Sanctioned Tankers are a Safety and Environmental Hazard: Ghost Fleets are Extensions of Criminal Networks: “Stateless and Beyond Substandard”

     Salty seawater enhances the process of rusting or oxidation. Steel ship hulls rust, which reduces their lifespan.  Many of the tankers used to transport sanctioned oil are substandard. It was reported that some vessels used to transport Venezuelan oil that were seized by U.S. authorities were in such bad shape that they couldn’t enter U.S. ports. The Coast Guard is dispatching inspection and repair teams. One message from the Coast Guard described them as "stateless and beyond substandard."

     The U.S has seized four ghost fleet tankers off the coast of Venezuela, with one fleeing after it tried to change its affiliation to Russia. It was captured in the North Atlantic near Europe. 

     DHS chief Kristi Noem noted:

"The ghost fleets will not outrun justice. They will not hide under false claims of nationality.”

“The Coast Guard will seize sanctioned oil tankers, enforce U.S. and international law, and eliminate these funding streams for illicit activity including narco-terrorism.”

     I think this enforcement action is a good idea. These ships are endangering the ocean with higher chances for spills and accidents, especially as they change routes, hide by turning off transponders (which resulted in one destructive collision), and ship-to-ship oil transfers.  

“There are hundreds of such vessels, and often they are in terrible shape, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. They’re likely to be declined entry into a U.S. port if they don’t meet its safety standards or there’s risk of a spill,” he said.

“They tend to be at the end of their service life — old, in poor condition,” Cancian said.

     The Coast Guard is seeking more personnel who can inspect and repair the ships.

     The Washington Post also reported this week that 11 tankers have evaded the U.S. blockade. Ten of the tankers are loaded with oil or naptha (which is used to help heavy Venezuelan crude flow through pipelines). It is estimated that these tankers are collectively carrying the equivalent of 9.4 million barrels of oil. Six were in the Caribbean, others were out to sea, and one was along the Colombian coast. The blockade, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio called a “quarantine” to apply leverage to the current Venezuelan regime. In addition to evading sanctions on Venezuela, some of the ships are also defying sanctions on Russia and Iran. I am in agreement that this sanctions-evasion network needs to be dismantled.

“The ships’ apparent success in skirting the blockade — while carrying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of oil — raises questions about the effectiveness of the blockade, said Gregory Brew, an international energy analyst with the Eurasia group.

“If this is a tool that the U.S. wants to use to maintain a degree of control or influence over Caracas, it’s a tool that they have to demonstrate can be used effectively and consistently,” Brew said.

“Another analyst said the number of ships that have gotten through is probably an indication of how many shipowners are willing to take extraordinary risks.

“It’s very difficult to have a 100 percent blockade,” said Jorge Leon, the head of geopolitical analysis for Rystad Energy, a research and consultancy firm.

“He said a blockade largely aims to deter defiance through seizures and other shows of force.

     One of the tankers, Russia’s Sea Maverick, is carrying 380,000 barrels of diluent (to get oil to flow better), Russian naphtha. Another goal of the blockade is to put Russia, and likely Iran, out of business in Venezuela, a goal I support.

     According to Bloomberg:

“Last year, Russia was sending an average of roughly 30,000 barrels a day of naphtha to Venezuela, far more than any other country, Vortexa data shows. That has since fizzled to zero. More than half of Venezuela’s roughly 1 million barrels a day of oil production is pumped from its Orinoco Belt region, which yields heavy crude that must be diluted for export to countries including China, one of the top buyers of Venezuelan crude.”

“The US has signaled that American supplies of light crude will replace Russian naphtha, though the details and timeline have yet to be determined.”

“US diluent (light crude oil) will flow into Venezuela, as required, to mix, upgrade, and optimize the production and transport of Venezuela’s very heavy (high viscosity) crude oil,” the Energy Department said in a fact sheet released on Wednesday.

“The US previously served as Venezuela’s dominant naphtha supplier. In 2018, just before the US imposed significant sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, all of Caracas’s imports were from the US Gulf Coast via trading houses including Reliance Industries Ltd., Citgo Petroleum Corp.’s LDC Supply Trading, Vitol Group and Trafigura.”

