There seem to be two competing narratives for the build-up to the tragic Maui wildfires and the failure to stop them. One is that heat and drought caused by climate change were just too much to overcome. The other is that Hawaii’s emergency management services, utilities, and governments were underprepared, underfunded, and slow to provide resilience and fire prevention measures.
With the heat,
the drought, and possibly the hurricane, one can surmise that climate change
was a contributing factor, but very likely not a primary factor in the fires. On
the other hand, there is absolutely no doubt that the proliferation of flammable
non-native grasses and shrubs known to potentially accelerate fires was a major
factor.
While left-wing
outlets emphasize the climate change influences on the tragedy, right-wing
media outlets are having a field day emphasizing the other, much stronger narrative.
Progressives are already complaining about “disaster capitalism” all the while proliferating
their own “disaster anti-capitalism.” All this is frustrating to moderates,
particularly people among the moderate left. The simple fact is that even if the
fires were caused by climate change only (which they obviously were not), the
way to prevent them is not by increasing energy transition funding, which would
take decades to implement and many more decades to start having an effect on
wildfire proliferation. The way to prevent them is to significantly increase
funding and work as soon as possible specifically for wildfire prevention. Major
funding has been in the works in Maui since 2022 but it obviously did not happen
quickly enough.
The source of
the fire is currently being investigated with investigators looking into downed
power lines and possibly electrical equipment near a substation as a possible
ignition source. People have complained that the electric company should have
turned off power to vulnerable areas, especially with the high winds likely to
knock down power lines.
It is fairly
certain that climate change does indeed make fires more likely, possibly bigger
ones. Fires have definitely gotten bigger in the U.S. The trendline quite clearly
shows that the total annual acreage burned by wildfires has roughly tripled from
1985 through 2022. However, the trend on the number of wildfires in the U.S. actually
shows that there are generally fewer fires since 1985. The trendline shows a
20% drop in fires from 1985 through 2022. Fires have not only gotten bigger
they also have been more destructive, causing more deaths and property damage.
This is partly due to more building in fire-prone areas. It is also partly due
to inadequate fire prevention. The proliferation of fire-prone non-native
grasses and shrubs is partially responsible for the bigger fires. This has been
the case in California and Hawaii in particular. Climate change is also partially
responsible for bigger fires due to higher temperatures and more and longer
droughts. Climate change is probably more directly responsible for longer fire
seasons in some areas. A certain percentage of that climate change is
anthropogenic climate change from fossil fuel emissions, agricultural emissions,
and net deforestation. Some of the climate change is also probably natural
climate change.
Clearly, more
resources need to be put into fire prevention in fire-prone areas. That is the
right prescription for the malady of wildfires. Addressing climate change by restricting
fossil fuels and mandating renewable energy won’t affect wildfire proliferation
for decades, likely many decades, whatever the degree of influence climate
change has on wildfires. Clearly, the priority for funding and action needs to
be on fire prevention. However, when we look at funding levels it is obvious that
fire prevention funding and action is inadequate, especially in known vulnerable
areas such as Maui. Instead, Hawaii has underfunded fire prevention and has
been increasing investment in renewables. Here is another concern that just occurred
to me. It is well-known that higher penetration of intermittent wind and solar
on power grids will require a massive increase in power transmission line
buildouts, with some estimates that 100% renewables scenarios will require a
tripling of the size of the U.S. transmission system. That means many more
power lines and since downed power lines are considered a major ignition source
for wildfires, does that mean more wildfires as well? It’s something to think
about, perhaps. Another thing that should perhaps be mentioned is that since wildfires are an enormous source of both air pollution (dangerous particulate pollution) and CO2 emissions, effective fire prevention can directly reduce both of these things deemed harms to society. This is yet another reason fire prevention should be prioritized.
Hawaii’s Isolation and Dependence on the Most
Emissions-Intense Fossil Fuels for Electricity
In my 2021
book, Sensible Decarbonization, I covered Hawaii’s unsustainable high-carbon
energy mix and what they should do about it. I argued that they should have
moved to LNG years ago and still should. Here is what I wrote about Hawaii:
“Hawaii has the highest electricity prices in the US,
partly due to its island isolation. Even though it has a high degree of solar
generation (over 11%) and wind (about 6%), over 61% comes from petroleum and
over 12% from coal. Coal and petroleum make up over 74% of generation (through
2017). One might ask why there is no natural gas via LNG providing power in Hawaii.
