A LinkedIn post by Alex
Passini states:
“Tehran’s four key reservoirs—Latyan, Lar, Mamloo, and
Karaj—are now below 10% capacity, putting the city of over 10 million on the
brink of a water crisis.”
“With almost no significant precipitation since last
winter, officials are reconsidering plans to relocate parts of the capital to
the Makran coast and have intensified cloud-seeding efforts, though experts say
its impact is minimal in such dry conditions.”
“The shrinking shorelines across all reservoirs
highlight a decline fueled not only by drought but also by years of
mismanagement, including unchecked groundwater use, inefficient agricultural
demands, and outdated water infrastructure.”
Tehran’s 10 million
residents, while not being ruthlessly murdered by their sinister leaders, have
been experiencing water rationing via nightly pressure cuts between midnight
and 5 AM. The entire country has been under a severe drought, according to a
story from November. There is even talk about evacuating Tehran of it doesn’t
rain enough in the near future. Many of Iran’s neighboring countries have
developed desalination plants to supply water. Iran’s sanctioned status as a
rogue country also affects its ability to keep up with modern water utility
technologies.
According to a November 2025
article in Grist:
“According to water issues analyst Nik Kowser, Iranians
are under the thumb of a “water mafia” — a shadowy and well-connected network
driving these megaprojects for their own gain. “Iran faces water bankruptcy,
with demand far outstripping supply,” Kowsar wrote in Time. “The collapse of
water security in Iran has been decades in the making and is rooted in a mania
for megaprojects — dam building, deep wells, and water transfer schemes — that
ignored the fundamentals of hydrology and ecological balance.”
Since over 82% of Iran is
considered arid or semi-arid, the chance of solving the water crisis without
adequate rain is not looking great. The country’s agricultural sector uses 90%
of the water supply.
“Tehran joins many, many other cities that have
approached Day Zero, and it certainly will not be the last. São Paulo in Brazil
and Cape Town, South Africa, had similar crises that ended with rainfall.
Tehran might not be so lucky in terms of its weather forecast, though.”
While Iran’s president
suggested in November that Tehran would have to be evacuated, others see that
as not possible and certainly not likely. If it ever happens, it would take
years.
Inside Climate News’ Katie
Surma writes:
“Decades of water depletion, dam building and repression
of scientists and environmentalists have driven Iran toward ecological crises
that are fueling protests rocking the country.”
Another once important water
reservoir in the country, Lake Urmia, has shrunk to one-tenth its past size.
Rivers have gone dry, and forests have dried up and died or have become
vulnerable to wildfires. Middle East scholar Eric Lob noted:
“The human cost is staggering. Crumbling infrastructure,
poorly designed irrigation systems and overdrawn aquifers have left farmers
unable to plant crops and cities forced to ration supplies. Tens of thousands
of people, including children, die prematurely each year from severe air and
water pollution. Water shortages and power outages have shuttered businesses
and left ordinary Iranians “worried about whether they’ll have enough water for
drinking, bathing and cleaning,” Lob said.
Ethnic minorities in the
country have had their water diverted to areas of the Persian majority. In many
ways, the regime is to blame for the water crisis, as Lob notes.
“Since the 1979 revolution, he said, the government has
used rural development projects to increase political legitimacy and popular
support—a process that gave rise to a “water mafia” within the military
establishment and the construction of hundreds of dams across the country.
“Organizations close to the government and military were
able to get contracts for these projects,” Lob said. “The goal was power and
profit-seeking over environmental protection and sustainability.”
“Scientists and activists have been repressed by the
state because what they were saying was inconvenient,” Lob said.
There is a class distinction
as well, with the wealthier areas of northern Tehran experiencing less
rationing and having better infrastructure.
Thus, poor environmental
planning, too many dams, ongoing drought, inefficient use of water for
agriculture, water system mismanagement, oppression of scientists and
engineers, sanctions, and degraded existing systems are all to blame for the
crisis.
According to a story from
yesterday in Climate Compass:
“Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi told reporters on
Saturday that the state will imminently start rationing water, even fully
shutting it off at night across the country if necessary. " as the country
faces one of its worst economic situations.
But that is not the only
groundwater issue affecting Iranians and Tehranis. Loss of vegetation can be
seen as a feedback that makes it worse:
“Uncontrolled expansion has also slashed the city's
vegetation cover by nearly 90 percent, replacing green spaces with impermeable
surfaces that impede rainfall from infiltrating the soil to replenish rivers
and groundwater aquifers. Tehran suffers severe land subsidence exceeding 30
centimeters per year because of excessive groundwater extraction, threatening
buildings and roads from below.”
The wealthy, who have
better water access, have also over-consumed water significantly, up to ten
times more than the average user. The issue is exacerbated by Iran’s water
subsidy policy.
“In 2024, urban consumers paid only 52 percent of the
actual costs for receiving their water, starving utilities of the resources to
effectively maintain supply networks while encouraging over-consumption. The
artificially low tariffs create a vicious cycle.”
Iran also subsidizes
agricultural water consumption. Since household consumption is just 8% of the
county’s water consumption, better management of agricultural water consumption
will certainly be one key to solving the crisis.
“Iran does not have the water and soil capacities, and
nearly 30 percent of agricultural produce is wasted due to a lack of
infrastructure, outdated irrigation practices and misguided crop selection.
This massive agricultural consumption makes household conservation efforts
almost meaningless in the broader picture.”
The article notes that Iran
depleted 70% of its groundwater over the past 50 years. The city is also
subsiding at a rate of 25 centimeters per year due to groundwater withdrawal.
About 62% of Iran’s water comes from groundwater.
References:
How
Iran's Aquifers Are Collapsing Under Overuse. Lorand Pottino. Climate Compass.
November 21, 2025. How Iran's Aquifers Are Collapsing
Under Overuse
Tehran’s
water crisis is a warning for every thirsty city. Shayna Korol, Vox/ Grist.
November 22, 2025. Tehran’s water crisis is a warning
for every thirsty city
President
of Iran Says It’s Forced to Move Its Entire Capital City. Joe Wilkins.
Futurism. November 23, 2025. President of Iran Says It’s Forced to
Move Its Entire Capital City
Iran’s
Regime Has Survived War, Sanctions and Uprising. Environmental Crises May Bring
It Down: Decades of water depletion, dam building and repression of scientists
and environmentalists have driven Iran toward ecological crises that are
fueling protests rocking the country. Katie Surma. Inside Climate News. January
14, 2026. Iran’s
Regime Has Survived War, Sanctions and Uprising. Environmental Crises May Bring
It Down. - Inside Climate News
Tehran's
day zero: How the city is preparing for water rationing. Jeff Blaumberg.
Climate Compass. January 25, 2026. Tehran's
day zero: How the city is preparing for water rationing
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