“More recently, Chevron appears to have sent the diluent as part of a so-called cargo swap, where oil products replace cash as tax on Venezuelan crude.”

“But US President Donald Trump last year revoked a license for some energy companies, including Chevron Corp., to do work in the country, leading Venezuela to turn to Russia for naphtha supplies. Even after the license was reinstated, Caracas continued to source the diluent almost exclusively from Moscow, in an apparent effort to strengthen economic ties.”

     Since then, U.S. naptha supplies are very high, and producers would appreciate a return to Venezuelan sales.

 

References:

 

Some sanctioned vessels seized by the US are in such poor condition that they can't enter US ports: report: 'Beyond substandard'. Demian Bio. January 9, 2026. Some sanctioned vessels seized by the US are in such poor condition that they can't enter US ports: report: 'Beyond substandard'

Coast Guard prepares for influx of seized ‘ghost fleet’ oil tankers. Tara Copp. Washington Post. January 9, 2026. U.S. Coast Guard prepares for influx of seized ‘ghost fleet’ oil tankers - The Washington Post

Drifting tanker reveals major hurdle for Trump plan to revive Venezuela’s oil. Mia Gindis. Bloomberg. January 9, 2026. Drifting tanker reveals major hurdle for Trump plan to revive Venezuela’s oil

11 tankers under U.S. sanctions defy blockade in Venezuela, satellite imagery indicates. Samuel Oakford, Joyce Sohyun Lee, Susannah George and Amaya Verde. Washinton Post. January 10, 2026. Sanctioned oil tankers have broken beyond U.S. blockade in Venezuela - The Washington Post

 

Direct Air Carbon Capture Systems Set to Get Better in the Coming Years: Research from Helsinki University Tests Promising New Capture Method

     Direct air capture (DAC) is much less economical than capturing carbon from combustion or chemical reaction sources. This is because the CO2 in the atmosphere is very diluted compared to more concentrated sources from combustion or reaction. DAC is also more energy-intensive than other methods of capture. In 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted:

“Twenty-seven DAC plants have been commissioned to date worldwide, capturing almost 0.01 Mt CO2/year. Plans for at least large-scale (> 1000 tonnes CO2 per year) 130 DAC facilities are now at various stages of development.”

     They mention that lead times for DAC facilities are two to six years. They list some notable projects below.

     It should also be mentioned that the Trump administration may pull billions in potential funding for some DAC projects, which were expected under the Inflation Reduction Act, as it has for green hydrogen and other clean energy projects. The funding cuts could be partial or full. According to a MIT Technology Review article from October 2025, this is creating uncertainty around these projects. They note:

“…the DOE announced it would terminate about $7.5 billion in grants for more than 200 projects, stating that they "did not adequately advance the nation’s energy needs, were not economically viable, and would not provide a positive return on investment of taxpayer dollars."

     According to the IEA, as shown below, the projections are that the amount of CO2 captured in these projects is expected to grow by around six times in 2030 from 2026 levels, to around 60Mt, not far behind net zero projections. However, I have found most IEA projections to be overly optimistic.

“To date, 27 DAC plants have been commissioned in Europe, North America, Japan and the Middle East. Most of these plants are small scale, with only a few commercial agreements in place to sell or store the captured CO2, while the remaining plants are operated for testing and demonstration purposes. Only three plants are capturing 1 000 tonnes of CO2 per year or over: Climeworks Orca plant in Iceland, the Global thermostat headquarters plant in Colorado, and Heirloom’s first large-scale facility in California.”

     They also note that there are currently two main types of DAC technology: solid and liquid DAC, which are described below. The graph below shows that the energy needs of solid DAC are significantly higher than for liquid DAC.

“Two technological approaches are currently used to capture CO2 from the air: solid and liquid DAC. Solid DAC (S-DAC) is based on solid adsorbents operating at ambient to low pressure (i.e. under a vacuum) and medium temperature (80-120 °C). Liquid DAC (L-DAC) relies on an aqueous basic solution (such as potassium hydroxide), which releases the captured CO2 through a series of units operating at high temperature (between 300 °C and 900 °C).”

