The Solar Boom of the Mid-2020s: Solar Manufacturing Output/Oversupply, and Record Incentivization Mean Lower Prices to Deploy Compared to Wind

     Solar energy deployment is about to boom, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. Generous incentives provided by government spending such as the IRA have led to a glut of solar panels, bringing down prices. The EIA just forecasted record U.S. growth in solar deployment over the next couple of years. Specifically, they predicted that “U.S. solar power generation will grow 75% from 163 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2023 to 286 billion kWh in 2025.” That is an unprecedented rate of growth. I am a bit skeptical that it will happen that fast but many of the prerequisites are in place, so a boom is likely and imminent.  

 

     The IRA is projected to basically double solar, wind, and battery deployment compared to no IRA. By July 2023, one year into the IRA, Climate Power U.S. made the following graphic to show solar impacts:

 

     The graph below from Rocky Mountain Institute shows that since the implementation of the IRA, battery manufacturing and solar manufacturing have led growth:

 

     The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that: “Global annual renewable capacity additions increased by almost 50% to nearly 510 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, the fastest growth rate in the past two decades.” This growth was led by China, who commissioned as much solar in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022. They also report that “the global power mix will be transformed by 2028.” China will remain the biggest solar deployer. Another snippet from the IEA’s report: Renewables 2023, With Forecasts to 2028, notes that oversupply is here:

“In 2023, spot prices for solar PV modules declined by almost 50% year-onyear, with manufacturing capacity reaching three times 2021 levels. The current manufacturing capacity under construction indicates that the global supply solar PV will reach 1 100 GW at the end of 2024, with potential output expected to be three times the current forecast for demand. Despite unprecedented PV manufacturing expansion in the United States and India driven by policy support, China is expected to maintain its 80-95% share of global supply chains (depending on the manufacturing segment). Although developing domestic PV manufacturing will increase the security of supply and bring economic benefits to local communities, replacing imports with more expensive production in the United States, India and the European Union will increase the cost of overall PV deployment in these markets.”

     An article in Business Insider about the IEA report notes that: “an estimated 45 gigawatts of modules in the US and 90 gigawatts in the EU had piled up, nearly twice the forecast installations for 2024.” I wonder if this glut of domestically produced panels will remain due to the higher costs of U.S. panels compared to those from China and Southeast Asia. China is still expected to retain 85% of the expansion of global solar panel manufacturing capacity through 2028. It should perhaps be noted that as before much of this manufacturing will be powered by coal. The report notes that the U.S., India, and other ASEAN countries are upping their output to try and compete with China’s monopoly. IEA also noted: “To survive in such a competitive market, manufacturers are focusing on cost-cutting and innovation. Large, vertically integrated companies will have an advantage, as they are able to control costs across the entire value chain.”

     Another advantage for solar in addition to lowering deployment costs is the speed of deployment. Solar farms can be constructed quickly. This can help reduce integration challenges, costs, and time. As the following graph from the IEA report shows, it is solar that will lead renewable energy additions by a big margin as wind additions are much smaller. That means the reliability issues associated with more solar power on grids will increase. Record deployment of battery storage will help a little as will transmission expansion and upgrades. It should be interesting to see how reliable our power grids are in 2028 and what our power costs are. From the report it looks like China, the EU, the U.S., and India in that order are poised to lead the renewables, mostly solar, boom to 2028.

 

     The IEA also notes that most of the revisions from the 2022 report have been upward. This suggests that the boom is indeed likely and imminent. Solar was revised upward by about 710GW (in capacity), with about 610GW of that capacity coming from China (85+%). The report predicts no wind boom, although there were very slight upward revisions, again mostly in China. Offshore wind, in particular, is facing economic issues that will slow down deployment both in the U.S. where there is no real supply chain, and in the U.K., where there is. Those economic issues will affect solar as well, but they will be offset by cheaper panels. The following graph from the report shows the dominance of solar deployment expected. However, this is capacity, so in terms of actual generation solar should be cut by about 50% based on average capacity factors for solar (about 17.5%) and wind (about 35%). I wish such forecasts were capacity-weighted so that they show more realistic data. Even if this is done, the boom will still be a solar boom, not a wind boom.

     One thing that could dampen the solar boom, especially in the U.S., is higher grid connection costs for solar. These costs have essentially doubled since 2020. Longer wait times in interconnection queues from three years in 2015 to five years in 2022. Both of these issues, higher costs and longer waits, are due to the need for grid and network upgrades. While these problems are being addressed, it is not certain how fast they can be implemented. 

 

 

References:

 

Solar and wind to lead growth of U.S. power generation for the next two years. Energy Information Administration. Today In Energy. January 16, 2024. Solar and wind to lead growth of U.S. power generation for the next two years - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

It’s the IRA’s First Birthday. Here Are Five Areas Where Progress Is Piling Up. Hannah Perkins,  Adam Aston, and Vindhya Tripathi. Rocky Mountain Institute. August 16, 2023. It’s the IRA’s First Birthday. Here Are Five Areas Where Progress Is Piling Up. - RMI

ONE YEAR OF OUR CLEAN ENERGY BOOM: THE 170,606 (AND COUNTING) NEW CLEAN ENERGY JOBS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. UPDATED: JULY 25, 2023. Climate Power US. Clean Energy Boom Anniversary Report (climatepower.us)

Solar modules are piling up in warehouses as a massive supply glut has slashed prices by half, IEA says. Filip De Mott. January 16, 2024. Business Insider. Solar Modules Are Piling up in Warehouses As Supply Glut Slashes Prices (businessinsider.com)

Renewables 2023: Analysis and forecast to 2028. International Energy Agency. Revised, January 2024. Renewables 2023 (windows.net)

NREL Forecasts Gas-Fired Power Capacity Will Grow Significantly to 2050 but Utilization Rates Will Drop Significantly: If That is to Be the Case, More Pipeline Capacity Will be Needed in the Near-Term and More Natural Gas Assets Will Be Stranded Sooner, Resulting in Losses for Utilities and Consumers

     The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) produced a report in December 2023 that confirms that even under a 95% decarbonization (mid-case) scenario, U.S. natural gas-fired electricity capacity will increase by a minimum of 130 GW by 2050. That amounts to an average of 4.81GW per year of natural-gas-fired capacity growth. However, less and less of that capacity is expected to be utilized through time under these scenarios.  The current policies scenario has natural gas-fired capacity increasing by 200GW, or 7.41GW per year. Specifically, the report highlights the following regarding natural gas-fired capacity:

“Natural gas capacity continues to expand. In the Mid-case with current policies, natural gas capacity increases by 200 GW through 2050, whereas it increases by 130 GW in the Mid-case with 95% net decarbonization imposed.”

