Heavy Duty Electrification: Benefits, Risks, Strategies, Logistics, and Forecasts

     Electrification of light-duty vehicles has been proceeding faster than for heavy-duty vehicles and equipment, but heavy-duty electrification is proceeding as well. It takes more power for heavy-duty electrification, which means bigger and heavier batteries that take up more space.

 

Short-Haul and Long-Haul Deliveries

     The shortest-haul trucks and equipment are those used exclusively in urban environments, construction zones, and industrial and commercial zones for things like basic delivery. As EVs, these are called Class 3 electric trucks. Urban delivery vehicles, city utility vehicles, refrigerated food and medicine trucks, heavy-duty towing vehicles, some public transit vehicles, and some specialized service vehicles like ambulances, waste-management vehicles, mobile command centers, and mobile labs can all be Class 3 electric trucks. According to Ever-Growing USA, the environmental benefits of these electric trucks are as follows:

Environmental Benefits

·        They are environmentally friendly and do not produce harmful gases like diesel trucks.

·       Electric trucks do not pollute the surroundings of residential areas.

·        They do not emit carbon, contributing towards climate change control.

·        Electric trucks operate quietly and do not cause noise pollution.

·        Communities do not bother when electric trucks work or pass nearby.

·        Electric trucks can operate in areas where diesel vehicles are not allowed.

·        The air quality improves with the increasing use of electric vehicles and trucks.

 

     The classification of trucks is differentiated mainly by weight, and examples of each type are shown below.

 

     Quiet operation, especially pollutant emissions-free operation, offers real benefits in urban environments, especially in places like Southern California cities that are subject to weather inversions that optimize smog formation from diesel emissions. Cost benefits include less maintenance requirements, reliability, and lower operations costs since electricity is cheaper than fuel. Performance benefits include instant torque and smooth acceleration. In some urban areas diesel trucks are not permitted to operate at night mainly due to noise.

     The DOE’s National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) in September 2021 noted that the total cost of ownership could be less for heavy-duty and medium-duty EVs vs. ICE equivalents. They noted that heavy-duty trucks were responsible for a large percentage of fuel use:

“Altogether, medium- and heavy-duty trucks account for 26% of national fuel use—despite making up just 4% of the total vehicle population.”

Their analysis explored Class 8 tractors and Class 4 parcel delivery trucks. 

     An August 2024 paper in Nature Energy explored the challenges and opportunities of truck electrification as revealed via big data analysis of Chinese electric trucks fed by the Chinese power grid. Below is the abstract:

Abstract

The electrification of trucks is a major challenge in achieving zero-emission transportation. Here we gathered year-long records from 61,598 electric trucks in China. Current electric trucks were found to be significantly underutilized compared with their diesel counterparts. Twenty-three per cent of electric delivery trucks and 30% of semi-trailers could achieve one-on-one replacement with diesel counterparts, while on average 3.8 electric delivery trucks and 3.6 electric semi-trailers are required to match the transportation demand that is served by one diesel truck separately. For diesel trucks that are capable of one-on-one replacement, electric trucks have 15–54% and 1–49% reductions in cost and life-cycle CO2 emissions, respectively. Enhancements in usage patterns, vehicle technologies and charging infrastructure can improve electrification feasibility, yielding cost and decarbonization benefits. Increased battery energy densities with optimized usage can make one-on-one electrification feasible for more than 85% of diesel semi-trailers. In addition, with cleaner electricity, most Chinese electric trucks in 2030 will have lower expected life-cycle CO2 emissions than diesel trucks.

 

Forecasts

     The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts EV growth and share of vehicles. Below are the forecasts for India, Europe, China, Japan, the U.S. by 2035, and the rest of the world by 2030. I find it interesting that the IEA expects the U.S. to lead in electric truck growth, at least judging by share of EVs as these graphs predict based on both stated and accelerated policy scenarios. I also find it hard to believe that by 2035 48% of trucks will be electric as in the stated policies scenario and 71% of trucks will be electric in the accelerated policies scenario. That is a decade away and we are nowhere near that. I concede that it is possible that we will hit the lower end. However, if EV technologies achieve some breakthroughs that can be scaled up quickly, such growth can happen.  

