U.S. Utility-Scale Solar and Wind Generation Hit a Record 17% Share (19% if Smaller Deployments are Included) in 2025 Despite Solar Deployments Dropping by 22%

      Utility-scale solar and wind have reached a new record as generation share on the U.S. grid, hitting 17% in 2025. The EIA defines utility-scale as facilities that produce 1MW or greater. If smaller deployments such as rooftop solar are included, then the share rises to 19%. That is quite an accomplishment. In comparison, the EU, which does not have the domestic supply of oil & gas that the U.S. has, is at 30% share for utility-scale wind and solar. The EU's stronger push for renewables has come at a cost, and electricity prices continue to be the highest where renewables penetration is highest - Germany and California, for example.

     From the EIA graph below, it can be seen that utility-scale solar and wind doubled their share on the grid from 2018 to 2024 from 8% to 16%. The increase in grid share has been steady over the past two decades.  Before that, it was virtually non-existent. Two decades ago, in 2005, the grid share was less than 1%. Based on recent trends, with continuing efforts, one might project that the grid share for wind and solar is increasing by 9% over 7 years. That means 26% in 2032 and 35% in 2039. That is, of course, less than the Biden administration was hoping for, but still quite impressive.

     The EIA also notes that wind and solar generation are intermittent and that dispatchable generation in the form of coal, natural gas, nuclear, oil, and presumably hydro are at a share of 75% of utility-scale generation for 2025. It was also noted that wind generated more power at 464,000 GWh than solar at 296,000 GWh, although solar capacity saw a larger increase, rising 34% compared to wind’s 3%. However, new solar generation in 2025 was at 26.5 GW, down 22% from 2024, which was at 33.8 GW.

     According to an annual report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), fourth quarter deployments dropped considerably, with expectations that many of those projects will add to 2026 and 2027 numbers:

“SEIA noted that in the first three quarters of 2025, solar installations remained largely the same year over year, “but in the fourth quarter, volumes fell by nearly 40% year-over-year. By the end of 2025, installations totaled just under 35 GW as many utility-scale projects were delayed into 2026 and 2027.”

“As developers shifted their focus towards safe harbor strategies, there was less urgency to bring late-stage projects online by year end,” SEIA said. “This weakened fourth quarter deployment but created a more robust near-term pipeline for 2026 and 2027.”

     SEIA and Wood Mackenzie think that solar capacity will triple over the next decade, a similar growth rate to what has been occurring. More graphic data from the report is given below.

 

    

 

References:

 

Utility-scale solar and wind hit a record 17% of US generation in 2025: EIA: “Combining utility-scale and small-scale solar generation in 2025 increases the share of wind and solar to 19% of total net generation,” said the Energy Information Administration. Diane DiGangi. Utility Dive. March 25, 2026. Utility-scale solar and wind hit a record 17% of US generation in 2025: EIA | Utility Dive

Solar installations fell 22% in 2025: FERC: “As developers shifted their focus towards safe harbor strategies, there was less urgency to bring late-stage projects online by year end,” the Solar Energy Industries Association said. Diana DiGangi. Utility Dive. April 1, 2026. Solar installations fell 22% in 2025: FERC | Utility Dive

Wind and solar generated a record 17% of U.S. electricity in 2025. Energy Information Administration. March 20, 2026. Wind and solar generated a record 17% of U.S. electricity in 2025 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Solar Market Insight Report 2025 Year in Review. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). March 9, 2026. Solar Market Insight Report 2025 Year in Review – SEIA

China’s Reduction in Aerosol Air Pollution Linked to Fewer Aerosol-Fueled Storms in Arctic, Subsequent Lower Loss of Sea Ice, Along with a Reduction in Global Cooling (which is still likely the dominant effect)

     While it is well-known that reducing aerosols from air pollution in the atmosphere leads to a loss of the global cooling effect of aerosols, new research published in Nature’s npj Climate and Atmospheric Science suggests that China’s big push to reduce its air pollution has had other effects that offset the loss of that global cooling effect. In particular, it was observed that there were fewer aerosol-fueled storms initiated in the Arctic, resulting in a reduction in the loss of Arctic sea ice.

     Bjørn Samset, a senior researcher at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research in Norway, told Live Science:

"This pollution temporarily slowed global warming and gave the rest of us a bit more time to adapt to a warmer climate. What is happening now is that we're seeing the full effects of greenhouse-gas-driven warming, which we would sooner or later have to face anyway."   

     According to Live Science, the research suggests that:

“From 2000 to 2014, smog billowing from Chinese smokestacks may have been steering winter storms northward across the North Pacific, funneling more of them into the Arctic and destroying ice in the Bering Sea.”