“In later years, fossil generators without carbon capture play a reduced role in providing generation, but a larger role in providing firm capacity. By 2050, uncontrolled fossil generators (natural gas, coal, and oil without carbon capture and storage) provide only 14% of total generation in the Mid-case (1% through 24% across all scenarios), but 47% of total firm capacity (16% through 56% across all scenarios).”

While the capacity is set to increase, the capacity factor, or utilization rate, for natural gas is set to drop significantly. That suggests that pipeline capacity will be adequate in the long-term but what about the near-term?  

The scenario is dependent on carbon capture and storage ramping up significantly over the next few decades. Perhaps, the takeaway from this report by the nation’s “renewable” energy lab during an administration that strongly supports deep decarbonization, is that even under those scenarios, we will need to expand gas-fired capacity. These scenarios also assume that some older natural gas-fired capacity will be retired, and some will be utilized less so additional new capacity will have to take over those losses as well.

     In the 95% decarbonization by 2050 scenario natural gas capacity will not be reduced significantly until the mid-2040s. Under that scenario, solar will increase by about 30 times what it is now, and wind will increase by about 6 times what it is now. Those are very tall orders and I’ll believe it when I see it.

     Basically, these data are saying: Yes, build that advanced combined-cycle power plant because we really need it in the near-term for reliability, but expect to be forced to run it less and less as time goes on and expect to lose money from it. That will increase costs for utilities, which they will pass on to consumers. This is in addition to the very high upfront costs for wind, solar, storage, CCS, hydrogen, and other new technologies that utilities and consumers will have to bear. A fair chunk of the IRA has already been bit into by inflation. In any case, none of this will be easy or smooth sailing.

 

 

How Much More Natural Gas and Pipeline Capacity Would Be Required in the Near Term and for How Long?

 

     Under the 95% decarbonization scenario natural gas utilization will peak around 2025, next year. That seems difficult since record natural gas use is fairly assured for 2024 and it will have less than two years to start dropping, with deep drops expected from 2027-2030. If the peak of natural gas use is pushed back a mere 5-8 years, which seems quite plausible to me, then we will struggle with infrastructure adequacy. Using the avg. 2022 capacity factor for combined-cycle natural gas-fired plants (65.6%) and 2020 numbers for total gas power burn per total natural gas capacity one can rough calculate that the avg. annual growth in gas-fired capacity will require about 555MMCF per day more gas per year, or 5.55 BCF/day per decade, if gas utilization continues to grow. I hope I have this correct so don’t hold me to it. Just to supply that would require nearly 3 pipelines the size of the Mountain Valley Pipeline (2BCF per day max capacity) per decade. When the MVP pipeline finally comes online, presumably in 2024, it will have taken nearly a decade since permits were first applied for in 2015. We will need nearly three of those per decade to cover the 95% decarbonization scenario, on average. As we know from massive opposition to pipelines, that would be much easier said than done. That increase in capacity is perfectly doable as the avg. natural gas state-to-state transmission pipeline capacity increases have been about 11.2BCF/day per year over the past decade (from 2011 through 2022). Only 897MMCF of capacity was added in 2022, the lowest since 1995, according to the EIA. However, that will have to compete with projected increases for LNG exports of 10-15BCF/day over the next decade. Through 2022 the US exported about 11BCF/day of LNG, or about 10% of US total gas production. If that is to double as predicted it will require about 11 BCF of new pipeline capacity, some of which is now available or will be available in the Haynesville and Permian areas closer to export terminals. It is easier to build pipelines in those states. However, expanded natural gas power capacity will likely happen more in colder, more northern, and more power-hungry areas like the U.S. Northeast and Midwest, where pipelines have had the most difficulty being built. Additionally, some U.S. gas producers in the Appalachian region would like to export gas as LNG from the East Coast as only one small export terminal exports from there, Cove Point. They would like to do this to get better premiums for their gas. However, that plan will get significant push-back if it ever gets seriously pursued. The natural gas supply is there to increase exports and domestic power. However, in about a decade, the volumes from the Southern regions may exhibit some depletion, especially as more gas is exported from those reserves. The Appalachian region, however, will likely still have plenty of reserves. That is actually good for electricity consumers in the Northeast since the pipeline bottlenecks keep local gas prices low which in turn keeps electricity prices low as well since gas is the main source of electricity in the region.  

     Gas storage capacity may have to grow a bit as well. Plans are in place to add gas storage capacity in Texas to help power the ERCOT region that has experienced difficulties due to cold weather in recent years. Natural gas infrastructure and power plants also need to be adequately weatherized in all regions in order to be able to withstand cold snaps. Some overbuilding of both storage and pipeline capacity is one way to achieve resource adequacy in high demand periods.

     As I write this (January 15, 2024) we may be experiencing record natural gas consumption. Yesterday, according to Reuters:

 

“U.S. gas demand, including exports, will reach 164.6 bcfd on Jan. 15 and 171.9 bcfd on Jan. 16, according to LSEG.”

 

“Those daily demand forecasts would top the current all-time high of 162.5 bcfd set in December 2022 during Winter Storm Elliott, federal energy data from S&P Global Commodities Insights showed.”

