Rapid Temperature Flips May Be an Underestimated Effect of Climate Change, New Research Suggests

      New research published in Nature Communications involving a global assessment of rapid temperature flips from 1961 to 2100 found that in the areas assessed, about 60% of them have experienced more frequent, intense, and rapid temperature flips. The authors also conclude that the increase in temperature flips is also increasing and amplifying threats to natural and socio-economic systems. Potential impacts include early flowering of crops followed by frost damage, power outages, and damage to vulnerable species sensitive to temperature changes.

     Temperature flips are, of course, of two types, warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm. Warm-to-cold flip events are preceded by wetter and cloudier conditions, while cold-to-warm flip events follow drier and sunnier conditions.

     The research also modeled and estimated population exposure and compared impacts on regions with different economic conditions, noting that those in the poorer, less developed latitudes are more exposed to the impacts.

     According to the paper:

“To reveal the mechanisms underlying the temperature flips, we conduct two composite analyzes. The first compares the atmospheric conditions between flip and non-flip events, where non-flip events refer to either warm or cold events that do not flip to the opposite extremes. We examine the composite anomalies of relevant atmospheric variables on the last day of the warm (or cold) event for both warm-to-cold (or cold-to-warm) flip and non-flip events. This comparison highlights the differences in pre-existing atmospheric conditions that may influence whether a temperature flip occurs. The second analysis focuses on the evolution of atmospheric conditions during flip events by examining anomalies throughout the transition phase of the flips, which is defined as the period from the last day of the preceding warm (or cold) event to the first day of the following cold (or warm) event. This analysis allows identification of the key physical processes governing temperature flips.”

     The researchers note that it is urgent that we better understand and mitigate the accelerating hazardous temperature flips in light of global warming.

     The figure below shows the physical processes that are changed by temperature flips.

 

     

 

 

 

References:

 

Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world. Sijia Wu, Ming Luo, Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau, Wei Zhang, Lin Wang, Zhen Liu, Lijie Lin, Yijing Wang, Erjia Ge, Jianfeng Li, Yuanchao Fan, Yimin Chen, Weilin Liao, Xiaoyu Wang, Xiaocong Xu, Zhixin Qi, Ziwei Huang, Faith Ka Shun Chan, David Yongqin Chen, Xiaoping Liu & Tao Pei. Nature Communications. volume 16, Article number: 3543. April 22, 2025. Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world | Nature Communications

A Quick Primer on Oil Refining: The Journey from Crude Oil to Heavy Fuel, Kerosene, Jet Fuel, Gasoline, Naphtha, and Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

 According to the Canadian site Energy Education:

“An oil refinery is an industrial plant where crude oil is separated into a variety of different, useful substances through a variety of chemical separation steps.”

Many refineries extract the full range of petroleum products. Others focus on a limited number of particular products, such as asphalt plants and petrochemical plants.

     The general steps in refining crude oil include fractional distillation, chemical processing, treating, blending, and storage. Other analyses separate refining into three main processes: separation, conversion, and treatment. Energy Education describes the fractional distillation process that extracts the different hydrocarbon products by temperature as follows:

“Fractional Distillation: Crude oil enters the refinery through a series of pumps and first stops at a heater. In this heater, the crude oil is heated to around 370°C. After the crude oil has been heated and is vaporized, it travels to a distillation tower. Inside these towers the vaporized crude oil is separated into fractions by utilizing their different boiling points. As the vaporized crude oil travels up the tower, fractions with different boiling points condense at different levels, separating different components of the oil. Lighter fractions like butane and propane are collected at the top with heavier fractions collected at the bottom.”

     Chemical processing is used in some newer refineries to break long hydrocarbon chains into shorter ones, a process known as conversion.

“In a vessel known as a hydrocracker, heavier petroleum fractions are exposed to heat and pressure in the presence of a catalyst to break up long hydrocarbon chains. This is useful as it converts some of the heavier fractions into more useful fractions, such as gasoline, jet fuel, and propane.”

     Treating refers mainly to removing sulfur and other impurities. Many crudes contain high levels of sulfur. Removing the sulfur makes the oil burn cleaner and more efficiently. De-sulfurization units are employed at many refineries. However, these are expensive to construct, costing hundreds of millions of dollars, and potentially raising the cost of needed products like gasoline. Government mandates for sulfur removal have been contentious over the past several years and have pulled back somewhat. Hydrogen is used in desulfurization.

     Blending creates different composite products like gasoline with different octane ratings. On-site storage is followed by distribution via pipeline, rail, or truck.