     The article in Live Science explains much better than I can how this process works:

“To understand how soot and sulfate particles over Shanghai could influence ice off the coast of Alaska, it helps to think about what happens inside a storm. Every mid-latitude cyclone — the swirling, comma-shaped systems that generate much of the Northern Hemisphere's winter weather — runs on a kind of heat engine. Warm, moist air evaporates near the ocean surface, rises and condenses into clouds, releasing heat that fuels the storm's circulation.”

“Aerosols — the tiny particles that make up industrial haze — disrupt this engine in a subtle-but-consequential way. Water vapor normally condenses around a relatively small number of particles, forming large droplets that fall quickly as rain on the storm's southern flank. If the air is full of aerosols, however, each particle becomes a seed for a cloud droplet. The result is a vast number of smaller droplets that don't readily coalesce into raindrops. Rainfall on the storm’s southern flank is suppressed, and moisture travels farther along the storm's conveyor belt toward its northeastern flank, where it releases its heat — in exactly the right place to nudge the whole system poleward.”

     Lead author Dianbin Cao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, and colleagues relied on four decades of observational data and combined it with modeling to show how aerosols released in East Asia affected winter cyclones in the North Pacific.  

“Comparing 14 years of elevated aerosol loading between 2000 and 2014 against 15 lower-aerosol years from the preceding decades, the researchers found that cyclone tracks shifted northward by up to 1.23 degrees by the time the storms dissipated — enough to nearly double the number of cyclones crossing into the Arctic.”

     The study suggests that aerosols can strongly affect these storms and their own effects:

“When these storms arrive in the Bering Sea, their effects can be dramatic. A cyclone's counterclockwise winds shove ice back toward the Chukchi Sea, between Alaska and Russia. Waves break ice floes apart. Southerly gales bring warmer air that can, even in the depths of winter, tip temperatures above freezing, as happened so acutely in 2019.”

     The good news is that since China began addressing its aerosol pollution problem in 2013, the number of aerosols released into the atmosphere has dropped by about 75% over the next decade. This made the air cleaner in China, and the article calls it “one of the most effective environmental interventions in history.” This could lead to fewer storms tracking into the Arctic region.

     Of course, we also know that the reduction of atmospheric aerosols can accelerate global warming since the particles reflect sunlight back into space and have a cooling effect on the atmosphere. Other studies have indicated that this is indeed occurring. A 2025 study led by Samset found that East Asian aerosol reductions have measurably accelerated global warming. Dan Westervelt, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a co-author on Samset’s 2025 study, thinks the warming effect will win out. He told Live Science:

 "Unmasking warming will probably dominate, as it is more persistent and can occur during all seasons, while the storm-track changes are probably more episodic.”

     He also notes that reductions in aerosol particles in the U.S., for instance, took about three decades, and I add that much of that was due to natural gas replacing coal as an energy source due to the shale and fracking revolution. In contrast, China was able to clean up its much greater aerosol production in about a decade, which should lead to bigger measurable, observable effects, as this post explains is indeed happening.

        As noted in the paper’s abstract below, further mitigation of East Asian aerosol particle pollution could lead to fewer storms tracking into the Arctic region and subsequently less loss of sea ice as a result. As the second graphic shows, fewer Arctic storms are strongly correlated with less loss of sea ice.  

 

References:

 

China's huge push to reduce air pollution had an unexpected consequence in the Arctic. Quentin Septer. Live Science. March 31, 2026. China's huge push to reduce air pollution had an unexpected consequence in the Arctic

Anthropogenic aerosols can shape the winter mid-latitude cyclone tracks. Dianbin Cao, Dongze Xu, Yanluan Lin, Yi Deng, Xuelong Chen, Qiang Zhang, Meng Gao & Xu Zhang. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Article number: (2026). March 18, 2026. Anthropogenic aerosols can shape the winter mid-latitude cyclone tracks | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Blue Dragon Energy & Environmental Blog 2.0: Blog Topic Statistics

     With the number of posts in this blog approaching 1000, I thought I would analyze some statistics regarding topics. My own classification scheme may differ from others. Many topics overlap with posts fitting multiple categories, usually around two on average. Some posts fit as many as four or five categories. Some categories are incomplete. The Energy Management and Efficiency category could likely be doubled or tripled since I quickly added it recently, for example. Most categories are complete. I was curious how graphed results would look. Some topics are broader than others. Some can be split up in different ways. My categorization has my own biases. I have worked as an oil & gas exploration and production geologist. Thus, oil & gas is one of the biggest in terms of the number of topics. I was surprised that Climate Science & Policy had so many posts, but it is likely due to it being a broad topic and timely topic. If I had combined Power Grid Markets and Policy and Power Grid Technology, it would have been 74 and the biggest topic. Of course, if I had combined the three Oil & Gas topics, they would have had well over 130. It would be 150, but several overlap. This blog also has linked lists of posts in each topic and is searchable with the search bar. I will likely keep this Excel file updated and perhaps post it periodically, perhaps annually, if I keep posting. 