 

“In Texas, ERCOT forecast power demand would peak at around 85,564 megawatts (MW) on Jan. 16 at around 8 a.m. local time, which would top the current all-time peak of 85,508 MW set in August 2023.”

 

Additionally, there will be a very similar event occurring in the same areas within a week as another polar vortex drops down into the U.S. so we may be looking at 4 or 5 days of record natural gas consumption. If gas plants and infrastructure stay operational this should be no problem as storage levels are more than high enough to accommodate. The only issue could be the usual issues in the Northeast where local pipeline capacity is inadequate so that more expensive, more polluting, and higher carbon emissions fuel oil will likely be burned instead of natural gas.

     The bottom line here are that these fast decarbonization scenarios are highly dependent on many things: quick and vast increases in solar, wind, storage, hydrogen, CCS, energy transition minerals mining, electricity transmission, and grid upgrades. These energy sources and technologies can be expanded but I am highly skeptical of the rates of expansion given in these scenarios. In addition, the utilities will be forced to strand more natural gas assets and under-utilize many of their most efficient natural gas resources. Let’s see where we’re at in a couple years. If Republicans take power in the U.S., either at the Presidential or Congressional level, it is likely that some of these plans will be slowed down, which in the long run is probably a good thing, if one considers electrical reliability and cost to consumers. The faster decarbonization, the more risk there is to reliability, the higher the costs will be to consumers, and the more intense will be the upheaval from local opposition to these expansion projects. It is hard to reconcile these rather unsettling facts with the aspiration for quick and deep decarbonization. Additionally, our dependence on China will increase drastically.  

 Addendum 01/16/2024

     Since the EIA came put with new projections today for energy sources on the U.S. power grid through 2025, I will compare them to the NREL projections. I had noted in mid-2023 that natural gas additions (in real generation, not capacity) were higher than projected for the first half of 2023, while solar and wind additions were less than projected. This was due to supply chain issues and other issues that slowed down renewables deployment. However, as EIA notes, wind and solar projects often come online near the end of the calendar year, which seems to be the case for 2023. For the nest two years they note:

“Solar is the fastest-growing renewable source because of the larger capacity additions and favorable tax credits policies. Planned solar projects increase solar capacity operated by the electric power sector 38% from 95 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2023 to 131 GW by the end of 2024. We expect wind capacity to stay relatively flat at 156 GW by the end of 2024, compared with 149 GW in December 2023.”

Since solar is the big growth engine for renewables through 2024, it should be noted that capacity factors (utilization rate capabilities) for solar are much better in the South, Southeast, Southwest, and West, and not so good in the Northeast and Midwest. Thus, solar will have very little effect in those high power consumption areas in the winter. 2024 is expected to be the first year that wind and solar will lead new generation growth in terms of actual generation. The EIA predicts: “As a result of new solar projects coming on line this year, we forecast that U.S. solar power generation will grow 75% from 163 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2023 to 286 billion kWh in 2025. We expect that wind power generation will grow 11% from 430 billion kWh in 2023 to 476 billion kWh in 2025.” That is an absolutely massive and unprecedented amount of new solar generation in a short time period. I will believe it when I see it. It should be interesting to see how this new generation affects grid reliability and power costs. I know my own electricity bill went up by nearly 30% in 2023 which is difficult for me. I also have rooftop solar so I know how little it contributes in the winter months.

 

     Meanwhile, in Texas, it is hoped that the failures of the Texas natural gas system in 2021 have been fixed, so that power and heat will remain flowing. Fossil fuel hawk David Blackmon pointed out in an article for the Telegraph: “The state’s generation mix taken from ERCOT’s app at 7:19am. Monday {Jan. 15} tells that story pretty clearly. What we see is 0 per cent contribution from solar, 0.8 per cent from power storage, and just 6.8 per cent from wind. Meanwhile, the “fossil fuels” so detested by the state’s legacy media sites were kicking in 84.9 per cent of total generation, with a whopping 67.2 per cent coming from the state’s natural gas industry.” ERCOT requested energy conservation from 6AM to 10AM CST. They also mentioned “unseasonably low wind conditions” while also acknowledging the expected low contributions from wind in the winter.

I may have more addendums to this post in the days ahead to show what is happening with this current extended two-pronged cold weather event. 

Last Addendum: January 21

     For the 2nd day of ERCOT's low-margin cold weather event on Tuesday, January 16, it was solar generation and wind generation that ensured power availability. Record demand occurred on Monday and was covered by fossil generation, but Tuesday also had near-record demand which was helped much by the sun. It was a sunny day and solar generation was virtually absent the day before, with 20% of afternoon generation provided by solar on Tuesday. Excess solar generation also helped to charge batteries. Wind also helped the night before, accounting for 30% of generation. Thus, the conclusion that should be reached is that if it is windy and sunny enough (never really a given), then those resources can contribute significantly to adequate reserve margins. One might say that ERCOT got lucky. However, there was likely enough fossil generation to be adequate without wind and solar. If the state moves to make fossil generation less available, that would put future difficult weather situations at the mercy of sunniness and windiness. ERCOT noted that this weather event was the state's second-longest winter storm in the last 15 years and the third coldest. ERCOt noted: "This is the first time we've seen operational days significantly affected by the amount of solar during a winter storm." However, it should be noted that this weather event was much less severe than the February 2021 event in terms of time, coldness, and wind/solar availability. On the one hand, it shows that wind and solar can indeed be helpful. On the other hand, it does not change the fact that there is no guarantee of that happening.   