“In refineries, unprocessed crude oil is separated into a variety of different useful products. Although crude oil is not useful by itself, when separated a large number of useful hydrocarbons are obtained, primarily gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, kerosene, and propane. In addition to this, crude oil yields other important products such as natural gas liquids, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, lubricating oils, naphthas, and waxes. Because all of these useful products are obtained through the refining process, the refining of oil is an incredibly important step in the oil and gas industry.”

     All refineries have atmospheric distillation units that separate products based on boiling points, but more advanced ones, about 80% of all refineries now, also have vacuum distillation units where the pressure is lowered below atmospheric pressure to extract products. At low pressures, the boiling point of the atmospheric distillation units’ “bottoms” is low enough that lighter products can vaporize without cracking or degrading the oil.

     A vacuum distillation unit is depicted below.

     Gasoline was originally discarded in early refining, as kerosene was a more desirable product. Crude oil is a mixture of many hydrocarbon compounds, including paraffins, naphthenes, and more. Paraffins are the most common component in both crude oils and refined products such as gasoline. In every barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil, there are about 20 gallons of gasoline that can be extracted. The heavier extracts from distillation remain at the bottom of the tower. These are known as gas oils and are less valuable products that can be “cracked” via heat, pressure, and catalysts into lighter hydrocarbons. Excess light hydrocarbons from refining, like naphtha, can be combined with heavier hydrocarbons to make desired products. According to Slash Gear:

“While no two barrels of crude oil are the same, roughly 42% of each barrel will ultimately become gasoline, on average. Another 27% becomes diesel fuel, meaning that nearly three quarters of each barrel makes its way to the gas pump in one form or another. About 6% of each barrel becomes jet fuel, 5% becomes tar-like heavy fuel, 3% becomes light fuel, and 2% becomes other hydrocarbon fuels.”

“After all of the fuels have been removed, you're left with about 14% of the original barrel. About 4% of that will become asphalt used to make roads and sidewalks. The last 10% gets spread around to just about every industry on the planet and is where we get petroleum products from plastics to perfumes and everything in between.”

Other products made from refined crude oil include plastics (although most are now made from the natural gas liquid known as ethane), antifreeze, car tires, clothing, fertilizers, paint, soap, yarn, nylon, a whole host of petrochemicals, and much more.

     

 

References:

 

From Crude to Unleaded: How Gasoline is Made. Cassidy Ward. Slash Gear. January 11, 2024. From Crude To Unleaded: How Gasoline Is Made (slashgear.com)

Oil Refinery. Energy Education. Oil refinery - Energy Education

Oil and petroleum products explained. Refining crude oil. Energy Information Administration. Last updated: February 22, 2023. Refining crude oil - the refining process - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Petroleum refining processes. Wikipedia. Petroleum refining processes - Wikipedia

Vacuum distillation is a key part of the petroleum refining process. Energy Information Administration. December 10, 2012. Vacuum distillation is a key part of the petroleum refining process - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

 

Adopt-a-Highway: Solid Waste Disposal One Piece at a Time: Useful but Hard Work

      This post reflects my own journey working with the state DOT for 25 years, picking up roadside litter. I don’t do it very often, but in my case, it’s a tough job for several reasons. When we started, it was me, my wife, and my young son. Now it is just me. We picked a section of roadway, a state route, that was a magnet for trash. It is also difficult due to the blind turns and roadside topography. In some places, a steep hillside comes just about to the edge of the road. In others, there is a steep drop-off starting near the edge of the road. Thus, it can be dangerous. When my young son was along, we had to be very careful. He stayed with my wife away from the dangerous areas.

     According to Wikipedia:

“The program originated in the 1980s when James Evans, an engineer for the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT), saw debris flying out of a pickup truck bed. Litter cleanup by the city was expensive, so Evans sought the help of local groups to sponsor the cleaning of sections of the highway. The efforts of Billy Black, a TxDOT public information officer, led to quarterly cleanup cycles, volunteer safety training, the issuing of reflective vests and equipment, and the posting of adopt-a-highway signs.”

Indeed, the common practice among pick-up truck owners of tossing their trash in the truck bed, only for it to blow out onto the ground, can be infuriating.

“Some states, such as Nevada, allow both Adopt-a-Highway and Sponsor-a-Highway programs. In both programs, an organization that contributes to the cleanup is allowed to post its name. However, while an adopting organization provides the volunteers who do the litter pickup, a sponsoring organization instead pays professional contractors to do the work. Because of safety concerns, the latter is more typical in highways with high traffic volumes.”

