Bloomberg Touts Biden’s Climate/Clean Energy Legacy: Harris Not Emphasizing It Now Due to Swing-State Voter Concerns

 

     Bloomberg just published an article touting Biden’s climate and clean energy legacy, which is clearly record-breaking, while also noting that Harris was keeping relatively quiet about it to allay concerns from swing-state voters about it being too much spending for too little return. The government investment in clean energy in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Reduction Act have led to massive private investment in clean energy projects. The graph below shows how private investment in clean energy has grown while the private investment in oil & gas that dropped off during Covid has not recovered from 2020 levels. This does not mean more oil & gas investment is not needed but suggests that less will be needed in the future, especially when clean energy can actually make up the full amount of the growth in energy needed annually, which has yet to occur.

     Biden’s climate/clean energy legacy is huge and shows that he delivered for the climate change voters and perhaps we should acknowledge that that is enough incentivization for now. Thus, Harris can pivot to other issues that resonate more with voters than climate action, which is really not that high on most voters’ concerns. Bloomberg notes:

 

“Just 3% of registered voters in seven battleground states say climate change is the most important issue for them this November, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll taken in late August. Only 39% say climate is “very important.”

 

     Up to 90% of those private investments associated with the IRA went to red-leaning areas, according to E2 as the graph below shows.

 

     Bloomberg considers that Kamala Harris is well aware of how backlash to a green energy agenda can hurt her campaign. Perhaps enough has been invested for now? The Biden clean energy investment boom graph is shown below.

 

     As the graph below shows, the U.S. is second behind China in CO2 emissions. How much that will drop in the years to come is not known but we should be able to begin dropping emissions significantly by 2030. Perhaps in the early-mid 2030s U.S. emissions will drop below those of India, which are still rising considerably due mainly to coal use.

 

     The graph below shows the changes in emissions projections after the IRA. Harris can confidently say that Biden’s effort on emissions reduction was phenomenal without having to commit more resources or lobby for more action. Of course, climate hawks say we need to do more and point out that we would still be behind our Paris Accord commitments 2030 trajectory. However, many of us think we are good for now with the IRA’s record-breaking investments. If the GOP comes to power, either through the presidential election or through control of Congress, there would likely be attempts to scale back some of the planned spending associated with the IRA.

 

 

References:

Kamala Harris Turns Biden's $493 Billion Climate Legacy Into a Footnote. Jennifer A Dlouhy and Ari Natter. Bloomberg. September 25, 2024.  Kamala Harris Turns Biden's $493 Billion Climate Legacy Into a Footnote (msn.com)

The Energy Dome CO2 Battery: Closed Loop System Can Last 30+ Years with No Degradation

 

     An interesting new grid-scale energy storage solution is emerging that uses CO2 phase changes to store, charge, and discharge energy. This is another project that utilizes supercritical CO2 as a working fluid. However, the way it is used here is innovative. Italian company Energy Dome has developed the Energy Dome which holds the CO2. The system operates in a closed loop. It offers long-duration energy storage, for up to 24 hours. Back in 2022 Energy Dome explained:

 

“CO2 is the perfect fluid to store energy cost effectively in a closed thermodynamic process as it is one of the few gases that can be condensed and stored as a liquid under pressure at ambient temperature,” Energy Dome explains. “This allows for high density energy storage without the need to go at extreme cryogenic temperatures.”

 

“In charging mode, the CO2 is drawn from an atmospheric gasholder, the Dome, compressed and then stored under pressure at ambient temperature in a high density supercritical or liquid state,” they add. “When energy needs to be released, the CO2 is evaporated and expanded into a turbine, and then returned back to the atmospheric gasholder, ready for the next charging cycle.”

 

     While similar results can be obtained with compressed air systems or liquid air systems, the fact that CO2 can be stored at ambient temps as a liquid reduces costs over those systems. Back in 2022, Energy Dome was taking pre-orders for their tech all over the world of facilities 100-200MW in size. This is big energy storage. Energy Dome claims their tech can be deployed at half the cost of lithium-ion batteries.

 

     The new project is the Columbia Energy Storage Project in Pacific, Wisconsin. The project is hosted by US gas and electricity supplier Alliant Energy. Clean Technica notes that the source of the CO2 is unknown. One might speculate that CO2 of sufficient purity captured from Midwest ethanol refining plants is a potential source. They also did not note how much CO2 is needed for each similar-sized closed-loop system. In July Energy Dome was awarded $7 million from the DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. The grant covers the early part of Phase 1 of the project for 16-22 months.  It will be the first Energy Dome facility in North America, once the application gets final approval from regulators. Construction should begin in 2026, with plans to be online by 2027.

    

     The closed-loop system is expected to last 30+ years with no degradation, compared to lithium-ion grid batteries which degrade through time and have a lifespan of about 12 years. The company notes that the process uses only water, steel, and CO2 to operate. The pilot project unit in Sardinia, Italy was 20MW in size. The Wisconsin project can be scaled up to 200MW utilizing 10 20MW units.  They also note that all tech components are readily available and do not need to be sourced from China like lithium, other metals, and their processing. They emphasize that off-the-shelf equipment, standard components, modularity, and scalability are features of the Energy Dome system. Alliant Energy notes that the project can “deliver enough electricity to power approximately 18,000 Wisconsin homes for 10 hours on a single charge” and that it can complement lithium-ion storage:

 

“This new technology can work in tandem with shorter-duration lithium-ion batteries. While lithium-ion batteries are highly efficient and can help meet day-to-day peak customer demands, they’re less practical for storage longer than 10 hours.”

 

     The data below summarizes the CO2 battery’s operation.

 

     The next data shows the grid services that the long-duration Energy Dome Co2 battery can offer, and the table below shows some comparisons of the Energy Dome with lithium-ion batteries.

 

 

 

 

      The video animation below shows the charging and discharging cycles. One can see that the large tank of ambient gaseous CO2 can be compressed into supercritical CO2 in vessels of much smaller size. 

