Climate
Science Paradigm Development, Clean Energy Policy Development, and Clean Energy
Technology Development, Simultaneous Timelines
For perspective, I think these
simultaneous timelines are important to review for several reasons: to show the
evolution of climate science understanding and the changing in levels of
certainty, to show what and how low-carbon technologies are developing and how
fast, to show how clean energy policies are developing, and to show where we
are, how far we have come, and how far we have to go. I have included the
development of EV technology and Tesla’s development of both EV batteries and
stationary storage. I have also included a few of my own clean energy buys to
give perspective from a middle-class energy scientist who likes clean tech. Policy
developments show where they have been effective, like the Australian solar
boom and where they have not been effective. I trace the development of the
“pause” or “hiatus” in warming seen in John Christy and Roy Spencer’s NASA
satellite temperature data. I also include a timeline of climate skepticism.
1970’s
Aerosols from human activity shown to be increasing in
atmosphere and to have a cooling effect. Next Ice Age is a concern for some
scientists, but warming is more of a concern for others. Concerns over warming
prevail late in decade.
Climate research ramped up with creation of National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration in US.
Methane, CFCs, and ozone shown to contribute to global
warming.
Solar variation shown to affect climate.
Deforestation shown to affect climate.
1979
U.S. National Academy of Sciences predicts climate
sensitivity: doubling of CO2 makes average global temperature warm between 1.5
and 4.5 deg C. That is still the general range given today, over four decades
later.
1982
Greenland ice cores show that climate can change fast.
1985
Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 levels and temperature
changes were simultaneous. Still unclear which one forced the other.
1988
Climate scientist James Hansen speaks to Congress, warning
of the dangers of global warming. He says that it is affecting heat waves and
droughts.
Governments begin to consider the dangers of global warming.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is
established.
1990
1st IPCC report notes warming has been happening
and more is likely to come.
1991
Mt. Pinatubo erupts. Hansen and others predict cooling due
to the aerosols which is confirmed.
Global warming skeptics suggest warming is due to solar
variation. Data from following decades refute that assertion.
Denmark deploys first offshore wind project to take
advantage of stronger offshore winds.
1992
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change created in Rio de
Janeiro.
1995
2nd IPCC report highlights “signal” of
human-caused global warming and says increased likelihood of significant future
warming.[1]
Satellite-derived atmospheric temperature measurements by
John Christy and Roy Spencer at NASA show no warming. Their methodologies using
microwaves to measure temperatures at different altitudes are criticized by
others as having a high margin of error.
1996
GM builds and releases limited amount of EV1 fully electric
vehicles.
1997
Kyoto Protocol sets up targets for developed nations to
reduce carbon emissions.
1998
Remote Sensing Systems shows that Christy and Spencer’s
satellite readings are off due to an error, which they acknowledge, then re-adjust
their readings to show slight warming.
Alarmist climate scientist James Hansen debates skeptical
climate scientist Richard Lindzen, who thinks climate sensitivity is at the low
end or lower than IPCC estimates.
1999-2000’s
More pushback against climate action by some developed
countries and fossil fuel industries.
2000
Toyota releases Prius worldwide with hybrid electric engine.
2001
3rd IPCC report states that level of certainty
about future warming is increasing and that impacts could be severe. Scientists
show a general “paradigm shift” towards regarding global warming as a very
serious concern.
Ocean warming observed, confirmed, and found to generally match
atmospheric warming in models.
2000’s
State renewable energy mandates adopted by many US states in
different forms. Now estimated to be responsible for about half of renewables
generation in the US. By 2020 29 states have mandates.[2]
Calculating and comparing carbon footprints becomes popular.
Sustainability movement takes off.
Germany begins its Energiewende with generous feed-in
tariffs. It wouldn’t be until 2018 that renewables overtake coal in Germany,
since coal got a temporary revival in 2011 with the phasing out of nuclear
plants after Fukushima. In 2019 Coal plant phase out by 2038 announced but
could be speeded up. 2020 phase-out of feed-in tariffs has some generators
worried about future profitability.
2003
Heat waves in Europe cause many deaths. Since then, more vulnerable
people there have access to air conditioning and urban cooling.
Largest electricity blackout in US history on a hot day in
August in the Northeast and Midwest.
2004
Christy and Spencer adjusted their satellite readings
further based on errors found by others.
Europe initiates the world’s first carbon trading scheme.
2006
Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” movie convinces
many of the dangers of global warming but also creates more political
polarization about the subject.
