It gets cold in Mongolia. The capital city, Ulaanbaatar, is one of the coldest capitals in the world. I had a roommate who moved to Mongolia in 2013. She would say that it was cold, so I pulled up Ulaanbaatar in my phone weather app and indeed it was often quite cold. Overnight temps of -20 F and even -40 F are not uncommon. I also noticed the moniker “smoke” applied like we might apply fog. However, the smoke comes from burning coal. The country is on the steppes where there are not many trees so along with coal being burned in power plants, people heat their homes and gers (yurts) with coal. The “smoke” from burning raw coal contains pollutants, including ground-level ozone, particulate pollution, carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide.
Like LA and Salt Lake City,
Ulaanbaatar is also subject to weather inversions or thermal inversions where a
layer of cool air gets trapped below a layer of warm air, keeping pollutants
near the ground. The ger district around the city has over 200,000 gers which
mainly burn raw coal so 80% of the pollution comes from these homes. Air
pollution is a serious public health problem in the city. There are high
pneumonia rates and high rates of other respiratory infections among children.
A 2019 NPR report notes that:
“In late January 2018, Ulaanbaatar made international
headlines when one government-installed sensor reported a PM2.5 concentration
of 3,320 per cubic meter. That level was 133 times what the World Health
Organization considers safe.”
The city, which contains
nearly half of the country’s population, banned the burning of raw coal in
2019. The government began promoting semicoke, a byproduct of coal that is more
expensive but can burn up to twice as long with less pollution. Wealthier
citizens can afford air filters.
A 2024 report by Climatescope
by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, noted that Mongolia should increase its
renewable energy generation since they have good wind and solar availability.
Some of the data are shown below. The country does hope to increase that share
of total energy production from the current 10% to up to 30% of capacity by
2030 but that won’t be easy and may not happen. Of course, 30% capacity does
not mean 30% renewables since they are intermittent sources. Renewables produce
only about 8% of power generation. However, renewables growth has stalled for
several reasons: coal use is subsidized so renewables subsidies can’t compete
well, the cost of renewables is still too high, the power grid is aging and not
in good shape, and the country is large with a small population which makes
non-urban grid extensions prohibitively expensive. For home heating, coal is
still much cheaper in 2025 than electric heating, especially for gers which are
not well-insulated. Wealthy citizens often leave the capital for the winter if
they are able. The city itself is heated mainly by district heating which is
derived from coal heating water for steam heat. The gers are not tapped in.
The solutions offered in the
Bloomberg article: more renewables build-out, connecting with other power grids
in Russia and China, and hydrogen, are not really feasible solutions.
Renewables are costly and intermittent, the costs to run transmission lines to
Russia and China are too high, and green hydrogen is even less cost-effective.
These are not solutions. Exacerbating the problem is traffic in the city which
is high and produces even more particulates from burning diesel fuel.
Coal is also the source of
the vast majority of Mongolian carbon emissions as shown below.
One Likely Solution is Looming on the Horizon:
Natural Gas
The March 2025
article by AFP notes:
“The city's deputy governor responsible for air
pollution, Amartuvshin Amgalanbayar, promised change.”
“This year, 20,000 households will switch to gas, resulting
in a 15 percent reduction in pollution,” he said.
He also noted that more people will be moved from the ger
district into apartments.
One looming solution is coal
seam gas, also known as coalbed methane. Australian company TMK Energy is
leading the way. As reported by Andrew Todd in the Sydney Morning Herald in
December 2024:
“Gas pioneer TMK Energy has taken a major step toward
commercial gas production at its mammoth Gurvantes project in Mongolia, signing
a binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) with German-backed power generation
provider Jens Energie LLC to import a gas fired power plant from Germany in
early 2025 at no cost to TMK.”
“The agreement paves the way for TMK to become
Mongolia’s first coal seam gas-to-power project, with electricity set to flow
from TMK’s mammoth Gurvantes XXXV coal seam gas project to the local grid as
soon as next year.”
Currently, TMK has a six-well
pilot production site, the Lucky Fox project, to feed natural gas to the plant.
The coal seams in the area are very thick and should be able to provide large
quantities of gas.
“Located in the South Gobi desert, a region known for
its mammoth coal deposits, the Gurvantes XXXV project holds a 1.2 trillion
cubic feet (Tcf) contingent resource, with further upside potential from its
5.3Tcf prospective resource.”
That is quite a lot of gas and can sustain the country for years and allow it to transition away from coal. The project is close to Northern China markets, and they may be able to sell the gas to them as well. TMK now owns 100% of the Gurvantes project. The downside is that the coal seam gas is closer to Northern China than to Ulaanbaatar so it would need to be pipelined closer to the city in order to feed power plants and gas service in the city. However, I have not heard of any plans to build a pipeline to supply TMK's coal seam gas to Ulaanbaatar, about 700km (435 miles) to the north.
On April 7, 2025, TMK
reported that their wells were approaching critical desorption pressure. A
lowering of pressure allows gas desorbed onto the coal to be released as
pressure is drawn down by dewatering. According to the Sydney Morning Herald:
“TMK Energy’s chief executive officer Dougal Ferguson
said: “The project continues to show encouraging signs with many of the pilot
production wells delivering record monthly gas rates together with the first
evidence of gas slugging from the coal seams, indicating we are progressing
towards critical desorption pressure.”
