There have been long waiting times for gas turbines for a few years now. Just a few years ago, back around 2018, the demand for gas turbines was low as new gas plants were not being built, and it was thought that not many more would be built. However, as demand began to build for renewables back-up, electrification, and later for new AI data center buildout, the demand suddenly skyrocketed, and the industry was not ready for it. This led to the backlog that remains today and is expected to continue as more data center plans are announced. It is suspected that not all announced data centers will be built, but enough will likely be built to keep the delay going for longer than originally anticipated. It may take a few more years for the industry to catch up to normal wait times. Current wait times of 4-7 years are common now, and some delays are expected for new orders up to 2030.
Gas turbines will be needed
far into the future, not only for natural gas, but for other fuels as well,
particularly low-carbon fuels, including hydrogen, ammonia, RNG, and even
renewable diesel. Small gas turbines will also be used in Brayton (Allam) Cycle
gas plants, utilizing CO2 to spin them. Currently, the U.S. has about 7000 gas
turbines in operation. These must be maintained, and the maintenance
requirements differ depending on how the turbines are used, typically, whether
they are used for baseload power or for peaking. According to Aad den Elzen,
the vice president of power generation and strategic growth at Solar Turbines,
a Caterpillar Company:
“The lead times even for small turbines are increasing,”
den Elzen mentioned. “Basically, we are all depending on the same supply chain.
The same suppliers are pushed for more by the power generation and the
aerospace industries, but all of us are spending a lot of time and energy to
understand the full supply chain until every last bottleneck is opened.”
In January 2025, GE Vernova, a major U.S. gas turbine manufacturer, announced that it would invest $600 million in new manufacturing facilities for gas turbines. They expect demand to remain high for the foreseeable future. Burning hydrogen to spin gas turbines is still in the beginning stages and is expected to increase in the next decade and beyond. Hydrogen co-firing and blending projects continue to be developed. Turbines are being developed capable of burning 100% hydrogen, but there is currently not enough hydrogen supply to support many of those. There are other reasons as well why blending is more likely. Carbon capture can be enhanced as well by altering gas turbines, as den Elzin notes. His company has “built and operated an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system on one of its gas turbines and demonstrated steady operation, increasing CO2 waste from 3% to 6-7%, which would make carbon capture more effective and affordable.”
GE
Vernova has also done some work outfitting their turbines for decarbonization
via hydrogen, as reported by Power Technology:
“GE Vernova performed full-scale validation of its 100%
hydrogen-fueled DLN Combustor last year, with emissions below 25ppm NOx. The
innovation is based on the company’s micro-mixer technology designs tweaked and
retweaked over 20+ years. The project’s genesis came back in 2005 via a
collaboration with the Department of Energy- GE Vernova expects to bring a
commercial offering to market as early as 2026.”
“This is another step toward solving the hydrogen
challenge,” Codron declared. “This is a technology we’re going to position as a
potential solution in the energy transition.”
GE Vernova is providing the turbine
technology for the Net Zero Teesside Power
(NZT Power) project in the United Kingdom, which is expected to be the world’s
first gas-fired power station with carbon capture and storage. The project will
include a heat recovery steam generator and an EGR system that will recycle
CO2-rich flue gas back into the turbine inlet to increase CO2 recovery and
reduce solvent use.
Below are GE Vernova's offerings of different-sized simple-cycle gas combustion turbines.
Gas turbines continue to make
efficiency improvements. According to engineering company Prismecs:
“Advanced blade designs and sophisticated cooling
techniques also reduce operational inefficiencies, contributing to lower fuel
consumption, higher output, and improved performance. These innovations in
efficiency are making gas turbines more cost-effective and sustainable,
enabling them to meet the evolving energy demands of industrial applications.”
Gas turbine design
improvements are also leading to more mitigation of NOx and other pollutants:
“By incorporating cutting-edge combustion technologies,
such as low-emission combustion chambers and catalytic converters, modern gas
turbines significantly reduce harmful NOx and CO2 emissions, making them much
cleaner and more environmentally friendly.”
Modern gas turbines are
digitalized, equipped with advanced sensors, data analytics, and machine
learning algorithms, which enable real-time monitoring, supporting turbine
health and performance optimization. Digital twinning is often used for testing
and analysis. Micro gas turbines are commonly used in Combined Heat & Power
(CHP) deployments, which means they are deployable in remote locations and for
behind-the-meter applications such as small data centers. They can also be used
for emergency power. Aero-derivative gas turbines provide propulsion for
aircraft. They, too, can be made more efficient with incremental improvements.