China passes US as world’s biggest emitter of CO2.
I bought a Toyota Prius on the first day of 2006. Battery
replaced in 2017. It ran nearly 400,000 miles. The savings in gasoline costs
vs. my previous vehicle exceeded the price of the car – keep in mind high gas
prices in the late 2000’s and early 2010’s. Ironically the gas engine needs
replaced. May sell.
2007
4th IPCC report states it would be cheaper to
reduce emissions than deal with damaging effects of global warming.
Christy acknowledges warming but at a lesser rate than
ground temperatures show. By this time the satellite “pause” in warming and
Christy and Spencer’s data begin to be routinely touted by global warming
skeptics as they still are today.
Some US energy, utility, and chemical company CEOs formed
the Climate Change Initiative which advocated for action on climate change.[3]
Electricity consumption begins to plateau in EU and US.
UK overtakes Germany in relative decarbonization of the
electricity sector.
2008
Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change
(NIPCC) formed to counter IPCC, which they regard as politically motivated. Its
precursor organization is S. Fred Singer’s Science and Environmental Policy
Project founded in 1990 with views that disputed established scientific views
of global warming, ozone depletion, and secondhand smoke. They were also
sponsored by the conservative Heartland Institute and in 2009 by The Center for
the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change led by climate scientists Craig
and Sherwood Idso who argue for the benefits of CO2 and dispute scientific
consensus on climate change. The NIPCC with their sponsors produced the Climate
Change Reconsidered series with several book volumes from 2009 through 2015. I
read Idso, Carter, and Singer’s 2015 book Why Scientists Disagree About
Global Warming: The NIPCC Report on Scientific Consensus, where they made a
very good argument that the scientific consensus on climate change was less
solid than depicted, certainly nowhere near 97%. In 2017 Heartland Institute
sent 300,000 of these books to schools and colleges across the country,
presumably to counter the prevailing consensus narrative. I don’t recall the
book being overly biased, though certainly a minority view.[4] [5]
Al Gore promotes his movie, book, and slideshow with an
advertising blitz. Competitive Enterprise Institute and its leader Myron Ebell downplay
the dangers of global warming with their own media blitz.
Consistently high natural gas prices from about 2005 through
2008 lead to more experimentation with new extraction techniques that are
seeing more success. Shale gas fracking is underway. The financial downturn
lowered demand, so prices were able to drop.
2009
Incoming Obama administration economic stimulus package in
response to the global economic downturn includes $90 billion for clean energy
technology. Results are mixed with some $ lost during bad market timing for US
solar component manufacturing exemplified by the Solyndra bankruptcy. Battery
and EV research yield favorable results.
2010
Waxman-Markey Cap-and-Trade bill cancelled in US Congress.
It becomes apparent that “fracking” for shale gas with
horizontal drilling and high volume multi-staged hydraulic fracturing can
produce large quantities of natural gas and quickly increase supply enough to
keep prices low. Increasing oil supply would follow. Shale gas and oil resources
are shown to be continuous and predictable. As fracking grows public backlash
against it also grows, especially in areas without previous oil and gas
development. A decade later natural gas is consistently oversupplied, a third
of coal-fired generation has been replaced by natural gas and to a much lesser
extent renewables, and the decarbonization goals of cap-and-trade are exceeded.
Late 2000’s to mid – 2010’s
Corporate social responsibility touted on company websites but
often vaguely defined and detailed by companies. Expected in public relations
but no real detail required.
Less frequency of hurricanes after Katrina and Rita in 2005 suggests
climate change does not spur more of them even if there is more moisture in the
atmosphere and oceans are warmer. That would hold generally true until 2020
when there was a record number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the
Atlantic, although a few of those were added by new threshold of what constitutes
a storm. Activist media immediately re-cites link between hurricane frequency
and climate change. There is good evidence, however, for warmer oceans and a
warmer wetter atmosphere to lead to stronger storms.
2009
Copenhagen conference. No binding agreements.
Australia’s rooftop solar boom begins, aided by state
incentives, high electricity prices, and a good solar resource. Rooftop solar
deployment increases ten-fold in Australia from 2009-2011, with most of the
growth in South Australia.
2010’s
Most oil majors accept the basic tenets of global
warming/climate change and some, then more, accept that a carbon price at some
point is inevitable.
Competition, low-priced Chinese solar panels, and other
improvements make solar cheaper, and it begins to boom in US. Solar and wind,
with its Production Tax Credit, continue to benefit from subsidization in US.
