New Heat Pump Designs and Applications: Cold-Climate Heat Pumps, Capacitor-Based Heat Pump Research, and Heat Pumps for EVs That Can Reduce Winter Range Loss

 

     Heat pumps have some serious limitations, but that appears to be changing as new models come on the market that can operate efficiently at lower temperatures. I have an air-source heat pump in my house. It is great for air conditioning. My cost for A/C is barely noticeable. However, with an instantaneous nearly 30% rise in power costs for my region and provider and my own difficulty making money lately, I can really feel all power cost increases as an acute pain in the wallet. I have had to decrease my winter thermostat to 62 degrees F and increase my summer thermostat to 78 degrees F. 

     Another thing of which I am acutely aware is that below an outside temperature of about 10-15 degrees F for a length of time, my heat pump works inefficiently. I have to supplement with other electric heat. I will likely struggle with this over the next few weeks as high temps in the 20s and low temps in the single digits are forecast for several days ahead. To be honest, it is no fun. One strategy that helps is to raise the thermostat during the early evening to build up heat in the house so it will remain longer. As predicted, my heat pump is indeed saving me over $500 per year in power costs compared to my previous electric furnace. At an installation cost of $5000 in late 2018, I calculate that after this winter I will have saved over $3000 compared to my previous furnace and by 2027 or 2028, my installation costs will have paid for the system with 2-10 years or more of operating life remaining. Lucky for me, when I eventually need a new one, it will be one with much better low-temperature performance.

 

 

Cold-Climate Heat Pumps

 

     Fortunately, there are new air-source heat pump models that are much more efficient in lower temperatures. Electrek reported at the end of 2022 that Johnson Controls developed an air-source heat pump prototype that can operate well at temperatures as low as -20 degrees F. This was developed as part of the DOE’s Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge. The DOE is aiming to commercialize some of these models soon, putting them on the market in 2024. Other companies including Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Rheem, and Bosch are participating. Trane developed a prototype that can work at -23 degrees F. More recently, companies Daikin, Midea, and Johnson Controls were added. Those who buy can also take advantage of the Energy Efficient Tax Credit 25C tax credits.

     The DOE writes in the Cold-Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) Technology Challenge factsheet: “Space conditioning and water heating consume over 40% of the nation’s primary energy and are a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Electric heat pumps (HPs), which extract heat from the air and ground, are an efficient alternative to fuel-fired space conditioning and water heating equipment. However, the performance of conventional HPs declines in colder climates, which have high space heating demands. In recent years, HVAC manufacturers have developed specialized cold-climate heat pumps (CCHPs) which incorporate advanced designs to operate with greater capacity and efficiency at low outdoor temperatures (below 32°F).” Space conditioning accounts for about 46% of all building greenhouse gas emissions, 42% of all building energy bills, and 56% of all household energy bills.

     The DOE effort involves two types: increasing the efficiency of models operating at 5 degrees F and models with successful operation at -15 degrees F. The DOE reported in June 2022 that American heat pump manufacturer Lennox International became the first to develop a next-generation electric heat pump as part of the challenge. It was reported that the Lennox “prototype delivers 100% heating at 5°F at double the efficiency, and 70% to 80% heating at -5°F and -10°F. DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory validated the performance and efficiency of Lennox’s prototype.”

     Here is a good explanation from an article in CNET for why heat pumps slow down and work less efficiently in cold weather:

 

“The heat pump is cycling refrigerant through coils outside of your home, trying to pick up what thermal energy is available in the air. When it gets too cold, water in the air starts to condense on the coils and then freeze around them, blocking the refrigerant from being able to absorb that energy.”

 

“Heat pumps are equipped with defrosting technology to keep this from happening, but that usually means the pump's energy is being spent trying to warm those coils up rather than warming up your house. At a certain point, if it's too cold, it becomes a losing battle.”

 

At a certain point of coldness, this becomes all that the heat pump is doing.

 

     In early 2022 Lennox introduced their variable-capacity SL25XPV cold-climate heat pump touting comfort levels in extreme cold comparable to a gas furnace. They projected cost savings of 58% per year. They also introduced their “Quantum™ Coil as a proprietary aluminum alloy designed to weather the harshest elements and provide enduring reliability in its latest heat pump. Exclusive to Lennox, this coil technology allows the unit to have longer lasting sustainability, which preserves the system performance and reduces environmental footprint.”

     Heat pumps utilize a reverse refrigerant cycle (reversing the flow of R22, R410A refrigerant) to gather available heat from outdoors and bring it indoors. Those refrigerants are HFCs that replaced CFCs that had much higher global warming potential (GWPs). HFCs are currently being replaced by refrigerants with further significantly fewer GWPs.

     Efficiency for furnaces and heat pumps is typically measured as Co-efficient of Performance (COP). Learn Metrics HVAC Systems gives some efficiency/COP specs as follows:

 

“Best mini split heat pumps can achieve a 400% efficiency (COP = 4) at 47°F.

 

Average heat pumps will achieve above 200% efficiency (COP = 2 or higher) at 20°F.

 

Best low-temperature heat pumps will achieve 188% efficiency (COP = 1.88) even at 0°F.

 

In below zero temperatures, standard heat pumps COP will fall below 1. However, new mini split heat pumps for cold weather will be able to maintain the efficiency above 100% even at -15°F.”

 

The 2^nd graph below depicts the COP values for cold-climate heat pumps as a function of temperature. Thus, the best mini-split heat pumps can have efficiency of 200% (COP =2) at 0 degrees F. The minimum operating temperature (MOT) for older heat pumps, like my LG model installed in 2018 is 5 degrees F. It is basically useless under that temperature. Better older models have MOT down to about -4 degrees F. The newer models bring MOT down to as low as -22 degrees F. However, it is important to determine at what temperature the model begins to lose efficiency. Mine begins losing efficiency at 14 degrees F, I believe.

 

Source (for both): Learn Metrics 

 

     In Europe and the UK, there have been strong pushes to adopt more heat pumps as the price of natural gas climbed in 2022. The UK has been lagging behind the EU in heat pump deployment. The EU has a goal of deploying 60 million heat pumps by 2030.

 

 Source: European Climate Foundation and the European Heat Pump Association

     Heat pumps can be outfitted to heat water as well as space, which can make water heating more economical to operate than traditional electric or gas hot water heaters.

 

 

Capacitor-Based Heat Pumps in Research for the Future

 

     Most heat pumps rely on compressed gaseous refrigerants, usually hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for heat exchange. As these gases are compressed they heat up and as they are uncompressed they cool down. HFCs replaced chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) which are among the world’s most potent greenhouse gases. However, HFCs are potent greenhouse gases as well. There are some hydrocarbon-based refrigerants, usually some form of propane, butane, or pentane, used as refrigerants as well.

