The Energy Centrist: Blog by Geoscientist Jason Eleson: Review

      This is an interesting blog by a senior geologist specializing in CCS and decarbonization. I have attended one of Jason’s excellent webinars on CCS geology, engineering, and economics. One thing that makes the blog interesting is that he will take an energy topic, current event, policy, or controversial subject, and try to analyze it and see it from three perspectives: left, right, and center. The blog is very informative and makes a good attempt to see the subjects from each perspective.

     The post on grid-scale batteries is great and digs pretty deep, giving up-to-date, realistic information about the advantages and limitations of batteries, covering costs, safety, environmental impacts, and geopolitics. Eleson gives a format to each post that acts as a comprehensive standard for evaluating the merits of a technology from a wide variety of perspectives. This includes standard headings such as Nutshell, Overview, Arguments For, Centrist Arguments, Arguments Against, Notable Quotables, Watt We Don’t Know, Our Take, Points to Ponder, What Happens Next, and Dig Deeper. It’s really a great way to organize these topics, which often have lots of pros and cons.

     The Energy Centrist is a blog by a smart guy with nuanced and evolved views of the subject matter. It seems to me to be a very good way to organize arguments and set up debates about the subjects. This is a well-thought-out energy analysis with limited bias that deserves more of our attention. I believe that such an approach will help us solve our energy problems rather than endlessly debate them based on partisanship.

     The blog is hosted on Substack for free, with donations accepted. We really need more perspectives and blogs like this. It sure beats all the heavily biased perspectives that are out there.

     Subjects covered so far in the Energy Centrist blog include batteries, natural gas powering data centers, the GHG reporting rollback, the ‘Endangerment Finding’ rollback, Atlantic hurricanes, wind power in the Trump era, small modular nuclear reactors, the attempted revival of coal power, and Chris Wright’s attempt to rewire the DOE.

     In his post about the greenhouse gas reporting rollback. Eleson warns that it is probably not a good idea. I mean, it is hard for scientists to support things like making data unavailable since it is data that supports conclusions. The idea of no longer tracking emissions, no longer collecting data on them, cannot be seen as a good move by most scientists, simply due to the fact that it decreases our knowledge about what is going on:

“Lee Zeldin has made many large, permanent structural changes during his short time at the EPA, but this one could come back to haunt him. Just as loss of wind and solar jobs will be felt by communities that had IRA-backed funding disappear (with little prospect of comparable replacement industries or jobs), so too it may be the proposed GHGRP repeal. Ironically, some of the biggest protests may come from oil and gas companies that are seeking to showcase and quantify their recent GHG reductions from things like efficiency improvements, displacing coal with natural gas as the powerplant fuel of choice and being leaders in the CCS movement. If Mr. Zeldin wants to do repeal GHGRP requirements, we believe he should be more transparent about his motives. It seems as if his primary motivation stems from a lack of concern or belief in climate change, or the negative impacts associated with it. If so, he should lead with that and keep the cost savings as a secondary goal. Other reforms he has undertaken could genuinely improve the growth prospects for many industries in the US…this does not appear to be one of them.”

This blog is highly recommended!

 

   

 

References:

 

Backup Plan or Blind Spot? The Battery Bet Revolutionizing Power: Can advanced batteries make renewable energy dependable—and affordable—for all? The Energy Centrist. Jason Eleson. September 28, 2025. Backup Plan or Blind Spot? The Battery Bet Revolutionizing Power

Turbines, Tech, and Trade-Offs: The electrifying debate over the role of natural gas in powering tomorrow's data centers. The Energy Centrist. Jason Eleson. September 21, 2025. Turbines, Tech, and Trade-Offs - The Energy Centrist

GHG Reporting Rollback: EPA'S $2.4 Billion Emission Omission: Weighing regulatory relief against the cost of losing America’s carbon compass. The Energy Centrist. Jason Eleson. September 13, 2025. GHG Reporting Rollback: EPA'S $2.4 Billion Emission Omission