     When a group is approved for litter pick-up, they are given a sign to indicate their community service. That is free advertising. There is also some history with marginalized groups being supported or denied as Adopt-a-Highway groups. In 2001, a gay and lesbian group was denied participation in South Dakota. Later, they were allowed but could not have their name and orientation on the signs. A local strip club is allowed on signage near Pittsburgh, PA. In 2005 the American Nazi Party was allowed to have signs put up in Oregon, but vandalism of the signs led to them being taken down. Now, the party has no affiliation with Adopt-a-Highway. In 2012, the KKK in Georgia tried to get signs but were denied due to safety concerns and the group’s history of hate.  

    Working for Adopt-a-Highway in my state, Ohio, requires occasional meetings to watch videos about issues that come up, have some discussion, and to convey rules and protocol. We were told about some dangers including discarded waste from illegal meth labs. We are issued vests, and when it’s time to pick up, we go and get, or they drop off, signs and trash bags. I use metal grabbers that I have to pay for. After picking up, we fill out a sheet with info on our pick-up: number of bags, any issues that need consideration, and the strangest items found. I have found gross stuff like dirty diapers. Once I picked up a small plastic bag and noticed it was moving. There was a snake inside that was able to slither out.

     There are also many annoyances with picking up litter. Sometimes people don’t slow down when they should. Often, they don’t get over when they pass. Sometimes they can’t because of a blind turn ahead. I tend to get mad because my section of the road is always trash-heavy. The load has not declined over the 25 years I have been doing it. Littering is alive and well. I often consider that a certain percentage of the passing vehicles have people in them who have thrown the trash out. I never throw trash out, so I know it is very easy to not be a litterbug. I wonder after 25 years if there is a new generation of litterbugs. I admit, I get frustrated by the amount of trash, and I consider how many individual events of tossing occur in the intervening months between pick-ups. It is in the thousands, probably tens of thousands, over the two-mile stretch that I clean up. It reminds me that people are a-holes. There are other annoyances for me. There are not very many places to park along the way, so sometimes you have to carry what becomes a heavy bag for long distances. Sometimes the wind blows the large bags around. Sometimes broken glass or cans shredded by mowing rip the bottom of the bag, and you have to double-bag them after noticing that trash was falling out. I collect all the bags and put them in one place so the DOT can easily collect them. Last time I did this, I noticed a leak had dripped muck into my back seat. Probably stinky muck. I have to squat over ditches, empty out cans and bottles filled with water and muck. I have to reach and work on steep slopes close to the road. One thing that particularly annoys me is when people throw out bottles that are full or mostly full and capped. It is hard or impossible to pick them up with the grabber, and they make your bag heavy. One person (I assume) in particular would buy 40-ounce bottles of beer and drink a very small amount of them, and throw them out. They were heavy. What the hell? Another issue that happens on my route is ticks. I always end up with ticks after pickup. This last time I picked seven ticks off of me: five deer ticks, one lone-star tick, and one baby tick. The average is about four or five. I was going to say that it is a thankless task, but there are people who stop and say thank you, which I appreciate, as it subdues my anger a bit. I work at a fast pace, sometimes very fast, trying to get it done so the DOT can get the bags before they spend the night outside, where raccoons can tear them up. The local DOTs work early hours, I believe 7AM to 3:30 PM. My last pick up was seven hours of fast-paced work with one ten-minute break. I pick up both sides of the road separately due to the dangers on a little more than 2 miles. I estimate that I walk close to five miles in a normal pickup. I was sore after that last one. It’s a good workout. I’ll be turning 60 this year, so I won’t be able to do it forever, but I don’t plan on quitting anytime soon. One can even discern the state of the economy by the brands of beer thrown out.

 

   

 

References:

 

Adopt-a-Highway. Wikipedia. Adopt-a-Highway - Wikipedia

Rare Earth Mineral Recycling Harvests Used Batteries and Decommissioned Hard Drives from Data Centers to Help Offset Tariff-Constrained Supply from China

     Improved recycling capabilities can potentially offset part of the loss of rare earth minerals from China, but it is not a silver bullet. While the U.S. is engaged in an economically dangerous trade war with China, the world’s main supplier and processor of rare earth minerals, there is a need to source these elsewhere. One source is recycling. However, this source is often costly, so the newly created impossible costs from China are giving an incentive to recycling and may lead to breakthroughs that lower costs. These include technological breakthroughs and logistical breakthroughs.

     Redwood Materials, a company founded by Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, is set to recycle used batteries for shared mobility company Lime. Redwood recycled 20 gigawatt-hours of battery material from old cars, scooters, and other products in 2024, enough to produce 250,000 EVs.  Interesting Engineering reports:

“According to Redwood, stripping batteries for relevant elements can help recycle them to make new high-quality batteries that can be used for a wide range of purposes, from cars to phones. Their higher quality ensures they can be recycled further and returned to the supply chain up to 98 percent of the time.”

