Natural Gas Power Replacing Coal Power in Urban Areas Means Significant Declines in Urban Air Pollution

 

     An article in the Global Energy Center’s new newsletter Power Play by senior fellow Joseph Webster showed with data and graphics that Beijing air quality has been improving steadily since 2013 while 6GW of natural gas were added to the grid and 2GW of coal were retired from the grid during the same time period. The very same thing has happened in other cities, including New York City, and there is much potential for more urban switching from coal to gas around the world to improve air quality. Lower urban pollution means better health outcomes, better quality of life, and relief for children who suffer from asthma.

     If natural gas can be produced and delivered responsibly, with reductions in venting and flaring and with more carbon capture and other decarbonization measures, it can improve air quality while also mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Webster notes that this should be part of the discussions at this year’s COP 28:

 

“Ahead of COP28 discussions this year, the United States, China, and other countries should encourage responsible natural gas production as a solution for reducing global emissions and urban air pollution.”

 

Of course, the biggest greenhouse gas emissions reductions occur simply when natural gas replaces coal and fuel oil. The decarbonization measures are additional reductions on top of that.

     In New York City it was No.4 and No. 6 fuel oil burned in about 10,000 NYC buildings in 2012 that was a main culprit for bad air quality. Then mayor Michael Bloomberg embarked on a plan to switch out those dirty fuel oils for cleaner No. 2 fuel oil and natural gas. With about $100 million in financing the plan was to reduce PM2.5 by 50% by 2013, an overly ambitious goal. NYC did manage to reduce PM2.5 by 30% by 2016 and it has remained at about that level since then. It could have been reduced significantly further at great cost advantage, but the anti-natural gas sentiment has stalled those efforts.

 

New York City. Particulate Matter 2.5 Weighted Annual Mean 2000-2022. Data Source: U.S. EPA

     Of course, as Webster points out, there were additional reasons for improvement of Beijing’s air quality: coal-fired plants were moved away from cities which moved the pollution to more rural areas, emissions control system implementation at coal plants, new emissions regulations, and elimination of coal-based heating and cooking by replacing them with gas as new natural gas pipeline and distribution infrastructure was built out as well as district heating and electrical heating. Public concern and health risk were clear motivations for China’s efforts to improve air quality.

 

Beijing’s average annual Air Quality Index (lower scores indicate less pollution)(Source: U.S. State Department, author Joseph Webster’s calculations)

     Webster also notes natural gas greenhouse gas emissions intensity differ considerably by source. Gas pipelined from Central Asia makes up about 34% of Chinese natural gas imports. Most of that gas comes from Turkmenistan which has the highest greenhouse gas emissions intensity in the world. While pipelined gas is usually less emissions intense than LNG, if a new 30BCM line from Turkmenistan is built it would mean that the total pipelined gas from Turkmenistan to China would have a higher GHG emissions intensity than the total of U.S. LNG annual exports (150BCM). An important question is whether Turkmenistan will move to lower the emissions intensity of its natural gas exports. The country’s gas industry is plagued by aging infrastructure and lack of concern by the government which is run by a reclusive dictator.

     There is a clear opportunity for further improvements in air quality. What stand in the way of that have been mentioned here: 1) not replacing coal and fuel oil with natural gas, 2) making no efforts to decrease emissions intensity of certain supplies (ie. Turkmenistan), and 3) banning natural gas and its delivery (in the case of NYC and a few other cities) in an ill-conceived push for green energy. This opportunity will continue around the world.

 

References:

Natural gas reduced China’s urban air pollution. Can it be a global climate solution? Joseph Webster, June 6, 2023. Natural gas reduced China’s urban air pollution. Can it be a global climate solution? - Atlantic Council

Beijing’s air quality meets national standards: a major milestone in China’s war on smog. Laura Myllyvirta. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. January 5, 2022. Beijing's air quality meets national standards: a major milestone in China's war on smog – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

Why Is NYC Swapping Residential Heating Oil for Natural Gas? Scientific American. August 1, 2012. Why Is NYC Swapping Residential Heating Oil for Natural Gas? - Scientific American

Turkmenistan Faces Unprecedented Calls to Clean Up Methane Leaks. Bloomberg. April 27, 2023. Global Climate Talks Target Reclusive Turkmenistan Over Methane - Bloomberg