Although I would
prefer it if the Trump administration would not be so conditional in their
Ukraine War diplomacy, I think Trump’s demand that EU countries punish
'sanctions-busting' by India and China via tariffs and stop EU member countries
from buying Russian oil is a good proposal. While tying U.S. cooperation with
EU cooperation in this particular way is probably not fully necessary, the end
result would be a powerful deterrent against sanctions evasion. India and China
have long been profiting from the war, as have other countries that buy other
low-cost Russian goods, such as Brazil, which buys diesel products, wheat, and
fertilizer. India, in particular, has profited from Russian oil, some of which
they refine and sell to other countries, including some European countries,
which defeats the purpose and effectiveness of sanctions. Everyone agrees that
Putin needs to be pressured, and this would be a good way to do it.
Trump unveiled his
demand/proposal as a ‘letter to the world’ in a post on his social media site.
“I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all
NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO
Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA."
NATO country Türkiye is the
third largest buyer of Russian crude after India and China, although it buys
much less than India and China. Other NATO/EU buyers include Hungary and
Slovakia. Their leaders, Orban and Fico, respectively, have been defiant in
their buying of Russian hydrocarbons and lack of support for Ukrainian
objectives. While Orban is a Trump ally, he has to be concerned with the
proposal, probably hoping it goes away. According to the Mirror, Britain just
enacted :
“… a ban on 70 vessels allegedly used in its
transportation. The UK also sanctioned 30 individuals and companies, included
businesses based in China and Turkey, that have supplied Russia with
electronics, chemicals, explosives and other weapons components. In his post,
Trump said a Nato ban on Russian oil plus tariffs on China would “also be of
great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR”.”
Bloomberg does a good job in tracking Russian oil sales, including all the sanctions-evasion activities it engages in, including running 'ghost fleets' with tracking often turned off, open-sea covert oil transfers, and other sanctions evasion practices.
As can be seen in the graph below, India has particularly profited from the war from its beginning and even after Trump's retaliation, has shown little to no effort to change anything. And as I mentioned, some of that Russian oil refined in India gets sold elsewhere, including to some EU countries.
Trump also advocated for
50-100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods. I believe the
U.S. currently has a 50% tariff on India and a 30% tariff on China.
This would put Orban and Hungary in a tight spot. Orban had already gotten an
exemption from the EU due to its deep dependence on Russian oil, but has had
three and a half years now to do something about it, preferring to address the
issue only lightly. Hungary is also deeply invested in China. Trump noted that deep
sanctions cooperation between the U.S. and the E.U. could break the economic
grip between China and Russia and force the war’s conclusion. At least it could
force a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, in Russia, the
extreme media via propagandist Vladimir Solovyov is calling for the U.S. to
switch sides, to “…come over to the side of good,” calling Ukraine a “global
evil.” He also noted that the recently murdered political pundit Charlie
Kirk despised Zelensky and Ukraine, although I don’t know if that was really
the case. He depicted the issue as right vs. left, with Russia and the current
U.S. government on the same side of conservatism and traditionalism. Former
Russian president and current head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry
Medvedev, also known for excessive rhetoric and propaganda, had this to say on
X:
“Political crimes and assasinations have been carried
out lately by a variety of left-wing liberal scum who support Banderite Kiev.
‘Fico, Kirk. Who’s next? Maybe it’s time for the MAGA team to realize that by
supporting Ukraine, they’re supporting murderers.’”
The propagandist assertions
are ridiculous and should be a means to easily ascertain the focus of the
Russian arguments for invading Ukraine and potentially other countries, which
is to argue that traditional and conservative rights are being denied by
freedom-loving liberals. In a way, it’s like religious liberty arguments, but
in this case, warmongering liberty arguments. In reality, there is no
reasonable argument for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the biggest and most bloody
war in Europe since World War II, and one started by a mad dictator and his
government with so many brutalities and war crimes, it would take a long time
just to mention them. Putin is a murderer and clearly one of the most, if not
the “evil-est” person in the world, by some measures. He is comparable to
Hitler in his brutality and madness, as are his henchmen.
I hope that these deep
sanctions, preferably with the tariffs Trump mentions, happen quickly and
maximize pressure on Putin. I am not a fan of tariffs, but in this case, they
are warranted. However, this will also need to be supplemented with sufficient
combat supplies for Ukraine in terms of interceptor missiles, ammunition, and
air defense systems, especially as Russia gets ready to do the usual – bomb the
hell out of Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure. Ukraine has also been
drone bombing Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, closer to an actual war
target than a civilian target, and has already knocked a chunk of it offline.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has argued for NATO ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine,
but Finland’s President Alexander Stubb has pushed back on that, insisting
correctly that before that can happen, Ukraine needs to be adequately supplied
to counter Russia’s firepower, expand its defense systems, along with
intelligence and economic support. Stubb has advocated for:
· Bilateral
and multilateral security agreements that act as guarantees until full NATO
membership is possible.
· Continuous
military aid pipelines to prevent battlefield shortages.
· Training
Ukrainian forces abroad, particularly in NATO member states like Poland and
Germany.
According to
Bloomberg, Hungary has been making some efforts to diversify its energy and oil
purchases, but recent gestures have been inadequate:
“Hungary last week signed a 10-year deal with Shell Plc
for 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas — a largely symbolic volume given
Hungary’s consumption is multiples of that annually. Orban also traveled to the
United Arab Emirates and Qatar on Friday to discuss energy.”
“The Hungarian official said past diversification
efforts, including a deal for gas imports from Azerbaijan and oil imports via a
pipeline through Croatia, are coming in handy now.”
I have also heard of a recent oil
discovery in Hungary, so more of those could be helpful in the future.
According to Andras Deak, a
researcher at the National Public Service University in Budapest:
“The US can really give a check-mate to Orban on Russian
energy — if it wants do…The question is whether the Trump-Orban relationship
offers actual protection to Hungary if push comes to shove.”
References:
EU
Grapples With How to Navigate Trump’s Demands on Russian Oil. Alberto Nardelli,
Zoltan Simon and Ewa Krukowska. Bloomberg. September 15, 2025. EU
Grapples With How to Navigate Trump’s Demands on Russian Oil
Donald
Trump reveals plans to ‘quickly’ end war in Ukraine in ‘letter to world’. Monica
Charsley. Mirror. September 14, 2025. Donald
Trump reveals plans to ‘quickly’ end war in Ukraine in ‘letter to world’
Russian
media urges Trump to fight with Putin: “America has to come over to the side of
good”. Kathrine Frich. Dagens, September 15, 2025. Russian
media urges Trump to fight with Putin: “America has to come over to the side of
good”
Boots
on the Ground: US and UK Asked to Deploy Soldiers to Ukraine. The Kenya Times.
September 14, 2025. Boots
on the Ground: US and UK Asked to Deploy Soldiers to Ukraine
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