 

References:

U.S. gas-fired capacity to grow, even under 95% carbon reduction scenario: NREL. Ethan Howland. Utility Dive. January 12, 2024. US gas-fired capacity to grow, even under 95% carbon reduction scenario: NREL | Utility Dive

2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook. Primary Authors: Pieter Gagnon, An Pham, and Wesley Cole. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Technical Report. NREL/TP-6A40-87724. December 2023. 2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook (nrel.gov)

Frigid temps cut US natural gas supply as demand soars, Texas faces possible shortfall. Scott DiSavino. Reuters. January 14, 2024. Frigid temps cut US natural gas supply as demand soars, Texas faces possible shortfall (msn.com)

Natural gas pipeline capacity additions between states are the lowest since 1995. Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Weekly Update. February 23, 2023.  Natural Gas Weekly Update (eia.gov)

The Texas power grid is on the verge of another fatal collapse. Green energy is absent. David Blackmon. THe Telegraph. January 16, 2024. The Texas power grid is on the verge of another fatal collapse. Green energy is absent (msn.com)

Solar and wind to lead growth of U.S. power generation for the next two years. Energy Information Administration. Today In Energy. January 16, 2024. Solar and wind to lead growth of U.S. power generation for the next two years - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

How Texas' power grid weathered the latest freeze. Jacob Knutsen. Axios. January 20, 2024. How Texas' power grid weathered the latest freeze (msn.com) 

The Continued Prevalence of Black Lung Disease Among Coal Miners: A Preventable Tragedy and Yet Another Reason to Move Away from Coal: Silica Dust is the New Culprit. (July 2018, revised January 2024)

 

     A graphic on the Mine Safety and Health Administration website notes that since 1968 there have been 76,000 deaths from Black Lung disease at a cost of $45 billion in Federal compensation. Black lung disease, or pneumoconiosis, includes a series of maladies caused by long-term chronic exposure to coal dust and silica dust, which scars lung tissue. This black particulate matter can coat the lungs causing difficulty in breathing and eventually death. The deadliest form or advanced phase of black lung is a malady called progressive massive fibrosis (PMF) or complicated black lung. The National Institute Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) announced in February that there have been 416 confirmed cases of PMF in central Appalachia from 2013 to 2017. Since that study 154 new cases have been confirmed. That is a huge uptick, and it shows that the disease is not slowing down as it was thought to be in the 1990s. Out of 50,000 coal miners still working, 1%, or 1 out of 100 (of that total as some of those w/PMF may no longer be working) have the worst form of black lung, and presumably, many more have lesser versions heading toward PMF. That is concerning. Perhaps most concerning is that 5% of all veteran miners and 10% of those with more than 25 years of mining experience in central Appalachia have PMF which is the highest level ever recorded. More than 20% of miners in Appalachia have been diagnosed with some form of the disease. That is rather astounding. Fortunately, since then a lesser percentage of miners have been diagnosed, likely due to regulations of the past. However, as the graph below shows, since around 2011 there has indeed been an uptick in diagnoses. 

Source: MSHA Needs to Improve Efforts to Protect Coal Miners from Respirable Crystalline Silica. U.S. Department of Labor: Office of Inspector General. November 12, 2020. https://www.oig.dol.gov/public/reports/oa/2021/05-21-001-06-001.pdf

     The new data showing the rising PMF black lung cases suggests two things to some health researchers: 1) it would be considered a serious health crisis if it occurred in other industries, and 2) the new data show that dust control regulation and/or enforcement and/or fines have been inadequate.

 

 

The Respiratory Dust Rule of 2014

 

     The Coal Mine Dust Rule was first put into effect in 2014. The Mine, Safety, and Health Administration (MSHA), a branch of the U.S. Dept. of Labor, explains this ‘respirable dust rule.’ First implemented in August 2014, it required an initial year of continuous dust sampling in mines and certification every three years of samplers. This showed that compliance with the planned reductions was achievable. Phase III took effect in August 2016 and requires lower limits for coal mine dust in the mines and at air intakes. The limit for dust in the mines dropped from 2mg/cubic meter to 1.5 mg/cubic meter. The initial proposal was to drop it to 1 mg/cubic meter as recommended by NIOSH. Negotiations over 3-1/2 years with coal producers and politicians led to the compromise. This was the first time there was any implementation of a regulation against coal dust for 45 years. The previous law in 1969 made eliminating black lung a national goal. The rate of contracting the disease did drop in subsequent years as better mining ventilation systems became standard, water-spraying dust control was widely implemented, and monitoring was required. The level of black lung was cut by nearly 60% from the 1970’s to the 1990’s. That was a clear regulatory success in terms of health outcomes. Then the level flattened and has been back on the rise in recent years. In studies, a rise was first noted in 2007, a general rise was noted in 2012, and a bigger rise in 2016. 

     The MSHA calls the respiratory dust rule “a historic step forward in the effort to end black lung disease.” NIOSH researchers stated that “Enhancement and diligent enforcement of the 2014 standards remains critical for reversing these trends” The mining industry strongly opposed the rule with the National Mining Association and coal producer Murray Energy filing lawsuits. Murray Energy claimed that MSHA “clearly seeks to destroy the coal industry and the thousands of jobs that it provides.” However, the Trump MSHA with former coal executive David Zatezalo now in charge, seeks to ‘reform’ the rule, first gathering their own data in support of their presumed idea of reducing required sampling frequency and “accommodating less costly methods.” He insists they do not seek to roll back the rule, only to tweak it, although it has been labeled by MSHA as a ‘deregulatory’ action which has raised eyebrows. In April Trump’s MSHA submitted the draft request for information about the rule titled Regulatory Reform of Existing Standards and Regulations: Retrospective Study of Respirable Coal Mine Dust Rule.

