Bill Gates’ latest memo in his Gates Notes is about the
realities of addressing climate change. First, he notes that climate change
will not cause humanity’s demise, which means that it is not an existential
threat (as Biden annoyingly liked to say). He says that the doomsday outlook is
causing too much emphasis on short-term emissions reduction goals. Regarding
the upcoming COP30 meeting in Brazil, he notes:
“This is a chance to refocus on the metric that should
count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives. Our
chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the
toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.”
Simply put, he confirms that
poverty and disease are more pressing problems than climate change. The need
for prioritizing funding is urgent as many countries face budget constraints.
He says that we should deal with human problems in proportion to the suffering
they cause. Indeed, we should. For this post, he gives three truths that will
help us prioritize:
Truth #1 – Climate change is a serious problem, but it will
not be the end of civilization
The following graph shows
possible temperature scenarios to 2100.
He notes that in any
scenario, energy use will grow, and that is a good thing for lowering poverty.
“From the standpoint of improving lives, using more
energy is a good thing, because it’s so closely correlated with economic growth.”
Gates is still optimistic
about the ability of technology and innovation to provide more affordable,
cleaner energy and to reduce emissions, if we make the right investments and
adopt supportive policies.
“All countries will be able to construct buildings with
low-carbon cement and steel. Almost all new cars will be electric. Farms will
be more productive and less destructive, using fertilizer created without
generating any emissions. Power grids will deliver clean electricity reliably,
and energy costs will go down.”
He notes the observed
phenomenon of latitude creep, which means higher latitudes will
continue to get warmer and seasons will be longer, which also allows species to
migrate, generally further north in the Northern Hemisphere. As a gardener and
outdoor person, I have noticed this, and you are likely to have noticed too. It
is undeniable. Insects and plants are expanding their biological ranges, as are
diseases. He is optimistic that innovation will curb climate change because it
already has, as shown below.
Gates talks about reducing
the Green Premium, the cost difference between emissions-intensive technology
and emissions-free technology. He thinks we will continue to reduce it, and
technology breakthroughs will lead the way. Below, he shows the five sources of
emissions.
Regarding electricity, he
cites new generation possibilities like geothermal and new advanced
transmission technologies like highly efficient power lines that can transmit
much more electricity with the same materials and space. He sees nuclear
fission getting better with new designs set to come online in the coming years.
He thinks we need to continue to advance both fission and fusion.
Next is manufacturing. He
notes that low emissions, steel, and cement are now possible and may be
economical where clean energy sources are cheap and available. They need to
scale up where possible. He thinks hydrogen might play a big role in
manufacturing eventually, especially if natural hydrogen discoveries pan out. I
am a bit more skeptical at present, but it is possible. He also notes CCUS,
long thought to be the primary way to decarbonize industry, is progressing, albeit
slowly.
Agricultural emissions can be
reduced with solutions like low-emissions fertilizers, which are already
available at low cost. He also notes that additives can help cattle produce
less greenhouse gas emissions. However, I am skeptical since those additives
have also been shown in the past to reduce the amount of meat the cows can
produce, which negatively affects economics and emissions. This could change in
the future, however, with new additives. He notes that rice cultivation can be
tweaked to be less methane emissions-intensive and more productive. He does
acknowledge, however, the difficulty of slowing nitrous oxide emissions from
the ag sector.
Regarding transportation, he
notes that about 25% of cars sold in 2024 were EVs (mostly in China) and that
10% of all vehicles in the world are now EVs. The sector still has many
challenges, including aviation and shipping fuel emissions and battery costs.
These are all being explored, and new innovations are expected in the coming
years.
Building emissions currently
make up 7% of global emissions, but are expected to rise as urbanization and
access to air conditioning continue to increase. Heat pumps are one solution
among several, and new, efficient models are hitting the market with some that
are easy to install. He also cites innovations in building sealants and
super-efficient windows.
Truth #2 – Temperature is not the best way to measure our
progress on climate
Here, he first notes that
quality of life is the key metric for assessing human problems, citing the UN’s
Human Development Index (HDI). He notes that about 1/8 or 12.5% of the global
population lives in the 30 countries with the lowest HDI score. This means that
human welfare is not up to par in a big chunk of the world and needs our help
in the form of aid, education, energy, electricity, healthcare, etc. He also
cites problematic issues with trying to address poor countries' needs by the
often-unfair goal of “leapfrogging” energy to clean sources, bypassing fossil
fuels, which may offer more economical and local solutions. The pressure to
reduce emissions should not eclipse basic needs. I am glad he acknowledges
this.
