U.S. Heatwaves: What Does the Data Say? The EPA’s Data Says Heatwaves Are Climate Change Indicators but Only Gives Data for Major Cities (But that may be OK if rural temperature changes during heatwaves are bigger as some researchers suggest)

 

     I saw a post recently from a right-wing outlet arguing that according to a (sympathetic) meteorologist associated with the conservative Heartland Institute that 96% of temperature measurement stations in the U.S. were in places deemed unacceptable by NOAA standards. The post claimed that thermometers were predominantly on buildings, in cities near pavement, and in other places with human influence, which makes them read higher due mainly to urban heat island effects. Other posts I have been seeing claim that recent high temperatures in Europe in particular were ground temperatures rather than air temperatures. At first glance, this seems quite unlikely to me. Apparently, a few previous studies concluded that this is not the case regarding thermometer placement. Urban heat island effects are considered to have been minimized according to those studies. The serious charge of faked science, if true, would be shocking and entirely unacceptable. However, I seriously doubt this is the case. The post also went on about the climate agenda of the ‘global elite’, specifically mentioning the World Economic Forum and the UN as part of that global elite. Such a charge alleges a vast conspiracy to manipulate data that would be unacceptable by a vast majority of the world’s climate scientists.

     An opinion piece in Fox News claims that it is not climate change that is causing the heatwaves, but that evidence indicates that heatwaves in the 1930’s were worse. Data from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program shows data from 1961 to current which shows without a doubt that heatwaves have increased steadily in frequency and length of heatwave season since 1961. Heatwave duration and intensity have also increased through this time period, but both have showed slight decreases in the 2020’s compared to the 2010’s. The data comes from temperature averages across 50 metropolitan areas and EPA notes: “Heat waves are occurring more often than they used to in major cities across the United States.” I would not dispute that at all but if we are trying to determine the effects of climate change on heatwaves. However, I would question why the data given are concentrated in metropolitan areas and major cities. The data for cities is important to know to mitigate the very real dangers of heatwaves, but did the data filter out urban heat island effects? Is it corroborated by heatwave data from rural areas? There is no information given there about that and that is concerning to me. I had expected to put these assertions by Fox News and Heartland Institute to rest pretty quickly but now I am not so sure. I hate to say this, but the data seem misleading as an indicator of climate change influence, and yet the title of the section at the EPA is indeed Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves. Below the title are the words: “This indicator describes trends in multi-day extreme heat events across the United States.” Then it states: “These data were analyzed from 1961 to 2021 for 50 large metropolitan areas. The graphs show averages across all 50 metropolitan areas by decade.” First in a list of key points is this statement: “Heat waves are occurring more often than they used to in major cities across the United States.”

 

 Source: U.S. EPA

     EPA does acknowledge the rather extreme data in the 1930’s reflected in the U.S. Annual Heat Wave Index, 1895–2021 shown below:

 

 Source: U.S. EPA

EPA explains the significant 1930’s anomaly here:

 

“Longer-term records show that heat waves in the 1930s remain the most severe in recorded U.S. history (see Figure 3). The spike in Figure 3 reflects extreme, persistent heat waves in the Great Plains region during a period known as the “Dust Bowl.” Poor land use practices and many years of intense drought contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation.”

 

Urban Heat Island Effects

     The urban heat island effect (UHI) is measured simply as the differences in air temperatures between urban and nearby rural areas. In contrast land surface temperatures (LST), often captured by satellite sensors, measure the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI). “The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a sensor aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites that provides daily global LST observations.” A study by Krehbiel and Henebry published in 2016 noted: “In Minneapolis-St. Paul, the median urban MODIS-Aqua daytime LST was 297.8 K (24.6 °C, 76.4 °F) compared to the median rural LST, which was 294.7 K (21.6 °C, 70.8 °F).” That is a pretty significant urban-rural temperature difference of 3 deg C and 5.6 deg F. Similar urban-rural differences were observed in several other cities. That map below shows the significant urban-rural temperature differences in the wider region. One can only ask the question: Why is EPA relying on urban temperature data in determining heatwave changes over time? This is concerning to me. As stated, I had expected to quickly refute the assertions of the right-leaning outlets but now I am not so sure, and I am actually concerned and dismayed that there may be some significant scientific bias going on here. It is quite likely that urban heat island effects have been increasing significantly since 1961 and that they account for some of the changes in the EPA data for cities. I would like to know about heatwave data from rural weather stations only as that would be one simple way to filter out UHI effects.

     A 2023 study of the heatwave in U.S. west in 2021 did offer some interesting information about the different effects of heatwaves on urban and rural areas. It suggested that heatwaves actually make temperatures rise more in rural areas:  

 

“… heatwaves have stronger temperature effects in rural areas due to the synoptic scale of the high-pressure systems that lead to low wind speeds, decreased humidity and elevated temperatures across a large area (e.g., thousands of km). The uniform temperature increases across both rural and urban areas during heatwaves confirm the importance of mitigating urban heat and not the UHI as suggested by Martilli et al.19. To isolate the specific contributions, e.g., urban vegetation and lake/sea breezes, on urban temperatures, future modeling investigations can be designed to focus on model perturbations of these processes so the results can provide a quantitative estimate of their specific impacts on urban heat.”

 

This suggests that my concerns about possible scientific bias may not be well founded so I will leave it at that for now.

Image of annual mean accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD) for 2003-2012. AGDD is calculated from the MODIS-Aqua and MODIS-Terra 1,000 meter 8-day composites of daytime and nighttime land surface temperature (LST). Five of the eleven study sites from Krehbiel and Henebry (2016) are labeled in this image. Areas with higher mean annual AGDD are shaded red, including major cities such as Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN, and Chicago, IL.

 Source: Detecting Urban-Rural Temperature Differences with MODIS and AppEEARS. U.S. Geological Survey. Jume 22, 2016. LP DAAC - Detecting Urban-Rural Temperature Differences with MODIS and AppEEARS (usgs.gov)

 

Is Weather Station Placement Corrupting Data?

 

     I now return to the assertions of meteorologist Anthony Watts and the Heartland Institute’s study about placement of U.S. weather stations not meeting NOAA standards. Watts released a similar study in 2009 - Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?  - that concluded that about 90% of U.S. weather stations did not meet the National Weather Service’s requirements for placement. Watts traveled around the country to observe weather station placement and noted:

 

“We found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.”

 

I should note that Watts is a well-known climate skeptic and founder of Watts Up With That, which is touted as “the world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change.” The new 62-page report is based on further visits to weather stations and has about 17 pages of photos of weather stations that could be influenced by placement effects. The NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center did respond to the 2009 report first with a set of ‘talking points’ now no longer available and concluded that the data from the stations were not biased. Specifically, according to Watts, they noted:

“The issues related to poor station siting are described and an analysis of the potential bias that poor station siting caused in the U.S. temperature time series is presented. In the U.S. Historical Climatology Network, a data set used for climate change analysis because station time series have been adjusted to remove the effects of changes in the observing system such as changes in the instrumentation or location of the instrument shelter, the analysis found no indication of a bias caused by poor station siting.”  