     A new type of heat pump is being researched that has a totally different mechanism for heat exchange. This new type utilizes a capacitor that changes temperature as it's charged and discharged. It has the potential to be very efficient. Recently, researchers in Luxembourg have been working with materials that change temperature in response to electrical fields. This is known as electrocalorics. Layered capacitors that heat up when charged by an electric field and pull heat from the surrounding environment when discharged are utilized in the new solid-state model. According to Ars Technica: “For the electrocaloric device, the researchers created a multilayer capacitor using a lead/scandium/tantalum oxide material. This was crafted into a series of parallel plates with gaps in between them, which allowed fluid to flow through the device.” These experiments showed impressive results, with the potential to develop a long-lasting (potentially 30 years) electrocaloric device that has at least a 50% improvement over previous electrocaloric devices. While the experiments were impressive in determining the limits of electrocalorics, there are many problems to be worked out and this technology seems to be in very early stages.   

 

Heat Pumps for EVs Decrease Winter Range Loss

     The ideal operating temperature range for EVs with lithium-ion batteries is between 50 degrees F and 110 degrees F. In sub-freezing weather, the range of some EVs drops from 10%, which is manageable, to up to 36%, which is undesirable. Heating the inside of the car drains energy from the battery. Lithium-ion batteries of current designs are near their efficiency limits. Only by adding more batteries can the range be extended. This adds significantly to cost and weight. The added weight makes range extension by adding batteries have diminishing returns. Another way to keep from losing winter range is to add a heat pump. The superior efficiency of heat pumps makes them desirable for heating. According to an article in Top Speed: “During cold weather, a heat pump uses heat generated by the motor and battery and redirects it to the interior of the vehicle. This way, the car doesn’t have to use its battery to power a resistor and keep the passengers warm. It’s quite an elegant and simple solution if you think about it.” Colder air and snow-covered roads also produce more drag, which reduces the range a little bit as well.

     Both Hyundai and Tesla are making heat pumps a standard feature on new EVs. Hyundai also features a battery heating system. With the advantages that heat pumps provide to decrease winter range loss, it seems quite likely that they will become standard on all EV models.

 

References:

Here's Why Heat Pumps Need To Become A Standard Feature On Electric Cars. Bruno Maia. Top Speed. March 2023. Here's Why Heat Pumps Need To Become A Standard Feature On Electric Cars (msn.com)

Most Heat Pumps Slow Down in Frigid Cold. New Models Shown at CES Could Change That. Jon Reed. CNET. January 8, 2024. Most Heat Pumps Slow Down in Frigid Cold. New Models Shown at CES Could Change That (msn.com)

US companies are producing heat pumps that work below -20F. Michelle Lewis. December 26, 2022. Electrek. US companies are producing heat pumps that work below -20F (electrek.co)

Capacitor-based heat pumps see big boost in efficiency. John Timmer. Ars Technica. November 16, 2023. Capacitor-based heat pumps see big boost in efficiency | Ars Technica

High cooling performance in a double-loop electrocaloric heat pump. Junning Li, Alvar Torello, Veronika Kovacova, Uros Prah, Ashwath Aravindhan, Torsten Granzow, Tomoyasu Usui, Sakyo Hirose, and Emmanuel Defay. Science. Vol 382, Issue 6672. pp. 801-805. November 16, 2023. High cooling performance in a double-loop electrocaloric heat pump | Science and science.adi5477_sm.pdf

Heat pumps: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2024. Casey Crownhart. January 8, 2024. MIT Technology Review. Heat pumps: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2024 | MIT Technology Review

DOE Announces Leading Heat Pump Manufacturers Successfully Develop Next-generation Prototypes to Withstand Subfreezing Weather. U.S. Dept. of Energy. January 8, 2024. DOE Announces Leading Heat Pump Manufacturers Successfully Develop Next-generation Prototypes to Withstand Subfreezing Weather | Department of Energy

DOE Announces Breakthrough in Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology. U.S. Dept. of Energy. June 17, 2022. DOE Announces Breakthrough in Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology | Department of Energy

Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge. U.S. Dept. of Energy. February, 2022. Residential Cold-Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge (energy.gov)

Octopus Energy introduces new residential heat pumps. Emiliano Bellini. PV Magazine. September 18, 2023.Octopus Energy introduces new residential heat pumps – pv magazine International (pv-magazine.com)

Best Heat Pumps For Cold Climates In 2023 (Down To -22°F). Learn Metrics. Best Heat Pumps For Cold Climates In 2023 (Down To -22°F) (learnmetrics.com)

Lennox Industries Introduces New Cold Climate Heat Pump Focused On Accelerating Environmental Sustainability. Lennox. February 7, 2022. Lennox Industries Introduces New Cold Climate Heat Pump Focused On Accelerating Environmental Sustainability

Europe’s Leap to Heat Pumps: The Socio-Economic and Climate Benefits Unlocked by a Fast Heat Pump Roll-Out. European Climate Foundation and the European Heat Pump Association. April 2023. ECF-Europes-Leap-to-Heat-Pumps-Report_FINAL_April-2023.pdf (europa.eu)

 

At COP28 20 Countries Agreed to Triple Nuclear Power Capacity By 2050: Can It Really Be Done? And Nuclear Woes and Challenges in the U.S.

 

     At the end of 2021 global nuclear power capacity was at about 390 GW. At COP28 in Nov/Dec 2023, 20 countries made an agreement to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050 to about 1170 GW. While that may seem possible on the surface, it also means nuclear deployment must increase manifold. It would be an unprecedented increase. This pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 is full of recognitions and commitments that are rather vague and seem quite aspirational rather than concretely achievable. As the second graph below from the IAEA shows, the biggest historical increase in nuclear energy deployment over an equivalent time period was an increase from about 25 GW to about 340 GW from around 1970 to around 1995. The graph also shows that nuclear deployment has barely budged over the past 30 years, increasing by only about 45 GW. Thus, an increase of 780 GW over the next 26 years will be challenging, to say the least. In fact, over the last 30 years nuclear power deployment has dropped a little in Europe and North America and the only real growth has been in Asia.

 

     In addition to the problem of increasing total nuclear power capacity is the ongoing replacement of retiring capacity, mostly due to age. This means that much more than 780 GW of new capacity will be required by 2050 to reach the COP28 target. The graphs below from the IAEA show planned retirements and the age distribution of deployed nuclear power. The IAEA notes:

 

“About 66% of total operational reactor capacity (257 GW(e), 289 reactors) has been in operation for over 30 years. Over 23% of global operating nuclear capacity (91.2 GW(e), 117 reactors) has been in service for over 40 years, while 1.9% of available capacity (7.3 GW(e), 13 reactors) been operated for over 50 years. The aging fleet highlights the need for new or uprated nuclear capacity to offset planned retirements and contribute to sustainability and global energy security and climate change objectives. Utilities, governments and other stakeholders are investing in long term operation and ageing management programmes for an increasing number of reactors to ensure sustainable operation and a smooth transition to new capacity.”