GE Vernov also notes the use of its gas turbines for gas-to-power operations
that capture flare gas from oil wells and convert it to power. These ops make
local power or power Bitcoin mining.
Siemens Energy lists three
ways that gas turbines support decarbonization: 1) replacing coal and oil
generation units, 2) providing rotating masses to maintain grid inertia,
especially where inverter-based resources are abundant, and 3) direct
decarbonization via CCS and/or hydrogen.
Simple cycle combustion
turbine systems can be designed differently to better optimize their power
usage and to support their own O&M needs. GE Vernova touts its Axial Fuel
Staging technology, described below, as a means to increase flexibility, lower
emissions, and reduce maintenance and fuel costs. They also offer axial fuel
staging as an upgrade to some of their turbine models.
Assuming a turbine is
acquired, installation time for gas turbine plants is fast. Peaking plants can
ramp power up and down quickly as needed, but this can create special O&M
needs. Steve Hiner of the Parker Filtration Group writes about these O&M
challenges for Gas Processing and LNG:
“One of the most profound changes affecting gas turbine
operation has been the diminishing requirement for base load capacity. In
previous decades, gas turbines would have typically operated at full power for
~8,000 hr or more per year and were only shut down for periodic servicing. The
rapid changes of the last decade have left this desirable scenario far in the
distant past.”
“Renewables now get priority dispatch, leaving gas
turbines to pick up the slack only when there is insufficient wind and solar to
meet demand. As so-called peaking units, most of these machines switch on and
off multiple times per day and typically ramp up and down during periods of
operation. This switch for gas turbines typically sees machines operate for
hundreds of hours a year rather than thousands and has thrown the conventional
economic and business cases for gas turbines into disarray. So, while gas
turbines are certainly here to stay and will form a significant part of the
energy mix even once the clean energy transition has been completed, new
operating models place far greater emphasis on operational costs (OPEX) than
ever before as owners look to balance the books on far fewer operating hours.”
The company Hiner works for,
the Parker Filtration Group, provides air inlet filtration units for gas
turbines. Hiner notes that filter lifespans differ based on usage levels. While
baseload power gas turbines lead to pressure loss due to dust clogging through
frequent operating times. Instead, he says:
“…filter elements may instead last many years before
plugging significantly increases their pressure drop. Under these conditions,
filter longevity may be determined by other factors and could potentially
become a significant OPEX in today’s operating regimes.”
As a result of lower operating times, filter lifespans have increased. However, that can lead to other filter issues. When filter elements are exposed to corrosion agents such as saltwater, the formation of rust is accelerated. In response to this threat, the author’s company uses G90 galvanized steel instead of G60. The frames are also powder-coated to protect against corrosion.
Hiner also points out similar
design improvements that can increase the longevity of other parts of the gas
turbine system when they are used in a low capacity factor peaking
mode.
“Additionally, these considerations extend beyond the
primary filtration system—each system usually contains other filters and
additional components such as evaporative coolers that are deployed in many gas
turbines. Materials choices such as 316 stainless-steel frames, plastic framing
for pre-filters and robust cooling media are all built into a system that
supports the new reality of gas turbine operations.”
Gas turbines are here to stay
and will likely continue to evolve to attain better efficiency and improved
longevity of components.
References:
The
future of gas turbines in the green revolution. Steve Hiner. Gas Processing
& LNG. June 30, 2025. The future of gas turbines in the
green revolution | Gas Processing & LNG
How do
gas turbines fit into the clean energy transition? Paul Gerke. Power
Engineering. February 12, 2025. How do gas turbines fit into the
clean energy transition?
What
is the Future of Gas Turbines in Innovation and Prospects? Prismecs. February
20, 2024. What is the Future of Gas Turbines in
Innovation and Prospects?
Flexible
gas turbine fuel offerings. GE Vernova. Flexible Fuel Offerings | GE Vernova
Gas-fired
power plants fuel the energy transition. Gas-fired power plants can deliver a
fast path to low-carbon energy systems today – plus, they can be fully
decarbonized. Siemens Energy. Natural
Gas-Fired Power Plants I Energy Transition
Flexibility
blog: Why is gas plant flexibility so important now and in the future? Bob
Bellis. September 27, 2023. GE Vernova. Why
Gas Plant Flexibility Is Important | GE Vernova
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