     Cycle and scooter batteries last about 500 cycles, after which they must be collected and the batteries harvested for materials. Redwood is tasked with recovering and recycling the batteries for rare earth minerals.

     Another pilot project is demonstrating the viability of rare earth minerals, this time from spent hard drives from data centers. As reported by Interesting Engineering:

“In a first-of-its-kind pilot, Western Digital, Microsoft, Critical Materials Recycling (CMR), and PedalPoint Recycling processed nearly 50,000 pounds of decommissioned hard drives and server hardware.”

“Using a new acid-free chemical method, the team extracted rare earth elements like Neodymium, Praseodymium, and Dysprosium, as well as high-purity gold, copper, aluminum, and steel.”

The process is acid-free dissolution recycling (ADR), a technology developed by the Critical Materials Innovation (CMI) Hub. The pilot showed a 90% recovery rate for rare earth minerals and base metals and 80% total materials recovery by mass. The new system for decommissioning Microsoft data center hard drives was deemed a success.

“Tom Lograsso, director of the CMI Hub, praised the team’s rapid development. “Scaling ADR from lab bench to demonstration scale in just eight years is an incredible achievement,” he said.

“With demand for hard drives climbing in tandem with AI and data storage growth, the potential to recover rare earths at scale offers a long-term solution for the U.S.”

     As noted below from a press release by Western Digital, a collaborator in the pilot project, the current recycling rate for REEs and other materials is low, less than 10%. That is likely to increase soon.

“In a multi-party pilot program, Western Digital (Nasdaq: WDC), in collaboration with Microsoft, Critical Materials Recycling (CMR) and PedalPoint Recycling has taken a major step toward closing that loop. Together, the companies transformed ~50,000 pounds of shredded end-of-life HDDs, mounting caddies and other materials into critical high-value materials, all while significantly reducing environmental impact. This pioneering process of creating a new advanced sorting ecosystem with an eco-friendly non-acid process not only recaptures essential rare earth elements but also extracts metals like gold (Au), copper (Cu), aluminum (Al) and steel, feeding them back into the U.S. supply chain, supporting industries that rely on these resources—such as electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced electronics. When scaled worldwide, this new recycling process could return a lot of recovered rare earths to the U.S. supply pool, drastically reducing the need for virgin material mining detrimental to people and planet. Today, most primary production (>85%) of REEs occurs outside of the U.S. and the current domestic recycling rate for REEs is very low (<10%)”

Of course, the project, and other potential projects like it, will decrease carbon emissions relative to mining and processing these materials and shore up the U.S. supply chain for them. The Critical Materials Innovation Hub is a U.S. DOE Energy Innovation Hub led by Ames National Laboratory, seeded by a $10 million grant from the DOE to develop solutions for securing REE and other critical mineral supply chains.

     Another collaborator in the project, Pedal Point Recycling, specializes in shredding components to two-inch-by-two-inch squares. The company recycles solar panels and electronics, with the goal of reducing the amount of e-waste. The world produces an estimated 62 million tons of e-waste per year. Thus, there is also a clear need from a waste-reduction perspective to recycle these materials.

  

 

References:

 

US extracts rare earths from hard drives, strikes blow to China’s dominance. Aamir Khollam. Interesting Engineering. April 21, 2025. US extracts rare earths from hard drives, strikes blow to China’s dominance

At-Scale, Hard Disk Drive Rare Earth Material Capture Program Successfully Launched in the United States. Western Digital. April 17, 2025. At-Scale, Hard Disk Drive Rare Earth Material Capture Program Successfully Launched in the United States | Western Digital

Tesla co-founder’s firm to recycle old batteries for rare earths to beat China curbs. China is countering US tariff with a ban on export of certain rare earth metals to the US. April 15, 2025. Ameya Paleja. Tesla co-founder’s firm to recycle batteries from EVs amid China curbs

Critical Materials Innovation Hub. Ames National Laboratory. Critical Materials Innovation Hub | Ames Laboratory

Our Services. Pedal Point Recycling. Services - Pedal Point Technologies

U.S. Uranium Production is Rising After Falling Off in 2019: One Mill and Seven In-Situ Leaching Plants in Operation

    Uranium is produced or able to be produced in six U.S. states: Wyoming. Texas, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Utah. However, current production is limited to three states: Wyoming , Texas, and Utah. It is produced at in-situ leaching plants and uranium mills. Currently, there are seven in-situ leaching plants in operation and one uranium mill in operation, the White Mesa Mill in Utah. The increase in domestic uranium production was spurred by sustained higher uranium prices. The mill also produces rare earth minerals and vanadium. It expects to continue to focus on uranium production in the future. Total U.S. uranium production in the fourth quarter of 2024 alone was higher than the total annual production for each of the years in 2019–23. The EIA notes:

“Uranium concentrate has commercial uses as the fuel for civilian nuclear reactors and in medical applications. Uranium concentrate must be processed in conversion and enrichment facilities before being fabricated in fuel rods or pellets at fuel fabrication plants. These fuel rods or pellets can then be loaded into civilian nuclear reactors.”