 

 

References:

New technology offers mind-blowing breakthrough for storing energy: 'Very efficient and a good source of power'. Jon Turi. The Cool Down. September 24, 2024. New technology offers mind-blowing breakthrough for storing energy: 'Very efficient and a good source of power' (msn.com)

CO2 Battery. Energy Dome. CO2 Battery - Energy Dome

Giant Bubble Of CO2 To Store Renewable Energy For At Least 10 Hours. Tina Casey. Clean Technica. August 26, 2024. Giant Bubble Of CO2 For Long Duration Energy Storage - CleanTechnica

New technology boosts grid reliability. Grant Barton. Alliant Energy. November 3, 2023. Alliant Energy - New technology boosts grid reliability

Instant Long Duration Energy Storage: Just Add Carbon Dioxide. Tina Casey. Clean Technica. April 22, 2022. Instant Long Duration Energy Storage: Just Add Carbon Dioxide (cleantechnica.com)

Columbia Energy Storage Project. Alliant Energy. Alliant Energy - Columbia Energy Storage Project

 

The Future of the Internal Combustion Engine: New Designs, Efficiency Improvements, and Hydrogen Combustion Engines

 

     EVs are touted as the future of cars but that future is not set in stone. Costs and reliability are current concerns but those will likely improve over time. One wildcard that could upend that future is groundbreaking improvement in internal combustion engines coming to fruition. It is still up in the air whether that will happen, but efficiency improvements continue, and new engine designs are taking shape and being tested. Some older designs are being revisited as well.

 

Opposed Piston Engines

     The opposed piston engine is an example of an old design being revisited. These have been around for a century. They have mostly been used in tanks, ships, trains, and submarines, but many think they can be adapted for road vehicles. It has no valves or cylinder heads. It is a two-stroke engine. It is more efficient and offers lower fuel costs and fewer emissions. A 1930s plane with an opposed piston engine could go 6000 miles on a tank of fuel. A Top Speed article from October 2023 notes:

“Achates Power, the leading developer of OP engines, aims to license its technology to automakers and has already achieved success with engine debuts on a Ford F-150 and a Peterbilt tractor. However, the main challenge lies in changing people's perceptions of two-stroke engines and gaining mainstream acceptance.”

The OP engine retains heat, enough to ignite the fuel mixture so no spark plugs are needed. In a 2021 webinar organized by Calstart, Achates claimed that its engines can produce 65 percent lower NOx emissions than the standard set by the California Air Resources Board for 2027. They estimate that trucks with OP engines can save 20-28.5 % in fuel costs. Achates did a 2018 test of OP technology with Ford. Cummins is building an advanced combat OP engine for the U.S. military with Achates technology. Achates’s goal is to have OP engines for sale in 2027. The technology is hoped to compete with EVs as a lower emissions vehicle. It is expected to be cheaper to build and with fewer parts than a conventional four-stroke ICE vehicle.

 

 

Toyota’s Next-Gen Combustion Engines

      Toyota has been at the forefront of increasing ICE efficiency in recent years. Toyota released engines in 2018 with 40% thermal efficiency. An article in Slash Gear gives some context about their successful focus on hybrids and plug-in hybrids as well as their new more efficient hybrid engines they plan to put in production in a couple years.

“The company's internal documents illuminate its 1:6:90 rule, which states that the same amount of raw material used to generate one fully electric vehicle can be used to make six plug-in hybrids or as many as 90 hybrid cars. Besides the smaller requirement for raw materials, Toyota estimates that these 90 hybrid cars combined offset 37 times the carbon emissions than a single EV.”

That means that 37 times more emissions can be offset with hybrids than for EVs with a similar amount of raw materials? I’m not sure of the details or implications here but it would seem that this advocates for hybrids and plug-in hybrids as better for emissions per raw materials used.

“Studies substantiate this argument to some extent, indicating that a mid-size hybrid has a lower lifecycle carbon footprint than a compact EV when driven for 150,000 miles, owing to the energy-intensive battery production process. Despite criticism, Toyota and its sister companies, Mazda and Subaru, uphold their commitment to ICEs. They have pledged to continue investing and working together in fuel-based technology, a move that would also benefit hundreds of suppliers struggling with the shift to electric vehicles. With the challenges of lagging charging infrastructure and the high cost of EVs in mind, Toyota is banking on rising demand for fuel-efficient ICEs, especially hybrids.”

     Toyota’s new hybrid engines are lighter, 10-20% smaller with comparable power to regular ICE engines, and up to 30% greater efficiency. Again, Slash Gear explains:

“These improvements are achieved by implementing a shorter piston stroke. The shorter piston strokes result in decreased torque, which is compensated for by the electric motor. This approach enhances efficiency by reducing the maximum RPM these newer engines can make. Smaller piston strokes, leading to compact engines, can allow for lowered front hoods. This, in turn, would improve aerodynamics, reduce the center of gravity, and minimize cabin vibrations. Toyota is expected to commence the production of these engines in 2026, ...”

     Toyota’s new hybrid engines can run on diesel, gasoline, synthetic e-fuels, and hydrogen. With hydrogen, they can achieve 50% efficiency. I believe they can run on blends of fuel as well. The video below shows the engine versions and their capabilities.

 

Everything We Know So Far About Toyota's Game-Changing Next-Gen Combustion Engines (msn.com)

 

Astron Aerospace Develops New High-Efficiency ICE Engines

     I wrote about Astron Aerospace’s Omega 1 prototype engine in my 2022 book, Natural Gas and Decarbonization. I will reproduce that section below. The company’s latest version of an automobile engine has changed a bit, running on hydrogen and offering 60% efficiency, better than hydrogen fuel cells. Apparently, I was right in my estimation from a few years ago about 60% efficiency.

