Friday, December 5, 2025

The Progressive Policy Institute Strongly Criticizes New York’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Act


     New York’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which the New York Post has described as disastrous, is being reconsidered, or rather considered for changes, due to the strong unlikelihood of being able to meet emissions reduction targets. Now, apparently, some Dems in the state are calling for rollbacks. Some want to stop any bans on gas stoves and new natural gas service. Others are complaining about large increases in electricity costs for consumers and residents. Governor Kathy Hochul noted:

We plan to review all our options, including working with the Legislature to modify the CLCPA,” in order “to protect New Yorkers from higher costs.”

The so-called “no-gas mandate” is scheduled to go into effect at the beginning of 2026 and has already increased costs.

     The New York Post says the rule was always unrealistic and writes:

The idea that New York can even build enough solar- and wind-power generation in time to meet those mandates was always fantasy, a charade to please climate activists — yet it’s what the law says the state must do.”

As the legal deadlines get closer (or pass without the state doing what the law says it should), the truth grows ever more obvious: It’s not just unrealistic to make “net-zero carbon emissions” a top priority, it’s also expensive, risky and wrongheaded.”

A new analysis by the Democratic-leaning think tank the Progressive Policy Institute found a “clear and undeniable pattern of failure” to achieve the mandates of the act. They conclude that the goals are impractical and unachievable.

New York set bold climate targets, but ignored the economic and technical realities required to achieve them,” said PPI’s report author Neel Brown.

The result is an energy system that is less reliable, more expensive, and now politically unsustainable. Unless policymakers course correct, the state risks turning a climate leadership story into a cautionary tale,” he added.

     The Hochul administration revealed recently that it will delay implementation of the All-Electric Buildings Act, which includes a ban on installing gas stoves in newly built homes.

     The PPI report also concluded that the state’s energy supply is constrained, demand continues to rise due to electrification and AI data centers, and power prices continue to rise. Below is some information about the shortfalls in meeting the goals of the act.






     Below are some data from the report. The first graph shows that the state has lower per capita emissions than the U.S. average. This is due partly to the density of New York City and the city’s reliance on mass transit, which reduces fuel emissions from cars. The second graph shows the higher electricity costs New Yorkers pay compared to the national average. The final figure is a summary of some proposed solutions, which include focusing less on mandates and more on outcomes, shifting away from abolishing and towards more building and modernizing, and prioritizing affordability. 

 





 


 

 

References:

 

Dem-leaning group roasts NY’s green energy law as an ‘undeniable’ failure as customers zapped by soaring costs. Carl Campanile. New York Post. December 1, 2025. Dem-leaning group roasts NY’s green energy law as an ‘undeniable’ failure as customers zapped by soaring costs

Can New York Democrats even DELAY the energy crisis their laws are creating? Post Editorial Board. New York Post. November 1, 2025. Albany may move to delay its insane climate laws — but far better to scrap it altogether | New York Post

NEW YORK'S CLIMATE CROSSROADS: ASSURING AFFORDABLE ENERGY. Neel Brown and John Kemp. Progressive Policy Institute. November 2025. PPI_New-Yorks-Climate-Crossroads.pdf

Thursday, December 4, 2025

It Looks Like Europe is Pivoting to Drill for More Oil & Gas, Especially in Offshore Plays


    Faced with the loss of pipelined Russian gas supplies and the high cost of LNG, including U.S. LNG, and the high cost of gas for consumers, Europe seems to be pivoting toward drilling more wells, according to articles in Oil Price US and by Reuters BOE Report. Most of the drilling is likely to be in offshore plays.




     The EU is under a rather self-imposed drilling “ban,” or at least strong discouragement, by energy transition ambitions that many are now realizing are unrealistic in the near term. That, coupled with the loss of Russian gas and the high costs of LNG, is driving new projects. However, these projects won’t be available for consumption quickly, especially as offshore projects are notoriously slow to come online. The EU now imports 85% of its natural gas, up from about 50% in the 1990s. LNG imported from the U.S. now makes up 16.5% of the EU’s gas supply.