 

Fourth-quarter 2024

“U.S. production of uranium concentrate (U3O8) in the fourth quarter of 2024 totaled 375,401 pounds U3O8, more than triple the third quarter production of 121,296 pounds U3O8. This quarter’s total uranium production occurred at seven facilities, four in Wyoming (Nichols Ranch ISR Project, Lost Creek Project, Ross CPP and Smith Ranch-Highland Operation), two in Texas (Alta Mesa Project and Rosita), and one in Utah (White Mesa Mill).”

 

 

References:

 

U.S. uranium production in 2024 was highest in six years. Energy Information Administration. April 2, 2025. U.S. uranium production in 2024 was highest in six years - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Domestic Uranium Production Report – Quarterly Data for 4th Quarter 2024.  Release Date: March 13, 2025. Domestic Uranium Production Report - Quarterly - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

 

Lithospheric Foundering Under the Sierra Nevada: New Rare Evidence?

      Lithospheric foundering, or delamination, refers to the loss and sinking (foundering) of a portion of the lowermost lithosphere from the tectonic plate to which it was attached. The lower part of the lithosphere, called the mantle lithosphere, is denser than the asthenosphere below it. According to Wikipedia:

“Delamination occurs when the lower continental crust and mantle lithosphere break away from the upper continental crust. There are two conditions that need to be met in order for delamination to proceed:

·       The lower lithosphere must be denser than the asthenosphere.

·       The intrusion of more buoyant asthenosphere making contact with the crust and replacing dense lower lithosphere must occur.

Density inversions are more likely to occur where there are high mantle temperatures. This limits this phenomenon to arc environments, volcanic rifted margins and continental areas undergoing extension.”

     There are two main geological effects of delamination: uplift of the crustal lithosphere into mountain ranges and volcanism as hot mantle material breaks through the thinned lithosphere.

     When Seismologist Deborah Kilb was studying California Earthquake records, she noticed a series of quakes that should have been too deep into the mantle for seismic activity due to the high pressures and temperatures. The source of these quakes was nearly twice as deep as the deepest California earthquake epicenters at about 11km (6 miles). The deeper quakes were centered 18km (11 miles) below the surface. Some quakes were 20-40km (12.4-25 miles) below the surface.

     Kilb shared the earthquake data with Vera Schulte-Pelkum, a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and an associate research professor of geological sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, who was studying deep rock deformations under the Sierra Nevada. They then utilized a seismic technique known as receiver function analysis to image the rocks below the Sierra Nevada. The scientists found that in the central region of the mountain range, Earth’s crust is currently peeling away from the bottom in the process of delamination, or lithospheric foundering, with the lowest layers melting deeper into the mantle.

     Lithospheric foundering has been studied in several places, including under the Andean plateau and under Tibet. The process has been associated with batholiths – igneous rock intrusions, usually granitic, and found near mountain fold belts. Knowledge of lithospheric foundering can offer insights into the formation of continents. There are indications of lithospheric foundering on Venus, where there is no plate tectonics. Below is a map of faults and lithospheric structures under Tibet, and below that is a similar map under the Central Andes.

“Lithospheric foundering is the process of the denser materials being pulled to the bottom, while the less dense material emerges at the top, resulting in land creation. “It’s dumping some of this denser stuff into this gooey, solid mantle layer underneath and sort of basically detaching it so it stops pulling on the less dense stuff above,” she {Kilb} explained.”

     Under Sierra Nevada, they found a distinct layer about 40 to 70 kilometers (25 to 43 miles) deep with characteristics different from those of the rock around it. This is the layer being peeled off.

     There is an ongoing debate about whether the mantle anomaly identified under the Sierra Nevada is due to lithospheric foundering or subduction. There is scant evidence of lithospheric foundering due to the difficulty of imaging at great depths. Thus, the new research may offer some rare evidence. Graphics from the paper are below.   