 

This means that most of the current nuclear capacity, maybe 70%, will be well over 50 years old by 2050. That means that meeting the 2050 goal will require roughly 1000 GW or more of new nuclear power capacity. That seems to me to be a very tall order that will be very difficult to achieve. In 2019 the IAEA put a report of nuclear power deployment forecasts to 2050. This had a low case and a high case. The low case has nuclear power deployment declining to 2040 and then increasing back to just 371 GW by 2050, less than today. The high case put total nuclear deployment at 715 GW. Thus, I would argue that the COP28 agreement seems to be purely aspirational as it would entail increasing nuclear power by 455 GW, a factor exceeding the current total global nuclear deployment, beyond that of the IAEA’s high case of just a couple years previously. At this point, I have to say that the goal does not seem realistic at all.

 

Another IAEA report from 2019 predicts that while global nuclear energy production capacity is likely to stay the same or increase, in North America by 2050 it will either remain more or less constant in the high case or decrease rather drastically in the low case.

 

 

Most Nuclear, Especially Advanced Nuclear is Costing More and Taking Longer to Deploy Than Planned, Especially in the U.S.

 

    Deployment times and costs for nuclear reactors can vary considerably by region. The reasons have to do with regulatory hurdles, workforce competence, cost of labor, and levels of government incentives. A new report released in December 2023 by Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs addresses the uncertainties of the costs and construction duration of new nuclear projects. Advanced nuclear, which is being pursued strongly in North America, is especially hampered in terms of time and cost, with some seemingly insurmountable regulatory costs and hurdles as well as the added costs of new technologies and first-of-a-kind projects. The graphs below from the Columbia paper show some of the numbers associated with nuclear deployments around the world in terms of cost and construction duration. Here are the key findings of the report from the executive summary:

 

● The limited number of new reactor builds in the United States in recent decades and the large number of new designs under development (some of which have never been built anywhere in the world) leave few data points from which to draw defi­nitive conclusions on future nuclear costs.

 

● In countries such as China and India, construction expertise and supply chain efficiencies from ongoing nuclear power project buildouts and energy technology learning as well as lower labor costs, among other factors, have created more competitive economics for nuclear than are currently found in the United States.

 

● Modeling of nuclear energy costs in the US suggests that if the price tag ends up being much higher than the upper limits used in the studies cited, such as above $6,200/kW, new nuclear will play a marginal role, if any, in the US energy transition.

 

● Within the cost range quoted above, nuclear’s ability to play a substantial role in the United States (e.g., 50 gigawatts of deployment) could depend on factors including whether stronger decarbonization policies are enacted; whether other viable ­rm, low-carbon options emerge as competitive alternatives; whether difficulties with siting new transmission lines continue; and/or whether renewable energy expansion faces constraints.

 

● The new 30 percent tax credit in the Inflation Reduction Act available to both renewable and nuclear energy will substantially lower the cost of new nuclear reactors for US utilities.

 

● Internationally, scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change project that lower reactor costs in some emerging countries, in combination with strict climate mitigation policies, could result in very large new nuclear capacity expansion there.

 

● In modeling cases with high variable low-carbon power sources, the need for ­rm sources and storage options may be underestimated in the absence of greater temporal and technical granularity. This practice may omit costs associated with flexibility, market reserve, and storage that could be ameliorated by dispatchable nuclear capacity

 

 

NuScale Cancels Key Project and Downsizes Workforce in Response to Costs and Regulatory Hurdles

 

     One of the most promising advanced nuclear projects in the U.S. involves the company NuScale Power which is developing small modular reactors (SMRs). Unfortunately, in November 2023, the company announced it was abandoning its main project in Idaho where it planned to deploy 12 SMRs. They announced in January 2023 that they had finally obtained approval for the project from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), with, many saying the project should have been approved years earlier and at tens or hundreds of millions of dollars less in cost. Now, in January 2024, NuScale has announced that they are laying off 154 full-time employees, or 28% of its workforce. The loss of the Idaho project and increasing costs led to the company burning through its cash reserves. NuScale was funded by a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2022 with $236 million. NuScale’s stock dropped from $15 per share in August 2022 to $2.54 per share in January 2024. The company launched in 2007 and has invested $1.8 billion so far. While they still plan to pursue the goal of getting from the R&D phase to the commercialization phase, this setback is certainly tragic and will slow U.S. advanced nuclear deployment. Other companies are continuing their plans for SMR deployment. However, detractors are noting that traditional nuclear reactors offer economies of scale that make them cheaper than SMRs. It was previously hoped that SMRs would be commercialized in the late 2020s but now it looks like the mid-2030s is a more realistic estimate.

     Another important reason for the scrapping of the project involves the availability and cost of nuclear fuel to power their SMR design. That fuel is high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), most of which is supplied by Russia. With availability and cost affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Geek Wire reports: “To replace the Russian supply, Ohio-based Centrus Energy Corporation started manufacturing the fuel in November 2023, with plans to scale production this year.”

 

 

References:

Portland-based nuclear reactor company NuScale cuts 28% of workforce, or 154 employees. Lisa Stiffler. Geek Wire. January 8, 2024. Portland-based nuclear reactor company NuScale cuts 28% of workforce, or 154 employees (msn.com)

Amid Global Crises, Nuclear Power Provides Energy Security with Increased Electricity Generation in 2021. Marta M. Gospodarczyk. IAEA Department of Nuclear Energy. July 14, 2022. Amid Global Crises, Nuclear Power Provides Energy Security with Increased Electricity Generation in 2021 | IAEA

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. International Atomic Energy Agency, 2019. 19-00521_RDS-1-39_body.indd (iaea.org)

The Uncertain Costs of New Nuclear Reactors: What Study Estimates Reveal about the Potential for Nuclear in a Decarbonizing World. Dr. Matt Bowen, Emeka Ochu, and Dr. James Glynn. Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia, School of International and Public Affairs. December 2023. QCFNuclearCosts-CGEP_Report_112923.pdf (columbia.edu)

The U.S. Project Meant To Debut Revolutionary Nuclear Reactors Just Fell Apart. Alexander C. Kaufman. Huff Post. November 8, 2023. U.S. Nuclear Reactor Project Crumbles Into Failure | HuffPost Impact

At COP28, Countries Launch Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050, Recognizing the Key Role of Nuclear Energy in Reaching Net Zero. U.S. dept. of Energy. December 1, 2023. At COP28, Countries Launch Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy Capacity by 2050, Recognizing the Key Role of Nuclear Energy in Reaching Net Zero | Department of Energy

The Unprecedented Absurdity and Lies of Donald Trump: Cognitive Dissonance Gone Wild

     I apologize for this political post, and I hate to have to post it, but I believe the dire situation requires it. Doing this is depressing as well, but I believe it should be done.

     I admit I cringe when hear that Donald Trump is leading in polls, any polls. This man has thoroughly proven his incompetence, his corruption, and his authoritarianism. The once honorable Republican party has become a subset of Trump and Trumpism. This man’s propensity to treat immoral adversaries with respect and honorable political rivals with complete derision is not merely shocking, but dishonorable. He has no intentions of playing by the rules, any rules, except his own. He still claims he won an election that dozens of election commissions and courts in dozens of states confirmed that he lost. The people he hired to show that he won the election confirmed that he lost it. Yet, the “Big Lie” persists. Polls in 2021 and 2022 show that between 50% and 70% of Republicans actually believe Trump won. That is quite obviously absurd. The number may be lower now, but I could not find any recent polling. In any case, well over half to 70% or more of Republicans obviously favor him to be the nominee for president in the 2024 election.  