     The reports note that three countries in particular are now pondering new offshore exploration projects: Greece in the Ionian Sea, offshore Italy, and the UK in the North Sea. I might add that other EU offshore areas to consider include offshore Romania in the Black Sea, offshore Poland in the Baltic Sea, and near Cyprus in the Mediterranean. 

     In November, Greece issued its first offshore oil and gas exploration license, the Block 2 license, in over four decades to a consortium of Exxon Mobil, Energean, and Helleniq Energy. Greece also awarded Chevron and Helleniq exploration rights in blocks south of the Peloponnese peninsula. In the first block, as much as 200 billion cubic meters (7 TCF) of gas could be accessible. Drilling is expected to begin in late 2026 or in 2027. The country hopes to develop the offshore gas and export it to other EU countries to enhance their energy security.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who attended the Block 2 award signing ceremony in Athens along with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, said the development of the field would help Europe displace Russian energy.”

     In that context, it now appears even more unrealistic that the EU will buy $750 billion in U.S. fuel purchases over the next three years, as indicated in previous negotiations with the Trump administration.

     Italy is also considering reviving offshore oil and gas exploration, which was suspended in 2019, with Shell, the top producer in the country, saying it is ready to invest.

     In Britain, the government recently loosened its strict ban on new exploration activity in the North Sea to allow companies to expand production in existing fields, and is also expected to approve two major new fields in the coming months.

     Norway’s state oil company, Equinor, expects to drill 250 North Sea exploratory wells by 2050 to sustain production. Denmark still maintains restrictions on offshore exploratory drilling, and the Netherlands restricts all onshore exploration, likely due to induced seismicity issues.

     Poland had an exploration success earlier this year in the Baltic Sea, which I wrote about. It may be the biggest European success in the past decade.

     Reuters notes that realistically, the EU won’t reduce or delay its climate commitments too much overall, and they also won’t be able to boost domestic production that much. With depletion in some fields, it takes significant drilling just to maintain domestic production.  

     Oil Price US points to a Reuters article in October that referred to the renewables advocate IEEFA, noting that the U.S. would need to:

“…supply around 70% of Europe's LNG in 2026-2029, up from 58% so far this year, as the EU plans to ban Russian LNG from 2027 and Russian gas from 2028, Energy Aspects analysts said.”

     That article also notes that despite the increase in LNG imports, the continent still imports both pipelined gas and LNG from Russia, though that is expected to be discontinued. Pipeline imports from Algeria have also dropped, as well as from Russia. Some projections from S&P Global and IEEFA for EU gas supply are shown below.






     LNG exports are starting to increase from the U.S. as more liquefaction trains come online and more supporting infrastructure is built. Thus, there will be more cargoes available to the EU as well as to Asia.

 

  

 

References:

 

'Drill, baby, drill': Europe aims to reduce reliance on US LNG. Andrew Topf. Oil Price US. December 3, 2025. 'Drill, baby, drill': Europe aims to reduce reliance on US LNG

Europe’s drilling comeback challenges US energy pledges: Bousso. Reuters. BOE Report. December 1, 2025. Europe’s drilling comeback challenges US energy pledges: Bousso | BOE Report

European Union's US gas use set to soar, increasing price volatility. Nora Buli and Alban Kacher. Reuters. October 6, 2025. European Union's US gas use set to soar, increasing price volatility | Reuters

Can AI Properly Interpret a Seismic Line? Not Yet, but Close, Says a Seismic-Interpreting Geologist: Better as a Digital Partner than as a Replacement

 

     The geophysicist, Max Leonardo Duerto Segali, who runs the Geoscientist Blog, recently posted about asking Chat GPT to interpret a seismic line. He is skilled in seismic interpretation. As for me, while I have looked at many seismic lines and used them in my work, I prefer to have them interpreted by geophysicists skilled in interpretation, which I am not. Knowing the structural style or having sufficient subsurface data in the area of interest really helps.

     The seismic line submitted to Chat GPT for interpretation was a salt dome structure, where the other beds pinch out against it as it intrudes. Below, he shows how ChatGPT was prompted to interpret the line.





