Europe just
experienced an intense heat wave. Here in the U.S. Midwest, we are undergoing a
heat dome as well, with temps as high as 100 deg F predicted. There will be a
difference in impacts. More people will be miserable, suffer, and die in Europe
than in the U.S. simply because U.S. residents have much better access to air
conditioning than those in the E.U.
In European countries, AC use
is only around 20% of the population, compared to countries such as the U.S.
and Japan, where it is about 76% and 90%, respectively. The difference is
simply that lives are saved during heat waves, where there is more AC.
It was hot enough in the U.K.
that people lined up at markets to purchase AC units and fans.
There is no doubt that Europe
is warming, as Roger Pielke Jr. confirms. Heat mortality is also rising in
Europe, with over 1000 deaths attributed to the recent heat wave. He writes:
“Heat mortality has also been increasing in Europe:
Summer 2022 saw an estimated ~68,000 heat-related deaths, 2023, ~50,800; 2024,
~62,800. The WHO European Region reports that heat mortality is up by about 30
percent over two decades.”
In contrast, heat mortality
has fallen in every region in the U.S. over the past 50 years due mainly to the
widespread adoption of air conditioning. The graph below shows very clearly
that air conditioning saves lives. It really is that simple.
Pielke Jr. shows some
evidence that if Europe had increased in AC adoption from 19% to nearly 90%
during the 2022 heat wave, then about 35,000 lives would have been saved.
The graph below shows clearly
that heat mortality increases with age. Most deaths from heat occur indoors.
The elderly and infants are most protected by air conditioning. He notes that
in Europe, 93% of deaths from heat occur in people over 65, and 90.5% of deaths
in the 2022 heat wave occurred in people over 80.
Kevin Kohler’s July 2025
article, ‘Make Europe Cool Again’, has more data showing that Europe by far
leads the world in deaths from heat per capita. He argued that AC is not a
luxury, but a necessity.
Kohler puts some blame on EU
policies that de-emphasize economic growth.
“These regulations have not happened by accident, but
they come from an ideology that emphasizes energy degrowth as the only viable
solution to climate change. What that means in practice is that Europe has
heavily prioritized insulation and passive cooling. In contrast, active cooling
through an AC, even if running on clean energy, has been disincentivized
because it requires energy.”
As Pielke Jr. shows in the
table below, countries in the E.U. clearly have policies that discourage air
conditioning, and one could say that these policies increase the risk of death
as well. Thus, one could also say that efforts to protect the climate are
literally killing people. Can one call them climate policy deaths? He also
points out that AC demand increases when solar energy is at peak generation, so
that a significant amount of the power for AC can come from solar energy that
might otherwise be curtailed, where applicable. The aversion to AC in Europe
may well be based on seeing energy usage as a vice to be avoided to protect the
climate. There are other reasons as well. Northern Europe did not have a real
need for AC until a few decades ago, when summer heat began increasing.
Historical temperatures did not demand AC, and so some cultural aversion to it
developed.
Maarten Boudry writes in a
recent article for Quillette:
“In practice, Europeans of all ages are told to suck it
up and sweat it out. France would sooner close its schools in a heat wave than
fit them with devices that demonstrably improve concentration and learning. In
the Swiss canton of Geneva, installing an air conditioner requires a doctor's
certificate. During the recent energy crisis, Spain and Italy barred public
buildings from cooling below 27°C— hot enough to dull your cognitive powers by
5 percent.”
He, too, cites the insane AC
disincentives:
“The resistance is baked into European regulation. In
many countries a conventional air conditioner lowers your building's energy
rating. The result is entirely predictable: owners and landlords decline to
install units, or rip out the ones they have. Those left without built-in
cooling fall back on drafty, inefficient portables that can scarcely make a
dent in the temperature. I own one myself—a wheezing box with a fat hose shoved
through a rickety fabric covering the window. It is the thermodynamic equivalent
of mopping the floor with the tap running, but that’s simply the direction in
which Europe’s regulations have nudged me.”
Boudry, a philosopher, gives
more commonsense insights into the matter and argues successfully that it is
prosperity that enables adaptation.
“The practical fixes for deadly heat are
straightforward: do what the Americans are doing. Reform the energy ratings so
they stop penalising air conditioners. Streamline the permits for built-in
cooling. Retrofit every care home and hospital ward. Open publicly accessible
cooling centres. And accelerate the build-out of clean, reliable
electricity—because a Frenchman relaxing in a spacious air-conditioned villa,
drawing on nuclear power, still emits less carbon than a frugal German drawing
from a coal-fired grid. Grid management beats self-flagellation.”
“But these are just symptoms. The harder task is the
mental switch: to stop treating energy as something to atone for. Energy is the
master resource, the thing that buys us nearly every other good. The whole of
human history is the story of harnessing ever more energy to improve our lives
and to hold the lethal forces of nature at bay. To despise energy is to bite
the hand that feeds you.”
“Which brings me to one last trivia question: which
continent suffers the most cold-related deaths? It’s neither Europe nor North
America, but Africa. Prosperity is what allows us to adapt—to heat and cold
alike—and adaptation is what stands between us and an inhospitable nature.”