     It is no secret that most leaders around the world, most especially the vast majority of American allies, do not view Trump favorably. Do we really want a leader that our friends don’t like? He had his chance, and he blew it, over and over again. At the beginning of his term many people, including me, were willing to give him a chance to see what he would do. It did not take long for him to disappoint us. The number of people who worked in his administration who now say he is unfit for office is both shocking and unprecedented. Nothing like that has ever occurred in American politics. In addition to this, a large number of prominent politicians in his own Republican party have rejected him on the same grounds. This too is unprecedented.  

     Of course, the rural/urban divide in American politics is real. I live in a rural setting in a mostly rural county in Ohio. My county voted 78% for Trump in 2020. I drive past Trump signs and flags and confederate flags every day, though why someone would be displaying a Confederate flag in Ohio is beyond me. Of course, Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and in 2020 so his popularity is not a real majority. The U.S. is one of the only countries that still has an electoral college and perhaps we should change that. Rural states with low populations are given two senators as are urban states with very high populations. This has given the rural states (Republican strongholds) an outsized number of senators, a big advantage in recent years.

     My own perspective is perhaps interesting. I was never political before Donald Trump. Although I have preferred Democrats by a small margin, I consider myself moderate. I considered myself socially liberal and fiscally more moderate. Who was president did not matter that much to me. I was OK with Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Obama. I’m OK with Biden. I’m not OK with Trump. Not in the least. I am dumbfounded at the spell he holds on American voters. I am no fan of Progressives and often speak out against their ideas. I think Biden should pull away from that contingent. Unfortunately, he may need them to win so he is bound to them in some sense. It’s fairly clear that Biden would not have even run in 2020 but knew that he was the best candidate that could beat Trump. I think it is unfortunate that a man of his age must run to prevent Trump. Age is a factor but Trump is only 3 years younger so it should be a factor for him as well. In fact, I think both the far left and the far right are dangerous. However, I think the MAGA extremists, as Biden calls them, are the most dangerous. I am also appalled by the Heartland Institute’s, other MAGA groups, and Trump loyalists’ Project 2025 plan to stack the government with political appointee loyalists to replace what they see as a “deep state.” There is apparently, a concerted effort to make the U.S. like Orban’s Hungary where media freedom is limited and executive power is consolidated. Pro-Putin Orban is a thorn in the EU’s side, currently, despite his popularity with American conservatives. While there may be some long-term government employees that favor certain positions, perhaps more to the left, I think the whole deep state matter is basically bullshit amplified by Trump. He didn’t drain the swamp. He is the swamp. His idea of government is to be anti-government. It is an abuse of the idea of smaller government championed by Ronald Reagan and a lot of conservatives and libertarians. Now he wants “revenge and retribution.” Basically, he wants to be king. One of his MOs is to be frank and honest about his intentions. There is no reason to believe that if elected he won’t focus on this revenge and retribution as he says he will.

     One of my close neighbors put a picture of Trump on a utility pole and the curve of the pole made it look like he had a Hitler mustache. Down the road a bit, another neighbor mowed a very large FJB into his grass which they have kept up for a few years now. It was heartening to see the neighbor across the road from them to put up Biden-Harris signs before the election. Before the last presidential election, some neighbors put up Trump signs a week or so before the election and then took them down afterward – a more reasonable approach.  

     I have mentioned before that I think the Republican approach to energy is more realistic than the Democrat approach. However, I think that both sides need to be more pragmatic. I worked for about 32 years in the oil & gas industry, which has remained decidedly conservative. I did not state any political beliefs or opinions at work, which I considered to be inappropriate in general and still do for the most part. However, that is not true of others. In one office in which I worked in the late 90s the radio often blared Rush Limbaugh. Once when I walked into a work trailer one morning at a well site in Northeastern Pennsylvania the day after Obama got re-elected in 2012, I was met immediately with a loud question from a born-again co-worker from Louisiana, “Did you vote for that ni%&er?” He did spend much of the rest of the day explaining unconvincingly that he wasn’t really a racist. I always managed to stay quiet about things like politics and religion. The same is not true for a small subset of acquaintances on social media platforms like LinkedIn where they regularly post religion, political extremism, and absurd conspiracy theories. When co-workers, past and present, start talking about FEMA camps and COVID conspiracies I find a way to politely excuse myself, often after telling them I think they are full of shit. Such people are not worth the time to take seriously or to attempt to convince of rationality. They are caught up in cult-like behavior. The most cultish Trumpism got was the Stop-the-Steal movement, which culminated in the January 6 tragedy. Unfortunately, that cult has yet to dissipate.

     The sheer level of corruption this man attempted in the final days of his term is disturbing. He fired many people and hired loyalists to replace them just so he could perpetrate his schemes to change the results of the election. He harassed multiple state election commissions and attempted to coerce them into doing his bidding. Some nearly complied. His vice president did not, although he was perfectly willing in the early days of Stop-the-Steal. He ultimately made the right choice, but he is certainly no hero. He also ran against him in the primary, which is also unprecedented. I am glad, however, when I hear him speak out against Trump. It’s kind of unimaginable that a vice-president once perceived to be very loyal to his boss, is speaking out against him. Trump’s expressed opinions about wounded veterans as “disgusting” and preferring them to be not worthy of being seen, let alone honored, as Generally Kelly noted he did on several occasions, is deeply concerning.

     Chris Christie says it’s fear and ambition that keep other politicians loyal to Trump. He says fear of losing their titles keeps politicians loyal to Trump at risk of him endorsing a rival Republican to primary them. Ambition to be vice president, he says, is what keeps Nikki Haley loyal to Trump. Others face death threats. Indeed, we still have people in the former Trump administration speaking out against him anonymously, due to fear of retribution. Even deep far-right conservatives like Texas rep Chip Roy and Kentucky rep Thomas Massie, who both have endorsed DeSantis, say that it is fear of their own voters that leads to them endorsing Trump. This fear of being primaried by Trump-picked loyalist candidates tends to keep them in line, they say.

     While Mitt Romney says that Biden’s “threat to democracy” argument against Trump is old news and he should take a different approach, I disagree. There is real potential that if Trump is elected and is able to go through with his purge of government, that some of those J6 people will be hired as part of a new Trump administration. After all, they aptly demonstrated their loyalty to him by storming the capital, causing death, injury, property damage, and desecration of U.S. symbols.    

     New polling indicates that fewer people (53%) now believe Trump was responsible for January 6 than in 2021 (60%). It is also disturbing that more Republicans and Independents now believe Biden was unfairly elected than in late 2021. While I think some of the J6 people were sentenced too harshly, the idea that they are patriots or without guilt is disturbing. I think we were much closer to a real bloodbath than many people realize. I also believe the Republican party in general is an accessory to his crime in a sense by not voting to impeach him. Now Trump and some prominent Republican congresspeople are calling the J6 prisoners hostages. Is it getting worse?