     Version 1, shown below, he calls the Junior Interpreter – that would be me. He calls it a conservative attempt that got the drapes right but underestimated the number of depositional sequences.




     Version 2, shown below, he calls the Confident Geoscientist. This one is better and more detailed. He says it shows a more realistic salt structure shape and onlapping of beds against it, “demonstrating a more nuanced understanding of stratigraphic relationships.”




     Version 3, shown below, is the fullest interpretation. He calls this one the Workshop Lead and the most ambitious interpretation.




     Below, he describes how the AI interpretation works – by mimicry.




     He goes on to distinguish the AI interpretation from human interpretation, noting that true interpretation is hypothesis testing, not simply drawing.

A horizon is not a line you draw because it “looks nice”. It is a geometric proposition about the Earth that must be able to produce the wavefield we observe. If it cannot, the interpretation is false; no matter how senior or confident the interpreter.”

     As noted below, he thinks that by giving AI “physics-based forward models,” the interpretations can be improved to match the waveform data.



     Finally, he reveals that AI would make a great digital assistant for seismic interpretation.



     This was a fascinating experiment and shows that AI will likely become an important part of seismic interpretation in the future.

 

 

 

References:

 

And then I asked GPT to interpret a seismic line! guess what it did! The Geoscientist Blog. November 27 2025. And then I asked GPT to intepret a seismic line! guess what it did!

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Synthetic Natural Gas: From CO2 Captured from Bioethanol Plants Plus Green Hydrogen: Live Oak e-NG project in Nebraska Expects FID in 2027 and Commercial Ops in 2030


    TotalEnergies, TES, and three Japanese gas companies, Osaka Gas, Toho Gas, and ITOCHU, have initiated and signed an agreement for the Live Oak e-NG project in Nebraska, targeting commercial production by 2030. The project is expected to be one of the most advanced synthetic natural gas projects in the U.S. According to Oil Price US:

The partners will now begin Front-End Engineering Design for a facility designed to run 250 MW of electrolysis capacity and produce around 75,000 tonnes per year of synthetic methane. A final investment decision is planned for 2027, with start-up targeted for 2030. Osaka Gas and Toho Gas are expected to be the main offtakers, aligning the project directly with Japan’s target of blending at least 1% carbon-neutral gas into the national grid by the end of the decade.”

     Ethanol, or more properly, bioethanol, produced from corn, offers one of the most concentrated forms of CO2 to be captured, and will be used as a feedstock in the e-NG production process. Another feedstock will be green hydrogen produced from electrolysis powered by renewable energy, which is abundant in the region.

     Synthetic natural gas is considered to be a very decarbonized source since it is created from CO2 and H2. Japan is heavily dependent on LNG and wishes to further decarbonize its supply, and e-NG offers that ability. TotalEnergies and TES are collaborating on several e-NG projects globally.  

 





References:

 

TotalEnergies and Partners Advance Nebraska e-NG Project. Charles Kennedy. Oil Price US. December 2, 2025. TotalEnergies and Partners Advance Nebraska e-NG Project

DOE Critical Materials Collaborative, Innovation Hub, and the USGS 2025 List of Critical Minerals and Critical Minerals Atlas


     The U.S. Department of Energy continues to fund, collaborate, and innovate on domestic critical minerals development. Both the Biden and Trump administration DOEs have led this focus. One major goal of the program is to counter China’s dominance in critical minerals and REE mining and processing.  

 

The Critical Materials Collaborative

     The Critical Materials Collaborative was launched in the summer of 2023 by the Biden DOE in order “to improve and increase communication and coordination among DOE, government agencies, and stakeholders working on critical materials projects.” The goal is to accelerate “commercialization, deployment, and the development of secure domestic critical material supply chains.”

 

​​​​​​The Critical Materials Innovation Hub

     ​​​​​​The Critical Materials Innovation Hub (CMI Hub), formerly the Critical Materials Institute, was established in 2013 and is led by Ames National Laboratory. It is a multidisciplinary effort to improve critical materials innovation to the benefit of the country. 