 

 

Astron Aerospace’s Omega 1 Internal Combustion Active Linear Engine

     This new internal combustion engine design is exciting to read and hear about, but it is still in the early stages, with only a functional prototype so far. Indications thus far are that it will be cost-competitive, much more fuel efficient and produce less emissions, and high performance. The new engine design was invented by a veteran of the aerospace industry and is expected to focus first on aerospace applications. It is the world’s first engine with an active linear power transfer. Power is transferred through the single rotating shaft. There is no offset crankshaft, eccentric shaft, or reciprocating pistons. It comes with “a pre-chamber, connected to a pair of chambers, that separates cold intake air from exhaust gas, removing the issue of exhaust gas overlap.” They expect to produce a small-scale model in a couple of years. It has several advantages over current ICE engines: a simplified design, air-cooled, and superior efficiency due to less losses from friction, pumping, and other parasitic losses. It is touted as “more powerful, lighter, efficient, and simpler than a turbine engine.” Cost may be an issue for its automotive adoption but eventually, it may be competitive. An automotive single-engine version is expected to weigh just 35lbs, have 160 horsepower and, 170lbs of torque, and have as many parts as a lawnmower engine. Oil changes are expected to have a 50,000-mile interval with maintenance costs much lower. The design can be scaled in a stacked manner with potential to be used for many applications. The design can be tweaked to run on any fuel including diesel, gasoline, biofuels, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen. Running on hydrogen, it could outcompete fuel cells for use in long-haul trucking. Materials used directly affect cost so the better aerospace versions with materials like titanium will have better performance. Combustion improvements decrease pollutants. The prototype is called Omega 1, with planned stages up to Omega 5.  I have not seen numbers on comparative emissions or fuel efficiency, but it is reputed to be theoretically capable of 80% thermal efficiency, which is a big gain over the 20-30% average. Toyota released engines in 2018 with 40% thermal efficiency, so my rough guess is that the automotive version could have 60%. Astron notes: “A large improvement in combustion and overall efficiency comes from the forced air supercharged intake at between 200 and 300 psi.” It has less friction and less parasitic heat and pumping losses compared to a piston engine. It has a “skip-fire” capability that also increases efficiency so that firing rates decrease when not accelerating. If the design succeeds it could make ICE vehicles less emitting and less costly to run and maintain. Time will tell. It could also be used as a range extender for an EV, running on hydrogen perhaps.   

 

Astron Aerospace’s New 60% Efficiency, Zero Emissions Hydrogen ICE Engine: H2 Starfire

     The Omega 1 has apparently been superseded by Astron’s new H2 Starfire hydrogen ICE engine that achieves 60% efficiency with zero combustion emissions. An article in Interesting Engineering gives some details about the H2 Starfire:

“Astron’s H2Starfire achieves these using two sets of counter-rotating rotors: one aluminum half does the intake and compression jobs, while the titanium half at the rear handles expansion and exhaust.”

“Inside the engine, temperatures reach 1,400 Fahrenheit (760 degrees Celsius), and here, hydrogen can burn cleanly to produce energy, noise, and mechanical vibrations that motorheads fear they will miss.”

“The company claims it has achieved another major milestone by eliminating the need for water cooling. This has also helped it reduce the complexity of its design and weight, which gives it an efficiency boost.”

“H2Starfire’s design is quite linear and avoids the use of apex seals. The company claims that the engine is frictionless, and its tolerances are so tight that only timing gears and bearings need oiling. This has been achieved with a simplistic design of the engine, which consists of only 82 parts.”

     The H2 Starfire cut the number of parts from 114 in the Omega 1 to 82 parts. A single H2 Starfire engine weighs 120 lbs., and produces 400 horsepower and 500 lb-ft of torque. It measures 11.4 x 12.5 x 17.3 inches, making it very compact. Astron claims that the H2 Starfire can compete at one-fourth the cost of hydrogen fuel cells or EV batteries. While this is great news, I am still not sure of the commercialization timeline for this engine or if it has technological hurdles yet to overcome. The video below gives more details.

 

 

The H2 Starfire Engine May Be The Most Promising Disruptor In The EV Industry (msn.com)

Hydrogen ICE Retrofits and Newbuilds for Long-Haul Trucking

     Companies such as Volvo and MAN are developing hydrogen ICE retrofits for long-haul trucks. These include replacing the conventional ICE engine with a hydrogen ICE engine. The cost of these is expected to be below that of hydrogen fuel cells. Reuter reported in August that:

“In its first pilot project, MAN will deliver around 200 trucks with engines that run on hydrogen to European customers next year to test in their fleets, a key step on the way towards mass production.”

     Volvo plans to test their hydrogen combustion engines in 2026. Both companies will continue to build hydrogen fuel cell trucks as well. Westport Fuel Systems provided fuel systems for 6000 ICE trucks in Europe that run on natural gas that can later be converted to run on hydrogen. Many of these engines can run on diesel, then be converted to natural gas when it is more available, then be converted to hydrogen when it becomes more available and decarbonized, whether blue hydrogen made from natural gas with carbon capture or green hydrogen from electrolysis of water.

     Hydrogen vehicles also need pressurized fuel tanks that are larger than diesel tanks. These can be included with new vehicles or retrofitted. Getting them to fit can be a challenge. However, that problem is being addressed, partially by changing the shape of the tanks.

 

 

References:

Your Next Green Car May Run on Gas and Get 100 Miles to the Gallon. David H. Freedman. Newsweek. September 11, 2023. Your Next Green Car May Run on Gas and Get 100 Miles to the Gallon (msn.com)

Weight, Efficiency, and Environment. Astron Aerospace.

A New Internal Combustion Engine Produces Nearly Zero Harmful Emissions. Chris Young. Interesting Engineering. January 28, 2022. 