 

Watts notes in the report that: “The majority of USHCN stations that were closed since the 2009 report were stations that received wide publicity for their unacceptable siting. Other equally poor stations that did not receive a similar amount of publicity remain open.” In addition as Watts notes some peer reviewed papers did acknowledge significant ‘heat sink’ effects on weather stations, specifically effects from proximity to asphalt, brick, concrete, and buildings.

 

While I acknowledge that Watts’ research should be taken into account and that more weather stations should be relocated, I doubt that nationwide temperature data is somehow compromised. As a scientist, though, I do believe that all legitimate concerns about inaccurate data should be investigated and mitigated and that individual stations in question should be relocated.

 

 

 

References:

It’s not climate change that’s causing heat waves this summer but no one wants to explain why. Justin Haskins. Fox News (Opinion). July 27, 2023. It’s not climate change that’s causing heat waves this summer but no one wants to explain why (msn.com)

Detecting Urban-Rural Temperature Differences with MODIS and AppEEARS. U.S. Geological Survey. Jume 22, 2016. LP DAAC - Detecting Urban-Rural Temperature Differences with MODIS and AppEEARS (usgs.gov)

Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves. U.S. EPA. Accessed 7/2023. Climate Change Indicators: Heat Waves | US EPA

A multiscale analysis of heatwaves and urban heat islands in the western U.S. during the summer of 2021. Kaiyu Chen, Jacob Boomsma & Heather A. Holmes. Nature. Scientific Reports. 13, Article number: 9570 (2023). June 13, 2023. A multiscale analysis of heatwaves and urban heat islands in the western U.S. during the summer of 2021 | Scientific Reports (nature.com)

96% of U.S Climate Data Is Corrupted, Study Shows. Frank Bergman. Slay News. July 23, 2023. 96% of U.S Climate Data Is Corrupted, Study Shows - Slay News

Corrupted Climate Stations. The Official U.S. Temperature Record Remains Fatally Flawed. 2022 Edition. Anthony Watts. The Heartland Institute. 2022_Surface_Station_Report.pdf (heartland.org)

Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable? Anthony Watts. Heartland Institute. March 1, 2009. Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable? – The Heartland Institute

Nanotechnology Set to Improve Next-Generation Direct-Drive Generator Wind Turbines

 

     Nanotechnology-enabled wind turbines offer a chance for improved wind generation efficiency and subsequent drops in cost and emissions. Wind energy companies Siemens Gamesa and Orsted have been collaborating with academic researchers at UK universities Sheffield, Durham, and Hull for R&D. The goal is to make wind turbines more reliable, more efficient, lighter, and cheaper. There is also potential to extend turbine life and reduce maintenance needs. Nanotechnology includes the development of nanomaterials, manufacturing techniques, and new designs.

Improved Direct-Drive Generators (Gearless Turbines)

     Of particular note is a new design for the direct-drive generator, first introduced in 1991, which eliminates the need for a gear box. Gear boxes are often the most vulnerable part of a wind turbine, requiring expensive maintenance and repairs. As a result, a direct-drive generator eliminates 50% of the components of a wind turbine. Further improvements in materials and manufacturing can make turbines more efficient and lighter. In addition to those improvements there are also new methods to better predict and monitor the health of turbine components. These improved monitoring techniques involve data analytics and physics.

     Also known as gearless turbines, direct-drive turbines eliminate the gear box and its components. Direct-drive turbines have been around for a decade or more and are especially used in offshore wind deployments.  However, there are some disadvantages. One is that they require magnets made from rare earth elements derived mainly from China which has a monopoly on mining, and processing of REEs as well as on manufacture of the neodymium magnets. According to Net Zero Drive:

 

“In a conventional, gear-driven turbine, the rotor blades spin a shaft which drives gears that drive a generator. In a direct drive design, the drive shaft spins the generator directly, causing it to spin at the same speed as the turbine blades.”

     “With a conventional generator, the gearbox dramatically increases the speed at which the generator spins so as to generate high amounts of power. With a direct drive turbine, a larger generator is used to generate the same power from a slower rotation speed.”

 

     Direct-drive systems use permanent magnet generators (PMGs) while gear box driven turbines use electrically excited synchronous generators (EESGs). PMGs are often used for small power turbines. For larger power turbines greater than 7MW output there is a need for an additional gear box which makes power losses higher and efficiency lower. Thus, direct-drive is the choice for these turbines. The direct-drive generator must be larger and heavier in these higher output turbines due to higher torque requirements. PM generators work better with partial loads which is common since wind is a variable resource.

     One advantage of direct-drive over convention gear box turbines is that kinetic energy that is lost in the gear box is retained in the direct-drive design, leading to greater efficiency. Another advantage is that the direct-drive design uses permanent magnets rather than electromagnets and this along with the elimination of the heavy gear box reduces weight. This is especially important in offshore wind farms where the turbines are supported on a floating buoy. Direct-drive is simpler to maintain, reducing costs. This simplicity in maintenance requirements is especially important for offshore wind since these turbines are more difficult to access. The EU has been developing a direct-drive system that utilizes super conductor technology. The newest high output (over 10MW but up to 15MW with boost) turbines developed by Siemens Gamesa and GE are using direct-drive and the industry as a whole is moving to direct-drive. The DOE has been involved in improved direct-drive design as well.

According to the article in Engineering.com:

1. “The costs for the offshore support structure for direct-drive wind turbines is lower due to its lighter weight.”

 

2. “Direct-drive has more potential for further improvement. Experts argue the gearbox wind turbine is almost at its maximum efficiency point, while the direct-drive turbines have more possibilities for improvement.”

 

3. “Direct drive is more efficient for future higher power rating wind because the gearbox wind turbines require extra stages of gears, leading to more gearbox losses.”

 

Nano Treatments and Nano Sensors

     Newly developed nano-coatings can improve aerodynamics, reduce drag, and increase energy capture according to Nano Magazine. Nano sensors enable real-time monitoring. They note that further advancements in nanomaterials, nanocoatings, and nanosensors are expected. According to Chapter 43 of the 2017 book Nanotechnology for Energy Sustainability entitled Techno-Commercial Opportunities of Nanotechnology in Wind Energy:

 “The wind turbine blades cycle lifetime can be increased by using nanocoatings and nanopaints; weight can be reduced by using nano-based prepregs; efficiency can be increased by the use of nanolubricants, nanofluids, nano-enabled wires and cables; and nanosensors can be used for nondestructive testing of composites. The commercial success of nano-enabled products for structural and functional applications parts in the wind energy sector has been slow and currently being used mainly as the structural nanocomposites in rotor blades.”