     IEA also mentions three emerging DAC technologies: electro-swing adsorption, zeolites (commonly the main component used in cat litter), and Passive DAC, which transforms atmospheric CO2 into carbonates via enhanced weathering. These are described below.

     The most energy-intensive part of DAC is separating the captured CO2 from the capturing media. Other processes, such as compressing air, also require energy. Innovation is still needed to reduce these energy requirements, which is the best way to make the processes more economical. 

     The IEA lists the following recommendations for DAC.

     Business development professional Ankur Garg posted on LinkedIn an article: The Future of Direct Air Capture: Where the Technology Is Really Heading, considers what is likely ahead for DAC. He states six trends that he sees as likely. His article gives examples of projects and developers in each section.  

1)        Small, Distributed, Modular DAC Will Explode First – he thinks these smaller projects will serve immediate and specific needs for emissions reduction for food, beverage, and industrial users. Some of these will include appliance-like modular units.

2)        DAC Will Integrate With Other Systems, Not Stand Alone – these include the utilization of waste heat and geothermal heat to use for DAC energy and heat requirements. Integration with indoor farming, with the CO2 aiding plant growth will also be a trend. Industrial users can also benefit from integrating DAC systems.

3)        Electrification + Renewable Energy = The Core Cost Driver – he thinks more DAC systems will become electrified, especially via renewable energy. He thinks this will make DAC more scalable and cheaper.

4)        CO₂ Will Become a High-Value Product, Not a Waste Molecule – he thinks CO2 utilization will grow in the form of sustainable aviation fuel, construction materials, consumer goods, and beverages (beverages require high-purity CO2).

5)        Big DAC Will Still Matter, But Will Take Longer Than People Think – he thinks that, due to land and energy constraints, financing complexity, long permitting cycles, supply chain challenges, and market uncertainty for permanent removal credits, bigger projects will be slow to roll out.

6)        The Market Will Split Into Three Clear Segments – he thinks these segments will be A) Carbon Removal (permanent storage), B) CO₂-as-a-Service (local supply) – mainly for greenhouses, breweries, labs, foods, and pharma, and C) Carbon-to-Value (fuels, chemicals, materials).

     His future of DAC in one sentence is:

“DAC is shifting from a “climate cleanup technology” to a “circular carbon platform” powering new products, new materials, new fuels, and new industries.”

 

University of Helsinki Researchers Develop a Novel Highly-Efficient DAC Method Utilizing a Super-Base and Alcohol

     Researchers at the University of Helsinki in Finland have developed a new method of DAC that utilizes a superbase combined with alcohol that outperforms other DAC methods. It is described in more detail in the snippet below from Chemical Today.

     The next steps for this new technology include moving it from lab-scale to demonstration-scale. The liquid capture media is expected to be converted into solids by binding it to silica or graphene oxide, which is expected to further improve the system.

     An article in The Register provides more information, including quotes from the researchers.

"An ideal absorbent should strongly bind CO₂ during capture yet enable its release with minimal energy input," the team said, and the TBN-BA compound, among a number they tested, seems to fit the bill, as it needs just 30 minutes of exposure to 70°C (158°F) air to release its CO₂.

"After the first cycle, the absorption capacity decreased by about 25%, so we estimate that approximately 75% of the CO₂ was recovered," Eshaghi Gorji told The Register in an email. "After the second cycle, however, almost all CO₂ is removed."

“TBN-BA is also non-toxic, according to the researchers, and the material isn't expensive to produce, either.”

“According to the University of Helsinki, the team is now working toward "near-industrial scale" tests. Those will require that a solid version of the TBN-BA compound be produced, however, which Eshaghi Gorji told us is still a work in progress.”

"Developing a commercial product requires significant time, funding, and effort. We are working toward this goal, particularly with solid sorbents, but it is difficult to estimate a timeline."