Savior Of Internal Combustion: Here’s Why Opposed-Piston Engines Are Becoming Popular Again. Moses Karomo. Top Speed. October 4, 2023. Savior Of Internal Combustion: Here’s Why Opposed-Piston Engines Are Becoming Popular Again (msn.com)

Opposed Piston Engines: What To Know About The Crazy New Configuration. Michael De Kock. Hot Cars. September 2023. Opposed Piston Engines: What To Know About The Crazy New Configuration (msn.com)

Thermal Efficiency Of Diesel Engines Explained: Why It's Important. Joe Capraro. Slash Gear. May 2024. Thermal pend thast future Efficiency Of Diesel Engines Explained: Why It's Important (msn.com) 

Everything We Know So Far About Toyota's Game-Changing Next-Gen Combustion Engines. Top Speed. July 25, 2024. Everything We Know So Far About Toyota's Game-Changing Next-Gen Combustion Engines (msn.com)

Everything We Know About The New Combustion Engines Toyota's Working To Release Soon. Tushar Mehta. Slash Gear. August 11, 2024. Everything We Know About The New Combustion Engines Toyota's Working To Release Soon (msn.com)

Truck makers look toward hydrogen to keep old combustion engines on the road: 'Everybody is working on this'. Stephen Proctor. The Cool Down, August 30, 2024. Truck makers look toward hydrogen to keep old combustion engines on the road: 'Everybody is working on this' (msn.com)

The H2 Starfire Engine May Be the Most Promising Disruptor in The EV Industry. Top Speed. September 8, 2024. The H2 Starfire Engine May Be The Most Promising Disruptor In The EV Industry (msn.com)

Astron’s hydrogen engine achieves record 60% efficiency with 0 emissions. Ameya Paleja. Interesting Engineering. August 26, 2024. Astron’s hydrogen engine achieves record 60% efficiency with 0 emissions (msn.com)

The Future of Driving Is Here: E-Fuels vs. EVs. José Bossellini. Tork US. August 30, 2024. The Future of Driving Is Here: E-Fuels vs. EVs (msn.com)

Big truckmakers bet on hydrogen to extend combustion engine life. Christina Amann and Nick Carey. Reuters. August 1, 2024. Big truckmakers bet on hydrogen to extend combustion engine life | Reuters

The 2030s Will Make or Break EVs, Hydrogen, CCUS, Geothermal, Small Modular Nuclear, and More.

 

     In the U.S. IRA funding to 2032 (unless cut back by Congress) and comparable private capital has been laid down for projects such as these, proposed and under construction. More pilots, tests, hubs, and projects of different types and sizes will yield performance data that can enable financial analysis, and better forecasting, and spur technology improvements.

     Hydrogen projects are just getting started. They will not affect natural gas demand much for many years or decades to come. Blue hydrogen projects use natural gas so they will in a sense replace natural gas with natural gas. Green hydrogen projects are too expensive to make much of a dent. Thus, hydrogen use will remain small and insignificant even as many new projects are rolled out.

     CCS projects are slow, expensive, and can have high O&M costs. They are expected to gradually and eventually make a dent in emissions reduction. These reductions will remain minimal, probably for a decade, unless successes come fast, and improvements are found and deployed.

     Geothermal won’t make much of a dent in any production any time soon, and perhaps never. There are some great projects that will add incremental energy production and emissions reduction, but they still cost a lot. Technology improvements in enhanced geothermal via hydraulic fracturing and in deeper hotter geothermal could be wildcards, but not in the near term. Perhaps by the 2040s, we will see real enhancements.

     Small modular nuclear (SMR) has been bogged down by regulatory hurdles, costs, and timeframes. There are projects in the works that will be online later this decade and into the 2030s but it may be the mid-2030s or later before they begin to make a dent in energy production.

     Other projects like biofuels, renewable natural gas, and renewable diesel will grow but are limited by the total resources available and especially by cost. They will not have much of an effect on energy production.

     All these technologies are great and offer partial solutions for emissions reduction, but they will not be enough. Wind and solar will help but they have constraints. They are expensive, intermittent, and unreliable. They are overly dependent on Chinese mineral resources and supply chains.

 

 

Despite Automakers Currently Pulling Back from EVs They Will Get Better in the Future

     When energy transition minerals and minerals processing can be decoupled a bit from China, when new battery chemistries make batteries lighter and cheaper, when solid-state batteries make EV batteries safer, when ranges are increased to 600 and 1000 miles, when battery lives get longer when charging infrastructure is more available, accessible, and function, and when charging times are faster, EVs will proliferate. This is also dependent on cost. When EVs achieve some kind of cost parity with ICE vehicles, EVs will be seen as better due to their lower powering costs and their lower maintenance costs. 

     Hybrid EVs already offer reasonable prices, fast payouts, and low operating costs. BMW and German Technology company Deep Drive are working on a dual rotor hub-mounted in-wheel electric motor system. They think their in-wheel motor design represents a paradigm shift in EV motors. The dual rotor design increases efficiency and torque. In-wheel motors can also save space and enable some redesigning. BMW and Deep Drive are conducting ongoing real-world testing currently. According to an article in Interesting Engineering:

“At the top of the line, DeepDrive’s RM 2400 targets performance-oriented vehicles, including sports cars, with an impressive 2400 Nm of torque and 250kW of peak power, all while weighing only 37 kg.”

“Notably, all of DeepDrive’s wheel hub motors boast up to 20% greater energy efficiency compared to conventional electric motors, promising reduced ownership costs and a greener footprint.”

     These kinds of hybrids are known as extended range EVs (EREVs). Hyundai reported just weeks ago that they plan to offer EREVs with in-wheel motors that offer a range of 560 miles beginning in 2027. Along with BMW and Hyundai, Mazda, and Stellantis are working on EREVs. 

      China's  Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC) has a new in-wheel engine that revs up to 30,000 rpms. It is 330mm in diameter and weighs just 37 lbs. It produces about 201 brake horsepower (bhp) of output. There is no need for a gear box, drive shaft, and other parts of the drive train, saving space, materials, and weight. The range on GAC's in-wheel engine is increased by 31 miles, which is not stellar but still an advantage. 

   

  

     When EVs really do take off, so will electrification. More than EVs will be charged. Heavy equipment, trucks, buses, trains, ships, grid-scale batteries, AI, and more will add more demand to power grids. One wildcard that could affect EV proliferation is improvements in ICE vehicles, especially efficiency improvements that reduce emissions, fuel use, and costs. 

 

 

Some Projects are Being Canceled: Not Unexpected but Always Concerning

     First-of-a-kind projects can be affected by immature technologies, unsolved manufacturing and construction issues, and other snags that make cost overruns, delays, downtime, and high O&M costs more likely. Some projects are deemed technically or economically unfeasible.