     According to a December 2020 paper in the International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies: An overview on the use of nanotechnology in the renewable energy field, lightweight nanomaterials can increase wind turbine efficiency. Carbon nanotubes used in wind turbine construction are both lighter and more durable. The lifetime of the turbines can be increased with these nanomaterials. Indeed, nanotechnology is used in many forms of energy, particularly renewable energy: hydrogen, fuel cells, tidal energy, geothermal drilling applications, solar applications, and much more. Future improvements and new applications are likely.

 Nanolubricants contain nanoparticles that act like mini ball bearings to reduce turbine rotation friction, which extends the maintenance intervals and the life of the turbines. Nanocoatings include de-icing and self-cleaning technologies. These have been used for well over a decade.

References:

Unleashing the Potential of Next-Generation Wind Turbines for a Sustainable Future through Nanotechnology. Nano Magazine. June 20, 2023. Unleashing the Potential of Next-Generation Wind Turbines for a Sustainable Future through Nanotechnology — Nano Magazine - Latest Nanotechnology News (nano-magazine.com)

Universities develop ways for wind turbines to generate more energy, Sean Barton. University of Sheffield. March 22, 2023. Universities develop ways for wind turbines to generate more energy | News | The University of Sheffield

Techno-Commercial Opportunities of Nanotechnology in Wind Energy. Abstract. Chapter 43 of Nanotechnology for Energy Sustainability. Edited by Prof. Baldev Raj, Prof. Marcel Van de Voorde, Yashwant Mahajan Dr., February 1, 2017. Wiley‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.  Techno‐Commercial Opportunities of Nanotechnology in Wind Energy - Nanotechnology for Energy Sustainability - Wiley Online Library

An overview on the use of nanotechnology in the renewable energy field. Kazım Kumaş and Ali Akyüz. International Journal of Energy Applications and Technologies 7(4) [2020] 143-148. Anoverviewontheuseofnanotechnologyintherenewableenergyfield764240-1187965.pdf

Development effort focuses on two types of wind turbines, is there a dominant choice? Edis Osmanbasic. Engineering.com. April 7, 2020. The Future of Wind Turbines: Comparing Direct Drive and Gearbox | Engineering.com

The Power of Nanotechnology. Pradeep Haldar. Power Engineering. July 1, 2007. The Power of Nanotechnology (power-eng.com)

The Berea Sandstone, or Berea Grit: A Building Stone and Grindstone from Northern Ohio

     One mid-morning after a 12-hour night shift I was woken up by a phone call. The man on the line was looking for a geologist, someone who knows about building stones in Northeast Ohio. I asked him if it was the Berea Sandstone. He said he thought that is what it was. He owned what he called a mine, but really meant a quarry of the stone and was in some kind of dispute about its boundaries and depth. He needed to know its thickness. Not being an expert in this area I referred him to the Ohio Geological Survey in Columbus, knowing that they had some old reports about the Berea Grit, as the sandstone is called in its building and grindstone manifestation.

     Since some of my blog posts are related to personal experience, I thought I would research and write a bit about the Berea Grit and its history and qualities as a building stone. The sand is indeed thick in Northeast Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. It outcrops in Northeast Ohio, near Cleveland, where it has been extensively quarried and milled.

     As an oil and gas geologist from Ohio I am well aware of the Berea Sandstone, having mapped it in Southern Ohio and studied oil and gas production from it. It was once thought to be of the Early Mississippian period but now is assigned to Late Devonian. The sand made several river channels through West Virginia and deltas in Western West Virginia and Ohio. Many of these produce natural gas and oil. I even mapped one section I interpreted as an ebb tide delta with a single well of prolific gas production (by Berea standards). A little further in Ohio there is an older sandstone just below it, known as the Second Berea, that makes up offshore marine bars. An equivalent sandstone in Western Pennsylvania is known as the Murrysville Sandstone. The Berea Sandstone is also present as a lower permeability rock in Kentucky where it produces oil and there is an equivalent but likely slightly younger sandstone in Michigan. The sediment source of the sand was the highlands of Eastern Canada.  

     The qualities of the sand lend themselves well to being a building and grinding stone. Berea Grit has a high silica content, composed mainly of quartz grains with silica cement. An old book/magazine from 1896 notes that quarrying of Berea Sandstone began in 1830. First, until around 1840 or 1845, only grindstones were produced. Then flagstones and building stones were produced. By 1893 the dozen or so companies producing the stone consolidated into the Cleveland Stone Company, which was the largest sandstone producer in the United States at the time. As a building stone the Berea faces several large courthouses and buildings in the U.S. and Canada. It is also used as a patio stone. The Berea Sandstone Patio company recognizes two grades of the Berea: The Amherst Gray and the Birmingham Buff. 

     The sandstone is named after the town of Berea, along the Rocky River, twelve miles southwest of Cleveland and six miles from Lake Erie. There is an annual Berea Grindstone festival in the town.

 

“The requirements for a good, natural grinding stone are that it be sharp sand, clean—free from clay or other impurities—and strongly cemented together. However, when this ideal condition is reached, any further cement is objection-able, since it reduces the grit. The coarser the stone the faster the cutting. The Berea grit is composed of about 4 percent super hard aluminum oxide (corundum) bonded with about 93 percent silicon dioxide (quartz), the remainder being iron, magnesium, and calcium oxide. Near perfect in grain, the sandstone was ideal, cutting evenly and efficiently.”

 

Source: Berea Sandstone Patio (website)

     The Berea is also quarried in South Central Ohio as the Waverly Stone but there it is of lower quality, having a higher clay content. The high-quality Berea Grit in northern Ohio was easy to cut and milling the stone into shapes resulted in very little waste. It was used extensively as a grindstone and as a whetstone. In 1915, about 85% of the grindstones in the U.S. were made from Berea Grit.

     Unfortunately, there were some tragedies regarding the stone’s production. Towns with quarries were jagged and uneven with rock strewn about. The workers, particularly in the mills where the stone was turned to make grinding wheels, developed silicosis as the fine silica dust entered and accumulated in their lungs. Many workers died from it. Incidentally, the more recent increase in black lung disease from coal mines (after falling somewhat when better safety measures came) is really attributable to silicosis as mining machines tear through adjacent sandstones to get to other coal seams. The average time a worker spent in Berea Grit quarries and mills was just 5 years.

     Precision grinding machines made of alloy steel began to replace grinding stones at the turn of the century. The steel machines used new synthetic materials for grinding: vitrified emery, carborundum (silicon carbide), and alundum (artificial corundum) became the abrasives of choice for grinding wheels. These materials replaced sandstone. Cheaper concrete and cement replaced the sandstone for use in sidewalks, curbs, and foundations.