 

“Since December 2021, there has been an eight percent drop in Republicans who believe Biden was elected fairly.”

 

“There was even a three percent and six percent drop in independents and Democrats respectively who thought Biden was fairly elected.”

 

It is quite disheartening to me that more Americans than before believe in Donald Trump more than they believe in America. Should we just go ahead and change the name of our nation to Trumpica and accept it? Obviously, the answer is no.

     No matter what one thinks of Biden and his policies, his recent speech at Valley Forge was right on. I don’t agree with all of Biden’s policies, and I don’t disagree with all of the policies of the past Trump administration. I do believe that Trump’s policies are now irrelevant as his failure as a leader presents an imminent danger to our country. I disagree with Trump’s protectionist trade policies which caused some benefit but net economic harm, even if China rigs the system with currency manipulation and excessive subsidization of some industries. That particular position is more concordant with political leftists, who tend to favor protectionism. Protectionism most often is a loss for both parties. I just mention it as an unusual example of policy. Nikki Haley often talks about liking Trump’s policies, while also noting his propensity for unnecessary drama and chaos.

     On the one hand, we have a large number of notable Republicans and conservatives speaking out about the dangers of Trump, with some calling him “Dictator Donald.” On the other hand, we have Republican senators considered to be more mainstream saying it is time to get behind him as the likely Republican nominee. It is such a dissonant condition for a political party, and of course, unprecedented. We also know that he will only hire loyalists to work for him since so many mainstream conservatives have turned against him.

     Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group in his top geopolitical risks for 2024 has the number 1 risk as America vs. Itself. This means that he thinks political division in the U.S. is the biggest geopolitical risk for the entire world through 2024. Ian says: “The United States is already the world’s most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem no matter who wins.” That is a sad state of affairs. Once again, the man responsible for this more than any other is Trump.

     Although some political division has long been prevalent in American politics, it became amplified when Obama first got elected. John Avlon’s very informative 2010 book, Wingnuts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America, shows how new groups arose to oppose Obama, including a man, Donald Trump, who perpetuated the false rumor that Obama was not an American citizen. Oddly, the rumor began among followers of Hillary Clinton when Obama beat her in the primary, but got amplified when Fox News picked it up and ran with it. Avlon, an Independent, was once a speechwriter and campaigner for Rudy Guiliani. During Obama’s terms, the Tea Party rose and groups like the Oath Keepers, ironically formed to prevent a dictatorship. Identity politics and terms like RINO and DINO came to the fore. In any case, the book gives great context for what happened in American politics to lead to the sad state we are in today.

     Frankly, I find it absurd that this man even has a chance, considering all he has done. If he does win, it signifies the decline of America in terms of losing both common sense and basic dignity. If our constituents believe such a person is the worthiest to be a leader, it shows that they are easily deluded and that means we will be in trouble as a country. If our constituents cannot choose a worthy leader, we will decline as a country. There is so much more that I can say in terms of details and examples, but the bottom line is this should be more than enough. I don’t know what else to say. If this guy really cared about America, he would not be running for president. He amplified our political divisiveness to extreme levels. He is always divisive and rarely if ever cooperative or unifying. Please don’t vote for this jerk!

     I do believe we can overcome Trump, Trumpism, and the cult of MAGA-ism. I sure hope more people of importance and regular people like me will speak out against the dangers. More importantly, I hope more and more people will be swayed by these arguments and vote either for Biden or for someone else.  

 Addendum: January 17, 2024

 

Trump the Divider, Trump the Oppressed, Manchin the Equalizer, Cheney the Foreseer, and the Chorus of Ass-Kissers

     It was reported that Trump was advising Maga-Mike Johnson to avoid a bipartisan immigration deal with the Dems. Johnson made the strange statement that now was not the time for a comprehensive immigration deal. What? I thought that was the point of all the recent negotiations – to fix immigration. However, if a deal is reached what then would Trump have to complain about and campaign to fix himself? No, bipartisan success is not in his interest, especially from now until November.

     Cooperation is also not in his interest as in his court case for harassment of a plaintiff after he was judged liable for sexual assault in a civil trial for pushing a woman into a dressing room and grabbing her by the body part he was recorded on tape of bragging about doing to women. Here he felt it necessary to harass the judge as well, after his victory in Iowa, by taunting him to kick him out of the court room. He knows that would increase his claims of political persecution, which always seem to get him more sympathy. He claims witch hunt but perhaps it’s a bitch hunt since he ‘moves on them women} like a bitch,’ except for the plaintiff since she’s not his type.

     Joe Manchin made some important statements this mid-January. The first one that was he loved America too much to vote for Donald Trump. The second was that Biden has moved too far to the left and urged him to move toward the center. Thirdly, he noted after being harassed by the radical group Climate Defiance, he simply suggested that they were deluded but not particularly dangerous.

     While Trump hogs the headlines with his domination of the Republican Party and while he competes with Jesus himself among evangelicals, many who see him as a savior in his own right, others are considering life after MAGA. Chief among those considering the future of conservatives post-Trumpism is Liz Cheney, who bears the scars of Trumps wrath. She has refrained from endorsing any of his Republican challengers so as not to doom them, even though we all know they have little chance. She will likely be among a fairly large group of principled conservatives and past Trump staffers who will endorse Biden, citing as Cheney has that having bad policy is better than losing the Constitution. Kinzinger and Scaramucci will likely endorse Biden. Others will likely continue to speak out against Trump and/or vote for someone else. These include Pence, Barr, Mattis, McMaster, Bolton, Romney, Grisham, Esper, and others. Others yet, are likely on the fence like McConnell, Chao, and probably many others.  

     Early Trump endorsers are seemingly vying for higher ass-kisser status, a special designation conferred by a man who demands fealty and loyalty, or else. Trump has been extraordinarily successful at leveraging fealty. His method of using threat to get his way has long worked for him. Some, like Rubio claim it’s policy that influenced him. Others, like Cruz, Emmer, Stephanik, Burgum, Husted, and Ramaswamy and many others – 169 GOP reps and 19 GOP senators (compared to 23 in both Houses combined for Haley and DeSantis), are likely looking for accolades like administration positions and favored statuses. Those few who have endorsed DeSantis or Haley are now vulnerable to Trump’s wrathful punishments for disloyalty. Oddly, several of those that endorsed DeSantis, are Freedom Caucusers and others of the far-right that may favor MAGA policy but do not favor the MAGA king.

 

 

 

 

Pipeline Approval Delay by FERC Threatens to Ensure Higher Carbon Emissions for Tennessee Valley Authority: Another Example of Damage to Economy and Environment by Environmental Groups

 

     Once again, environmental groups with the goal of reducing carbon emissions are effectively doing the opposite by working hard to oppose a gas-fired power plant that would replace coal-fired power. This is yet another of numerous examples where environmental litigation impedes environmental mitigation.          