     The CMI Hub addresses challenges in “mineral processing, manufacture, substitution, and efficient use; integrating scientific research, engineering innovation, manufacturing and process improvements.” Nine national laboratories, more than a dozen universities, and 30 industry partners are members of the CMI Hub. CMI Hub also funds research patents.






DOE Critical Materials Funding Announcements

     On November 14, 2025, the DOE announced $355 million in funding “to expand domestic production of critical materials essential for advancing U.S. energy production, manufacturing, transportation and national defense.”

The first funding opportunity provides up to $275 million for American industrial facilities capable of producing valuable minerals from existing industrial and coal byproducts. The second provides up to $80 million to establish Mine of the Future proving grounds for real-world testing of next-generation mining technologies.”

In August, the DOE announced its “intent to invest $1 billion to advance and scale mining, processing, and manufacturing technologies.” As noted, with the November announcement, they also emphasized producing critical materials as byproducts from existing feedstocks, including coal waste and industrial waste.

  • Coal-based feedstocks – advancing and accelerating demonstration of critical material production using coal-based resources as feedstocks.
  • Industrial byproducts and wastes – open to all U.S. industry sectors that produce market-ready materials where industrial byproducts and/or wastes can be a source of crucially needed critical materials.

     These pilots will be well-funded and provide opportunities to recover significant value from waste streams. The agency also hopes to develop and strengthen a critical materials workforce.

     On December 1, 2025, the DOE announced $134 million in funding to strengthen Rare Earth Element supply chains. It will fund pilot demonstrations for recovering and refining/processing REEs from “unconventional feedstocks including mine tailings, e-waste, and other waste materials.”

REEs, such as Praseodymium, Neodymium, Terbium and Dysprosium, are vital components in advanced manufacturing, defense systems, and high-performance magnets used in power generation and electric motors. By investing in domestic REE recovery and processing, DOE is working to secure America’s energy independence, strengthen economic competitiveness, and ensure long-term resilience in the nation’s supply chains.”

 

USGS 2025 List of Critical Minerals

     The Energy Act of 2020 requires the USGS to use an updated methodology to quantify the risks associated with potential supply chain disruptions. The methodology for determining minerals to be on the list is an economic model that utilizes current markets, pricing, and potential for supply disruptions.




The updated methodology uses an economic model that the USGS developed to estimate the potential effects of foreign trade disruptions of mineral commodities on the U.S. economy. The analysis also provides a prioritization based on the results. The economic model has several advantages over previous assessments, including the ability to directly compare the results against other economic risks and the costs of initiatives aimed at reducing the risks.”




     There are 10 new minerals on the 2025 list, which is updated from the 2022 list, including metallurgical coal. Arsenic and tellurium were determined to be no longer critical but will remain on the list until the next assessment, pending further data.






 

USGS Critical Minerals Atlas

     The USGS also has a dashboard where critical minerals production and processing can be evaluated for different countries. The first figure below shows the top five critical minerals produced and processed in the U.S., and the second figure below shows the top five produced and processed in China. In the U.S., the missing names are rare earth elements, after beryllium, and zinc, after zirconium. In China, the two missing names are magnesium, after gallium, and cobalt (refined), after tungsten.



U.S. Top 5 Critical Minerals: #2 is rare earth elements, and #4 is zinc




 China Top 5 Critical Minerals: #2 is magnesium, and #4 is cobalt (refined)




    

References:

 

About the 2025 List of Critical Minerals. US Geological Survey. Mineral Resources Program. November 6, 2025. About the 2025 List of Critical Minerals | U.S. Geological Survey

Critical Materials Collaborative. U.S. Department of Energy. Critical Materials Collaborative | Department of Energy

Critical Materials Innovation Hub (CMI). U.S. Department of Energy. Critical Materials Innovation Hub (CMI) | Department of Energy

Energy Department Announces $355 Million to Expand Domestic Production of Critical Minerals and Materials. U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Department Announces $355 Million to Expand Domestic Production of Critical Minerals and Materials | Department of Energy