 Use of the Berea for Core Testing for the Oil and Gas Industry 

     The Berea Sandstone is also used in the petroleum industry as a standard for testing cores. “For the past 30 years, Berea Sandstone core samples have been widely recognized by the petroleum industry as the best stone for testing the efficiency of chemical surfactants.” A company called Cleveland Quarries supplies Berea for this purpose as well as for Berea Patio company and other uses. The high permeability of the sand lends it well for use as a testing standard. Cleveland Quarries’ Berea Sandstone Cores markets the rock for this use and describes three grades based on permeability and other features:

 

“Split Rock has visible laminations but can be classified as homogeneous. These samples typically yield mD ratings between 100-300.

 

Liver Rock has little top no visible laminations and is homogenous. These samples typically have mD ratings above 500 and can be found with mD ratings up to 900 when measured with air.

 

Dundee samples are from the Massilon Formation. While having consistent porosities and densities to our Berea Sandstone™, our Ohio Sandstone samples are not considered homogeneous. Its laminations do not run parallel to each other and is very porous, therefore yielding the higher ratings of 900mD-2500mD.”

References:

 

Wikipedia: Berea Sandstone. Berea Sandstone - Wikipedia

Rowley, Ira P. (1893). "Sandstone Interests of Northern Ohio - IV". Stone; an Illustrated Magazine. D. H. Ranck Publishing Company. pp. 200–203. Stone; an Illustrated Magazine - Google Books

Ohio’s Sandstone: Once the source of the World’s Finest Grinding Stones. Dana Martin Batory. Early American Industries Association. Excerpted from The Chronicle Vol. 60 No. 1, March 2007. Ohio’s Sandstone: Once the Source of the World’s Finest Grinding Stones – EAIA (eaiainfo.org)

Berea Sandstone Patio. Website. Berea Sandstone - Patio stone, sandstone, Cleveland, Ohio (sandstonepatio.com)

Berea Sandstone Cores. Website. Berea Sandstone Cores | Cleveland Quarries

 

 

 

 

 

Promising New Methods to Improve and Enhance Oil Recovery: More Oil with Less Drilling?

     In June 2023 ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods reported at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference that Exxon was planning to improve fracking efficiency by getting more oil out than currently. He stated that with current methods as little as 10% of oil was being liberated in some fields and that improvements in both drilling and hydraulic fracturing could liberate more oil. There is less of a problem in natural gas wells since the methane molecule is much smaller than the “heavy” hydrocarbons that make up oil. He noted that Exxon was working in two specific areas to increase oil recovery efficiency: 1) more precision with fracking along the wellbore and 2) keeping the cracks or induced fractures forced open by water pressure open longer. Sand is pumped down to keep the fractures open. He did not elaborate about any specific techniques. He simply notes that those are the two areas where new promising technologies are happening. Increasing fracking precision along the wellbore suggests things like perforation cluster spacing or targeted perforations. Keeping fractures open longer suggests different frac sand sizes and types or better sand emplacement in the induced fractures.

     Oil and gas production increases in recent years involved adjustments to hydraulic fracturing such as closer spaced frac stages, more proppant per stage, and higher pumping rates. In addition to that better wellbore targeting and target zone maintenance have helped improve production.

     Aside from hydraulic fracturing there are a few other ways to initially enhance oil and gas production, A common method is acidizing wells, particularly wells producing from carbonates, or limestones and dolostones. There are some new methods and formulas in acidizing. The acids eat away carbonates which enhances porosity and permeability in carbonate reservoirs.

     It is known that current oil production methods can leave much of the oil in the ground, up to 90%. That certainly suggests there is room for improvements to unlock remaining oil. Natural gas production can also be improved in some reservoirs. New methods of improved oil recovery (IOR) and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) are looking promising for increasing oil production. IOR and EOR seem pretty synonymous, but EOR usually refers to enhancing oil production with water flooding or CO2 flooding. Water and CO2 are pumped into the formation to gather and push more oil out.

 

Single Shot IOR Tech: Water Alternating Gas Injection with NGL’s (Propane and Butane)

     Universal Chemical Solutions (UCS), at the behest of Oil Technology Group, began researching and testing EOR with ‘water alternating gas injection’ using propane and butane in 2019. Single shot IOR is an offshoot of this so-called gas frac technique where NGLs are injected to help move oil out of the reservoir. Two UCS engineers and another engineer from C3 Oilfield Services, who previously worked for Gas Frac Energy Services, combined for R&D for a year of work and came up with and patented Single Shot IOR technology. The purpose of the technology is to re-establish the wells’ original stimulated rock (or reservoir) volume (SRV). Some reservoirs are sensitive to water and single shot tech offers an alternative to water-based treatments. Injected NGLs are able to penetrate the formation.

     It is believed that longer laterals result in more frac water trapped in the formation which can impede oil production. “The Single Shot IOR treatment employs a surfactant that has an affinity for water and will transfer from the NGL to water, making the water less viscous and letting it flow much more easily.” The chemicals used, surfactants and inhibitors, are designed to work in propane and butane. The method also employs diversion techniques to move the NGLs out into the formation from the well’s heel though the article doesn’t really explain how. This is the first NGL treatment that employs surfactants and diversion. The goal is “to eliminate emulsification of the NGLs or the oil/water it contacts downhole.” Thus far the tech has not yet been used on horizontal wells due to the higher horsepower requirements for pumping/injecting but has been used successfully on 4 vertical wells in Texas and Oklahoma. The treatment has been successful in addressing condensate blockage and water block in water-sensitive formations.

 

Nitrogen Nanobubbles, aka “Fluffy Water” for EOR

    Another promising technology is the use of nitrogen nanobubbles, also known as “fluffy water,” for improving oil production. This is like the bubbles in Guinness beer or in nitrogenated Coca Cola. Scientists from Nano Gas Environmental developed a nanotechnology that could increase the amount of gas a liquid could hold. “While the amount of the gas increase has not been fully measured, Bland and his team think it is 3,500 times the amount of gas that would be in water naturally. Nanobubbles are invisible under a light-based microscope but become visible and measurable with a device called a NanoSight.” That is a huge difference in gas capacity! “That extreme concentration alters the liquid’s physical, biological and chemical characteristics. The company has used all three for EOR, cleaning produced water and eliminating dredging for sewage lagoons.”

     Surface tensions are reduced as the nanobubbles attach to the rocks making them “water wet” which helps move the oil. The bubbles are as hard as steel when under high pressure and that hardness along with their small size makes them function somewhat like fracking and frac sand in pushing oil out of fractures. The company first used the technique to clean produced water, extracting more oil from it. It has also been used to reduce hydrogen sulfide (H2S), iron sulfide, and total suspended solids (TSS), which renders the produced water reusable. Nanobubbles can also recover oil and remove solids from tank bottom water, which can temporarily increase API gravity of the oil, allowing it to flow and more oil to be sold. The patented process is called Nitro Nano.