   

 

References:

 

New carbon capture tech could save us from datacenter doom. Brandon Vigliarolo. The Register. January 7, 2026. New carbon capture tech could save us from datacenter doom

University of Helsinki Develops Breakthrough Method to Capture CO2 from Air. Chemical Today. December 30, 2025. Chemical Today Magazine - Connecting World Chemically

The Future of Direct Air Capture: Where the Technology Is Really Heading. Ankur Garg. LinkedIn. December 29, 2025. (26) The Future of Direct Air Capture: Where the Technology Is Really Heading | LinkedIn

Direct Air Capture. International Energy Agency. Last updated April 25, 2024. Direct Air Capture - Energy System - IEA

The Trump administration may cut funding for two major direct-air-capture plants: At least tens of millions of dollars are on the line for big carbon removal projects in Louisiana and Texas. James Temple. MIT Technology Review. October 7, 2025. The Trump administration may cut funding for two major direct-air capture plants | MIT Technology Review

Diverted Outflow Water from Hungary’s Thermal Baths is Helping Hungary’s Grasslands Stave Off Desertification and Groundwater Depletion Caused by Droughts and Poor Surface Water Management

     This interesting water conservation story comes from Hungary and combines two of the country’s most famous features: its grasslands on the Hungarian plains and its thermal baths, fed by underground hydrothermal systems. I found the story on Good News Network, a news site I like that specializes in optimistic stories. Now, outflow from Budapest’s thermal spas is being diverted to certain fields in the Hungarian grasslands for irrigation, to mitigate drought, and to recharge groundwater. 

     The grassland region in Southern Hungary is known as the Homokhátság. As in much of Europe, surface water had already been rerouted via canals. This water mismanagement of the past is contributing to a drying up of parts of the region, which is becoming an arid landscape in the process, similar to that known as desertification. One might call it anthropogenically influenced aridification. Extended droughts have already damaged crop yields in the area, which is known for agriculture. Lack of water in the landscape is thought to be creating a feedback where the air blowing over the plain does not pick up enough moisture to produce rain.

     According to Euro News:

“A 2024 study by Hungary’s Eötvös Loránd University showed that unusually dry layers of surface-level air in the region had prevented any arriving storm fronts from producing precipitation. Instead, the fronts would pass through without rain, and result in high winds that dried out the topsoil even further.”

     A volunteer group known as Water Guardians, made up partially of local farmers, is leading the thermal water diversion project. After a dry summer in 2025, the group blocked several channel switches along a canal, bringing thousands of gallons of water to the target field. After months of emptying the spa’s outflow, the six-acre field was totally flooded. Researchers noted that the effect will extend to over four square kilometers around the field area. Higher water table levels were also recorded.

“Tamás Tóth, a meteorologist in Hungary, says that because of the potential impact such wetlands can have on the surrounding climate, water retention “is simply the key issue in the coming years and for generations to come, because climate change does not seem to stop.”

     Prime Minister Orban created a "drought task force" earlier this year to help address the problem. In addition to improvements in the water table, an increase in flora and fauna was observed in the area after the water was in place.

     The group noted:

“This initiative can serve as an example for everyone, we need more and more efforts like this,” Nagyapáti says. “We retained water from the spa, but retaining any kind of water, whether in a village or a town, is a tremendous opportunity for water replenishment.”

     The picture below seems to show the extensive hydric soils in the area, which indicate the likely presence of a wetland for most of the recent past.

 

References:

 

Hungary’s Famous Thermal Baths Are Saving the Country’s Famous Grasslands from Desertification. Andy Corbley. Good News Network. January 2, 2026. Hungary's Famous Thermal Baths Are Saving the Country's Famous Grasslands from Desertification

‘It’s getting worse year after year’: Could water from Hungary’s thermal spas save arid farmland? Euro News. Justin Spike. December 29, 2025. ‘It’s getting worse year after year’: Could water from Hungary’s thermal spas save arid farmland? | Euronews

Neptune Energy is Producing Brines from the Rotliegend Sandstone in Germany’s Altmark Basin with Lithium Concentrations Rivalling the U.S Smackover Formation