     As expected, several CCS projects have been canceled. Norwegian energy company Equinor recently announced the cancelation of a major ‘blue hydrogen’ project that included a planned hydrogen pipeline from the North Sea to Germany, which would have been the world’s first offshore hydrogen pipeline. They cited high costs and lack of demand to buy their hydrogen as factors in their decision. They could not get the long-term contracts they needed due partially to an immature hydrogen market. They will continue with their onshore hydrogen projects in the Netherlands and the UK.

 

 

I Think That This Means We Will Need Natural Gas at High Levels for Decades to Come

 

     While forecasts suggest that oil demand will drop, we will still need oil. When electrification really takes off in the 2030s, we will need more power on the grid. This is already happening with the high-energy use of AI. New plans are being made to build new natural gas power plants, revive shuttered nuclear plants, and delay retirements of coal plants and old inefficient natural gas plants. This acknowledges that wind and solar alone will not be adequate. Concerns about power grid reliability are real and meeting demand growth could be challenging. In the U.S. natural gas is best suited to meeting new demand despite hopes by some to deeply decarbonize the power grid. Most power scenarios show continued natural gas usage. Some show higher use, some flat use, and others diminishing use. With numerous planned coal retirements on the horizon along with the increases in demand it is hard to see a scenario without at least flat natural use and it seems likely to me that natural gas use will increase in the near term, perhaps for the next 10-20 years.

 

References:

 

Energy giant abandons ‘blue hydrogen’ plans. Jonathan Leake. The Telegraph. September 21, 2024. Energy giant abandons ‘blue hydrogen’ plans (msn.com)

Discovery could lead to longer-lasting EV batteries, hasten energy transition. Science X staff. Tech Xplore. September 12, 2024. Discovery could lead to longer-lasting EV batteries, hasten energy transition (msn.com)

In-wheel motors: BMW’s new engine experiment can boost EVs’ range. Aman Tripathi. Interesting Engineering. July 20, 2024. In-wheel motors: BMW’s new engine experiment can boost EVs’ range (msn.com)

Hyundai's New Hybrids Prove Gas Engines Aren't Dead (But They're Not What You'd Think). Alex Hevesy. Slash Gear. August 28, 2024. Hyundai's New Hybrids Prove Gas Engines Aren't Dead (But They're Not What You'd Think) (msn.com)

China’s compact in-wheel engine promises 201 bhp output, enhanced EV range. Abhishek Bhardwaj. Interesting Engineering. September 9, 2024. China’s compact in-wheel engine promises 201 bhp output, enhanced EV range (msn.com)

EIA Provides Update on Hydrogen Co-Firing Projects at U.S. Power Plants

 

     The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently gave an update on hydrogen do-firing at U.S. power plants. As the map below shows, there are currently ten projects that are ongoing. Five of those tested hydrogen co-firing at various percentages, in 2022 and 2023. The H2 percentages ranged from 5% to 44%. One of the tests was conducted at the A.J. Mihm Generating Station in Upper Michigan using 25% hydrogen in one of the station’s three 18.8-MW reciprocating internal combustion engines. It is unclear whether these projects are currently and regularly burning H2 at the plants and at what percentages. Two of the projects plan to upgrade existing facilities to burn hydrogen. Of those, one in Florida owned by Duke Energy, a 74 MW simple cycle peaking plant is expected to be upgraded to burn 100% hydrogen. The other, in California, is expected to burn 30% H2 by the end of the decade and possibly up to 100% after that. The last three projects are new combined-cycle plants being built with hydrogen blending capabilities. The turbines in the power plants are outfitted and adjusted for hydrogen co-firing. Two of the three plan to burn 30% hydrogen. The other one, Kindle Energy’s 678-MW Magnolia Power Plant in Louisiana is expected to be online in 2025 with the ability to cofire up to 50% hydrogen.

     Hydrogen production is being supported at the federal level through tax credits and the IRA. A sensible way to Add hydrogen at power plants is to make it at or very near those plants so transporting it is minimized. This also minimizes costs associated with compressing it. The development of hydrogen hubs around the country is set to take off with new funding. Carbon capture at hydrogen production facilities that utilize steam methane reforming to make it, is able to capture high percentages of high-purity CO2.

 

A Note on H2 % and CO2 Emissions

 

     Hydrogen is less dense and less energy dense than natural gas so adding it only replaces a little more than one-third of the natural gas energy, or closer to 40%. Thus, when a blend contains 30% hydrogen it results in just a 12% drop in CO2 emissions, and at that rate a 90% hydrogen blend would result in a 36% reduction in CO2 emissions.

 

References:

U.S. electric power sector explores hydrogen cofiring at natural gas-fired plants. Energy Information Administration. September 12, 2024. U.S. electric power sector explores hydrogen cofiring at natural gas-fired plants - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Oil Theft by Cross-Border Criminal Gangs in the Permian Basin. (Energy Scams Part 3)

 

     The prevalence of the Mexican cartels is a testament to the failure of the Mexican government to reign them in, including AMLO’s government, which has clearly not done enough. These people are dangerous, violent, and a threat to all citizens and visitors as has been amply demonstrated.

     The latest crime scheme has been the theft of oil from Permian Basin wells and supply chains. This was first reported in May of 2024 by the Washington Examiner. They reported then that criminal gangs were recruiting illegal immigrants to aid them in organized oil theft. The theft has been small in scale and is not expected to grow too much but it can be damaging and disruptive to the small independent producers it often targets. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) noted then that Cuban nationals had been settling in West Texas and were getting involved in the oil theft networks. Matt Coday, president and founder of the Oil & Gas Workers Association noted:

 

“Truckloads of oil are being stolen from small, independent oil producers. Oilfield instruments, trucks, equipment, and even work boots and clothes have been stolen. These crimes hurt every American and smaller, independent producers especially.” 

 

     Apparently, the problem was first noted in 2023. The Washington Examiner explains:

“Oil tanker trucks are pulling up to storage tanks and siphoning oil from them, then driving away. Other thieves are taking scrap metal and pipes on site, as well as stealing large quantities of water and dirt, to be sold on the black market.”

     This is organized crime, plain and simple. Copper theft, a recurring problem in many places, also occurs in conjunction with it. When I worked directly for oil and gas companies in Appalachia, we occasionally had issues with damaged equipment, stolen equipment, and stolen oil but these were not organized crime efforts, more opportunist locals or disgruntled locals.