     Nitro Nano tests in the lab with oil-infused cores, comparing it to tests with EOR-ready saltwater, have yielded very good results. “The company has now tested the process on four stripper wells. The company said each well saw production increase to 200% of the normal rate. A Kansas well in a limestone formation achieved a 540% production improvement after 90 days, and was still at 200% after 150 days. The other three are in sandstone formations in Oklahoma.” Those phenomenal results are from single treatments injected close to wellbore. It is thought that further injections at time intervals can keep improving production and that the treatments can be pushed further from the wellbore. As far as materials, it’s just water and nitrogen. Plans are to scale up the technology and use the nitro-nanobubbles waterfloods for EOR. If the results continue to show such improvements this could be a major new EOR technology.

New and Improved Acidizing of Carbonate Reservoirs

     Hydrochloric acid has been the old standard for acidizing wells. “Acid jobs” are used to improve production in carbonate reservoirs. Commonly, a 15% HCL solution was used. Sometimes a higher concentration of 28% is used.

     Baker Hughes and World Oil presented a webcast in June 2023: The Evolution of Carbonate Acidizing to Unlock Full Reservoir Production Potential. Injecting acids into wells to increase production began back in 1896. Nearly 70% of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves are in carbonate formations. The two goals of an acid job are to remove or bypass damage (often scale) and to access or contact more formation by dissolving carbonates with acid. These days horizontal wells are deeper, hotter, and longer. Such wells require more pumping horsepower for stimulation and larger volumes. Hotter wells are more susceptible to corrosion, but acid has more dissolving power in those hotter reservoirs. Retarded or delayed acid systems extend reservoir contact and penetrate at high rates at the same viscosity rather than changing viscosity as in past methods. Polymers and emulsions in the past were used for chemically retarding, but really, they block rather than chemically retarding.

     Baker Hughes developed their Sta-Live Extreme (SLE) retarded acid system to penetrate further into formations. Emulsified acid systems have higher viscosity and higher friction pressures. The additives (polymers) can lead to formation damage (form filter cakes). Blending on location takes time. SLE is mixed on the fly and simpler. Core tests show SLE penetrates further, making a more dominant wormhole. Much lower friction, better wormholing, and further penetration lead to better acid distribution.

 

Source: Baker Hughes. World Oil Webcast slides

Source: Baker Hughes. World Oil Webcast slides

     Baker Hughes’ Stim Vision models acidizing and has found a good match with models and reality. The software can be used to manipulate designs on-the-go. It can be pumped at higher rates without exceeding frac gradient. SLE improves penetration at higher temps but other retarded systems decrease a little at higher temps. SLE also works better in dolomites than other retarded acid systems.

     In the webcast Baker Hughes presented two case studies: Case study 1 – Middle East – no increase with emulsified acid, 1000 Bbls/day increase with SLE. Case study 2 – Brazil -no increase with emulsified acid – 3000 Bbl/day increase with SLE. These results suggest that SLE will be a game-changer. It won best new technology at Baker Hughes for 2023.

     The Stim Vision software can model for different reservoirs and helps predictability. SLE can be modified to work in sandstones. It can work in old wells and in wells with high water cut, increasing oil cut and maintaining or decreasing water cut. It can be applied in acid fracturing since the viscosity does not change. SLE aims to give low corrosivity without sacrificing the dissolving power of HCl. It can inhibit corrosion with magnitudes less of corrosion inhibitors. It is best mixed on the fly, which is advantageous if there is a delay, which can cause need to remix or reformulate a batch mix. Hydrofluoric acids, or mud acids are used to acidize sandstones but that can lead to the acid attacking cementation materials in the rock which can liberate fine particles that can plug permeability. Baker Hughes is working on a solution that can leave sandstone cements intact. Risk/reward profiles lead to candidate selection. H2S affects corrosion inhibitors so there is a need for more of them when this “sour gas” is present. SLE is good for fractured carbonates. With matrix porosity near-field diversion is needed. Far-field diversion is needed for fractured reservoirs.      

 

EOG’s New Stealth Frac Design: What’s the Recipe?

     EOG recently announced success with a new frac design that increased production in the Permian Wolfcamp formation by 20% and well EURs by 22%. Analysts tried to get them to divulge the recipe with no luck. They had been testing the technique since first using a version of it in the Eagle Ford in 2016. The design was tested in 39 Wolfcamp wells and EOG expects to use it in about 70 of 350 Delaware Basin wells this year. They noted that it works better in some rocks than in others, although they are now using it in the Eagle Ford as well. Indications are that it is only slightly more expensive. They are testing the design cautiously in deep formations and plan to test it in all their emerging plays. It is most applicable to deeper targets, but they plan to test some shallower targets as well. EOG president Billy Helms noted that depending on the mechanics of the rock it’s being applied to, “it involves constructing the wellbore in a way that lends itself to this new technique.” It has also been said that it is applicable to both oil and gas plays.

 

Stimulation with Ammonia (NH3) and the Ammonia Frac

      I came across a LinkedIn post on my feed about EOG’s stealth new frac design and in the comments, someone posted a link to posts by a stimulation company from Oklahoma City called Green Horse Energy that does stimulation with NH3. Of course, that made me wonder if EOG was using ammonia as part of their new frac design. I did a search on “ammonia fracking,” making the mistake of adding the K and coming up with anti-fracking activist stuff. Then I searched “ammonia frac” and the first thing that came up was a patent by Gary Lee Travis and assigned to EOG Resources. The patent was filed in December 2014. That jives with their first use of their new frac design in 2016. It does say that the status is “abandoned” but is still quite suggestive. I don’t know for sure, but I strongly suspect that liquid ammonia is a part of EOG’s new frac recipe. Green Horse Energy touts NH3 stimulation for significantly increasing production in older wells. They posted results of two Austin Chalk wells: one with a 150% increase in production, and one with a whopping 1400% increase in production from 1Bbl per day to 14Bbls per day that later leveled out at 8.8 Bbls per day. The Austin Chalk contains several volcanic ash beds, and that ash has a tendency to plug fractures in the wells. Chemical treatments, perhaps including NH3, are used to re-open the fractures. Thus, perhaps the Austin Chalk is not the best reservoir for determining the magnitude of potential of NH3 stimulation.

     One thing liquid ammonia can do down hole is to remove and prevent scale and corrosion. Scale is usually a buildup of calcium carbonate and iron sulfides. Hot reservoirs have higher rates of corrosion. This is well known in hot oil and gas reservoirs and in geothermal wells. Some geothermal wells can have especially corrosive fluids. Below is the abstract from the patent assigned to EOG:

 

“Abstract

 

“A fracturing fluid that includes the combination of liquid ammonia and a proppant, and a method for fracturing an underground formation by pumping this fracturing fluid into a wellbore that extends to the formation. The process includes generating pressure in the wellbore, creating fractures in the formation using the liquid or gelled ammonia and proppant slurry, and releasing pressure from the wellbore. The ammonia released from the liquid or gelled ammonia helps stabilize clays in the formation and the proppant helps to maintain the fractures in the formation.”

