but I could be wrong about that. The graph also shows that floating wind is set to begin growing in 2030.

 

     Graphic #2, from an article in Knowable Magazine, is a schematic showing the different kinds of geothermal wells being drilled for power. It may need to be zoomed in. In addition to these there are shallow wells being drilled for geothermal heat pump applications in the residential and commercial sectors. The graphic shows four kinds of geothermal wells: 1) the conventional binary (one producing well and one injection well) pattern. All of the wells here are binary with a producer and an injector; 2) an enhanced geothermal well where the wells are drilled then hydraulically fractured to create a hydrothermal reservoir; 3) a closed-loop geothermal well where the producer and injector are connected by multiple legs; 4) deep super-hot geothermal wells.

 

     Graphic #3 shows oil projects planned by oil majors in the years ahead to 2030. This one is by Energy Intelligence and shows projects planned by BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies. These projects are expected to reach FID (or not) soon. ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies are expected to add the most capacity through 2026 but BP, Chevron, with Chevron and BP picking up after that. Shell is expected to add the least capacity of the bunch.

     Offshore Guyana is a major focus for ExxonMobil. Chevron will also be very active there. Other growth areas include U.S. shale (mostly Permian), U.S. Gulf of Mexico, offshore Mediterranean, offshore Angola, offshore Namibia, and Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Abu Dhabi, Oman, and Nigeria.

 

     Graphic #4 shows an updated Consumer Price Index. This proxies the pace of inflation over the last several years. It is finally falling closer to the normal levels of 2.5% growth. We have seen as much as 9% growth at the peak of the inflation trend. It is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

     Graphic #5 shows the kinds of private water system wells that are commonly drilled, and the types of groundwater aquifers commonly encountered. This one is by KnowYourH2O Water Research Center.

 

References:

Geothermal power heats up. Katarina Zimmer. Knowable Magazine. April 11, 2024. Geothermal power heats up | Knowable Magazine

Fit for FID? How Majors' Projects Stack Up. Tom Daly and Casey Merriman, Editor James Bourne. Energy Intelligence. August 20, 2024.  Fit for FID? How Majors' Projects Stack Up | Energy Intelligence

Private Water Wells and Private Water Systems. Know Your H20 Water Research Center. Private Water Wells and Private Drinking Water Systems, Well Water, Unregulated (knowyourh2o.com)