 

 

Solar is a Doubled-Edged Sword in Pakistan as it Helps Farmers but Raises Power Prices and Accelerates Groundwater Depletion

     Solar-powered irrigation pumps are becoming a successful trend in Pakistan. One old farmer in the Punjab region referred to it as a “societal revolution” not seen since Pakistan built its highway system about four decades ago. Solar generation has grown manyfold in Pakistan, now accounting for nearly one-half of grid power. The boom was triggered by lower solar panel costs from Chinese imports and government subsidies. It has allowed many Pakistani households to go off-grid completely, although many stay grid-tied to take advantage of net metering, where they can sell their excess power back to the grid. The Pakistani power grid is aging, overburdened, and costly. Electricity prices doubled between 2021 and 2024, before the government stepped in to stabilize them.

“Elsewhere in the sane world as in Pakistan, ordinary people have taken matters into their own hands, putting up rooftop solar power on individual homes now equal to one-half of the country’s electric grid. The biggest solar adopters are farmers, using solar to replace diesel fuel to power field generators for water irrigation. As a result, Pakistan used 35% less diesel fuel last year than the year before.”

     An emerging issue is that while wealthy consumers tend to go solar, poorer residents must absorb a higher percentage of the higher power costs. After decades of power shortages, Pakistan now has an excess of power plants, after building several new coal-fired plants since 2010. The solar boom in Pakistan appears to be mainly a rooftop solar and solar irrigation boom. Generous subsidies, some at 60%, are fueling the boom. Apparently, it is simply a better deal than connecting to the grid, which, for rural customers, means additional costs like purchasing transformers.

     Among those connected to the grid, the high power costs force some people to choose between food and power. High temperatures in the country make some kind of cooling, whether via fans or air conditioners, very desirable. Pakistan’s net metering policy, where it pays grid-tied solar customers for their excess power, has led to financial losses due to too much excess power. The situation also shows an inherent flaw of availability in solar subsidization – that the wealthy, those who can afford the upfront costs, will benefit the most. That has definitely been the case in Pakistan as elsewhere. In a sense, it exacerbates inequality by extending opportunities to the wealthy that the poor cannot afford.

     Proposed solutions include promoting and subsidizing battery systems, more government investment in solar, limits on the sizes of solar systems, and grid modernization.

     Another trend among Pakistani farmers is solar-powered tube wells, where solar energy powers the well pump. This is creating more opportunities for farmers. It has resulted in 30% more rice farming and 10% less maize farming from 2023 to 2025. In the drought-prone region of the Punjab, there are dried riverbeds. Growing less water-intensive crops, such as rice, would be better since drops in the groundwater table have been associated with the solar-powered tube well boom. These tube wells do not require permits or registration, so it is unknown how many there are. There must be quite a few since it is expected that the amount of grid electricity consumed by the agricultural sector is expected to drop by 45% from 2023 through 2025. An advisor to Pakistan’s energy minister, Amar Habib, renewables analyst Syed Faizan Ali Shah, and Reuters calculated that 400,000 tube wells were converted from grid power or diesel to solar, and 250,000 new ones were drilled since 2023, suggesting a total of 650,000 tube wells.

     According to Reuters:

“The water table has shrunk below 60 feet - a level designated as critical by the provincial irrigation department - across 6.6% of Punjab as of 2024, according to maps published for internal use by water authorities and seen by Reuters. That marks an increase of some 25% between 2020 and 2024, while the deepest pockets - with water levels beyond 80 feet - more than doubled in size during the same period.”

     Reuters also noted that Pakistan’s energy minister, Awais Leghari, disagreed that solar pumping was depleting groundwater, citing the fact that the same amount of land was under cultivation. However, he did not respond when asked about the growth of rice farming. Low wheat prices have stressed farmers in the region and put pressure on them to grow more profitable crops. Farmers are also banding together to purchase solar panels in a community solar type of approach.