     The first chart is the number of posts by topic arranged alphabetically, and the second chart is the number of posts by topic from most to least.

Energy Demands of 6G Networks: New Paper Models Synthetic Biology-Based Fuel Cell-Powered Bio-Hybrid Networks as a Sustainable Alternative for Ultra-Dense Small-Cell Base Stations

6G Networks: High-Density Networks Require More Energy and Better Energy Management

      Mobile communication networks are notoriously power-hungry. Future 6G networks will be “a complex ecosystem of densely deployed software and hardware components,” according to a 2023 German whitepaper. This will include the incorporation of AI capabilities. Of specific concern are the energy consumption and energy efficiency of 6G networks.

     Radio access networks (RAN) account for most of the 6G energy requirements, 73% according to the German whitepaper. Power costs account for between 20% and 40% of the operating expenses of network operators. The newer data-heavy networks make lowering energy costs the prime driver of innovation, which was not the case for previous networks. It is simply that higher data consumption means higher energy consumption and higher operational costs. 3G and 4G networks focused more on enhancing user experience through faster speeds and broader coverage. 5G networks began to address energy consumption, but there is much more to be done. Energy efficiency needs to be embedded from the outset.

     According to an article in ICT Networks:

“Despite technological advancements such as improved power amplifiers and faster base station wake-up times, the annual growth in data demand—estimated at around 2.8%—continues to outpace efficiency gains. This imbalance means that even incremental improvements in hardware and software are insufficient to curb overall power usage. For 6G, this reality serves as a wake-up call, pushing standardization bodies like 3GPP and industry leaders to treat energy as a core design constraint.”

     The need for computational power and dense network deployments in more sophisticated modern applications means higher power use is a given. This has created a tension between performance and energy consumption, which needs to be addressed. Autonomous systems and AI processing require ultra-low latency, massive connectivity, and high reliability. There is a need to develop smarter algorithms and hardware optimizations that prioritize efficiency. IOT and smart grids require dense networks that can adapt dynamically, and doing that while maintaining energy efficiency is challenging. Thus, scaling up these 6G networks without much higher energy consumption is a hurdle that must be overcome.

     Emerging solutions include technological innovations across network architecture. The article in ITC Networks gives four strategies: technological innovations, industry and academic collaborations, embedding efficiency from the outset, and reflecting on past efforts to address their energy efficiency failures. Regarding technological innovation, it is noted:

“Strategies such as lean network designs aim to eliminate unnecessary transmissions across time, spatial, and frequency domains, while energy-efficient air interfaces and waveforms are being developed to optimize signal transmission. Additionally, user equipment (UE)-assisted algorithms for power saving, synchronized sleep modes for downlink (DL) and uplink (UL), and dynamic resource allocation are gaining traction. The integration of AI and ML into network operations further enhances efficiency by enabling predictive management of resources, ensuring that energy is used only when and where it is needed.”

     Standardization bodies like 3GPP can play an important role in industry/academic collaborations by setting up frameworks that prioritize efficiency.

“Industry stakeholders focus on practical implementations, such as base station sleep modes and cost-effective infrastructure upgrades, driven by the need to reduce total cost of ownership. Meanwhile, academia explores cutting-edge concepts like novel waveforms and advanced interference management, pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. This synergy ensures a comprehensive approach, embedding energy-conscious principles into every aspect of 6G development.”

     Embedding efficiency from the outset is a firm requirement. However, it may require redesigning some system elements.

     Past efficiency failures involved the inability to predict the level of future data demands. This must be avoided in designing the new networks. Setting up pilot projects and standardization of power-saving protocols will be needed to test 6G networks.

     5G networks incorporated some energy-saving features for both user equipment (UE) and base stations (BSs), but many were added later, after the networks were deployed. 5G energy saving innovations include introducing specific low-power modes during idle times, including idle mode signaling reduction and discontinuous reception (DRX). The other 5G power saving innovations are described below from a Samsung blog article:

“5G introduced both short and long DRX cycles to strike a balance between latency and energy efficiency. Complementing DRX, Discontinuous Transmission (DTX) enables BSs to skip transmissions during periods of low or no traffic, further conserving energy. Additionally, Carrier Aggregation allows for the selective activation or deactivation of secondary carriers, optimizing energy use by ensuring resources are only utilized when necessary. Together, these mechanisms collectively contribute to significant improvements in energy efficiency across 5G networks.”