Hawaii has the highest cost of living among all US states for a variety of
reasons, one being its isolation. Another is its energy prices. Hawaii has the
lowest natural gas use of all US states.”
“Hawaii Gas
had explored the possibility of importing LNG from 2012, producing a report
recommending it in 2016 to help with high energy costs as well as a “bridge” to
plans for zero net carbon by 2045. Hawaii was the first state to make such a
declaration. Environmentalists opposed LNG, falsely claiming that life cycle
greenhouse gas emissions were worse than coal, citing methane emissions. Plans
for an LNG terminal were canceled in 2016. Thus, by 2020 natural gas makes up
0% of Hawaii’s electricity. Coal makes up 13%, petroleum makes up 66%, and
renewables make up 16%. Now coal and oil make up nearly 80% of Hawaii’s
electricity compared to 74% in 2017. Hawaii has the highest electricity prices
in the US. Obviously, they are seeing LNG development as a stranded asset issue
but if they would have built the terminal in 2016 and a combined cycle natural
gas plant or two, their citizens would likely be paying much less for
electricity today, their air would be cleaner, and their carbon emissions would
have dropped considerably.”
“In some
ways, Hawaii is a test case. Hawaii has a great solar resource which makes it
more economical. The high electricity prices make solar and wind more competitive
with oil, but they have yet to tackle grid integration costs which would likely
make electricity costs rise even further as more renewables penetrate Hawaii’s
power grid. Hawaii had the highest net carbon intensity gain from 2013-2018 and
was one of only three states, with New Jersey and Vermont, to have carbon
intensity gains. Of course, Hawaii has a small population, about 1.4 million
people, so it is a small piece of the puzzle, smaller than the seven or eight
most populated US cities.
“Recently,
Maui joined a list of cities suing Big Oil for climate change effects, in this
case sea level rise. Of course, we know that sea level had been rising before Industrial Age CO2. It may be accelerating now due to anthropogenic climate
change, but it is difficult to measure the contribution. Maui has also seen an
increase in heat waves and wildfires which were noted in the suit. Such suits
are basically frivolous. And ironically Hawaii continues to burn oil and coal
rather than cleaner natural gas to make 80% of their electricity. It is another
case of suing the hand that powers you.”
Since then,
Hawaii’s energy mix has changed by a few percentage points. The latest data
from 2021 shows oil and coal at 77.2% of electricity, but it is still much higher
than it was in 2017. Solar and wind have actually dropped in percentage of the
electricity mix. The idea of a state with one of the highest electricity carbon
emissions intensities being the first to make an aggressive net zero commitment
is rather ‘head-scratching’ and shows a dangerous disconnect between aspiration
and reality. Ultimately, though, Hawaii’s energy mix has little to do with fire
proliferation except perhaps with the allocation of funds toward wildfire
prevention being possibly diverted to green energy initiatives. That is the
prioritization argument for allocation to adaptation to extreme weather events,
whether or not influenced by climate change, over allocation for green energy
initiatives.
Hawaiian Electric’s Lack of Preparation and Over-Emphasis
on Anthropogenic Climate Change
Right-wing
outlet the Washington Examiner asserted from a report in Wall Street Journal
that “… Hawaiian Electric knew for years that the combination of unsecured
power lines and invasive dry brush was causing a huge spike in wildfires, but
instead of investing resources in securing power lines and clearing brush, the
company spent millions trying to meet Democratic Party-created renewable energy
mandates instead.” It was known in 2019 that Maui faced a growing wildfire risk, with
more fires occurring each year. One reason is certainly the proliferation of dry
fire-prone non-native invasive grasses and shrubs: “After the 2019
wildfire season, Hawaiian Electric even commissioned a report, which concluded
that the utility should do far more to prevent its power lines from setting
invasive grasses on fire. Since that report less than $245,000 was spent on
wildfire projects.”
Apparently, on the crazy end
of the spectrum, conspiracy theorists have been asserting that lasers or directed
energy weapons were used to start the Maui fires, with one person who studies
climate disinformation saying that those crazy assertions were aimed at
discrediting climate science. In the past conspiracy theorists have blamed such
weapons as well as Black Lives Matter activists and arsonists for fires. There
is very good evidence, however, that arsonists have and do start wildfires,
with many convictions, so that is not so crazy. Indeed, most wildfires are
ignited by human activity including unextinguished campfires, discarded cigarettes,
illegal or ill-advised burning, arson, and downed power lines and other
electrical equipment. One big destructive fire was determined to be started by
a lawn mower hitting a rock which threw a spark to start the fire. Of natural
causes of wildfires, lightning strikes are the most common, and while they may
be slightly more common due to climate change, that influence is likely to be
negligible.