 

Cheating on Sampling and Limiting Benefits to Affected Miners

     In 1998 there was an expose’ by a Louisville newspaper that found extensive cheating on mine dust samples by coal producers in Kentucky. A few years ago, there was a case of admission of guilt in cheating on water samples taken for coal companies in West Virginia. These and other cases show that there is a need for regulatory enforcement. The same paper reported in 2007 on the initial resurgence of black lung. More recently, there have been several indictments for people from a few mines in Western Kentucky where some whistleblower miners told of routine manipulation of dust samples at the threat of harassment and/or job loss. This was at two Armstrong Coal mines between 2014 and 2017, Armstrong Coal has since gone bankrupt. Those charged include a section foreman, a safety director, and a superintendent. Armstrong Coal is named as an "unindicted co-conspirator." One might speculate that there was some 'pushback' against the new federal rule at least at those mines. Of course, when one company or group in a company conspires to avoid implementing compliance to a regulation and gets caught, then it makes all those who do comply look bad as well in a sense. In the case of the very well-known dangers of black lung, cheating seems particularly devious. The Ohio Valley Resource article referenced below is a good summary of the cases.

     Other expose's have shown doctors retained by coal companies had sought to limit black lung benefits to miners and even now there are severe limits in choosing doctors in Kentucky. The requirement is for the disease to be diagnosed only by a small group of certified pulmonologists, lung specialists, rather than radiologists. Radiologists say they are perfectly qualified to diagnose the malady. This means that it could take over a year for people to even be seen by lung specialists. Since early detection is key to mitigating the effects of black lung, this is a delay that certainly could negatively affect health outcomes.

     All the data suggest that black lung can be significantly reduced – simply by adequate regulation, enforcement, and corporate accountability through fines and inspections. Regardless of the economics of coal producers, at 76,000 dead, over 10,000 ill, and $45 billion and counting - this is a no-brainer.

 

 

Update: Dec. 19, 2018: “Slope Mining” and the Silica Dust it Produces is Probably the Main Culprit in Recent Upticks of Black Lung and Silicosis Among Coal Miners

 

     According to a news segment by NPR which was included in a Frontline/NPR TV special, there is some additional very interesting info. In recent years as coal seams are mined out, there has been more cutting through non-coal rock, rock containing high amounts of silica dust. Silica dust is strongly suspected of being much more damaging to the lungs than just coal dust. The Obama-era regs sought to address silica dust by addressing overall dust rates, which would be an improvement but not a drastic one for overall exposure to black lung-causing dust. The miners interviewed noted that this “cutting rock,” also known as “slope mining,” has definitely increased and so too has the silica dust to which they were exposed. Trump’s MSHA chief publicly acknowledged that silica dust is suspected to be the culprit in increased black lung but also has privately said in contradiction that the link is not yet proven. The silica dust is regulated by other regulatory agencies, particularly OSHA. Other industries regulate silica dust via OSHA, but the mines have kept the MSHA regs. A big factor that may miss the increased exposure is that sampling rates are probably inadequate. Even though mines now use third parties to do the sampling the rates of sampling are likely inadequate. The miners that operate the mining machines cutting rock also say that the dust is so heavy that it clogs up dust masks making it hard to breathe and some mines don’t even require dust masks. Mine vents may be seen by the mine operators to be enough to mitigate the problem, but this is fairly obviously not the case. The latest increases in black lung, PMF, and silicosis (another disease that causes death and debilitation) are likely due mainly to silica dust has been accurately described as a regulatory failure. Basically, with the increase in slope mining and the subsequent production of silica dust, “putting miners back to work” basically means hastening their suffering and death.

     It is perhaps ironic that Murray Energy CEO Robert Murray, who started out as a miner and mining engineer, died of black lung. Murray also spent a lot of time fighting against regulations for the coal industry, including regulations meant to address black lung. However, he did live to be 80 years of age. Many others did not and will not live that long. According to a 2018 article in Med Page Today the CDC determined that:

“The overall number of coal workers dying of black lung disease, known medically as coal-workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP), decreased steadily from 1999 to 2016 -- a high of 409 workers in 1999 to a low of 112 in 2016.”

“But during this period, the mean years of potential life lost to life expectancy increased by 55.6%, from 8.1 years of life lost to 12.6 years per decedent. This increase was mostly observed in the years 2003 to 2016.”

“The researchers noted that the decline in the age-adjusted CWP death rate might be explained, in part, by the decline in employment in the mining industry.”

     As the caption from the picture below shows, other actions within a mine, such as roof bolting can increase exposure to silica dust.

 

Addressing Black Lung and Silicosis Going Forward, Particularly the Dangers of Silica

     An audit by the U.S. Dept. of Labor’s Office of the Inspector General, published in November 2020 made some conclusions that confirmed the dangers of silica dust, the inadequacies of silica exposure limits, enforcement of those limits, and sampling protocols. The specific conclusions are as follows:

MSHA's silica exposure limit is out of date. A significant body of evidence shows that lowering the silica limit would be a major factor in preventing coal workers’ deaths and illnesses caused by silica exposure. Even though MSHA has known its silica limit did not align with current scientific recommended limits, it continued to maintain essentially the same silica limit established in the 1960s. As a result, workers in coal mines with silica levels above recommended limits continue to be at risk of developing life-threatening health problems.

MSHA cannot issue fines for excess silica exposures alone. Instead, MSHA’s exposure limit for silica is tied to its exposure limit for respirable coal mine dust. Thus, violating MSHA’s silica limit alone but not its coal dust limit, does not result in a citation or fine to deter future violations. A separate standard for silica would allow MSHA to issue citations and monetary penalties for violating its silica limit to better protect miners from this toxic mineral.

MSHA's silica sampling protocols may be too infrequent to be sufficiently protective. Since MSHA is required by the MINE Act to inspect underground coal mines quarterly and surface mines semiannually, MSHA only sampled mines for silica levels during these periodic inspections. However, silica levels fluctuate frequently. Changes in geology and movement of personnel within mines mean that miners’ exposure to silica may change on a daily, if not hourly basis.

The audit also made the following recommendations based on those conclusions:

1. Adopt a lower legal exposure limit for silica in coal mines based on recent scientific evidence.

2. Establish a separate standard for silica that allows MSHA to issue a citation and monetary penalty when violations of its silica exposure limit occur.