     The Saxony-Anhalt plains in Germany are the site of a new lithium-rich brine find. Extracting lithium from sedimentary basin brines is gaining traction as new direct lithium extraction (DLE) methods are being rolled out. Natural gas was once the main product of the Altmark Basin, where lithium has been found in high concentrations in the Rotliegend Sandstone at true vertical depths of about 3200 to 4000 meters (about 10,000-12,000 ft). An average lithium concentration of 375 milligrams per litre (mg/L) makes the find economically important for brines. Daily Galaxy notes that:

“Geothermal gradients in the region exceed 120°C, which supports both mineral dissolution and potential co-production of heat during extraction. This combination may improve project economics and environmental performance.”

     Neptune Energy is operating the project. Resource assessments provided by independent assessor Sproule ERCE estimate a lithium resource of 43 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). That would make the Altmark field one of the largest lithium resources in the world from a single site.

     In addition to drilling, the company is pilot testing different methods of DLE. One is utilizing ion exchange for extraction, and another is utilizing adsorption. They are also testing membrane methods. These DLE methods do not use evaporation ponds and are considered much more environmentally benign than the ones that do.

     A paper presented at the European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers explains the source of the lithium as mica-rich volcanic clasts in the sandstone. The lithium was leached out over millions of years, aided by hot hydrothermal water.

     (As an aside, I heard recently that lithium-rich groundwater in the Netherlands that is consumed as drinking water correlates strongly to a reduction in Alzheimer’s disease in the region.)

     The project is in an industrial area and can utilize some of the pre-existing gas field infrastructure. This should aid project economics. The next phase of the project is a larger demonstration plant. DLE methods still need economic improvement. Regulators are assessing groundwater impacts, waste management, and long-term sustainability.

     Neptune Energy was purchased by the Italian Oil & Gas multinational company Eni in 2024. 

     Below are a timeline, a project image, and a depiction of the process.

     According to Neptune Energy’s website:

“If scaled up commercially, up to 25,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate could be produced annually - enough to supply around 500,000 electric cars per year with battery material and make Germany less dependent on imports of raw materials. Our project contributes directly to the goals of the German government's raw materials strategy, which calls for a strengthening of domestic raw materials security and extraction.”

     The company is utilizing AI to examine large quantities of geological, gas production, and water sample data from the gas field, which has been in production for over six decades. The depiction seems to show that the lithium brine is downdip from the gas accumulation in the same geological formation.

"The lithium project depends on fast and well-founded decisions. This is where the AI-supported analysis of the Altmark data makes a clear contribution: better models, less uncertainty, faster planning. This gives us a concrete competitive advantage," adds Dr Axel Wenke, Director New Energy at Neptune Energy.

References:

 

43 million tons: Germany confirms one of the world’s largest lithium deposits in former gas field. Arezki Amiri. Daily Galaxy. January 6, 2026. 43 million tons: Germany confirms one of the world’s largest lithium deposits in former gas field

Findings on the Origin of Lithium Enrichment in Brines in the Altmark Gas Field Area, Germany. J. Böcker. European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers. 86th EAGE Annual Conference & Exhibition, Jun 2025, Volume 2025, p.1 – 5. Findings on the Origin of Lithium Enrichment in Brines in the Altmark Gas Field Area, Germany | Earthdoc

AI project makes analogue data treasures fit for the future of raw materials. 17 Dezember 2025. Neptune Energy. AI project makes analogue data treasures fit for the future of raw materials

Lithium extraction in the Altmark. Neptune Energy. Lithium extraction Altmark

 

Capturing Flared Associated Gas from Iraqi Oil Wells Can Reduce Dependence on Iranian Gas and Electricity

   About a year ago, I wrote about Iraq’s deals with BP and TotalEnergies to capture flared associated natural gas from the country’s oil fields for domestic use. At the time, I failed to mention another benefit of doing this: reducing dependency on Iran for gas and electricity imports. I can support just about anything that reduces income for Iran’s sinister regime, which is currently teetering due to mass protests. It also weakens the Iranian plan of exerting regional power.

