Export Boom or Energy Bust? The LNG Balancing Act: Summary, Review, and Commentary of Geoscientist Jason Eleson’s Post in ‘The Energy Centrist Blog’

     This post weighs the pros and cons of the impending U.S. LNG export boom. It is true that the U.S. does not have an unlimited amount of natural gas to produce, convert to LNG, and sell to foreign countries. U.S. LNG exports have grown from virtually zero before 2014 to the world’s largest in basically a decade, due to the shale revolution involving many technological achievements such as high-volume hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling, longer drilling, optimized proppant loading and frac stage spacing, multi-well pads, and many other innovations that increase production.  

     He frames the debate and asks whether expanded LNG exports support American geopolitical influence and energy security or increase domestic energy prices while guaranteeing more fossil fuel infrastructure at odds with climate goals. They really do both. He also notes that LNG exports already exceed residential natural gas consumption. He notes that current exports are at about 15BCF/day, with about 13BCF/day of additional export capacity under construction and expected to be online by 2029.

     Utilizing his standard Energy Centrist Blog format Eleson gives the arguments for expanded LNG exports as: 1) Global energy security and geopolitical leverage – in this case it is mostly European energy security and pivoting away from Russian gas; 2) Economic benefits and job creation – LNG exports add significantly to GDP and support hundreds of thousands of jobs; 3) Environmental benefits through coal replacement – this continues to happen, especially in Asia, which is a huge buyer of LNG. LNG, of course, also has significantly reduced carbon emissions relative to coal. He notes:

“With policy initiatives further lowering lifecycle emissions from US gas production, liquefaction, and shipping, and with many facilities adopting carbon capture, US LNG can play a significant role in decarbonizing global energy systems as long as coal remains a principal alternative in growth markets.”

     His section on ‘Centrist Arguments’ compares the benefits and potential costs to consumers. He notes that the American Petroleum Institute (API) claims that LNG exports have not affected domestic consumer prices, but the Energy Information Administration and utilities are reporting that 2025 and 2026 domestic gas prices are being affected by increasing exports. The price concern is dependent on whether U.S. domestic natural gas production will keep up with LNG demand. He notes that natural gas from the Permian and Haynesville regions will have to grow to support exports. 

     LNG exports have not affected domestic gas prices too much in the past, as shown below, but that is no guarantee that they won't in the future. 

     Regarding ‘Arguments Against,’ he notes:

“Opponents argue that since the US began ramping up LNG exports, domestic residential gas prices have surged 52% nationwide (exceeding 60% in several states!) while industrial prices rose 31%...”

     Other concerns include the effects of climate. LNG is replacing coal, but also replacing renewables. Communities along the Gulf Coast are already burdened with many petrochemical plants and legitimate claims of health problems due to pollution. Another concern is the economic effects on domestic customers, including industrial customers. More LNG exports increase the likelihood of winter price spikes and storage inventory risks. They may also increase global price swings. He also notes that LNG export approvals now equal about 50% of the total national gas supply. He notes that how long expanded exports will increase domestic gas prices depends on:

“…shale output, pipeline buildout, and shifts in international gas demand and supply—including growth from China and rival exporters like Qatar.”

     Another variable that is unknown is whether there will be a global oversupply.

“…some analysts project a market oversupply from 2027 onward and potential global demand peak as early as 2030, with European LNG demand likely to fall in the 2030s as renewables expand…”   

     U.S. pipeline buildout is another unknown. Will it be enough to supply both export and domestic markets? The prolific Appalachian region, which produces a third of the gas from the lower 48, is still significantly pipeline-constrained, with limited takeaway capacity. By 2030, exports could double residential consumption.

     With LNG prices in Europe and Asia about three times what natural gas costs are in the U.S., LNG remains a good export investment. However, as more and more LNG comes onto the global market, those prices are likely to drop. U.S. natural gas demand in recent years has been increasing at a rate of about 2% per year, but that growth rate could climb to between 3 and 6% per year by 2030 due to LNG demand and increased domestic demand due to AI data centers.

“If there is any good news for US natural gas consumers, it is that AI-sourced demand for natural gas will likely be stymied by supply chain issues. U.S. natural gas power plants are currently facing severe turbine supply chain challenges, with major manufacturers reporting backorders of three to seven years for high-capacity turbines. GE Vernova, Siemens, and Mitsubishi are all experiencing unprecedented demand, with some utilities and project developers unable to secure new turbines until at least 2028–2031 as of late 2025, and procurement costs for equipment up 36% or more over previous estimates due to backlogs, tariffs, and high commodity prices. These long wait times stem from surging orders driven by AI/data center power demand, limited domestic manufacturing, and dependence on international suppliers for critical parts, creating growing risk of grid reliability issues, project delays, and ballooning budgets for gas-fired generation across the U.S.”

     At some point, more natural gas drilling will be required. However, producers will likely wait for Henry Hub price signals before any drilling boom happens. If they wait too long, prices could spike for American consumers. One issue he does not address is the U.S. long-term natural gas supply. While that supply looks good, there are issues in some basins with shrinking Tier 1 drilling locations. This could affect prices in the future, causing them to rise if drilling doesn’t keep up with demand. I think this may become more of an issue in the 2030s.

     As always, this is a very informative and thought-provoking blog post that considers opposing views. I know, as a consumer of natural gas for power, that I am concerned about my power bill rising too high. I already keep it cool in the winter.

     

 

 

References:

 

Export Boom or Energy Bust? The LNG Balancing Act. Jason Eleson. The Energy Centrist. October 26, 2025. Export Boom or Energy Bust? The LNG Balancing Act