Energy Department Announces $134 Million in Funding to Strengthen Rare Earth Element Supply Chains, Advancing American Energy Independence. U.S. Department of Energy. Energy Department Announces $134 Million in Funding to Strengthen Rare Earth Element Supply Chains, Advancing American Energy Independence | Department of Energy

Critical Materials Innovation Hub: 10 Years of Innovation, Influence, & Impact. U.S. Department of Energy. September 2024. Critical Materials Innovation Hub: 10 Years of Innovation, Influence, & Impact

Critical Minerals Atlas. US Geological Survey. Critical Minerals Atlas | USGS

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Real-Time Frac and Production Monitoring for Fracture-Driven Interaction: Summary & Review of Momentum AI’s ‘Top 5 Fracking Misconceptions That Are Costing You More Than You Think’


      Downhole intelligence company Momentum AI says they have identified the following five misconceptions about fracking. The company seems to be focused heavily on interference between wells, known as “frac hits,” or fracture-driven interaction (FDI), and how to avoid and minimize it. Frac hits are more common in some plays than others. The Eagle Ford and Permian, two of the biggest onshore oil plays, have had ongoing problems with frac hits, so much so that it affects well and field production significantly. The company emphasizes the power of AI “to automatically detect, alert, and reduce FDI impact in real-time.”

 

Misconception #1: We Can Wait Months for Feedback - That’s Just How It Works

     Waiting several months for verification or not of well interference between parent and child wells is common but not necessary, they say. Real-time monitoring is possible. They cite a successful Eagle Ford project here. They also claim that waiting months for verification data is costly, referring to it as a “$5 billion waiting game.”

 

Misconception #2: Manual Data Analysis by Expert Engineers Is Necessary

     Here, they emphasize that the path to get from data to insights can be shortened from expensive 24-hour analysis by engineers to AI frac intelligence analysis. They claim they can find patterns in data faster. However, they don’t explain exactly how.

 

Misconception #3: Small Production Improvements Don’t Justify Investment

     Here, they note the sheer financial power of small production improvements. Citing an average Permian Basin well they explain the benefits of a mere 1% production improvement:

Here’s the math: The average Permian well produces approximately 428,000 barrels over its lifetime. A mere 1% improvement at $75 per barrel equals $320,000 in additional revenue. Per well.”  

     Across a whole drilling program, that 1% production improvement translates to saving millions of dollars. They point out that their frac and production monitoring can reduce fracture-driven interaction (FDI) magnitude on completed frac stages, cut completion time, save money on diesel, and cut flowback costs.

 

Misconception #4: “Gut Feelings and Experience Are Sufficient for Completion Decisions”

     Here, they again address the problem of frac hits, emphasizing that their real-time monitoring and visualization offer the best insights into it.

We recently showed a completion team real-time visualization of fracture interactions they suspected but could never confirm. When asked if this matched expectations, the engineer responded, “Yes, but we never actually knew it was working until you showed us today.”

 

Misconception #5: “Current Monitoring Solutions Are Adequate”

     Here, they note the expense of monitoring with fibre optic systems or microseismic, and emphasize the analysis provided by sensors collecting data at super-fast speeds and analyzing it with machine learning.

Most operators already collect pressure data at 1-15 minute intervals, creating a paradox: drowning in data while thirsting for insights. The breakthrough comes from intelligent processing, not more data collection.”

Modern solutions use ultra-high-frequency sensors sampling at 40,000 times per second, 800x more than traditional systems, processing 5,000-30,000 events per stage through machine learning. A single wellhead sensor provides immediate feedback on whether fracking designs work as intended.”

 

Benefits of Real-Time Frac, Flowback, and Production Monitoring

     They emphasize that real-time monitoring enables real-time optimization. Momentum AI’s products, FDai and FracScore, deal with fracture-driven interaction (FDI), especially as mature fields depressurize.

As fields mature, depleted pressure zones act like magnets for new fractures, creating Fracture-Driven Interactions that can destroy millions in potential revenue.