 

Thus, as it states, ammonia acts as a clay stabilizer. Frac fluids consisting of mostly water may cause the clays of formations with high clay content to swell and eventually plug the pore throats of the reservoir rock, resulting in unrealized production. This effect is known in low permeability sandstones and shales with high clay content, both of which make up many oil and gas reservoirs.

     Liquid ammonia may be gelled or cross-linked. According to the patent info ammonia may be present from 25% to 96% by weight of the frac fluid. Other frac fluids like LPG (propane and butane) and CO2 may have a similar effect but cost more than liquid ammonia. In addition, CO2 caused scale when mixed with water so is less desirable.

     Green Horse Energy emphasizes dissolution of mineral scale deposits as the superpower of NH3:

 

“Unparalleled Scale Dissolution: NH3 possesses excellent scale-dissolving properties. When introduced into the system, it reacts with mineral scales, such as calcium carbonate or iron sulfide, breaking them down and preventing their accumulation…

 

Enhanced Well Integrity: Scale deposits can compromise the integrity of your wells, leading to reduced efficiency and costly maintenance. By implementing NH3 scale breakdown treatments, you can protect your wellbore and production equipment from damage caused by scale-related corrosion…

 

Improved Flow Assurance: Scale deposits can cause significant flow assurance issues, resulting in reduced hydrocarbon recovery and increased operational costs. NH3 effectively mitigates these concerns by preventing scale formation and maintaining the integrity of your flow paths…

 

Environmentally Friendly: NH3 offers an environmentally friendly solution to scale management. As a naturally occurring compound, it presents a sustainable alternative to traditional scale removal methods that may involve harsh chemicals…”

    

Addendum July 27, 2023.

 

     A new article in Hart Energy by Paul Wiseman - Squeezing Oil from Stone: The Quest to Improve Shale Recovery – highlights more promising methods of increasing hydrocarbon production, and some of these new techniques may have influenced Exxon’s suggestions of recovery improvements on the horizon. The article focused on four techniques. The first technique covered is the Tapered Frac Design. This method is based on work by the University of Texas at Austin’s Mukul Sharma. Sharma’s previous research shown that in addition to propped induced fractures wells also produced from smaller unpropped induced fractures. Data used to determine the presence of these unpropped induced fractures include micro-seismic data, production history matching, tracer data, pressure communication between wells and calculations on the fate of the injected fracturing fluids. Sharma noted: “The well completion, the number and clusters and the number of perforations in each cluster, as well as the pumping schedule, are things that we can control and have a major impact on the geometry of the fracture network. Of course, the natural fracture network and the heterogeneity in the reservoir have a big influence as well.” The article notes: “They observed that a geometric cluster design, in which all clusters contain the same number of perforations, often creates heel-dominated fractures. This can result in a loss of production from the other fractures. Adding more perforations to the toe, referred to as tapered completions, can provide more uniform proppant and fluid distribution.” UT developed a software package, Multifrac-3D, which models frac and flowback. According to the models, production could improve by 30-40%.

     The next technique mentioned in the article is Frac Count and Spacing Optimization. This is based on research by the DOE, Continental Resources, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Oklahoma Geological Survey, and the University of Pittsburgh. The four-year $20 million study is nearing conclusion. The research involved testing cores and modeling. Each frac zone was analyzed for rock hardness, ductility and other geomechanical properties. Maximum exposure to the producing zone, more fracs, closer frac spacing, longer laterals, and more frac propagation in the hardest and most brittle rock were found to be the most important factors for increasing production. This is really not surprising. They also found that alternating wells producing from sections higher and lower in the rock reduced parent-child frac hits. This would be expected as well. 18 months of new production data has confirmed the modeling and this should be applicable to refracs as well. Again, this study is more of a confirmation of expected results.

     The third technique is Keeping Casing Liners in Place in Refracs. “One refrac method involves inserting an expandable casing liner into the existing casing. After sliding the liner into place the installer expands the liner to fit by pulling a tool along its length. The liner’s purpose is to keep the new frac from taking the path of least resistance through existing fissures without creating new ones. From there, the producer is starting anew because, at that point, it is essentially a brand new well that has not been perforated”, said Jennifer Miskimins, F.H. Mick Merelli/Cimarex Energy Distinguished Department Head Chair at the Colorado School of Mines. The goal was to ascertain if the frac liners could be kept in place without shifting. According to a paper published about the method: “Both the anchored and unanchored, perforated and unperforated, patch/casing sections were then push/pull-tested to determine friction factors and the impacts of the perforating on the patch/casing interface. These results were then incorporated into [finite element method] FEM modeling to determine the ability of the full-size, field-deployed patch to remain stationary and the impact such would have on perforation alignment during treatment conditions.” The casing liners were found to stay in place when pressures much higher than normal frac pressures were applied, which validates the use of the liners.

     The last method covered is Formation Structure Analysis. This involves a new waterless frac design known as Pulsed power plasma stimulation (PPPS), which is already commonly used for removing rock in mining operations. The University of Houston’s (UH) Mohamed Y. Soliman believes PPPS has great potential for hydraulic fracturing as well as frac analysis. The method involves electromagnetic wave propagation (EWP) where a quite small amount of energy produced in a very short time interval, 5-6 milliseconds, is able to fracture rock. EWP acts like a shock wave. Perhaps the best use of the method is for fracture diagnostics and underground imaging. Initial tests on concrete cylinders have validated the method and further research is planned. They think the technique can beat microsesimic analysis in analyzing hydraulic fracturing results. 

