Texas power authority ERCOT forecasts a whopping 152 GW of new power load demand by 2030. In order to be able to provide that load in a dispatchable form, most of the load is expected to come from new natural gas power projects. In order to speed up meeting that anticipated demand, voters approved the creation of the $5 billion Texas Energy Fund (TEF) to invest in loans for plant developers. Utility Dive notes: “In April, ERCOT had active generation interconnection requests totaling 346 GW, with solar representing 155 GW of the queue, followed by 141 GW of battery storage. Gas made up just 15 GW.” The anti-natural gas Sierra Club thinks that the solar (much of which probably won’t be built per usual interconnection queue trends and snafus) plus storage could meet that demand. That is, of course, highly unlikely due to the need for baseload and dispatchable energy which intermittent resources cannot provide, and storage is too costly to ramp up enough to fill the void. Skimping on baseload and dispatchable supply would also make the already vulnerable ERCOT system even more vulnerable to extreme weather events. They do need to focus as well on weatherizing their natural gas power systems after the disastrous February 2021 blackout which led to 250 human deaths. It is still uncertain whether the system can weather another bout of extreme cold. Though unlikely to occur, they need to be thoroughly prepared so that such a tragedy never occurs again.
ERCOT noted in
April that the expected load increases are expected to come from artificial
intelligence, data centers, industrial electrification including from oil and
gas, and hydrogen and electric vehicles. ERCOT’s CEO Pablo Vegas was confident
about ERCOT’s ability to accommodate new demand: “We have the ability in our
economy to connect dispatchable resources faster than anyplace else in the
country.” He cited updated regional transmission planning rules as a major
boon for that accommodation. He noted that some renewables projects can get
added to the grid faster if they accept curtailment, presumably until transmission
and other upgrades are made to resolve congestion issues. This is part of ERCOT’s
“connect and manage” strategy. ERCOT is also looking at distributed resources
and for opportunities to optimize demand response and energy efficiency. It is
noted, however, that 3-6 years is the general time frame for implementing transmission
upgrades. That brings these changes up to the 2030 doorstep. ERCOT is looking
into establishing “generation hubs” to best locate generation to meet expected
load growth. They are also considering increasing their operating voltage
level:
“We’re now undertaking a study of how a 765-kV system
can support longer-term growth projections more efficiently and with lower cost
over time than what our current 345-kV planning norms have been,” Vegas
said.
Asked about the potential of dynamic line rating to
enhance the grid and expand infrastructure, ERCOT noted:
“Dynamic line rating is something we’ve done here in
Texas for years,” Vegas said. “Many of the large transmission service providers
and a good majority of the transmission lines in the state of Texas today are
dynamically line rated, and we get the benefit of that throughout the year.”
Utility Dive
notes that developers, including ENGIE and Vistra, representing more than 41 GW
of mostly gas-fired generation projects, have indicated that they will apply
for low-interest loans via the TEF. The response to the loans has been very
good.
ENGIE has
plans to build a 483 MW gas-fired peaking plant that is expected to switch over
to hydrogen when the switch becomes viable in the future. Vistra proposed
peaking plants in West Texas to help support Permian Basin oil and gas activity.
They also plan to convert a coal plant to gas and to add additional summer and
winter gas capacity at other gas plants. Vistra noted that their plans depend
on market certainty. Texas regulators have been implementing market reforms to
encourage long-term investment. They have been improving grid reliability, including
ancillary services. They continue to work on a performance credit mechanism
(PCM) to help power generators. They also continue to work on a reliability
standard to ensure grid reliability during extreme weather events. This should
be prioritized to prevent another tragedy.
References:
Vistra, ENGIE and other developers move to tap $5B
Texas Energy Fund for 41 GW of gas-fired projects. Robert Walton. Utility Dive.
June 3, 2024. Vistra,
ENGIE and other developers move to tap $5B Texas Energy Fund for 41 GW of
gas-fired projects | Utility Dive
ERCOT launches new planning efforts as 2030 load
growth projections soar 40 GW in a year. Robert Walton. Utility Dive. April 24,
2024. ERCOT
launches new planning efforts as 2030 load growth projections soar 40 GW in a
year | Utility Dive
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