I wrote about
natural gas
turbines in my 2022 book Natural Gas and Decarbonization. There I reviewed
the specs and capabilities of the new H-Class turbines built by GE and Siemens,
and Mitsubishi’s J-Series turbines. These are used to power the most efficient
gas-fired plants in the world when in combined cycle mode. When I published my
book in 2022 there were just a couple pilot deployments of these new turbines.
I considered the efficiency, emissions, and economics of these deployments,
including the potential for them to become stranded assets, which I don’t think
is a legitimate concern, even less of a concern now, three years later. We will
likely be using natural gas in high volumes for decades to come. More efficient
designs may come about in the future and as the fleets gradually upgrade, the efficiency
of the fleets as a whole should improve. In addition to that, carbon capture and
sequestration will lower natural gas emissions as a whole through time.
Gas turbines have been around for a long time though they keep evolving to more efficient forms. Some of the early history is shown below from MIT's Gas Turbine Laboratory.
With more coal-fired
plants set to retire by 2030 (although the number could change as the current
energy secretary wants to delay some of these retirements in the interest of
power reliability), there will be a need for new natural gas plant buildout. Pipelines
to deliver the gas to the plants will also be required. Since intermittent renewables
do not have adequate dispatchability, peaking plants will be needed. The growth
in renewables has led to a corresponding growth in peaking plants, which are either
simple cycle gas turbines or reciprocating gas engines. Peaking plants can also
help during extreme weather events. These plants only operate when demand is high,
which negatively affects their economics. There are about 1000 peaking plants
in the U.S. Batteries and other energy storage methods are not yet cost-competitive.
The U.S. is expected to have 5% power demand growth over the next 5 years, about 1% per year. Globally, electricity demand is growing four times faster at about 4% per year. Some estimates put U.S. power demand higher at a 2% annual growth all the way to 2050. Natural gas is expected to meet most of that U.S. demand and will also provide the backup for the renewables that help power that demand. Also, by 2030 there will be gas turbines deployed capable of burning 100% hydrogen as well as 100% ammonia. Gas turbine technology can be adapted to burn many different gaseous and liquid fuels.
Gas turbines of all sizes will be deployed in this effort. Utility Dive recently reported that New APR Energy plans to deploy 100 MW of mobile gas turbines in support of an unnamed data center hyperscaler. This will consist of four 25MW gas turbines in behind-the-meter applications. The company also noted that they were in discussions with several other data center operators for similar projects. APR Energy’s assets, comprised of 30 mobile gas-powered turbines with a combined capacity of 850 MW, were acquired by Fortress Investment Group in January.
“We are excited to deploy New APR Energy’s first 100 MW to a U.S.-based data center. This deployment is a good proof point for our investment thesis for behind-the-meter power demand,” said Chuck Ferry, New APR Energy chairman and CEO. He also serves as CEO of Duostech.
Mitsubishi’s
highly efficient JAC turbines are expected to be deployed soon in peaking
applications for the first time. They can cut emissions by 65% over a coal plant.
“A peaker in Ontario, Canada, and another in Oklahoma,
US, are set to reach commercial operation in the next two to four years — the
first two projects in North America that will use these types of gas turbines
in a peaking application.”
Adopting CCUS for
natural gas power plants and natural gas turbines that power and heat heavy industry
is expected to grow by up to seven times in the U.S. by 2035 according to Bloomberg,
The U.S. already leads the world in CCUS deployments.
Natural Gas Plant Pollutants
While natural gas plants emit far fewer pollutants than coal-fired plants, they still produce significant amounts of NOx, greenhouse gases, and hazardous air pollutants.
The
Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) recommends strengthening regs for these three
and mentions the Biden EPA proposal to increase regulation of NOx:
“Recently, the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) unveiled a proposal to strengthen
pollution limits for… NOx from new gas-fired combustion turbines. By law, the
EPA must finalize these standards by November 2025 and consider comments from
the public when shaping the final standards.”
EDF thinks that emissions of hazardous air pollutants such
as benzene, formaldehyde, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), toluene,
xylenes, and mercury have been underestimated. In particular, they think formaldehyde
emissions have been underestimated. They note the Sierra Club’s argument to this
effect that there is:
“…inherent uncertainty in formaldehyde emission factors
for turbines operating below 80% load.