 

  

References:

 

Scientists stumble across rare evidence that Earth is peeling underneath the Sierra Nevada. Taylor Nicioli, CNN. April 18, 2025. Earth is peeling underneath the Sierra Nevada, rare evidence shows | CNN

Earth's crust is peeling away under California. Stephanie Pappas. Live Science. February 1, 2025. Earth's crust is peeling away under California | Live Science

Lithospheric Foundering in Progress Imaged Under an Extinct Continental Arc. Vera Schulte-Pelkum and Deborah Kilb. Geophysical Research Letters. Volume51, Issue 24. December 13, 2024. Lithospheric Foundering in Progress Imaged Under an Extinct Continental Arc - Schulte‐Pelkum - 2024 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

Crustal bobbing in response to lithospheric foundering recorded by detrital proxy records from the central Andean Plateau. B. Carrapa; G. Jepson; P.G. DeCelles; S.W.M. George; M. Ducea; C. Campbell; R.R. Dawson (née Canavan). Geology (2025) 53 (1): 29–33. Crustal bobbing in response to lithospheric foundering recorded by detrital proxy records from the central Andean Plateau | Geology | GeoScienceWorld

Lithospheric foundering and underthrusting imaged beneath Tibet. Min Chen, Fenglin Niu, Jeroen Tromp, Adrian Lenardic, Cin-Ty A. Lee, Wenrong Cao & Julia Ribeiro. Nature Communications volume 8, Article number: 15659 (2017). Lithospheric foundering and underthrusting imaged beneath Tibet | Nature Communications

Delamination (geology). Wikipedia. Delamination (geology) - Wikipedia

Plateau Formation Controlled by Lithospheric Foundering Under a Weak Crust. M. McMillan, L. M. Schoenbohm, A. R. Tye. Geophysical Research Letters. Volume 50, Issue16. August 22, 2023. Plateau Formation Controlled by Lithospheric Foundering Under a Weak Crust - McMillan - 2023 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

China Stops Buying U.S. LNG Due to Tariffs, Indicating They Will Buy More from Russia Instead

      In another example of tariffs causing loss of market share, China stopped purchasing U.S. LNG, despite long-term contracts. After the 15% tariff was increased to 49%, China had to stop buying it. The U.S. was a minor LNG supplier to China, making up 6% of the country’s LNG purchases in 2024. Still, it is a significant loss of market share that will likely be replaced by Russia, helping to relieve their sanctions pain. Putin can be grateful to Trump for that. This also serves to undermine Europe’s dropping of Russian LNG purchases. China has plenty of other LNG supplier opportunities with lower economic growth expected, so it is fair to assume that the loss of market share may become permanent. The tariffs have become a de facto embargo. One positive effect might be that the loss of demand from Asia may bring down natural gas prices for Europe, which Trump wants to buy more U.S. LNG.

     Shummas Humayun for Cryptopolitan writes:

“For now, the empty arrival logs at Chinese ports underline the practical impact of tariffs that turned U.S. LNG from a growth trade into a stranded cargo, while giving Russia another opening in Asia’s largest gas market.”

     Michael Barnard of Clean Technica writes:

“The result is a gaping hole in the U.S. LNG export market, one that undermines years of investment assumptions and exposes the growing fragility of fossil fuel infrastructure in a changing geopolitical landscape.”

He also points out that when the U.S. began exporting LNG in 2016, China emerged as a major customer. However, they have been dropping their purchases for some time, going from 11% of their total buys in 2021 to 6% in 2024. China bought 15% of U.S. LNG in 2017, but Trump, during his first term trade war caused the purchases to plummet to nearly zero by 2019. A Phase One trade agreement restarted flows in 2020, but even then as now, it was a loss for the U.S. The volumes in 2021 were a record high in Chinese purchases, representing 1% of U.S. LNG sales and about $3.4 billion.

“The loss of China as a customer comes as the U.S. LNG industry is still navigating Europe’s shifting role. Europe became the largest destination for U.S. LNG almost overnight after 2022, when Russian pipeline gas was cut off and European countries scrambled for replacements. U.S. export volumes to Europe surged to over 60% of total shipments in early 2023, with countries like France, the Netherlands, and the UK relying on American LNG to keep industries running and homes heated.”

However, he notes that the EU buys were not meant to last as they decarbonize, electrify, and diversify their energy supply. As a result, they have favored short-term contracts. He also thinks that the long-term viability of increasing U.S. LNG export capacity is in danger and that stranded capacity will occur in the future. I tend to disagree, since natural gas still has a lot of ability to replace coal. However, he may be right that we may end up building too much export capacity. There are competitors like Qatar and Australia. The U.S. has lots of gas but not an endless supply. I doubt there will be stranded cargoes anytime soon, as he suggests, but deeper into the future its possible.

“The implications for these terminals are severe. Without Chinese offtake, nearly a third of the volume committed to future U.S. projects has evaporated. Some developers will attempt to resell this capacity, but few buyers have China’s appetite, credit profile, or willingness to sign 20-year deals.”