3. Enhance its sampling program to increase the frequency of inspector samples where needed (e.g., by implementing a risk-based approach

     Research conducted by the University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health led to the publishing of the first new pathology standards for black lung disease in over 50 years in December 2023. They concluded, as expected, that excessive exposure to silica dust was the culprit. Unfortunately, they also concluded that compared to the black lung disease of the past which took longer to develop, the effects of silica dust progress much more rapidly. These days there are cases that develop within five or six years or less, compared to the decades it took to develop black lung in the past. The bottom line and the main problem, they concluded, is that MSHA regulations allow miners to inhale twice as much silica as do OSHA regulations. The study compared PMF based on three types: “coal-type, mixed-type and silica-type based on the microscopic characteristics of the lung nodules.” What they found was that the coal-type and the mixed-type were declining but the silica-type was increasing. Additional research has confirmed this. The evidence is now quite clear that silica-based PMF with a much faster rate of progression is overtaking coal-based PMF and new regulations should be adopted and enforced as soon as possible to account for that so miners will be protected.

     A new rule is currently under consideration to bring MSHA standards up to OSHA standards. Hearings regarding the new rule, known currently as Lowering Miners' Exposure to Respirable Crystalline Silica and Improving Respiratory Protection were held in August 2023. Again, this is a no-brainer. In reality, the horrible effects of silica dust have been known for many decades, perhaps over a century. People working with metal, nonmetal, stone, sand, and gravel are also exposed to high levels of silica dust and die from silicosis, and the new rule under consideration should help them as well. In fact, this rule is perhaps 50-100 years behind when it should have been implemented. NIOSH reported that some miners in West Virginia have more severe forms of black lung in their 30’s and 40’s. This is no doubt likely due to silica dust. NIOSH recommended cutting allowable limits of silica dust back in 1974, 50 years ago, but lobbying from the coal industry prevented it. One of the University of Chicago researchers noted that “he thinks masking against dust is the least effective means of protection, and it can cause communication problems in the workplace. Preventing dust from being in the atmosphere, whether by watering it down or through better ventilation, is safer.”

     Fortunately, MSHA has stepped up enforcement with its Silica Enforcement Initiative. The initiative has four components: inspections, sampling, compliance assistance, and miners’ rights. This includes more spot inspections at coal and non-metals mines, more reviews of ventilation and roof control plans, more overall sampling, more sampling in overburden removal, shaft construction, slope construction, extended cuts, cross cuts, and educating miners of their rights.   

     The graphic below shows some sampling data for respirable crystalline silica from different industries:

Source: Respirable Crystalline Silica: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. Mine Safety and Health Administration. 2023. Respirable Crystalline Silica | Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA)

     In conclusion, it should be said that inadequacies in the laws, particularly laws relating to exposure to silica dust in the mining industry are very clear and abhorrent examples of an occupational health failure that could have and should have been addressed many years ago. The ruining of lives in the past can’t be changed but prevention of these harms in the future can be changed. There should be no more delays.

 

 

Source: USA Today

References:

 

Trump Wants to Weaken Coal Miner Protections as Black Lung Makes a Comeback – by Mark Hand in ThinkProgress, July 20, 2018. Trump wants to weaken coal miner protections as black lung disease makes a comeback – ThinkProgress

Black Lung Rate Hits 25-Year High In Appalachian Coal Mining States – by Howard Berkes, in NPR.org, July 19, 2018. Black Lung Rate Hits 25-Year High In Appalachian Coal Mining States : NPR

Respirable Dust Rule: A Historic Step Forward in the Effort to End Black Lung Disease – by U.S. Dept. of Labor – Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) (website) – 2014-2017. Respirable Dust Rule: A Historic Step Forward in the Effort to End Black Lung Disease | Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA)

Black Lung Study Finds Biggest Cluster Ever of Fatal Coal Miners' Disease – by Howard Berkes & Adelina Lancianese, in NPR (All Things Considered) – Feb. 6. 2018. Black Lung Study Finds Biggest Cluster Ever Of Fatal Coal Miners' Disease : NPR

A Scourge for Coal Miners Stages a Brutal Comeback – by Ken Ward Jr. – in Yale Environment 360, Nov. 11, 2014.

Federal Prosecutor Charges Coal Company with Faking Dust Samples Amid Black Lung Surge - by Jeff Young and Becca Schimmel, in Ohio Valley Resource, July 11, 2018. Federal Prosecutor Charges Coal Company With Faking Dust Samples Amid Black Lung Surge (lpm.org)

MSHA Needs to Improve Efforts to Protect Coal Miners from Respirable Crystalline Silica. U.S. Department of Labor: Office of Inspector General. November 12, 2020. https://www.oig.dol.gov/public/reports/oa/2021/05-21-001-06-001.pdf

Unearthing pathology of recent rise in black lung disease. Rob Mitchum. University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health. UIC Today. December 6, 2023. Unearthing pathology of recent rise in black lung disease  | UIC today

CDC: Coal Workers With Black Lung Disease Are Dying Earlier. Salynn Boyles. Med Page Today. August 3, 2018. CDC: Coal Workers With Black Lung Disease Are Dying Earlier | MedPage Today

Not your grandfather's black lung: Federal rule seeks to save coal miners from silica dust. Eduardo Cuevas. USA Today. September 25, 2023. Silica dust can be deadly for coal miners. This new rule hopes to help (usatoday.com)

Silica Enforcement Initiative. Mine Safety and Health Administration. Silica Enforcement Initiative | Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA)

Respirable Crystalline Silica: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. Mine Safety and Health Administration. 2023. Respirable Crystalline Silica | Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA)

Lowering Miners' Exposure to Respirable Crystalline Silica and Improving Respiratory Protection: A Proposed Rule by the Mine Safety and Health Administration on 07/13/2023. Federal Register. Federal Register :: Lowering Miners' Exposure to Respirable Crystalline Silica and Improving Respiratory Protection

New Heat Pump Designs and Applications: Cold-Climate Heat Pumps, Capacitor-Based Heat Pump Research, and Heat Pumps for EVs That Can Reduce Winter Range Loss

 

     Heat pumps have some serious limitations, but that appears to be changing as new models come on the market that can operate efficiently at lower temperatures. I have an air-source heat pump in my house. It is great for air conditioning. My cost for A/C is barely noticeable. However, with an instantaneous nearly 30% rise in power costs for my region and provider and my own difficulty making money lately, I can really feel all power cost increases as an acute pain in the wallet. I have had to decrease my winter thermostat to 62 degrees F and increase my summer thermostat to 78 degrees F. 