     More benefits of Momentum AI’s Real-Time Frac Monitoring are shown below.

    

 








References:

 

Top 5 Fracking Misconceptions That Are Costing You More Than You Think. Momentum AI. Hart Energy. Top 5 Fracking Misconceptions That Are Costing You More Than You Think - Hart Energy

Optimize Your Operations with Automatic FDI Detection. Momentum AI. Real-Time FDI Detection: Boost Efficiency, Save Costs


Monday, December 1, 2025

Resource Nationalism, Jihadis, Sanctions Evasion, Narco-Trafficking, and the Colonialist Narrative: Government Takeover of Uranium Mine in Niger, Record Deliveries of Cocaine to Europe, and Criminal Networking


Colonialism as a Narrative Justifying Organized Crime  

     The military junta in Niger confiscated a uranium mine in the country from a French company that was a 63% owner, citing past colonialism. Historical and legacy colonialism and exploitation are no doubt issues worth acknowledging, understanding, and preventing in the future. However, the narrative of colonialism is being used to justify crime, corruption, and rogue governments. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has also cited colonialism as a reason to keep American and other multinational companies away from producing its vast oil fields. Socialists and political Progressives have long talked about past colonialism as a negative effect on countries, but it has now become a justification for getting revenge by expanding black markets, informal economies, and vast organized crime networks. So, those leftists are, in a sense, collaborating in the narrative that past colonialism is a justification for modern crime. Russia has also supported and exploited the colonialist narratives put out by African countries as a means to gain influence over Western countries. 

 

Unholy Alliances

     Circumstances often dictate how different people, governments, and groups collaborate. The lucrative trade of cocaine is one instance. Colombia is where coca leaves grow naturally, has long been, and remains the source of much of the world’s cocaine. Production has been increasing in recent years. More recently that cocaine has been moved to Venezuela, which has a much longer coastline, and then shipped to West Africa, where some governments also assist in the lucrative trade, particularly the narco-government of Guinea-Bissau. Jihadists from Al Qaeda and other groups also assist, often by taking bribes to allow the drugs to pass through the territories they control. 




     In the case of Niger’s uranium, the buyers are expected to be from Iran, Russia, and/or Türkiye, with the first two under more or less global sanctions. Thus, it is clear that these two countries are part of these unholy alliances I am talking about. The narco-traffickers use the same sanctions evasion techniques to disguise themselves, such as turning off plane transponders, like the oil tankers do.

Traffickers are flying at least one cargo a week from Venezuela to West Africa, say current and former Western officials. Smugglers turn off their planes’ transponders to hide their movements and bribe air-traffic controllers to switch off their tracking systems when drug planes pass overhead, according to InSight Crime.”

     With the dangers of drug use amplified immensely by fentanyl being added to other drugs besides heroin, there is a danger of death from using these drugs. It really should be considered death by poison. These drugs are now tied not just to organized crime but to rogue states and jihadist networks, feeding their coffers. In Lebanon and Syria, when Assad was still in power, there was an epidemic of a stimulant drug called Captagon that was dealt by organized crime, assisted by jihadi groups like Hezbollah, and the governments. Benoit Faulcon of the Wall Street Journal writes:

The confluence of drug smugglers, jihadists and corrupt officials is part of a growing global alignment among criminal gangs, militant groups and rogue governments that threatens democratic norms and social stability, with profound potential ramifications.”

     While some of that cocaine makes its way to the U.S., giving justification for stepping up intervention (though not likely to the level of blowing up boats and killing all on board), most ends up in West Africa, on its way to Europe, including Eastern Europe, and other places. Al Qaeda-affiliated groups may escort convoys of drugs in exchange for big payoffs. This happens in Mali, another country with a recent coup and now ruled by a military junta. Russia is often, but not always, involved and aligned with the African military juntas and has meddled significantly in several of these countries.