“Projects that have yet to reach FID may be shelved entirely. Banks and institutional investors will demand more conservative projections. Risk premiums will rise. Insurance may become harder to obtain. Terminal utilization rates will fall short of modeled expectations, and the entire economics of Gulf Coast LNG will have to be revisited.”

I am not sure he is correct here, and I disagree with his suggestions that we are in a “managed decline” of fossil fuel use – the statistics show otherwise – but at some point, in the next 20 years, that may be the case. In any case, the current loss of Chinese market share is not a good outcome for the U.S., especially if a new trade agreement is not reached. Even if it is, China may not want to risk the unreliability of U.S. trade policy.

 

    

 

References:

 

China halts its purchase of U.S. liquified natural gas. Shummas Humayun. Cryptopolitan. April 18, 2025. China halts its purchase of U.S. liquified natural gas

China Walks Away: U.S. LNG Expansion Plans Unravel as Trade War Escalates. Michael Barnard. Clean Technica. April 18, 2025. China Walks Away: U.S. LNG Expansion Plans Unravel as Trade War Escalates - CleanTechnica

Puerto Rico’s Power Woes: Cheated by the Outdated Jones Act, Hurricane Maria, Blackouts on an Inadequate Grid, Impossible Renewables Plans, and Finally, (Some) Access to Lower-Cost US LNG

     I remember after Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico and Tesla, Sunrun and other solar companies were heading down to power the grid with solar panels and Tesla batteries. They focused on powering up vital services like hospitals and water systems. Despite their confidence, the success was limited. They did well at providing quick restoration of power. There were issues with circuitry and grid integration, but the microgrid model mostly worked. However, the solar and battery systems that remained were not properly maintained, and many became dysfunctional.

“We see it with off-grid systems all around the world, where well-intentioned organizations will install systems, get a lot of PR, get funding upfront, then they leave, and there’s a disconnect between the PR and the reality on the ground.”

They failed to budget for project management systems and people to ensure O&M.

The hurricane severely damaged the island’s power grid. Power was out for months. I found an article from 18 months after the hurricane that describes the efforts to that time. The great renewables plus battery microgrid future envisioned was not coming to pass at all, and indeed has not to this day. The Island passed a clean energy bill in March 2019, calling for 100% clean energy by 2050. The pathway called for 20% of power from renewables by 2022 and 40% by 2025. The reality for 2025 is just 7%.

     After the devastating hurricane, which the country has not yet fully recovered from after 7.5 years, FEMA funds were restricted to pay for repairing existing systems when the real need was to rebuild the power grid anew. This is of course,e due to the inadequacy of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), which was a monopoly at the time. The distribution grid was largely destroyed by the hurricane. Power was privatized to provide incentives for grid improvement. PREPA was already deep in debt and entered bankruptcy in 2015. Allegations of corruption, including Trump’s rage against mismanagement of relief funds, also plagued the power authority. The power grid was already aging faster than it could be repaired. According to Wikipedia:

“In June 2020 governor Wanda Vázquez Garced and the AEE/PREPA signed a contract with LUMA Energy that would give the company control of the AEE/PREPA electric grid for 15 years.”

     Blackouts are common on the Island, and the one that started yesterday during a power-hungry Easter weekend, where many tourists are visiting the island of 3.2 million people and 1.4 million power clients. Many hotels are filled to capacity. At one point, the entire island was without power. Lack of investment and lack of maintenance are the main issues with Puerto Rico’s power system. The last big blackout was on New Year’s Eve about 3.5 months ago. According to a spokesperson from Genera PR, a major power generator, inadequate frequency regulation caused the outage.

“Daniel Hernández, vice president of operations at Genera PR, said at a news conference that a disturbance hit the transmission system shortly after noon on Wednesday, during a time when the grid is vulnerable because there are not many machines regulating frequency at that hour.”

     In March 2019, PREPA awarded New Fortress a $1.5 billion contract to convert two units at the San Juan power station to run on gas as well as fuel oil, to supply the new units with fuel. This was through a floating storage unit, basically a ship that receives and transfers LNG. Replacing fuel oil with LNG is a win for cost and the environment. However, there were issues with the deal as the San Juan harbor was close to being inadequate for the large tankers delivering LNG, and there were regulatory and permitting issues with FERC that New Fortress failed to address correctly. Dredging of the harbor now allows the ships to traverse safely. According to a quite biased against LNG Huff Post article from October 2024:

“New Fortress built two new gas-fired power stations. This past March {2024}, the company sold the plants to PREPA, which has received billions of dollars from the Federal Emergency Management Administration, for nearly $400 million. That same month, the company received another deal to supply more gas to Puerto Rico. Selling PREPA the power stations, New Fortress said in an investor presentation, “ensures installed power remains part of Puerto Rico’s infrastructure” and “more than doubles” the company’s “gas supply opportunity on the island.”