     Another thing of which I am acutely aware is that below an outside temperature of about 10-15 degrees F for a length of time, my heat pump works inefficiently. I have to supplement with other electric heat. I will likely struggle with this over the next few weeks as high temps in the 20s and low temps in the single digits are forecast for several days ahead. To be honest, it is no fun. One strategy that helps is to raise the thermostat during the early evening to build up heat in the house so it will remain longer. As predicted, my heat pump is indeed saving me over $500 per year in power costs compared to my previous electric furnace. At an installation cost of $5000 in late 2018, I calculate that after this winter I will have saved over $3000 compared to my previous furnace and by 2027 or 2028, my installation costs will have paid for the system with 2-10 years or more of operating life remaining. Lucky for me, when I eventually need a new one, it will be one with much better low-temperature performance.

 

 

Cold-Climate Heat Pumps

 

     Fortunately, there are new air-source heat pump models that are much more efficient in lower temperatures. Electrek reported at the end of 2022 that Johnson Controls developed an air-source heat pump prototype that can operate well at temperatures as low as -20 degrees F. This was developed as part of the DOE’s Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge. The DOE is aiming to commercialize some of these models soon, putting them on the market in 2024. Other companies including Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Rheem, and Bosch are participating. Trane developed a prototype that can work at -23 degrees F. More recently, companies Daikin, Midea, and Johnson Controls were added. Those who buy can also take advantage of the Energy Efficient Tax Credit 25C tax credits.

     The DOE writes in the Cold-Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) Technology Challenge factsheet: “Space conditioning and water heating consume over 40% of the nation’s primary energy and are a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Electric heat pumps (HPs), which extract heat from the air and ground, are an efficient alternative to fuel-fired space conditioning and water heating equipment. However, the performance of conventional HPs declines in colder climates, which have high space heating demands. In recent years, HVAC manufacturers have developed specialized cold-climate heat pumps (CCHPs) which incorporate advanced designs to operate with greater capacity and efficiency at low outdoor temperatures (below 32°F).” Space conditioning accounts for about 46% of all building greenhouse gas emissions, 42% of all building energy bills, and 56% of all household energy bills.

     The DOE effort involves two types: increasing the efficiency of models operating at 5 degrees F and models with successful operation at -15 degrees F. The DOE reported in June 2022 that American heat pump manufacturer Lennox International became the first to develop a next-generation electric heat pump as part of the challenge. It was reported that the Lennox “prototype delivers 100% heating at 5°F at double the efficiency, and 70% to 80% heating at -5°F and -10°F. DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory validated the performance and efficiency of Lennox’s prototype.”

     Here is a good explanation from an article in CNET for why heat pumps slow down and work less efficiently in cold weather:

 

“The heat pump is cycling refrigerant through coils outside of your home, trying to pick up what thermal energy is available in the air. When it gets too cold, water in the air starts to condense on the coils and then freeze around them, blocking the refrigerant from being able to absorb that energy.”

 

“Heat pumps are equipped with defrosting technology to keep this from happening, but that usually means the pump's energy is being spent trying to warm those coils up rather than warming up your house. At a certain point, if it's too cold, it becomes a losing battle.”

 

At a certain point of coldness, this becomes all that the heat pump is doing.

 

     In early 2022 Lennox introduced their variable-capacity SL25XPV cold-climate heat pump touting comfort levels in extreme cold comparable to a gas furnace. They projected cost savings of 58% per year. They also introduced their “Quantum™ Coil as a proprietary aluminum alloy designed to weather the harshest elements and provide enduring reliability in its latest heat pump. Exclusive to Lennox, this coil technology allows the unit to have longer lasting sustainability, which preserves the system performance and reduces environmental footprint.”

     Heat pumps utilize a reverse refrigerant cycle (reversing the flow of R22, R410A refrigerant) to gather available heat from outdoors and bring it indoors. Those refrigerants are HFCs that replaced CFCs that had much higher global warming potential (GWPs). HFCs are currently being replaced by refrigerants with further significantly fewer GWPs.

     Efficiency for furnaces and heat pumps is typically measured as Co-efficient of Performance (COP). Learn Metrics HVAC Systems gives some efficiency/COP specs as follows:

 

“Best mini split heat pumps can achieve a 400% efficiency (COP = 4) at 47°F.

 

Average heat pumps will achieve above 200% efficiency (COP = 2 or higher) at 20°F.

 

Best low-temperature heat pumps will achieve 188% efficiency (COP = 1.88) even at 0°F.

 

In below zero temperatures, standard heat pumps COP will fall below 1. However, new mini split heat pumps for cold weather will be able to maintain the efficiency above 100% even at -15°F.”

 

The 2^nd graph below depicts the COP values for cold-climate heat pumps as a function of temperature. Thus, the best mini-split heat pumps can have efficiency of 200% (COP =2) at 0 degrees F. The minimum operating temperature (MOT) for older heat pumps, like my LG model installed in 2018 is 5 degrees F. It is basically useless under that temperature. Better older models have MOT down to about -4 degrees F. The newer models bring MOT down to as low as -22 degrees F. However, it is important to determine at what temperature the model begins to lose efficiency. Mine begins losing efficiency at 14 degrees F, I believe.

 

Source (for both): Learn Metrics 

 

     In Europe and the UK, there have been strong pushes to adopt more heat pumps as the price of natural gas climbed in 2022. The UK has been lagging behind the EU in heat pump deployment. The EU has a goal of deploying 60 million heat pumps by 2030.