The Wall Street Journal pointed
out a 2014 study by Hawaiian fire researchers that concluded Lahaina on Maui
was at extremely high risk for fires due to parched grasslands, steep terrain,
and frequent winds. In 2020 passing of Hurricane Lane remnants similar to the 2023
passing of Hurricane Dora remnants fanned the flames of fires, so that risk was well
known as well. Some improvements were made such as thinning brush and educating
landowners about the risks. However, others, like ramping up emergency-response
capabilities have lagged due to funding inadequacies and competing priorities. After
studying power line vulnerabilities with drones, Hawaiian Electric submitted a
request for $189.7 million in 2022 for power grid maintenance, but that request
was still being processed when the August 2023 fires raged.
The area that burned is a historically
important center for indigenous Hawaiians and pledges have been made to allow
these groups to have great influence over rebuilding. While few would argue
with that, I would note that much like indigenous Native Americans on the
mainland, Native indigenous Hawaiians have been unduly influenced by Progressive
pundits calling for Green New Deals and exhibiting anti-fossil fuel rhetoric. This
is echoed by all the politicians on the political left predominantly blaming
climate change for the fires. Governor Jay Inslee of Washington and California’s
Gavin Newsome have long referred to wildfires as “climate fires.” This is not
an accurate assessment. Virtually every news story about wildfires will mention
climate change many times with perhaps a passing reference to the more pressing
concerns and actually fixable nature of the other causes. Hawaii’s governor even
called it a fire hurricane, an unprecedented new form of climate change demon.
Also a few days ago, climate scientist and activist James Hansen came out with
a declaration that basically said: “I told you so.” Progressives are using the Maui fires to tell Biden to declare a climate emergency. These kinds of reactions
to the tragedy are ineffective in actually solving the problem and are basically
inappropriate politicization. In contrast, the right-wing Daily Caller’s Kristen
Walker reports: “With only 15 inches of annual rainfall, compared to the
eastern side’s 300, Lahaina’s surrounding grassland vegetation is primed each
summer to burn rapidly due to the lack of moisture.” She also had a comment
from a climatologist: “Natural climate variability in Hawaii is very
large and picking out the human-induced climate change signs is really
difficult,” Abby Frazier, a climatologist at Clark University in Massachusetts,
says. “The main factor driving the fires involved the invasive grasses that
cover huge parts of Hawaii, which are extremely flammable.”
Another counter-intuitive
idea (there seem to be quite a few around fires) is that wet seasons on Maui
that have more moisture actually feed fires in dry seasons. This is because
more of these non-native grasses will grow and proliferate during wet seasons,
setting up higher fuel stores when they dry out in the summer. Walker reports
again: “According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, wildfires actually have the “lowest confidence” among natural
disasters that researchers attribute to climate change.” The point of all
this is that it is a self-centered politicized cop-out to continually over-emphasize
the influence of anthropogenic climate change on wildfires.
I listen to NPR a lot in my
car and climate change is mentioned a lot and I mean a lot. A story about
wildfires would typically mention it a half dozen times. However, there was one
story, albeit a short one, on All Things Considered that did not mention
climate change at all. It was an interesting story where a reporter, Jeva Lange,
conveyed information and data from the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center.
It was noted that the Maui fires were mainly grass fires. Most
wildfires are grassland fires according to a study of fires from 1984-2020 on
the West Coast. That is counterintuitive since we often think of wildfires as
forest fires. Only 35% of wildfires were forest fires. Grass fires burn fast
and are often underestimated. European grasses are spreading in Maui and on the
West Coast. These grasses can triple susceptibility. The largest fires in
Nevada and Texas history were grassland fires. There is a need to stop
prioritizing suppression and let fires burn, she noted. Other risk mitigation
methods include strategic grazing to keep grasses short and keeping a buffer of
agricultural land around communities.
A 2021 report by Maui County
had several recommendations for fire prevention. These included creating many
more fire breaks, fire prevention education, better management of abandoned
sugar cane fields, more inspection and better maintenance of power lines, and perhaps
most importantly, control and replacement of non-native grasses:
Reduction of alien plant
life that serves as fuel. Grasses serve as tinder
and rapidly invade roadside
shoulders.