Both solar and wind continue to get cheaper. Late in the decade there is some
parity with fossil energy sources.
Cities make low-carbon pledges in the US.
The slow but steady pace of ocean warming, and other factors
show that more warming is likely even if we stopped emitting carbon due to
delay in cycling through the ocean to the atmosphere. Thus, there is said to be
global warming “in the pipeline.”
More consideration of the influence of climate change on
extreme weather events. Much debate.
US leads the world in CO2 emissions reductions due to
fracking which allows cheap natural gas to replace coal (about 40%), major
energy efficiency improvements in fossil fuel and electricity sectors and among
end-users with new tech like LED lighting (about 40%), and new wind and solar
generation (about 20%).
Cryptocurrency mining exposed as a totally unnecessary waste
of power. However, the blockchain encryption technology that requires the computer
power, does have uses in energy and cybersecurity.
Tech companies move closer to net-zero with big investments
in wind and solar to power facilities and power-hungry data centers.
It becomes clear that summer sea ice melt in the Arctic and
glacial melt in Greenland are accelerating. Temperatures in the north are consistently
far above normal. One conclusion is that global warming is happening faster in
the Arctic, as models predicted.
Global LNG trade grows by 4 times from 2000 to 2020.
2011
Fukushima nuclear disaster helps prevent nuclear power from
becoming one of the stronger solutions to climate change. Japan shuts in other
nuclear plants. Germany announces nuclear phase-out.
Arctic amplification, the tendency of the North polar area
to warm faster than the global average, due to multiple causes, most notably
changes in summer sea ice extent, is confirmed by observational data, and
accepted as indisputable. The tendency is fed by positive feedbacks.
Nissan releases Leaf EV (December 2010). Begins building
them in Tennessee in 2013.
2013
Oceans and regional oscillations that produced El ninos
and La ninas considered to be main reason for so-called global warming
pause or hiatus in satellite data. Still debatable?
5th IPCC report shows greater confidence level in
anthropogenic warming and models, and potential impacts, especially of higher
warming scenarios. Global climate models continue to be refined and adjusted.
Predicted range of climate sensitivity remains 1.5 deg C – 4.5 deg C, as it was
in 1979. The IPCC avg. for estimated climate sensitivity is at 3.2 deg C.
Australia’s rooftop solar boom begins to penetrate the
commercial sector, 2013-2017.
2014
Tesla begins building first Gigafactory in Nevada.
I had a 4.3 kW solar array installed on south facing roof
with a 12-13-year payout. It’s been 6.5 years so I’m halfway there. No
noticeable loss of efficiency in that time. Zero maintenance. Fairly
predictable monthly and annual output. Payout slightly longer due to Ohio
changes in SREC market value.
2015
December – The COP 21 Paris Agreement signed onto by almost
every nation in the world. Commitments non-binding but most countries gather
data and organize plans of some sort.
Global average temperature now 1 deg C above pre-industrial
levels.
A few colder sections of winters in the US from Arctic polar
vortexes characterized by big dips in the jet stream thought to be related to climate
change.
Tesla announces the Tesla Powerwall, a new home lithium
battery storage product.
CO2 Coalition formed as a science-based group skeptical of
mainstream climate science.
Natural gas overtakes coal in US power generation.
2016
US under Trump officially announces it is exiting Paris
agreement, the only country to do so.
2018
Christy and Spencer, lamenting lack of funding, get a $1.5
million grant from Trump administration. Christy notes that their satellite
data could potentially be used to refute Obama climate actions.
Hurricane Harvey along the Gulf Coast produces record rain
and flooding from a large slow-moving storm that may have been enhanced by
climate change.
Solar accounts for over 5% of electricity in Australia
(compared to 1% in US).
Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory becomes highest-volume battery
manufacturing plant in the world. Economies of scale in manufacturing help
reduce battery costs.
An IPCC report considers the benefits of holding warming to
1.5 deg C. IPCC concludes that it would be preferable. The timeline for keeping
warming that low according to the models suggest that swifter action is needed.
Activists interpret that to mean we only have a few years till it’s too late
and we are beyond safe levels. Media amplifies those concerns. There are calls
for stronger mandates. (October)
GE Renewable Energy releases 12MW wind turbines for offshore
deployment.
2019
ESG movement takes off in the corporate world, including the
carbon-heavy energy sector. Emissions and climate assessments and risk plans
expected.