     A group of radical environmental organizations filed suit against the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) in June 2023. I don’t use the term ‘radical’ lightly. The plaintiffs include the Center for Biological Diversity, an innocuous-sounding group with a name that hides a history and agenda of radical extremism with the primary goal of filing lawsuits and extracting money from them. Also included is the Sierra Club, once a more benign organization that has in recent years become more radicalized against natural gas in all its forms. The third plaintiff is a group called Appalachian Voices that is involved in anti-fossil fuel activism against both coal and natural gas, as are the others. All of these groups have stated goals of eliminating fossil fuels, the same fossil fuels that currently make up over 80% of our primary energy consumption, and the same fossil fuels that provide affordable and reliable energy compared to comparable intermittent resources. Appalachian Voices lists about $5 million in assets. Sierra Club lists $79 million in assets and Center for Biological Diversity lists $43 million in assets. The total of the three is $123 million in assets, about 2.4% of the TVA’s $51 billion in assets. The environmental groups provide ideas, in particular the idea that fossil fuels must be opposed. Of course, the TVA employs more than 10,000 people and provides retirement to another 19,000 people. They are a wholly federal government-owned corporation. They are also capable of producing around 38GW of electricity at peak. They are one of the country’s biggest power providers, provides power to seven states, and operates 16,000 miles of transmission lines. According to their website, they have invested $17.2 billion “in a cleaner and more diverse energy generation mix since 2013,” and they have a target of 10GW of solar capacity by 2035. Thus, basically, these groups are suing a government-owned entity. As such an entity, it is fairly certain that their commitment to cleaner energy is solid.

     Appalachian Voices brags about stopping the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and delaying and massively increasing the cost of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which is 6 years behind schedule and $3.5 billion over budget due to the efforts of these environmentalist groups. These added costs may help lawyers, but they damage legitimate companies and cause economic damage to the American economy. That is not something to brag about. In addition to that, those delays have also delayed, and in some cases reversed, planned retirements of coal-fired plants and have obviously led to more carbon emissions. Like their co-plaintiffs and other environmental groups that oppose pipelines, they cited the high costs of the project making it uneconomic. Of course, the high costs are due almost entirely to the delays from the lawsuits! To make a rash analogy that’s kind of like breaking someone’s jaw and blaming the person for the inability to fulfill obligations because they have a broken jaw. I do believe strongly in protecting the environment, but I also believe these groups have abused the system, resulting in added costs and other damages to American companies and damage to the American economy as a whole. Perhaps the biggest irony is that in the final analysis, they are not protecting the environment but delaying its protection in many cases.

     Amanda Garcia of the Southern Environmental Law Center, another group that profits heavily off of opposing fossil fuels and has assets of $203 million, noted in an op-ed that Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm recently praised the TVA’s gas plant and pipeline projects as “bridge” to clean energy. Politically, if we assume that the Democrat who runs the energy department sees the projects as vital, it stands to reason that half or more likely more than half of Democrats would agree. We can assume that nearly all Republicans would agree. That makes a minimum of 75% of Americans, and likely much more than that – my guess would be about 85% - that agree the projects are indeed desirable and should be pursued. My question, then, is why should the opinions of 15-25% of the population be given the power to delay and increase costs for what 75-85% of the population desire? Of course, they are also delaying the decarbonization of our energy systems by denying pragmatic relative decarbonization (replacing coal with natural gas) that ensures reliable energy, in pursuit of a more absolute decarbonization (replacing coal with solar, wind, and energy storage) that is unreliable and that would have much higher upfront costs.

     Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company wrote a letter to FERC on December 5, requesting approval for the 32-mile, 30-inch pipeline to deliver gas to the power plant. In the letter, they noted that without timely approval they would not be able to complete the pipeline in time for the planned retirement of the first coal unit of the coal plant by September 2025. They had applied for a FERC permit in July, after the final Environmental Impact Statement was submitted, requesting action by November 1 to keep on schedule. The letter noted: “TGP explained that authorization by that date {November 1} would allow TGP to complete the acquisition of needed rights-of-way and construction of the Cumberland Project in the time frame required by the September 1, 2025 in-service date requested by TVA. The Commission and its staff have completed a thorough review of the proposed Project, including review of environmental issues that began in the pre-filing process for the Project that was opened in November 2021 in Docket No. PF22-2-000 and continued throughout the Application review process.”

 

“While TGP has worked, and continues to work, diligently with affected landowners to acquire the necessary permanent rights-of-way and temporary workspaces for the construction and operation of the Project facilities, as well as with regulatory agencies to acquire other necessary permits and authorizations for the Project, Commission approval of the Project is now critical to avoid delays that threaten the construction and in-service schedule for the Project. Implementation of the Commission’s Order No. 871-B and 18 C.F.R. § 157.23 means that construction of the Project is unlikely to be able to start until at least five months after the Commission issues the certificate. In addition, the construction schedule requires TGP to accommodate narrow tree felling/clearing and construction windows to avoid or minimize impacts to environmental resources.”

 

Thus, we can see that pipeline construction is subject to certain conditions that take time and that involve limited construction seasons for different parts of the project. Both can be delayed significantly by delays in approvals. The environmental groups are well aware of these issues and actively exploit them.

     On January 3, 2024, TVA wrote a letter to FERC, noting that the pipeline in question was not on their December 19 docket and requesting approval of the pipeline project. They noted what follows in their letter to FERC:

 

“Continued delay in the Commission acting on TGP’s Application has the potential to: (a) delay TVA’s retirement of unit 1 of the Cumberland Fossil Plant, which would lead to additional construction, repairs, and maintenance upgrades and costs to maintain reliability and comply with environmental regulatory requirements such as Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Effluent Limitation Guidelines and Clean Water Act Section 316(b) requirements;4 (b) delay TVA’s ability to develop and implement a path to approximately 80% carbon reduction by 2035, and to realize its aspiration to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050;5 and (c) create additional environmental, economic, and reliability risks.6 Further, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) assesses that between 2024 - 2028, TVA’s service territory has high risk of future electricity shortfalls under normal as well as extreme conditions.7 The Cumberland Project is critical to helping TVA meet its current and future customers’ electric supply needs as well as sustaining and enhancing the long-term reliability and resiliency of TVA’s electric grid.”

 

     The environmental groups say that the projects is not in compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) which they call the nation’s bedrock environmental law. Perhaps it is for them since it has been invoked to delay and deny many permits for energy and infrastructure projects. They also noted that the coal plant went offline during the unprecedented Winter Strom Elliot in December 2022 as well as some gas plants, resulting in rolling blackouts for the first time in history for TVA. Of course, it is hard to see how something like solar energy could in any way hope to replace that power in the shortest days of the year that were also overcast due to the storm. The lawsuit goes on to mention the reasons for the NEPA violation:

“But TVA failed to fairly evaluate the things that matter, including the climate-warming impacts of the Plant’s emissions, the viability of carbon-free alternatives, and the cost of mitigating emissions in compliance with the climate objectives of the United States to decarbonize the power sector. TVA also failed to account for game-changing developments, like the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) and the wide-spread failure of TVA’s coal- and gas-fired fleet during Winter Storm Elliott. These failures and others violate NEPA.”

