Seasonal Wind Speed Drops, Solar Generation Drops, and Low Hydro Output Lead to Rise in Natural Gas Share of Power in Germany

      Germany is currently burning natural gas at 2019 rates of 19% of the total share of electricity due to seasonal reductions in wind speeds, seasonal solar reductions, and low hydro output. The low wind output is the main issue since solar reductions are more certain and easier to account for. Germany’s wind plus hydro output together dropped 7% from last year’s January to October period. For the same period, natural gas use climbed 15%. Irina Slav for Oil Price US notes that the drop in wind output is despite new wind projects coming online earlier in the year. A July article in Clean Energy Wire notes that new wind additions consisted of:

 “…409 newly constructed turbines with a combined capacity of 2.2 gigawatts (GW).”

     In the same period last year, wind and hydro accounted for 34% of the generation share, but this year it is down to 31%. Coal output is also up by 4%. Energy by source is shown below for the 10-month period.

     The next graph shows the power generation mix by output and percentage, respectively, from 2022 to the present. One can see the phase-out of nuclear, the continued prevalence of coal, mostly high-emissions lignite coal, which hit 30% of total grid power last winter, and the relatively small contribution of hydro.

     Below is shown the last four seasons of the combined output of wind plus hydro generation.

     Germany has had to diversify away from pipelined Russian gas at a huge financial cost. The country’s gamble to deal with Putin failed them. They now must import LNG at much higher prices than they would have gotten the Russian gas. However, they put in place the means to do that.

     Germany hosts about 25% of Europe’s gas storage capacity. The increased natural gas use has cut into the country's gas storage inventories, which are now at 75.24% of capacity, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, as reported by Slav. ( I think the 86% on the graph below may have to due with a storage capacity of greater than 100% used for calculation, but I don't know why). Europe as a whole is 13.5% lower in gas storage than the average for this time of year. One concern is that Germany and the EU will be exposed to power price volatility when winter hits.

     Germany’s near-term wind forecasts suggest that the wind output will remain low for the rest of the month, then increase back to normal output for the remainder of the winter.

 

References:

 

Germany Burns More Gas as Renewables Falter Ahead of Winter. Irina Slav. Oil Price US. November 5, 2025. Germany Burns More Gas as Renewables Falter Ahead of Winter

Germany's higher gas use hampers Europe's stockpiling drive. Gavin Maguire. Reuters. November 5, 2025. Germany's higher gas use hampers Europe's stockpiling drive | Reuters

Renewables share slightly down in Germany in first half of 2025, but wind expansion gains steam. Benjamin Wehrmann. Clean energy Wire. July 15, 2025. Renewables share slightly down in Germany in first half of 2025, but wind expansion gains steam | Clean Energy Wire