     One result is that much more cocaine is being seized in Europe than in the U.S. Venezuela has become a top Latin American transit route to Europe, but cocaine is also shipped to Europe from Brazil, Guyana, and other countries in large quantities. Spanish police recently detained 13 members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua for cocaine trafficking. One private jet seized by Guinea-Bissau authorities contained 2.6 tons of cocaine from Venezuela. The coke is delivered overland to Venezuela from Colombia.

     This is nothing new and has been going on for at least a decade.

Corruption at airports has also enabled organized criminals to ship large quantities of drugs through commercial airliners. In 2013, shortly after Maduro’s election, a British drug trafficker shipped almost 1.4 tons of cocaine hidden in suitcases on a flight from Caracas to Paris, where it was seized by French police.”

     These days, it is a more organized and vaster network of corruption, bribes, payoffs, escorts, and collusion by many people, governments, and businesses.

From Mali, the drugs cross the Sahara and into Algeria, Morocco and Libya, say Western officials. A Russia-backed Libyan faction is collecting fees on cocaine transiting from Niger to Egypt, according to a 2024 U.N. report. From Northern Africa, the drugs are shipped across the Mediterranean Sea to Southern Europe.”

     Even so-called narco-subs are being used to deliver cocaine directly from Colombia/Venezuela to Europe.

Colombian drug dealers also use semi-submersibles from Venezuela to move cocaine to Spain, according to InSight Crime. Portuguese police earlier this month detained such a vessel with 1.7 tons of cocaine, manned by a Venezuelan crew, as it sailed across the mid-Atlantic.”

     The influence of narco-gangs around the world has become more sophisticated and aligned with other lucrative organized crime ventures, such as illegal mining, illegal logging, oil stealing, illegal fishing, etc. It has been reported that some members of Mexican drug cartels went to fight for Ukraine in order to learn about drone warfare that they could employ against the intervention of their crimes.

     While there have been attempts at intervention in Africa by European law enforcement, the rise of military coups has complicated those efforts considerably. When governments become complicit with organized crime, often the worst elements of it, there will be problems.  

     Whether Maduro or Colombian President Gustav Petro is involved in the cocaine trade is a matter of debate, but certainly, they are not doing much about it. In some ways, they can’t because of the sheer power of narco-traffickers in the region, some of whom in Colombia are still associated with many decades-old militants like the FARC. Petro stated in February that cocaine was no worse than whiskey and argued that it should be legalized, which would hurt the smugglers. That is not likely to ever happen. He also argued that it was safer than fentanyl. If it were legal, then his country could benefit from its production as the world’s largest supplier. Petro argued at the UN meeting in September that the UN was unfairly measuring Colombia’s cocaine output and that it is lower than they depicted. He was trying to defend his anti-narcotics stance, but the argument is not very substantial since the UN’s estimated 10% increase since he became president in 2022, from 230,000 hectares under production in 2022 vs. 253,000 in 2023, is really a slight increase to an already massive problem. According to Colombia One:

Since Gustavo Petro took office in August 2022, Colombia has shifted its counternarcotics policy, prioritizing the voluntary substitution of illicit crops over forced eradication.”

     The conservative opposition in the country has denounced the policy change away from forced eradication. Al Jazeera reported on November 21, 2025, that Colombia seized a record 14 tons of cocaine at a Pacific port, bound for shipment to the Netherlands, the largest bust in a decade. The cocaine was disguised in plaster and is said to contain 35 million doses. As a dig at Trump, Petro emphasized that the bust was carried out without a single death.

     Meanwhile, the newly elected conservative government in Bolivia invited the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) back into the country after being gone for 17 years. The new narcotics tsar has noted that Bolivian cocaine production had “spiraled out of control.” He also noted that international cooperation is the key to fighting the narcotics trade. I believe that a shift in Latin American countries from far left and socialist leaders to center-right or center-left leaders would also be helpful to those countries in a number of ways, including less narco-trafficking. More legitimate economic development, including resource development. Petro has pledged to stop fossil fuel production in Colombia, which runs counter to that.