     In South Texas, local police and sheriffs are being trained to check documents from pulled-over drivers to better understand the possible involvement of illegal immigrants. At the time Gonzales and local law enforcement began trying to reign in the criminal networks, convening a task force and coordinating with the FBI. These criminal gangs are also involved in human trafficking, drug smuggling, gasoline theft, and apparently car smuggling. They have infiltrated the oil industry in Mexico and oil theft is their new cross-border enterprise.

     Fast forward to September 2024 and Gonzales is preparing legislation to crack down on criminal rings responsible for the theft. The legislation aims to optimize local, tribal, state, and federal cooperation, increase penalties for stealing oil or equipment, permanently fund the oil theft task force, and increase police presence and funding. The sharing of intelligence and resources is one aspect of the task force.

     Stealing gasoline is a more recent expansion of the criminal gangs as the Washington Examiner reports:

 

Oil thieves have recently expanded to stealing gasoline, according to Gonzales, who recalled a conversation with a gas station owner in West Texas.

 

"They have these vans that they cut the bottom out of, and they drive over the the cap of where the tanks are off to the side," said Gonzales. "They'll cut the lock, and they'll siphon out hundreds of gallons of gas from the gas station."

 

     These are brazen attacks on American businesses. A single oil truckload can be valued at around $15,000 to $20,000. That much gasoline would have a similar value. There are also reports of an oil thief assaulting an oil company employee.

     This problem needs to be stamped out. We do not need Mexican cartels stealing American oil and equipment. That is perhaps one reason Mexico does not advance its own oil industry. I also believe we need to aid Mexico in stamping out the cartels in Mexico. These are violent criminal gangs that are often seen as local heroes due to their (ill-gotten) wealth distribution. However, the Mexican government has to do much more. These cartels and other gangs are also involved in the human trafficking networks that bring more illegal migrants to the U.S. for profit. Thus, we need stronger border control as well.

 

 

References:

 

Texas oil thefts linked to illegal immigration spark federal response. Anna Giaritelli. Washington Examiner. September 20, 2024. Texas oil thefts linked to illegal immigration spark federal response (msn.com)

Illegal immigrants stealing oil from Permian basin near Texas border. Anna Giaritelli. Washington Examiner. May 10, 2024. Illegal immigrants stealing oil from Permian basin near Texas border - Washington Examiner

Risk Assessment: Summary and Review of Chapter 32 of Environmental Health: From Global to Local. Scott Bartell (Editor: Howard Frumkin, 2005), Pages 940-960

     I have written about risk assessment previously. With this post, I want to reinforce some of that writing with a similar assessment of risk assessment (wink) from an Environmental Health textbook. Quantitative calculation of risk is a predictive approach that relies on science as much as possible but also may rely heavily on statistical techniques and probabilities.

     Here, risk assessment is defined as “the process of identifying and evaluating adverse events that could occur in defined scenarios.” Kaplan, in 1997 described it as an attempt to answer three questions: What can happen? How likely is it to happen? And what are the consequences if it happens? People who live in, work in, or visit an environment that is contaminated may be at risk for health impacts. Water, wildlife, food, soil, and air may become contaminated environments. Environmental health risk assessment can be seen as a quantitative framework for evaluating and combining evidence from toxicology, epidemiology, and other disciplines that can aid our understanding of risks. The author notes that risk assessment itself is not a science but a synthesis of scientific data that is utilized to inform policy. Thus, it is a mixture of science and judgment.

     An example used in this chapter is the ingestion of chloroform as a byproduct of water disinfection by chlorine compounds. U.S. drinking water levels of chloroform average 1 to 90 ug/L. Although chlorination of drinking water is “one of the most effective public health interventions ever conceived,” chloroform in sufficient quantities may cause or contribute to cancer. Risk assessment is primarily used to help determine acceptable limits for specific pollutants in air, water, and living beings, and also to determine what emissions levels are acceptable from industry and machines like automobiles.

     The 1983 book by the National Research Council (NRC), Risk Assessment in the Federal Government, which I utilized in my previous analysis, also known as the “red book,” explains risk assessment as a composite process of four elements: 1) hazard identification, 2) dose-response assessment, 3) exposure assessment, and 4) risk characterization. The first three inform the synthesis, which is risk characterization.

 

 

     Hazard identification often relies on evidence from toxicology and epidemiology. Hazard identification can be simple or complex. It is simpler if only one contaminant is present. It can be complex when two or more contaminants are present. He notes that early risk assessment efforts focused heavily on cancer risks. EPA keeps a registry of toxic substances and their known hazards.

     Dose-response assessment seeks to describe a quantitative relationship between exposure and diseases. This is usually a quantitative model of the toxic response from exposure to a known quantity of pollutants. Dose-response curves, or models may be generated for different species and extrapolated for other species based on a better-understood curve from another species. The author describes more about dose-response modeling later in the chapter.  

     Exposure assessment, according to the NRC “includes the estimation or measurement of the magnitude, duration, and timing of human exposures to the agent of concern.” Exposure assessments can be difficult to conduct, and routes of exposure and levels of exposure must be plausible and preferably accurately quantifiable. That is not always the case. Summary values, such as time-averaged exposure rates are often used. Default assumptions are sometimes made that may not fit the exposure at hand.

     Risk characterization involves combining the information from the previous assessments to estimate the response and the probability of response to the exposure from the hazard. Mathematically, the exposure often holds more weight than the hazard in the response. Thus, the response probability is compared to the “background response” from an unexposed person or animal. These are summarized as relative risk, additional risk, attributable risk, and excess risk.

Since risk usually involves significant unknowns, its study involves calculating statistical probabilities with potentially high margins of error. Risk characterization should involve identifying and discussing qualitative uncertainties.

     A recurring uncertainty is whether health impacts at high exposures can be used to predict the health impacts of lower exposures. This is known as low-dose extrapolation. He notes: “Risk estimation should actually be called low-dose interpolation when data from both lower and higher doses are used to fit the dose-response model.” He also notes that due to the inherent uncertainties, some of which are hard to see, quantitative uncertainty analysis has come to be utilized more than qualitative uncertainty analysis.