"Farmers share, rent and move panels like tractors," said Lahore-based solar-panel merchant Shahab Qureshi. "They sell land, jewellery, or take loans just to get it. Within five to six months, your return on investment is fulfilled."

     Punjab is piloting about 40 groundwater recharge projects, which have increased in importance since India signaled it would restrict the sharing of Indus River water earlier this year. Farmers are also hoping to increase surface water irrigation projects and utilize older infrastructure, such as old siphon tunnels, to access more water and lessen the load on groundwater resources. What Pakistan does not have is a detailed mapping of water wells and quantitative data on water withdrawals. For sure, groundwater depletion in the region is a problem to be monitored and mitigated.

   

References:

 

How Pakistan’s solar energy boom led to higher power bills for the poor. Rick Noack and Shaiq Hussain. Washington Post. August 24, 2025. How Pakistan’s solar energy boom led to higher power bills for the poor

Clean Solar Outshines Filthy Oil. Robert Hunziker. Z Network. September 2, 2025.  Clean Solar Outshines Filthy Oil

Solar-powered farming is digging Pakistan into a water catastrophe. Ariba Shahid. Reuters. October 1, 2025. Solar-powered farming is digging Pakistan into a water catastrophe

 

Coal Nostalgia by the Trump Administration is Likely to Be Short-Lived Due to Future Political Control and Regulatory Uncertainty

     By short-lived, I mean when the administration encounters loss of political control from Congress and eventually the presidency, which I believe will happen. The current administration is enacting policies and executive orders as if those will never be rolled back. By the time some of the policies are enacted, such as producing more coal, they may be facing rollbacks. While there is certainly some concern about future power reliability due to the loss of baseload power generation sources, including coal, especially in light of increasing projected power demand, it is unlikely to mean a revival in coal production and coal-fired plant upgrading. There will, however, likely be more coal plant retirement delays. I don’t think the power industry believes a coal revival in power production is likely.

     The Trump administration announced recently that it will open 13 million acres of federal lands for coal mining and provide $625 million to recommission or modernize coal-fired power plants. The plan for the spending is shown below.

     The call to ‘mine, baby, mine’ echoes the call to drill, baby, drill, which has not resulted in any drilling growth over the last eight and a half months. The so-called ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ lowered federal royalty rates for coal mining from 12.5% to 7%, a significant decrease that officials said will help ensure U.S. coal producers can compete in global markets. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum noted:

“By reducing the royalty rate for coal, increasing coal acres available for leasing and unlocking critical minerals from mine waste, we are strengthening our economy, protecting national security and ensuring that communities from Montana to Alabama benefit from good-paying jobs."

     The DOE also listed all the actions they have initiated to support America's coal industry:

     EPA administrator Lee Zeldin suggested it was heavy-handed regulations from the Biden administration that hurt coal, but that argument has been debunked, including by centrist conservatives such as Benji Backer, who wrote an op-ed to argue that it was market forces that caused coal use to drop.

     The EPA also announced that it will delay seven deadlines related to wastewater pollution from coal-fired power plants. The rule on coal residuals (CR), or coal ash left over from burning the coal, which sits in giant piles of sludge in unlined ponds, will be delayed. Coal ash has been found to pollute local groundwater with toxic heavy metals wherever it is stored in such a way.

     Two coal plants in Ohio, near where I live and likely where my power comes from, have some of the biggest unlined coal ash piles. These are very old plants; one was built in 1954 and one in 1974-75. While they have been modernized to some extent with pollution control equipment, they are surely getting close to the end of their lifetimes. I actually interviewed for a job at the older of the two plants a few years ago, but was not selected. One plant has been associated with several events where black soot was spread all over the immediate region. Local people were very concerned. Eventually, the power company bought out many of the local houses in the town of Cheshire, which is much diminished now. 

     When the second Trump administration began, those plant owners were given new hope for continued operations.