     Simon Watkins, author of the 2023 book, The New Global Oil Market Order And How To Trade It, writes for Oil Price US that the Iraqi Oil Ministry is:

“…expediting the development of the Gharraf and Nassiriyah gas projects, with full operations expected to begin by early 2027, and production capacity reaching 200 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d).”

     In April, the U.S. Congress introduced the ‘No Iranian Energy Act,’ which intends to punish the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism and the world’s leader in executing political prisoners by disallowing them to sell energy as much as possible, including to Iraq.

“Until very recently, Iraq was the world’s second largest gas flarer after Russia, burning more than 17 billion cubic metres (Bcm) a year.” 

     That is equivalent to nearly 600 BCF per year or about 1.65 BCF per day. That is quite a lot of natural gas being wasted. Capturing it for domestic use makes economic and climate sense. The project will also require processing plants and pipelines to power plants and other points of use. The southern Iraq fields hold gas reserves of around 3.5 trillion cubic metres or 122.5 TCF, around three-quarters of which is associated gas, which refers to gas that is produced in association with oil production, which is the primary reason due to its higher price. IEA estimates there is 8TCM (280TCF) and 70% is associated gas. That is quite a lot of gas. That gas needs to be managed better, and producing it along with the oil is the obvious way to manage it.

     In 2018, Baker Hughes was set to capture and produce gas from these fields, but these projects ended up being delayed. Now. Baker Hughes is working with state-owned South Gas Company and China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation.

     Watkins explains the plan to build processing plants to extract NGLs:

“According to the Oil Ministry, the first phase of the Baker Hughes plan involved deploying an advanced modular gas-processing system at the Integrated Natural Gas Complex in Nassiriyah to dehydrate and compress flare gas, generating more than 100 mmscf/d. The second phase would expand the Nassiriyah facility into a full natural gas liquids (NGL) plant capable of recovering 200 mmscf/d of dry gas, LPG, and condensate. All of this output was earmarked for domestic power generation, with Baker Hughes estimating that capturing the flared gas from these two fields alone could supply around 400 megawatts to the Iraqi grid. At the time, deputy oil minister Karim Hattab said the project would take 30 months to complete – so it should have been finished around four years ago.”

     The U.S. had given waivers for Iraq to receive sanctioned gas from Iran, but that is likely to change. Iraq had better hurry up and get these projects going faster. However, this also hinges on geopolitics and the configuration of Iraq’s government.

“As a senior source close to Iraq’s Oil Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, the choice here -- as with most oil and gas decisions in the Middle East -- has far more to do with geopolitics than with energy. “If [current Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia’] al-Sudani is finally chosen again [following the recent elections] as the leader, then it’s very likely Iraq will move in this direction [to greater gas capture and reduced reliance on Iran], but if a leader emerges from the large pro-Iran faction then it just won’t happen.”  

References:

 

Iraq's gas breakthrough could rewrite the Middle East power map. Simon Watkins. January 5, 2026. Oil Price US. Iraq's gas breakthrough could rewrite the Middle East power map

Venezuela Expropriated Billions in Oil Investments from U.S. and Multinational Companies: The U.S, Venezuela, and the World Would Benefit from Increased Oil Output and Willing Investors

     Reuters recently provided some data on the cost to U.S. and other multinational oil companies of the expropriation of their oil investments by the Chavez and Maduro administrations in Venezuela.

“In the 2000s, former President Hugo Chávez expropriated assets from several foreign oil companies, strengthening state-owned PDVSA’s control over the country's oilfields.”

     Chevron is the only U.S. company that currently operates in the country. It owns stakes of between 25% and 60% in five onshore and offshore projects in Venezuela. It exported 150,000 barrels per day in November, which dropped to 100,000 barrels per day in December.

     U.S. company ConocoPhillips lost approximately $12 billion to Chavez’s expropriation. Italian company Eni says it is owed $2.3 billion. ExxonMobil says it is owed just under $1 billion. Spanish company Repsol says it is owed about $684 million. Shell was also set to restart a project in the country, but was blocked by the Maduro government. Thus, we have at least $16 billion expropriated from these companies, with about $13 billion, or about 81% being from American companies. Thus, to say that the U.S. under Trump is invading Venezuela to steal its oil is absolutely incorrect. The opposite is true. The Venezuelan government stole billions of dollars in investment, mostly from U.S. companies. If anything, we would be stealing it back.