     Below, they list more power-saving features of later releases of 5G networks.

     Energy and network management for 6G has been deemed “energy performance,” according to an Ericson white paper, and such innovations often require a new generation format.

“Some solutions, such as those related to UE idle-mode functions like system-information broadcast, random-access, and paging can only be changed when a new generation is introduced.”  

“For 6G, we need to ensure that we can benefit, in terms of reduced network energy consumption, from deployment architectures where RAN processing is more centralized.”

     They also note that lean design features have been successful in 5G NR and should be further developed in 6G networks.

“The introduction of lean design in 5G NR, which focuses on minimizing transmissions not related to data transfer, has been a tremendous success enabling large network energy savings due to micro-sleep between transmissions. For 6G, we should continue to build on the lean design success story and do more of what has proven to work well in 5G.”

     As shown below, lean design can be incorporated in the time, space, and frequency domains into new 6G networks.

     They note that the lean design features of 5G NR were very successful and can be further developed in 6G.

 

New Paper Models Synthetic Biology-Based Fuel Cell-Powered Bio-Hybrid Networks as a Sustainable Alternative for Ultra-Dense Small-Cell Base Stations

     A December 2025 paper published in the journal Scientific Reports explores the possibility of synthetic biology-based fuel cell-powered networks as a sustainable alternative for ultra-dense small-cell base stations. As noted in the abstract:

“Simulation results indicate that bio-hybrid systems can achieve reliable energy autonomy, significantly reducing reliance on centralized power grids while simultaneously lowering emissions.”

     Incorporating these biohybrid systems into ultra-dense networks has some security and ethical challenges. These include cyber–physical vulnerabilities and public acceptance. The microbial bioreactors need to be free of tampering concerns.

     AI-driven power balancing is incorporated into these systems. Control and optimization frameworks employ model predictive control, described below:

“Model Predictive Control (MPC) provides an anticipatory mechanism by leveraging system dynamics to optimize inputs such as substrate feeding and storage switching over a finite horizon, making it particularly effective under fluctuating microbial performance and forecasted load conditions. Adaptive neural controllers, including deep recurrent architectures like LSTMs, capture temporal dependencies in bioenergy generation and predict short-term variations, enabling proactive energy balancing. In addition, hybrid rule-based and AI frameworks combine hard-coded safety constraints, such as minimum biofilm health thresholds, with data-driven optimization, ensuring interpretability without sacrificing adaptability.”

     Below are some graphs from the paper that show that the increased energy demands of 6G networks consist of their total transmission and computational needs, which are based on the number of devices.

     As noted in the paper’s conclusions below, these systems are powered by “microbial fuel cells and enzyme-driven energy systems.” However, at present, they only exist as simulations. Field trials and experimental validation will be the next step.

 

 

References:

 

Bio-hybrid 6G networks with synthetic biology-enabled base stations for energy-autonomous telecommunications. Abdulrahman Al Ayidh, Mohammed M. Alammar, Mohamed Abbas, Muneer Parayangat & Abdullah Alharthi. Scientific Reports volume 15, Article number: 43784 (December 15, 2025). Bio-hybrid 6G networks with synthetic biology-enabled base stations for energy-autonomous telecommunications | Scientific Reports

How Will 6G Networks Balance Energy and Innovation? ITC Network. June 6, 2025. ITCnetwork publications

Energy Performance of 6G Radio Access Networks: A once in a decade opportunity. Ericsson. White PaperGFTL-24:001335. November 2024. 6g-energy-performance.pdf

Energy Saving for 6G Network: Part I. July 8, 2025. Hyoungju Ji, Younbum Kim, Hongbo Si, and Aris Papasakellariou. Samsung. Blog. BLOG | Samsung Research

Sustainability of 6G: Ways to Reduce Energy Consumption. Hecker, Artur, Bernardos, Carlos Jesus Gavras, Anastasius Schörner, Karsten Bou Rouphael, Rony AL-Naday, Mays, Lombardo, Chiara, Ghoraishi, Mir. Zenodo. 6G Infrastructure Association. October 24, 2024. Sustainability of 6G: Ways to Reduce Energy Consumption

6G Energy Efficiency and Sustainability. Fraunhoffer IIS. 6G Platform Germany. January 2023. Whitepaper6GSustainability.pdf

From Efficiency to Sustainability: Exploring the Potential of 6G for a Greener Future. Rohit Kumar, Saurav Kumar Gupta, Hwang-Cheng Wang, C. Shyamala Kumari, and Sai Srinivas Vara Prasad Korlam. Sustainability. 2023, 15(23), 16387. November 27, 2023. From Efficiency to Sustainability: Exploring the Potential of 6G for a Greener Future | MDPI