 

They also noted that some members of their organizations own property that the pipeline would cross resulting in environmental damage to their property. I have a 20-inch pipeline going across my property and there are no environmental issues from it of which I am aware. The cleared right-of-way does offer some nice views of the sunset. The usual arguments about erosion and sedimentation are included as well as arguments that the pollution from the gas plant would affect people, never mind the fact that pollution emissions from the gas plant are magnitudes less than the emissions endured for the last 50 years from the coal plant. Emissions such as SO2 and particulates are nearly eliminated, and NOx emissions are less than half or much more from a new gas plant replacing an old coal plant. There is also no coal ash produced by a gas plant. TVA cited much longer time frames (9-11 years as opposed to 2-4 years) and much-increased costs ($500 million minimum) for not proposing renewables, battery storage, and transmission upgrades to replace the coal plant. My guess is that the result would have ended up being far less reliable than the gas plant.

     A supplement to the lawsuit notes that since the pipeline has one company, TVA, that it will sell gas to, if that company decides not to build the plant, then the pipeline will have no purpose. They cited a case in Pennsylvania where trees were cleared for a pipeline that was ultimately not built – of course, due to environmentalist obstruction.

     Utility Dive summarizes the lawsuit as follows: “In the suit, the groups contend the TVA violated the National Environmental Policy Act by failing to adequately consider how the gas-fired power plant would affect the climate, the environment, and power customers, and without fairly evaluating carbon-free energy alternatives.” In essence, it’s the same argument used to oppose every fossil fuel project.

     I and many others have argued for permit reform, specifically for all energy projects: fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy projects, and infrastructure. One part of that reform should be to reduce the power of these groups that represent a minority of Americans to routinely oppose and file suits against virtually every such project. In a way, it is a form of extortion.

 

 

References:

TVA may delay 2,470-MW coal plant shutdown over FERC pipeline inaction. Ehan Howland. Utility Dive. January 4, 2024. TVA may delay 2,470-MW coal plant shutdown over FERC pipeline inaction | Utility Dive

RE: TENNESSEE GAS PIPELINE COMPANY, L.L.C. DOCKET NO. CP22-493-000 REQUEST FOR COMMISSION ACTION. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. January 3, 2024. 20240103-5125_TVA Cumberland FERC Letter 01.03.24.pdf

RE: Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, L.L.C. Docket No. CP22-493-000. Request for Commission Action. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. December 5, 2023. 20231205-5094_Cumberland Project-Request for Commission Action.pdf

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF TENNESSEE NASHVILLE DIVISION. APPALACHIAN VOICES, CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY, and SIERRA CLUB, Plaintiffs, v. TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY, Defendant. Case No. _________. COMPLAINT For Declaratory and Injunctive Relief. 20230614_docket-323-cv-00604_complaint-1.pdf (climatecasechart.com)

Stop Pipelines & Fracked Gas. Appalachian Voices. Website. Stop Pipelines & Fracked Gas > Appalachian Voices (appvoices.org)

Mountain Valley Pipeline. Appalachian Voices. Website. Mountain Valley Pipeline > Appalachian Voices (appvoices.org)

DOE should call TVA gas plans what they are: a bridge to nowhere. Amanda Garcia. Tennessee Lookout. December 14, 2023. DOE should call TVA gas plans what they are: a bridge to nowhere – Tennessee Lookout

Tennessee Valley Authority. Website. Our Service Commitment (tva.com)

APPALACHIAN VOICES’ AND SIERRA CLUB’S SUPPLEMENTAL COMMENT ON THE FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT FOR THE CUMBERLAND PIPELINE. November 14, 2023. 20231114-5099_TGP_supplemental_comment.pdf

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE MIDDLE DISTRICT OF TENNESSEE NASHVILLE DIVISION. APPALACHIAN VOICES, CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY, and SIERRA CLUB, Plaintiffs, v. TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY, Defendant. Case No. 3:23-cv-00604. District Judge Eli J. Richardson. Magistrate Judge Barbara D. Holmes. AMENDED COMPLAINT. For Declaratory and Injunctive Relief. August 8, 2023. 20231114-5099_Attachment 1 - Amended Complaint.pdf

Satellite Monitoring of Land Movement: InSAR Remote Sensing Applications and Improvements

     In recent decades and years scientists have enabled the monitoring of ground movements and ground deformation from space via satellites. The method used is interferometric synthetic aperture radar, or InSAR. According to the USGS: “By bouncing signals from a radar satellite off the ground in successive orbits and looking at the differences between the images, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) can detect small differences in the distance between its position and the ground as the land surface moves—whether up, down, or sideways. InSAR shows spatial patterns of deformation in remarkable detail and, in combination with ground-based monitoring, gives USGS scientists unprecedented insight into a wide range of earth science processes.” Radar waves are used because they penetrate cloud cover and darkness. The resulting shaded relief maps are known as interferograms, and the processing is known as interferometry. By comparing two radar images of a selected area at two different times, changes in land positions can be detected. Hot colors (red) indicate uplift and cool colors (blue) indicate subsidence. Phase differences in the reflected waves account for the changes as the diagrams below show.

 

     An important application for InSAR is measuring land deformation around active volcanoes where such deformation is frequent and extensive. InSAR is very good at detecting land movement around volcanoes because that movement is mostly vertical and InSAR measures mostly vertical movement, as the interferograms below show. However, in the case of earthquakes, many can have predominantly horizontal movement which renders InSAR less effective. One way to account for this has been demonstrated in California where an extensive network of GPS stations has been deployed to help predict and detect earthquakes, allowing for continuous GPS monitoring. Comparing the continuous GPS with InSAR shows that both can monitor ground movement and also be complementary. The continuous GPS from a Continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can better detect changes in time while InSAR can better detect spatial changes. Different wavelength bands for InSAR can offer better resolution for different terrains, for example, vegetated vs. non-vegetated. The 3rd diagram below shows how it was done in a case study from Croatia published in October 2020. In landslide-prone areas InSAR data is typically combined with higher resolution ground-based land movement remote sensing methods including ground-based interferometric radar, Doppler radar and lidar. It is thought that integrating data from these different sources offers the best protection in high-risk areas.

 

 

     Utilization of parallel processing and cloud-based computing have resulted in faster processing times for InSAR data. This has enabled faster predictive capability.

 

     In summary, modern geodetic measurement techniques include radar interferometry (InSAR), global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), light detection and ranging (LiDAR), close-range photogrammetry (CRP), Robotic Total Station (RTS), and digital levelling. The following table shows the different methods and their applications, geographic focus, and data for geodetic monitoring of land deformation from a series of papers presented in a special 2023 issue of the journal Remote Sensing.