     Interestingly, the decline in Venezuelan oil output means that the recent action to remove Maduro is having quite muted effects on oil markets. Its total exports are about 1 million barrels per day, with most going to China. This is less than one-third of the volumes once produced for export. Those exports have already resumed or are expected to do so soon. Trump has indicated that exports to China would resume. Russia has also invested in Venezuelan oil but has received more favorable terms as an ally. Russia’s Rosneft says it invested about $5 billion in the country. Russian and Iranian experts came to revive the oil production, with lackluster results.

     China is heavily involved in the sanctions-evasion game, with China receiving about half, around 470,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, which makes up about 4.5% of China’s seaborne oil imports. Many of the cargoes are undeclared and/or rebranded as originating from somewhere else. The country owes China about $10 billion, so those exports help it to pay its debt to China. China’s investment in the country’s oil sector is at a couple of billion, with another $1 billion investment expected this year, with the goal of increasing production by 60,000 barrels per day.  

     While Venezuela has a massive amount of oil in the ground, its current production is quite small, less than 1% of the global total. The graph below shows its contribution and that of fellow founding OPEC member Iran.

     It should be pointed out that Venezuelan crude is heavy and difficult to extract and deliver. It requires a diluent, usually condensate, naphtha, or natural gasoline (mostly pentanes and hexanes) to get it to flow through pipelines. The country’s production, pipeline, and refinery infrastructure is in disarray due to a lack of investment, mismanagement, and basic incompetence. The government has squandered the nation’s oil endowment, which once made it a shining example of a South American success story. People like Bernie Sanders once praised it as a modernized socialistic success but the success was really due to oil wealth and was squandered and mismanaged so poorly that the country became a failed state with nearly a third of the country’s residents fleeing for better opportunities, including to the U.S. We took them in under Biden with temporary protected status (TPS) that is now being retracted. Trump has alleged that this has led to an increase in crime, drugs, and violent gang activity in the U.S. Certainly, some of this is true, but it is hard to know how much.

     Due to the heavy crude, the cost to extract it is much higher, so it can’t compete economically with, say, Saudi Arabian crude. However, it is closer to the U.S., and most U.S. refineries are outfitted to refine such heavy crude, whether from Saudi Arabia, Canada, or Venezuela. Back in November 2025, I wrote more about Venezuela’s oil reserves.

“Marathon Petroleum (MPC) operates the largest heavy crude refinery in Louisiana at 606,000 barrels per day. The Garyville facility is positioned to capture 20% to 30% of increased Venezuelan oil exports.”

     The Gulf Coast refineries in the U.S. can handle the heavy, dense, sour, and high-sulfur Venezuelan crude. These refineries are high-capacity and have cokers and hydrocrackers, which can profitably convert the crude into valuable products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, and other products.

     It should also be pointed out that it will take time to revive Venezuela’s oil sector. The 18-month timeline suggested by Trump might get production up a bit, but it would likely take years or even decades to get it back to the 3.5 million barrels per day it once produced. There are issues like outdated equipment, damaged pipelines with scale and corrosion, and required facilities, power, and expertise to get it out. Even with the billions in new investments suggested by Trump, it will take time. It will also take a stabilized political environment, and in a country full of regional factions, organized crime and narco power, various militant groups, and an illegitimate regime still clinging to power, it won’t be easy. The regime’s strong embrace of most of the world’s bad actors: Russia, Iran, Cuba, Hamas, Hezbollah, and more, the removal or mitigation of those influences could also take time. I should note that I am glad Maduro is in U.S. custody. He and his illegitimate regime are certainly criminals. Those who are not glad should be put on notice: Russia, China, Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, Cuba, and fellow socialists around the world, including the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), who very often choose to side with the aforementioned rogue countries. While the Venezuelan diaspora, which is a massive chunk of the country due to the regime’s oppression and incompetence, celebrates the removal of Maduro, the DSA leads protests against the U.S. and demands that Maduro be returned to power. Sanders, AOC, Mamdani, and company are once again supporting the indisputably bad actors instead. That is a damn shame. However, I can understand the distress of the risky actions by the U.S. military. Was it really necessary? I don’t know. Will it lead to a civil war and massive bloodshed in the country? I don’t know? Will it lead to reform, elections, peace, and prosperity for the country? I don’t know, but I hope so. Certainly, reviving the country’s oil sector will lead to prosperity. There remain lots of unknowns. Time will tell.  