John Christy appointed to EPA science advisory board by
Trump administration.[6]
Wildfires and extreme weather events stir more climate
activism.
Deployments of microgrids continue to grow in US and globally.
Australia experiences dispatchable
energy shortages and blackouts due to heat wave, plants off-line, and
over-reliance on solar.
I bought a plug-in
hybrid vehicle. Installed a Level 2 charger. Enjoyed the car and the savings
until early 2020 when I crashed into a deer and totaled it. Then the pandemic happened
and I got laid off, so I wasn’t able to replace it.
According to the
International Energy Agency US led the world in decarbonization over the past
decade mostly due to fracking, efficiency improvements, and to a lesser extent,
renewables.
2020
UK’s Boris Johnson says he thinks all UK homes can be
powered by offshore wind by 2030. “Homes” represent about a third of UK energy.
UK expected to continue leading the world in offshore wind.
Heatwaves, wildfires, and hurricanes stir more activism and
media alarmism.
Coronavirus strikes. Lockdowns reduce energy demand.
Consideration of peak oil demand.
Countries, states, cities, companies, and utilities plan
net-zero pledges and consider potential paths.
China says it will become net-zero by 2060.[7]
Australia’s rooftop solar boom is deemed successful and
continues, with huge increases from 2017-2020.
Petro Nova CCUS project in Texas deemed an operational
success with consistent >90% capture rate and very little downtime. Project
shut down temporarily due to low oil prices – CO2 used for enhanced oil
recovery.
California experiences dispatchable energy shortages and
rolling brownouts due to heat wave, low wind conditions, plants off-line, closing
natural gas plants and over-reliance on solar.
Arctic amplification further confirmed by data that shows
clearly that the Arctic has warmed at roughly twice the rate as the rest of the
world.[8]
More US utilities announce decarbonization plans and make
net-zero pledges.
Electricity aggregation, including green electricity
aggregation to increase renewables and meet state RPSs, grows among US
municipalities.
Biden elected president in US with stated goal of ambitious
climate policy action, including a pledge to make US electricity sector carbon
neutral by 2035. This becomes more likely with a new Democratic Senate.
State of West Virginia still makes over 92% of its
electricity with coal, despite decarbonization trends and ready access to cheap
natural gas. Planned natural gas plants still facing obstacles.
Coal and oil still make up 80% of electricity generation in
the state of Hawaii.
Siemens Gamesa releases wind turbines for offshore
deployment that can reach 15MW with power boost. Deployment a couple of years
away.
Coronavirus results in an unexpected drop in global carbon
emissions. Expected to increase in 2021 as vaccine herd immunity develops.
Beyond
2020
2021
Post-pandemic economic recovery stimulus expected to
increase government spending on clean energy projects. Private spending
expected to increase as well.
Biden brings US back into Paris agreement. Biden suspends
oil and gas leasing on federal lands and cancels approval for Keystone XL
pipeline.
GM announces plan to not sell gasoline and diesel engines
for all light-duty vehicles by 2035.[9]
2022
EVs expected to be 15% of European auto market share.
First commercial deployment of a 300MW Allam Cycle natural
gas plant in US expected.
2023
Elon Musk predicts battery cost will be half of what it was
in 2020. {not looking likely Elon}
GM expects to have 20 EV models for sale.
NextEra Energy’s green hydrogen pilot project in Florida
expected to come online.
2025
China expects 20% of vehicles sold to be New Energy Vehicles
(NEVs), mostly EVs.
WoodMac predicts E-trucks in the US to grow by 27 times from
2019, from 2,000 to 54,000 on the road.
EV parity with ICE vehicles possible considering cheaper fuel
and maintenance costs for an EV vs ICE vehicle.
2030
EVs predicted to reach economic purchase parity with ICE
vehicles. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries predicted to overtake lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide
batteries in market share.
Deloitte predicts EVs to be 32% of US auto market share by
2030.
Global Wind Energy Council market analysis thinks as much as
22.6 GW off offshore wind could be built in the US by 2030.
GE and Siemens expect their hydrogen co-fired turbines that
can burn higher blends of hydrogen with natural gas to be available for
installation 2030-2035.
EU has a target of 40-gigawatts of electrolyzers by 2030.
Global fossil fuel consumption expected to peak 2030-2035.
It may happen sooner rather than later.
2050
Ground zero for Net-zero 2050.
2060
Ground zero for China Net-zero.