 

 

 

NASA’s Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model

     In 2018 NASA’s Goddard Space Center introduced their Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model that enables the prediction of landslides around the globe. Many people are killed by landslides in susceptible areas. Rain is the biggest trigger of landslides. The LHASA model can examine rain–induced landslide threats anywhere around the globe every 30 minutes. Analysis of long-term data has revealed that landslides are often seasonal in different areas. For example, July and August are the highest risk months for landslides in eastern and southern Asia due to its monsoon season and landslide risk peaks in March in Peru.

     “The map below shows 2,085 reported landslides with fatalities from NASA’s Global Landslide Catalog. The model showed more landslide activity in the Southern Andes, East African Rift Zone, Turkey, and Iran than was previously accounted for in the Global Landslide Catalog.”

 

 

The LHASA model integrates satellite-derived and ground-based recent global precipitation data with susceptibility mapping to predict landslides and can be predictive down to a scale of minutes.

 

NI-SAR Satellite Set for Launch in 2024

     A new InSAR satellite is set to be launched in the 1^st quarter of 2024. It is a collaboration between NASA and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). It is called NISAR and will be the first remote sensing InSAR satellite to include two radar frequencies, L-band and S-band. The $1.5 billion satellite is expected to detect land movements as small as 1 centimeter when focused on a small area, with a resolution of 5-10 meters over the whole earth, which it can map 4-6 times per month. “It is designed to observe and measure some of the planet's most complex natural processes, including ecosystem disturbances, ice-sheet collapse, and natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and landslides.” Land subsidence due to groundwater exploitation and compaction due to soft sediments can also be measured by InSAR. Data is expected to be available within a few days for most analyses and within hours when natural disasters occur. In the past, the European Space Agency’s Sentenal-1 constellation of satellites has been a major source of InSAR data.

 

Data Availability: Using Past and Current Data to Protect Assets

     Land movements can be the result of natural processes such as weathering, erosion, and tectonic activity, as well as anthropogenic processes such as mining, construction, and deforestation. Some companies that specialize in remote sensing offer analysis of past and current data to monitor land motion in order to protect assets such as power lines, roads and railways, as well as subsurface assets such as oil, gas, and water pipelines. Satellite data stretched out over the past 10 years is available for analysis. One company, Spottitt, offers such services that include utilizing machine learning to analyze satellite imagery and InSAR for land movement monitoring.

 

Japan Using Satellite Data Processed with AI to Monitor Land Movement to Predict Landslides

     InSAR data requires lots of processing and as mentioned, machine learning and cloud computing have helped to increase processing times. In Japan, Nature Portfolio reports that “by using artificial intelligence (AI) to process data collected by various low-Earth-orbit satellites, the Japanese satellite communications company SKY Perfect JSAT, based in Tokyo, is able to monitor for ground deformation across the entire country, including both cities and regional areas. Accessible via an explorable web portal, the service allows users, such as municipal governments and civil-engineering firms, to keep careful tabs on gradual and sudden ground movements.”

“Raw InSAR data includes observation error, topographic location error, atmospheric delay and other components that require many steps to correct,” adds Takuma Anahara, chief researcher of SKY Perfect JSAT’s Space Intelligence Business Team.”

“SKY Perfect JSAT has turned to AI to overcome this limitation. “We’ve developed an AI-driven statistical analysis and low-computation algorithm that can complete this process and validate the outputs quickly and accurately with minimal expert input,” says Anahara “This allows us to offer the capability at much lower cost across all areas of Japan, not just cities.”

“SKY Perfect JSAT’s InSAR service has been calibrated for urban, rural, and wilderness environments, allowing it to be used for remote landslide monitoring and early warning. The system is already in use by municipal governments, construction companies, airports, etc. The team is now developing the capability further to allow point-by-point monitoring of infrastructure such as bridges and towers, where resolving differential vertical movement is critical.”

“Our InSAR service is a unique and powerful capability that can replace laborious ground-based surveys and extend monitoring to inaccessible areas such as the mountainous regions of Japan,” says Hirata. “At present, we can achieve measurement of changes with accuracy under 10 millimetres, and we’re continually improving our statistical processing to improve this resolution in different environments.”

“This service demonstrates the valuable potential of space observations,” says Hirata. “And it will help reduce uncertainty and increase safety related to landslides and subsidence in Japan.”

Japan is susceptible to landslides due to its degree of mountainous terrain (~75%), high rainfall amounts, and tectonic activity from earthquakes. A July 2021 landslide killed 27 people.

 

References:

An eye in the sky to offer early warning of landslides. An AI-driven, high-resolution satellite monitoring service provides unprecedented coverage and precision for detecting landslides across Japan. Nature Portfolio. October 2023. An eye in the sky to offer early warning of landslides (nature.com)

InSAR—Satellite-based technique captures overall deformation "picture". USGS. Volcano Hazards Program. InSAR—Satellite-based technique captures overall deformation "picture" | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)

Monitoring Ground Deformation from Space. USGS. 2005-3025 (usgs.gov)

Major Earth Satellite to Track Disasters, Effects of Climate Change. Jet Propulsion Laboratory. March 24, 2021. Major Earth Satellite to Track Disasters, Effects of Climate Change (nasa.gov)

Ensure Assets Safety and Reliability with Spottitt's Risk Monitoring and Assessment. Spottitt. Satellite-Based Land & Asset Displacement Monitoring System (spottitt.com)

Estimating Vertical Land Motion from Remote Sensing and In-Situ Observations in the Dubrovnik Area (Croatia): A Multi-Method Case Study. Marijan Grgić, Josip Bender, and Tomislav Bašić. Remote Sens. 2020, 12(21), 3543. Remote Sensing | Free Full-Text | Estimating Vertical Land Motion from Remote Sensing and In-Situ Observations in the Dubrovnik Area (Croatia): A Multi-Method Case Study (mdpi.com)

Landslide detection, monitoring and prediction with remote-sensing techniques. Nicola Casagli, Emanuele Intrieri, Veronica Tofani, Giovanni Gigli & Federico Raspini. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment volume 4, pages51–64 (2023). January 10. 2023. Landslide detection, monitoring and prediction with remote-sensing techniques | Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

Predicting Landslide Hazards in Near Real-Time. NASA Earth Observatory. April 18, 2018. Predicting Landslide Hazards in Near Real-Time (nasa.gov)

Geodetic Monitoring for Land Deformation. Alex Hay-Man Ng, Linlin Ge , Hsing-Chung Chan, and Zheyuan Du. Remote Sens. 2023, 15(1), 283. January 3, 2023. Remote Sensing | Free Full-Text | Geodetic Monitoring for Land Deformation (mdpi.com)

Continuous, semi-automatic monitoring of ground deformation using Sentinel-1 satellites. Federico Raspini, Silvia Bianchini, Andrea Ciampalini, Matteo Del Soldato, Lorenzo Solari, Fabrizio Novali, Sara Del Conte, Alessio Rucci, Alessandro Ferretti & Nicola Casagli. Scientific Reports volume 8, Article number: 7253 (2018). May 8, 2018. Continuous, semi-automatic monitoring of ground deformation using Sentinel-1 satellites | Scientific Reports (nature.com)

NISAR (satellite). Wikipedia. NISAR (satellite) - Wikipedia