 

References:

 

Factbox - What's the status of international oil companies in Venezuela after Maduro's capture? Reuters. January 5, 2026. Factbox - What's the status of international oil companies in Venezuela after Maduro's capture?

Factbox - China's oil investments in Venezuela. Lewis Jackson and Sam Li. Reuters. January 5, 2026. Factbox - China's oil investments in Venezuela

Marathon Petroleum to reap a windfall on Venezuela oil boom. Rich Duprey. 24/7 Wall St. January 5, 2026. Marathon Petroleum to reap a windfall on Venezuela oil boom

Not your father’s oil market: Geopolitical shocks lack impact. Spencer Jakab. Wall Street Journal. January 5, 2026. Not your father’s oil market: Geopolitical shocks lack impact

 

 

This Date, Five Years Ago, Was a Day of Infamy Not a ‘Day of Love’: The Chief Perpetrator is Still at Large and Still Brandishing the Lie

      Neuroscientists often say that we humans have a “sense” of fairness and justice. We certainly value fairness and justice highly. We all saw what happened on January 6, 2021, and we all know the cause of it and who was most responsible.

“At least five people died in the riot and its aftermath, including Trump supporter Ashli Babbitt, who was fatally shot by police while trying to climb through a window toward the House chamber. More than 140 law enforcement officers were wounded, some gravely, and several died later, some by suicide.”

     One female officer had her skull opened up and ended up with brain damage. The entirety of the U.S. Congress was cowering and hiding in the basement while a mob pushed its way into the Capitol, vandalizing, calling for hanging the Vice President, and threatening Congresspeople. It was truly shocking. We all know the one man who could have stopped it sooner chose to watch and wait, risking the possibility of American-on-American political violence for a lie that he propagated. It was a truly sad day for our country. Those who committed some of the many violent acts stood trial and were imprisoned. I do think some of their sentences were too severe since it was a “heat-of-the-moment” kind of thing. Afterwards, at the time I thought, well, at least we won’t have to worry about MAGA again. There is no way in hell he would even be allowed to run again. But yet he did and won and pardoned all the perpetrators, even the violent ones. As if that was not enough, he turned the tables on all the investigations against him. Now they live in fear of his authority. Phony mortgage fraud indictments, calling in those who investigated him into hearings where they are chastised, and so much more.

     I am making this post simply to remember that day of infamy and shame and to remind myself and others that so many of us will not forget. We can only hope that one day his comeuppance will arrive, there will be fairness, and justice will be delivered. Apparently, the current administration is choosing to remember and officially account for things much differently, essentially attempting to rewrite history. I have read that government websites are now placing the blame for the riot on Nancy Pelosi and the Capitol Police. Now J6ers, those "patriot hostages" are marking the occasion to go to the Capitol to honor the "martyr" Ashli Babbitt and relive their oppression at the hands of the Biden administration. I heard that some even hurled jeers and cusswords at the Capitol police. The history re-write attempt has been compared to the KKK controlling the Reconstructionist narrative. Next thing you know, they'll be calling it the Riot of Anti-Trump Obsession. I've got a better idea. They can take their confederate and nazi flags, and anti-Semitic tee shirts and shove them up their asses! We won't forget or be led to believe a lie. I know what I saw.

     

    

 

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This Jan. 6 plaque was made to honor law enforcement. It's nowhere to be found at the Capitol. Lisa Mascaro. January 5, 2026. This Jan. 6 plaque was made to honor law enforcement. It's nowhere to be found at the Capitol