     IEA notes that China will achieve >50% of vehicles produced being electric in the next few years. The U.K. has a goal of 80% Zero-Emissions EVs by 2030 from 22% in 2024. That’s pretty bold so we will see. Predictions for the E.U. are a little more realistic at 60% by 2030 and 85% by 2035.

     Revised E.U. standards for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) require that “100% of city bus sales to be zero-emission from 2035, and other HDVs to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 45% in 2030, 65% in 2035 and 90% from 2040, compared to 2019 levels.”

     The IEA cites the latest CAFÉ fuel standards  for 2024-2026 vehicles in the U.S. as support for their U.S. forecasts:

“The United States is also a signatory of the Global MOU, which targets 30% zero-emission M/HDV sales shares by 2030 (on aggregate, across bus and truck sales) and 100% by 2040. In the APS, the US electric bus sales share reaches around 75% in 2035 and the electric truck sales share reaches almost 70% in 2035.”

 

Construction, Industrial, Mining, Agricultural and other Non-Highway Heavy Duty-Equipment

     Henrik Lange of Siemens writes that smaller heavy-duty equipment machines such as mini-excavators and compact loaders. He notes that heavy equipment electrification can take several different forms including diesel-electric hybrids, using turbines or engines to generate on-site electric power, tethered cable equipment attached to the grid, fuel cells, or hydrogen combustion. One company plans to power mining and processing ops with underground nuclear reactors. He writes:

“All those innovations enable a totally new scope of capabilities, including use cases that require zero emissions and/or low noise. That is obviously great. But on the flipside, they add complexity. OEMs will have to make additional investments in R&D, transform their current offering, and will most likely end up with a larger and more diverse product portfolio. That creates challenges on all levels of the organization, and in all aspects of product engineering. And this complexity will only keep growing, as electrification goes hand in hand with other industry trends like connectivity and autonomous operation, which translate into similar organizational and technical challenges.”

Lange emphasizes the importance of turning complexity into competitive advantage via better R&D. He also mentions the two most important construction machinery trade shows, Bauma and Conexpo, as where to explore the new machines.

      Enrique Busquets, director of Product Area Mobile Electronics and Electrification at Bosch Rexroth, wrote an article for SAE Media about the drivers of off-highway electrification given below.

Total cost of ownership: As electrification expands, battery-electric and diesel-electric drivetrains are more competitive. Combined with the widening availability of electric charging stations and the impact of fossil-fuel cost inflation, electrified heavy-duty machines are becoming more feasible.

Serviceability: Electric motors and drivetrains are inherently simpler machines compared to combustion-engine systems. Their reliability and ability to operate with longer duty cycles with less maintenance and repair make them much more productive and cost-effective to use, especially since they can deliver the same power and performance in demanding work environments such as construction sites and agricultural fields.

Controllability: An electric motor offers instantaneous torque control, which may result in fine-tuned control of the drivetrain with a superior level of productivity, compared to combustion engine and hydraulic drivetrains. Electric system control algorithms give operators the ability to manage battery life through proper power distribution in a simpler manner. In addition, controllability of hydraulic-driven equipment implements also can be fine-tuned with variable-speed electric motors driving the hydraulic pumps.

Environmental/regulatory concerns: In many major markets, evolving emissions and air-quality regulations continue to affect construction OEMs. In certain urban environments, noise and emissions regulations have led to OEMs launching all-electric, small skid loaders, wheel loaders and other equipment capable of working in restricted sites.

He notes new successful OEM designs in the 700-volt segment, with improvements in batteries, motors, inverters, gear units and advanced software platforms for traction and implement control. He gives the example of a combine harvester working in a rural location where a hybrid part electric and part hydraulic machine works best due to the extra charging required that would be unavailable in a remote location for a fully electric machine. In the hybrid, electro-mechanical devices are used for lower-power functions such as steering control. Fully swappable battery packs are also an emerging solution. He notes that a modular, application-driven approach is a good strategy that may include:

Conventional combustion engines: The standard diesel engine still delivers optimum performance in applications where the machines operate constantly (as in remote locations) and make heavy demands on travel-distance and implements, such as mulching equipment.