Another gas possibility for
Mongolia is the Russian Power of Siberia -2 Pipeline proposal. Mongolia and
China have both put the brakes on that project, temporarily. Mongolia has
refused to fund the project for the next four years and China is not expecting
new gas demand to be critical until around 2030 and is exploring other options
such as Turkmenistan. However, the project is still likely to be built at some
point. According to the Mongolian government as reported by Pravda Hungary:
“The pipeline will run underground over a 960-kilometer
stretch of the country, covering 6 regions and 22 municipalities. The
environmental impact study of the project will be completed by the end of the
third quarter of 2025. The state is already preparing the territories for
construction.”
“The scale of the project is impressive: 12,000 jobs
will be created during the construction phase, and 1,000 during operation. In
addition to transit to China, this will allow gasification of Darkhan,
Ulaanbaatar, Choira and Sainshand, helping Mongolia reduce chronic air
pollution.”
While I am totally for sanctioning Russian gas, in this case, unsanctioned Russian gas could provide a great health and environmental benefit for Ulaanbaatar, especially as the pipeline route takes it very close to the city. I am a bit surprised that Russia has not built a pipeline just to supply Ulaanbaatar previously since their gas fields are reasonably close. I suspect economics was the reason.
In any case, it looks like
TMK’s project will be able to provide gas for Southern Mongolia as in the
gas-to-power project with Jens and possibly Northern China which has
significant gas infrastructure.
“The power plant, expected to be operational by April
2025, will provide electricity to the local grid, marking a significant
milestone in the country’s energy landscape. TMK has committed to supplying
5000 cubic metres of gas per day by June 2025, with Jens retaining the option
to purchase up to 15,000 cubic metres daily for an initial two-year period,
extendable for another two years.”
Another big question for the future is whether coal seam
gas can be delivered to Ulaanbaatar. If the Power of Siberia -2 is built, there
won’t be a need for it, although domestic gas would provide more local economic
benefits than imported gas.
In a possible future with
abundant inexpensive natural gas, the city of Ulaanbaatar could heat the steam
for district heating with natural gas instead of coal and expand its existing
gas distribution network for home heating.
References:
Mongolia's
children choke in toxic pollution. AFP. March 11, 2025. Mongolia's children choke in toxic
pollution
Mongolia's
Capital Banned Coal To Fix Its Pollution Problem. Will It Work? Emily Kwong.
NPR. Morning Edition. July 30, 2019. Mongolia's Capital Banned Coal To Fix
Its Pollution Problem. Will It Work? : NPR
Mongolia:
CO2 Country Profile. Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser. Our World In Data. Mongolia: CO2 Country Profile - Our
World in Data
Leaning
on coal despite abundant renewable resources. Climatescope by Bloomberg NEF. 2024.
Climatescope 2024 | Leaning on coal
despite abundant renewable resources.
TMK
fast-tracks Mongolia’s first coal seam gas-to-power generation. In partnership
with BULLS N’ BEARS. Andrew Todd. Sydney Morning Herald. December 17, 2024. TMK
fast-tracks Mongolia’s first coal seam gas-to-power generation
Gurvantes
XXXV South Gobi Natural Gas Project. TMK Energy. GURVANTES
XXXV SOUTH GOBI NATURAL GAS PROJECT – TMK Energy Limited (ASX:TMK)
China
In Eurasia Briefing: The Power of Siberia-2 Pipeline Hits A Snag In Mongolia.
Reid Standish. Radio Free Europe. August 21, 2024. China
In Eurasia Briefing: The Power of Siberia-2 Pipeline Hits A Snag In Mongolia
One
key country is holding up a natural-gas pipeline that would deepen ties between
Russia and China. Filip De Mott, Business Insider. August 22, 2024. Mongolia
Stalling Siberia-2 Natural Gas Pipeline Between Russia and China - Markets
Insider
TMK
turns jets on in Mongolia as it sets new gas production record. Craig Nolan.
Sydney Moring Herald. April 7, 2025. TMK
turns jets on in Mongolia as it sets new gas production record
TMK
Energy: Transforming Mongolia’s energy with coal seam gas and strategic
innovation. Kosec. January 3, 2025. TMK
Energy | Leading Mongolia’s Transition to Clean Energy
The
government of Mongolia reveals details of the future project for the transit of
Russian gas to China/ Pravda Hungary. April 7, 2025. The
government of Mongolia reveals details of the future project for the transit of
Russian gas to China - Pravda Hungary
Putin
makes renewed push for gas pipeline deal with China. Christy Lee. Voice of
America. September 5, 2024. Putin
makes renewed push for gas pipeline deal with China
Transforming
the Ulaanbaatar Heating Sector: Technology options for decarbonization. Anna
Nilsson, Gustavo de Vivero, Pablo Lopez Legarreta, Thomas Day. New Climate. October
2022. Transforming
the Ulaanbaatar Heating Sector
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