References:

Exxon Works to Improve Fracking Methods. Transport Topics. June 1, 2023. Exxon Works to Improve Fracking Methods | Transport Topics (ttnews.com)

The Evolution of Carbonate Acidizing to Unlock Full Reservoir Production Potential. Baker Hughes. World Oil Webcast. June 21, 2023. The Evolution of Carbonate Acidizing to Unlock Full Reservoir Production Potential (4230897) (on24.com)

Sta-Live Extreme polymer-free, single-phase delayed acid system. Baker Hughes. Sta-Live Extreme polymer-free, single-phase delayed acid system | Baker Hughes

EOG Resources’ New Frac Design: A Game-Changer? Gib Knight. July 17, 2023. EOG Resources' New Frac Design: A Game-Changer? - OklahomaMinerals.com

Column: EOG On Its New Frac Design: ‘No Comment’. Nissa Darbonne. Hart Energy. Oil & Gas Investor. July 17, 2023. Column: EOG On Its New Frac Design: ‘No Comment’ | Hart Energy

Nanobubbles, NGLs Show Promise in Oil Recovery. Paul Wiseman. Hart Energy. E & P. June 13, 2023. Nanobubbles, NGLs Show Promise in Oil Recovery | Hart Energy

United States Patent Application Publication (10) Pub. No.: US 2015/0152318 A1

US 2015O152318A1 TRAVS (43) Pub. Date: Jun. 4, 2015. 1499073221569173883-US20150152318A1 (storage.googleapis.com)

Green Horse Energy (LinkedIn). (20) Green Horse Energy: Overview | LinkedIn

Squeezing Oil from Stone: The Quest to Improve Shale Recovery. Paul Wiseman. Hart Energy. July 25, 2023. Squeezing Oil from Stone: The Quest to Improve Shale Recovery | Hart Energy

New Report from Corporate Watchdog Group Alleges Environmental and Human Rights Violations by Chinese Energy Transition Mining Ventures

 

     A new report by the Business and Human Rights Resource Centre alleges widespread environmental and human rights violations involved in Chinese-financed green minerals mining in several countries around the world. The Centre is an NGO that tracks human rights related to corporate and business activity around the world. The countries with the worst violations are those with oppressive governments already known for human rights problems including Myanmar, Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), but also countries with more moderate human rights records like Indonesia and Peru.

     The transition minerals listed in the report are: copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel, manganese, zinc, chromium, aluminium, and rare earth elements (REEs). They note that global consumption of these minerals is projected to grow by six times by 2040, if that is possible.

 

From the executive summary of the report:

 

“China currently dominates the processing and refining of these key materials and the manufacturing of clean energy technologies, such as solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Despite US and European plans to diversify transition mineral supply chains, China is set to maintain its dominance for years to come. Chinese companies have been acquiring overseas mines and investing in mineral-rich countries to secure the sourcing of transition minerals. This includes efforts in Indonesia, which has the world’s biggest nickel reserves and is seeking to develop an integrated EV supply chain and become an EV battery producer and exporter by virtue of foreign investment and technologies from China and other transnational corporations. Other resource-rich countries, such as Zimbabwe and Bolivia, are preparing to follow suit.”

 

Thus, China is set to continue dominating these mining, processing, and manufacturing markets while these industries grow by six times. Obviously, reliance on China for these commodities and services will grow along with demand. That is concerning, especially in light of Russia’s energy market manipulation with their hydrocarbons. While I don’t think China will go the way of Russia, this report shows that China does indeed need to improve their environmental and human rights records.

 

     The report defines three top categories of impacts: 1) impacts on local communities and attacks against civil society organizations (CSO’s) – this includes impacts on livelihoods, indigenous rights, and insufficient/inadequate consultation; 2) environmental impacts, mainly water pollution, impacts on wildlife/species habitat, and access to water; and 3) impacts on workers, including occupational health and safety. So-called ‘allegations’ refer to abuse by a company, civil society action against companies, or publicly reported attacks against human rights defenders (HRDs).  Sources of allegations include “local and international NGOs and media reports, which cited concerns raised by workers, trade union or communities, primarily in English, Chinese, Spanish and French.” 

     Over two-thirds of the allegations involve human rights abuses against local communities. They note that only 7 of the 39 companies even have written human rights policies. The group only received responses from 4 of 22 companies contacted, underscoring the need for transparency and accountability.

     Out of 102 allegations Indonesia had the most at 27 followed by Peru at 16. About 64% of allegations were in Indonesia, Peru, DR Congo, and Myanmar. “The Resource Centre has recorded 20 allegations in two years regarding nickel smelter industrial parks and facilities in Indonesia. These allegations include links to major Chinese investor-dominated projects.” Indonesia is a major global supplier of nickel and is aiming to become a hub for EV manufacturing and nickel-based battery manufacturing. Some of these facilities are powered by coal plants. Nickel is both mined and processed in Indonesia. In Myanmar they note that “illicit and unregulated heavy rare earth extraction in conflict-affected areas taints global supply chain.” This illegal REE extraction has occurred mainly since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar and mainly in northern Kachin state which borders China. The report notes that “urgent and heightened environmental and human due diligence is needed across the entire supply chain to protect vulnerable communities and the environment in Myanmar.”

 

57% of the total amount of allegations are tied to these eight companies. The Centre calls for corporate accountability and access to remedy these issues. They say corporate impunity is the basic problem.

 

Peru is a major global copper producer. China acquired (part?) ownership of the large La Bambas copper mine, which represents about 2% of the world’s copper. Social conflicts and complaints about environmental impacts are the main issues in Peru.

 

One conclusion of the report is simply that many Chinese companies have not adequately addressed these issues. Many do not have stated policies and are often not forthcoming or transparent. The report includes three principles for a just energy transition: shared prosperity based on effective business models, human rights and social protection, and fair negotiations. Fair negotiations include implementing Free, Prior, and Informed Consent for Indigenous Peoples as well as fairness for workers and community members who may be impacted by projects. The report includes a set of recommendations. These recommendations are divided into five sections addressing five stakeholders. These include recommendations for the Chinese government, governments of host countries, companies across mineral supply chains, industry associations, and investors and financial institutions.  

     Recommendations to the Chinese government include 1) Mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (mHREDD) legislation within National Action Plan (NAP); 2) Access to remedy: (access to judicial and non-judicial mechanisms to provide effective remediation); 3) Oversight and communications: (should be in line with international standards, such as the UNGPs); 4) Embassies and consulates, specifically their Economic and Commercial Offices, should strengthen monitoring and guidance on Chinese companies operating in the host countries.

     Recommendations to host countries are similar to those for the Chinses government: 1) Mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence (mHREDD) legislation); 2) Access to remedy: (access to judicial and non-judicial mechanisms to provide effective remediation); and 3) Enforce and strengthen laws protecting local communities and Indigenous People’s rights.

     Recommendations tocompanies across mineral supply chains include: 1) Human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD; 2) Undertake meaningful and inclusive consultations with potentially affected rightsholders and other relevant groups, commit to obtaining consent and to co-ownership through equal dialogue on shared asset models; 3) Assign clear Board responsibility for and oversight of respect for human and environmental rights; 4) Conflict-affected environment & security: Conduct heightened human rights due diligence when companies operate in or source from a conflict-affected and high-risk environments (such as Myanmar and DRC) to mitigate risks of being complicit in gross human rights abuses committed by other actors; 5) Remedy: Establish communication and grievance mechanisms for potential or actual social, environmental or human rights impacts; and 6) Incorporate clauses regarding remediation of human rights harms in contracts with suppliers.
     Recommendations to industry association include: 1) Guide and assist enterprises to comply with international standards such as the UNGPs and OECD Guidelines; 2) Establish long-term, collaborative relationships with civil society organizations, especially in host countries; 3) Make good use of industry-level grievance mechanisms to facilitate dialogues and conduct investigations when concerns are expressed.