Diesel-electric: In this configuration, the drivetrain motors and hydraulics power are provided by a combination of a combustion engine and electrics drawing from batteries. This configuration is similar to hybrid passenger cars and trucks. For some construction vehicles, this can be a plug-in vehicle; the battery can be charged from a fixed utility line, so the diesel engine doesn’t have to run to power the drivetrain or implements. Or the engine can be operated in a load-leveling mode where the unused engine power is used to charge the batteries in the system.

Full electric: These are battery-powered machines with the capacity to support extended periods of workload and can recharge between shifts or use replaceable batteries if a charging infrastructure is not available.

New platforms for motor-generators and inverters in the 700-volt industry sector and new high-performance gearboxes offer higher performance and efficiency. As noted, making optimum use of electric and hydraulic components is a goal of hybridization. He mentions next-generation hydraulic pumps “designed to couple with electric drives, operate optimally with the natural frequencies of electric motors and respond more efficiently to drives with a much greater range of speeds, rather than the low idle and high idle of a combustion engine.” Improvements in electronic controls and software-based power management are enabling performance and efficiency improvements. A new version of electronic load sensing (eLS) “technology combines electric-powered hydraulic pumps with pre-compensated valve platforms, such as the RM mobile control valve, to more reliably ensure that the required hydraulic power is available and integrates advanced recuperation to maximize machine efficiency.” He sums it up below.

“The newest generation of 700-volt electric motors and inverters, along with a new generation of gearboxes, hydraulic components and controls, is rapidly advancing the pace and potential applications for diesel-electric and battery-electric heavy-duty mobile machines. It’s also clear that hydraulics has a vital role in these machines, due to the reliability and power density that only hydraulics can supply.”

     Excavators, wheel loaders, mining trucks, and forklifts have diesel-electric or battery-electric versions with comparable performance to diesel models. Volvo released an excavator in 2017 that can run for 8 hours before requiring recharging. Caterpillar, Bobcat, Doosan, Hyundai CE and JCB also offer electric excavators and demand continues to grow. Wheel loaders come in different sizes and are utilized on a variety of construction sites. The Schäffer 24E, advertised as the world’s first lithium-ion electric wheel loader, is powered by two lithium-ion batteries and has two hydraulic motors. It is also lightweight, quiet, and compact. Dump trucks and mining trucks are being electrified as well. According to an article by BigRentz:

“The world’s largest electric vehicle is a 45-ton mining truck designed by the German manufacturer Kuhn Schweiz. This all-electric truck, officially named the Elektro Dumper, is used to transport marlstone, and it never needs to be recharged thanks to its regenerative braking system. When the truck descends a hill, the braking system recaptures energy created by the downhill movement and stores it in the truck’s 600 kW per hour battery pack.”

These mining truck models still face high costs. There are many models of all-electric forklifts that are typically close to grid power and have small power needs compared to larger equipment. One important benefit of electric construction machinery is lower project costs. This is due to lower fuel costs, lower maintenance costs, less downtime, and lower engine run time. The reason for lower engine run time is that diesel engines must idle while electric motors can just shut off and start right back up.

 

Effects of Heavy-Duty Electrification on the Grid

     The result of not needing to idle makes electric vehicles in a city much better for the environment since they do not burn energy while idling. A 2021 study in Nature Energy modeled the effects of heavy-duty truck charging and found that short-haul fleets are more easily electrified and integrated with charging infrastructure. They also concluded that most grids will be able to handle heavy-duty truck charging without upgrades. The paper abstract below explains the issues:

Abstract

Major technological advancements and recent policy support are improving the outlook for heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States. In particular, short-haul operations (≤200 miles (≤322 km)) are prevalent and early candidates for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) given their short, predictable routes and return-to-base applications, which allows vehicles to recharge when off shift at their depots. Although previous studies investigated the impacts of added electrical loads on distribution systems, which included light-duty EVs, the implications for heavy-duty EV charging are underexplored. Here we summarize the causes, costs and lead times of distribution system upgrades anticipated for depot charging. We also developed synthetic depot charging load profiles for heavy-duty trucks from real-world operating schedules, and found that charging requirements are met at common light-duty EV charging rates (≤100 kW per vehicle). Finally, we applied depot charging load profiles to 36 distribution real-world substations, which showed that most can accommodate high levels of heavy-duty EV charging without upgrades.