“We just feel like the last administration, all of these regulations were really designed to force the closure of coal plants,” said Michelle Bloodworth, president and CEO of industry group America’s Power.

     According to an April 2025 AP article by Michael Phillis:

“Environmentalists worry about coal ash and its heavy metals in part because there’s so much of it – more than 100 million tons is produced each year, much of which sits near lakes and rivers in sprawling disposal sites. Some is reused, but a lot is stored near coal plants in coal ash ponds that may not have a lining to keep it from leaching into groundwater.”

“It can be disastrous when companies fail to keep that waste in place. In 2008, a huge dike burst at a Tennessee coal plant. That released more than a billion gallons of coal ash, polluting rivers, toppling homes and shortening the lives of many cleanup workers who spent months exposed to its toxicity.”

“That disaster helped lead to the first federal standards for coal ash disposal in 2015. Those included requirements for companies to line new storage sites, conduct water monitoring and ensure many leaky ponds closed safely, often requiring the material to be moved elsewhere.”

“It contains a lot of important protections, but it didn’t apply to all the coal ash that utilities were managing,” said Nick Torrey, an attorney with the nonprofit Southern Environmental Law Center.

     The 2600 MW Gavin power plant was sold in late 2024, from one private equity owner to another, which I posted about. It became operational in 1974-1975. According to the Sierra Club, it is the plant they associate with the most deaths from pollution in the country, as well as fifth in CO2 emissions among power plants. It is the largest emitter of PM 2.5 particulate matter from a single source in the U.S. Lucky for me, the air blows the other way. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently echoed Trump in referring to coal as “beautiful, clean coal.” While its beauty is debatable, it is not clean.

“The EPA estimated Biden’s rules would cost the industry as much as $240 million annually. America’s Power says forcing plants like Gavin to remove coal ash that sits below the water table that they don’t believe is a significant threat to the area’s groundwater and drinking water is extremely costly and can force shutdowns.”

     Matthew Daly of AP writes:

“Coal once provided more than half of U.S. electricity production, but its share dropped to about 15% in 2024, down from about 45% as recently as 2010. Natural gas provides about 43% of U.S. electricity, with the remainder from nuclear energy and renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower.”

“Energy experts say any bump for coal under Trump is likely to be temporary because natural gas is cheaper, and there’s a durable market for renewable energy such as wind and solar power no matter who holds the White House.”

     The notion of using coal to power AI is both nostalgic and dangerous. Projected data center load growth is not just from AI, but nearly one third of it (about 30%) is projected to be to power cryptocurrency. The notion of polluting people to provide transaction security that benefits criminals (crypto is a favorite of money launderers) and stock speculators seems beyond nostalgic to me. It seems almost diabolical in the sense that there are better ways to provide transaction security and better ways to expend energy. We have plenty of natural gas, especially here in the Midwest/Northeast, that can be used for power plants and AI that is cheaper than coal, except during cold snaps when inadequate pipeline capacity and other infrastructure like gas storage fields become temporarily unavailable. We really don’t need coal for power and AI. Meanwhile, environmentalists continue to pursue the denigration of natural gas, which is much cleaner and more often cheaper than coal.  

 

 

    

References:

 

Trump administration opens more land for coal mining, offers $625M to boost coal-fired power plants. Matthew Daly. Associated Press. September 29, 2025. Trump administration opens more land for coal mining, offers $625M to boost coal-fired power plants

Energy Department Announces $625 Million Investment to Reinvigorate and Expand America’s Coal Industry. U.S. Dept, of Energy. September 29, 2025. Energy Department Announces $625 Million Investment to Reinvigorate and Expand America’s Coal Industry | Department of Energy

Burning coal leaves dangerous waste. Trump’s EPA eyes looser rules for handling it. Michael Phillis. Associated Press. April 16, 2025. Burning coal leaves dangerous waste. Trump's EPA eyes looser rules for handling it | AP News