 

Resource Nationalism: There are Acceptable and Unacceptable Types

     Resource nationalism is nothing new, and many countries do it in a way that is acceptable to modern economic systems. Many countries have nationalized oil and gas companies, mineral interests, etc. This is usually not problematic, though it can be inefficient and manipulate markets. Venezuela is an important example where distrust of American and multinational oil companies led to the removal of them, as well as skilled Venezuelan workers. This resulted in the tragic and unnecessary deterioration of the Venezuelan oil industry. Bolivia suffered from a similar issue, where available oil & gas and lithium resources were not pursued. That wave of resource nationalism was a feature of the 1990s, particularly among leftist and socialist leaders. In the case of Bolivia, it led to unrealized economic development. Russia’s highly manipulative resource nationalism is well-documented. The imposing of sanctions also created a criminal cartel of sorts. When Russian oil was first sanctioned, there was an acknowledgement that less oil on the market would lead to price spikes. Thus, there was little effort to enforce sanctions. It is good that that is changing now, as sanctions evasion is being scrutinized more with buyers being targeted more. Open-sea ship transfers have resulted in fake declarations of oil origins. Oil-sanctioned countries, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela have collaborated and strengthened cooperation in these criminal networks, but with buyers being pressured not to buy by threat of sanctions against them, there is less room for them to succeed.

     The SOMAIR mine in northern Niger was expropriated by the government from the French nuclear fuels company Orano, which recently criticized an overland shipment posing

 "serious safety and security risks”, citing threats of diversion of the radioactive material and breaches of international transport rules.”

A convoy carrying uranium concentrate, known as yellowcake, had left the Arlit mining site just days ago. Up to 1050 tons of it had been moved, according to reports. According to Reuters:

But in a broadcast Sunday night, Niger's state television said the country would exercise its "legitimate right" to sell uranium from the SOMAIR mine to any buyer under market rules, as sovereignty over natural resources was "non-negotiable".

     The country’s leader cited colonialism as justification, referring to “wealth plundered for more than half a century.”

The move violates a September ruling by the World Bank's International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, which barred Niger from selling or transferring SOMAIR's uranium in breach of Orano's rights.”

     The government seized the mine last December and nationalized it this summer. Niger is the world’s seventh largest producer of uranium and accounts for about 15% of Orano’s supply if the mines are operating at full capacity.




     Microsoft Copilot offers a definition of resource nationalism:

Resource nationalism is the assertion of control by a country over its natural resources, aiming to maximize domestic benefits and ensure that resources primarily benefit the nation's citizens.

     The problem with resource nationalism is that companies with the knowledge, financial resources, and technology do not make enough money, and they will not assist in the projects. This, along with massive corruption and sanctions, is what led to Venezuela’s oil production nosedive.

     This problem with the collaboration of organized crime networks, narco-trafficking, jihadi terrorists, rogue governments, sanctioned governments, and corrupt officials needs to be addressed and contained. Demand for cocaine in Western countries also needs to be addressed. However, I don’t think bombing suspected drug boats is a good long-term plan. It may work, but there are many problems with that approach.  

 

 

References:

 

How Venezuelan Gangs and African Jihadists Are Flooding Europe With Cocaine. Benoit Faucon. The Wall Street Journal. November 30, 2025. How Venezuelan Gangs and African Jihadists Are Flooding Europe With Cocaine

France's Orano says uranium convoy from seized Niger mine poses safety risks. Maxwell Akalaare Adombila. Reuters. December 1, 2025. France's Orano says uranium convoy from seized Niger mine poses safety risks

Cocaine "no worse than whiskey," would be "sold like wine" if legalized worldwide, Colombia's president says. CBS News. February 6, 2025. Cocaine "no worse than whiskey," would be "sold like wine" if legalized worldwide, Colombia's president says - CBS News

Colombia hails ‘historic blow’ after largest cocaine bust in a decade. Alastair McCready and News Agencies. Al Jazeera. November 21, 2025. Colombia hails ‘historic blow’ after largest cocaine bust in a decade

Colombia’s Petro Urges UN to Revise Report on Cocaine Production. Josep Freixes. Colombia One September 25, 2025. Colombia’s Petro Urges UN to Revise Report on Cocaine Production

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