The Texas A&M research team partnered with ElectroTempo, a startup spun out of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute and founded by Dr. Ann Xu. ElectroTempo works with utility companies to do state-of-the-art EV modeling. They can model grid impact for companies planning to electrify significant amounts of equipment power. They point out that electrifying heavy-duty vehicles and equipment needs modeling since it can have significant impacts on the grid. Big loads on the grid need to be carefully managed to avoid overloads.

 

Charging and Charging Infrastructure

     Charging and charging infrastructure are very important for designing and optimizing electrification. Grid modeling is important here as well. The California Heavy-Duty Fleet Electrification Summary Report from March 2021gives some data for managed and unmanaged charging for their project areas as given in the tables below. The third table analyzes costs.

 

References:

 

Charging forward: The impact of electrifying heavy-duty vehicles on the grid. Katie Satterlee. TechXplore. January 19, 2025. Charging forward: The impact of electrifying heavy-duty vehicles on the grid

Heavy-duty truck electrification and the impacts of depot charging on electricity distribution systems. Brennan Borlaug, Matteo Muratori, Madeline Gilleran, David Woody, William Muston, Thomas Canada, Andrew Ingram, Hal Gresham & Charlie McQueen. Nature Energy volume 6, pages673–682 (June 21, 2021). Heavy-duty truck electrification and the impacts of depot charging on electricity distribution systems | Nature Energy

Challenges and opportunities in truck electrification revealed by big operational data. Pei Zhao, Shaojun Zhang, Paolo Santi, Dingsong Cui, Fang Wang, Peng Liu, Zhaosheng Zhang, Jin Liu, Zhenpo Wang, Carlo Ratti & Ye Wu. Nature Energy volume 9, pages1427–1437 (August 12, 2024). Challenges and opportunities in truck electrification revealed by big operational data | Nature Energy

Breakthrough Analysis Finds Electrified Heavy-Duty Vehicle Powertrains Could Provide Lower Total Cost of Ownership. National Reneable Energy Lab. September 21, 2021. Breakthrough Analysis Finds Electrified Heavy-Duty Vehicle Powertrains Could Provide Lower Total Cost of Ownership | News | NREL

Electric mobile machines won’t abandon hydraulics. 2022-06-02. Enrique Busquets. SAE International. Off highway electrification optimizes hydraulic technology

Trends in electric heavy-duty vehicles. International Energy Agency. Global EV Outlook 2022. Trends in electric heavy-duty vehicles – Global EV Outlook 2022 – Analysis - IEA

Outlook for electric mobility. Global EV Outlook 2024. International Energy Agency. Outlook for electric mobility – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA

Heavy equipment electrification: Re-inventing the industry. Hendrik Lange. Siemens. March 8, 2024. Heavy equipment electrification: Re-inventing the industry - Heavy Equipment

Electric Construction Equipment: The Future of Heavy Machinery. BigRentz on February 22, 2024. Electric Construction Equipment: The Future of Heavy Machinery | BigRentz

California Heavy-Duty Fleet Electrification Summary Report. March 2021. Environmental Defense Fund. EDF-GNA-Final-March-2021.pdf

No-fumes deliveries: Can electric trucks help clean up haulage? Tag24 News. January 17, 2024. No-fumes deliveries: Can electric trucks help clean up haulage?

How Electric Trucks Are Revolutionizing Class 3 Trucking. Julian James. Ever-Growing USA. January 8, 2024. How Electric Trucks Are Revolutionizing Class 3 Trucking

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Total Cost of Ownership for Class 8 Tractors and Class 4 Parcel Delivery Trucks. Chad Hunter, Michael Penev, Evan Reznicek, Jason Lustbader, Alicia Birky, and Chen Zhang. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. September 2021. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of the Total Cost of Ownership for Class 8 Tractors and Class 4 Parcel Delivery Trucks