 

 Source: European Climate Foundation and the European Heat Pump Association

     Heat pumps can be outfitted to heat water as well as space, which can make water heating more economical to operate than traditional electric or gas hot water heaters.

 

 

Capacitor-Based Heat Pumps in Research for the Future

 

     Most heat pumps rely on compressed gaseous refrigerants, usually hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) for heat exchange. As these gases are compressed they heat up and as they are uncompressed they cool down. HFCs replaced chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) which are among the world’s most potent greenhouse gases. However, HFCs are potent greenhouse gases as well. There are some hydrocarbon-based refrigerants, usually some form of propane, butane, or pentane, used as refrigerants as well.

     A new type of heat pump is being researched that has a totally different mechanism for heat exchange. This new type utilizes a capacitor that changes temperature as it's charged and discharged. It has the potential to be very efficient. Recently, researchers in Luxembourg have been working with materials that change temperature in response to electrical fields. This is known as electrocalorics. Layered capacitors that heat up when charged by an electric field and pull heat from the surrounding environment when discharged are utilized in the new solid-state model. According to Ars Technica: “For the electrocaloric device, the researchers created a multilayer capacitor using a lead/scandium/tantalum oxide material. This was crafted into a series of parallel plates with gaps in between them, which allowed fluid to flow through the device.” These experiments showed impressive results, with the potential to develop a long-lasting (potentially 30 years) electrocaloric device that has at least a 50% improvement over previous electrocaloric devices. While the experiments were impressive in determining the limits of electrocalorics, there are many problems to be worked out and this technology seems to be in very early stages.   

 

Heat Pumps for EVs Decrease Winter Range Loss

     The ideal operating temperature range for EVs with lithium-ion batteries is between 50 degrees F and 110 degrees F. In sub-freezing weather, the range of some EVs drops from 10%, which is manageable, to up to 36%, which is undesirable. Heating the inside of the car drains energy from the battery. Lithium-ion batteries of current designs are near their efficiency limits. Only by adding more batteries can the range be extended. This adds significantly to cost and weight. The added weight makes range extension by adding batteries have diminishing returns. Another way to keep from losing winter range is to add a heat pump. The superior efficiency of heat pumps makes them desirable for heating. According to an article in Top Speed: “During cold weather, a heat pump uses heat generated by the motor and battery and redirects it to the interior of the vehicle. This way, the car doesn’t have to use its battery to power a resistor and keep the passengers warm. It’s quite an elegant and simple solution if you think about it.” Colder air and snow-covered roads also produce more drag, which reduces the range a little bit as well.

     Both Hyundai and Tesla are making heat pumps a standard feature on new EVs. Hyundai also features a battery heating system. With the advantages that heat pumps provide to decrease winter range loss, it seems quite likely that they will become standard on all EV models.

 

References:

Here's Why Heat Pumps Need To Become A Standard Feature On Electric Cars. Bruno Maia. Top Speed. March 2023. Here's Why Heat Pumps Need To Become A Standard Feature On Electric Cars (msn.com)

Most Heat Pumps Slow Down in Frigid Cold. New Models Shown at CES Could Change That. Jon Reed. CNET. January 8, 2024. Most Heat Pumps Slow Down in Frigid Cold. New Models Shown at CES Could Change That (msn.com)

US companies are producing heat pumps that work below -20F. Michelle Lewis. December 26, 2022. Electrek. US companies are producing heat pumps that work below -20F (electrek.co)

Capacitor-based heat pumps see big boost in efficiency. John Timmer. Ars Technica. November 16, 2023. Capacitor-based heat pumps see big boost in efficiency | Ars Technica

High cooling performance in a double-loop electrocaloric heat pump. Junning Li, Alvar Torello, Veronika Kovacova, Uros Prah, Ashwath Aravindhan, Torsten Granzow, Tomoyasu Usui, Sakyo Hirose, and Emmanuel Defay. Science. Vol 382, Issue 6672. pp. 801-805. November 16, 2023. High cooling performance in a double-loop electrocaloric heat pump | Science and science.adi5477_sm.pdf

Heat pumps: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2024. Casey Crownhart. January 8, 2024. MIT Technology Review. Heat pumps: 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2024 | MIT Technology Review

DOE Announces Leading Heat Pump Manufacturers Successfully Develop Next-generation Prototypes to Withstand Subfreezing Weather. U.S. Dept. of Energy. January 8, 2024. DOE Announces Leading Heat Pump Manufacturers Successfully Develop Next-generation Prototypes to Withstand Subfreezing Weather | Department of Energy

DOE Announces Breakthrough in Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology. U.S. Dept. of Energy. June 17, 2022. DOE Announces Breakthrough in Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology | Department of Energy

Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge. U.S. Dept. of Energy. February, 2022. Residential Cold-Climate Heat Pump Technology Challenge (energy.gov)

Octopus Energy introduces new residential heat pumps. Emiliano Bellini. PV Magazine. September 18, 2023.Octopus Energy introduces new residential heat pumps – pv magazine International (pv-magazine.com)

Best Heat Pumps For Cold Climates In 2023 (Down To -22°F). Learn Metrics. Best Heat Pumps For Cold Climates In 2023 (Down To -22°F) (learnmetrics.com)

Lennox Industries Introduces New Cold Climate Heat Pump Focused On Accelerating Environmental Sustainability. Lennox. February 7, 2022. Lennox Industries Introduces New Cold Climate Heat Pump Focused On Accelerating Environmental Sustainability

Europe’s Leap to Heat Pumps: The Socio-Economic and Climate Benefits Unlocked by a Fast Heat Pump Roll-Out. European Climate Foundation and the European Heat Pump Association. April 2023. ECF-Europes-Leap-to-Heat-Pumps-Report_FINAL_April-2023.pdf (europa.eu)