     Recommendations to investors and financial institutions include: 1) Commit to rights-respecting investments: with board oversight, undertake analysis consistent with the UNGPs and OECD Guidelines for human rights and environmental risks related to all transition minerals mining and renewable energy investments; 2) Actively engage with investee companies: adopt stewardship policies, and develop and implement plans to proactively prevent and mitigate human rights and environmental risks, alongside reputational, legal and regulatory risks; and 3) Undertake inclusive human rights and environmental due diligence.

 

Signs of Chinese Companies Addressing Human Rights and Sustainability as Chinese Battery Company Joins United Nations Global Compact?

 

     It was also just reported that Chinese battery company Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), which makes about a third of EV batteries, including batteries for Tesla and BMW, has joined the United Nations Global Compact. CATL is the biggest lithium battery manufacturer in the world. The Compact includes CEO’s that make non-binding pledges to address sustainability, social responsibility, human rights, and labor rights. Right now it is a one year commitment to support and willingness “to implement the org’s 10 principles on human rights, labor, the environment, and anti-corruption as part of business strategy, culture and daily operations.”

     However, the article also notes that “a substantial portion of the raw materials used in the global auto supply chain are sourced from Xinjiang, a region in which China is credibly accused of abusing the human rights of the Muslim minority Uyghur population.” Forced labor is one of the issues in Xinjiang, which also produces much of the worlds polysilicates for solar panels. CATL’s move is perhaps in response to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which bans any goods made with forced labor in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from entering the United States, which was passed with strong bipartisan support in 2021. Semiconductor companies, a drone maker, and polysilicon suppliers have been banned in the U.S. through the act. Thus, the move may be in response to concerns about being banned in the U.S. rather than a noble pivot towards sustainability and social responsibility. Nonetheless, it is a good start.  

 

 

 

References:

China accused of scores of abuses linked to ‘green mineral’ mining. Nina Lakhani and Amy Hawkins. The Gurardian. July 5, 2023. China accused of scores of abuses linked to ‘green mineral’ mining | China | The Guardian

Unpacking clean energy: Human rights impacts of Chinese overseas investment in transition minerals. Business and Human Rights Resource Centre. July 2023. 2023_China_TM_briefing.pdf (business-humanrights.org)

Chinese battery maker for the stars of the EV world suddenly wants to be seen powering human rights. Laura Dobberstein. The Register. July 11, 2023. Chinese battery maker for the stars of the EV world suddenly wants to be seen powering human rights (msn.com)

Natural Gas Power Replacing Coal Power in Urban Areas Means Significant Declines in Urban Air Pollution

 

     An article in the Global Energy Center’s new newsletter Power Play by senior fellow Joseph Webster showed with data and graphics that Beijing air quality has been improving steadily since 2013 while 6GW of natural gas were added to the grid and 2GW of coal were retired from the grid during the same time period. The very same thing has happened in other cities, including New York City, and there is much potential for more urban switching from coal to gas around the world to improve air quality. Lower urban pollution means better health outcomes, better quality of life, and relief for children who suffer from asthma.

     If natural gas can be produced and delivered responsibly, with reductions in venting and flaring and with more carbon capture and other decarbonization measures, it can improve air quality while also mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Webster notes that this should be part of the discussions at this year’s COP 28:

 

“Ahead of COP28 discussions this year, the United States, China, and other countries should encourage responsible natural gas production as a solution for reducing global emissions and urban air pollution.”

 

Of course, the biggest greenhouse gas emissions reductions occur simply when natural gas replaces coal and fuel oil. The decarbonization measures are additional reductions on top of that.

     In New York City it was No.4 and No. 6 fuel oil burned in about 10,000 NYC buildings in 2012 that was a main culprit for bad air quality. Then mayor Michael Bloomberg embarked on a plan to switch out those dirty fuel oils for cleaner No. 2 fuel oil and natural gas. With about $100 million in financing the plan was to reduce PM2.5 by 50% by 2013, an overly ambitious goal. NYC did manage to reduce PM2.5 by 30% by 2016 and it has remained at about that level since then. It could have been reduced significantly further at great cost advantage, but the anti-natural gas sentiment has stalled those efforts.

 

New York City. Particulate Matter 2.5 Weighted Annual Mean 2000-2022. Data Source: U.S. EPA

     Of course, as Webster points out, there were additional reasons for improvement of Beijing’s air quality: coal-fired plants were moved away from cities which moved the pollution to more rural areas, emissions control system implementation at coal plants, new emissions regulations, and elimination of coal-based heating and cooking by replacing them with gas as new natural gas pipeline and distribution infrastructure was built out as well as district heating and electrical heating. Public concern and health risk were clear motivations for China’s efforts to improve air quality.

 

Beijing’s average annual Air Quality Index (lower scores indicate less pollution)(Source: U.S. State Department, author Joseph Webster’s calculations)

     Webster also notes natural gas greenhouse gas emissions intensity differ considerably by source. Gas pipelined from Central Asia makes up about 34% of Chinese natural gas imports. Most of that gas comes from Turkmenistan which has the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity in the world. While pipelined gas is usually less emissions intense than LNG, if a new 30BCM line from Turkmenistan is built it would mean that the total pipelined gas from Turkmenistan to China would have a higher GHG emissions intensity than the total of U.S. LNG annual exports (150BCM). An important question is whether Turkmenistan will move to lower the emissions intensity of its natural gas exports. The country’s gas industry is plagued by aging infrastructure and lack of concern by the government which is run by a reclusive dictator.

     There is a clear opportunity for further improvements in air quality. What stand in the way of that have been mentioned here: 1) not replacing coal and fuel oil with natural gas, 2) making no efforts to decrease emissions intensity of certain supplies (ie. Turkmenistan), and 3) banning natural gas and its delivery (in the case of NYC and a few other cities) in an ill-conceived push for green energy. This opportunity will continue around the world.

 

References:

Natural gas reduced China’s urban air pollution. Can it be a global climate solution? Joseph Webster, June 6, 2023. Natural gas reduced China’s urban air pollution. Can it be a global climate solution? - Atlantic Council

Beijing’s air quality meets national standards: a major milestone in China’s war on smog. Laura Myllyvirta. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. January 5, 2022. Beijing's air quality meets national standards: a major milestone in China's war on smog – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

Why Is NYC Swapping Residential Heating Oil for Natural Gas? Scientific American. August 1, 2012. Why Is NYC Swapping Residential Heating Oil for Natural Gas? - Scientific American

Turkmenistan Faces Unprecedented Calls to Clean Up Methane Leaks. Bloomberg. April 27, 2023. Global Climate Talks Target Reclusive Turkmenistan Over Methane - Bloomberg