EIA Reports that About 55% of Capacity Weighted New Electricity Generation in 1H 2023 is from Natural Gas

 

     Actually, the report noted that 35% of capacity that came online was solar, natural gas made 34%, and wind made 19%. 11% came from batteries but since batteries must be charged by other energy sources, it is not really an energy source in itself. Thus, adding the three sources together: wind, solar, and natural gas, and capacity-weighting them based on 2022 average capacity factors (solar 24.6, wind 34.6, and combined-cycle natural gas 54.4%). Now, it is possible that some of that natural gas was not combined cycle so the reality might be a bit less, but even so, new natural gas generation far outpaced wind and solar. It also may be considerably more I should point out that two large advanced combined cycle facilities make up about 3.1GW of the 5.7GW that came online in 1H 2023. Based on the 2021 average capacity factor of 71% for advanced combined cycle natural gas, this could mean that 1H natural gas generation could be as much as 61% of capacity-weighted additions.  

     EIA also reported that the expected solar generation for 1H 2023 was only 56% of the generation developers expected to add, or 4.6GW less than expected. The main reason given was supply chain issues. This suggests that the big solar additions expected with the boost from the IRA will be hard to realize. Even so, the expectations for the whole year are that 55% of the new capacity will be solar. That would be 40.1% of capacity-weighted generation (from solar, wind, and natural gas combined) for the whole year. Natural gas is expected to make up 38.7% of capacity- weighted additions for the whole year. Wind is expected at 20.7% for the whole year. It should also be pointed out that the 38.7% of capacity-weighted new natural gas generation is the only source of the three that is not variable, is dispatchable, and since the bulk of it is advanced combined cycle, can be reliable as baseload generation.

     It remains to be seen whether the expected new solar capacity and generation will be added in 2H 2023. However, since a good percentage of it is the capacity planned for 1H it seems more likely that that part will at least come online in 2H. There is no information given whether supply issues have been resolved.

     The EIA also notes that the 1.1GW reactor at the Vogtle nuclear plant came online in July and 9.6GW of battery capacity is expected to come online in 2H.

     The EIA also gives estimates of generation retirements in 2023. Of the expected capacity retirements, 63% is coal and 30% is natural gas. It is likely that much of that capacity about to be retired already has very low capacity factors. These are likely old and inefficient coal and gas units that are retiring. In terms of natural gas those retirements might have a small effect on slightly increasing the overall average capacity factor for natural gas. I have argued before that using the most advanced and most efficient natural gas sources is good for decarbonization. 

 

 

References:

 

Developers added 16.8 GW of U.S. utility-scale generating capacity in first-half 2023. Energy Information Administration. August 8, 2023. U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

 

Capacity factors for selected energy sources in the United States in 2021. Statista. July 11, 2023. U.S. energy capacity factors by source 2021 | Statista