     Risk management involves developing strategies, communicating them to relevant parties, and making decisions on how to address the issue. NRC points out that risk assessment and risk management should be kept separate but also be mutually informative.

     De minimus risk refers to levels of risk that are acceptable or not statistically significant from a social perspective. For example, one in a million is often used as a threshold for cancer risk.

     Safety assessment involves the determination of safe exposure levels, focusing on what is safe rather than what is harmful. It used to be conducted by determining no-observed-adverse-effect-levels (NOAELs) and divided by 'uncertainty factors.' He notes that NOAELs have largely been replaced by model-based estimates where the extra risk is 1%, 5%, or 10%. Dose-response modeling and risk management decisions regarding thresholds of acceptable risk are used to arrive at these “benchmark doses.”

     The risks of any activity must be weighed against the benefits. He again gives the example of water system chlorination which has been extremely beneficial for human health even though there are some risks of cancer from chlorination byproducts like chloroform. The risks of not chlorinating are deemed to be much higher than the risks of chlorinating, which are still there. Risk-benefit analysis also seems (to me) to be a natural inclination for humans who want to protect themselves from unnecessary harm. It must be done logically, reasonably, and comprehensively in order to get the most accurate assessment.

     Cost-benefit analysis is a common feature of risk analysis. It is required that any new federal environmental law be put through some form of cost-benefit analysis. In cost-benefit analysis abatement costs are compared to a metric known as willingness to pay, referring to how much one is willing to pay for a certain level of risk. Deaths avoided may be compared to the statistical value of a human life metric, which itself varies depending on the wealth of the society. It can be messy and controversial, but it does provide a comparative metric.

     Decision Analysis, also called Alternatives Analysis, is a consideration and comparison of multiple options and scenarios. Best management practices may be arrived at by comparing methods. Decision analysis is comparing options and overlaps with cost-benefit analysis.

      The Precautionary Principle is a method that is popular in some places and for some issues. The author quips that while the Precautionary Principle is often seen as an alternative to risk assessment, it can also be seen as a risk management strategy. He mentions it being applied in cases of global warming, bioterrorism, and genetic engineering. There are many arguments that point out its downsides including that it does not give value to benefits, that it is often applied randomly pre-emptively by exploiting uncertainty, that it leads to costs and harms (my examples: banning golden rice preventing needed Vitamin A from being ditributed, banning glyphosate in France leading to lower crop yoelds, going full organic farming in Sri Lanka which resulted in severely reduced yields, Japan shutting down nuclear plants after Fukushima which made heat costs and pollution rise, and banning DDT, preventing its use in preventing malaria when applied to mosquito screens).

     Next, Bartell returns to dose-response modeling and its use in risk assessment. These models may be mechanistic, biologically based, or biologically motivated. These models often rely on toxicology data. Monotonic dose-response models are expressed via a 'tolerance distribution' as shown below. The second graph is an example of three dose-response model types utilizing the same data.

 

     Uncertainty Analysis was deemed an important method in the NRC red book. It can be qualitative or quantitative. One way it is quantitative is by giving a range or distribution of reasonable risk estimates. Interval analysis is a type of uncertainty analysis that compares best-case and worst-case scenarios and estimates the risk twice, once based on each scenario. Probabilistic risk analysis is a type of uncertainty analysis that uses probability distributions. These are statistical methods such as Monte Carlo simulations that are often used in probability analysis for environmental risk assessment. There are limitations to probability analysis and often it does not reduce uncertainty enough. Often, it can only suggest plausibility.

     Criticisms of risk assessment include the observation that it is based on science and subjective judgment, with judgment being what is criticized. It is a similar argument to one that deems that scientific experts can inform policy but should not make policy. Epidemiology studies are often criticized due to vagueness. Conservative default assumptions as the EPA has advocated for in the past in risk assessment have also been criticized. Dose-response models have been criticized when low-dose effects on humans are extrapolated from high-dose effects on rodents.

     He notes that for ethical reasons, environmental epidemiology is often observational rather than experimental. Additionally, epidemiological data may be lacking due to no adverse events having happened to have been studied, poor exposure knowledge, and other factors. I have seen epidemiological studies on possible health effects of fracking that were inconclusive, be given media headlines that suggested otherwise. Thus, there can be a media aspect to risk assessment and risk communication. It is sometimes argued that risk assessment has morphed into risk management. Again, it is not the objective aspect but the subjective aspect of risk assessment that is criticized. He notes that there will likely always be disagreement about risk assessment and it will continue to be debated as it always has been.

 

The Ambipolar Electric Field: Its Existence, Strength, and Mechanisms Confirmed by NASA

 

     The Endurance Rocket Mission launched in the spring of 2022. One aspect of the mission was to confirm the existence, and properties, and to measure the weak “ambipolar” electric field generated by Earth’s ionosphere. The existence of the field was suggested- hypothesized in 1955 and now it has been confirmed and measured. The ambipolar electric field begins about 150 miles above the planet and has been described as a “great invisible force” that lifts up the sky. It also drives the polar winds which in turn drive global weather patterns. 

     A 2022 paper about the mission in Space Science Reviews explains the formation of the Earth’s ambipolar field as follows:

“The ionosphere of any planet consists of ions and electrons in approximately equal numbers. In the absence of electrical forces, electrons, being three to four orders of magnitude lighter than ions, would easily escape the pull of gravity guided along the magnetic field, resulting in a net positive electric charge. However, the Coulomb force restricts electron motion away from the ions. As the electrons pull away, an electric field forms to resist their separation, preventing a net charge from forming and satisfying quasineutrality (see Fig. 2). This field acts equally (but oppositely) on both electrons and ions: restraining and slowing the negatively charged electrons, and pulling and accelerating positively charged ions out of the ionosphere. The associated ambipolar electric potential drop is critical to the formation of Earths “polar wind” which flows outward along open magnetic fields above our polar caps (Banks and Holzer 1968), and helps to transport ions to higher altitudes where other energization mechanisms may be at play (Moore and Khazanov 2010).”