“Sometimes the pressure comes from outsiders. For
example, multilateral lenders have been pushed by wealthy shareholders to stop
financing fossil fuel projects, with the hope of limiting emissions by leaving
oil, gas, and coal in the ground. This pressure has had almost no impact on
global emissions, but it has made it harder for low-income countries to get
low-interest loans for power plants that would bring reliable electricity to
their homes, schools, and health clinics.”
Truth #3 – Health and prosperity are the best defense
against climate change
Here, he cites data that
suggests economic growth in developing countries will be able to prevent many
deaths that in the future could be attributed to climate change. Improved
agriculture and technologies that can improve crop yields, including better
weather forecasting, can help. Better crop and livestock breeding will also
help.
He notes that deaths due to
heat will rise and indirect deaths due to natural disasters will rise, even
though deaths from cold far outnumber deaths from heat, and direct deaths from
natural disasters continue to drop. Better warning systems and more resilient
buildings have led to fewer direct deaths due to natural disasters. He notes
that people are more likely to die from indirect effects of natural disasters,
such as floods, from cholera, rotavirus, and the diarrhea they cause, rather
than dying from drowning in a flood. Low-income countries are very susceptible
to these indirect killings. Poverty also means a greater likelihood of death
from diseases that rich countries have been able to lower very significantly.
“What I am saying is that we should deal with disease
and extreme weather in proportion to the suffering they cause, and that we
should go after the underlying conditions that leave people vulnerable to them.
While we need to limit the number of extremely hot and cold days, we also need
to make sure that fewer people live in poverty and poor health so that extreme
weather isn’t such a threat to them.”
He cites new technologies,
such as AI, being enabled to help improve healthcare and agriculture. He also
notes that as childhood survival rates increase, people will be content to have
smaller families.
Next in the memo, Gates gives
two priorities in the quest for human welfare, noting that in most cases,
development is adaptation.
Priority #1 - Drive the Green Premium to zero
Here, he suggests that
instead of just emissions reduction pledges at COP30, there should be
representatives of each of the five sectors that report on progress in their
respective sectors and discuss those with their peers in those sectors from
other countries. Below are calculated Green Premiums for concrete, steel, and
aviation fuel.
Priority #2 - Be rigorous about measuring impact
Here, he says that we need to
focus on the highest returns for delivering human welfare. He also notes:
“Vaccines are the undisputed champion of lives saved per
dollar spent.”
He notes that malaria
prevention also offers a great human welfare return on investment. Everything
should be evaluated in terms of human welfare impact. He also says that the
benefits of energy innovation, however, will be mostly in the future:
“Energy innovation is a good buy not because it saves
lives now, but because it will provide cheap clean energy and eventually lower
emissions, which will have large benefits for human welfare in the future.”
The Future
Finally, he likens the
current time to thirty years ago when he wrote a Microsoft memo to focus on the
internet, which was new then. Now, he says, prioritizing actions that lead to
the most human welfare should be our main focus.
According to Bloomberg:
“Speaking on CNBC on Tuesday morning, Gates said his
latest assessment of the climate problem was partly motivated by cuts to aid
budgets made by the Trump administration and other rich countries. “The plea
here is to say, OK, let’s take that very limited money and not have some
partitioned off for particular causes.” He described the US government’s
decision to cut climate and clean energy programs a “huge disappointment.”
“Gates said his views on the necessity of the Paris
climate agreement and the need for companies to lower their emissions have not
changed. “I’m a climate activist, but I’m also a child survival activist,” he
said.
His final statement in the
memo urges prioritization:
“So I urge that community, at COP30 and beyond, to make
a strategic pivot: prioritize the things that have the greatest impact on human
welfare. It’s the best way to ensure that everyone gets a chance to live a
healthy and productive life no matter where they’re born, and no matter what
kind of climate they’re born into.”
References:
Bill
Gates Rejects ‘Doomsday’ View of Climate Change in Memo. Olivia Rudgard.
Bloomberg. October 28, 2025. Bill
Gates Rejects ‘Doomsday’ View of Climate Change in Memo
Three
tough truths about climate: What I want everyone at COP30 to know. Bill Gates.
Gates notes. October 28, 2025. A
warmer world will hurt this group most | Bill Gates
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