I remember when I was young
in the 1970s, when we got our first air conditioning unit. It was huge and very
heavy. It took two or even three people to lift it up to the window and
required a wooden substructure under it to hold it in place. Now, AC units are
small and not nearly as energy-intensive.
While Britain is not known
for being hot, as noted, summer heat waves have been increasing. Yet, only 5%
of British households have AC, according to a 2025 article by the Centre for
British Progress. The 2022 heat wave caused about 3000 deaths there. Since
then, installation of air-source heat pumps has been rising, but the costs for
these units is pretty high, and electricity costs are also high in the U.K., so
the costs also disincentivize AC adoption. They do mention one caveat of higher
AC adoption in cities. It does increase the urban heat island effect. They site
a study in Phoenix that estimates an increase of 1-1.5 deg C nighttime
temperature increases during heat waves due to the heat island effect. That is
important, but remember, most heat deaths occur indoors.
The French aversion to AC
does have a lot to do with views on climate change.
“A recent survey in France found that one in six people
said they would rather suffer for the sake of the environment. Vandecasteele
told CBS News she doesn't find that surprising.”
"We're not doing this for us," she said.
"We're doing this for the future generations."
What about the thousands of
elderly people who just died and the others who will die in future heat waves?
Over a decade or so, the number of easily preventable deaths easily exceeds
100,000.
The current heat wave in the
U.S. Midwest has maximum temperatures near 100 deg F, just a few degrees cooler
than the maximum temps in the European heat wave. I am experiencing little
discomfort and going outside to do yardwork in the evening when it cools down
to the upper 80s, with lots of sweating, but no ill effects. I plan to take a
bicycle ride in a cool, shady area this evening.
Europe has favored
alternative approaches to AC, such as awnings, better insulation, and passive
cooling. While these are all good, they can’t replace AC. In Europe, the
right-wing favors AC. The issue may propel far-right candidate
Marine La Pen in France. It is good that some environmentalists in the country
are beginning to realize that AC is indeed a necessity. Places like hospitals
and nursing homes are especially in need of adequate AC systems since the elderly
are most vulnerable. But more is needed at the governmental level in Europe to
embrace AC.
"We do not have a defined position on air
conditioning, neither for nor against," said Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, European
Commission spokesperson for climate.
I remember a day I was home a
few years ago when the power was out for an extended period after a storm, and
it hit about 97 degrees F. It was miserable. I went outside to the shade and
hung out there for a while. I was not wearing much clothing either.
While it is likely that anthropogenic climate change has contributed significantly to the rise in European heat waves, the answer to that is clearly not to restrict and make more difficult the use of life-saving AC.
In terms of risk, one could say that Europe is risk-averse when it comes to climate change risks, but is willing to endure more direct and immediate risk by avoiding the widespread adoption of AC. Climate change may kill, but one can hardly deny in this case that climate policy also kills.
References:
Huge
queues outside Lidl as Brits strip shelves of air con units on hottest June day
ever at 36.7C. Mark Duell, Eleanor Mann, and Jon Brady. Daily Mail. June 25,
2026. Huge
queues outside Lidl as Brits strip shelves of air con units on hottest June day
ever at 36.7C
Europe's
Deadly Aversion to Air Conditioning: Tens of thousands die in European summers
for want of a technology the rest of the rich world takes for granted. Roger
Pielke Jr. Substack. June 25, 2026. Europe's
Deadly Aversion to Air Conditioning
Make
Europe Cool Again. Kevin Kohler. Machinocene. July 4, 2025. Make Europe Cool
Again - by Kevin Kohler - Machinocene
How
Europe Became the World Champion of Heat Deaths: The continent with the lowest
number of hot days leads the world in heat mortality. Europe’s self-inflicted
aversion to air conditioning betrays a deeper hostility to energy and to
progress itself. Maarten Boudry. Quillette. 24 June 2026. Europe
Leads World in Heat Deaths Despite Fewer Hot Days
Air
conditioning: saving lives and accelerating net-zero: Air conditioning can save
lives, boost productivity and help the UK achieve net zero. Currently,
government regulation all but bans it. Ed Hezlet and Lauren Gilbert. Centre for
British Progress. July 25, 2025. Air
conditioning: saving lives and accelerating net-zero
Why
some Europeans resist air conditioning amid deadly heat waves. Leigh Kiniry.
CBS News. June 30, 2026. Why
some Europeans resist air conditioning amid deadly heat waves
The
most severe and extensive heatwave in Europe: hundreds dead, dozens drowned,
road closures, school and nuclear plant shutdowns. Carlos Fresneda. El Mundo. June
30, 2026. The
most severe and extensive heatwave in Europe: hundreds dead, dozens drowned,
road closures, school and nuclear plant shutdowns
Europe
suffers under rare heat wave. Statista. June 30, 2026. Europe
suffers under rare heat wave
Air
conditioning is fascist. The Daily Digest. July 1, 2026. Air
conditioning is fascist
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