EPA’s response to this claim was that “gas turbines typically operate at
high loads,” which was based on a statement made in its AP-42 gas turbines
chapter that was last issued in April of 2000.”
Some of those load factors are shown below.
Proximity to the
power plant is the main factor in contaminant risk and environmental justice is
a factor since a higher percentage of disadvantaged communities are proximal to
power plants. Adding more gas turbines can result in a higher density of
pollution sources for a given area. Thus, where gas turbines are deployed is a
major factor in minimizing pollution risks. EDF maps turbine locations with
their online interactive mapping tool which is broken down into state-level data,
Congressional district-level data, and plant/unit data.
“Texas (91.5 million short tons), Florida (77.9 million
short tons), and Pennsylvania (51.2 million short tons) had the highest carbon
dioxide emissions nationwide from gas-fired power plants, according to 2022
data.”
“Texas (37.8 million lbs.), Florida (24.5 million lbs.),
and Michigan (11.8 million lbs.) had the highest NOx pollution from gas-fired
power plants, according to 2022 data.”
“Texas (4.1 million lbs.), Florida (3.3 million lbs.),
and California (1.8 million lbs.) had the highest potential for uncontrolled
formaldehyde pollution from gas-fired power plants in 2022.”
Changes in Supply and Demand in the Gas Turbine Market
Just a few years
ago in 2022, it was considered very difficult to get through the regulatory
hurdles to getting gas combustion turbines approved. The major factor in recent
changes in the market is projected power demand due to AI, onshoring of manufacturing,
and electrification. The lack of demand a few years ago and the surge in demand
now are resulting in increased lead times. Kevin Clark for Power Magazine writes:
“Simple-cycle and combined-cycle GTs are in high demand,
and buyers of F-class, advanced-class, and aero-derivative gas turbines have
been dealing with lead times not seen since the gas boom of the early 2000s.”
“The bottom line: If you’re building a project that
involves a gas turbine, the largest manufacturers say you should be talking to
your OEMs as long as seven or eight years out.”
GE Vernova is currently investing hundreds of millions of
dollars to ramp up turbine manufacturing. They had 14.1 GW in gas turbine
orders by September 2024, about double through the same period of 2023. AI data
centers are a big part of the increase.
References:
Clearing
the Air. The need and opportunity to reduce unhealthy pollution from gas-fired
power plants and industrial facilities. Environmental Defense Fund. Overview
- Environmental Defense Fund
Why
gas turbines remain vital to US power generation. Andrea Willige. Mitsubishi
Heavy Industries. Spectra. January 28, 2025. Why
gas turbines remain vital to US power generation | Spectra by MHI
Natural
Gas and Decarbonization. Key Component and Enabler of the Lower Carbon,
Reasonable Cost Energy Systems of the Future. Strategies for the 2020s and
Beyond. Kent C. Stewart. Amazon Publishing. March 2022.
The
Natural Gas Turbine Crisis. Advait Arun. Heatmap. February 26, 2025. The Natural Gas
Turbine Crisis - Heatmap News
Early
Gas Turbine History. Gas Turbine Laboratory. Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. Early Gas
Turbine History — MIT Gas Turbine Laboratory
Why
the energy transition needs peaker plants. Madeleine North. Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries. Spectra. December 12, 2024. Why
the energy transition needs peaker plants | Spectra by MHI
Mapping
Gas-Fired Pollution. Environmental Defense Fund. Map - Environmental Defense Fund
US is
Set to Expand Global Lead in Capturing Carbon. Brenna Casey. Bloomberg New
Energy Finance. July 15, 2024. US
is Set to Expand Global Lead in Capturing Carbon | BloombergNEF
Formaldehyde
from Gas-Fired Turbines. Environmental Defense Fund. September 10, 2024. hmt3x2w4f2y8grc4g117qsmy1i1x23cc.pdf
Long
lead times are dooming some proposed gas plant projects. Kevin Clark. Power Magazine. February 20,
2025. Long
lead times are dooming some proposed gas plant projects - Power Engineering
Use of natural gas-fired generation differs in the United States by technology and region. Energy Information Administration. February 22, 2024. Use of natural gas-fired generation differs in the United States by technology and region - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Fortress backs behind-the-meter gas turbines to support AI hyperscalers. Robert Walton. Utility Dive. February 25, 2025. Fortress backs behind-the-meter gas turbines to support AI hyperscalers | Utility Dive
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