Figure 2 is shown below.

 

     The paper continues its explanation of the ambipolar field:

“While crucial to ion outflow, the ambipolar potential is extremely challenging to measure given its small magnitude. Current theory and simulations predict that it could be as weak as ≈ 0.4 V (calculated from our Polar Wind Outflow model, Glocer et al. 2007, 2009, 2012, 2017) across the exobase transition region (< 780 km). The first successful direct measure[1]ment of an ionospheric ambipolar potential drop was at the planet Venus (Collinson et al. 2016). Surprisingly, Venus’ potential drop was found to be +10 V. Such a strong potential drop is an order of magnitude larger than the 0.9 V predicted by equation (2) (Collinson et al. 2019). This potential drop was found to be stable, persistent, and capable of accelerating oxygen ions directly to escape velocities. This surprising result raises a compelling question: How strong is Earth’s ambipolar potential?”

     The magnitude and the role played by the ambipolar field regarding ion outflow, or the unknown importance of Earth’s ambipolar field in mediating ionospheric escape is what the mission set out to determine. Ionospheric photoelectrons are used to measure electric potential. The figure below shows photoelectron spectra measured for Venus and compares it with expected photoelectron spectra for the Earth to be measured by the Endurance mission (although it is at a different resolution and the graph for Earth is in different units so I am unsure how the end result compared to the prediction)

     Goals of the mission include determining the strength of the electric potential drop across Earth’s exobase transition region, determining the vertical distribution of the electric potential, and de-tangling the competing underlying physical processes that drive the strength and distribution of the electric potential.

What Did They Find?

   According to lead researcher Glyn Collinson of NASA:

“Whenever spacecraft have flown over the poles of the Earth, they have felt this supersonic wind of particles called the polar wind.”

“There must be some invisible force lurking there responsible for this outflow, but we’ve never been able to measure it because we didn’t have the technology.”

“This field is so fundamental to understanding the way the planet works. It’s been here since the beginning alongside gravity and magnetism. It’s been wafting particles to space and stretching up the sky since the beginning”

     The field is difficult to detect because it is so weak, just 0.55 volts, similar to a watch battery. However, this is just the right amount to explain the polar winds. He added:

“Despite being weak it’s incredibly important, it counters gravity and it lifts the skies up. It’s like this conveyor belt, lifting the atmosphere up into space.”

“The team found that hydrogen ions, the most abundant type of particle in the polar wind, experience an outward force from this field, which is 10.6 times stronger than gravity.”

Alex Glocer, the Endurance project scientist at Nasa Goddard and co-author of the paper, said: “That’s more than enough to counter gravity – in fact, it’s enough to launch them upwards into space at supersonic speeds.”

Dr. Collinson added: “What makes Earth the special place that we all call home? One of the reasons may be to do with the energy fields that our planet creates.”

“One of them is gravity. It’s important for life because it’s holding our atmosphere up. The second field is the magnetic field that’s protecting our planet from the stream of particles that comes from the sun.”

“Our rocket has discovered, and finally measured, number three. Now that we’ve finally measured it, we can begin learning how it’s shaped our planet as well as others over time.”

     The mission was launched from Norway, near the North Pole. Results of the mission were published on August 28, 2024, in the journal Nature. The abstract of the paper is given below:

Cold plasma of ionospheric origin has recently been found to be a much larger contributor to the magnetosphere of Earth than expected1,2,3. Numerous competing mechanisms have been postulated to drive ion escape to space, including heating and acceleration by wave–particle interactions4 and a global electrostatic field between the ionosphere and space (called the ambipolar or polarization field)5,6. Observations of heated O+ ions in the magnetosphere are consistent with resonant wave–particle interactions7. By contrast, observations of cold supersonic H+ flowing out of the polar ionosphere8,9 (called the polar wind) suggest the presence of an electrostatic field. Here we report the existence of a +0.55 ± 0.09 V electric potential drop between 250 km and 768 km from a planetary electrostatic field (E∥⊕ = 1.09 ± 0.17 μV m−1) generated exclusively by the outward pressure of ionospheric electrons. We experimentally demonstrate that the ambipolar field of Earth controls the structure of the polar ionosphere, boosting the scale height by 271%. We infer that this increases the supply of cold O+ ions to the magnetosphere by more than 3,800%, in which other mechanisms such as wave–particle interactions can heat and further accelerate them to escape velocity. The electrostatic field of Earth is strong enough by itself to drive the polar wind9,10 and is probably the origin of the cold H+ ion population1 that dominates much of the magnetosphere. 

     

Spectrometer and sensors shown below:

     An article in AS USA sums up the Earth's three fields:

Gravitational field: It is responsible for maintaining our atmosphere and if there were not enough gravity it would go into space.

Magnetic field: The shield that protects planet Earth from the solar wind, the stream of charged particles released by the sun.

Ambipolar field: Counteracts gravity and ejects particles into space. According to scientists, it is as fundamental to the way our planet works as the other two fields.

 

References:

Nasa makes discovery ‘as important as gravity’ about Earth. Sarah Knapton. The Telegraph. August 29, 2024. Nasa makes discovery ‘as important as gravity’ about Earth (msn.com)

The Endurance Rocket Mission. Glyn Collinson, et al. NASA. Space Science Reviews · August 2022. Collinsonetal2022b-TheEnduranceRocketMission.pdf

NASA Unveils An Electric Field Around Earth That’s Just As Vital As Gravity. Damjan. Technology. August 31, 2024. NASA Unveils An Electric Field Around Earth That’s Just As Vital As Gravity (dailysquared.com)

Earth’s ambipolar electrostatic field and its role in ion escape to space. Glyn A. Collinson et al. Nature volume 632, pages1021–1025. August 28, 2024. Earth’s ambipolar electrostatic field and its role in ion escape to space | Nature

Ambipolar electric field. Wikipedia. Ambipolar electric field - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Earth and the incredible discovery of the third energy field that surrounds it and changes how we understand it. Alberto Zaragoza Lerma and Greg Heilman. AS USA. September 8, 2024. The Earth and the incredible discovery of the third energy field that surrounds it and changes how we understand it (msn.com)