     LNG should be considered to be one of the best solutions for decreasing power generation costs, especially if U.S. LNG can be delivered. This includes converting fuel oil units to natural gas and building new natural gas plants. However, there has long been a stumbling block – The 1920s Jones Act.

 

How an Outdated Protectionist Rule Cheated Puerto Rico

     While 24% of Puerto Rico’s grid runs on natural gas, they have been unable to buy gas from the U.S. due to a 1922 protectionist rule called the Jones Act that requires fuel to be delivered by ships with American crews. According to Cato Institute’s Colin Grabow in a March 2025 article:

“The problem for Puerto Rico (as well as New England, and possibly Alaska and Hawaii too) is that none of the world’s more than 600 LNG tankers comply with the protectionist shipping law. As a result, LNG cannot be transported by water from US export terminals to those parts of the US that consume natural gas.”

“Until now.”

“Last week, shipping firm Crowley announced that a French-built LNG tanker it recently purchased will begin supplying American natural gas to the US territory. Named American Energy, it is allowed to operate thanks to a Jones Act loophole that permits foreign-built tankers to transport LNG to Puerto Rico (sorry, New England) provided they are American-flagged, crewed, owned, and—this is a big one—constructed before the measure was passed in October 1996.”

“In 2019, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority’s (PREPA) CEO told Congress that the inability to source LNG from the US mainland meant hundreds of millions of dollars in lost savings (an amount later clarified at $300 million annually). This helps explain why Puerto Rico’s government in late 2018 requested a ten-year waiver of the Jones Act (ultimately denied) for LNG shipments.”

“With US LNG off-limits, Puerto Rico has been forced to obtain the fuel in recent years from more distant sources such as Spain, Oman, Norway, and Nigeria.”

This situation has been ridiculous and unfair to Puerto Rico since the U.S. began exporting LNG in 2015. The French-built tanker is not an ideal solution either, since it is an older tanker that is steam-powered, but it is better than nothing. Many, including me, have called for an end to the outdated Jones Act, or at least Section 37 of it, which requires ship and crew restrictions. As shown below from a 2013 analysis, most of PREPA’s costs were fuel costs. That is where they could save $300 million per year and apply some or much of that capital to much-needed grid maintenance and upgrades. Even with the loophole, the situation is still ridiculous as the French vessel costs four times as much to operate as a modern LNG tanker.

“Puerto Rico deserves to be served by efficient, modern vessels instead of a costly one that, in more normal circumstances, would be a prime candidate for scrapping.”

Surely that tanker also increases emissions significantly compared to modern LNG-powered tankers. The fact that the island is primarily powered by diesel and heavy fuel oil (62%) and coal (8%) means that there is plenty of opportunity to replace some or much of that with cheaper, cleaner, lower carbon LNG that should be delivered from the nearby U.S.  

The outdated Jones Act should be scrapped along with the outdated tanker that found a loophole in it.

 

    

 

 

References:

 

Jones Act Loophole Allows Puerto Rico to Finally Access American Natural Gas. Colin Grabow. Cato Institute. March 25, 2025. Jones Act Loophole Allows Puerto Rico to Finally Access American Natural Gas | Cato at Liberty Blog

Island-wide blackout hits Puerto Rico as residents prepare for Easter weekend. AP. April 16, 2025. Island-wide blackout hits Puerto Rico as residents prepare for Easter weekend

On Puerto Rico’s 'Forgotten Island,' Tesla's Busted Solar Panels Tell A Cautionary Tale. Alexander C. Kaufman. Huff Post. May 11, 2019. On Puerto Rico’s 'Forgotten Island,' Tesla's Busted Solar Panels Tell A Cautionary Tale | HuffPost Impact

Puerto Rico Territory Energy Profile. Energy Information Administration. Puerto Rico Profile

'A national disgrace': 1.4 million left without power in Puerto Rico blackout. ABC News. April 16, 2025. 'A national disgrace': 1.4 million left without power in Puerto Rico blackout

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. Wikipedia. Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority - Wikipedia

The LNG Facility In Puerto Rico That Could Become A Full-On Nightmare. Gas disasters are the rise, and an import terminal in densely populated San Juan is operating without federal permits. Alexander C. Kaufman and Hermes Ayala Guzmán. Huff Post. October 21, 2024. LNG In Puerto Rico Could Turn Into A Disaster | HuffPost Impact