Rapid Temperature Flips May Be an Underestimated Effect of Climate Change, New Research Suggests

      New research published in Nature Communications involving a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100 found that in the areas assessed, about 60% of them have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid temperature flips. The authors also conclude that the increase in temperature flips is also increasing and amplifying threats to natural and socio-economic systems. Potential impacts include early flowering of crops followed by frost damage, power outages, and damage to vulnerable species sensitive to temperature changes.

     Temperature flips are, of course, of two types, warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm. Warm-to-cold flip events are preceded by wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flip events follow drier and sunnier conditions.

     The research also modeled and estimated population exposure and compared impacts on regions with different economic conditions, noting that those in the poorer, less developed latitudes are more exposed to the impacts.

     According to the paper:

“To reveal the mechanisms underlying the temperature flips, we conduct two composite analyzes. The first compares the atmospheric conditions between flip and non-flip events, where non-flip events refer to either warm or cold events that do not flip to the opposite extremes. We examine the composite anomalies of relevant atmospheric variables on the last day of the warm (or cold) event for both warm-to-cold (or cold-to-warm) flip and non-flip events. This comparison highlights the differences in pre-existing atmospheric conditions that may influence whether a temperature flip occurs. The second analysis focuses on the evolution of atmospheric conditions during flip events by examining anomalies throughout the transition phase of the flips, which is defined as the period from the last day of the preceding warm (or cold) event to the first day of the following cold (or warm) event. This analysis allows identification of the key physical processes governing temperature flips.”

     The researchers note that it is urgent that we better understand and mitigate the accelerating hazardous temperature flips in light of global warming.

     The figure below shows the physical processes that are changed by temperature flips.

 

     

 

 

 

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Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world. Sijia Wu, Ming Luo, Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau, Wei Zhang, Lin Wang, Zhen Liu, Lijie Lin, Yijing Wang, Erjia Ge, Jianfeng Li, Yuanchao Fan, Yimin Chen, Weilin Liao, Xiaoyu Wang, Xiaocong Xu, Zhixin Qi, Ziwei Huang, Faith Ka Shun Chan, David Yongqin Chen, Xiaoping Liu & Tao Pei. Nature Communications. volume 16, Article number: 3543. April 22, 2025. Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world | Nature Communications