Action: Implement an
aggressive plan to replace these hazardous fuel
sources with native plants
to reduce combustible fuel while increasing
water retention.
Source: County of Maui: Cost of Government Commission Report on Wildfire Prevention and Cost of Recovery on Maui. July 2021. Report-on-Wildfire-Prevention--Cost-Recovery-on-Maui---Part-1-Report--Exhibits-A-B-33-MB (mauicounty.gov)
These recommendations from these important reports, sounding the alarm since 2014, unfortunately, were not implemented in a timely manner and at the levels needed to prevent this largely preventable tragedy and loss of human life and property.
Western Maui’s History
of Colonialism is a Factor in the Fires and Current Water Rights Disputes
One of Hawaii Governor Josh Green’s first comments after the fires was this: “It’s important that we’re honest about this. People have been fighting against the release of water to fight fires. I’II leave that to you to explore.” Green noted that “we tipped too far” toward water rights for nature and natives.
There was outrage and accusations of colonialism and disaster capitalism were levied against the Democrat governor. There is indeed a past history of colonialism in the area and the upending of functional ecosystems once present in the past by a sugarcane farming boom in the late 1800s. Water was diverted from mountain streams to the sugarcane plantations and native Hawaiian activities such as fishponds and terraced taro fields did suffer. Tourism has long replaced sugarcane as the dominant industry in Maui. One land developer insinuated that Maui firefighters did not have enough water to fight the blaze but that looks to be untrue as firefighters blamed melted pipes and powerless pumps for the loss of water pressure. There probably could have been better preparation for these contingencies as well.
Overall, Right-Wing Coverage More Realistic Than Left-Wing Coverage
This post also shows that left-wing media’s obsession with climate change is de-emphasizing the most effective ways to prevent wildfires and reduce damage from wildfires. I think the left-wing media outlets need to examine this obsession and strive to be more factual and practical in helping to prevent these tragedies. In a way, this over-emphasis on climate change is a kind of misinformation, unfortunately. The right-wing media outlets, while vindictive, have done a much better job with this story. I say that from a moderate left perspective.
References:
Climate
activists are getting people killed. Conn Carroll, Washington Examiner. August
17, 2023. Climate
activists are getting people killed (msn.com)
Hawaii
wildfires stoke climate denial, conspiracy theories. AFP. August 18, 2023. Hawaii
wildfires stoke climate denial, conspiracy theories (msn.com)
Hawaii
Officials Were Warned Years Ago That Maui’s Lahaina Faced High Wildfire Risk. Dan
Frosch and Jim Carlton. The Wall Street Journal. August 12, 2023. Maui
Fire: Hawaii Officials Warned Years Ago Lahaina Was at Risk - WSJ
WALKER:
Americans Deserve Better Than Climate Change Lies. Here’s What Really Caused
The Maui Wildfires. Kristen Walker. The Dailey Caller. August 21, 2023. WALKER:
Americans Deserve Better Than Climate Change Lies. Here’s What Really Caused
The Maui Wildfires (msn.com)
‘Disaster
capitalism at its finest’: Fights over water amid west Maui’s charred ruins
ignite new fears. Bill Weir. CNN. August 21, 2023. ‘Disaster
capitalism at its finest’: Fights over water amid west Maui’s charred ruins
ignite new fears | | kvoa.com
When
it comes to wildfires, beware of dry grass – that’s where most occur. Gurjit
Kaur, Patrick Jarenwattananon, Ailsa Chang. NPR. All Things Considered. August
22, 2023. When
it comes to wildfires, beware of dry grass — that's where most occur : NPR
Wildfires
in the United States 101: Context and Consequences. Matthew Wibbenmeyer and
Anne McDarris. July 30, 2021. Resources for the Future. Wildfires
in the United States 101: Context and Consequences (rff.org)
County
of Maui: Cost of Government Commission Report on Wildfire Prevention and Cost
of Recovery on Maui. July 2021. Report-on-Wildfire-Prevention--Cost-Recovery-on-Maui---Part-1-Report--Exhibits-A-B-33-MB
(mauicounty.gov)
Sensible Decarbonization: Regulation, Risk, and Relative Benefits in Different Approaches to Energy Use, Climate Policy, and Environmental Impact. Kent C. Stewart. Amazon Publishing, 2021.
How 19th-century
pineapple plantations turned Maui into a tinderbox. Claire Wang. The Guardian.
August 27, 2023. How 19th-century pineapple plantations turned Maui into a
tinderbox | Hawaii fires | The Guardian
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